UNVOTE:
So, I haven't had any sleep for the last 37 hours, but as I was laying in bed a second ago, something just occurred to me. I've been looking at all the wrong people.
massive isn't scum.
(And I don't think 50 Shades is either.)
And he's not scum for a few reasons. One is that there's a notable lack of a counterwagon or any real competing suspects/wagons today. The other is the stark contrast between what happened with the massive wagon yesterday and today. Yesterday, it never really got off the ground; the only people that really bought into it were Anti and Nero Cain. Now all sorts of people are crawling out of the woodwork to vote massive and he's already gotten to 5 votes
in only 6 pages and 4 realtime days
with no competing counterwagons
. There also hasn't been a change in the case on massive, other than perhaps the premature VT claim, but I don't think that's scummy anyway. It
has
to make you wonder.
There
is
an explanation for the day's occurrences.
MTD, wgeurts, and sthar8 are scum.
I already knew I had early concerns about wgeurts but I tabled them because he never seemed to be on Anti's radar for scum. He's scummy, though. Say what you want about
any
of his other behavior in this game, but this post (
Post 1156) is scum. It's pretty much an objective summary of massive's play this game with sparse references. None of it even
looks
right; some of the sentences ("He then starts using the "you have no reason to vote me" argument which is also (IMO) horribly scummy.") have this dangling reason that doesn't lead to the stated conclusoin. Overall, it's incredibly shoehorned and awkward and notably lacks any kind of thread of logic leading up to a satisfying conclusion of "massive is scum." It looks exactly like he cobbled something together in response to the criticism of his earlier vote being opportunistic. (On a side-note, I have no idea why he chose to spoiler it since it's a very manageable length anyway.)
I had confidence in sthar leading up to this point, but after little thought, I really don't have any reason to be. The massive push today is based on a lot of faulty arguments. He also hasn't been engaging us (especially Antihero) on Day 1, which is weird since he's been townreading us this whole time and we never seem to have been in sync reads-wise. That seems odd, considering how Chosen went. sthar being scum would also explain how the massive wagon took off as quickly as it did (as I already explained in the opening paragraph).
That's two scum on the wagon. I don't think 50 Shades or Nero are scum, so there's probably another off the wagon.
My bet's on MTD. There's ostensible criticism of the massive wagon, but nothing really substantial is really delineated in the thread in terms of that townread, which is odd considering that the size of the wagon. There's also a noticeable lack of a vote or an attempt to start a competing wagon so I'm guessing he's more than happy to just let this massive wagon roll along. This dichotomy he recently presented (Anen or wgeurts) is completely nonsensical and Anen is likely town anyway. Looking back at Day 1 activity, there's really nothing that inspires confidence.
There's only a couple flaws with this theory. One is that it could fall apart if there are only 2 mafia or a serial killer. I'm guessing that the presence of only one kill on Night 1 is a likely indicator that there's only one scum faction, though. And if Jingle really did randomize the setup, the likelihood of 2 T's or 4 T's being generated is much higher than 6 T's. (For there to be 6 T's, Jingle would have to get 6/7 numbers between 1-100 that fall between 1 and 50. Someone who has the time and/or inclination to do so can run a statistical significance test.) The other flaw is that it doesn't really give a satisfying explanation for why TSO was killed on Night 1. I'll see what Antihero thinks about all this. Right now, though, I have to get some sleep because I feel like I'm about to pass out at my computer.
VOTE: sthar8
-TTH
