Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[acryon]

Constantine/BMWS is far more likely than Riddleton/BMWS

the fuck?

I'm guessing you disagree. Use your words.

[borkjerfkin]

There aren't 4 scum? lol.

[acryon]

There aren't 4 scum? lol.

This was my response to him pre-flip. I already said that, I just wanted to get it out there since I got cut off by the lock before.

[Mathdino]

ty acryon so helpful
town mvp
let's lynch the remaining

one

TWO scum

Jk. But seriously, I kind of started today expecting you'd go for a speedlynch on Constantine and I just wouldn't reocmmend that.

BMWS cannot have been partners with Wisdom or Newbie because he was all confused about what happened when TTH thought Wisdom was a mason. If he was scum with either Wisdom or Newbie, he would've just asked in the scum thread.

[borkjerfkin]

Yes but he was commenting on a particular pairing, and...

you know what it doesn't even matter.

[borkjerfkin]

These are my tiers from most to least likely for scum #3

Dude it's probably Riddleton

Riddleton

If that doesn't pan out look here

Constantine

Swore this dude was town for how he interacted with Wisdom today but

acryon

If we get here something is seriously wrong

wgeurts, Mathdino, BMWS

No

Newbie

[Mathdino]

Also I will eat anyone who tries to use ANYTHING Wisdom said after the mason shitstorm started as evidence for anything. He knew he was on his deathbed, all that was probably WIFOM.

Edit: Good, we're in agreement. That's me, Mala, and bork for Riddleton, just need acryon to jump on board and we win.

VOTE: Riddleton

[borkjerfkin]

Part of my thing was that Riddleton has pretty much no interaction with Wisdom ever and avoids the wagon for (?)

[acryon]

ty acryon so helpful
town mvp
let's lynch the remaining

one

TWO scum

Jk. But seriously, I kind of started today expecting you'd go for a speedlynch on Constantine and I just wouldn't reocmmend that.

BMWS cannot have been partners with Wisdom or Newbie because he was all confused about what happened when TTH thought Wisdom was a mason. If he was scum with either Wisdom or Newbie, he would've just asked in the scum thread.

I know, not exactly insightful, and particularly irrelevant now; I just didn't want to leave a request un-answered.

I still think Constantine is most likely the last scum, but we could mis-lynch more than once and still win. It's almost an auto-win at this point.

I would prefer to talk a little more to be honest, but maybe it's better to not let scum muck up the water.

[borkjerfkin]

I want to make sure we're covering all of our bases, but I'm def. leaning riddleton

[Mathdino]

Just ignore everything Riddleton and Constantine say and we're good. Alright, lemme write you up a case on Riddleton. I really do want a perfect town victory, I've never survived to one of those.

[borkjerfkin]

I'm not really interested in a case

[borkjerfkin]

In fact don't write cases in general

[acryon]

BMWS cannot have been partners with Wisdom or Newbie because he was all confused about what happened when TTH thought Wisdom was a mason. If he was scum with either Wisdom or Newbie, he would've just asked in the scum thread.

I don't feel comfortable writing BMWS off as town. We already established there is no daytalk, so he couldn't have asked it during the day. And it's also completely possible for scum to feign confusion in that way to look innocent.

[acryon]

I'm sort of with bork on this. Even if Riddleton flips town, having him out of the way will make it significantly easier to actually see who the last one is. The less we give scum to work off of today, the better.

[borkjerfkin]

Can you guys give me second opinions about bmws interactions woth mala in twilight d1?

Like I just don't see that blood in the water reaction from a buddy of quickhammered scum

acryon, your thoughts on this?

[acryon]

Almost forgot.

VOTE: Riddleton

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: Because I'm a Lazy Mofo

Sorry for double post, but I don't think this is Catch 22. It's the pitfall of using AtE in games with (I presume) more logical players. wgeurts lost credibility the moment he self-voted, as does anyone outside of RVS (and some would say inside), so in this case I'm gonna have to defer to Wisdom's reasoning here: frustrated town is usually too frustrated to just go ahead and listen to everyone.

Also, awkward moment when we're all still tunneling wgeurts.

FinnLaw

, you probably didn't notice because I put it in the middle of a line, but I asked what your other reads were, if any.
The problem this game is I've got 4 suspects that I've created (Victor, wgeurts, TTH, Wisdom), but I'm really finding it difficult to even see more than 1 scum in there; I think if I had to pick, it'd be wgeurts-TTH, but even that seems a bit off to me. So let's go PoE.

I'm very much getting a townread on

Mala's

one liner reactions to everything.

blindmewithscience

I'm getting a townread on, he seems like he actaully wants to help and I feel like I'd notice from his first few posts if he was scum (he's very much new to forum mafia, and like I said, I know the guy).
Hmm,

acryon

. I'm a bit biased, because answering questions for other people was one of my problems as town early on. It's not helpful to interrogators but I do see it as trying to help with discussion. Townread on him.

Victor

is town due to the latter half of his ISO. I do hope he posts more results of his questioning though, otherwise I'm still gonna see how he acted in the first few pages as just throwing out suspicions.

Wisdom's

votepost was pretty much the main thing that made me suspect him. I can't see a Wisdom-wgeurts scumteam at all at the moment, so I'll reserve judgment on him until tomorrow. Town for now.

That leaves FinnLaw, TTH, NM, Silver, and Undertaker.

Undertaker

I'm obviously throwing out for now. Did an ISO on

NM

and I realised there's really not as much to discuss as I thought (still not sure what TTH is smoking).

Finn's

whole Catch 22 thing

kinda

leans town, but it also seems like it could be an AtE in defence of a scum-wgeurts (as in "we're being unfair to this guy, give him a chance"). There's also how he responded to wgeurts self-voting. I can see a Finn-wgeurts team. Lean null-scum for now.

TTH

I've already stated my thoughts on. Can't get a friggin read due to her playstyle. She's my only non-lurking nullread.

If you skimmed this post, this is the part where you start reading.

Which leaves us at

SilverWolf

, who I actually ISO'd 2nd or 3rd in order to put her in the townreads list. See, when I ISO people, I mostly look out for anything that was their original reasoning, anything they created. But then I noticed there was basically none in her ISO. Seriously, take a look at it. I'll be here when you get back. Or you could keep Silver's ISO on another tab while you read the below, since I don't expect you to click a dozen links.

Alright. 35 repeats what I said about reaction testing. 84 is literally "I agree". 85 and 86 are suspicion and a vote for Victor, I don't think I have to explain how this isn't new. 95 is literally repeating my (and possibly other's) reasoning for voting Victor. 121 is jumping on Mala's "Stop butting in, acryon, sheesh" train of thought. 135, repetition of wgeurts reasoning for voting Newbie. 207 is fencesitting on the me vs wgeurts issue. Free pass on 238 since I literally asked for her thoughts on Wisdom and NM. And finally, 257 (unvote yourself, wgeurts) was already said by Finn.

I spent most of the game under the impression Silver was being helpful and contributing, but there have been 0 no lines of reasoning in the ENTIRETY of the ISO. I think Silver is playing it safe, blending in. And with that I have my new 2nd highest suspect.

FoS: SilverWolf

. Someone let me know if I'm crazy on this by the way, that took a long time to do. Also open to defence on Silver's part, but honestly, more contribution from her will do more than responding to this post.

Edit: I like Victor's above post.

Spoiler: Only Directed To Newbie

I disagree on wgeurts but I can see where you're coming from, thanks. I do agree that it's very much doubtful they're both scum. I should point out though that focusing on one thing/person at a time is basically tunneling, which pretty much gets us nowhere and blinds us to other possible suspects. After all, there are 3 scum, and there's always the chance neither wgeurts nor Wisdom is one of them.

I'll take you at your word for now because I still think you're town and I still think Wisdom's town, haha. The bussing suspicion was derived entirely from the post you linked to; the fact that you're at risk if you mislynch really just doesn't need to be said, since that's true of pretty much everyone. If Wisdom flips town, I'll still think you're town. You should know that people bus a LOT nowadays, and a lot of the time scum like to stay off town wagons precisely so they're not blamed for it. It's all very WIFOMy and kinda pointless to discuss before D2. Honestly Newbie, I think your issue might be basing too much off of interactions and preconceived notions (Wisdom is scum, therefore the people voting him are town, etc). Scum behaviour is scum behaviour.

But hey, let's compromise

(this goes to everyone voting Wisdom)

. I think Wisdom is town and Silver is scummy independent of him. But I'm going to assume Wisdom is scum and try to take an objective view of this.

Open up this ISO of the two of them. I find it notable that they have ZERO interaction up until isolattion #42, where I had to literally ask Silver what she thought of Wisdom. Spoiler: She approves of him. Hell, even Wisdom is troubled by this (isolation #63). Note that I've pretty much been townreading Wisdom the whole game; if he's scum, he's only pointing out Silver because a wagon could easily form against her from my case while keeping me as a buddy.

So why then, does Silver decide to vote Wisdom instead of the dude who made a crap case against her? Answer: She recognises that Wisdom is bussing her and goes along with it because A. Wisdom is more likely than me to get lynched, and B. She wants towncred for going after scum (she got it from you, Newbie). Now, you may say that Silver just found Wisdom scummier, but everything that was said about Wisdom applies to me as well. Read the post. She didn't mention his votepost like everyone else did.

Not many other singular posts apply, I highly recommend just reading the ISO yourself and coming to a conclusion. How me-who-thinks-Wisdom-is-scum interprets it: Wisdom and Silver don't interact AT ALL until my case on Silver, which suddenly makes them start distancing each other to hell. Silver actually starts ignoring me and tunnels Wisdom for a page. They're banking on one of them getting lynched and the other getting MASSIVE towncred for it due to their bickering.

And yes, this is absolutely a 'damned if you do damned if you don't'. Silver is scummy enough IMO to transcend Wisdom's flip; if Wisdom flips scum, it points to Silver, and if he flips town, it negates your entire reason for a townread on her.

So let us come together, wgeurts-tunnelers, and Wisdom-tunnelers, lurkers and spammers, one-liner-ers and wallposters, let us come together to banish the wolf of silver hide from this town. /endrant
I'm welcome to reasonable critique of the above case, since I AM trying to put myself in a mindset that I wouldn't normally. However, I'd appreciate if you didn't discount it simply because of that.

Not enough to save him from his predecessor, no, and I'm also seeing some merit in the point with Riddleton defending Const.
The scumslip was if anything the straw that broke the camel's back. Eh, more like the 2 kg weight, but whatever.

Regardless, it's the best chance we have of a lynch hitting scum, IMO. I like to temporarily give the benefit of the doubt to replacements, but BMWS, lemme ask you:

Given all that we suspected SilverWolf for, has Riddleton

redeemed

his slot sufficiently to warrant not voting him this close to the deadline?

If the answer is no, I'd recommend switching your vote in the next 24 hours.

Here's where the meat of our Victor analysis is going to be.

Well Newbie, that explains your wallposting, haha. Are there any records left of one of your scum games and town games?

Hey Math, why so keen to get some early meta off Newbie?

I'm not sure what the problem is. I would think getting meta would be sharing useful information. I intend to look at meta of the players here. So even though you said you wanted to know why mathdino wanted that particular info. I guess I fail to see the problem with this and your explanation really didn't help me much. You are making way too much of a simple question as though you are looking for a reason to suspect someone. It's possible you just want to question Mathdino like you said, but this seems an odd thing to question him about. This is something else I am taking note of. FoS VictorDeAngelo

So do a lot of players, but I was wondering why he was looking to get meta off that player so early on. Often people looking for meta in the first few pages would have a particular reason, and I wanted to know his.

Mala looks pretty damn townie off her opening posts. I think I should be able to metaread you fairly well now, so I last long enough I will see if your scum.

Does not read as distancing, reads more like trying to appeal to Mala to keep Victor around.

I don't like Wguerts 105. This post doesn't fit the play at all.

As said, not bussing. 0 interaction with wgeurts.

Nor do I like Wisdom's 108 - particularly since he accused me of reaching and asking loaded questions earlier.

I like both the vote and point from Newbie in 124.

Awful rvs in 127.

@TTH are you really implying in 130 it's a waste time asking for reasoning because if a player is scum they will simply lie or have I misread that?

132 & 134 (this should really be one post anyhow ) Asks to meta read to help players understand his style and then tells everyone to ignore Newbie's meta because "the fact he's provided it probaly means he's aware of it and able to manipulate it."

If Wguerts is scum I can see Silverwolf being scum with him for 135.

Aha, okay. In one of his games he did exactly this. "If [townplayer] is scum, I can see [my scumbuddy] being scum with him." Not making me feel more comfortable about Riddleton.

Is the reason this game is so many pages because wgeurts is multiposting. Actually wgeuers and Newbie. Any chance we can keep it to one post at a time folks?

Blindmewithscience is sitting back too much with this post. Especially considering it's his only one outside of rvs.

Not bussing.

I still like my vote on Wguerts, but I really wish I had a second one for blindmewithscience. Not too sure on anyone else right now. A few players on the list need to show still so we'll see.

And like that - I am gone.

@Everyone

: Who would you want to lynch if not wgeurts or Wisdom? What are your thoughts on SilverWolf? (free pass on sheeping the above case; I think I kinda exhausted everything that can be said about her)

I can see Silverwolf as scum if Wgeurtes flips scum. But I'd rather lynch Wguertes first.

Red flag again; "I can see [scumbuddy] as scum if [townperson] is scum."

301 - Furthermore if Wisdom is town, I'm can see Silverwolf being scum after reading this.

Ooh, didn't catch this at first. Might have to rethink my read on Wisdom. However, I think it's notable that Victor rarely includes both his scumbuddies in the same sentence. I don't quite know what to make of this yet.

302 - Sure newbscum would do this. Particular since the scum don't have daychat so Wgeuertes has not had any opportunity to talk with his scumbuddies yet.

Yeeeeep wgeurts is town.

310 - Ok, I can totally see blindmewithscience as scum with Wgeurtes after this post. If Wgeurtes flips scum then he should be tomorrows flip. And if it is Wguetes + blindmewithscience then it's probably means it's not Silverwolf based on the second half of this post.

This seems to be what Mala caught. I think it's notable that he pointed out Silver/wgeurts first, however, and followed up with BMWS/wgeurts. Honestly, I'm more inclined to think of the first as deliberate linking and the latter as an afterthought. Not changing my read on BMWS.

325 - So you now want to wait and see more from Wgeurtes before making a decsion, but you were happily on his wagon a couple of days ago. I also don't like the way he's trying to band people together.

354 - Calling 262 coaching from Mala is a massive stretch. In fact I've spotted a few spots where I think there might be coaching but this is not one of them. Also roles that benefit from being lynched are called Jesters. You'll note there's none in this game if you checked the setup.

That said, I also don't like how Mala has fallen into the background. The last few posts have a distinct feel of holding back.

Sucks up to Mala and then mudslings her. Mala's town.

@Reinoe

- Any news on the Undertaker's replacement yet?

SilverWolf:

Jingle's advice to playing scum, which Silver reposted in her mafia QT. Notable parts:
"When in doubt, just wait until somebody else posts, and analyze what they said. Basically, try as hard as you can *not* to be the one sticking out of the crowd, especially *right* when people are looking for someone to scumhunt for."
"When in doubt, just wait until somebody else posts, and analyze what they said. Basically, try as hard as you can *not* to be the one sticking out of the crowd, especially *right* when people are looking for someone to scumhunt for."

OH GOD. JUST FOUND SOMETHING HUGE:

Third, if someone (me or otherwise) attacks you for something, don't waste your time being defensive.

Just politely explain why they're wrong (once, and *clearly*), and move on to what's important: looking for *actual* scum

. The reason for this is simple: Scum subconsciously focus on their own guilt, and feel they have to defend themselves; town know they are innocent and don't put much stock in others accusations. This is why overdefensiveness is a pretty reliable scum tell in newbie games.

One of {SilverWolf, Newbie} is scum, both for this unwarranted WKing of wgeurts and for jumping on the easy wagon with rehashed reasoning. I don't think they both are, seeing as they voted together in a short time using the same reasoning.

Actually, my reasoning is pretty solid and I'm sticking with it for now. I am not really caring for the sheeping comments from mathdino or the comments from you either so if you guys get me lynched, I'll flip town, and be out of the game and then you guys can go back to leaving the new players alone-newbie, wegeurts, myself and

actually go after real scum

, unless of course one or both of you is scum doing this in which case, it would make sense.

It gets worse:

Fourth: This is a tricky one, and you'll have to feel it for yourself the balance for how closely you want to follow it: Follow other players' leads (including mine), but don't make it obvious that that's what you're doing. Try not to vote for the same person as someone else *because of the same reasons*; find your own reasons if you can. There are exceptions to this rule, such as when there's not much else to nitpick about them, or when the reason is so amazingly bad that you can't *not* vote them for it. For instance, last game I won as scum, there was a guy who quick-hammered *two* townies before they could claim. It was a no-brainer to vote him. And *not* voting for somebody that scummy is also bad. So like I said, you'll have to feel this one out for yourself.

If it weren't for replacing out, this would be enough to confirm SilverWolf as scum to me. If she's scum, then she's purposefully making her behaviour toward Victor unreadable, so I won't focus much on that. She townreaded and then nullreaded her scumpartner in her scumgame, but Victor acted a lot scummier this game.

Riddleton:

Here is one of his scumgames he replaced into. His partners are Anatole and chaoslord. He starts off distancing his partner but then voting another 'scumread'. His first signature case was on acryon, but a lot of that is because of Riddleton's (also signature) hatred for NKA. His first post with both his scumpartners referenced. Scumreads one of them, sorta townreads the other. Then he outright makes a case against both his scumpartners and proceeds to powerbus the 2 of them, saying they're scumpartners, and flipping back and forth between voting them but being adamant that one of them gets lynched.

Just like NKA, I won't use meta as a justification for a read, but rather to look at consistencies. In this case? Riddleton's behaviour is not in any way inconsistent with his scum meta, and in his scumgame, the majority of his cases were against his scumpartners.

Also, I just realised: His 'scumslip' that I pointed out earlier? Well, it ONLY works if Victor is town. Since Victor flipped scum, it confirms that Riddleton just made a normal mistake there.
So why is Riddleton so hung up on it? Answer: He's advocating for a PL of himself because he knows that'll never happen, and it gives him towncred to talk about his own lynch.

Riddleton's behaviour makes it unlikely to me that he's scum with Constantine. I still don't enjoy having Constantine in the game, but I think in light of the above, I'm willing to switch my vote.

UNVOTE: Constantine
VOTE: Riddleton

[borkjerfkin]

Just ignore everything Riddleton and Constantine say and we're good. Alright, lemme write you up a case on Riddleton.

I mean listen to yourself here:

"I'm going to go and look for evidence to fit a conclusion I have already arrived at"

This is confirmation bias, and it's dangerous.

p-edit: or go do it anyway

[Mathdino]

GODDAMMIT SPOILER TAGS

Edit: Actually, I did a bit of ISOing last night and I came to the conclusion it was Riddleton based on Wisdom's behaviour.

[borkjerfkin]

Also we have a whole slew of early game Wisdom interactions that we should look at too.

[acryon]

Can you guys give me second opinions about bmws interactions woth mala in twilight d1?

Like I just don't see that blood in the water reaction from a buddy of quickhammered scum

acryon, your thoughts on this?

Eh, I've seen it both as town and scum, so it's entirely null to me. Twilight is also a great opportunity to gain town-cred exactly how BMWS did. Commenting after the fact almost always ends up making you look back, but you can gain serious town-points by appearing upset at a quick-lynch. Interestingly enough, the flip ends up being mostly irrelevant in how people view the emotional response there.

[borkjerfkin]

Also I'm sorry if people are still butthurt that I outed the team but I'm not certain we'd have gotten the Wisdom lynch without it.

[Mathdino]

You made the right move. Like I was saying while flailing in twilight, the game makes 0 sense if Wisdom is town, given your outing.

[acryon]

Also I'm sorry if people are still butthurt that I outed the team but I'm not certain we'd have gotten the Wisdom lynch without it.

I actually agreed with the outing of the team there. Things were getting incredibly mucky, especially since more than one person thought they knew the mason-team and were wrong, which is actively bad for town as they put their trust in someone who is scum.