Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[Mathdino]

I forgot to unvote.
UNVOTE:
lol

[wgeurts]

The Undertaker is friend of mine who I tried to get into mafia, he joined this game however went to Iceland for a week. (He also suddenley started saying mafia must suck, it's a forum game). He however said to me that he's "Something to do with town". Now unless he's bullcrapping on me then I believe him (however he does that a lot). So then constantine replaced into his slot, I at first thought that constantine was scum however in an attempt at getting him to give mafia another chance he said he was town. Hence my read on constantine changes pretty dramatically. Please don't mod-kill me for this.

That and the victor vote, acryon knows constantine is an easy person to frame. He's scum, quick-lynch him.

[reinoe]

MOD STUFF

Thread unlock in...
(expired on 2014-11-10 23:00:00)

[reinoe]

MOD STUFF

Thread unlock in...
(expired on 2014-11-10 23:00:00)

St. Constantine the Hermit and wgeurts,

BOTH VANILLA TOWNIES

,

indulge in drunken antics and knock each other overboard!!! They're quickly eaten by two sharks! Rufus...


and Francis...

The entire group along with the cruising staff give 0 fucks and use it as an excuse to keep everyone entertained! The day continues...with Brunch! Finally!

MOD STUFF

Undertaker's slot for discussing ongoing games (sorry Constantine, you had no say in what happened) and wgeurts for using out of game knowledge to influence the game over a long period of time. wgeurts may yet be turned into a neutral survivor...

[Mathdino]

borkjerfkin, I'm going to leave it up to you to write a Newbie towncase. If someone votes her in LyLo we're screwed. Alternatively, we could all just agree that a Newbie vote is a scumclaim, but I need you to go back through Newbie's ISO and make sure that she's town outside of her Wisdom interaction.

acryon, BMWS, it's one of us 3. And assuming bork or Newbie dies in LyLo, it's going to be me against one of you if we don't catch scum today. acryon, please go over Victor/Wisdom/me, and Victor/Wisdom/BMWS, and tell me what you find. If you're town, do it without confbias, please.

BMWS, uh, do whatever it is you do.

[blindmewithscience]

BMWS, uh, do whatever it is you do.

Uh, sure...
I'll just go ahead and ISO Newbie.

[Mathdino]

Uh, no. Newbie is pretty much definitely town. If you're town, your job is to decide between me and acryon. I'm leaving bork to Newbie because he has far less information than each of us do.

[blindmewithscience]

How does Bork have less information? Pls explain.
If I'm deciding between you and acryon , I'd vote aceyon for now. I'll go through Both of you though, trying to find scum without confbias.

[Mathdino]

Everyone knows bork is town.
Everyone knows Newbie is almost definitely town.
Yet I'm the only one who knows I'm town, and the same applies to one of you or acryon.

In essence, the 3 of us only have to look at 2 other players, while bork and Newbie have to go over 3.

[Mathdino]

BMWS's first mention of Victor and Wisdom. Pretty much just summarises actions so far, pretty null. Wisdom asks if BMWS has his own thoughts on this. Could be taken as coaching, but otherwise not overly interesting. Victor responds saying he's "holding back too much" in that post and says he wishes he had another vote, but otherwise doesn't cast much other suspicion. Notable that he did the same to wgeurts (his vote) and Wisdom.

BMWS's 241 is a pretty damn townish response to Victor asking him about wgeurts, doesn't seem like someone being interrogated by a scumpartner. Then in 310 BMWS states growing suspicion on both SilverWolf and Wisdom after they argue. Wisdom responds in 319 taunting BMWS to jump on his wagon. Discrepancy with how he acted toward Victor; note that Wisdom also taunted wgeurts earlygame.

The "two sides to this town" post summarises how the game basically became me/Wisdom/Victor vs Finn/Silver/Newbie/TTH/Mala/wgeurts/NM, and discusses how he'd consider himself more a part of the former group. See, while I can see scum voting with their teammates, I don't think it'd make any sense to do it so explicitly, seeing as it'd essentially lead us right to the team. 333 has Wisdom just asking what the point of the recap even was. A lot of Wisdom's questions toward BMWS seem like coaching, interestingly. Wisdom's posting points more toward BMWS/Wisdom than BMWS's does. Can't tell if this was on purpose.

In 356 we have Victor's classic "If [partner] is [alignment], [townsperson] is [alignment]." He did that to Wisdom. However, as we've seen, wgeurts and Silver are both clear, so whether or not this leads to BMWS is questionable. "If Wgeurtes flips scum then [BMWS] should be tomorrows flip". Hm.

BMWS's 387 has a summary of his thoughts on wgeurts and Wisdom, arguing that they're on opposite sides and thus because wgeurts leans scum, Wisdom must be scum. The odd thing about this is if wgeurts ended up actually being the lynch, which was fairly plausible, it'd basically lead straight to Wisdom D2 and then Victor given the already large suspicions on him.

bork, do you think this has any element of scum motivation? I can't tell here.

BMWS elaborates on this in this post. Then he does it again here, repeatedly talking about the arguments against Wisdom being legitimate although wgeurts is still far scummier because ~reasons~.

So later on, Wisdom criticises the Constantine wagon saying he's 'annoying and hypocritical but most likely town'. Clearly true. Note however that this was directly after my and wgeurts's votes on Const.

I believe I went over BMWS's commentary on Victor in a previous post, so skipping that.

bork, did Mala have any more commentary on BMWS's response to her hammer? I think her input would be good here to finish up D1 analysis of him.

D2, BMWS's first content post questions Wisdom and points out that he literally used the phrase "actual scum" that I found in Silver's meta, but goes on to say that he's not seeing Wisdom-scum. His next post, 1594 states a null tell on Wisdom, and then a bit later 1624 questions Constantine as to what exactly makes Wisdom town, refusing to listen to the answer of 'gut'. Funny thing: "I'm remembering him saying that he caught Mala's softclaim during D1 twilight." See, BMWS was under the impression that Wisdom caught the softclaim during twilight itself, when in reality Wisdom caught it after I told him to ISO Mala. If BMWS was scum, he'd have known that Wisdom didn't catch that in the moment because of the scum PT. Dunno what to make of this.

Thoughts, bork/Newbie?

Lastly, I know I said to ignore Wisdom after L-1 but this post is particularly notable for mentioning both acryon and BMWS. He goes after Constantine and BMWS for being overly neutral on him and townreads acryon for tunneling him. Then asking me to do cases on Constantine/BMWS and Riddleton/BMWS, ending the day saying scum is Const/BMWS.

Last post is just 1821 which is BMWS putting Const at L-1 and telling the town not to hammer until Const checks in. Townpoints there.

No verdict until the acryon notes.

[Mathdino]

So later on, Wisdom criticises the Constantine wagon saying he's 'annoying and hypocritical but most likely town'. Clearly true. Note however that this was directly after my and

wgeurts's

BMWS's votes on Const.

FTFMe

[borkjerfkin]

I am being kept alive because my reads are (were?) wrong.

Also this game has set a new precedent for people doing stupid shit

So thanks for that.

[acryon]

Ugh, definitely not what I was expecting to come back to. Obviously going over things again and I'll have a case up in a little bit.

[borkjerfkin]

cases are for chumps

[borkjerfkin]

In fact, who are you writing your case on

[acryon]

I thought Constantine was for sure the last scum, so obviously I needed to re-evaluate and establish a new idea of who the last scum is.

BMWS

This one is certainly a bit tough, because of BMWS general absence in the early part of day 1.
-His general recap post in 163 includes these lines: “Wgeurts voted Wisdom

supposedly

to get us out of RVS. Now, he unvoted after receiving some pressure, but his

weird

behavior sparked lots of debate” and “Also, VictorDeAngelo

appeared

to question Mathdino's desire for a meta.” The main things I want to point out here are the bolded words. Now, I do think BMWS has been a lot more subtle about the way he has played this scum-game, and I think here is an example. He is attempting to remain objective, but his use of ‘supposedly’ and ‘weird’ cast doubt on Wgeurts in the first part, and his use of ‘appeared’ in the second seems to try and say that maybe Victor didn’t do that. He didn’t

appear

to question his desire for a meta, he questioned his desire for a meta.
-165 from Wisdom then prods for more clear statements from BMWS.
-213 now has Victor disliking BMWS’s post as “sitting back.” Says he wishes he had a second vote for BMWS. He conveniently doesn’t, so BMWS remains without any real pressure from Victor.
-BMWS posts again in 225, but only addresses and votes wguerts, Victor’s primary suspect.
-241 actually looks pretty town, but given it came from a question from Victor, I think that’s exactly what they were going for.
-In 310 BMWS comes and comments on SW-scum after Victor and Wisdom made note of it. This is now the second time BMWS “joined” a wagon after Victor/Wisdom voted/made comments about it. The momentum remained with the wgeurts wagon at this time, but this is clearly an example of the three of them laying a foundation for a future lynch or alternate lynch in case wgeurts doesn’t pan out.
-325 has BMWS addressing Wisdom re: the Wgeurts wagon. The way he addresses him is definitely a little odd. Normally, someone would follow something like “You seem wholeheartedly convinced in wgeurts' scumminess” with “so why exactly is that? You need to give us something better than that”, as opposed to “I'd say wait until he posts again with content that can help us make a decision”. I would say what strikes me as off here is that he doesn’t use this opportunity to scum-hunt Wisdom, but instead takes this weird passive approach.
-In 356 Victor says “Ok, I can totally see blindmewithscience as scum with Wgeurtes after this post. If Wgeurtes flips scum then he should be tomorrows flip.” What is convenient about this post is that he is simultaneously calling bussing and exonerating BMWS, knowing that a wgeurts flip would turn town.
-445 sees BMWS doing a somewhat similar thing, saying that the Wisdom wagon has some merit, but the wgeurts one is much better. This is a common scum-tell.
-685 shows that BMWS doesn’t know who the mason-team is. I didn’t know either, but I didn’t ask questions because I know it is bad for town. BMWS did ask, and I think was hoping for someone to say something that would make it clear so the scum-team knows for sure.
-I’ve already commented on his twilight comments, but in short I don’t think they are anything more than null. Twilight is an excellent time to comment, because you are able to look town criticizing the hammer, which is obviously something he couldn’t do if he waited until after the flip.
-Not much interaction for a long time after this, with only posts from Wisdom. Wisdom comments in 1102 that the twilight comments from BMWS aren’t bad, and that he is unlikely to be scum(given Mala-scum, which Wisdom was pushing).
-BMWS is back in 1182, saying he doesn’t see the Wisdom scum, but also questioning Wisdom on his dislike of the Victor lynch.
-Lastly, Wisdom leaves us with the thought that Constantine and BMWS are scum. I would be very surprised if one of those weren’t true, and given Constantine-town, BMWS is scum.

VOTE: Blindmewithscience

[acryon]

I started to work on my Mathdino read to see if I could find anything re: Wisdom/Victor, but it was terrible, so I have chosen to exclude it. The only way to make that case worth something would be with confbias and some great suspension of disbelief, and I think that would be bad for town.

I still don't feel completely comfortable clearing Newbie, because if somehow we don't win following a potential BMWS flip, it comes down to Me/Mathdino/Newbie. In that case, I feel like it has to be Newbie. Mathdino is just not scum. I'm not dumb enough to get to LyLo and not still consider it a possibility, but at this point, given BMWS-town (very unlikely), I think Newbie is far more likely to be scum than Mathdino.

[borkjerfkin]

If I have one problem with Mathdino is that he pushed town literally all game until my Wisdom thing.

[acryon]

If I have one problem with Mathdino is that he pushed town literally all game until my Wisdom thing.

That's true, but unfortunately pushing town alone isn't a scum-tell, and you obviously know that. I've definitely been involved in only town-lynches the first few days of a game, this one included. Even when your reasoning is sound(which I think his has been and I've agreed with mostly), sometimes you are just wrong.

[acryon]

But, as I said before, part of this theme is clearly understanding that you can be wrong, and I'll admit there is a possibility that I am about Mathdino, and if I am, truly GG.

[borkjerfkin]

Still can't shake my gut that 899+ is BMWS trying to figure out mala

[borkjerfkin]

it does not seem to be being done for towncred

[acryon]

I completely understand your gut feeling there, and I was honestly torn on it initially, but to me it was ultimately a null/lean scum-motivation. I'm willing to admit that I could be wrong, but I also know sometimes gut feelings are wrong.

[acryon]

@Mod

: Is the countdown in 1817 the right one? Just double-checking.

To that end, we have lots of time to discuss, so as long as we don't rush into anything, I think we will get there.

[borkjerfkin]

but to me it was ultimately a null/lean scum-motivation.

You think that particular interaction with Mala leans scum? Why