Open 579: Pick Your (Chocolate) Power -- Game Over

[Mathdino]

wgeurts

: why the fuck did i call him town (note to self: go find out why)
i was expecting to write a towncase on him
goddammit
134 was a sketchy unvote that seemed concerned about people's perception of him. Then he called Flubber's vote on Amy opportunistic. But then I did a thing and ctrl+F'd "Amy" in his ISO. Guess what? I found a whole lot of him talking about Amy's wagon and votes on Amy but NOT ONCE did he give a single read on her. And then in 763 he encourages votes on Amy but still gives no thoughts on her.

What's your read on Amy? Not her replacement, what's your read on her?

This overconfidence on Siveure is exactly the thing I was seeing in his scum game. And then his response to my argument in 379... even if his misconception was true, it's still the strangest thing to scumread and it's pretty opportunistic. His conception was essentially "You call me town and are buddying me but you say I'm scum no matter what Siv flips." Like these are fundamentally incompatible and there's no scum motivation in doing those things in the first place.
In 441 he gives his top scumreads: {Siveure, Romitelli, Adrien}. The first 2 are town, haven't read Adrien so idk about that. Then in 445 he follows up on his earlier reads list with some meta on Flubber, Siv, Romi, and Adrien. A lot of it was without substance honestly and was entirely unconvincing. Seems more for the purpose of justifying wgeurts's reads than for presenting said reads to the thread.
Then his comments on me weird me out: "Damn it dino, don't make us lynch you in my third(?) game with you." "You're doing a good job of making people suspicious, I think it's however incorrect. The amount of effort you're putting in would be odd as scum."
His unvote and vote of Siveure actually ring pretty town to me. No one voted Siveure in between, and all that really did happen to influence that was Siveure wagon hopping. So it DOES make sense from a town POV.
D2 play: I have no idea what the fuck he's doing. Like almost every single post is bad or scummy in some way. I can expand on this if anyone likes but his D2 play is material that'd make me go for the "too scummy to be scum" argument. I'm not sure what to think. So I'll keep my vote on Ankamius and leave wgeurts as actually way scummier than I thought he was.

1. Self conscious early behaviour.
2. Incredibly sketchy behaviour toward Amy and her wagon, seemed to spend more time talking about votes on her than Amy herself.
3. Overconfidence meta.
4. Opportunism.
5. Repeatedly talking about all the meta he'd eventually go drudge up for people... ends up coming up with one or two sentences on each with no evidence nor compelling arguments.
6. Weirdness surrounding me in late D1 (and his misconception of me after my draft order spec post).
7. Literally all of his D2 play. ISO it. It's crap.

[Alchemist21]

You know I'd have those little red laser beams pointing at me if I said I would do something and then didn't. I'll vote Flubber while Green catches up. I didn't vote Flubber at first because of a recurring problem with my associative reads - I form scumpairs, with 1 being scum and the other actually being town, and I'll end up pushing the town player and subsequently clearing the scum player. I decided to try doing things the other way around this time, as illogical as that sounds.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Flubber

[Flubbernugget]

Holy mother of overexplanation/appease.

Dino's interactions with gc were starting to bother me (unless I really did miss a guilty) but fucking nobody appeases scum like that.

So we lynch adrian, alchemist, and by then the setup should solve itself.

E.Z.

[Mathdino]

So because I dont feel like policying lynchbait, Im appeasing Venrobs slot? I dont understand what youre trying to say.

It was a standard replacement reaction test. GC surpassed expectations.

[droog]

You guys know
I played along with Dino too
Right?

Oh mod just asked if I wanted in since I volunteered earlier.

On phone, haven't read game, but I'm VT.

So what's droog's line tomorrow when I flip green?

?

[wgeurts]

I'm rereading everyones ISO, I apologise for my poor play day 2. For the time being UNVOTE: venrob

[Mathdino]

You guys know
I played along with Dino too
Right?

Oh mod just asked if I wanted in since I volunteered earlier.

On phone, haven't read game, but I'm VT.

So what's droog's line tomorrow when I flip green?

?

Yeah, thanks for that, you confirming the story really sold it to GC (I hope).

If GC is town, droog is likely also town.

[wgeurts]

I'm sorry my day 2 play has been absolutely rubbish, my holidays nearly are starting so I've got time to make a more extensive analysis of each individual.

Flubbernugget

17 - This is his random vote on alchemist.

18, 23 and 132 - These are all fluff.

146 - Votes amy in what looks like a pressure vote. It looks opportunistic as amy already had 4 votes so it feels a bit off. Slightly scummy.

147 - Fluff.

251 - Basically naked votes me using the excuse of sheeping Mathdino as he's his strongest town read. This also feels off as I had 4 votes at that point and he has now been on the 2 main wagons without any good reasoning. More scummy.

253 to 411 - Fluff.

412 - Through this post we see that Flubbernugget thinks Davesaz and Siveure were scum. Noted.

428 - After vaguely calling Siv scum in his last post (While pressure was rising on him) he now calls him scum

while siveure has 5 votes on him

. Why doesn't flubber vote siv there and then?
It looks like he's setting up for the mis-lynch from a scum-perspective.

431, 438 and 469 - Weak one-line reasoning attempting to justify his Siv scum read. It's weird he isn't voting him.

(Only noting posts of worth from off here.)

615 - If flubber is scum this could be seen as a possibility to set up for a wagon hop to Alchemist if the Siv wagon dies. Alchemist had 2 votes by that point and would of been the most likely counter-wagon. He's still voting me with no reasoning although he's expressed many scum reads.

820 - Votes Adrien without any reasoning in a naked vote.

835 - Now this is odd, he just quit all the main wagons at that point. This doesn't add up with scum theory.

896 - He adds Venrob to his scum list. Well, he's back to his scum looking self again. This feels like setting up to go either way with Adrien or Venrob both the main suspects besides me.

Bleh, either really bad town play or scum. I'm making a list of who's most likely scum with scum at the top:

1. Flubbernugget

He's the first on it so this may change.

[wgeurts]

Droog

8 - His RVS vote on Anen.

13 and 20 - He's already analysing wagons and votes. Small town points here.

31 and 37 - He's contributing to setup speculation. I don't know why people add reads to this as scum could also just join in to look like they are contributing. Null.

61 - Backs up his earlier analysis methods. Feels town but is really null.

99 - Hinting that he feels something's off with Dino's posts. Dino wasn't a suspect at that point so this grants very small town points.

101 - I disagree with him but he's actually looking through posts trying to find stuff.

111 - This is a good post. I agree with him that setup spec isn't automatically town-motivated.

124 - Don't know what to make of this. He's sheeping a case saying he'll vote Dino if he does anything more scummy. The scum perspective here would be that he tried to get a Dino wagon going however it didn't catch so he's giving up and the town one would be he's not convinced himself of his Dino read. He votes Amy while she's at 3 votes here.

149 - The town theory seems to add up to this. He's unconfident in the Amy wagon so he says he will quit if it reaches L-1. I find it hard to give a scum motivation for this.

237 - This could be given a scum motivation, it could be possibly seen as setting up to hop onto my wagon (2 votes) if amy's fails.

238 and 304 - More evidence that he's actually analysing everyone, something I see as a town-tell. His loss of trust in his Amy read feels natural and Anen wasn't a tempting wagon for scum at that point.

371 - He's showing his scum-Dino read again here. Dino was under (nearly) no suspicion at that point so this whole Dino thing would only really make sense as bussing if Dino and Droog were both scum. That would explain the not actually hard pushing that read.

498 - Pushing Dino slightly. He pushes more over his ext coming posts which I won't comment on.

548 - This feels good.

577 - Finally votes Dino, I really doubt a Dino-Droog team.

583 - I'm starting to fully agree.

652 - This is also a good vote.

I've went through his D2 posts as well but it's consistent with his play so far, he's town.

1. Flubbernugget
   
2. Droog

[wgeurts]

Also if this isn't all logical welcome to my thoughts translated in English.

[wgeurts]

Alchemist

11 - RVS vote on Dino.

51 - Looks town motivated at first glance however it is null. I agree with his statements on the RVS votes on me and flubber though.

62 - Odd, doesn't look like a RV. I'll look out for an explanation for this naked vote on me. Still null as this is the first vote on me and he hasn't yet explained it.

88 - It was a pressure vote, still null though. However I do like how he's trying to make discussion.

93 - This makes sense and I feel like it's town with his earlier posts.

177 - This post also feels town although he is mistaken with me being scum and shooting me as vengeful.

209 - Here alchemist is showing doubt on the amy wagon. It also feels slightly town.

233 - Alchemist questions me again on a contradiction of mine. He's not taking others thoughts on me and is pushing me for what he thinks looks scum to him about me. I like that.

272 - Could be scum just going for an easy vote, I'm unsure.

278 and 282 - His reasons for voting Siveure seem more legit than many other people who were/went on the wagon.

334 - This looks odd to me. It just feels off.

General - His push on siv doesn't feel like a scum pushing a mis-lynch. He seemed rather confident in it and it looks like (a possibly conf-biased) town pushing a read their convinced of. I doubt scum would so blatantly push it,


747 - I disagree here and I believe that we should remember this post if Alchemist flips scum for some reason.

758 - Unlikely Dino/Alchemist team?

803 - He's got a good point on Adrien here.

846 - His whole droog-scum read feels town however I disagree with it.

864 - He let that read drop a little quickly.

998 - His points on Flubber are true.

In general alchemist feels town although a lot of his posts feel a little off. He's less town than droog so:

1. Flubbernugget
   
2. Alchemist
   
3. Droog

[wgeurts]

Ankimus [s

Hayate[/s]]

Hayate

29 - RV on Flubbernugget

34 - This is an odd one and can be views from two perspectives: Scum trying to look town by joining and investing effort into analysis or town investing effort as a genuine town. I can't tell from this alone.

42 - (S)he seems rather eager to participate in this discussion, same as above.

49 - Seems a little fabricated? Or not? I really don't know.

Hayate gets replaced with ankimus

297 - Two of her scum reads are town and she's defending amy. She scum reads Siv (amy and siv were both at 3 votes). If he flips scum we should seriously consider lynching amy's slot.

311 - Votes siv putting him at 4 votes. His reasons for doing so are really weak however. Slight scum.

366 - Venrob goes from being town to scum in this post. Venrob wasn't being voted at that point so this looks good although it's odd he doesn't change votes.

383 - Really terribly explained Davesaz scum read. Seems fake.

447 - Seems like she's refusing to explain the siv scum read/vote. Possibly because it isn't actually real?

General- He conveniently lurks through Siv's lynch with a vote on him.

878 - Votes me while there are no other votes on me. Seems slightly town motivated.

He's a lot less town then Alchemist but isn't at all as scummy as Flubber so:

1. Flubber
   
2. Ankimus
   
3. Alchemist
   
4. Droog

[wgeurts]

I'll place my vote here for now, this may change:
VOTE: FlubberNugget

[wgeurts]

VictorDeAngblabla replacement of Amy

Amy

40 - mm, odd.
No RV and she straight away attacks Dino with some weird setup spec rant. M'kay.

47 - Apparently you can't form reads 47 posts into a game and it isn't even worth trying. Newb tells here along with 40 so there could be a possible newb scum here.

67 - Actually she could be a newb town, this post fits that theory.

198 - Here we can see that she is an *online* mafia newb. I'll keep that in mind then for her coming posts.

201 - This feels painfully like me in my first newbie game (although I was scum ) I kept summing up why I was being voted and (In my opinion) completely refuting all the arguments posed.

206 - She has a null siv read. I will remember this.

287 - OMGUS on Anenin(eninenan?), doesn't feel like scum to me this post.

General - VLA up till day 2, this sucks as it would of provided a lot of information.

762 - She seems to have read the game due to her comments at the bottom of this post. Why has she dropped her Anen read and why is Dino suddenly scum?
She's blatantly sheeping me and I don't like it. Slightly scummy.

VDA replaces Amy

944 - Good starting catch up. Feels kind of town but I want more posts from him asap.

This slot feels rather null to me, I'm going to await VDA posts and I'll willing pressure him if he doesn't.

1. Flubber
   
2. Ankimus
   
3. VDA
   
4. Alchemist
   
5. Droog

[wgeurts]

Oi, mathdino your online speak to meh

[Mathdino]

beetlejuice beetlejuice

you called?

I'm only half online, doing laundry, playing Civ, checking MS every now and then for your new case.

Anything in particular?

[Mathdino]

I mean I guess I could rip them apart.
Not a bad way to wait for the wash.

On Flubbernugget

: This case is mostly IIoA, I mean hell, the "adds Venrob to scum list" (post 896) thing isn't even that scummy, and his suspicion is the opposite of well founded. The main issues with your points here is you haven't shown why it's inconsistent with town and you haven't shown the scum motivation in his multiple naked votes which boil down to playing like a jester. Because that's exactly what he's been doing, and you're reading him as someone who gives more shits about this game than he probably does.
A Flubber vote is a policy vote. Moving on.

On droog

: Meh, nothing to really comment on. I find it interesting that going after someone not widely scumread is a towntell in your book. I don't find that true at all.

On Alchemist

: Me reading your case on Alch:
"wat"
"wat hows that null"
"wat"
"hows that feel town wat"
>it just feels off
"WAT"
"no reads here"
"no read on this post
"wow 3 posts in a row with no analysis can we hit four OHMIGOD WE HIT 5 THAT'S A NEW RECORD FOLKS"

[wgeurts]

beetlejuice beetlejuice

you called?

I'm only half online, doing laundry, playing Civ, checking MS every now and then for your new case.

Anything in particular?

So yer a civ player?

[Mathdino]

Alchemist

11 -

RVS vote on Dino.

51 -

Looks town motivated at first glance

however it is null.

I agree with his statements on the RVS votes on me and flubber though.

62 -

Odd, doesn't look like a RV. I'll look out for an explanation for this naked vote on me. Still null as this is the first vote on me and he hasn't yet explained it.

88 -

It was a pressure vote, still null though.

However I do like how he's trying to make discussion.

93 -

This makes sense and I feel like it's town with his earlier posts.

177 -

This post also feels town

although he is mistaken with me being scum and shooting me as vengeful.

209 -

Here alchemist is showing doubt on the amy wagon.

It also feels slightly town.

233 -

Alchemist questions me again on a contradiction of mine. He's not taking others thoughts on me and is pushing me for what he thinks looks scum to him about me. I like that.

272 -

Could be scum just going for an easy vote, I'm unsure.

278 and 282 -

His reasons for voting Siveure seem more legit than many other people who were/went on the wagon.

334 -

This looks odd to me. It just feels off.

General - His push on siv doesn't feel like a scum pushing a mis-lynch. He seemed rather confident in it and it looks like (a possibly conf-biased) town pushing a read their convinced of. I doubt scum would so blatantly push it,

747 -

I disagree here and I believe that we should remember this post if Alchemist flips scum for some reason.

758 -

Unlikely Dino/Alchemist team?

803 -

He's got a good point on Adrien here.

846 -

His whole droog-scum read feels town

however I disagree with it.

864 -

He let that read drop a little quickly.

998 -

His points on Flubber are true.

In general alchemist feels town although a lot of his posts feel a little off. He's less town than droog so:

1. Flubbernugget
   
2. Alchemist
   
3. Droog

in green is "i agree" "i disagree"
in red is "this is null", "this feels X" with no explanation, and general useless statements and IIoA
in bold is actual reads and analysis

congrats wgeurts
nice pbpa

[Mathdino]

Ankimus [s

Hayate[/s]]

Hayate

29 -

RV on Flubbernugget

34 -

This is an odd one and can be views from two perspectives: Scum trying to look town by joining and investing effort into analysis or town investing effort as a genuine town. I can't tell from this alone.

"This could be scum but it could also be town", nice analysis there

42 -

(S)he seems rather eager to participate in this discussion, same as above.

49 -

Seems a little fabricated? Or not? I really don't know.

lol'd

Hayate gets replaced with ankimus

297 -

Two of her scum reads are town and she's defending amy. She scum reads Siv (amy and siv were both at 3 votes). If he flips scum we should seriously consider lynching amy's slot.

red because it says nothing about ank's alignment

311 -

Votes siv putting him at 4 votes. His reasons for doing so are really weak however.

Slight scum.

366 -

Venrob goes from being town to scum in this post.

Venrob wasn't being voted at that point so this looks good

although it's odd he doesn't change votes.

383 -

Really terribly explained Davesaz scum read. Seems fake.

447 -

Seems like she's refusing to explain the siv scum read/vote. Possibly because it isn't actually real?

General- He conveniently lurks through Siv's lynch with a vote on him.

878 -

Votes me while there are no other votes on me. Seems slightly town motivated.

He's a lot less town then Alchemist but isn't at all as scummy as Flubber so:

1. Flubber
   
2. Ankimus
   
3. Alchemist
   
4. Droog

blue is my own edits

[wgeurts]

Anen*n*n*n

36 - Random vote on Siv.

83 - This catch up seems good and has no bug flaws or the likes. Very slightly town for some odd gut reason.

98 - His case on Amy is actually pretty good for an early game case. It's better than most of the ones up till then at least. However I think he's missing that Amy's a newb.

118 - He is able to quote and explain his case. He does seem rather confident though, this may later cause conf-bias.

156 - Also not a bad post.

182 - It becomes clear he's considered her being a newb.

222 - Can't see why I was scum reading him (I think I was) this is once again a logical post. I'm leaning town on Anenenn from off here.

321 - Could be a post as to get reasons to vote one of the main wagons. I dunno.

352 - Possibly null reading siveure as to set up to vote him.

389 - This is a good post, I think it's town.

529 - Setting himself up to vote basically any of the main suspects.

728 - I don't like this vote at all.

795, 806 and 843 - "Oh Shyt"

891 - Finding it hard to find a scum-motivation for this vote.

Less confident he's town than Alchemist:

1. Flubbernugget
   
2. Ankimus
   
3. VDA
   
4. Anen
   
5. Alchemist
   
6. Droog

[Mathdino]

VictorDeAngblabla replacement of Amy

Amy

40 -

mm, odd.
No RV and she straight away attacks Dino with some weird setup spec rant. M'kay.

47 -

Apparently you can't form reads 47 posts into a game and it isn't even worth trying. Newb tells here along with 40 so there could be a possible newb scum here.

67 -

Actually she could be a newb town, this post fits that theory.

198 - Here we can see that she is an *online* mafia newb. I'll keep that in mind then for her coming posts.

201 -

This feels painfully like me in my first newbie game (although I was scum ) I kept summing up why I was being voted and (In my opinion) completely refuting all the arguments posed.

why are you :|ing at catching your own newbscum tells

206 -

She has a null siv read. I will remember this.

287 -

OMGUS on Anenin(eninenan?), doesn't feel like scum to me this post.

General - VLA up till day 2, this sucks as it would of provided a lot of information.

762 -

She seems to have read the game due to her comments at the bottom of this post. Why has she dropped her Anen read and why is Dino suddenly scum?
She's blatantly sheeping me and I don't like it. Slightly scummy.

VDA replaces Amy

944 -

Good starting catch up. Feels kind of town but I want more posts from him asap.

This slot feels rather null to me, I'm going to await VDA posts and I'll willing pressure him if he doesn't.

1. Flubber
   
2. Ankimus
   
3. VDA
   
4. Alchemist
   
5. Droog

dude this post was so legit
except for the fact
that victor is acting just like in the game where we played with scumhim
i'm really surprised you didn't notice this

[Mathdino]

Anen*n*n*n

HE'S TOWN, MOVING ON

ftfy

i will continue hard defending aneninen until either he gets killed or until he reveals everything
you don't have to agree with me
but i will just say
continuing to talk about aneninen is useless

[wgeurts]

I'm leaning town on him if you read

[wgeurts]

God these smilies suck.