Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

[oddmusic]

RC's switching from me, someone she (?) supposedly had a strong scumread on, to aquanim as a policy lynch, even though I gave my wagon plenty of momentum, is giving me confidence in my vote…finally. Though I do like her posting waffles in response to me. It's a pretty fair assessment of my play to that point in the game, and I like waffles. They're tasty.

Taly and Aquanim both rushed to my defense. Could be scum buddying. Could also be town trying to stop what they think is a bad wagon.

With that in mind, could somebody explain to me the scumcase on Taly and/or Aquanim? Doesn't matter who, just want something concrete to work with.

[Metalcyanide]

RC's switching from me, someone she (?) supposedly had a strong scumread on, to aquanim as a policy lynch, even though I gave my wagon plenty of momentum, is giving me confidence in my vote…finally. Though I do like her posting waffles in response to me. It's a pretty fair assessment of my play to that point in the game, and I like waffles. They're tasty.

Taly and Aquanim both rushed to my defense. Could be scum buddying. Could also be town trying to stop what they think is a bad wagon.

With that in mind, could somebody explain to me the scumcase on Taly and/or Aquanim? Doesn't matter who, just want something concrete to work with.

I feel like that RC is trying to link you and Aquanim. But I'm looking for more explanation on this from RC as well. I'm working on a post with some Taly stuff not sure it will help make a scum case though.

[oddmusic]

Oh RC's definitely trying to link me and Aqua. That doesn't really explain the vote switch to me at least. The best I've got for that is this:

Especially since a scumflip on Music wouldn't say much about you but a scumflip on you would say a hell of a lot about music.

(You is Aqua is this case)

So if Aqua flips scum, I'm more likely to be scum because…Aqua chose to go after RC for voting me? That make no sense, at least to me.

[Metalcyanide]

Part 2: A continuation of my whatever the hell this is list

Taly

- As others have said you are looking a bit panicky which can be a scum read but I can see why a newer player would be playing this way. Back in post 113 you said "I think some are leaning in both directions individually, but I think quite a few people so far are neutral." Could you let us know who you feel is leaning which way. Side note hope everything is good in IRL.

Aquanim

- Thank you for giving me time to make good on me getting info, I know some people don't have patience in these games. So how do you feel about lurkers / low post counters? Also where are you on Odd right now, is he closer to town or scum to you?

Pisskop

- Speaking of lurkers, whats up where you been? ISOing you shows a bunch of fluff posts. I want some reads out of you.

It's 0415 time for bed see you guys later today.

[Aquanim]

Oh RC's definitely trying to link me and Aqua. That doesn't really explain the vote switch to me at least. The best I've got for that is this:

Especially since a scumflip on Music wouldn't say much about you but a scumflip on you would say a hell of a lot about music.

(You is Aqua is this case)

So if Aqua flips scum, I'm more likely to be scum because…Aqua chose to go after RC for voting me? That make no sense, at least to me.

The logical conclusion is that RadiantCowbells thinks that if I were scum, I would not choose to defend you in that way if you were town.

Alternately, if you were known to be scum, then that would not help to distinguish between an incorrect town Aquanim and a scumbuddy Aquanim. Which does rather lead me to question the entire basis of the associative case, but anyway...

The first part is not an entirely unreasonable conclusion but it does not seem like it should be a good enough reason to lynch a town-null read over a scum read.

[Aquanim]

...

Aquanim

- Thank you for giving me time to make good on me getting info, I know some people don't have patience in these games. So how do you feel about lurkers / low post counters?

I rather wish they'd make more posts, mostly.

My argument against Aeronaut has been somewhat misrepresented as a lurker lynch; on the contrary, in the time period where Aeronaut was actively posting a fair few people made less posts than him. My concern is that with his dozen-odd posts he didn't say anything I considered useful, genuinely inquisitive or interesting.

The only game relevant observations or questions I can find from him are in #85, which is an obvious observation and a blindingly obvious question (which had in fact already been asked and answered).

His intransigence when InsidiousLemons asked him to put his vote somewhere useful (in #87 and #91) could be argued to be town indications (something along the lines of "scum want to fit in") but that argument does not convince me.

Also where are you on Odd right now, is he closer to town or scum to you?

Vaguely scummy. The whole "woe is me, I can't come to grips with this game" is pretty classically scummy, but I don't feel it's conclusive (in that new townies could possibly feel that way too). I don't like the argument about his overreaction to pressure, for reasons previously stated (namely I don't think it's all that much of an overreaction to RC's preceding posts). RC's final point about Oddmusic's choice of words at the end of #156 is not good either.

[Aquanim]

RC's switching from me, someone she (?) supposedly had a strong scumread on, to aquanim as a policy lynch, even though I gave my wagon plenty of momentum, is giving me confidence in my vote…finally. Though I do like her posting waffles in response to me. It's a pretty fair assessment of my play to that point in the game, and I like waffles. They're tasty.

Taly and Aquanim both rushed to my defense. Could be scum buddying. Could also be town trying to stop what they think is a bad wagon.

With that in mind, could somebody explain to me the scumcase on Taly and/or Aquanim? Doesn't matter who, just want something concrete to work with.

Ugggggh... this post gives me the heebie jeebies.

I'm not sure whether the digression about waffles reflects an unconcerned and relaxed townie, or a scum trying to bulk up their posting with irrelevancies.

I don't like that he's come to no conclusions on his own about Taly and myself, but the case on Taly is indeed not particularly coherent and RC's points against me aren't all that impressive.

I guess it all boils down to "Has oddmusic legitimately been lost in this game as a townie, or is he scum?". Considering there haven't been many well-defined wagons or leaders in this game thus far the former is not totally unbelieveable... but nor is it obviously justified, the game hasn't been all THAT impenetrable.

If everything was obvious the game would be easy, I suppose. Does anyone have a read or a point about oddmusic that has less to do with with his purported difficulty in getting into this game? (I'm not even sure if that question makes sense, since it's rather defined his play so far. But whatever.)

[eektor]

@Elyse If his vote wasn't RVS, I want to know why he's lying. Also, I've never even heard of a pre-game cop and I am doubtful that is normal.

Why do you think I'm scum?

He was clearly joking when he said that. You even asked if his vote was RVS or not. If you actually believed that it was possible he investigated mykonian pregame, you would have made a bigger stink over it and made him explain himself.

Then when he (again, jokingly) replies that his vote isn't RVS, you ask him seriously why he would unvote someone he knows to be scum. But then in your next post, which contains all your reads, you don't even mention TheDudeAbides.

It just doesn't seem like a logical thought process for town. To me, it seems like scum who is hesitant and unsure of how to deal with someone claiming things that you already know the answer to.

I'm sorry but I just don't see that as a joke. When I asked to make sure his vote was RVS, he said no. I take that as he had a reason to vote for mykonian. And I didn't put him on my reads because I'm still figuring him out.

But you knew that a pre-game cop wasn't normal...so I'm not understanding how you thought he was being serious.

Now I don't see how you can think my actions with him are scum motivated.

Not scum motivated, but what awkward scum would do.

Wouldn't scum who knew he had to be joking just let it slide rather than confront him to make sure he was actually doing an RVS instead of a real vote?

How would scum know if he was joking? They don't know town roles. Your actions don't align with a townie who genuinely believed TDA wasn't joking. If I thought someone had a potential cop guilty on someone, I would make sure he made that clear right away.

Also, so your motivation to vote me had nothing to do with my reads and vote on oddmusic and solely on my interaction with the dude?

Correct.

I don't really want to vote Aquanim today. I'm mostly confused about why RC is voting him. If it's for his actions surrounding the odd wagon, I don't think that's a good way to find scum considering odd hasn't flipped.

I'm not talking about his claim, i'm talking about his vote. Are you telling me you have never seen people say random things or joke around and then put a serious vote in the same post? Is this something he doesn't do? Do you have experience playing with him?

And scum wouldn't know roles but they should know alignment.

[mykonian]

there are too few taly votes

vote taly

[Taly]

School is closed due to weather, I have actually slept for a night the past few days, and I’m in a better mentality for putting my thoughts across.

RadiantCowbells

– I think this is her overall behavior and meta, but her abrasiveness and confidence in her arguments is off-putting to me. Especially with her arguments towards Aquanim and others she’s jumped on, it doesn’t have a lot of substance. I’m impressed she seems to know quite a bit about “cognitive dissonance,” pressure, and other things she said she has applied in this game. She can be a rough townie, or a competent scum. So far, I haven’t seen much I can trust and my gut tells me she can manipulate others. Even though her scumhunting may be town-motivated, I just haven’t seen something I liked yet.

Reading: Slight Lean Scum

Question:

Can you elaborate on your case on Aquanim?

And supposedly the other 3 people you've seem to think were good lynches this early in D1?

Toolenduso

– I do believe Tool has made some good points in assessing how I’ve come across to others, and his idea of putting up a scum case towards me seems a little incoherent. I wouldn’t say he has put up a strong case with me, but from what I’ve seen of Tool in his interactions to others, he seems to be a stronger player in how he words himself. I haven’t seen enough to tell alignment, but my reading on him so far would be:

Neutral

Question:

Tool, what are your opinions on the most prominent posters so far?

oddmusic

– The only thing I’ve defended with odd over was the possibility that the wagon against him wasn’t credible. He already justified he had a bad day, and only one post of frustration can come from either a town or scum. That said, it really rubbed me the wrong way when he talked about the possibility of Aquanim and I being a scum team, especially when we were the ones trying to keep a detracting wagon from forming.

Where did that come from?

I have done very little to buddy with Aquanim other than stating my opinion that I think his patience and approach to this game is a lot easier and more efficient to deal with than most other peoples’ reactions so far. (I’m not one to talk, but those are my thoughts.) I am unsure of him. I think odd is trying to find credible and justified reasons to appear safe, which I can see from both alignments with a wagon on them.

Reading: Neutral

Question:

Do you think the wagon against you is justified? If not, who do you think is worth a push for scumreading?

mykonian

– My reactions to mykonian were a little off, I’ve understood that now. I guess I have a better view on his thinking, the small opinion posts he is dropping indicate that he wants to get reactions from others. (Wanting to drive responses through votes.) Which I think is necessary for getting information, even though I feel his suspicions are misplaced I have found some posts that I think are decent from him. I wish he posted more though.

Reading: Slight Town Lean

Question:

After you have read this entire post

what are your thoughts on me?

Elyse

– I have mixed thoughts about Elyse. Her getting us out of RVS and her assessing everyone for info and greater desire to find progress in questioning others seems very town-motivated. I think she’s one of the strongest players in here. But this also makes me worry because she could be a very smart scum, and in looking at her win ratio, she seems to be very good at either alignment. I also don’t see her readings on everyone particularly, and I say this to encourage some insight form her. Anyway my gut tells me she is town, I just hope that is and that her vote on me is realized to be misplaced. (Even though I’ve given her valid reason to vote due to sketchy play, that is all I can say but I hope my vibe gets across.)

Reading: Slight Town Lean

Question:

What do you think about RadiantCowbells?

Metalcyanide

– I was skeptic due to the attention he seemed to have obtained earlier in this day, but at seeing his recent posts, I’m liking them. I appreciated him giving concise reads about everyone so far, and I took his read on me as encouragement from him to explain my reads to you guys. Which is good for keeping the town together and getting useful information instead of just wagons and reactions.

Reading: Moderate Town Lean

Question:

Since you basically just did a read, what do you think about the people who have

not

responded? Also, what do you think about my reads?

Aquanim

– I think out of everyone in this game Aquanim has been the most revealing in his actions, reads, and analysis’. He is yet to jump on others with a vote(something I kind of failed to do), and openly admits that he doesn’t know enough of someone to have a read on them and I like that. RCs argument against him seems to be very fluffy and lacking real substance. I do have doubts about what are his readings on the most active people so far, but he seems genuine. This is subject to change, especially since this is early in the game but Reading:

Moderate Town Lean

Question:

Do you have any specific opinions on me, so far?

InsidiousLemons

– I don’t know much about his reads, I do think he is genuine. He’s expressed at the very least polite opinions in and outside of game speak on the thread. I think being genuine is a good town trait, it gives others deeper insight to your emotions and thought processes. Other than this, I think the thoughts he has put on about peoples posts are so far useful in contributing to a case on someone. Reading:

Moderate Town Lean

Question:

Do you think posts coming from newer players are more likely to be defensive?

Especially in games like these where there is a lot more activity going on.

If you aren’t part of this reading, you’re the small group of people who I don’t know enough to even have to say something on. I also think this small group of people could be lurkers, but they have lives. So I won’t say too much about them until I see more of them, or further lack thereof.

Sorry for the massive text wall, these are my currents thoughts and I would appreciate each of you to at least acknowledge and answer my questions.

[toolenduso]

Just did ISO reads. Myko looks town because of this post:

I think I'm voting someone town.

This seems pretty slender to hang a townread on. Not sure I understand what you're getting at, but given your respective joindates I suspect you have much more experience with Mykonian than I do, so I suppose it's quite possible you see something meaningful here I don't.

Nah, this isn't meta. I don't think I've ever played with Mykonian. My thought with that post was that it's a pretty clear demonstration that myko doesn't care how he looks. Which is something I tend to see as town more than scum.

I assume this means you don't think RC's posts preceding #156 comparing Oddmusic's posts to a scumclaim were provocative, since you'd have to think that to think #156 was an "overreaction out of nowhere".
Which of the reactions in particular to Oddmusic's wagon strike you as scummy? The only reaction I remember being significantly discussed was mine...

OK that's my bad actually -- I was reading Odd's ISO and didn't click out of it to look at RC's post that provoked the response. In my head I remembered the antecedent being something much more low-key. I'll have to go back over that again with the context in mind and re-evaluate.

As for the reactions to it, I was thinking about these ones in particular:

-Insidious: Hops onto the Odd wagon nine posts after pisskop and right after the mod posts a votecount. His reasoning in #163 has a tone to it that could be interpreted as him looking through Odd's ISO knowing that momentum was building on his wagon and looking for reasons to call Odd a scumread.
-Elyse: In #168, she says she would be fine with voting for Odd but stops short of placing a vote. Doesn't give reasons but rather implies that it's all already been said, which very well may be true but looks like she's leaving a back door open to come after Odd should he look like the day's lynch.
-Aqua: More or less does the same thing as Elyse in #172 but is even less open about whether he'd vote for Odd. Most of what he says is a defense, but his wording ("I see where y'all be coming from on the Oddmusic tone read but I'm not quite sold") look somewhat like he's letting player know that maybe if they push Odd a little more he would be willing to join in.

Lest I be misunderstood, I'll say it right now -- I don't have Insidious or Aqua on the scum side of my reads list. Elyse leans more scum to me than those two, but she's not in my top three suspects atm either.

Rather, these are posts I would revisit with a fresh view if we see a flip on OddMusic.

...which makes your scumread on RC for pursuing that angle rather strange.

I don't follow you.

It doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me for a townie to keep their options open in expectation of new data, especially halfway down page 2. I for one do not have much of an opinion about a fair few of the players in this game even now since I think I lack sufficient data to make a decent read.

It's one thing to keep your options open and another to tell a specific player that you might change your read if they can persuade you.

[oddmusic]

Question: Do you think the wagon against you is justified? If not, who do you think is worth a push for scumreading?

Define justified. I think RC is using my angry behavior as an excuse to scumread me. I don't blame anybody else for scumreading me on the grounds that my first post responding to RC was so over the top I kind of gave everybody a good reason to scumread me. So I guess you could say it's justified.

[Taly]

Question: Do you think the wagon against you is justified? If not, who do you think is worth a push for scumreading?

Define justified. I think RC is using my angry behavior as an excuse to scumread me. I don't blame anybody else for scumreading me on the grounds that my first post responding to RC was so over the top I kind of gave everybody a good reason to scumread me. So I guess you could say it's justified.

Justified - Having a good and stable reason for something.

You answered my question, thank you. Do you think my read on RC makes sense? (Off of what we have seen)

[oddmusic]

I haven't meta'd RC, and I'd have to do some of that to evaluate your read considering that was part of it. But as far as what you pulled from the forum for the read it matches up pretty well with my thoughts, yeah.

[oddmusic]

Looking over Taly's read of me, I never tried to infer that you and Aqua were a scumteam. I suggested that when you and aqua came in to defend me, one of you might have been buddying me. Aqua's probably the better candidate for that all things considered. I don't think both of you are a team at this time, though I'm not going to rule it out either.

[Taly]

Looking over Taly's read of me, I never tried to infer that you and Aqua were a scumteam. I suggested that when you and aqua came in to defend me, one of you might have been buddying me. Aqua's probably the better candidate for that all things considered. I don't think both of you are a team at this time, though I'm not going to rule it out either.

Oh, I read it as that. But anyway, I see what you're saying now. Do you have a specific read on me, then?

[oddmusic]

Looking over Taly's read of me, I never tried to infer that you and Aqua were a scumteam. I suggested that when you and aqua came in to defend me, one of you might have been buddying me. Aqua's probably the better candidate for that all things considered. I don't think both of you are a team at this time, though I'm not going to rule it out either.

Oh, I read it as that. But anyway, I see what you're saying now. Do you have a specific read on me, then?

I see no reason not to read you as town. You've been doing some solid scumhunting, and your posts generally seem well thought-out. I don't agree with every point on your readslist, but it looks pretty towny to me. Aside from my point about buddying – which looking over the post you made on me, that was less of a defense of me than I remembered – I've never agreed with the people scumreading you. So it's a tentative townread. Tentative because it's early Day 1, and I don't give anything more than tentative reads early Day 1.

[pisskop]

Speaking of lurkers, whats up where you been? ISOing you shows a bunch of fluff posts. I want some reads out of you.

Excuse me? I ardly qualify as a lurker, and my posts take positions. Fluff posting my arse.

[Taly]

Speaking of lurkers, whats up where you been? ISOing you shows a bunch of fluff posts. I want some reads out of you.

Excuse me? I ardly qualify as a lurker, and my posts take positions. Fluff posting my arse.

I think he is just prompting you to give us your opinions and your reads. Just a thought would be nice

[pisskop]

I'm only harassing Metal When I have free time I'll be in here.

[Taly]

Looking over Taly's read of me, I never tried to infer that you and Aqua were a scumteam. I suggested that when you and aqua came in to defend me, one of you might have been buddying me. Aqua's probably the better candidate for that all things considered. I don't think both of you are a team at this time, though I'm not going to rule it out either.

Oh, I read it as that. But anyway, I see what you're saying now. Do you have a specific read on me, then?

I see no reason not to read you as town. You've been doing some solid scumhunting, and your posts generally seem well thought-out. I don't agree with every point on your readslist, but it looks pretty towny to me. Aside from my point about buddying – which looking over the post you made on me, that was less of a defense of me than I remembered – I've never agreed with the people scumreading you. So it's a tentative townread. Tentative because it's early Day 1, and I don't give anything more than tentative reads early Day 1.

OK, well - You seem to officially be on the slight townie lean list on me. For your cooperation in answering my questions, and how you haven't jumped to conclusions nor are you about to. You're also the first person to actually acknowledge my defense and points to others without trying to find a scumread, but instead more like a townread. (Which can be just as effective as scum hunting, because town hunting prevents actual town from being lynched for just reactive wagons.)

@pisskop

- OK, I would like to hear what you have to say as well, but if you're currently busy right now then I won't hold it against you unless it becomes oddly consistent. (Which it really hasn't yet, this is just the starting half of D1.)

[Elyse]

@eektor
Ok that makes more sense. But then what did you base TDA's apparent confirmation of mykonian as scum on?

My case on Taly is this:

He placed a poor vote on mykonian and only unvoted when I put pressure on him. Then, he backtracked and said that mykonian's explanation of his read caused him to unvote. However, I pointed on that this was not true since Taly posted three times after mykonian's explanation and did not unvote. Upon pressing him further, he admitted my pressure did have an influence on his unvote.

[oddmusic]

@Elyse: Does admitting it make him more likely to be scum? I sort of see it the other way around.

@Taly: While I do appreciate the townread, I don't like where it's coming from. I might be misinterpreting but it feels like you're townreading me because I'm townreading you. This happens a lot, and town does it fairly frequently, so this doesn't really qualify as a scumread, just a reminder that scum frequently do townread people who are actually town, for towncred. (Ugh, that sentence had far too many instances of the word town in it).

[Taly]

@Elyse: Does admitting it make him more likely to be scum? I sort of see it the other way around.

@Taly: While I do appreciate the townread, I don't like where it's coming from. I might be misinterpreting but it feels like you're townreading me because I'm townreading you. This happens a lot, and town does it fairly frequently, so this doesn't really qualify as a scumread, just a reminder that scum frequently do townread people who are actually town, for towncred. (Ugh, that sentence had far too many instances of the word town in it).

I didn't address my read on you being town for towncred, it was simply you taking in my questions without dismissing, or oddly formulating your answers in response. I saw that you were being fully honest and I appreciated it, even though it may not be completely town motivation or even motivation at all - it just gave me a gut feeling that you were town. I'm just stating this and my position on you so people have a better view on my thoughts over your actions. I'm still not ruling out the idea you are completely neutral or even in fact scum, but this is just something I picked up from your responses and took it as a town type reply.

>>> @Elyse - I'm going to reply to your case one by one.

My case on Taly is this:

He placed a poor vote on mykonian and only unvoted when I put pressure on him.

I don't understand why you thought my vote on mykonian was poor, I justified myself on why I voted him, and even linked several posts that supported my concern. original post to mykonian I may have appeared reactive, but I wonder what you mean by "poor vote" since I had legitimate reasons. Can you explain?

Then, he backtracked and said that mykonian's explanation of his read caused him to unvote.

Despite the next part of your claim on this case, even though in part - your influence caused my unvote, mykonians reaction still took part. Don't give yourself all the credit. (I'm sorry if this comes across as a bit harsh, it is really not intended to.) That's not the case.

However, I pointed on that this was not true since Taly posted three times after mykonian's explanation and did not unvote. Upon pressing him further, he admitted my pressure did have an influence on his unvote.

To be honest, I was at first rattled by you pressuring me, especially because I had already stated several times why I voted mykonian. And yes, your pressuring did have a final influence in my unvoting, but I did this out of fear that people(IE, you and others) would use my own words against me. I really believed I was making valid points over mykonian, and at the time(I was in a frustrated mindset) I was panicked and defensive because I thought you were dismissing my efforts to try and find info. from people. Of course, this probably doesn't even justify that I did indirectly lied to you, but this doesn't mean I'm exactly worthy of a scum vote because I put effort in trying to get opinions.

I just thought people were detracting from getting progress on finding out the readings of others. I'm sorry I won't be dishonest like that again, I know these words don't have so much credibility, but I really have nothing else that I can say to that. If I were scum, I probably would have just kept avoiding you about admitting this. I just realized at that moment it would be best for me to be open and tell you what I really thought so I would not have anything to suspect or hide.

If this doesn't make you see my position then I don't know what will, can you tell me what you don't understand in my post if you don't?

*Also, 259 are where my full reads so far are at, if you've read them. I have a question there for you. (Same as everyone else.)

[Elyse]

@oddmusic
I think admitting it due to pressure negates any towniness about it. But yes that did make me question myself a little bit.

@Taly
I liked RC's early posts but I don't like his push on Aquanim. Leaning town but not strongly.

I'm saying your vote was poor because you retracted it after a little bit of a pressure and a standard explanation from mykonian. Most early votes in the game are poor.

With regard to everything else, you literally said earlier in the game there is no reason to be dishonest as town, yet now you admit to dishonesty. You don't handle pressure well and I think you "coming clean" is a defense mechanism to make you look like a confused townie. However, it contradicts what you said earlier and I'm not going to give you a free pass because you seem like a nice person. I'm sorry. But nice people can be scum too.