Newbie 1608: Snow Cones (Game Over)

[Keyser Söze]

One of Bulbazoor's many classic lines this game

[MiteyMouse]

Not saved the day, just placed a vote. It had to be done as, we couldn't have a no lynch on day 1.

[Keyser Söze]

D2:

- full analysis on Mantis' posts.

- scrutinize my 'town-reads' as much as my 'scum-reads'

- update of vote/town-reads/scum-reads summary

- D1 wagon analysis

[Fraggernaut]

If I'm nk'ed, just remember who pushed on me, who my reads were, & lead town to victory.

[GuyInFreezer]

votecount 1.11

Fro99er (3):

Master Zik, Mantisdreamz (SE), enomis (IC)

Mantisdreamz (5):

superbowl9, Bulbazoor, Fro99er, Fraggernaut, MiteyMouse (SE)

Not Voting:

Keyser Söze

With 9 alive, 5 to lynch

The deadline is June 1st, 9:50 PM EST.

Countdown:

(expired on 2015-06-01 21:50:00)

[GuyInFreezer]

Mantisdreamz,

Vanilla Townie

, has been lynched Day 1.

Now it is Night 1.

The deadline is June 3rd, 11:20 PM EST.
Countdown: (expired on 2015-06-03 23:19:03)

[GuyInFreezer]

Fraggernaut,

Town Jailkeeper

, was killed Night 1.

Now it is Day 2.
The deadline is June 18, 12:35 AM EST.

[Fro99er]

Well I screwed up on Mantis, and I know I'll be on the hot seat today. I should have stuck with Mitey. I do not believe that wagon was 100% town. So I'm looking at Mitey and Bulb. I believe Super is town (not confirmed, just what I believe). I can also see how everyone thinks if scum is on that wagon that it's my slot that is scum, and fully accept that.

[superbowl9]

I've been thinking about mitey scum, and unless there's some bussing going on, there's not too many people who could be her partner. On mobile now but iirc Bulbs, enomis, and frog were all on her L-1 wagon, and zik had her as "likely scum" or something.

[Bulbazoor]

I do not think I trust Master anymore. About Mitey, I do not know what to make of her vote.

[Bulbazoor]

With vote, I meant Whether I townread her for her claim that I was lying

[superbowl9]

Been thinking about other teams a lot, I think a list of all 15 will help.

Keyser-Zik:

Keyser's been feeling more town to me now, and he put rosen at L-2. Keysey hasn't said too much about zik tho. Zik had an ultra-town read keyser.

Keyser-Bulba:

Keyser had bulba as scummy early (really early, remember the "IDK if anyone agrees" thing?), but that could've been strategy IMO. I don't think keyser would have attacked the soft so hard (138) had bulb been his scummate who softed. Bulba's had keyser as town the whole game.

Keyser-Frog:

I think frog's keyser read changing makes sense, and unless keyser is bussing hard this team's not an option. Not to mention keyser's read changing after the replacement, which I don't think would be too likely for scum to do. Reu-keyser interactions have been kinda friendly past like page 2.

Keyser-Mitey:

Not too much interaction here, I'd say it's somewhat likely. Keyser has a scumread on mitey I think.

Keyser-Enomis:

Definitely possible. Would scum catch another scum with the "naive biters" thing? I don't think scum put petty little traps on each other, do they?

Zik-Bulba:

Unlikely, bulba and rosen had an exchange at the start that was pretty intense, and bulba voted, unvoted, then voted again for rosen.

Zik-Frog:

Didn't keyser have a theory on this pairing if rosen flipped scum? I'd like to hear that. Rosen-ruebus have pretty much no interactions, but zik has reu as his top scumread. Hardly any interaction form frog to reu/rosen.

Zik-Mitey:

Rosen-Mitey interactions look a bit too friendly, but zik-mitey interactions have been a bit tense. It's certainly a possibility.

Zik-Enomis:

Enomis put rosen at L-1. Other than that very few notable interactions except Zik's townread on him.

Bulba-Frog:

Bulba seemed very surprised when frog put his vote on him, and was very eager to change his vote from frog as well, then starts townreading and defending him? Sus. Frog scumreads bulba, but very well could have been that frog knew about the soft and is planning to bus bulb. This one's sounding kinda likely to me. Reu reads bulb as noobtown and bulb scumreads reu.

Bulba-Mitey:

Mitey has a bulb scumread/vote, and it kind of seems unnecessary looking at it from a mitey-bulba scumteam perspective. Wouldn't mitey have just not gotten involved instead of slapping a randomly timed vote on her partner? Bulb seems to have wanted a mitey lynch for a while, despite his flip-flopping read on her. Not the likeliest team.

Bulba-Enomis:

Not much interaction, town-read each other, did a little defending of each other. Possible.

Frog-Mitey:

Forg would have to be bussing mitey. Not really any reu-mitey interactions.

Frog-Enomis:

Enomis puts frogger at L-2 for what might be a misunderstanding. Enomis was on reu early, but nothing recent. Frog ultra-townreads enomis, while reu nullreads him with pretty much 0 interactions.

Mitey-Enomis:

Mitey townreads enomis, nothing on mitey from enomis until recently, when he says he would lynch her if he got the chance. This one's not too unlikely.

So bulb is either BP, VT, or scum. 168 makes me think he might be BP trying to get scum to waste their nk, but that's just my speculation.

[GuyInFreezer]

VC

[Keyser Söze]

Top analysis superbowl9, I'll add further comments when I can.

Fraggernaut,

Town Jailkeeper

, was killed Night 1.

Few comments on Fraggernaut's flip:

Fraggernaut is the Town Jailkeeper, meaning someone should now know for a

certainty

if Bulbazoor is lying or not about being able to prove his alignment (i.e town PR). If they do choose to come forward and counter-claim, we know either them or Bulbazoor is lying and is mafia. It is my belief that a VT should

never

claim a town PR, because it forces the real-PR to reveal themselves - very anti-town.

I was thinking a Fraggernaut lynch was likely. It was either him, me, enomis or superbowl9 who I think the mafia would have chosen (everyone's favourite town-reads). Keeping alive lynch-bait players (Fro99er and MiteyMouse) and highly suspicious players (Master Zik and Bulbazoor) was a good move for D2. Conclusion? Remember to keep one eye on Keyser Söze, enomis and superbowl9.

[Keyser Söze]

votecount 1.11

Fro99er (3):

Master Zik,

Mantisdreamz

(SE), enomis (IC)

Mantisdreamz (5):

superbowl9, Bulbazoor, Fro99er,

Fraggernaut

, MiteyMouse (SE)

Not Voting:

Keyser Söze

I'm going to re-look at Mantisdreamz's wagon later: the people who wanted it (including me, but I didn't need to vote) and the people who were opposed (or quite happy to let if happen!). There could be at least one mafia on Mantisdreamz's wagon [superbowl9, Bulbazoor, Fro99er,

Fraggernaut

, MiteyMouse, Keyser Söze].

Need to look at:

- all of Fraggernaut's posts (their town/scum reads)
- all of Mantisdreamz's posts (their town/scum reads)
[...we can view them as true townies scum-hunting]

- MiteyMouse's breadcrumbed VT claim
- Master Zik's disappearance at deadline hour
- enomis' (IC) and MiteyMouse's (SE) little input



See you guys later.

[Keyser Söze]

My current D2 lynch pool:

MiteyMouse
Fro99er
Master Zik
enomis

Firstly, looking at

enomis'

exchanges with Master Zik, Fro99er and MiteyMouse (and vice-versa) comments in blue and red:

Zik-Enomis:

Enomis put rosen at L-1. Other than that very few notable interactions except Zik's townread on him.

Enomis was fine with a Rosen/Zik lynch. Enomis appreciates Zik's effort to play the game, but does not think Zik's large wall post is town-indicative. Enomis questions Zik on "favouring reubus over mitey". Enomis notices Zik's "experience" with mafia.

Zik declares "Enomis is likely to be town". Zik states that he is "hoping for him to be town because he would be an asset to us". Zik agrees that Enomis' posts haven't been very strong town. Zik believes Enomis is deliberately making himself not a "high priority night kill target by mafia". Zik town-reads Enomis' "constantly interacting with other players". Zik is "not sure how he's" not understanding Keyser's thought process. Zik describes Enomis' responses as "waffly". Zik questions Enomis "why have you not unvoted my slot?" Zik disagrees with Enomis' summarization: "That's grossly misrepresentative! Uncharacteristic of an IC, and more indicative of a scum trait".

Frog-Enomis:

Enomis puts frogger at L-2 for what might be a misunderstanding. Enomis was on reu early, but nothing recent. Frog ultra-townreads enomis, while reu nullreads him with pretty much 0 interactions.

Enomis had an early gut scum feeling on Reubus. Enomis felt Reubus' early post was insincere and scummy. Enomis felt Reubus/Frog was a good wagon to build. Enomis states his strongest scumread was Reubus. Enomis describes Reubus as "active lurking". Enomis feels Reubus' "general posting style" is not town. Enomis states that appeasing is not a scumtell, after I'd scum-read Reubus' interactions as either neutralising or appeasing. Enomis thought I was "scumreading [Reubus] for the wrong reasons". Enomis "got turned off" reading Fro99er's long analysis. States Fro99er as his scum read "entirely because of his predecessor. He reads null to me even after all that wall post". Enomis declares that he is "fine with leaving Fro99er for day 2 and reading more of her on day 2". The next day, Enomis notices how Fro99er talked "literally nothing about mitey and suddenly have a huge ass load of points about him scum". Now asks people to lynch Fro99er, accusing Fro99er of a "desperate attempt to avoid a lynch today by choosing a popular target".

In summary, Fro99er: "Enomis is soooooooo town"

Mitey-Enomis:

Mitey townreads enomis, nothing on mitey from enomis until recently, when he says he would lynch her if he got the chance. This one's not too unlikely.

Enomis made an early random vote on MiteyMouse. Enomis describes Mitey as "lurking". Enomis wanted Mitey to explain their vote on Bulb. Enomis is fine with miteymouse lynch. Enomis states that he is happy to "switch to mitey if fro99er lynch don't gain support".

Mitey agrees with Enomis that she is "better with getting Town reads than getting Scum reads". Mitey states her read on enomis: "I don't see this slot as Scummy right now. I don't think we should ignore it but, nothing has jumped at me yet."

I've got the strongest conclusion on the Fro99er-Enomis interactions:

Fro99er-Enomis is either TOWN-TOWN or MAFIA-TOWN. Less likely to be MAFIA-MAFIA.

I feel like there is more chance of a MAFIA-MAFIA combination in Zik-Enomis and Mitey-Enomis.

Agree/disagree?

[Keyser Söze]

I was thinking a Fraggernaut lynch was likely.

lynch = NK

[superbowl9]

Agreed. It's been pretty slow so far D2, where is everyone?

[Keyser Söze]

If I'm nk'ed, just remember who pushed on me, who my reads were, & lead town to victory.

We'll do our best bro. I hope we play together as town in the future soon too - we seem to have read eachother very well. Ok, now let's look at Fraggernaut's reads and see who pushed him...

OK, Fraggernaut was looking at Bulbazoor on D1:

Spoiler:

I also find it interesting that frag scumreads me out of the blue.

I've been scum reading you since that soft. Wasn't out of the blue.

Also find it interesting that Bulb is scum reading me after I asked him about the soft then denying it was a soft. Then turning right back around in 160 & admitting to the soft again.

UNVOTE: froggerVOTE: MiteyMouse

I have assessed frogger. He seems to read me over alot. I have noticed he is putting in bis two cents into the game. At the end of the day, hes going to end up townreading me.

I feel this is a good lynch, as it gives us more useful information about mitey and possible scumteams. Another good lynch would. Be mantis. Ill get more into mantis Sunday.

You are quite a peculiar player I must say. You scum read me, jump on the Mitey vote (maybe a possible d2 play to say I led a bandwagon), then come back & read me null after I pinged you out for not reassessing reads throughout the game.

I'm sure someone (namely scum) will try to say I'm tunneling Bulb hard, which isn't what I'm trying to do. I want to step back & observe all of Bulb's game; but when I do he comes back & says something that sets off red flags. It's alarming.

[So why did mafia NK Fraggernaut? Is Bulbazoor mafia... was he rattled by Fraggernaut's line of questions? Doubt it. Did mafia think we'd look at Bulbazoor more closely as Fraggernaut was not convinced by his posts? More likely.]

Fraggernaut's reads: (green town, scum read, null blue)

Spoiler:

Keyser

still seems town to me, as does

Super

&

Mitey

.

Rosen

,

Reubus

, &

Enomis

I'm null on for now.

Bulb

is still scummy to me. Not really sure where to put

Mantis

just yet, so I guess they're null as well regardless of the vote.

As to 303 . I had both

Rosen

&

Reubus

as null reads. Wasn't too sure on either of them.

Master

so far I like your logic, & how you are trying to break this game down & figure it out. To me right now that's towny. I still have

Keyser

&

Super

town. I have you &

Fro99er

null cause while you just joined, I like the content of both your posts so far; I'm just not ready to put you fully in my town circle.

Enomis

I still have null. I want to believe you're town, I just haven't seen enough out of you.

Bulb

, at the moment I'm moving back to null. I'm still watching you, & your earlier play.

Mantis

I'm reading scum. Dropped a vote on me, gave kind of a half answer to the vote, & has disappeared.

Mighty

I'm reading scum currently as well. I feel even with time away from the game, you still know mechanics of the game, & how to play it . That experience never leaves you.

Negative. Im town but nice try to throw scum on me. I'm pretty confident now the scum team is

Mantis

/

Mighty

Doesn't change that right now

Mitey

& yourself are my top scum reads.

@Bulb How am I following a Mitey vote?

Mitey

&

Mantis

have been my scum for awhile since I read you null.

My town circle is:

Keyser

Super

Enomis

Bulb

&

Fro99er

are null town lean

Mitey

&

Mantis

are still my top two scum

Mitey should be the first lynch, they've been the scummiest in this game. If we lynch Mantis today, mitey has to be tomorrow

UNVOTE: Mitey

VOTE: Mantis

So d2 we need to look at

Mitey

, as well as investigate the two slots that were replaced, in my opinion.

[OK, so here we need to make a decision. Are mafia playing mind games with us. Fraggernaut and many others wanted the MiteyMouse lynch. Have mafia NK'd Fraggernaut and kept MiteyMouse alive because she's obvious lynchbait? Or is MiteyMouse actually mafia?!]

[Keyser Söze]

Zik-Frog:

Didn't keyser have a theory on this pairing if rosen flipped scum? I'd like to hear that.

Yes, trying to find my notes...

Something to do with:
- Reubus' early vote on Rosen (Post #11) [kind of a scum-voting-on-scum, to try to muddy their connection together ]
- Reubus' omitting Rosen's name completely on his scum/town/null read list (Post #189) [possibly not an innocent error, but a scum slip - to go through your town/scum read list of everyone, but forget to name your scum partner in your list ]

All theory of course.


But then both got replaced, which made me take a step back. What a cowardly pair of mafia if they were scum though

[superbowl9]

Keyser, I've also been thinking about the nk. Have you considered process of elimination? Maybe they had reasons

not

to nk the more towny players and frag was just the towniest person they could have reasonably killed. Just another possibility.

[Keyser Söze]

One point, if Enomis is mafia, and either Master Zik or MiteyMouse his mafia partner, I believe Enomis is the mafia roleblocker, and Master Zik/MiteyMouse is a mafia goon, as he was quite happy to lynch/bus either of them. I.e

'keep the mafia PR alive'

.

If Enomis is town, then we still need to look at Master Zik/MiteyMouse.

Enomis did not comment on the Mantis wagon, neither did he want to stop it, he wanted Fro99er lynched. I'm curious to hear his reads now.



My theory on Fraggernaut and Superbowl was correct - I said both couldn't be mafia when they were on my early wagon. It was either one or none. Fragg flipped town. So for now, I think it is none. It sounds like everyone is calling Superbowl town too now - thus, scum are conforming to the general consensus. Similarly how most are reading me as town too - scum don't want to make a scene, they want town to go after the obvious lynch-bait, not the strong town reads of town.

[Keyser Söze]

I'm looking at why Bulbazoor wasn't NK'd...

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

If Bulbazoor is a town PR, then the scum team includes a Mafia Roleblocker: I'm sure they would have loved to NK Bulbazoor on N1...

But I believe they couldn't gamble on there NOT being a Town Doctor, who would have likely protected Bulbazoor... so they chose to NK Fraggernaut.


If the scum team are two mafia goons, then Bulbazoor was lying about his town PR.

Conclusion: Bulbazoor is the Town 1-shot Bulletproof and the mafia chickened out on NK'ing Bulbazoor.

[Keyser Söze]

Plus, I believe mafia couldn't gamble on Bulbazoor NOT being the Town 1-shot Bulletproof.

[pieguyn]

bump