Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[sangres]

I don't think analysis is going to be my forte today. :/

[sangres]

Ok, so first off - bad memory about his trajectory on us. he did move his vote - to Pie. which doesn't stick out in my mind because it looks like a go-with-the-flow vote. he asks pie a question about what makes a stance weak and strongly implied pie's stance was weak in 108. In post 129 his scumread appeared to have crumbled and he's mediating between Pie and GB. 133 I wasn't sure about, partly because I'd recently caught the full withering effect of regfan's scumread in a game. 135 is where his read goes to town. but he didn't unvote. voteliness is next to godliness? he throws out more questions to pie and seems to wobble a bit on the read. 296 he kinda makes it official the read is shoring up.

All of this without a resolution of some sort.

Then he votes Soft-spoken. And the trajectory is similar. Read softens, vote stays. This time it feels like the original reasons for the scumread stay in place and I don't get the impression that anything in Ss's play since the vote has been taken in. 583 was his case, and one of the final thoughts there was that he didn't want to let go of the read because too large a town pile. This gives me some townfeels (and it's not like his iso is completely devoid of townfeels) because I feel like it's the sort of thought process a scum player would want to censor.

And there's much less reaction to other people's reads changes.

594 is interesting, because I think it may be true of Ss' scumgame.

612 is jarring because it's like Quil didn't get why people thought Ss scumslipped and didn't try to go back and work it out. which ties into my feel that his vote and stance are overall too sticky given the data.

619 struck me as phenomenally tonedeaf. or throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.

854 and 855 give me townfeels, though. Like finally he's addressing why others are townreading Ss. Will be interested to see what Nacho thinks of them.

[Soft-spoken]

oh and i would very much appreciate some power-posting from ffery ATM because the more nacho posts the less sure i am about sangres town

My "what now?" question got an answer!

There are a ton of questions for my slot atm, but they're very specifically not questions for me.

Unlike Nacho, I feel like there's an inevitability to Yuriko getting lynched today. I'd want for other stuff to happen first, and I think most players aren't willing to end the day yet, even if they're voting Yuriko, but once inevitability locks in and becomes momentum, the gamestate is different. I can't count the number of times I've supported the lynch of a relatively unknown and new-ish looking player whose posts look scummy and they flipped town, so I can grok Nacho pushing for people to keep looking today in ways they might not until day 2 if we settle on Yuriko as early as it looked like we would.

i dont mind pushes on people who arnt yuriko... i actually favor it. i dont read yuriko scum at all im just kinda being pragmatic and accepting its probably a decent lynch with no major scumreads. the problem i have with nacho is that his pushes are incredibly unconvincing on the last few pages ... look more like throwing a vote around randomly tbh... and IIRC he has implied that he thinks yuriko is scum several times so i dont really see the point from his perspective

[Soft-spoken]

if a gun were put to your head right now and you had to guess the scum-team who would you pick?

sangres/yuriko for the soft-bus looking thing thats going on. but thats a huge stretch and so are most of my other "reads" tbh which is why im not being very vocal about them. im going to poke the scum to death with toothpicks this game

[Soft-spoken]

honestly most of the time RBD posts it gives me the creeps but i can attribute it to anything but the scary wolf avatar

[sangres]

oh and i would very much appreciate some power-posting from ffery ATM because the more nacho posts the less sure i am about sangres town

My "what now?" question got an answer!

There are a ton of questions for my slot atm, but they're very specifically not questions for me.

Unlike Nacho, I feel like there's an inevitability to Yuriko getting lynched today. I'd want for other stuff to happen first, and I think most players aren't willing to end the day yet, even if they're voting Yuriko, but once inevitability locks in and becomes momentum, the gamestate is different. I can't count the number of times I've supported the lynch of a relatively unknown and new-ish looking player whose posts look scummy and they flipped town, so I can grok Nacho pushing for people to keep looking today in ways they might not until day 2 if we settle on Yuriko as early as it looked like we would.

i dont mind pushes on people who arnt yuriko... i actually favor it. i dont read yuriko scum at all im just kinda being pragmatic and accepting its probably a decent lynch with no major scumreads. the problem i have with nacho is that his pushes are incredibly unconvincing on the last few pages ... look more like throwing a vote around randomly tbh... and IIRC he has implied that he thinks yuriko is scum several times so i dont really see the point from his perspective

it's a philosophical thing. If she's lynched and flips scum where does that lead tomorrow? What associations has she left? If it leads to us, that's fine, but it won't net a second scum lynch. The more time we spend scumhunting today before lynching her, which I pretty much expect to happen, the better shape we're in tomorrow. And if we're wrong about her, even more so.

[Soft-spoken]

actually yuriko leaves behind a massive trail of associative context for someone that has hardly posted. its not just your slot...

but, seriously. in a 2 scum game, if you think one scum isnt going to be a good associative lead after a flip... there is pretty much nothing you can do to change that... because there is no scum c to associate with scum b

[Soft-spoken]

like i would buy nachos argument there in a 3 scum game like ive said before... but in a 2 scum game... the amount of lynch that needs to happen is directly proportional to the amount of scum they seem to possess and nothing else. you can rig the game into giving you associations by lynching the other scum... and if the player you scumread is actually scum... the chances of doing that are slim

[Soft-spoken]

you

CAN'T

rig the game into

[Quilford]

@sangres: which of the stuff in #888 has been brought up by other players, as you implied in #882?

[Gold Saucer]

I don't have a whole lot to say. i didn't get around to meeting quilford. I'd probably be more on top of that, but seeing as how we'll still be here tomorrow, it doesnt' really matter.

Also I feel more strongly about my gentleman town read so that's nice. That's just about where I'm at. I'll try to sit down with this and do something after company leaves tomorrow though!

[Gold Saucer]

Actually regpire you guys had to actually read quil not to long ago for tm. Are there any comparisons here?

[Gold Saucer]

Oh he has four pages of posts. I'll do a comparison later after I finish and then check out a scum game.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Hey Tammy, Regfan and I just got done talking for a bit (though the conversation revolved around other slots) and he'll probably post his own thoughts but I figured I should do my own thing here. I haven't had much time today for anything mafia-related because life's been kicking me in the face this week but if you want to look at the scum game we used for comparison for TM, it's here. I think you'll find that there's a wealth of difference between his town play in TM and his scum play in that game (he's a lot more robotic and stiff in the scum game and definitely nowhere near as active).

I think his tone in this game hits the townspot but he is definitely a lot more passive here. I don't really think this is much of a scumtell as I can see him struggling a bit in this game as town (as I think we all are to some extent).

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Actually, I just noticed Nati was in that game, too.

Does Nati have any thoughts on Quilford? I did a CTRL + F search through Drake's ISO but I think only Muffin's talked about him?

[Soft-spoken]

well. i should do my ctrl+f meta method sometime soon. on GB, Gold, and RBD players. uknow what... im never playing game with this many hydras again... and if i ever mod im going to limit all my games to 2

[BBmolla]

dead today, will be back alive tomorrow

[pieguyn]

I'm mostly just sitting here waiting for Yuriko to finish catching up, if she ever gets around to doing so. at this point I'm really underwhelmed by what she's posted; also I agree with Regfan that her read on RBD felt more like she was attempting to fake confusion as opposed to actually trying to read them.

[pieguyn]

Explain the intital Pie town read (I want this in depth considering you said he was 'very very very obviously town', explain the exact thought process behind voting him (I still want you to comment on the reasons I was/am scumreading him for)

also, I'm still about 9000% sure you're on the wrong track with this

it's as I said before. Nacho and I generally feel confident enough reading each other that we don't really need to worry about how other ppl read us and can take the initiative to do it ourselves. and I can definitely see why he'd be reading my one post as "very very very obviously town".

I think you (and everyone else) are making a much bigger deal over the vote on me than it actually is. I don't think it was scummy - although I would like to see it explained, it's mostly out of curiosity over anything else. there is something that might be important that I think factored into it but I'll wait for Nacho first before saying what it is.

[Soft-spoken]

how can you say in one breath that nacho reads you well and you can see why he thought you were obvious town, then in another say his vote on you wasnt scummy?

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

I think most players aren't willing to end the day yet, even if they're voting Yuriko

I'm actually fine with the day ending whenever, tbh, and the sooner the better. I don't see a reason to needlessly stall the day out when the lack of standard night kills means conversations aren't going to be suddenly cut off. If people are fine with lynching Yuriko, I'd rather get this show on the road (I think the deadline is pretty close anyway?) and if people want something else to happen, then fucking do something about it.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

Vote Count 1.2

YurikoJasmine - 3 (Rancid Broderick Drake, BBmolla, Gold Saucer)
pieguyn - 1 (Gentlemen Bastards)
Soft-spoken - 1 (Quilford)
Gentlemen Bastards - 1 (pieguyn)
Rancid Broderick Drake - 1 (Soft-spoken)
Quilford - 1 (sangres)

Not Voting: YurikoJasmine

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Like, this votecount is disgusting. None of you are bad enough players to believe vanity wagons are a good thing for the health of the game, but none of you are really pushing any of your votes.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

Actually, I just noticed Nati was in that game, too.

Does Nati have any thoughts on Quilford? I did a CTRL + F search through Drake's ISO but I think only Muffin's talked about him?

Tbh, the extent of our conversation about Quilford has pretty much been me saying "I'm not really good at reading Quilford, you do it" and then Nati saying "me neither, you do it"

Something something about the way Quilford plays and not being able to read it on an emotional level or something.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

Or maybe that was just specific to this game. I dunno. I haven't got a hold of Nati in the past few days to talk about this game because both of our RL situations have been not-so-great.

I'll ask Nati to talk about stuff whenever she's on next.

[Rancid Broderick Drake]

[quote="In post 905, sangres"]it's a philosophical thing. If she's lynched and flips scum where does that lead tomorrow? What associations has she left?/quote]
This argument is dumb. If she's scum, she may not be leaving behind a massive trail of associative tells on her end but this isn't like a flash wagon that came out of nowhere. Yuriko (and the wagon itself) have been pretty consistently talked about for most of the day.