Star Trek Deep Space Nine Season 1 Mafia(game over!)

[Riabi]

Then argue there are 3 scum, and thus 3 unknown.

Or argue there are 5 scum, and thus only one unknown.

Having no opinion on the number of scum remaining does not really point towards you "trying to figure out the game".

I didn't say I have no opinion, you are likely right about 4, what I'm questioning is your level of confidence. And I'm questioning why you're using circular logic to defend your confidence. (We should massclaim because we have exactly 4 scum, I know we have 4 scum based on information that will come out if we massclaim). And I'm questioning why you're holding back on information that would appear to help town.

I don't have any "math" because "math" requires dealing with known numbers, and that's the issue, we don't have any known numbers. Sure, I acknowledge that you claim to have known numbers, but that doesn't really help any of the rest of us.

Caught in a lie. That or stupidity. Math is about solving unknown numbers, hence this entire section of math called Algebra that deals with variables and branches off to much more complicated math to solve for unknown numbers.

Ask yourself a question... Why would Riabi put the word math in quotes like that if he was then going to use it in a slightly different manner than the word might be traditionally used?

[MonkeyMan576]

Vote Count 6.01- Up to post 3495

PeregrineV[3]: NeroCain, Riabi, KlingonCelt
Riabi[1]: LittleGumball
St Augustine the Hermit[1]: Thor665
Sinsun1[1]: Titus
Not Voting[7]: davesaz, St Augustine the Hermit, Titus, Psyche, PergrineV, Suzune

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Day ends Sunday, August 9th, at 9 AM USA Mountain Time or when a lynch occurs

[/area]

[PeregrineV]

I didn't say I have no opinion, you are likely right about 4, what I'm questioning is your level of confidence. And I'm questioning why you're using Circular Logic to defend your confidence. (

We should massclaim because we have exactly 4 scum, I know we have 4 scum based on information that will come out if we massclaim

). And I'm questioning why you're holding back on information that would appear to help town.

We should massclaim because we have exactly 4 scum and 6 known town, we will know who the 4 scum are based on information that will come out if we massclaim.

Fixed the bolded part where you incorrectly represented what I said.

[PeregrineV]

Vote Count 6.01- Up to post 3495

PeregrineV[2]: NeroCain, Riabi
Riabi[1]: LittleGumball
St Augustine the Hermit[1]: Thor665
Not Voting[9]: KlingonCelt, davesaz, St Augustine the Hermit, Titus, Sinsun1, Psyche, PergrineV, Suzune

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Day ends Sunday, August 9th, at 9 AM USA Mountain Time or when a lynch occurs

[/area]

@Monkeyman

- Klingon is also voting me.

[Riabi]

Yeah, now you're really pulling shit out of your ass, now we have 6 conftown??!??!?

[PeregrineV]

Yeah, now you're really pulling shit out of your ass, now we have 6 conftown??!??!?

Yes. Don't sound so pissed off about it....

What I do find curious is how Peregrine is making all these assertions that he knows who is town and who isn't, and he still hasn't placed a vote. I often state my feelings and wait awhile to back them up with a vote, which is why I am hesitant of making that anything but null.

Its just intresting that of all the players opening in this round, he is the only one who didn't start the day with feelings on who we should be voting. That could be a personality qwerk, or a differentiation that singles him out as scum. IDK, I'm bad at this, I'll just leave my vote on Titus.

Thor is town.
Suzune is town.
Psyche is town.
I am town.
Based on yesterday's hammer desire by sinsun to show his power/clear him, he is town.
Based on narinain's clear, Gumball is most likely town.

There are 2 other townies left.

The massclaim could give us one or both. It would actually depend on Gumball's claim.

Then, there are 4 scum left.

If you wish to refute any of this, go slow, and start at the beginning.

[Riabi]

Proof? Evidence? Oh wait... let me guess, that's secret info?

[Riabi]

Your level of confidence in your case is COMPLETELY unjustified based on the evidence you've presented. As far as I'm concerned, there is nothing more for us to discuss until you explain WHY you are so confident.

[PeregrineV]

Proof? Evidence? Oh wait... let me guess, that's secret info?

Your level of confidence in your case is COMPLETELY unjustified based on the evidence you've presented. As far as I'm concerned, there is nothing more for us to discuss until you explain WHY you are so confident.

Use the public knowledge.

Thor claimed Post Restricted townie (covered in detail already)
Suzune claimed lightning rod (covered)
Psyche claimed tracker (covered)
sinsun1 can confirm himself (covered)
LittleGumball (cleared by cop)
Myself (take this on faith, or don't)

That's 6.

My previous calculation stands.

[Psyche]

sighh

[PeregrineV]

sighh

Yeah, kind of need Suzune to post something.

[Riabi]

Claims =/= confirmed. I'll accept gumball being cleared by the cop. Suzune isn't confirmed as town by any means, and I'm accepting her claim as LB. Maybe sinsun CAN confirm himself, but he hasn't yet. Thor's claim is weird, and in no way confirmed as town.

You have a bunch of "maybe"s. You even have a few "probably"s, but, in that list, you have at best one CONFIRMED town.

[PeregrineV]

Claims =/= confirmed. I'll accept gumball being cleared by the cop. Suzune isn't confirmed as town by any means, and I'm accepting her claim as LB. Maybe sinsun CAN confirm himself, but he hasn't yet. Thor's claim is weird, and in no way confirmed as town.

You have a bunch of "maybe"s. You even have a few "probably"s, but, in that list, you have at best one CONFIRMED town.

Yet, to me they are confirmed. You can argue they are scummy, but you also need to argue they are scummier than the remaining 5.

[Klingoncelt]

Didn't see it, but for today, I am hard reading Titus as scum and that's who I am dead set on lynching. Too many dead town have also scum read her.

Also just for the records if I were to take a gamble and have to guess ALL remaining scum in the game RIGHT NOW.

(In order of scumminess/preference)

1.) Titus
2.) Riabi
3.) Nero Cain
4.) Klingoncelt

You need to put yourself on this list, Sinsun.

[Riabi]

Yet, to me they are confirmed. You can argue they are scummy, but you also need to argue they are scummier than the remaining 5.

I'm not arguing that they are scummy, I'm arguing against the word "confirmed" which means that there is some evidence in the game that shows that they are absolutely without question town. With most of the people on your list, there is at least some chance that you are wrong about them, which means they aren't confirmed. I agree with you that if 1.) the 6 people you listed are conf-town and 2.) there are indeed, exactly 4 scum left, then we should massclaim. But since we don't have certainty on either of those, a massclaim seems like a devastating NK waiting to happen.

[Titus]

Mod, I am voting sinsun

@PV, You have played anti-town at best. Given our history with bullshit claims in InuYasha (friendly neighbor), I find your total refusal to try to neighborize after N1 scummy.

Second, we can all guess how many scum there are.
Third, LMG was not checked by Barn. That was HI and Thor fmpov.
Fourth, even if we presume four scum, there's no evidence to indicate massclaim clears people.
Fifth, your claim of positivity utility of massclaim based on the number of scum makes no sense.

[Klingoncelt]

@PerV, how many of your confirmed town were on the ika wagon? Oh right, maybe some of those are wrong. You're pushing on me extensively, when I should be the mostobvtown by play. I corralled the town into a scumlynch yesterday. By no means am I conftown, but I have to wonder just what kind of agenda you have.

Really? You're going to say you are the one that got Ika lynched? I'm the one that's been saying it out loud that the AA/Ika spot needs to do a lot of talking to make up for the 2 days of nothing from that slot. When nothing was produced, I voted and started to rally people to it through my case on that slot.

This is why I see the Ika lynch as somewhat non-conclusive:

I'm not counting Titus' vote on him, she and Ika would vote each other off as Town, as Scum, as 3rd parties, or as Town v Scum/3rd.

The slot was originally occupied by Millar13, who made 3 useless posts. AA9 took the slot and immediately went V/LA, then flaked. Total posts: 3.

Basically Ika took a lurker slot. We essentially lynched a lurker.

Therefore, don't pride yourself on your scumhunting skillz, Sinsun.

When you do it makes you look like Scum trying to get Town cred.

[Titus]

VOTE: PerV

No one is voting Sinsun and PerV is also scum.

[PeregrineV]

Yet, to me they are confirmed. You can argue they are scummy, but you also need to argue they are scummier than the remaining 5.

I'm not arguing that they are scummy, I'm arguing against the word "confirmed" which means that there is some evidence in the game that shows that they are absolutely without question town. With most of the people on your list, there is at least some chance that you are wrong about them, which means they aren't confirmed. I agree with you that if 1.) the 6 people you listed are conf-town and 2.) there are indeed, exactly 4 scum left, then we should massclaim. But since we don't have certainty on either of those, a massclaim seems like a devastating NK waiting to happen.

Of the remaining players, (besides yourself, of course), which NK would be the most devastating?

[PeregrineV]

@PerV, how many of your confirmed town were on the ika wagon? Oh right, maybe some of those are wrong. You're pushing on me extensively, when I should be the mostobvtown by play. I corralled the town into a scumlynch yesterday. By no means am I conftown, but I have to wonder just what kind of agenda you have.

Really? You're going to say you are the one that got Ika lynched? I'm the one that's been saying it out loud that the AA/Ika spot needs to do a lot of talking to make up for the 2 days of nothing from that slot. When nothing was produced, I voted and started to rally people to it through my case on that slot.

This is why I see the Ika lynch as somewhat non-conclusive:

I'm not counting Titus' vote on him, she and Ika would vote each other off as Town, as Scum, as 3rd parties, or as Town v Scum/3rd.

The slot was originally occupied by Millar13, who made 3 useless posts. AA9 took the slot and immediately went V/LA, then flaked. Total posts: 3.

Basically Ika took a lurker slot. We essentially lynched a lurker.

Therefore, don't pride yourself on your scumhunting skillz, Sinsun.

When you do it makes you look like Scum trying to get Town cred.

Are you for or against a massclaim today?

[Riabi]

Yet, to me they are confirmed. You can argue they are scummy, but you also need to argue they are scummier than the remaining 5.

I'm not arguing that they are scummy, I'm arguing against the word "confirmed" which means that there is some evidence in the game that shows that they are absolutely without question town. With most of the people on your list, there is at least some chance that you are wrong about them, which means they aren't confirmed. I agree with you that if 1.) the 6 people you listed are conf-town and 2.) there are indeed, exactly 4 scum left, then we should massclaim. But since we don't have certainty on either of those, a massclaim seems like a devastating NK waiting to happen.

Of the remaining players, (besides yourself, of course), which NK would be the most devastating?

I don't know. My point was that if we all massclaim, we'd be letting scum know the remaining PRs were, and we can't really afford to lose what few PRs we (probably) have left.

[Klingoncelt]

You mean, if I am certain there are 4 scum left, why have I not shared that fact?

I think I have.

Quite a few times.

No, I mean, what makes you so certain?

I built a mafia-playing AI whose sole job is to scumhunt using all of the information I gave it. Key indicators fed to it resulted in it telling me there are, with 99.9999% accuracy, 4 non-town roles in the game.

Or maybe secret information.

Go with the robot.

I built a mafia-playing AI whose sole job is to scumhunt using all of the information I gave it. Key indicators fed to it resulted in it telling me there are, with 99.9999% accuracy, 4 non-town roles in the game.

Or maybe secret information.

Go with the robot.

Yeah yeah, you've said it was secret information... and I'm trying to figure out why you won't share this info but instead you'd rather rolefish. To be frank, you're on my suspect list, and, I don't trust you. You keep making all of these readslists that assume this secret info, but for all we know it could be (intentionally?) misleading bullshit.

Riabli, my concern is how PerV has this secret info. How could he mechanically?

He's talking shit.

This is a 21-player game. With a 3:1 Town/Scum ratio, that makes for 5, maybe 6 Scum total.

The lack of extra NKs tells us that the possible 6th Scum isn't 3rd Party.

The fairly weak flipped and crumbed Town roles suggest that the possible 6th Scum is more likely a 16th Town.

1 Scum is dead.

There are only 4 Scum possible.

(I bet Sinsun's one of 'em.)

[Riabi]

He's talking shit.

This is a 21-player game. With a 3:1 Town/Scum ratio, that makes for 5, maybe 6 Scum total.

The lack of extra NKs tells us that the possible 6th Scum isn't 3rd Party.

The fairly weak flipped and crumbed Town roles suggest that the possible 6th Scum is more likely a 16th Town.

1 Scum is dead.

There are only 4 Scum possible.

(I bet Sinsun's one of 'em.)

This is all well and good (and probably correct) but even you leave room for error, you say that the 6th scum is

likely

actually a townie. It is likely that there are 4 scum left, but it's not "fact."

[Klingoncelt]

Vote Count 6.01- Up to post 3495

PeregrineV[2]: NeroCain, Riabi
Riabi[1]: LittleGumball
St Augustine the Hermit[1]: Thor665
Not Voting[9]: KlingonCelt, davesaz, St Augustine the Hermit, Titus, Sinsun1, Psyche, PergrineV, Suzune

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Day ends Sunday, August 9th, at 9 AM USA Mountain Time or when a lynch occurs

[/area]

@Monkeyman

- Klingon is also voting me.

Thank you for pointing that out. I just noticed it.

[Klingoncelt]

I'm voting against a massclaim AT THIS POINT IN THE DAY.

I need to think about this for a bit - and we have 10+ days until Deadline. If we do massclaim, it should be as close to Deadline as possible to hopefully prevent Scum from plotting and planning too much.