Greater Idea Mafia (Endgame)

Fro99er · Post Post #1507 (isolation #0) » Sat Sep 26, 2015 3:12 pm

Ika I'm good to play. FWIW NFL/NASCAR Sunday tomorrow so I will be V/LA tomorrow

Fro99er · Post Post #1508 (isolation #1) » Sat Sep 26, 2015 3:13 pm

Also...I have no idea what went down. I haven't been following this the past couple days.

Fro99er · Post Post #1509 (isolation #2) » Sat Sep 26, 2015 3:15 pm

I apologize if anyone was offended by my slot. I had zero to do with this.

Fro99er · Post Post #1520 (isolation #3) » Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:36 pm

Yo...can we all just have a fun game?

Fro99er · Post Post #1521 (isolation #4) » Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:37 pm

There's a reason this is called a GAME and not LIFE OR DEATH.

Why do people go mental over this?

Fro99er · Post Post #1847 (isolation #5) » Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:51 am

In post 1809, Luna Fox wrote:With those cards from G1 and G3 tho, do you think it was Sala or Frogger calling the shots there.

I already said I called the shots.

Fro99er · Post Post #2080 (isolation #6) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:39 am

Alright I'm here.

First

In post 1793, Kthxbye wrote:I do not buy that Mafia Compulsive Hider was an option for them in G2 AND G3 with myself also having the option of Mafia Compulsive Hider on G3 as well. I don't know what the odds of this happening randomly, but looking at the list of options that could have been rolled, it's fucking super low....low enough to warrant today's lynch.

This is the stupidest fucking argument.
hi
The probability of rolling three (or more) mafia hiders in 123 rolls (instead of 126, because I'm assuming if you roll mafia compulsive hider in one game, the moderator won't let you roll the same role twice in the same game...otherwise if this is allowable it's 126, but I'm using the lowest probability odds for kthxbye's sake) with 146 different possible choices is given by the binomial distribution.

I could write out the formula, but instead I'll just say go here to calculate it for yourself:
http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html

I've done that, and here are the results...

(note: n = number of rolls, k = 3 rolls or more being Maf Comp Hid, p = 1/146)

This says there is a 5.3% chance of there being at least 3 Mafia Compulsive Hiders in 126 rolls.

If we want to limit it to only half the rolls (so 3 in 63 rolls = 3*21 players), then the probability is 0.9%. Hardly impossible. And that's for one individual role. If we consider there are 117 roles where this could happen, then the odds of seeing at least ONE of these pop up three times is given again by the binomial probability where n = 117, k = 1, p = 0.009. Calculate that and you get 65%.

So yes, there is a 65% chance of seeing one of the unique roles rolled 3 times or more in 63 rolls.

Also - I am a statistician for a living.

Fro99er · Post Post #2081 (isolation #7) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:48 am

In post 2055, Kthxbye wrote:Assuming there are two, three person anti town factions

Why are you assuming this?

Fro99er · Post Post #2082 (isolation #8) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:52 am

In post 2080, Fro99er wrote:If we want to limit it to only half the rolls (so 3 in 63 rolls = 3*21 players), then the probability is 0.9%. Hardly impossible. And that's for one individual role. If we consider there are 117 roles where this could happen, then the odds of seeing at least ONE of these pop up three times is given again by the binomial probability where n = 117, k = 1, p = 0.009. Calculate that and you get 65%.

So yes, there is a 65% chance of seeing one of the unique roles rolled 3 times or more in 63 rolls.

Whoops...I want to use exactly one, not 1 or more, because to have more than 1 means then the probability is less than 0.9% for the rest because you'll need it to appear 3 in 60 rolls, etc.

But yeah, for exactly one...it's still 36.9%...still, it's hardly improbable that we see at least one of the unique roles rolled three times.

Fro99er · Post Post #2083 (isolation #9) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:01 am

In post 1834, hiplop wrote:Anti you really think rabble is most likely scum over fro9 and luna?

In post 1875, hiplop wrote:VOTE: rabble

What changed your mind in those 40 posts?

Fro99er · Post Post #2084 (isolation #10) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:02 am

In post 2029, hiplop wrote:5 deaths?!?!? LOL

Not a town reaction.

Fro99er · Post Post #2085 (isolation #11) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:02 am

VOTE: hiplop

Fro99er · Post Post #2086 (isolation #12) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:04 am

In post 2065, hiplop wrote:like give me some time holy shit its not like ive been lurking this game like you

How much time should we give you? Your iso is complete crap. No analysis in there whatsoever. Just "this guy is scum" or "that guys is scum".

And a whole bunch of other fluff.

Fro99er · Post Post #2093 (isolation #13) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:25 am

In post 2090, T S O wrote:I don't want hiplop on the table today - it won't happen, and that's the end of it. Frogger, you can camp your vote there if you want, my opinion of your slot couldn't be any worse in terms of alignment.

What, as third party?

Fro99er · Post Post #2098 (isolation #14) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:29 am

I assure you it's the latter. And as mentioned, I was essentially site V/LA last weekend and then when I came in to play I found out my hydra partner was kicked out of the game.

Fro99er · Post Post #2101 (isolation #15) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:33 am

I strongly agree.

VOTE: Shiro

Fro99er · Post Post #2105 (isolation #16) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:41 am

Hiplop, if you'll notice, I already mentioned I was V/LA last weekend then the lynch happened Monday. I've provided far more content than you today.

@TSO - you'll see I'm town in due time. I'll get to Shiro/Rabble soon

Fro99er · Post Post #2109 (isolation #17) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:44 am

In post 2106, Shiro wrote:Froggy do you retract sala's 3p claim ?

Yes.

His claim was purely to avoid being NK'd whil I was supposed to town up the slot just enough to avoid being lynched. So that I we could prove our towniness in due time with our power.

Fro99er · Post Post #2110 (isolation #18) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:44 am

In post 2108, T S O wrote:Shiro - your Saulus comments are rather damning. Unless you address them, you will either be lynched today or tomorrow.

You should do that.

Today.

Now.

Fro99er · Post Post #2144 (isolation #19) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:05 am

VOTE: rabble rabble rabble

Fro99er · Post Post #2193 (isolation #20) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:12 am

VOTE: grey's holly

Fro99er · Post Post #2195 (isolation #21) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:14 am

In post 2192, Shiro wrote:@TSO

I think it is level-1

Maaaaybe frogger

I trust Luna

I think if he's not a lone wolf then it's L 1-1.

I pushed ank D1 when I was here. Obviously I could have bussed if I was his buddy (I'm not) but just go read for yourself and form your own opinion on my ank push.

Fro99er · Post Post #2197 (isolation #22) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:21 am

Right, I could be (I'm not). But the point is TSO was saying that as ank listing his buddy in there, I believe.

Fro99er · Post Post #2226 (isolation #23) » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:09 am

Mod V/LA until Friday

Fro99er · Post Post #2340 (isolation #24) » Wed Oct 07, 2015 3:07 pm

Intent to

VOTE: rabble rabble rabble

sketch-hammer

Fro99er · Post Post #2378 (isolation #25) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:24 pm

The reason my post count has been low is I have the most apathy inducing role there is. I should have taken the scum role instead, but I told Sala I prefer town. I had never played as an unlynchable before and it just makes me not want to try. That and Sala's whole early ordeal while I was V/LA just put me off from even caring about this game all that much.

Go ahead and lynch me. It won't go through because I'm 1-shot unlynchable.

Fro99er · Post Post #2379 (isolation #26) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:25 pm

And I'm 100% town

Fro99er · Post Post #2380 (isolation #27) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:27 pm

ether west9 or Hiplop is scum.

Shiro could be werewolf

Fro99er · Post Post #2381 (isolation #28) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:30 pm

Meh. BotLane's ISO doesn't support Shiro as werewolf

Fro99er · Post Post #2382 (isolation #29) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:31 pm

Kthx seems super town

Fro99er · Post Post #2385 (isolation #30) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:35 pm

Because reasons.

Unvote and vote west9 with me.

Fro99er · Post Post #2386 (isolation #31) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:36 pm

Pedit: W9

VOTE: West9

Fro99er · Post Post #2389 (isolation #32) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:41 pm

I'll happily self hammer, but dont scum still get NK's if I get lynched?

Fro99er · Post Post #2390 (isolation #33) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:42 pm

Because then we're likely down another two townies. Don't know if we can afford that.

Fro99er · Post Post #2391 (isolation #34) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:42 pm

I guess that would leave us at 2-1-1 if the two remaining scum hit two separate town

Fro99er · Post Post #2393 (isolation #35) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:45 pm

Not necessarily. There are other confirmed town as well and when we lynch scum we can only lose 1 town, not 2 town

Fro99er · Post Post #2394 (isolation #36) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:46 pm

I'm not worried about MY survival. I'm worried about town's survival

Fro99er · Post Post #2396 (isolation #37) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:49 pm

Whatever.

I'm Saulus. W9 is likely my mafia buddy because I do not have a NK (I only get a NK if I'm last remaining scum). Hiplop's stance on me all game leads me to believe he is another scum faction but not mafia. Also, his claim is super safe.

VOTE: frogger

That is a hammer. I am now conftown.

Fro99er · Post Post #2397 (isolation #38) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:50 pm

And yes, Sala actually believed Titus was scum. We have no clue who is mafia as Saulus, so we had no idea Titus was also Saulus.

Fro99er · Post Post #2398 (isolation #39) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:51 pm

Funny thing is I've had to scum hunt my own mafia team. W9 pinged me as scum all game but I didn't want to say it yet.

Fro99er · Post Post #2399 (isolation #40) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:51 pm

Saulus also explains why Sala claimed survivor.

Fro99er · Post Post #2400 (isolation #41) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:51 pm

And now that I'm conftown I'm word vomiting

Fro99er · Post Post #2401 (isolation #42) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:53 pm

Oh now kthx has gone silent. How convenient...

Fro99er · Post Post #2404 (isolation #43) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:09 pm

Lol. You think I'd self hammer as scum?

Fro99er · Post Post #2405 (isolation #44) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:10 pm

In post 2402, hiplop wrote:sup frog

im town im afraid

Then who's the other scum beside W9?

Kthx Vedith or Shiro?

Fro99er · Post Post #2406 (isolation #45) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:12 pm

Kthx making me very nervous now for talking me into that self hammer.

Fro99er · Post Post #2407 (isolation #46) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:25 pm

IKAAAAAA COME FLIPPY FLIP

Fro99er · Post Post #2408 (isolation #47) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:26 pm

Also, kthx wasn't really suspected D1. According to his sig that means probscum...especially for getting me to out/self. Can't believe I fell for that.

Fro99er · Post Post #2409 (isolation #48) » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:45 pm

Fro99er · Post Post #2447 (isolation #49) » Wed Oct 14, 2015 8:26 am

Sorry I lost that game for either team I cold have been (mafia/town)

Didn't really have fun this game. Mainly because of my hydra partner's shenanigans and dominating the way we would play our role without really consulting with me in hydra PT.

Didn't really notice the modding, which I guess means it was was fine for me. Probably because I didn't give two shits about the game so I didn't care one way or the other how the modding worked (not a slam on ika at all. A slam on my own personal enjoyment of the game)