Open 612 - Bad Poets Society - Game Over - Town Win

[Ika Musume]

vote: duppin

[Ika Musume]

Alright I'm back.

My initial read was actually Trivium and Brunneis as scum partners. That is why I asked Trivium what he thought about them, but based on what has happened now I'd say that is unlikely.
I do however still believe there is a scum between the two of them, just not entirely sure I believe it is Brunneis.

Kling please convince me you guys aren't scum.

what made you think Trivium and Brunneis were scum partners here, and what specifically made you think there was scum in one of them afterward (rather than having individual reads on the two of them and going from there)?

[duppin]

Both of them we're getting a lot of attention, yet they chose to ignore each other. Brunneis was very vocal about pretty much everyone, called out lurkers etc (me), so it was very surprising to see them ignoring Trivium.
Kling is also usually has an opinion on everything that happens day 1, so that bothered me a little as well. But then later they finally interacted and it felt genuine. I still thought both of them were scummy, and that is why I was up for lynching either one.

[duppin]

In the end I voted on Trivium, because I did like Brunneis reads as in they made sense, while I didn't like anything Trivium said plus he kept ignoring my question.

[Errantparabola]

Pieguy you asked me for my reads on everyone. Sorry i havent been prompt with that, but this is me acknowledging your question and saying i will answer once i get my ass to a computer.

[Ika Musume]

I disagree with Trivium's arguments against Brunneis, and it makes me pause. It's hard to explain, but Trivium is saying that Brunneis should be trying to advance the game, instead of trying to 'look town'? Usually when scum want to look town, they try to ask questions, share reads, etc. Or, well.. Basically I don't like Trivium's case, and it makes me second-guess myself on Brunneis. Like, accusing then of trying to look town while also saying that they should be doing more to advance the game... There's no other way to look town without doing the latter, is there?

I don't get this. How exactly does Trivium using flawed reasoning to push Brunneis make Brunneis less scummy?

this was a good observation that mirrored what I thought at the time - my impression of Maxwell's 253 when I read it, as you can probably guess based on what I said last night, was that the focus on Trivium vs. Brunneis for this argument was entirely unnatural. the reasoning there was incorrect: Trivium posting a poor argument about Brunneis has nothing to do with Brunneis' alignment. I could potentially see it coming from scum, but I think it makes a lot of sense as town who's worried that the entire D1 shitfight is all-town and attempting to scum hunt those surrounding it.

Here's where I'm at. I think Ika is probably scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Ika

pie head here. my major priority game-wise just ended and i'm free tomorrow, so i should be able to

catch up

take over the world then.

promises to catch up and then posts like 3 fluff posts since then

It occurs to me that ika's kinda playing to his Scum meta atm.

Kinda? I'm 100% doing ym scum meta intentionaly i was waiting for ppl to realzie it.

Hi gm how ar eyou

this is such a shitty defense I can't even


If I had to choose between Brunneis and Trivium I would say that Trivium is more likely to be scum based on his awful defense. However, I think it's pretty scummy to make today's lynch a choice between these two players.

I didn't mind the case on me, tbh. if I saw a player basically lurkfucking the whole game when I thought the major focus was on town, I would point it out immediately, as ... I and other people are ... currently doing with people like duppin.

now, up to this point, I will admit that the sheer lack of any sort of push in makara's ISO makes me feel like all of this is irrelevant to anything because he didn't do anything to push it: it's fairly easy to take stances if you don't do anything to convince other people of them, build wagons on your scum reads, derail wagons on your town reads, or so forth. but this could as easily be explained by him being inactive in general, and if I think if he was scum, he would have been less likely to go about it in such a natural way (pointing out things that would have been less relevant to anything than his observation re: Maxwell), so I don't really mind it.

I'm still not scumreading Brunneis. I feel that most of what Brunneis is posting is town motivated.

My current scumreads are errant, ranger and a scumlean on greyfox. I'd like to see more content from duppin though.

I wouldn't be opposed to a massclaim and agree with Varsoons reasoning for it, although I'm not really good at setup reasoning.

I liked this reads list, in a position where I feel Brunneis is likely to be the scum-designated mislynch.

OK, per doc there's a roleblocker, so we have at most 4 Ts, i.e. at least 3 letters.

I thought Persivul making a beeline towards the setup as the first thing he did to get reads in the game looked town. it's relatively fakeable, but if I was looking at the game from the outside and wanted to get reads, it's the first thing I would have looked at, too (it's tempting to try and break shit so you can be lazy and not read anything).

Yeah, that'll teach me for trying to liven up a dull game.

Later...

this basically sums why I didn't mind Persivul's entrance. in a gamestate like this, I think someone walking in and trying to generate content and reduce apathy is, on the surface, a town trait - there is a nonzero chance scum would prefer to not put too much effort into doing shit and instead just sit back and let stuff happen, especially if the major wagon is on town. I would obviously expect to see it coming from scum if they were hoping to do something like gaining town credit by coming in and "shaking things up" or making a town-looking entrance, or scum hoping to take control of an apathetic game by posting a lot and hoping people follow them without actually thinking through it. the thing is, Persivul's "reads" were a troll vote on my slot and Brunneis being scum because of what all the conftowns did, which isn't what I'd expect from scum attempting to do any of this (it won't convince anyone and would probably only serve to piss people off, which, surprise, is what happened).

in other words, in either case, there's less direction here than I would expect from a scum player replacing into this situation. I can, on the other hand, see it coming from town attempting to generate content out of a game where they don't know what the hell they should be looking at.

Note that it's also based on a number of conftown voting him (seemed to be the only trend in their votes other than the actual D1 lynch), and especially that gm was on him before she died. I have high respect for her reads, and not much has happened in D2 to change things.

I'm responding to this while I'm here. having a bunch of conftown voting you is the same sort of thing as you voting a bunch of people who wind up being town: it doesn't mean shit unless you have reason to believe they're all not just misguided (and this is part of why I disliked this angle, it's in similar vein to why I dislike Ranger's angle Brunneis is getting lynched bc a lot of people are reading them as scum).

on the other hand, I do think this sort of POV kinda fits with what I pointed out earlier about him focusing on the setup, but I might be reading too much into it.

Post link to the soft claim please.

I would like duppin to respond to this (and in turn to know where Persivul was going with this).

[Ika Musume]

unvote:

I would like thoughts on the above post, I'm going to go through Brunneis at some point but they have a lot more posts so I wanted to get this out of the way first. I'll be back probably this afternoon (or if not, this evening).

[Varsoon]

Maybe I'm associating too much with your old avatar, Maxwell. So the newer posts aren't registering with me.
You've got this very straight-laced town-game that you run as scum but you also sweat a lot when under pressure or unsure what to do.
It makes it hard to make heads or tails of things, since that kinda seems to be your town approach/replicated easily as town.
I'm not sold on a Brunnies lynch. I think we should go for one of our lower-content posters.

[Persivul]

Notes on grayfox's ISO (chosen first as it's shortest):

Positives: brunn vote was reasonable, he had had a strange exchange with brunn previously and errant was the main wagon at the time

Negatives: commenting on others' conversations rather than directly engaging; 6 fluff posts in a row at one point; votes max out of the blue and announces it's a pressure vote, moves back to brunn in next post

Conclusion: scummy. Grayfox just isn't interested in catching scum, which means he probably is one.

[Errantparabola]

PREFACE.

I am going to attempt to make a series of posts talking about all the VT claims, sans me, as I work through their ISOs.
Thanks pieguy, for essentially making me get fully involved with this game instead of lingering in the sidelines, which I will admit to doing. I haven't been as deep into this game as I should be, and I'm taking the reads list request as an opportunity to make a full catch-up slash reread.
I'll be going down this list:

So, 4 Scum in:

Brunneis
Duppin
Errantparabola
GrayFox
Makara
MaxwellPuckett
Ranger


I'll make it easier - Brunneis is Town. So 4 of 6.

I won't bother with association reads just yet, I think it's better to analyze people individually first because I don't want to get tangled up in WIFOM scum buddying/distancing before I have a solid conclusion to every person.
I am going to try and list out some things that flag town and flag scum and try to lean one way on every person, no matter how small the lean, because null reads really are not helpful.
My thoughts will be typed out stream-of-consciousness style as I work through the ISO. If this bothers anyone, let me know and I'll try to fix it for the future.
Alright, down the rabbit hole I go. Wish me luck.

[Errantparabola]

BRUNNEIS

Since I am dealing with the person that weathered perhaps the most concentrated fire, I am going to do my best and dsiregard things said about Brunneis so that I can go into my read with a clean slate.

Cool?
Alright, let's do this.

95 looks town-motivated to me.
124 I don't like how Brunneis tosses out an association read without any justification, but it doesn't swing either way too much for me.
182 Brunneis acknowledges 173 from trivium and still scumreads him without directly responding to it. Essentially, they're holding onto that scumread based on a playstyle difference. Trivium doesn't admit to what he did being wrong, he points it out as a playstyle difference. Brunneis then latches on to GM's observation as WKing Trivium.
227 is the whole scripted argument as well as being defensive about the lack of reason as to people's Brunneis scumread. The latter is something that seems naturally frustrating for Brunneis and I don't think defensiveness is scummy here.
Same goes for 240.
243 looked originally to me like a scumpost but honestly I don't feel too much that way when thinking about it.
272 is interesting to me. Brunneis points out the deterioration of my wagon, which according to Ranger makes me super scum, but then goes on to townread me. If I were town, why would scum try to push for a different wagon?

This leads onto a bit of wagon analysis.
Brunneis points out that he is the counterwagon to my wagon. This makes be think that Brunneis and I can't both be town, because there would be no reason for scum to push on Brunneis if they already have me as a mislynch. It is my belief that the reason my wagon deteriorated so quickly was because Brunneis started redflagging other people. I personally don't really see it at this point, but a lot of the people on Brunneis' counterwagon at that point are now conftown. Which confuses me. A lot.

274 Don't like how this association read is the lens through which Brunneis is looking at everything

I couldn't find out something specific to say about the rest of D1 or the entirety of D2.
But I do think that ultimately the scumreads on Brunneis on D1 don't really consolidate with my personal read on Brunneis after reading D1.
However, I do think that D2 made Brunneis a lot less town. I don't like the entire speech about anti-massclaiming because that seems to be heavily scum-motivated. The position that we are in, post mass-claim, I believe favors town, and I think Brunneis was trying to prevent this from happening. However, I am willing to dismiss this because I do think that people are entitled to their own opinions about strategy and just because they might look antitown doesn't mean that they are. It does make me less confident about my townread on Brunneis.

Conclusion? Null-town.

I'm gonna grab some lunch and be back in about 4 hours.

[Persivul]

Maxwell ISO notes:

Begins by asking a lot of questions without creating much pressure. (In fact after I typed this I got to where they said “So many questions. It's like I always have questions.”) Votes brunneis because they're sheeping the IC. At this point I'm not feeling great about them. But 193, 200, 253 read somewhat like they're talking about strategy to themselves, which made me look at the join date and it's fairly recent and it makes sense. IMO most scum would be too self-conscious to post like that. Changes vote to Trivium and gives reasoning which I didn't fully follow. Opposes IC on Vedith and I believe something else, which I like. As the game progresses they offer more opinions instead of just asking questions. Briefly says they want to look at others rather than just jumping on brunn, which I like...BUT then they just jumps on Brunn.

Overall this reads town to me.

Lean town (only a lean due to the focus being limited to triv and brun - would really like to see more players being analyzed)

[Persivul]

Ranger ISO notes:

I went into this with low expectations because I believe Ranger has played poorly since my entrance. But, this was the best ISO I've seen yet. Very little fluff. Maintaining focus on primary targets but unlike others was pressuring some secondary suspicions as well. It was so consistently solid that I don't have specifics to point out.

Conclusion: town

[GrayFoxxxx]

Ok ranger,
I really don't like your posts but I like your brunn read.

600 , 610 and 612 really bother me. I feel like it could be scum bussing. I'm not sold on that part though.

D2 is basically your reads, and promises of explanations. Or to say you are too lazy(scum would never say that right??) to explain them. Why so secretive about the reads you have?

Lastly, it sort of looks like a scum slip when you said I wasn't scum or town. Why are you so sure about that?

The last part is potentially damning imo, pending your response.

I don't think brunn and ranger are buddies. Ranger and Errant possibly. I don't have a read on Errant right now I need to go back and iso him soon.

Rangers early obsession with him could be telling. Particularly if it was fake or not.

[GrayFoxxxx]

so many people need to die this game.

I (pieguyn) am fully caught up but I'm still half-delirious from power reading the game. first order of business: I find Brunneis to be incredibly, incredibly town and the only thing that would make me question it is ika disagreeing on it (we should have this sorted out when he gets off work or tomorrow if I'm asleep by then). my next two town reads are on Errant and makara/Persivul, but these are such weak reads I don't put any faith whatsoever in them at this juncture. that, plus not having had a chance to sync with ika yet, means I'm thinking the best approach for this situation is to play a round of question danmaku.

Errant, I like and agree with your recent point on Ranger, but I'm weirded out by the fact you haven't done anything outside of that this game day (and the fact you've been on V/LA hasn't had anything to do with this - my point here is when you *have* been here you still haven't given much in terms of outside reads). when you come back I'd like your reads on everyone in the room. just a tl;dr version is fine, we can work from there.

Persivul, I don't like your recent posts based around pushing Brunneis over having 3/4 town in their scum reads. what makes it coming from scum as opposed to misguided town? that said, I'm giving you a bit of leeway bc I'm assuming you haven't read everything yet, so I'd like if you could read the game, ISO Brunneis, etc. and give me updated reads based on actual play.

Maxwell, I think some of your recent posts have looked kinda town, but I strongly dislike your D1 play, namely the way you were perpetuating the Trivium/Brunneis shitfight that was going on. did you not have any other major scum reads? if I missed one, link please.

duppin, where the fuck are you?

Gray, you've done basically nothing but pdodge this entire fucking game, and I sure as hell don't remember you doing this in EOSD. why (538) do you think scum would necessarily have pushed a Brunneis lynch through if they were town when leaving them alive and lynching them later is a perfectly viable course of action (hell, you saw me/bork chain 3 mislynches in EOSD), and why do you not think this is what's happening on this game day? do you have any reads elsewhere? again, tl;dr version is fine, we can work from there.

Ranger, there is a lot I dislike about your posts, but the blaringly obvious thing is that you were pushing Errant was scum due to the L-1 wagon on her when _it was an RVS wagon_. someone being at L-1 means jack shit in RVS when random flashwagons can happen just for the sake of it, and objectively speaking, this should be common sense. you also pushed this, while mostly flat-out ignoring most of what happened elsewhere in the game. I also pretty strongly disagree with your recent read on Brunneis (which came after a sizable wagon on Brunneis had developed and I'm pretty sure you refused to elaborate on it when asked?) so I'd like if you could walk me through (or point if I missed it) what you're seeing there in more detail. I have more and this will come when I'm not half lucid, but I'm starting here.

if it's not obvious, lack of a vig claim means Varsoon is confirmed town, and thus if there's a vig trying to remain hidden for <insert shit reason here> they need to claim right the fuck now or be policy lynched.

At that point I wanted brunn to explain why he wasn't mislynched as town, when he was so close. I had the mindset (sort of still do) that scum could be partially bussing him for towncred incase of flip, without pushing the lynch all the way.

Weak read yea I know but as slow as the game was at that point it was my best guess. I'm a little less confident in it now because of brunn interactions with ranger. But ranger could be pulling some sort of blitz move and pushing both of his buddies.

Keeping vote on Brunn for now.
F.o.S on ranger.

[Brunneis]

Hello, everyone..... Been a few pages since this head popped back up.

I just turned 17 this past week, so wheeeeee.

I've been reading these last few pages.... Quite a bit to process, I'm just going to delve into what had stood out for me so far since I haven't exactly synced with Klingon yet:

Both of them we're getting a lot of attention,

yet they chose to ignore each other

. Brunneis was very vocal about pretty much everyone, called out lurkers etc (me),

so it was very surprising to see them ignoring Trivium.

Kling is also usually has an opinion on everything that happens day 1, so that bothered me a little as well. But then later they finally interacted and it felt genuine. I still thought both of them were scummy, and that is why I was up for lynching either one.

Back up a moment,

When have I EVER ignored Trivium?

Most of my posts involved Trivium in some form, and I even had a back in forth with him.

108 - I made my opinion on his stance.
Or 258 - Where I argued against his weak argument AND engaged with him.
The same thing in 288...
And 373 - But he never really answered to me in these posts.

This isn't even counting Klingons posts. Or at least half my overall case on Trivium in D1.

I'm just not following your thinking here of how we could have both been scum. This is kind of a misrep, and makes me question duppins read formation and consistency a little....

Plus, Trivium ignored a lot of peoples questions other than both of ours.

BRUNNEIS

This leads onto a bit of wagon analysis.

Brunneis points out that he is the counterwagon to my wagon. This makes be think that Brunneis and I can't both be town, because there would be no reason for scum to push on Brunneis if they already have me as a mislynch.

It is my belief that the reason my wagon deteriorated so quickly was because Brunneis started redflagging other people. I personally don't really see it at this point, but a lot of the people on Brunneis' counterwagon at that point are now conftown. Which confuses me. A lot.

274 Don't like how this association read is the lens through which Brunneis is looking at everything

I couldn't find out something specific to say about the rest of D1 or the entirety of D2.
But I do think that ultimately the scumreads on Brunneis on D1 don't really consolidate with my personal read on Brunneis after reading D1.
However, I do think that D2 made Brunneis a lot less town.

I don't like the entire speech about anti-massclaiming because that seems to be heavily scum-motivated.

The position that we are in, post mass-claim, I believe favors town, and I think Brunneis was trying to prevent this from happening. However, I am willing to dismiss this because I do think that people are entitled to their own opinions about strategy and just because they might look antitown doesn't mean that they are. It does make me less confident about my townread on Brunneis.

Conclusion? Null-town.

I'm gonna grab some lunch and be back in about 4 hours.

2 things here

1)

Could you link where I pointed this out? I'm not understanding your train of thought here

You're saying we both can't be town - because scum wouldn't need to push me if they wanted to mislynch you?

Are you saying that either:

A)

I somehow deliberately put a wagon on myself as scum

B)

Scum bussed their partner (me) when you were nearing L-1

C)

You're not town because you're insinuating that I'm not scum, and that whoever wasn't conftown on my wagon, is most likely scumbuddies?

D)

We are both town, and everything else in C still applies.

I'm confused here too....

2)

Sorry, but where was this "anti-massclaiming speech" from? Originally, my other head launched the vote on Varsoon on the idea that he wasn't being truthful, I wasn't entirely familiar with the set-up so I continued to question the idea of anti-massclaiming.

No time in here was I solely against massclaiming - The most was that I questioned Varsoons word and didn't want to go through claiming as I already did in D1. Yes, I didn't like the idea of going on setup theory and massclaiming at that point, but that doesn't mean I tried to prevent it.

Plus, I wasn't in entire agreement with my other head and I wanted to be in sync with them before being sheep-wagoned a second time, but it was too late.

Lastly, it sort of looks like a scum slip when you said I wasn't scum or town. Why are you so sure about that?

You say him being unsure about his read on you is a scum slip

But you didn't notice his scumslip about him knowing about 4 mafia.

Keeping vote on Brunn for now.
F.o.S on ranger.

Cool, while you keep your vote on one person the same person you've had it on for the past 8 pages without responding to that much at all

You then cast suspicion on the person they pushed against.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Yeah, I'm suspicious of the 3 above and I'd like a response.

>>>

A lot of these reads are before I discuss with Klingon, so some of this is liable to change.

As for some others? I didn't like Persivul's entrance, but I like how they're sorting out the town and taking time to share reads and ISOs... It seems town-motivated. But I want to see more of them before I make a more definitive read.

Ika Musume seems to be putting in a lot here, normally I wouldn't like someone claiming to be playing their scum game on one half of a hydra in D1 - but I'm going to need to look at their recent posts in depth, I do get a good townvibe.

This head of the hydra has never played with Max before, but I've gotten strong townvibes from him since D1 - though, I could see where the suspicion on him is coming from.

[Errantparabola]

Hi, just wanted to check in to say that I am blatantly and unabashedly breaking my promise of a full and complete ISO analysis in 4 hours because family friends are visiting and I must spend time with them, because society has rules.
That being said, I read your whole post, Brunneis, and I will respond to it. But I think it's pretty good.
That also being said, hope you had a nice birthday.

[Varsoon]

Happy Birthday, Brunnies.
At this point, I'm really trying to figure out if GreyFoxx is part of the scum team being offered up as a sacrifice or just the weakest link in the two town out of six player pool.

[Brunneis]

Brunneis' heads are both agreed on Duppin, Errant, and Gray, not necessarily in that order, as Scum.

Persival, Maxwell, and Ranger we see as Null or Town, but we aren't in full agreement.

klingoncelt

[Ika Musume]

unvote:

I would like thoughts on the above post, I'm going to go through Brunneis at some point but they have a lot more posts so I wanted to get this out of the way first. I'll be back probably this afternoon (or if not, this evening).

this is going to have to be tomorrow, unfortunately, I'm tired as fuck rn.

[Ika Musume]

Taly:

1. what didn't you like about Persivul's entrance?

2. I'm conftown, so you shouldn't have to worry about forming a read on me.

[The Fire Hermit]

duppin is extremely more reactive than proactive. More defensive than actually trying to find scum it seems.
Which is scummy.

He should have more votes on him.
Is my slot voting him?

If not:
VOTE: Duppin

[duppin]

I would like duppin to respond to this (and in turn to know where Persivul was going with this).

I already responded to this in 722.

Back up a moment,

When have I EVER ignored Trivium?

Most of my posts involved Trivium in some form, and I even had a back in forth with him.

108 - I made my opinion on his stance.
Or 258 - Where I argued against his weak argument AND engaged with him.
The same thing in 288...
And 373 - But he never really answered to me in these posts.

No offense, but did you even read what we were talking about?
We were talking about how my read changed on you. My initial read were that you were scum buddies, but then I changed my opinion later, BECAUSE of the posts you just linked. So really?
And yes you did mention him in 108, but you didn't say much. I was biased yes, but at that time it felt more like a scum just wanting to get a little post in on his buddy. You didn't really add pressure to him and overall your comment was pretty harmless.
The rest of your posts are exactly why I changed my read on you guys being scum buddies.

About the part about him not answering anyone, I do not see how that is relevant. The only reason I mentioned it, was because when I had to choose between you and Trivium I went for Trivium since you actually responded to me while he didn't.

Brunneis' heads are both agreed on Duppin, Errant, and Gray, not necessarily in that order, as Scum.

Persival, Maxwell, and Ranger we see as Null or Town, but we aren't in full agreement.

If you do not mind me asking Kling, what changed your mind? I want Kling to respond, not you Taly.

duppin is extremely more reactive than proactive. More defensive than actually trying to find scum it seems.
Which is scummy.

He should have more votes on him.
Is my slot voting him?

If not:
VOTE: Duppin

I'm sorry, what? This is a terrible read. Obviously I am going to respond to people asking me questions - What did you expect?
I've already stated that my vote is most likely going to end up on either Brunneis or Persivul's slot.

Other than that I've been paying attention to the Ranger vs Errant discussion as well. It bothers me a little to be honest.
I am leaning town on Errant, and I think Ranger's ISO looks pretty good, but for some reason it doesn't feel like TvT to me.

[duppin]

Also since it seems like no one has actually brought it up, I guess I might as well do it.

This was the train on Brunneis 12 hours before the deadline day 1.

Brunneis - GrayFoxxxx,

The Fire Hermit

,

Trivium

,

goodmorning

.

That is 3 confirmed town.

Then makara (Persivul's slot) voted on Trivium (even though Brunneis was the leading train at that point), because he found Brunneis to be more scummy.
And then I did pretty much the exact same thing, but since I know I am town, I believe this is yet another reason to look at makara. I also do not believe it would make sense for me to be scumpartners with Brunneis, but I'm obviously biased.

If Brunneis is truly town, perhaps GrayFoxxxx is worth looking into, but I doubt Brunneis wouldn't get lynched day 1 if they had 4 towns voting on them - I believe scum would rather kill off them than Trivium if that was the case to be honest.

I'm going to vote on either Brunneis or Persivul, and I do believe there is a chance both of them are scum. If you'd rather mislynch me, then go ahead. Voting on me for 'pressure' will gain you nothing at all, since I already claimed and I am town so it's not like I am going to slip.

[duppin]

Sorry, I mean makara voted on Trivium because he found Trivium to be more scummy.*