Newbie 1673: University of Mafiascum Class 108 - D4- OVER!

[Usted]

I've heard that a true random RVS is frowned upon.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Random_Vote

Clearly states at the bottom that a truly random vote is frowned upon

[newbieinmafia]

I read about what Huntress said in one of the few games I read. I don't know if it's banned but the person who explained his RVS using RNG was questioned because the point of RVS is to get into discussion quickly but RNG doesn't help with that.

Giving intent to hammer Huntress

- probably tomorrow night

[Extrapolated Eagle]

I'll take this to Mafia Discussion Thread post game then, this actually makes me feel sick.

[Workdawg]

Wow... lots of interesting stuff going on right now.

First off

WIFOM this VOTE: Eagle

This literally made me laugh... so yeah.

On Huntress...

I am very skeptical of her "it's RVS, not random" stuff. I understand that RVS isn't "roll the dice and pick a random player to vote" random. It's more like "pick some weird reason to vote and do it" random. TheDom seems to do that with his vote

VOTE: extrapolating
Will we need to know what hat extrapolating means for the test?

Furthermore, newbie pushes this same issue early on...

Hi guys,
It seems like we should be out of RVS so I won't be voting.
For now, I find EE over-analyzing or reaching. Kahlan didn't threaten to vote you because you are voting her. She merely defended herself. But I am not sure if EE's jumping to conclusion is scummy or not so I am not willing to put him at L-1. I find it too early since someone can accidentally (or scum) hammer to end the day early.
I find most others (Usted, Drixx and Kahlan; although I agree with EE that Kahlan uses her newbie card a lot) null except Dominator.
@Dominator Why join the wagon and park your vote if you are V/LA?

FoS: Dominator

I am not voting Dom because he's V/LA and I don't want to push someone who might not be there.

Also, to someone who asked how much experience we have, I don't have much but I have been reading a few games here and played a game here a few months ago but I replaced out due to not having enough time.

My vote was RVS.

So newbie straight up asks TheDom why he would join EE's wagon and go V/LA. TheDom responds "My vote was RVS." I suppose it's possible that TheDom subscribes to this RVS isn't random thing that Huntress is talking about. However, in post 204 TheDom votes for EE AGAIN. He never changed votes. That, to me, says that his vote was "RVS" random and that now he believes that there is enough information to confirm his vote is no longer RVS. That or he's just straight up not paying attention to the game and literally doesn't know where his vote is. I guess based on TheDom's play, either could be possible. Though why wouldn't he just say "it wasn't really random, I was testing his reaction". I really can't figure out how this makes sense.

This is a large ping on my scumdar in the direction of Huntress.

---

Soul and Kahlan's discussion about accidentally lynching the other PR... Soul's latest post looks a little bit like IoA. "Let me post all this statistical analysis", but when I read Kahlan's post I was thinking pretty much the same thing. So I guess that a not significant right now.

[Usted]

I read about what Huntress said in one of the few games I read. I don't know if it's banned but the person who explained his RVS using RNG was questioned because the point of RVS is to get into discussion quickly but RNG doesn't help with that.

Giving intent to hammer Huntress

- probably tomorrow night

Could you elaborate a little more on why you find Huntress scummy?

[Workdawg]

I had to go back and review the current vote count to make sure where we stand because I just remembered that we are fast approaching the deadline. I would prefer a lynch on Soul or Eagle (not EE... just noticed your sig), but apparently no one agrees with me at all. As I said above, TheDom's original "RVS" vote and Huntress' not so great (IMO) justification of it is a big hit to her townie-ness (again, IMO), so I wouldn't be upset about lynching her today. My record as town is pretty bad, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if my reads are just totally off.

[newbieinmafia]

I read about what Huntress said in one of the few games I read. I don't know if it's banned but the person who explained his RVS using RNG was questioned because the point of RVS is to get into discussion quickly but RNG doesn't help with that.

Giving intent to hammer Huntress

- probably tomorrow night

Could you elaborate a little more on why you find Huntress scummy?

Not a lot of scum hunting. I mentioned about her in 440 and 520.
Why do you find Huntress scummy?

I had to go back and review the current vote count to make sure where we stand because I just remembered that we are fast approaching the deadline. I would prefer a lynch on Soul or Eagle (not EE... just noticed your sig), but apparently no one agrees with me at all. As I said above, TheDom's original "RVS" vote and Huntress' not so great (IMO) justification of it is a big hit to her townie-ness (again, IMO), so I wouldn't be upset about lynching her today. My record as town is pretty bad, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if my reads are just totally off.

I am okay with either Soul or Huntress lynch.

[Usted]

Honestly I only switched my vote to Huntress because I wanted to see if anyone would Unvote (I suspected Eagle would). However, it was you. I never had any intention of leaving my vote there. However, I find it very unlikely that Huntress is a PR, because they would be pretty much forced to claim at this point.

UNVOTE:

intent to hammer Eagle

Newbie. Why are you ok with a soul/huntress lynch but not an EE lynch. We also know that workdawg has a very strong scum game. I currently don't have any solid town reads at the moment. But I think EE is my biggest scum read, followed by you newbie. I realize my voting pattern has been beyond strange today, but that's mostly because I wanted to see what would happen if I applied pressure in various places.

I have voted Eagle, Huntress, and Soul(that's if my memory is serving me well). 2 of those are now L-1.

[newbieinmafia]

I didn't unvote because of your vote.

Eagle responses seem more town to me than soul/huntress. I switch between town and null for him. I had him at null before but then his answer in 473 feels town. scum!him might not have mentioned about Direfire (if Eagle was trying to throw suspicions at me) whom he also feels is detached like me but he misread and that player turns out to be town.

[newbieinmafia]

Usted, what's your read on Huntress?

[soulmonarch]

Soul and Kahlan's discussion about accidentally lynching the other PR... Soul's latest post looks a little bit like IoA. "Let me post all this statistical analysis", but when I read Kahlan's post I was thinking pretty much the same thing. So I guess that a not significant right now.

Hmmm, I see your point. And I do notice that anytime I post actual analysis a few people immediately call it scummy, so this is obviously something a number of people consider a tell. That said, all of that is actually the process my brain runs through in order to make any decision. (It's my debate team history showing. ><) I try to only share it when relevant to someone else's question, or I specifically want to try and prove a point that I believe in.

Personally, I'd prefer it if people posted hard analysis more often, at least then I'd be able to actively tell if they were lying or not.

[Kahlan]

So since usted unvoted doesn't that mean huntress is no longer at L-1? That would make just eagle at L-1. I'm also curious as to why eagle isn't trying to talk his why out of getting lynched? Usually when he gets acused of something he is pretty quick to defend himself. He seems to really want huntress gone and maybe because she was so close to being lynched he doesn't feel the need to defend himself? I'm just a bit curious as to why eagle hasn't tried to talk people to save himself from getting lynched. It's like he know huntress will get lynched so he has no need to fear?

[Usted]

My read in Huntress is null leaning town. But honestly that could change. It might be beneficial to go back and see if perhaps Dom left this game because he didn't like his role card.

[Workdawg]

Holy crap, giant fail on my part. I looked at the VC on the last page but forgot to actually look at the changes to the votes. Huntress pretty much hid the L-1 statement not only in a second post, but it's barely bolded at all. Ugh.

@Zar - Could we get an official vote count please?

If my count is correct, there are two votes on Huntress (L-2) and three on Eagle, currently at L-1. Newbie and Usted are currently not voting, though Usted has no claimed intent to hammer. I think Kahlan's vote for Eagle threw me off. I thought it was a joke, and now he's at L-1.

When I posted last night I figured the with Newbie's intent to hammer that the Huntress train had left the station. Especially considering Huntress' responses to the RVS situation seem like BS to me.

I'm going to VOTE: UNVOTE temporarily as reread last night and today's posts. I don't want today to end QUITE yet.

[Kahlan]

@workdawg usted has claimed intent to hammer on eagle. That's why I was wondering why eagle hasn't been defending himself. I intially did vote as a joke but as of right now since eagle doesn't seem to care that he was at L-1 had me concerned that's why I'll keep my vote on eagle for now. Plus with huntress I can see how she looked like she hid her L-1 on eagle because I got accused for the same thing once before but how are you suppose to make it more well known if bolding doesn't seem to catch people's eyes? She did say it twice and since she did that I didn't think she was trying to hide it.

[Kahlan]

So If just bolding the L-1 part is hiding it then soul looks like he was hiding the L-1 against huntress earlier. He just put the L-1 in bold.

[Zar]

Day 2, Votecount 12

Huntress (2): Extrapolated Eagle, soulmonarch
Extrapolated Eagle (2): Kahlan, Huntress

Not Voting (3)

: newbieinmafia, Workdawg, Usted

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Tuesday January 27, 2016 11:15 PM  New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-01-28 00:15:00)

[Zar]

Mod is having network difficulties and having to post VCs from phone is a little hard. Hopefully this will resolve by the end of today

[Workdawg]

@Kahlan

- Can you explain your vote for Eagle? Your last set of reads (post 495 has Soul as your top scum read (and a vote for him) and you even changed to Newbie after that. I don't see you talking about Eagle in between at all. In fact, the context of your vote seems like it's simply vindictive, which is pretty scummy. From what I can tell, everyone is trying to help you understand WIFOM, and then when Eagle chimes in with his thoughts, you jump on his wagon. I mean, you didn't even respond to him and it seems like you've just been ignoring him for a while. I have a town read on you, but this... this really confuses me.

pedit:

I see you talked about your vote a little bit above, but I think my comments are still relevant. In response to your latest post...

Between the small amount of bold and the second post to say it, it's hard to notice, I dunno. It could be an easy oversight, I just missed it and I'm mad at myself for that.

I'm getting a sinking feeling about this. I know that I said that I'd prefer an Soul/EE lynch, but the more I think about Huntress, the more I like that wagon better. All the content that she's actually provided recently just doesn't sit right with me. I mean, is it just me that finds that whole "RVS" thing scummy? I know she's trying to talk her way out of it, but I think TheDom's actions there pretty much refute what Huntress is trying to say. She hasn't responded that my latest post on it though, so I guess we'll see what she has to say about that.

[Huntress]

I'll take this to Mafia Discussion Thread post game then, this actually makes me feel sick.

Probably a good idea. All the discussion threads I could find on it were several years old.

I am very skeptical of her "it's RVS, not random" stuff. I understand that RVS isn't "roll the dice and pick a random player to vote" random. It's more like "pick some weird reason to vote and do it" random. TheDom seems to do that with his vote

If you understand this, then why did you claim that either the vote was suspicious or that Dom was lying about it being rvs? I'm really not getting what you don't understand here.

So newbie straight up asks TheDom why he would join EE's wagon and go V/LA. TheDom responds "My vote was RVS." I suppose it's possible that TheDom subscribes to this RVS isn't random thing that Huntress is talking about. However, in post 204 TheDom votes for EE AGAIN. He never changed votes. That, to me, says that his vote was "RVS" random and that now he believes that there is enough information to confirm his vote is no longer RVS. That or he's just straight up not paying attention to the game and literally doesn't know where his vote is. I guess based on TheDom's play, either could be possible.

Yep, it's entirely possible that he forgot he was still voting for Eagle when he made his non-rvs vote.



I said earlier that Eagle didn't seem to fit with Workdawg, which was due to Work's votes on Eagle but 555 and 563 are changing my mind on that. It looks like he thought it was safe to vote his buddy but has made excuses to get off the wagon now it's getting serious. Still not sure due to the Day one wagon but looking back at Work's posts on Eagle there that could have been distancing too.

[Kahlan]

@workdawg I have a few reasons in that same reads post (#495) about why I felt eagle was/is scum. I have thought that awhile. If we read my ISO you'll see I have a few FoS on him too. But You are right in the way I voted for him probably wasn't the best. I truly did it because I actually thought eagle would have jumped on it and asked me what the heck or something. So unless he didn't see it, take it serious or didn't feel the need to acknowledge it which was a bit weird on his part. I usually bug him a lot when I accuse or point the finger his way he usually reaponds and I thought for sure he would react to what I had posted. I didn't really respond to anyone's post when they were explaining WIFOM because I didn't feel a need to because no one asked a question. I just took them as information post. I haven't been ignoring eagle I thought for sure I would get a argument out of him for my post but he was/is too busy going at it with huntress.

The problem I see is can we really base information off the Dom? Sure huntress is trying to make people see her side of it because people keep comparing her and her actions to the Dom when in reality she is s different person/player. I don't think what the Dom did should be held against her. He was a bad player to begin with. Drixx had even pointed out earlier ( if you want to post I can find it) in the game that the Dom plays similar in all his prior games. Posting very little and probably looking scummy for doing it. So I feel we are comparing the two so much when in reality huntress has posted/played more.

I want to also point out that usted is no longer voting for her and he is town, I'm not voting for her and I'm town. So if you or newbie decide to vote for her and lynch her that would mean her supposed partner in crime the other scum member is willing to lynched her. So either huntress is not scum or her partner doesn't like her very much if they are willing to lynch her.

[soulmonarch]

...I mean, is it just me that finds that whole "RVS" thing scummy? I know she's trying to talk her way out of it, but I think TheDom's actions there pretty much refute what Huntress is trying to say.

I don't think you are the only one. I know my vote for her is partially based on the belief that Dom may very well have been scum, and partially on her play since she replaced him.

[soulmonarch]

The problem I see is can we really base information off the Dom? Sure huntress is trying to make people see her side of it because people keep comparing her and her actions to the Dom when in reality she is s different person/player. I don't think what the Dom did should be held against her.

True. But this isn't about who Huntress is as a person -- it's about what her role card says. If Dom was scum, then Huntress inherited the position along with any mistakes he may have made before she showed up. So it's at least a valid line of questioning.

[Kahlan]

@soul that is true but how are we to know for sure the Dom/huntress is scum or if it'sjust the way he presented himself was scummy which in turn is judgement on the player and his actions. We all at one point have done something people have pointed out as scummy so how is what the Dom did any different? We can't really ask the Dom what he was thinking or why he did what he did. I think huntress is answering to her best abilities.

[Workdawg]

I am very skeptical of her "it's RVS, not random" stuff. I understand that RVS isn't "roll the dice and pick a random player to vote" random. It's more like "pick some weird reason to vote and do it" random. TheDom seems to do that with his vote

If you understand this, then why did you claim that either the vote was suspicious or that Dom was lying about it being rvs? I'm really not getting what you don't understand here.

I think I see what you are getting at here, and it's way back in post 534:

I can see that. Doing so would mean that the vote isn't truly random though, right?

TheDom claimed it was in post 206.

So either it was truly RVS, which I would say is suspicious. Or it was put there on purpose to get a reaction and TheDom lied about his intentions.

Since you know his (and now your) alignment, I'm interested about what you think about that...

So yes, I guess my statement doesn't really make sense since both cases I presented are pretty much the same. I meant to say that "either it truly was RVS,

which I am suspicious of

. Or he lied about his intentions." So that's a mistake on my part, but it lead to all of this very interesting discussion.

Regardless of that, let's analyze what's been said about this. There are two possible cases, right?

1. TheDom's vote was "random"
2. TheDom's vote was not "random"

In the first case, there is no issue, it happened to be on Eagle and put him at 3 votes.
In the second case, there is an issue. He intentionally put Eagle at 3 votes and then went V/LA.

Knowing which case is correct leads to different reads on Huntress. If case 1 is true, then there is no information there. However, if case 2 is true, that leads to a scummy read (IMO) because TheDom voted intentionally for Eagle and then LIED ABOUT IT. If we have no way to know the truth then we can only speculate based on the information in the thread. I've laid out my speculation based on this, so I won't rehash it. BUT, what if we do know the which case is the truth? Perhaps if TheDom TELLS us which is the truth. Like he does in post 206.

Now this leads to a little bit more speculation on whether he meant "My vote was RVS." as "my vote was random" or "my vote occurred during RVS but was actually intended to put pressure on Eagle". Go read post 206 again and tell me which you think is the case? I don't see how you can actually think TheDom meant anything other than "my vote was random".

This seems to give credence to case #1, which wouldn't even really be an issue. The problem that is stuck in my mind is why is Huntress trying so hard to defend this action when a simple "I don't know, it was probably random" would have been acceptable. Instead she brings up this whole "it's probably not even random" stuff to try and justify it. She seems to be trying to justify case #2 for no reason, which leads me to believe that she thinks it was case 2. The only reason for her to think it was case 2 instead of case 1 would be if TheDom had a reason to lie about his vote, and the only reason he would have lied about it would be if he were scum.

VOTE: Huntress

---

I said earlier that Eagle didn't seem to fit with Workdawg, which was due to Work's votes on Eagle but 555 and 563 are changing my mind on that. It looks like he thought it was safe to vote his buddy but has made excuses to get off the wagon now it's getting serious. Still not sure due to the Day one wagon but looking back at Work's posts on Eagle there that could have been distancing too.

If you look back at my post 509 and Eagles response in post 513, you'll see that I misread some of his posts, which was giving a big bump to my read on him.

Spoiler: Quoted for reference

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

I just doubt scum would get into a discussion like that over power roles. It seems like it only makes him look scummier. And I was town reading him before that and agree with his views. I've gone to say things and then seen them better said by soul. Very not interested in his lynch today.

I don't really like that first post, and that followup... Defending your partner with some WIFOM?

Huntress is number one.

Strong town are kahlan and soul, with Usted, although I agree with soul he seems a bit.. shady about the ordeal. Newbie is... nullish. Detached. As does workdawg, but I'd prefer a newbie lynch over work, I think/.

And that's because Huntress opened with vote on work, which I think is unlikely as scum.

What? These are consecutive posts. Huntress is number one, because of an action that is unlikely as scum? Are you replying to different things here or what, because that makes NO sense at all.

Ugh. No, silly. I'm saying it's unlikely you're scum with huntress because she opened with a vote on you. I'm not saying that makes her any more or less scummy, I'm saying it makes it more likely that youre scum together.

*facepalm*

I'm going to "climb fast" if you intentionally misread my posts, buddy.

Doh, sorry. That actually makes sense. I pointed out that they were consecutive but didn't actually read them as one paragraph. My bad.

I never unvoted before because he was, and still is, on my list of scum. However, as I've mentioned before, Soul is still there and Huntress is now even higher. Right now I'd put it at Huntress, Soul, Eagle, in that order. Eagle was slightly ahead based on my misunderstanding of his post, but since he clarified it, he dropped slightly below Soul again.

---

@Kahlan

- About the Eagle stuff... He does like to argue with you and it is curious that he didn't really react to you. I suspect the reason for that is because normally he reacts negatively towards you when you misunderstand things. Just throwing a vote on him isn't really giving him anything to get riled up about. I think that's a pretty sneaky move though, I like it.

About Huntress' slot, because Huntress replaced TheDom, we know that her role is the same as his was. She takes his place in the game completely, role and all. That means that any of his actions that can be read as scummy make that slot, and thus her, look scummy as well. The same goes for actions that make the slot look like town. You have to analyze both players and apply all the conclusions you draw to that slot. That is something that makes replacing into a game tricky for players, but thankfully people are willing to do it because it would be worse for everyone if no replacement was made.

So yes, TheDom's actions should definitely be considered when determining if the slot Huntress now occupies is town or scum.