Newbie 1676 | Hungarian Nóták | Endgame

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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:12 am

Post by Plotinus »

Official Vote Count 3.03 Egy asszonynak kilenc a leánya


Egy asszonynak kilenc a leánya, nem győzi számlálni,
Minden este kiáll a kapuba, így kezd kiabálni:
Erzsi, Piri, Sári, Juliska, Rozáli,
Ella, Bella, Juci, Karolina, gyertek vacsorázni.

Végig megyek a debreceni utcán, kacagnak a lányok,
Azt kacagják, hogy én mindig csak egyedül járok.
Kacagjatok lányok, debreceni lányok,
Meglátnátok a budapesti babám, sírva fakadnátok.

A woman has 9 daughters, she can barely count them,
Every evening she stands in the gate and starts to shout:
Elisabeth, Scarlet, Sarah, Julie, Rose,
Ella, Bella, Judith, Caroline, come for dinner.

I walk on the streets of Debrecen and the girls laugh at me,
They laugh that I'm always walking alone.
Laugh, girls, girls of Debrecen,
If you saw my girlfriend from Budapest, you would burst into tears.

lynching
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch or no lynch.


:!:
Kim
(L-1): Smudger, Witch_Hunter
Witch_Hunter
(L-2): Kim

Not voting
(2): Bluebird,
Kim
, MrCurlyNoodles,
Witch_Hunter


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(expired on 2016-02-11 14:00:00)
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Last edited by Plotinus on Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:27 am

Post by Kim »

In post 424, Smudger wrote:Kim. Because you are the last scum.

Therefore your aim is to stay alive

To do that you have to claim then convince everyone you are not scum

The claim has to be believable

Thus it would be suicidal for the last scum. One who has a case against him which makes sense. To claim anything other that VT. Especially in an open game.

Thus you make a statement such as you did, which is in fact another attempt to look town by stating "I will neither confirm or deny". I read between the lines, you were lining up a VT claim. So don't try to say you were not, you were, because you did.

In other words, you said that I claimed because you think I'm scum. (That's your first step in your reasoning.) I asked you if that's why you were saying so in . You could have saved me a lot of time if you had just said so back then.
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:36 am

Post by Bluebird »

In post 390, Witch_Hunter wrote:
@ Bluebird:
On topic: What do you think about what's going on today?


I think there's a good case on Kim, and a good case on Witch Hunter. Altogether, a lot of WIFOM has been going on. I think Smudger's largely cleared, I don't have enough on Curly, so nulltown, and Witch Hunter or Kim could either flip scum. I just skimmed the thread, so I'm going to go back, read the stuff from my last post, and give a few cases.

My play sucks? Thanks. :/ I'm trying to fix it. Next week is going to be better to me. -.-
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:41 pm

Post by Witch_Hunter »

@ Bluebird:
I wouldn't say your play sucks, but it does often feel like you're not very involved in the game. Participation isn't necessarily time demanding - sometimes, just giving your take on the latest events or asking a few questions can help. You... haven't done much of that. Even hiplop, who died in N1, has 24 posts to your 16, for instance.

That said - I believe you can see for yourself my play's been consistently pro-town and engaged in the thick of things. I believe you can see for yourself Kim's play is much more cautious and risk-adverse up to the moment his wagon got going today. I also believe Smudger's case on Kim is good, and Kim's case on me is a last attempt to save himself that hangs on forced interpretations.
If that's not the way you see things, feel free to ask questions. Otherwise, I've pretty much stated my view.

@ MrCurlyNoodles:
As far as I'm concerned, it's now up to you whether and when you want to hammer or wait for Bluebird's further thoughts. Everyone's had a say, and we don't need a consensus, but if you're willing to wait and see, then fine.
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:36 am

Post by Smudger »

I will re read again I have been very busy and on my phone posting these last few days so I'm not getting things straight in my head For now

UNVOTE:
"There is nothing more ironic or contradictory than life itself"... R.D.


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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:36 am

Post by Smudger »

Give me 24hrs
"There is nothing more ironic or contradictory than life itself"... R.D.


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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:41 am

Post by MrCurlyNoodles »

Sorry I've been MIA lately guys I got real busy around halfway through the day yesterday until right about now. I'm going to hold off on voting still, waiting on bluebird's "few cases" and Smudger's 24 hours.

In post 420, Kim wrote:
In post 413, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:So is this when I hammer? Or should I wait for Bluebird's opinion etc.?

Others have said to wait for Bluebird. However, I'd add that since the game will be over if I turn up scum, you don't need to worry about what your actions will be in case I do flip scum. (Protip: I won't.) Therefore, I don't think it would hurt to take the time to think about what a townflip for me would mean to you and your opinion of the others.


I think we should talk about this in the meantime: if if IF Kim is town, who's the scummiest right now? He makes a compelling case against Witch. But Smudger has also been key to both the town lynches thus far. And bluebirds been mostly MIA/lurking pretty much all game. So I...really have no clue :P anyone have anything to say about this?
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:33 am

Post by Kim »

In post 408, Kim wrote:I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:

1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

This is why I shouldn't post at 4:30 in the morning. If Bel and WH are scum, there's no risk of having awkward, possibly telling reactions from MCN and Blue because they're town by default. :facepalm: So that's not why WH did it. (It might have not been the best move for town if WH is town, but it didn't have scum motivation.)

However: Let's look at the timeline of the posts at the end of Day 2, 2016-01-25. (That was a Monday, as you might remember if you're better about days of the week than I am.) All times UTC-6 (North American Central).

03:21: post , Smudger votes for Bel
06:57: post , WH questions Smudger about Smudger's vote
07:06: post , Smudger replies "I think we should go with it"
11:58: post , I vote for Bel
12:14: post , WH intends to hammer
14:31: post , Bel claims VT
14:48: post , WH hammers

WH said in that Smudger's 353 was what convinced him to vote for Bel. WH also says that he reread AS and the latest posts. I guess it's possible that WH had other things to do that, along with the rereading, kept him from voting before he did, but WH posted something in this thread between 07:06 and 11:58 nine out of the 13 prior weekdays, including on both Mondays.

My hypothesis is that he was waiting to vote until Bel was put at L-1. In 389, WH said he wanted to vote as fast as possible. That was 17 minutes after Bel's claim, which is reasonable for ASAP -- it seems like the thread subscription emails get bogged down during North American work hours and unless you're using IMAP, you're not checking your mail all the time. However, it took him 16 minutes to intend to hammer after I voted.

If he was waiting, why would he do that? I don't see a town reason for doing so, but a scum reason could be that he and Bel thought AS might have had an investigative result on Bel. They decided to wait until Bel got to L-1 for WH to vote for him. As I knew before and am currently experiencing, voting for scum isn't enough to avoid scum suspicion. However, WH's intent to hammer prevented MCN and Blue from quickhammering if they figured out what was up. (Well, MCN and Blue theoretically could have hammered anyway, but that seems like a breach of etiquette to me.) This gave Bel and WH time to plot, discuss best strategies, say their final goodbyes, administer last rites, etc.

I wouldn't stake my life or any amount of money that could buy me a meal on it, but WH is still my best guess for the final scum. MCN and Blue still merit closer looks than I've given them, though (I did a dual ISO with Bel and each of them during N2, but that's all). A complete reread of the whole thread wouldn't hurt, either. (Can I get permission to skim SRMP's posts, though?)
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:06 pm

Post by Witch_Hunter »

@ MrCurlyNoodles:
Nobody's at L-1 since Smudger unvoted (post 429), so there's no reason not to vote if your mind's made up.

What I said to Bluebird goes to you too: I don't see a compelling case against me, but if you do, engage with me. Ask about whatever you think doesn't match.

Answering your question:
If Kim's town, I'd vote on Bluebird, basically for the reasons you mentioned. And also because, frankly, I hate the idea of losing to scum-Bluebird, with all the lurking she's done.
If both were dead and flipped town, it'd have to be one of my townreads. I'd vote you before voting Smudger, mostly because he's been way more active than you.

Smudger's town, by the way - he put a lot of pressure on SRMP, something scum'd probably avoid precisely because it drew much attention to him on Day 2.
As to the second lynch, scum-Smudger could have just stayed quiet. Probably someone else would have seen what was going on, but who else had enough towncred to gather the remaining votes to lynch Belisarius, no explanations given?
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:14 pm

Post by Witch_Hunter »

In post 432, Kim wrote:
In post 408, Kim wrote:I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:

1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

This is why I shouldn't post at 4:30 in the morning. If Bel and WH are scum, there's no risk of having awkward, possibly telling reactions from MCN and Blue because they're town by default. :facepalm: So that's not why WH did it. (It might have not been the best move for town if WH is town, but it didn't have scum motivation.)

However: Let's look at the timeline of the posts at the end of Day 2, 2016-01-25. (That was a Monday, as you might remember if you're better about days of the week than I am.) All times UTC-6 (North American Central).

03:21: post , Smudger votes for Bel
06:57: post , WH questions Smudger about Smudger's vote
07:06: post , Smudger replies "I think we should go with it"
11:58: post , I vote for Bel
12:14: post , WH intends to hammer
14:31: post , Bel claims VT
14:48: post , WH hammers

WH said in that Smudger's 353 was what convinced him to vote for Bel. WH also says that he reread AS and the latest posts. I guess it's possible that WH had other things to do that, along with the rereading, kept him from voting before he did, but WH posted something in this thread between 07:06 and 11:58 nine out of the 13 prior weekdays, including on both Mondays.

My hypothesis is that he was waiting to vote until Bel was put at L-1. In 389, WH said he wanted to vote as fast as possible. That was 17 minutes after Bel's claim, which is reasonable for ASAP -- it seems like the thread subscription emails get bogged down during North American work hours and unless you're using IMAP, you're not checking your mail all the time. However, it took him 16 minutes to intend to hammer after I voted.

If he was waiting, why would he do that? I don't see a town reason for doing so, but a scum reason could be that he and Bel thought AS might have had an investigative result on Bel. They decided to wait until Bel got to L-1 for WH to vote for him. As I knew before and am currently experiencing, voting for scum isn't enough to avoid scum suspicion. However, WH's intent to hammer prevented MCN and Blue from quickhammering if they figured out what was up. (Well, MCN and Blue theoretically could have hammered anyway, but that seems like a breach of etiquette to me.) This gave Bel and WH time to plot, discuss best strategies, say their final goodbyes, administer last rites, etc.

I wouldn't stake my life or any amount of money that could buy me a meal on it, but WH is still my best guess for the final scum. MCN and Blue still merit closer looks than I've given them, though (I did a dual ISO with Bel and each of them during N2, but that's all). A complete reread of the whole thread wouldn't hurt, either. (Can I get permission to skim SRMP's posts, though?)


Ok, Kim, you've done it. I'm actually starting to believe you're town who sincerely scumread me, instead of scum trying to set up a crazy counterwagon to save himself. That, or you took my comments about your passivity very seriously. Oh, you're still likely to be scum, but I'm not certain enough anymore.

UNVOTE:

I'm wondering this mostly because your nonsensical fixation with Belisarius' hammer confuses me, and I suppose scum-you could have come up with something better. After all, apparently I'm scum because I should have hammered later and given MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird time to give their opinions, and I'm also scum because I should have hammered earlier instead of letting Belisarius claim at all.

So, please walk me through this: what scum motivation would I have to hammer Belisarius? Consider the events of the previous day:

Day 1, SRMP's lynch. Sequence of relevant events:

Post 204, hiplop states intent to hammer. From my TZ, that happened on: 14 Jan 2016, 23:09
Post 217, SRMP claims "villy". 15 Jan 2016, 20:28
Post 224, AzoriusSenate hammers. 15 Jan 2016, 21:22

So, there was a precedent we were willing to wait
almost a full day
for a claim before hammering. If Belisarius needed time to discuss strategy with his scumbuddy, he could have taken plenty of time and then claimed when he was done.
No need to coordinate a hammer for whatever reason.


There was also a precedent for a relatively quickly hammer after the claim. MrCurlyNoodles asked Azorius about it later, Azorius answered (post 251), that was it. I didn't say anything about it, nor did you, nor most other players (Smudger did, because he didn't associate villy=VT and thought SRMP hadn't claimed). No big deal. Why is this any different?

Satisfied?
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:34 pm

Post by Witch_Hunter »

Missed one other point:

In post 418, Kim wrote:
2) Or, he was playing it safe by buddying up to two active players who didn't suspect him. Which proved to be a smart thing to do, since he was only lynched when one of these players, Smudger, figured things out.

He was lynched because AS tracked him. If someone else had realized AS was softclaiming, Bel would have been just as dead.


Likely, but Smudger had towncred which made the lynch easier, as I said earlier:

Witch_Hunter wrote:

As to the second lynch, scum-Smudger could have just stayed quiet. Probably someone else would have seen what was going on, but who else had enough towncred to gather the remaining votes to lynch Belisarius, no explanations given?


Speaking for myself only, had anyone else suddenly voted for Belisarius, after completely dismissing the "case" against him, and then refused to explain why, I'd probably not join the wagon. Or rather, probably would think it was a reaction test instead of taking it seriously.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:42 pm

Post by Witch_Hunter »

In post 431, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:Sorry I've been MIA lately guys I got real busy around halfway through the day yesterday until right about now. I'm going to hold off on voting still, waiting on bluebird's "few cases" and Smudger's 24 hours.

In post 420, Kim wrote:
In post 413, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:So is this when I hammer? Or should I wait for Bluebird's opinion etc.?

Others have said to wait for Bluebird. However, I'd add that since the game will be over if I turn up scum, you don't need to worry about what your actions will be in case I do flip scum. (Protip: I won't.) Therefore, I don't think it would hurt to take the time to think about what a townflip for me would mean to you and your opinion of the others.


I think we should talk about this in the meantime: if if IF Kim is town, who's the scummiest right now? He makes a compelling case against Witch. But Smudger has also been key to both the town lynches thus far. And bluebirds been mostly MIA/lurking pretty much all game. So I...really have no clue :P anyone have anything to say about this?


It's only now I noticed you're not offering much here. Everyone's scummy but yourself. Alright, but surely you think some are more scummy than others? If it were entirely up to you, what's your lynching order?
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:29 pm

Post by Witch_Hunter »

In post 408, Kim wrote:The rest of my readlist, with rough scum probabilities:

MrCurlyNoodles, 22.5% -- also played well, but his response to AS's claim could be scum defending scum; a similar reaction is what broke open the Open game Smudger and I subbed out of (counterpoint: I said the same thing, and I'm town)

Bluebird, 7.5% -- really still null, but some other people look bad

Smudger, 2.5% -- maybe MCN's comment above is right, but I doubt it


Are you really saying MrCurlyNoodles is 3x more likely to be scum than Bluebird? How come?
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:55 pm

Post by Kim »

In post 434, Witch_Hunter wrote:Ok, Kim, you've done it. I'm actually starting to believe you're town who sincerely scumread me, instead of scum trying to set up a crazy counterwagon to save himself.

You were my prime suspect after my N2 reread. That's what I was referring to in my initial D3 post () when I needed to figure out how to act -- I was worried about being scumread for having a case on you based on, frankly, not a whole lot.

I'm wondering this mostly because your nonsensical fixation with Belisarius' hammer confuses me, and I suppose scum-you could have come up with something better. After all, apparently I'm scum because I should have hammered later and given MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird time to give their opinions

I'll admit more explicitly that that was faulty reasoning on my part. That's not scummy in this particular case where there aren't any more scum.

and I'm also scum because I should have hammered earlier instead of letting Belisarius claim at all.

To me, that seems more consistent with the Quicklynch Wiki article you posted, but I think that article is describing larger games where a confirmed cop (or similar) who can avoid retribution can say at Daybreak "I investigated Bel. He's scum. *votes*" Everyone (well, int(N/2) of them) would then also vote for him without discussion and end the Day ASAP.

So, please walk me through this: what scum motivation would I have to hammer Belisarius?

1) To get towncred by busing him. Smudger used this against me in his case: "His argument may well be that he hammered Bel, so? thats called a bus and he did it to attempt to ensure his survival today."

2) Like I said earlier, stating intent to hammer could also buy time for last-minute strategy by dissuading MCN and Blue from quickhammering to end the day. That was the only reason I could think of for you to wait for Bel to reach L-1 before stating intent to hammer; so, why did you wait?

Satisfied?

I'll get back to that.

In post 435, Witch_Hunter wrote:Speaking for myself only, had anyone else [besides Smudger] suddenly voted for Belisarius, after completely dismissing the "case" against him, and then refused to explain why, I'd probably not join the wagon. Or rather, probably would think it was a reaction test instead of taking it seriously.

Smudger wasn't completely townread -- Blue had him as scum, while MCN and I were null on him. Naturally, who you listen to depends on what you think of the player.

In post 437, Witch_Hunter wrote:
In post 408, Kim wrote:The rest of my readlist, with rough scum probabilities:

MrCurlyNoodles, 22.5% -- also played well, but his response to AS's claim could be scum defending scum; a similar reaction is what broke open the Open game Smudger and I subbed out of (counterpoint: I said the same thing, and I'm town)

Bluebird, 7.5% -- really still null, but some other people look bad

Smudger, 2.5% -- maybe MCN's comment above is right, but I doubt it


Are you really saying MrCurlyNoodles is 3x more likely to be scum than Bluebird? How come?

I was. I was probably overly influenced by the appeal of having each person 3x more likely to be scum than the next, along with the fact that the percentages didn't look too off to me.

Aside from that, I'm probably being affected by the small sample sizes of my experience. (I see now that I said "claim" where I should have said "case/vote" in MCN's explanation; I hope that didn't confuse anyone.)

In the Open game I mentioned above, the unclaimed cop said at the start of D3 that she had reread the thread, determined KlingonCelt was guilty, and voted for him. (In actuality, she had gotten a guilty result from him.) mykonian declared that to be a "shit post" and capped off a rant in his next post with a vote for her. KlingonCelt got lynched and flipped scum; mykonian got investigated the next night and,
quelle surprise
, was also scum. (Smudger and I had subbed out by then.)

At the time (which, I remind you again, was 4:30 in the morning on a workday), I didn't like his post where he wasn't convinced I was town but was willing to lynch me because you and Smudger said it. On reread, the post isn't that bad -- he was probably more like 95% sure I was scum instead of the 50% or so I was thinking at the time.

Re: Bluebird: In my first Newbie game, the lurker was town. In my second, one was town and one was scum. In retrospect, I should have kept her at the default 25% scum probability, but it felt high to me at the time for gut reasons.

In conclusion to this part of the post: If Bluebird's 25% likely to be scum and MCN is more likely to be scum than she is, nobody else can be >50% likely to be scum. That's my threshold for voting for someone this early in the Day, so:

UNVOTE: Witch_Hunter

Adjusted scumprobs (based on the first numbers I can think of that don't feel wrong to me): WH 42%, MCN 32%, Blue 25%, Smudger 1%
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:24 pm

Post by MrCurlyNoodles »

Well now we're back to zero :S Which is fairly unhelpful. This is a post on my thoughts right now to maybe get us away from zero.

In post 436, Witch_Hunter wrote:It's only now I noticed you're not offering much here. Everyone's scummy but yourself. Alright, but surely you think some are more scummy than others? If it were entirely up to you, what's your lynching order?

Sorry for not offering much :P I absolutely agree and though that post was mostly made to get some conversation going I should've added more of my thoughts. In terms of what my lynching order was at the time: Kim, WH, Smudger, Bluebird for the reasons stated in the post you're referencing.

In post 438, Kim wrote:At the time (which, I remind you again, was 4:30 in the morning on a workday), I didn't like his post where he wasn't convinced I was town but was willing to lynch me because you and Smudger said it. On reread, the post isn't that bad -- he was probably more like 95% sure I was scum instead of the 50% or so I was thinking at the time.

In terms of this, this is pretty much 100% correct. I was 95% sure you were scum, mostly because I didn't see anyone else being scum at the time, and since I trusted Smudger and WH that extra 5% of uncertainty mattered less. That being said my trust has changed slightly and my views have changed slightly since then.

In post 433, Witch_Hunter wrote:@ MrCurlyNoodles: Nobody's at L-1 since Smudger unvoted (post 429), so there's no reason not to vote if your mind's made up.

I noticed this and the reason I haven't voted yet is because, as I said above, the reason I ignored the 5% uncertainty is because I trusted you and Smudger's judgement. Now Smudger is rereading and possibly changing said judgement and you seem to have followed suit while my trust of you has gone down, partially because of Kim's case, partially because of your actions since then. My certainty that Kim is scum is not high enough for me to want to put them back at L1.

In post 434, Witch_Hunter wrote:Ok, Kim, you've done it. I'm actually starting to believe you're town who sincerely scumread me, instead of scum trying to set up a crazy counterwagon to save himself. That, or you took my comments about your passivity very seriously. Oh, you're still likely to be scum, but I'm not certain enough anymore.

UNVOTE:

Speaking of scummy seeming actions since then: case in point: this feels wrong. This post isn't how you've felt to me at all this game: most of the time you stayed behind your argument until a much better one came up or they had a pretty solid defence and, as you said above, if he's the scummiest person to you why not keep your vote on him? He's not at L1. Your sudden revelation at Kim's possible townness after this:
In post 404, Witch_Hunter wrote:Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.

and this:
In post 428, Witch_Hunter wrote:That said - I believe you can see for yourself my play's been consistently pro-town and engaged in the thick of things. I believe you can see for yourself Kim's play is much more cautious and risk-adverse up to the moment his wagon got going today. I also believe Smudger's case on Kim is good, and Kim's case on me is a last attempt to save himself that hangs on forced interpretations.
If that's not the way you see things, feel free to ask questions. Otherwise, I've pretty much stated my view.

Also doesn't feel right. I'm not entirely sure he added anything more to his argument then bit of clarification and acceptance at some of his own flawed arguments. The sudden switch to him being "town that sincerely scumread you" feels like backing down and attempting to buddy after a possibly legitimate argument was put against you.

There was a very similar post from the other side however, though it didn't feel quite as scummy:
In post 438, Kim wrote:UNVOTE: Witch_Hunter


Taking all of this into account I trust WH less than i did before. If you want questions I don't really know if I have any, just these observations to how you've acted recently. That being said Kim is still the top of my scum list because ultimately I don't believe that his argument is correct. I think Witch's hammer was fine and logical and that's really the whole crux of the argument. WH's post above about how towny he's been all game, especially as opposed to Kim is correct in my opinion. His actions since then have seemed scummy to me, but in contrast Witch and Smudger's arguments agains't Kim still hold true. I'm now more like 70% sure Kim is scum and 28% sure Witch is scum. I leave the 2% for Smudger and Bluebird, Smudger because I still trust what they've done and Bluebird because it would be laaaaaaaame for the last scum to have just been afk pretty much all game. In response to my earlier question about who to vote if Kim is town, it's WH, and if both are killed and town probably Bluebird. Though I'd be uncomfortable with that lynch in general.

All of this being said, I am now going to VOTE: Kim. Not because I think they should be lynched (yet), but because I think we need to get the ball rolling again towards lynching someone. There's one mafia left fellow townsfolk. Let's kill them.
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:52 pm

Post by Bluebird »

Quick note: My lurking recently is because of things coming up in RL I should have expected but didn't. And procrastination of those things.

Did I ever answer that question about my lynch preferences? I don't think I did. I can't say much, but currently I'd like to see some more from: WH, Kim, Curly, and then Smudger.
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:59 pm

Post by Smudger »

OK now reading through as I want to be sure my case has foundation and as a lot has now appeared in thread I need to address it. As I stated for the last few days I have been phone posting and therefore reading has been a challenge. I also want to apologize for drunk posting. the series of posts where I continually state "Lynch Kim" or words to that effect I was drunk. Its not acceptable to do that in these games and I will not do it again.

anyway moving on:

Spoiler:
In post 401, Kim wrote:MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*


WH is a town read... noted

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Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:Witch_Hunter didn't seem to share your view that Bel's post threw everyone else off of me. His next post had a p-edit directed at Bel asking him to explain his desire to lynch me. Bel's next post had him right back on my wagon:


Yes WH questioned Bel, and Bel made a statement regarding his potential vote on you straight after, as he continually did up until he was lynched. But my statement is that the post by Bel "was designed to throw us off of the weak case he had on you". The way it was perceived by those in the game at the time it was posted is another matter, the fact someone questioned him, well it was going to happen, he then responded as he did. What if he had just changed his POV on being questioned, it would have generated more questions would it not? why would he continually point to you as scum, Ok you maybe town but you could also equally be scum, my case surrounds the premise that the collection of points I highlighted leads me to believe I have scum, you.

You see my case is the general strategy being employed, be it direct or indirect by Bel. In my mind he was attempting to discard you as he did not want too much attention on his buddy, But he also wanted to hide you should he get lynched, which is what happened, that's the point I am trying to make.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:(I moved the answer up here.) As a whole, I obviously can't say why Bel posted what he did. I will say that it doesn't fit the distancing I've seen in my other newbie games.


That post has irked me all game. its the strangest thing I have seen to date in a game of Mafia, and the more I ponder it the more I return to Occam's Razor, remember that Bel himself said as much. The Simplest answer must be the truth, and to me the simplest answer is, because he shared day-talk with you, ergo you are scum.

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Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:You did ask me. I had already answered in post 189, as you quote below. Is there some better way for me to answer if Player X directly asks me if I think Player Y is scum, assuming that I don't think Y is scum?


I think you miss my point here. Your voting history is pretty patchy to say the least, you voted as I have highlighted and yet its more to do with your POV on SRMP. this is where I see an issue. As I stated I feel your motives at the time for that post was to acquire Town-cred based off the back of not voting for a player you knew was town. You may point at the fact that others were not voting for him and that BlueBird had made a similar statement, but it goes back to the collective facts not this fact in isolation.

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Spoiler:
In post 402, Kim wrote:1) I didn't hammer Bel. That was WH.
2) I didn't question you because I was able to figure out that you thought AS had a good reason for voting for Bel. (I didn't think about exactly what your reason was, though. That could have saved me all this typing.)


yes you are right and I retract the comment concerning the hammer, but that does not take away from my thoughts the fact that you did not even question me, you just went ahead and did it. But as a footnote I see your explanation regarding why and I can see some merit in it. however, I have looked at the other games you have been in. In one of them you hammered for the lose. But before you hammered you were making sure that it was the right choice you were asking questions and interacting with the other players, you even asked for time to consider the move. You were town in that game and a lot more involved than you have been here, your questions are more indepth and seem to be well thought out. I don't get the same feel here, it may wel be confirmation bias, but not with everything else I have considered.

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Spoiler:
In post 403, Kim wrote:He might still think I was suspicious for what I did -- he never replied to my second response -- but he did also say I'm behind you and WH in his lynch list in 337.


that wasn't his lynch list, thats was his soft claim, that made me lynch Bel......

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Spoiler:
In post 408, Kim wrote:1) If he were town,
he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed.
That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.


you do realise you are parroting me? I said that

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Spoiler:
In post 408, Kim wrote:He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH


this has merit with regard to WH, and yes I had considered the probability that WH is a very smart player and is pulling the wool over our eyes, if he is he has played extremely well and needs recognition for it. But I don't think so I don't seen anything that rings alarm bells. I see Bel trying to ensure that the two of the strongest town players stay off his scent. You must consider that at the time in the game he did not know which power roles were in town's possession, he just had an idea based on the scum roles he obviously knew. therefore he wanted to keep us sweet, and he did right up to AS starting the wagon on him and AS's claim.

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Spoiler:
In post 421, Kim wrote:How did you interpret the fact that I would neither confirm nor deny VT? Also, I've already said that a fake PR claim by scum toDay would be a guaranteed loss once the real PR counterclaims, regardless of whether the scum guess the role we actually have correctly.


Yes, but it remains extant, you have confirmed you know the best course of action as scum in this type of game is not to CC if caught out but claim VT. I read between the lines, it was clear to me what you were saying in that post.

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Spoiler:
In post 432, Kim wrote:WH said in 389 that Smudger's 353 was what convinced him to vote for Bel. WH also says that he reread AS and the latest posts. I guess it's possible that WH had other things to do that, along with the rereading, kept him from voting before he did, but WH posted something in this thread between 07:06 and 11:58 nine out of the 13 prior weekdays, including on both Mondays.


this is your case on WH, site mechanics?

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and now I have caught up.

I see that Kim has woken up and posted more but I remain unconvinced.


I still believe Kim is the last Scum, he is currently at L2.

I intend to vote for him later today

Fixed quote tags. -m
Last edited by Marquis on Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:32 pm

Post by Smudger »

Plot can you please fix the tags inside those spoilers? I have no Idea what happened ... many thanks
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:56 pm

Post by Smudger »

In post 441, Smudger wrote:Fixed quote tags. -m


Thanks Marquis
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:16 pm

Post by Smudger »

Spoiler:
In post 20, Belisarius wrote:The absence of any Halifax bands on Kim's list offends me.


1. why is Bel so fixated on Kim, even with one of his first posts?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spoiler:
In post 26, Witch_Hunter wrote:
In post 17, Witch_Hunter wrote:
In post 16, Kim wrote:4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.


Isn't that
precisely
what scum would say? "Look, I may look really scummy, but I'm a townie. No, really!"
It could be just your personality, but it sounds suspicious.

In post 20, Belisarius wrote:
5. I'm always scum, even when I'm town. That much hasn't changed


For the same reasons above, I don't like this much either.


2. is this the earliest catch of the game?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spoiler:
In post 61, Kim wrote:Welcome, new people!

While I'm up (most of the time I can sleep through my phone vibrating when it gets this thread's subscription email, but not tonight, apparently)...

UNVOTE: hiplop for the reasons mentioned by Belisarius, Witch_Doctor, and him. Nobody else seems worthy of a vote at this hour.

In post 62, Kim wrote:EBWOP (edit by way of post): "deserves," not "seems worthy of."


why Kim did you think it necessary to change your wording?
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:28 pm

Post by Smudger »

In post 72, hiplop wrote:Sorry for this wall of text I'm sure once I start posting more/get used to this format and how to quote things my posts will either be shorter or snazzier. But those are my thoughts for now.


do you think you achieved this?
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:51 pm

Post by Smudger »

my quoting is going astray, my post above, the quote is of something MCN posted?

PEdit _ ahhh its because I quoted from a quote of Hiplop...

it should be this one

In post 59, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:Sorry for this wall of text I'm sure once I start posting more/get used to this format and how to quote things my posts will either be shorter or snazzier. But those are my thoughts for now.
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:20 pm

Post by Smudger »

I have a question for everyone,

what is your take on MCN?
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:43 pm

Post by MrCurlyNoodles »

In post 446, Smudger wrote:my quoting is going astray, my post above, the quote is of something MCN posted?

PEdit _ ahhh its because I quoted from a quote of Hiplop...

it should be this one

In post 59, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:Sorry for this wall of text I'm sure once I start posting more/get used to this format and how to quote things my posts will either be shorter or snazzier. But those are my thoughts for now.


Ahh sorry I know my latest post was huge :S I do think I was fairly shorter and/or snazzier on D2 and up to the latest post today so I kind of achieved it? I haven't fully figured out the whole spoiler thing so I haven't been using those sorry. If you're talking about me posting more, I only posted like twice on D1 so I feel like I have been more active. If you want me to be even more active I can try, though I'm unsure what else I can add.
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:43 am

Post by Smudger »

In post 441, Smudger wrote:I intend to vote for him later today



retracting this for now...... if you missed it please look at my post 447
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