In post 439, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:Well now we're back to zero :S Which is fairly unhelpful. This is a post on my thoughts right now to maybe get us away from zero.
No, this isn't early Day 2 all over again. We do have a lot of things to work with.
I still think the last scum is either Kim or Bluebird, and thus we should lynch one of them today and, if this fails, lynch the other tomorrow. But getting it right today would be much better.
In post 439, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:
In post 436, Witch_Hunter wrote:It's only now I noticed you're not offering much here. Everyone's scummy but yourself. Alright, but surely you think some are more scummy than others? If it were entirely up to you, what's your lynching order?
Sorry for not offering much
I absolutely agree and though that post was mostly made to get some conversation going I should've added more of my thoughts. In terms of what my lynching order was at the time: Kim, WH, Smudger, Bluebird for the reasons stated in the post you're referencing.
That's something already. Now, why do you scumread Smudger more than Bluebird? Has she done anything pro-town so far? Yet she's the towniest of us all, according to your list?
In post 439, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:
I noticed this and the reason I haven't voted yet is because, as I said above, the reason I ignored the 5% uncertainty is because I trusted you and Smudger's judgement. Now Smudger is rereading and possibly changing said judgement and you seem to have followed suit while my trust of you has gone down, partially because of Kim's case, partially because of your actions since then. My certainty that Kim is scum is not high enough for me to want to put them back at L1.
Fair enough.
/Off topic, theory talk: I don't think you literally meant 95% certainty, but that's about as good as it gets. If you're only willing to act when 100% sure, then you won't be doing much unless you're a cop or tracker.
In post 439, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:
In post 434, Witch_Hunter wrote:Ok, Kim, you've done it. I'm actually starting to believe you're town who sincerely scumread me, instead of scum trying to set up a crazy counterwagon to save himself. That, or you took my comments about your passivity very seriously. Oh, you're still likely to be scum, but I'm not certain enough anymore.
UNVOTE:
Speaking of scummy seeming actions since then: case in point: this feels wrong. This post isn't how you've felt to me at all this game: most of the time you stayed behind your argument until a much better one came up or they had a pretty solid defence and, as you said above, if he's the scummiest person to you why not keep your vote on him? He's not at L1. Your sudden revelation at Kim's possible townness after this:
In post 404, Witch_Hunter wrote:Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
and this:
In post 428, Witch_Hunter wrote:That said - I believe you can see for yourself my play's been consistently pro-town and engaged in the thick of things. I believe you can see for yourself Kim's play is much more cautious and risk-adverse up to the moment his wagon got going today. I also believe Smudger's case on Kim is good, and Kim's case on me is a last attempt to save himself that hangs on forced interpretations.
If that's not the way you see things, feel free to ask questions. Otherwise, I've pretty much stated my view.
Also doesn't feel right. I'm not entirely sure he added anything more to his argument then bit of clarification and acceptance at some of his own flawed arguments. The sudden switch to him being "town that sincerely scumread you" feels like backing down and attempting to buddy after a possibly legitimate argument was put against you.
- He's still my strongest scumread, and I've been pretty direct about it. No buddying.
- The unvote is because I'm
less convinced
of his scumminess than before. Enough to make me doubt whether he should be lynched before Bluebird.
- His case against me is, let me say it again, nonsense. I've pointed that out to him, he openly admits it, yet he doubled down on it. I'm not quite certain whether that's scum grasping at straws or town tunneling. To repeat: probably the former, but maybe maybe the latter.
In post 439, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:
Taking all of this into account I trust WH less than i did before. If you want questions I don't really know if I have any, just these observations to how you've acted recently. That being said Kim is still the top of my scum list because ultimately I don't believe that his argument is correct. I think Witch's hammer was fine and logical and that's really the whole crux of the argument. WH's post above about how towny he's been all game, especially as opposed to Kim is correct in my opinion. His actions since then have seemed scummy to me, but in contrast Witch and Smudger's arguments agains't Kim still hold true. I'm now more like 70% sure Kim is scum and 28% sure Witch is scum. I leave the 2% for Smudger and Bluebird, Smudger because I still trust what they've done and Bluebird because it would be laaaaaaaame for the last scum to have just been afk pretty much all game. In response to my earlier question about who to vote if Kim is town, it's WH, and if both are killed and town probably Bluebird. Though I'd be uncomfortable with that lynch in general.
You acknowledge his case on me is crap, yet I'm your second option for a lynch? Damn you, Overton Window!
Ok, a slightly different order here, which makes a bit more sense. But my question of "what's so towny about Bluebird?" still stands.