Rob13's early Day 1 play isn't bad at all. In his first post
47 and others like
73 show he is already seemingly trying to sort out people. Not pilling onto the Dwlee wagon early on isn't too bad (yeah, I know its a weak as hell tell but I'm dumping all my thoughts into this post) and his later post
231 is okay. His slight push on Suzune and suspicion of Grapes seem genuine and aren't faulty either. I quite like posts
243 and
316 in fact; it reminds me a lot of some other players as town. He actually actively pushes the Dwlee wagon which I'd expect more from town than scum, as they know it's going to end up being a mislynch so driving it too hard would only draw attention which they in turn avoid like the plague. His scum reads early Day 1 aren't faked and his town reads in post
289 aligned with mine largely at the time, and people who draw similar conclusions I like to attribute as town. All in all his play start Day 1 is leaning town. He at least seems to be trying to sort players and I cannot find faults in what content he gives. My only question here is what changed grapes from scum to town in post
292?
Him already thinking ahead of who we should lynch
once
Dwlee has flipped scum (although he didn't) in posts like
297 is actually something I think is town from Rob. It shows he is convinced that his push is going to hit what he wants and he's already trying to figure out the implications of that. I find myself doing this a lot as associative tells is something I (ab)use a lot so yeah. The fact he calls me out on doing just this in
356 strengthens the feel that is seems like he is trying to sort out the game. His push on Dwlee reads as natural and not forced.
Then we have him pushing Beeboy starting with his post
777. It doesn't look good. He suddenly starts saying that Dwlee could be town because of Beeboy (which is some horrible preflip associative) and yells some stuff about multiball. Why is this bad? Well in post
798 he snaps at Dwlee for speculation with multiball so we have some hypocrisy there and the push could be seen as an attempt to grab some town-credit. The reasons for pushing Beeboy himself aren't that bad. The whole "Push Beeboy by saying there's no way Dwlee can be town while at the same time saying Dwlee may be town because Beeboy is failing to explain rationally why he thinks Dwlee is town" however is. Yeah it's a bit confusing. Feels odd and I don't know what to make of it honestly. I could see him pushing Beeboy as town, the manner in which he goes about it is a little weird though. Wanting to randomly flash-wagon Varsoon in post
896 doesn't really help either. Nor does him dropping the Beeboy scum read so easily in
1169. Nor does him suddenly changing back again for mostly the same reasons in
1563.
Him not wanting the day to end before Starbucks replacement seems kind of townish.
Now for his claim on mimi. If I'm honest my sceptical side wants him to explain more however is that's going to prove harmful to the town I don't recommend that. I believe he's got something but Mimi's play seems pretty town and I harbour the doubt Rob is making a mistake somewhere. Vigging Mimi is the best way to go though, if she flips scum win-win and if she flips town we need to have Rob claim tomorrow.
Tl;dr
Rob seems town but he has some things I can't quite figure out and/or understand. I'm leaning town on him for now anyway. I believe he is an investigative role of sorts and agree to Vigging Mimi.
Nicole Mimi Tithel - Town but we need her dead (Sorry)
Now this
is
an odd one. Her claim seems legitimate as it is so absurd nobody would ever think of fake-claiming it. There is however the issue of Rob's claimed result of ???? on her that apparently makes her guilty in his eyes. This should be tested, and obviously not by killing the claimed informative role. We should vig mimi.
What irks me though is how town she seems. The whole "Lynch my scum reads when I'm dead (notice: not if I'm dead) and stop when town flip first, I could bet cash I did well" thing screams town to me. She doesn't at all seem bothered with the fact she is about to die (she seems to embrace it even) and all she is doing seems to be trying to leave the town in the best position possible after her death.
Her reads aren't faulty, they aren't forced and they are reasonably backed up. If rob hadn't claimed anything I would have her as hard town right now to be quite honest.
Beeboy - Pretty much Scum
Early Day 1 Beeboy is just urrrg to me. People that seem too happy and jolly at the start of games always look fake to me even though it is often just play style. Stuff like
52 just read to me as off. Anyway the first real post that I'll assign actual worth to is
132; here he just jumps onto the Dwlee wagon for absolutely no reason what so ever and it could be viewed as opportunism. Everything surrounding this post just pings me as off due the fluffiness and general uselessness of them all. Him just leaving the wagon and suddenly deciding he's the towniest thing in the history of Mafia is also ack. Why the heck did she just jump onto that wagon and stay in it when there was genuine threat of him getting lynched only to leave in post
661? I DONT UNDERSTAND
It could be white knighting or it could just be weird as fudge erratic town.
His reasons for ever having a vote on him in post
679 is crumpets as you don't just let someone hover around L-1 if you town read them because you know "nobody will hammer". Why is he on the wagon in the first place then?
Sometimes scum hard town read people more than others because they know they are town so they subconsciously act on that. Beeboy explaining Dwlee's actions for him is a little odd and may possibly indicate this. This over the top level of confidence of Dwlee being town is unnatural. If he thinks the vig stuff isn't alignment indicative there still isn't enough content from Dwlee to let there be such a strong town read on him. At best Beeboy should be pushing that people scum reading Dwlee for the vig thing should see it as null. Where does the town part come from?
The complete and utter 180° to scum reading him again is also awful. He seems to have just dropped the town read push thing because it was drawing unwanted attention. There is no natural transition or development there, just BAM scum read from the person she had as hard town. The push on TSO is faulty as well. Him dropping it so randomly again once again is weird as fudge.
Today he hasn't really done much either besides some weird sideline cheering on of the Mimi wagon.
Tl;dr:
Beeboys reads seem forced and unnatural, especially if you pay attention to how the reads develop they just seem to come and go way too quickly. You don't just flip around on reads like that as town.
At the start of Day 1 YT is a bit odd in the way he fence sits regarding Dwlee. Post
286 being the main concern. I also didn't the like the way he blamed his bad play on lack of effort in posts like
546. It all looks a bit like scum trying to set themselves up to go with the flow while not actually having to do much as you just blame any accusations on "meh I'm not putting in any effort right now". The way he also suddenly jumped to Dwlee being scum after he thought he had been hammered in post
569 is also rather strange. Can't find a scum explanation for doing this though.
Post
646 seems like he's forming reads, though I still dislike how he's suddenly started criticising Dwlee after he was pressured for not doing so. Feels a little opportunistic. Him going after Cake later in
941 also strikes me as odd. He hadn't really expressed any read or suspicions on this slot though he had mentioned pop for instance. Why he didn't vote for pop and why he decided to leave the Dwlee wagon is beyond me. I can some fitting explanations to explain this as gown and scum but neither is obviously more likely than the other. His next wall
1156 adds some more strangeness to the fray. Once again it gives the impression he is trying to form reads. However some things don't seem to add up. For instance the reason why he is avoiding his second highest scum reads wagon and why he decided to quit said wagon in exchange for someone he has roughly in the middle of his reads list. What the heck is BRantz doing so high up as well?
He is just kind of hopping around voting people for little things, nabbing at Dwlee every now and then but avoiding voting him at all costs. It's really strange. Could be his playstyle but eh?
He is also completely obsessed with the idea of third-parties.
Posts
1466 and
1474 regarding rob are kind of strange as well.
Why he didn't want a quick day and avoided the Dwlee wagon all day only to hammer him anyway is beyond me honestly.
I'll admit it does unnerve me a little that someone playing weirdly like this is going for the same players I am but hey. Pisskop is so crumpets scum that I'll change my avatar to one of choice if he flips town.
