Mini 1755: Game Over


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Post Post #2225 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:12 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 2218, massive wrote:There was never any danger of me hammering Axle, so I can't imagine why Ircher even brought it up.

As noted, leaving this here.

VOTE: Ircher

Will check back in the morning on my way out.

You know what, that is a horrible vote.

@PK, @Heat --> Massive's the last scum, Axle is just over analyzing stuff.

Why SHOULDN'T I consider the possibility that you COULD hammer. You guys do idiotic stuff if I don't spell some stuff like this out to you, so I don't get why that's a scumread.
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Post Post #2226 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:26 am

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Id be happy to lynch massive.

Already said so.
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Post Post #2227 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:29 am

Post by Ircher »

Whoops, forgot my vote
VOTE: Massive
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Post Post #2228 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:30 am

Post by Ircher »

We have to convince Heat though, as Massive/Axle are content on an Ircher lynch. Aka, Heat has the deciding vote.
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Post Post #2229 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:31 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

I think that is the end of the LWT. Ive had the time i asked for in

Earlier heat asked Pk this
In post 2172, Heat wrote:Pisskop. Ircher is too scummy to be scum. what are your thoughts on that concept.

apparently he wont be answering.
Spoiler: earlier post of mine
In post 2216, AxleGreaser wrote:
In post 2212, Ircher wrote:
Axle wrote:
and I note you have stated intent before getting a vote or commitment from Massive, which is incompatible with this intent
In post 1962, Ircher wrote:Let's make this clear:
WE ARE USING ALL OUR TIME TODAY

which was something you seemed fairly adamant about earlier.

DISCLAIMER: Means up to 36 hrs before deadline.


Yep so if the game was about following recipes (playing scum would be easy) that would make sense you have not done anything quite outside that simplistic rule.

However as pointed out above although you fall within the literal meaning of your clarified 36 HR rule.

It is seemingly incompatible with its town aligned intent. As was explained here.
In post 2212, Ircher wrote:
and I note you have stated intent before getting a vote or commitment from Massive, which is incompatible with this intent


As town curious about both my and Massives alignment you would/should have wanted to waited for his input.

You have not addressed or explained why you were not interested in waiting for Massives input at all.
Please do so?

Neither will Ircher.

Earlier I made this post, seeking more information there was reason.
In post 2174, AxleGreaser wrote:@Thread
yeah... if you want to talk to me about these and related statements by Ircher... then after i have talked to him... k
Lets just say my wife looked very pretty covered in wheaties.

In post 2134, Ircher wrote:Whic, nking any of the rest of us 4 not only gives town info, but scum really wouldn't want to nk anyone EXCEPT Axle right now assuming Axle town.


I am intrigued by your thought process. (I have some other feelings but they don't seem very relevant)
I know you have moved on to suggesting no lynch and then your even more recent posts.
But I want to know what you were thinking when you wrote this post.

Questions.

Why do you think this. "scum really wouldn't want to nk anyone EXCEPT Axle right now assuming Axle town."

What info will the other nk you would, according to your post above, force scum to make give.


I know that as heat points out Irchers posts are scummy, and could be described as too scummy to be scum.

Spoiler: math
Monty hall is a well known problem that gives many people trouble with probabilities.

To scummy to be scum can also be due to misunderstanding of probabilities.
(this story i set on disc world, int he book small gods by terry Pratchet. It has no relation to any gods real or imaginary in other plane of existence.)
3 Atheist meteorologists are on tour of the disc world. The are walking across a field on clear sunny day, all have high degree of confidence god does not exist.
One stubs his toe and says "Goddam it". A bolt of lighting from the sky reduces him to dust.
Another says "Holy crap that was a really unlucky thing to happen". Another bolt of lighting from the sky reduces him to dust.
The last one suddenly becomes a believer.

While it was true he believed it very unlikely he lived in world where god struck people with bolts of lighting.
he also believed it was highly unlikely that two people in row get struck like that on clear sunny day.
he was no longer evaluating the probability that God did or did not exist, he was evaluating the conditional probability that having just seen two people struck by lighting what was the probability of god existing, and being a bit touchy about blasphemers.


It is indeed unlikely that scum would make posts such as Ircher has made, it is also unlikely town would.
We are trying to evaluate the conditional probability that scum or town made those posts.
I have never ever seen anyone anywhere propose lynching a towny because you think scum will kill them. My brain freezes (locks up) when i try understand it.
So in assessing the relative observed probabilities of them i get a division by zero error.

It is two player(team) zero sum game ... and you wat? Want make move lynch some guy, because having that guy dead is what the other team wants too?


HOWEVER

My problem is kinda unrelated to that.
My problem is with the mindset, and what i can infer Ircher has been thinking about lately.

Ircher has high degree of confidence who scum will want to kill.
has low degree of confidence in who he thinks is scum.

It is possible to get there by analysing the problem and working out that every possible scum player would want X dead.
I didn't see evidence of that happening when i asked.
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Post Post #2230 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:32 am

Post by Ircher »

@Heat - Explaining the latter portion of today
This is not scum who are sitting on the fence waiting for the opportunistic vote. This is town who isn't very confident in his reads anymore
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Post Post #2231 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:40 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2226, pisskop wrote:Id be happy to lynch massive.

Already said so.


Don't remember you explaining why and refuting what I said about the poor excuse for reasoning that you did provide. for instance
and only said stuff like devoid of actual reasons.

It is wayyyyyy past time for faux pushes. What you have done, and especially what you have not done, is scummy as fuck. Pushing for lynches, with cult of personality, while trying to keep your own hands clean.



In post 2228, Ircher wrote:We have to convince Heat though, as Massive/Axle are content on an Ircher lynch. Aka, Heat has the deciding vote.


You could always you try and explain why you think one particular lynch is best and most likely to flip scum
that would be good way to
In post 1962, Ircher wrote:Let's make this clear: WE ARE USING ALL OUR TIME TODAY

use all of today.
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Post Post #2232 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:42 am

Post by pisskop »

Then lynh me.
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Post Post #2233 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:42 am

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Oh. you dont have the powah to.
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Post Post #2234 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:43 am

Post by pisskop »

So, you can either let people who
do
have the power to make the choice, or you can help us.
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Post Post #2235 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:44 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2230, Ircher wrote:@Heat - Explaining the latter portion of today
This is not scum who are sitting on the fence waiting for the opportunistic vote. This is town who isn't very confident in his reads anymore


but is certain who would get killed tonight

In post 2179, AxleGreaser wrote:EBWOP
Additional clarity

In post 2174, AxleGreaser wrote:
Spoiler: @Thread
yeah... if you want to talk to me about these and related statements by Ircher... then after i have talked to him... k
Lets just say my wife looked very pretty covered in wheaties.
<I thought that was a trope. The image i meant to conjure was me {
eating breakfast, reading something, and involuntarily spraying my mouthful of wheaties across the table
}.>

@Ircher

In post 2134, Ircher wrote:Whic, nking any of the rest of us 4 not only gives town info, but scum really wouldn't want to nk anyone EXCEPT Axle right now assuming Axle town.


I am intrigued by your thought process. (I have some other feelings but they don't seem very relevant)
I know you have moved on to suggesting no lynch and then your even more recent posts.
But I want to know what you were thinking when you wrote this post.

Questions.


Why do you think this? "scum really wouldn't want to nk anyone EXCEPT Axle right now assuming Axle town."

What info will the other nk (according to your post above,) you would force scum to make,
give.

In post 2193, Ircher wrote:Well, my gist as far as the Axle nk is that Axle is prob. the best player still alive right now. While he isn't always right, he does good job of looking town and always makes supported reads. In other words, it would be very difficult, though not impossible, for scum to frame and have Axle lynched in LyLo.
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Post Post #2236 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:48 am

Post by massive »

Why would I hammer Axle when he's been my top town read all game? If I was scum, how could I possibly explain that satisfactorily tomorrow?
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Post Post #2237 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:48 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2232, pisskop wrote:Then lynh me.

In post 2233, pisskop wrote:Oh. you dont have the powah to.

In post 2234, pisskop wrote:So, you can either let people who
do
have the power to make the choice, or you can help us.


Who are you talking to?

So far... you dont have the powah to lynch me either.
but you have indeed got closer.

As before ircher is my one bigegst scum read at this time still.

You cant actually be serious.....
In post 2234, pisskop wrote:So, you can either let people who
do
have the power to make the choice, or you can help us.


It is not me that has consistently refused to explain reasons for things and play with the other townies who are alive, by letting know what you are thinking and why.
If you had, i might even have town read you more than Massive
if you had explained your reads, I might even have agreed.

but nope its dick waving or the highway according to you.
In post 2093, pisskop wrote:Good. So now instead of pandering for support, how about you vote like a man?
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Post Post #2238 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:49 am

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K. Its one today and probs the other tomorrow. Illpromise to reassess tho
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Post Post #2239 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:51 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2238, pisskop wrote:K. Its one today and probs the other tomorrow. Illpromise to reassess tho


Oh goody your a quadrupal voter and you make up your mind tomorrow
how very beneficent of you.

do please let us know whatever you deign at your earliest convenience.
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Post Post #2240 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:52 am

Post by pisskop »

Looks like scumflail to me.
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Post Post #2241 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:53 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2237, AxleGreaser wrote:but nope its dick waving or the highway according to you.


In post 2238, pisskop wrote:K. Its one today and probs the other tomorrow. Illpromise to reassess tho


and it still is
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Post Post #2242 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:53 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2240, pisskop wrote:Looks like scumflail to me.


and there you go again.
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Post Post #2243 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:01 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

So Heat I guess it is very much up to you.

Ircher will i expect pretty much lynch anything that is not him.
PK will lynch either of the people that are a real threat to him personally. (me and Massive) (I don't remember any real reasons for either)

I and Massive town read one another.

So you could plausibly lynch any of Ircher, Massive, or me.
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Post Post #2244 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:03 am

Post by pisskop »

Thank you for reiterating the options available to heat again. Keep up the high intensive posting :cool story:
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Post Post #2245 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:12 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2244, pisskop wrote:Thank you for reiterating the options available to heat again. Keep up the high intensive posting :cool story:


well you can keep up not actually posting reasoning for anything.

I am going to tell you now as i have realsied I dont care whethr this is your actual town meta or your best understanding of that as scum
In post 1570, pisskop wrote:I hate hat youre doing this. I feel like youre doing it for meta reasons.


PKB.

I see no towny merit in your approach to the game, except it would be nice to have as a meta when you roll scum.

Lynch anyone but me, scott no reasons
, does work well for all alignments, its just rather less than good as town.

The closets you got for reasons on me, is I opposed your lynch on massive.

or Looks like <insert adjective here>
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Post Post #2246 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:17 am

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Im not saying not to lynch me tho. I explicitly told heat to follow their heart.

Youre the only one wriggling here.
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Post Post #2247 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:57 am

Post by Ircher »

@Axle

Assuming your town, then if scum nk'd you, no one would even think about looking at why the nk occurred. While today has seen you under pressure, scum would still see you as the biggest threat.

On the other hand, any other nk would provide info, as we would then know it wasn't conducted on skill alone.

@Massive
I'm sorry, but it is hard to keep up with your reads when you post so little and refuse to provide a readlist. So, again, it was a reasonable and worthwhile assumption to make that you might consider hammering Axle with deadline approaching in ~36 hrs.

@Heat
Please make your decision (state intent) in about 12 or so hrs.
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Post Post #2248 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 6:19 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2246, pisskop wrote:Im not saying not to lynch me tho.


In post 2243, AxleGreaser wrote:PK will lynch either of the people that are a real threat to him personally. (me and Massive) (I don't remember any real reasons for either)


still
scott no reasons
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Post Post #2249 (ISO) » Sat Feb 27, 2016 6:25 am

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 2225, Ircher wrote:
In post 2218, massive wrote:There was never any danger of me hammering Axle, so I can't imagine why Ircher even brought it up.

As noted, leaving this here.

VOTE: Ircher

Will check back in the morning on my way out.

You know what, that is a horrible vote.

@PK, @Heat -->
Massive's the last scum
, Axle is just over analyzing stuff.

Why SHOULDN'T I consider the possibility that you COULD hammer. You guys do idiotic stuff if I don't spell some stuff like this out to you, so I don't get why that's a scumread.


What is horrible about the vote.
Who should he have voted and why would he do that?
What about him not doing that (but making a horrible vote) makes you
suddenly surer
for massive to be scum?

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