Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[Ranger]

Yo. This game's gonna take me a while to get fully situated, though my understanding is we have a deadline impending. I'm doing something like five things at once, so it might take me a while to get caught up, but the urgent nature of the situation means I'll be making this game a top priority until night falls and I inevitably get nightkilled. :P

[Ranger]

So this is just from pages 31 to the present, my list may change upon reading. It's a start, though.

{Xtoxm, chilledtea, texcat}
{Aneninen, Burning Crystal, Mad King Ashnard, Kop, KainTepes}
{davesaz}
{Almost50}
{Kuroi, acryon}

That's untouchable-town, strong-town, null, below-null, and well-below-null if you were wondering.
Obviously, this means I do not approve of the current wagons, so, uh:
VOTE: Kuroi.

[Ranger]

{Xtoxm, chilledtea, texcat, Mad King Ashnard, Aneninen}
{Burning Crystal, Kop, KainTepes}
{davesaz}
{Almost50}
{Kuroi, acryon}

This off the first four pages.

[Ranger]

Take that vote off me.

Honestly, my acryon scumread is stronger, but I didn't see any votes on acryon and I

did

see votes on you, so yeah.

[Ranger]

Dafuq was that.

Experience. Hold on, I'm going to add a table to my wiki to see the number of times I've been nightkilled. It's...large.

[Ranger]

Crunched the numbers.

5 town death N1
5 town deaths other nights
1 3P death N1
11 night deaths overall, out of 23 town games, 1 3P game, and 7 scum games.

I'm a walking punching bag for scumteams.

[Ranger]

I really believe scum don't care which of {Mad King Ashnard, Burning Crystal} gets lynched, because both are

really

looking like wagons on town.

[Ranger]

Has your opinion on texcat changed at all?

Nope, townread's not going away any time soon.

I don't understand Mad King Ashnard's reads at all. It's the Rask head, so that's not

as

concerning as if it were the RC head, but I very much want to hear RC go into his reads like that because the reads Rask posted look basically backwards.

[Ranger]

That is very generous.

Yes it is, the sucking-up did not go unnoticed, though he's not

that

far off to be honest. My accuracy rate in games sits comfortably in the 60% range, approximately.

On another note, Mad King is town.

Well,

yeah

, but I feel Burning Crystal is, too.

I was torn on BC, and I would still prefer a Kuroi lynch I think, but I'd go Burning Crystal.

This is scum who is distancing on Kuroi without actually bussing.

[Ranger]

Were there certain posts of theirs that felt town to you?

Literally every post of theirs that I've read has felt town.

I don't understand the suspicion on them at all.

[Ranger]

Kuroi I'm not fully convinced about him being scum, but the 2 votes on him are coming from players I would be willing to trust in their reads. *Scratches Head*
I'll tell you what: UNVOTE: for now. I'm not ready to vote Kuroi yet.

Also probably scum with Kuroi.

[Ranger]

Firstly, Ranger in her 881 is trying to convince us how obv-town she is, which I definitely don't like.

What.

I mean, doesn't change that I

am

obviously town, but I've made absolutely no effort until this post to vocalize that sentiment.

KainThraddash (and maybe Almost?) liked it, Ranger did not.

Wrong. I didn't like the conclusions. That does not mean I did not like the wall. To the contrary, it only reinforced my townread. But what I want is content from RC, rather than Raskolnikov.

[Ranger]

Erm, call me an idiot, but what if Acryon is scum?

Then I lynch him.

VOTE: acryon.

[Ranger]

Everyone is saying he's scummy but won't vote him.

To the contrary, I see a lot of people saying, "meh" on them and not taking a hard stance: even those who join the wagon. The people voting them don't care if they're actually lynched.

This is almost a surefire sign they are town. Which fits with my read there anyway.

[Ranger]

Texcat - (7) Chilledtea, Almost50, xtoxm, kop, kain tepes, davesaz, kuroixhf

If there's scum on here, it's Almost50.

I actually think scum are more inclined to have stayed off the wagon, though.
Like, saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay...

VOTE: acryon.

[Ranger]

I can see there goes the quickwagon.

Agreed. The wagon on you's not great.

However, I remain convinced Burning Crystal is town. Nothing I've seen indicates them being scum, and a lot of their posting still looks like town.

And that's what I think was a scumslip.
It sounds as if you know that I'll flip town.

You're gonna have to explain that to me. I see Titus saying she'll analyze your wagon. That applies regardless of your alignment. If you were to flip scum (you won't, I can tell that much), then the wagon would be useful, especially for finding town. If you were to flip town (you will), then the wagon is still useful, for finding scum in particular.

[Ranger]

Ranger, why Acryon?

Because acryon is being opportunistic-as-hell, pursuing the easiest, most convenient, unoriginal stances. I see little to no original thought, just pressuring the latest fad.

[Ranger]

OK, your follow up read list would be much appreciated still.

You

lynched my strongest townread

.
Not much could change my list after

that

.

{Xtoxm, chilledtea, Mad King Ashnard, Aneninen}
{Burning Crystal, KainTepes}
{davesaz, Kop}
{Almost50}
{acryon}

[Ranger]

I don't like Ranger's readlist at all. Almost everyone is town according to her

No duh? That's because almost everyone in this game drew a town PM. How many players in this game are scum? Two? Three? Four? I didn't bother to check the setup, doesn't matter though, because regardless, that still means most players are town. My reads reflect that because in this game, people were

really

good at making themselves obvtown.

So far she has been suspicious of 1) Kuroi, 2) Almost, 3) Davesaz, 4) Acryon.
3 of the above 4 are claimed PR.

First point of clarity, dave is not a scumread, he's a null-read.

Second point: Why can't scum claim to be a PR?

In particular, Almost50's sheeping of me is godawful. 1088 is just the latest post where he, in spite of knowing

I am scumreading him

, puts faith in my reads ANYWAY. It's buddying. It's sheeping. It's hiding behind my reads rather than making his own. I don't care that he claimed a PR. I still think he's scum.

[Ranger]

Why would scum roleclaim midway through day 1 with no pressure whatsoever?

This is dependent on the player. There's not a universal answer. The question isn't why scum would roleclaim, it's why Almost50 would roleclaim under no pressure. The answer is because that's what he'd do.

How is being the first person to start the wagon on someone who is fairly widely town-read opportunistic?

Being the first vote doesn't matter. Someone having been previously widely townread also doesn't matter if momentum has begun to shift onto them. That's what I've seen from your votes.

[Ranger]

UNVOTE: acryon.
He, uh.
Might be town.

I need a rethink.

[Ranger]

Actually.
VOTE: Almost50.
acryon might be town, but Almost50 remains a dirty scumbag.

[Ranger]

Are you afraid I would protect the cop from a NK before they actually get a read on you/your team members?

No. Frankly, I don't buy your choice of protection.

If you were going for a PR, why not Kuroi?
If you were instead going off of play, why not protect, say, the person you're idolizing? (I.e., why didn't you protect me?)
There's cognitive dissonance between your actions and your words.

You hinting I'm buddying you when you KNOW I idolize your town play for one.

And I've also made it clear I do not take kindly to buddying of me.

Your persistence I'm scum when I have little doubt in your ability to read me correct, not to mention your weird reads which go against most what everybody else is thinking.

Name one game where my reads went with what everyone else was thinking.
Oh, they exist.
I just dare

you

, with

your

experience of me, off of our games, to name a single game where this was the case. Every game with you I can recall I distinctly remember reads clashes with every player.

Furthermore, my read on you in past games has always been questionable, contrary to your claims. Yes, I end up correct more often than not, but

by a hair's breadth each time

, and yet you are treating me as if I am practically infallible.

[Ranger]

For the record: Blitz 16, first Almost50 game I had.
He never reached above the midway point on my reads list, and started as my strongest scumread.

Here, I started with a right read, alright, but...the last post I had about Almost50 was

thinking he could be scum

. To the point where he was the second person on my scum list as of my last readslist to include his name.

Blitz22 I utterly failed to get a read on anyone, at all, even remotely...him included.

The

only

game I accurately read Almost50 was This game, and that's in part because Titus and Persivul were just

that

obviously scum.

[Ranger]

As for YOU, well.. you never crumbed or hinted anything. Why would scum shot at you on N1 anyway?

Same reason they

always

do: fear of me, either gained from the game or carried over from a previous one.

[Ranger]

WHAT IS THIS MEANING??

Exactly what it sounds like? What's not to get? I'm a frequent nightkill. Scum usually fear me. Sometimes, it is based off of past game experience, if the scum have played with me before and fear my talents from that game. Other times, it's because I've earned the respect of the scum in the current game in spite of no prior record. In either case, I still die early and often.

[Ranger]

prodge
activity coming at some point etc

This, unfortunately.

Tomorrow, I will be here.

Today, not so much.

[Ranger]

Right, so power was out yesterday, thus why I didn't catch up, but I'm here now.

[Ranger]

The more times you post how town you are the more FoS you get from me.

That was not posting about how town I am. That was stating facts. It is objectively true that I get nightkilled often. It is objectively true that scum usually are afraid of me. A statement of how town I am would be, "I mean, I am town, but...". Which

this

post is doing, yes. But that post was not.

What are your reasons for thinking that Ranger could possibly be scum?

What are your reasons for thinking I wouldn't be? Especially given,

And if you don't die, that means your not town, right?

Can't get a read properly - Mad King Ashnard, Ranger

These. (And to answer: no, it simply means scum did not view me as the largest threat. While I do get nightkilled a disproportionately high number of games, it is not necessarily immediately on N1, and depending on game length, may never happen. I'm

always

town.)

[Ranger]

BC might indeed be scum, but both Kop and acryon are looking far worse with their posting.
Almost50 continues to not look town, either.

[Ranger]

Have I accused you of possibly being scum?

Kind-of, sort-of, yes.

Thus, why your comment defending me sticks out like a sore thumb.

[Ranger]

Please talk to me about how you think Acryon is looking worse with his posting

The waffle in 1209. The focus on dave in 1211. Stuff like that.

[Ranger]

So are you veering away from Acyron could be town stance now?

Yes.

How is pointing out a bad part of a post a waffle?

Thankfully we still have 7 days to work things out.

This is the waffle. Stating we have time to work things out is stating that there's seven days to figure Burning Crystal out, i.e. waffle.

[quote="acryon]And do you not see a problem with what dave did?[/quote] None. He's not exactly a town beacon, but I've no issues with his posts.

[Ranger]

I didn't say they were scummy per se either. My intent was to get davesaz to talk, which I was successful in doing. Sometimes a FoS or vote will get that done quicker than just asking nicely.

This is backtracking at its finest. An FoS is, by definition, accusing a player of doing something scummy. Votes serve much the same purpose. (I realize "I voted for reactions!" is a theoretically-plausible action, but it's an awful one which virtually nobody uses for good reason.)

Ranger is probably scum. Vote remains on a claimed PR, but no real attempts to do anything with that.

And the scum motivation for this is...?

He literally is waffling by his definition while defining my waffling in the same post.

Oh, really? Point out where. 'Cause that post is calling you scum, and nothing other than calling you scum.

I think lynching KT will help clear the view much better. For one thing, he's being suspected by many (including myself) but not as many are committed to voting him, thus he remains a distraction.

This is scum, going for the easy lynch, hiding behind policy.

[Ranger]

RANGER finds me suspiciuos but he is one of the MOST TOWNIES

Sorry to shoot you down, Kain, but, uh...I'm actually not scumreading you. You're actually a strong townread of mine.

[Ranger]

what town suggests a missing kill was because they got JK'd?

Oh, Burning Crystal is probably scum anyway, but it's not for this, let me assure you. Titus is that arrogant as both town and scum, so I fully believe she thinks she was the nightkill and got JK'd.

[Ranger]

You're really saying that people don't vote for reactions for good reason?

Voting for pressure, as long as it's not explicitly stated to be a pressure-vote, is fine.

That is not voting for reactions.
That is

certainly

not FoSing for reactions.

So yes. I call BS.

The scum motivation is to put a vote out on someone controversial so it doesn't look like you're just sitting back, but then not go anywhere with it so you have no PR blood on your hands if he were to be lynched and flip PR.

I take full responsibility each time I'm wrong. I never expect any less.

So, no.

Someone asked you if you were veering away from believing me to be town and you say yes, and then damn me for potentially veering from a townread on someone else.

The difference is: when I was asked if I was steering away from a townread, I unambiguously and bluntly said "yes, I am, I'm scumreading acryon for these reasons".
When you veered away from Burning Crystal, you did so as a strong waffle.

Ranger, consider Almost50 confirmed town.

What are your reads in this game?

Unchanged except for the maybe-need for one extra person as scum. {acryon, Kop, Almost50, Burning Crystal} is where I'm looking at. So if Almost50 were removed, then I'd assume either we're in a 3-scum setup or I'm townreading one scum.

[Ranger]

Toyota.

[Ranger]

1288 is a good post.
I don't think Burning Crystal is groupscum.
There's the obvious chance of Serial Killer, but definitely not groupscum.

[Ranger]

I am still not sure. But they make sense in a way.
Like I still don't like their reasoning regarding their assumption of 2 kills. But ultimately it was indeed a vote on the basis of a couple of posts, and in my experience it is best to wait for some time.

VOTE: Kop

I still think anen is town though. I have a strong town read on MKA. Town read on xtoxm. I will set aside BC for now.

All of ^this is me right now.
(The only part I cut was the acryon townread.)

VOTE: Kop.

[Ranger]

Anen, you have a few points in 1315/1318 that I'm pretty sure even I could defend against, and I'm not Burning Crystal. I'll let them respond to them, but needless to say: I don't think you're right, here.

[Ranger]

Ask your questions.

Basically I have no problem with a POE pool (what they actually said), which is not a "these players are scum" pool (what you assumed they said). I have no problem with their setup spec,

especially

not from Titus (I'd frankly be suspicious if Titus did NOT do setup spec short of the game being a full-on open...and maybe even then!). I also don't have a problem with their reads in of themselves: I think their scumread on you is

wrong

, but I do not think it is scum-motivated.

So like I said. I don't think they're scum.

[Ranger]

(You're probably right about acryon being scum, though!)

[Ranger]

anen would be a good compromise. kop would too.

Anen, no, Kop, yes.

Kain's still town by the way, so the vote park there is bad.

[Ranger]

Proddng Mad King Ashnard

RC's gonna complain because he probably didn't realize he posted from the wrong account. (Viva's his alt.)

VOTE: Kop.

[Ranger]

Aneninen:

Burning Crystal is not a lynch happening today. I'm trying to stop your lynch (which shouldn't go through), but I don't trust the town enough to assume it will never go through. So in the interest of self-preservation, can you vote Kop?

Xtoxm:

KainTepes is not a lynch happening today. You voiced Kop suspicion, and deadline

is

near. So can you please help me lynch him?

[Ranger]

What's the town motivation for discrediting me then?

If they're scumreading you, of course they're going to "discredit" (note airquotes) you. They're trying to lynch ya.

...and we know it was him who had Alt-slipped, because of...?

Viva La Gloria is a public RC alt.
Viva posted, so...RC alt-slipped.

[Ranger]

Guys, I'm not feeling too confident in Kop's lynch. He doesn't strike me as anything scum would do in this situation. He's neither desperately defensive nor is he trying to counter or start another wagon. He's acting defeated distributing curses and creating WIFOM.

I'm sorry, but I'm much more comfortable with a KT lynch.

VOTE: KT

^Scum avoiding the bus.

[Ranger]

I was wrong about chilledtea.

Seriously, seriously wrong.

I'm pretty sure chilledtea is scum, now.

Literally every single one of his posts today screams, "Herp derp, I'm scum but scum make up 50% of the town, trololololol we're gonna win XD XD XD".

Who's the scumbuddy, probably acryon, though I'm not sure. I was

really

expecting Kop to flip scum and was not anticipating an Almost50 townflip, either, so I AM going to review that, but acryon was a suspect in prior days, and his attitude here does suggest chilledtea as a scumbuddy.

As for the other team...I want Xtoxm to claim. His alignment depends on his roleclaim. Burning Crystal is

probably

scum, but not certainly so. I also do need to reevaluate KainTepes, who I had

assumed

was town, but everyone pushing him has flipped town so that's not an assumption I can continue to make.

[Ranger]

Do I need to spell out the acryon-chilledtea interactions on page 58?
Because I can

not

be the only one seeing their ridiculously-fake exchange.

Aneninen is a player being voted by both scumteams, in this case, Burning Crystal on one scumteam and acryon on the other. He's town.
davesaz might not be mod-confirmed town via the roles in the game (it's possible, albeit improbable, Almost50 was roleblocked), but I'm pretty sure he's town anyway.

That leaves {Xtoxm, KainTepes} for the last scum slot.
It's really that simple.

[Ranger]

The game is very clearly setup 12 because chilledtea is pretty blatantly broadcasting, "oh, yeah, I'm scum and I know the setup", and via the posts, very obviously it's 12.
Setup 10 is impossible, because

1 Town Jailer, 1 Town Cop, 6 Town Citizen, 1 Town Weak Bodyguard, 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 SK

...It has 3 scum and chilledtea is acting confidently in there being four.

[Ranger]

Still think that Adenine is town.

This half-clears Aneninen (maybe full-clears, depending on whether Almost50 was shot or suicided; impossible to know the difference), because Aneninen would

not

shoot someone hard-townreading them.

The most likely person to have killed them is Burning Crystal.

[Ranger]

So, my final scum team prediction is Ranger, chilled & KT. (IF Kop flips town).

Assuming Almost50 did not suicide (which is not impossible), and also did not correctly protect (which is not impossible), then this provides a nice incentive for a scumteam including chilledtea to nightkill him.

[Ranger]

Also, this is why I want an Xtoxm claim.
Bluntly...if he's the tracker, he's town because I'd believe a tracker claim from him; it'd look like a deliberate attempt to lay low, a la Metal Gear Solid.

If he's

not

the tracker, Xtoxm's the fourth scum because if he's

not

laying low because of a power role (and he's definitely not a cop), then the alternative explanation is...he's scum.

[Ranger]

So, to put things in perspective:
Aneninen is town, period. davesaz is town, period.
{Xtoxm, KainTepes} contains the tracker and the scum; whichever isn't the tracker is scum.
{Burning Crystal} is the partner to the scum above.
{acryon, chilledtea} are blatantly and obviously a scumteam, who knows that if they avoid getting lynched today, they probably win, especially if scum don't (or can't) crosskill them.
I can go more specific than that: I'm pretty sure in that pairing, chilledtea's the roleblocker.

[Ranger]

Right now, I'm trying to number crunch a path to victory. We need to lynch scum, but I need to figure out whether it's better to lynch a scum roleblocker or a scum goon. (Conventional logic in a traditional game dictates lynch the roleblocker. However, that would create a power imbalance, giving the other scumteam domination over the game, since the town's power roles are outed and the scum are obvious. So I'm trying to figure out the math in regards to best case and worst case scenarios between lynching roleblocker vs. lynching goon.)

[Ranger]

Also, did a double-iso of acryon and chilledtea. (Really shoulda been a triple, including EE.)

I dare you to read the Extrapolated Eagle-acryon interactions and tell me with a straight face, "Oh, yeah, that's two town interacting with one another."

The dynamic between acryon and chilledtea didn't change after chilledtea came in, either. chilledtea replaces in at 684. The first time acryon interacts with chilledtea is 1128, and never once does he attempt to get a read on chilledtea. He's not interacting with chilledtea as someone he doesn't know the alignment of; he's interacting with his scumbuddy. His read on chilledtea? A blind "feels town", nothing more. Their interaction is faked and forced the entire time, because they are scumbuddies.

[Ranger]

2 mafia goons + 1 mafia godfather + 1 sk = 3?
How is that 3?

I misread. I was sure that setup was 1 goon + 1 godfather + 1 SK = 3 scum.

So, I was wrong.

My analysis remains unchanged in this case, though:
You are still scum with acryon, and probably the power role of your scumteam.
There are still four scum in the game and you still went "herp derp there are four scum in the game, we're gonna win, trololololol".
Burning Crystal is still scum, if I had to guess, scum opposite of you, being either a serial killer (10) or second scum (12).
The only difference here is on {KainTepes, Xtoxm}.
If Xtoxm is a tracker, he's town. If he's not a tracker, he's scum.
If KainTepes is a tracker, we're in setup 12. If KainTepes is not a tracker, then it depends: if Xtoxm is also not a tracker, then KainTepes is VT and still town. If Xtoxm

is

a tracker, then KainTepes is scum.

So basically,
Xtoxm is only town if he's a tracker. Otherwise, he's scum.
KainTepes is only scum if Xtoxm is a tracker. Otherwise, he's town.
{acryon, chilledtea} are still scum together; {Burning Crystal} is still scum and probably their opposite.

Though...all this analysis supports one course of action: lynch within {acryon, chilledtea} because if we

are

in setup 10, lynching Burning Crystal (who would be the serial killer in that case) loses us the game instantly.

[Ranger]

Xtoxm's insistence of townreading chilledtea and acryon actually makes me think he's probably scum with them, actually.

[Ranger]

705 confirms it, too.
chilledtea is scum with acryon and Xtoxm.

[Ranger]

954 is also classically noncommittal on acryon. 1093 comments on the three power roles but doesn't mention why he doesn't like my suspicion on acryon. 1134 is WILDLY inconsistent: "I'm against the acryon lynch" implies a reason for it. Yet in that same paragraph, we get "I cannot read him", which is

not

a reason to be against a lynch...to the contrary, it's potentially a reason to support a lynch: see also, how chilledtea is okay with policy-lynching a player like KainTepes. Then, finishing, you get "I can see them as town", contradicting the statement of being unable to read them.

The real seller is 1240: chilledtea asks some empty, worthless questions to acryon...and then,

never follows through with them

. At all. The subject is just dropped, with no continuity. Did chilledtea just forget, altogether, about them? Was acryon's answers simply SO satisfactory that chilledtea didn't even so much as give a "mkay, makes sense"? Yeah, no. It's because it was an empty interaction, meant to look good without actually going anywhere. You can see it because in chilledtea's next mention of acryon, 1301, makes no reference to the interaction at all. He also goes into no detail about the read at literally any time.

This is because the interaction is shallow and fake.

[Ranger]

There's also how chilledtea has driven

both

lynches this game.

I was firmly against a texcat lynch, which chilledtea spearheaded at deadline to go through anyway.
I was firmly in support of the Kop lynch, but chilledtea pushed it even harder than I did.
So now, all chilledtea has to do is push

one

more mislynch through in order to win.

[Ranger]

So, can you tell me where I went "We are gonna win , trolrolorl" or whatever?

Hmm. There are two kills which means that burning crystal was correct. Which means we either have a serial killer or a two scumteams. Regardless of the fact, there seem to be only 4 townies left. :(

"Ha, I cannot lose! I can maybe draw if things don't go according to plan, but I'm probably going to win!" 1432/1433 also show faked efforts to not know the setup.

Assuming there are 4 townies left, if we lose two more next night, without lynching a scum, then practically we have lost the game. In case a serial killer exists we are outnumbered by mafia, otherwise we are just flat out outnumbered 2 : 4. If we lynch the serial killer, then we reduce a kill every night and if we lynch mafia then it could be effectively 2 : 3 : 1 tomorrow. This is assuming the worst, that we lose 2 town tomorrow. Losing Kuroi was really bad.

This is just plain gloating. "Your protectives are dead. We're not likely to be lynched. We're winning." 1436 is focusing on every lynchable player and taking waffly stances on them all, effectively saying, "I could lynch any of them, whoever's most convenient to vote!" (It also, coincidentally, elevates acryon to the level of confirmed town for absolutely no reason.) 1438 is saying, "Yo, if we lynch BC, we win because nothing could stop us then!"

It's all fake, it's all sending the message of "We've already won, we just have to not literally claim scum". It's dicking around without actually being productive, actually being firm, actually doing work, because at this stage you believe none is necessary. No need to sort alignments, because you know them already. No need to try and figure out who's a mislynch, because you already know who is. No need to try and sort the game at all, not even fake it, because you're in a position where players thought you were town and you were confident this would remain unchanged today.

[Ranger]

I'll have to compare Ranger's analysis to actual events. She's either spot on or it's a remarkable feat of misdirection.

Neither; I did make an error in my earlier analysis, but it was exactly that: an error, something which unintentionally weakened my argument once revealed.

This doesn't clear him in any capacity, especially if there are scum and WW.

And I never said it did. I said it

half

-cleared him, especially if Almost50 died by his role, because it'd mean that Aneninen was not responsible for

that

kill, the kill we know was absolutely 100% from scum. (Whereas with Almost50, there's ambiguity: he could have been shot directly, he could have correctly protected someone who was the target of a nightkill, OR he could have protected scum; it's literally impossible to know which.)

[Ranger]

I am the tracker.

I will admit, this is a scenario I did not predict which is actually a reasonable explanation for your posts during the opening of today. I'm somewhat-skeptical, but not to the point of absolute disbelief.

It should be obvious that, via my earlier posts, I claimed by implication as VT.

acryon goes next.

[Ranger]

Ranger has been hard defending Anen but hard tunnelling me. I don't know whether she is town.

Because I remain convinced that Aneninen is town. I can't quite put words to why, but it's a very hard townread. The scumread on you was off of something that made sense once you explained: a tracker in this situation would be acting almost identically to scum in this situation, and because I'm

not

informed, I was not able to make this connection until after you claimed when it made sense.

From where I stand in the pool of {acryon, KainTepes, Burning Crystal, Aneninen}, Aneninen is town, no matter what. Burning Crystal is scum, no matter what. The question is therefore which of {acryon, KainTepes} is scum. I'm

still

scumreading acryon, and while KainTepes

could

be scum, I don't think he is. But I do promise that if I live through the night, I will keep an open mind.

[Ranger]

Her analysis regarding how we should lynch the goon instead of the roleblocker seemed practically fake.

Except I never said that?

I said I wasn't sure lynching the roleblocker would be necessarily superior, because it'd create a power imbalance in the scumteams: one scumteam would become dominant in the game. I still haven't crunched the math on it, and it remains a valid concern. Lynching a roleblocker has the advantages of removing a roleblock from the game, but the disadvantage of the imbalance in a situation where scum control half the town and even the slightest mis-step can create a situation where we cannot control the fate of the game. Which is why I wanted to do the math.

I

think

it's okay to lynch the roleblocker. He's confirmed scum, and any other lynch would be...well, not confirmed scum, so a shot in the dark, maybe hitting town, maybe hitting the other roleblocker, maybe hitting a scum goon. I'm just more cautious about it. Someone who's faster at crunching the numbers can run the math to show me the worst-case and best-case and middle-case scenarios for both goon and roleblocker lynches if they'd like.

[Ranger]

Ranger why did you think I was the roleblocker?

Because you were acting like a scum power role.
I thought at the time that you could only be a roleblocker because I was under the assumption setup 12 was the only 4-scum setup and you were acting like you knew it was the 4-scum setup. When I realized there was a second setup with four scum in it, I amended my statement, to roleblocker-or-godfather, depending on the setup, for the same logic: you knew it was a four-scum setup and were acting like a scum power role.

I was

half

-right: you knew it was the 4-scum setup because of your role, and you WERE a power role. Just not a scum one.

Ranger, if you really are town, then there is also a small chance of {anen, kt} being the scum team.

Small chance, yes, but very, VERY unlikely. Again, I'm almost 100% convinced Aneninen is town, but I can't explain why.

[Ranger]

Ranger, why didn't alarm bells ring in your head when BC did something similar on day 2?

What do you mean?

Burning Crystal literally went from top-tier townread to top-tier scumread.

I

did

react the same way.

[Ranger]

So I still am thinking BC is scum.
And still am thinking acryon is scum.

Their pile-up onto Aneninen yesterday was not good.

But I

did

promise chilledtea I would look at all the options. Including Anen as possible-scum. I just really don't think Anen is, because Aneninen reconsidered his read on me in this game off of information he gained from Nethersprite's Semi-open Role Madness game, where he got to see me play as a serial killer when he himself was scum. That reconsidering of the read was

exactly

after he lynched me there, and I don't think he would do that as scum.

[Ranger]

For the record: 1305 is where Anen's read on me changed to town, on March 18th. He all-but says it's because of an ongoing game he cannot discuss.

I was lynched in that game on the 16th.

So, yeah, that's why I think Aneninen's town.

It also helps that at least on Anen's end...it doesn't make sense for him to be a BC scumbuddy (they've been at each others' throats the whole game), and while more feasible than BC, acryon's not a great fit either because of their mutual pushes against each other, too.

BC-acryon, on the other hand, fits, because they've both pushed Aneninen in the same way, and pushed each other in about the same way, largely distancing without actually focusing on each other.

[Ranger]

I don't see myself voting anyone else today.

VOTE: acryon.

So, I'll risk it.

[Ranger]

...

[Ranger]

I can't believe people didn't call me out on my BC interaction. I kept them in a position where I never needed to vote them: defending them when it was within reason to defend them, and when the tides turned against them for scummy content which was undeniably scummy (even if not impossible from town), scumreading them lightly without actually pushing them.

To be fair, I was legitimately scumhunting. I thought acryon was scum up until KainTepes flipped. I thought Kop was legitimately scum prior to that. (Not to mention, thinking chilledtea was scum until chilledtea claimed tracker; I thought Xtoxm was the tracker, or failing that, KainTepes.) Totally BSed my Almost50 read (and Almost50 actually correctly picked up on my scumtell: no listing!), but other than that I was being honest, so I suppose that helped. Being scum in multiball allows for a lot of similarity to my town game.

Oh release mafia pt

Yeah, you have my authorization too.

[Ranger]

Increasingly my opinion, yes. (Ironic since I really want to run a multiball setup.)