Mini 1782 Game Over

[a plain farmer]

My reaction to jake vs frozen? You mean my lack of one? I posed some questions to Jake and FA, but I didn't get any reads from their actual 1v1. And my scumread on Clumsy D1 was initially a gut read. It kept getting stronger, though, and I posted with that case on him after I looked back through the game to figure out in concrete terms what my gut didn't like about him.

I of course oppose lynching Max, but at L-1 with two people giving intent to hammer, it looks like he's pretty much dead. I'll swap out mhsmith with FAQ in my lynchpool, making it {FAQ, Huntress, Garmr, Lowell}. If anyone is having second thoughts and wants to get a flash lynch on one of those, speak up now.

[mhsmith0]

If it's wolf!max, I'm mildly surprised he isn't fake claiming. But I'd rather not let him WIFOM his way out of it, and no one is really jumping out at me as a particularly better lynch.

ninja'd: @APF: None of the other cases really jump out at me right now. If you want to hard sell one of them, I'll at least listen. But I'm not going to stand hard against a Max lynch barring a strong case on someone else.

[Dierfire]

Vote Count - Day 2 VC #9.D

Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (0) -
Huntress (1) - Max
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -

Max (5) (L-1) - Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Rosh

FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Garmr (0) -
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2
Rosh (1) - Lowell
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (2) - Garmr, Mhsmith

Deadline

Day 2 will end on May 2 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-02 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Dier makes a useful post for once?

[mhsmith0]

If Max is a wolf, it's kinda weird that there's not much interest in saving him from his buddies. OTOH, if he's town, it's kinda weird that he's not really been fighting it. I think I'd die of shock if he was a mafia PR, so it's VT or goon. Last call: does ANYONE (other than APF) feel like trying to save Max? Otherwise I can't say that I object to a hammer.

[Garmr]

VOTE: maxous

N

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 2 VC #10 - LYNCH

Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (0) -
Huntress (1) - Max
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -

Max (6) (Lynch) - Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Rosh, Garmr

FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Garmr (0) -
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2
Rosh (1) - Lowell
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (1) - Mhsmith

Deadline

Day 2 will end on May 2 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-02 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Maxous was lynched

[Ircher]

Maxous,

Vanilla Townie

, was lynched Day 2.

It is now Night 2.

All night actions should be submitted to BOTH me AND Dierfire. I will not accept any actions that aren't submitted to both of us. If you change your mind, simply submit a new pm with the new action you wish to take,

Night 2 ends in (expired on 2016-05-03 20:30:00)

[Ircher]

Day 3 Begins!

No kill occurred.

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 3 VC #1

Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (0) -
Huntress (0) -
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -
FA_Q2 (0) -
Garmr (0) -
Plain (0) -
Lowell (0) -
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (10) - Mhsmith, Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Rosh, Garmr, Plain, FA_Q2, Lowell

Deadline

Day 3 will end on May 13 8:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-13 20:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Mod Notes

None

[Titus]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

[mhsmith0]

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

[JohnnyFarrar]

No kill, sorta makes that long add night feel pointless

[mhsmith0]

btw, I'd lol so hard post game if the mafia simply forgot to pm their kill to both Ircher and Dier.

[Titus]

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

[Froot Loop]

There's a few options. We can definitely keep note of it and it's a point to discuss but we shouldn't let that be the only option. Either way, we can now see people's attitudes towards lynching two townies.

[Garmr]

VOTE: Plain

[JohnnyFarrar]

Go on

[Garmr]

Honestly I'm having difficulty getting into this game but I decided to start by looking on the main wagon yesterday and the reasoning people provided for being on it.

(side note maxous appears scummy to me as well for his behavior around the wagon.)

A stand out to me is plain farmer.

He goes a long time having clumsy as a scum read before giving any reasoning. Then in post 40 in his iso he goes full out on clumsy right around the time the max wagon was dropping. I this is new but the format of his post changes in post 964 actually dropping a case and then goes after it. The timing for his push seems to convenient to me for this harder push.

Also before clumsy he doesn't really push that hard and his reaction to jake vs frozen was weird to me it's like he was trying to keep in it and be active while making sure not to get to drawn into if you know what I mean(don't know if I conveyed that right).

[mhsmith0]

@Garmr: Given that APF was essentially pushing a clear preference for the Clumsy wagon instead of the Max wagon, wouldn't that suggest town given that Max was VT? As mafia, what's the rationale for not just pushing one wagon, but pushing pretty hard against the other one? Looking for town credit given flips? Distancing from buddies who are on Max? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

At any rate, here are the final vote counts from D1 and D2. Given that both Clumsy and Max ended up lynched, I'm not sure how important the D1 shifts between the two wagons are - if anyone cares it might be worth digging into, but I don't feel like it ATM. The other mid-day stuff on D1 was when Nos maxed at out three votes: Lowell, FA (Johnny), RC (Titus). On D2, no one other than Max really got much momentum.

Day 1

Max

(4) - Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress
Lowell (1) -

Nos

Clumsy

(7) (Lynch) - Lowell, FA_Q2, Plain, Mhsmith, Max, Johnny, Rosh
Not Voting (1) - Shaddow

Day 2
Huntress (1) -

Max

Max

(6) (Lynch) - Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Rosh, Garmr
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2
Rosh (1) - Lowell
Not Voting (1) - Mhsmith

I'll try and dig into the D1 details a bit more when I have the time. Likely won't be tonight.

[Titus]

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

[mhsmith0]

Yep. The game state is a bit weird to have had two meaningful wagons combined, both on flipped towns, with the third mini-wagon (Nos) also being a confirmed townie. I'd be lying if I said I had an immediate answer for wtf it means.

[Froot Loop]

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

I think it's unlikely to help if we start with an idea of what scum might have been doing and then working backwards. I think VCA can help but most likely when it's compared with what a player's been saying or their attitudes towards the wagons in the game. There's so many possible patterns of scum behaviour that starting from that side is pretty difficult.

I think it's relevant that there weren't very many other options yesterday apart from Max although I guess Lowell was the counterwagon. A lot of the votes on Max in D2 were the same as D1. It's possible that scum saw/understood the pressure on Max, and the willingness to lynch him, and saw that they didn't need to do anything to try to get a mislynch.

That makes me recontextualise Lowell's push on Roshar, FA_Q2's questioning of Titus and APF's vote on FA_Q2. I'd also say that Johnny and Titus' behaviour in D2 fits this description of possible scum play from reading D2 in this context. Garmr came in and talked about APF but it was a little late in the day (because of the replacement, totally null) to be considered for this point.

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max. So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch. I'm not saying it's AI (Max talked about it as well, so obviously) but that's another point.

About Lowell's Roshar push - he voted for Max, Max called him out, then Lowell pushed Roshar. Considering the pressure on Max, I think it's an unlikely scum play to move onto Roshar. There seems to be more value and it'd be legitimate to continue pushing Max.

[Roshar]

The best display of someone who kept actively avoiding both the max and clumsy lynch on D1 is Huntress, despite finding

both

slots scummy/not town lean at one point or another.

Huntress on Clumsy:

This is her finding Clumsy scummy after catching up:

My initial scum reads are Roshar, Froot Loop and Clumsy but there are one or two others who haven't made an impression on me and I need to look back to see why that is.

This is her realizing she was late on the Clumsy wagon:

Still not sure about Clumsy, but I'm liking the wagon on him even less than I liked his earlier posts, and his later posts seem to be better.

****************************

Huntress on Max:

This is her not only saying she'd vote for him if the time came, but saying she didn't like his posting D1.

In my case it's because I'm not very keen on either wagon. Clumsy was an initial scum read but his later posts have been better. It's the other way round with Jake/Max. Jake's early posting looked null to town

but Max not so much. Out of those two I'd prefer to vote Max.

This is Huntress' response when I asked her why she wasn't voting for Max when there was one day left in D1.

@Huntress, any reason why you're taking your time voting Max? With less than a day left?

There was more than a day left when I made my last post so I was quite ok with leaving the vote till today.

Call it a reluctance to vote the same way as my main scum read.

Refusing to vote because of someone on the wagon? Really? The reluctance is you not wanting to get your hands dirty.

Anyone up for a flashwagon on Roshar? Or even Lowell? I'd really prefer to lynch them to either of the current wagons.

This was end of D1,

there was less than a day left

. The fact that you suggested a flash lynch at that point is ludicrous. This is not something town would have considered had town been faced with two slots they knew nothing about (and had found one of them scummy at one point, and the other not a town lean). This is scum knowing both alignments and wanting to demonstrate strong adversity to lynching town.



When she finally votes for Maxous after prodding from me:

So how about Roshar or Lowell as alternatives?


I don't think there's a realistic chance of lynching Roshar now, judging by recent posts and looking back at the ISO's of those who haven't posted yet today,

so I'm moving my vote now but I'll be around for the rest of the day and I'm still very much open to a lynch on Lowell if enough people are willing

.

Vote: Maxous

"I really don't want to vote max, but I have no choice. Look how reluctant I am!"

So you literally disappeared most of D1 and never pushed any other lynch, and you come out in the final hours of the day and demonstrate strong reluctance over the vote, strong enough that you're willing to attempt to divert the lynch with less than a day left. It's so disingenuous.

Your D2 performance makes little sense too. Without providing so much as a reason, Max becomes your number 1 scum read. For someone who showed constant reluctance on voting him D1, there is absolutely no progression that led to that stance.


VOTE: Huntress




What do you think of my analysis,

Garmr

?

I'm finding your vote on APF interesting.

[Roshar]

Froot, you keep bringing up the pointless discussion on the neighbor slot like I kept yapping and yapping on my own about it for no reason. You were the one who kept asking me multiple times about as if it was the most pertinent thing in the world. And now you are saying you find it scummy for clarifying? Are you listening to yourself?