Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

[Ranger]

And now I KNOW I want to lynch that spot before it's too late :P

<3

[Ranger]

(But Almost50 is probably scum for that hammer especially literally

right

after saying we should wait for me to get caught up.)

[Ranger]

Almost is confirmed town.

You expect me to know these things literally 30 seconds after replacing in?

[Ranger]

It'd help if people could summarize the results/claims for me now.

I mean.

You can have me read through the game and be hilariously wrong if you'd really

like

, but I would much prefer you let my catchup (what little I can actually do today) have ALL the relevant info.

[Ranger]

(Basically, I'm going to do what catching up I can before the mod comes in and locks the thread, but I'm going in literally blind right now and will make mistakes like the Almost50 one apparently is unless you tell me.)

[Ranger]

{Almost50}
{pisskop}
{Lowell, shotty, Killthestory}
{Kop}
{duppin}

One.

[Ranger]

{Almost50}
{pisskop}
{Lowell, Killthestory, shotty}
{Kop}
{Autti}
{duppin}

Two.

[Ranger]

That's probably as much as I'm getting, since I know the mod's online, but I'll try to continue squeezing things in.

[Ranger]

Correction, that was three.

[Ranger]

I'm an idiot.

{Almost50}
{Rhaegar}
{pisskop}
{Lowell, shotty}
{Kop}
{Autti}
{duppin}

[Ranger]

(That was five. I somehow thought Killthestory was alive.)

[Ranger]

Well in that case:
{Almost50}
{Rhaegar, Kop}
{pisskop}
{Lowell, shotty}
{Autti}
{duppin}

[Ranger]

{Almost50}
{Rhaegar, Kop}
{pisskop, Lowell}
{shotty}
{Autti}
{duppin}

Six.

[Ranger]

{Almost50, Rhaegar}
{Kop}
{pisskop, Lowell}
{shotty}
{Autti}
{duppin}

Seven.
Yes, I'm putting Rhaegar in the same tier as Almost50, deal with it. Rhaegar's

that

town.

[Ranger]

Ten. For what it's worth,
VOTE: duppin.

I know, there was already a lynch, my vote won't count.

But

symbolism

, man. It's symbolically on duppin. He's obviously scum.

[Ranger]

I take it you agree with my read?

Kinda curious why you didn't lynch him, then.

shotty in my readthrough so far (12) hasn't set off any alarm bells. He hasn't been particularly town, but he still looked vaguely more like town than scum to me.
Autti's my pick for second scum because Autti's posting--while not as bad as duppin's--sends off all the wrong sorts of vibes.

[Ranger]

{Almost50, Rhaegar, Kop}
{pisskop, Lowell}
{shotty}
{Autti}
{duppin}

I realize it's theoretically possible for Kop to be scum if there's a {pisskop, Kop} scumteam, but let's be realistic, here.
That, and me really liking 341.

[Ranger]

I also have to say shotty's posting actually gets stronger at around that point.

It wouldn't surprise me to learn you're right, that later it gets much worse, but around that same place, he's actually a townread.

[Ranger]

Almost50 [4]: SnarkySnowman, duppin, Rhaegar, Killthestory

I'd like to point out, prior to this, SnarkySnowman was at L-1.
We know he's scum, sure, but you think the wagon on Almost50 (the town counterwagon to scum) only has

one

scum on it?

It's not Rhaegar and we know it's not Killthestory, ergo, duppin is scum.

[Ranger]

594 is a fine stance to take on a scumbuddy, too, btw.

[Ranger]

Duppin argued early on that either myself or shotty is scum.

I saw that.

My thought was, more or less: "Right, duppin's scum for this, period, end of discussion. The only question is whether he was pushing two town players or pushed both a scumbuddy and a town player and chose to push the town player harder". Because if you note, he did push you harder than shotty.

[Ranger]

Killthestory [6]: drmyshottyizsik, Almost50, KainTepes, pisskop, Kop, SnarkySnowman [L-1]

This actually makes me think shotty could be scum.

Not from this specifically, but Autti was pressuring SnarkySnowman for a lynch.

And while strictly speaking, KTS was a counterwagon to Almost50, he was

also

a counter-wagon to SnarkySnowman. That suggests scum voting here as well, and aside from SS himself, that would be shotty.

I mean, we're gonna find out anyway, but it definitely makes me want duppin's blood tomorrow over Autti.

[Ranger]

683 also reads as fake.

[Ranger]

Shotty also consistently defended SnarkySnowman all game pretty much. It's throughout D1 as well, but it is manifesting in D2 as I read with posts like 720.

[Ranger]

737 is horrible both positionally-wise (calling SS scum but not voting him)

and

tonality-wise as well.

[Ranger]

Almost caught up, six pages or so to go, but pretty sure my reads aren't changing from this:
{Almost50, Rhaegar, Kop, pisskop}
{Lowell}
{Autti}
{duppin, shotty}

[Ranger]

I did a search for "shotty" in all of snarkys posts. And by that i mean everything from this site. He hasn't interacted with shotty prior to this game from what i can initially tell. The fact that he then knows about this meta is somewhat suspicious.

Actually, I know for a fact SnarkySnowman did not get it from this game, 100%, but eh, they're probably scumbuddies anyway.

Also, should be pretty obvious: Lowell was a counter-wagon to shotty. I don't necessarily think scum voted there. (I mean. Almost50 is confirmed town, then you have pisskop as well on there.) But I think it's still pretty clear Lowell's most likely town from that.

[Ranger]

I think shotty needs to get the noose today based on this.

And I think that duppin needs the noose tomorrow.

It is far more likely he places a scumbuddy in the town reads than it is he places a scumbuddy in the nulls at that stage.

And the town there? Are you (town) and me (also town), with duppin the odd man out.

[Ranger]

Any game, any time, just you give the name.

[Ranger]

Caught up.

So no fears about the hammer, all's good, you got your catchup content anyway.

I approve of the lynch.

[Ranger]

Well, Almost and Kop are both confirmed town now.

Indeed.

Also, three things should happen today.
One, if there was a N3 cop, they should claim their result. And it better be on one of {Autti, duppin}.
Two, if one of {Autti, duppin} is a doctor, they need to claim.

I have very good reasons for asking this.

Our lynch may depend on the answer. (Trust me on this.)
Three, depending on the two factors above, we lynch one of them. Most likely duppin.

[Ranger]

Senile as someone at 50 would be, I'm pretty sure Almost50 doesn't qualify as being two different people.

[Ranger]

I'm curious, what was your plan?

My plan yesterday was get caught up in the game before the mod posted the flip and to identify the scum for future reference, given as how there had already been a lynch.

My plan today? Lynch said scum.

VOTE: duppin.

We have neither a doctor claim nor an N3 cop claim, and of {duppin, Autti}, I find duppin more likely to be scum.

Conclusion: There's some good, some bad. Maybe even enough for a lynch.

Your analysis on Autti is my own! Possible town, possible scum, could be lynched.

But my read on duppin is that he's

probable

scum, only remotely-possible town, and

should

be lynched.

I'm waiting on Ranger to show up and submit her latest analysis. I know for a fact she can see through it all and could probably pinpoint the remaining scum with a final read through. I've seen her do it before.

My analysis is that, if my theory is correct, Rhaegar is 100% confirmed town. Sure, Rhaegar's town by play, but I actually think by Rhaegar's town by role, assuming my theory holds true. I would prefer not to explain why because, as pisskop says, scum benefit more from claiming (or even speculating about) roles than town does.

That means, 100%, scum are within {Autti, duppin}.

I could be wrong about which of them it is, because both of them are

similar

, but of them, I think there is a much stronger case for duppin being scum. I'm a bit busy at the moment, so I can't actually compile the case right now, but if this is something you need me to actually do rather than simply taking my word for it, I can do it later when I'm not quite as busy.

[Ranger]

Ranger how about you explain exactly why I'm scum.

Rhaegar is 100% confirmed town. Sure, Rhaegar's town by play, but I actually think by Rhaegar's town by role. That means, 100%, scum are within {Autti, duppin}. [Of] them, I think there is a much stronger case for duppin being scum.

I'm a bit busy at the moment, so I can't actually compile the case right now, but if this is something you need me to actually do rather than simply taking my word for it, I can do it later when I'm not quite as busy.

[Ranger]

I'd like to engage you when you have the time by the way.

I'm not sure what there will be to say.

Rhaegar, if I'm right, is town.
I think Rhaegar and I both know why.
I think we also know what the other is thinking.

And scum have not figured it out.

Which is why I don't support the massclaim.

I think you are scum for it, because you need those claims.

[Ranger]

Massclaiming pretty much ends the game today (if not today, then tomorrow). You simply can't deny that.

I fail to see how.

There isn't a doctor claim from you or Autti. This tells me what I needed to know.

There isn't an N3 cop claim with a result on one of you.

With the given information, I already know that {you, Autti} is guaranteed to have the scum within. As a result, there's no point in massclaiming. We lynch one of you, and if the game's not over, we lynch the other the next day. So the game's over no matter what, yes, but it then becomes a point of why we would even bother massclaiming.

[Ranger]

In other words: we gain nothing from massclaiming we do not already know.

Scum on the other hand gain plenty.

[Ranger]

You weren't asking yourself "who is the scum?" but more so "what if duppin is scum" and then tried to make a case based on that.

What.

My reads evolved as I was reading the thread. The changes in them were marked by clear event triggers, e.g. Kop and pisskop becoming more town post-claims, Lowell becoming more town when he towned it up, shotty becoming more scum. You remained at the bottom because I found you the player most likely to be aligned with SnarkySnowman, and later, also shotty.

Pisskop can be scum, and so too rhaegar.

Rhaegar can't be scum and if he is then I'll personally eat the lynch and accept the loss for being wrong here. pisskop

can

be scum, sure, but he isn't. In all practical terms, they're both town, by role, by play. Your post here is really "ew"-inducing.

To be fair I think Ranger's point is that it doesn't really matter that much if we mass claim at this point.

Not

quite

true. My point is that massclaim tells us nothing the guaranteed-town players (pisskop, Rhaegar, probably Almost50 because I think he's smart enough to figure out what I caught, and me) haven't already figured out, whereas it tells

you

information that you didn't have. And one of {you, Autti} is scum. So, scum gain info, whereas town already have that info.

Of course, if I'm wrong and any of the conftown don't understand what's going on and they request the massclaim, sure, I'll do it, but if it's just you two requesting it, the answer is plain and simply,

no

.

[Ranger]

I'm sorry Ranger, but why do you think something advanced is going on?

Because something advanced is going on. :P

The thing I have in mind

does

confirm him as town.

I know your reads were evolving, but you pinged me out really early and then you were just set on it.

And? This isn't your first game with me. You know my modus operandi. (But, will do, it'll take a bit to get to it, but it'll happen today.)

[Ranger]

You just have to keep in mind that if Autti is not the scum, you'll end up in the last three with Rhaegar and pisskop so if we lynch me today, you might want to discuss it that possibility tomorrow with the other confirmed town still alive.

Bluntly, if both {you, Autti} are town then I deserve to lose.

[Ranger]

Why the hell are we all fucking claiming?

Well, because Almost50 is trying to lynch Autti instead of duppin.

I don't see Autti's claim as town, but I also don't see it as scum; there's no strong indicator one way or another as to his alignment.

It's not 'your' game to lose. If this ends up being the case, then all of us (town) loses.

Sure, but the loss would be my fault more than anyone else's. It would also be the scum in {pisskop, Rhaegar} playing a

stellar

scumgame, yeah, and it would be the town sucking, yeah, but I would be the primary cause of the town loss, both because I'm expected to be better and because I'd have led the town to two consecutive mislynches and landed myself as the third for my stupidity.

But I'm willing to take that risk, because I find it infinitely more likely that I'm right, one of {you, Autti} as scum, with me favoring you. (That case is still coming, albeit not at the moment; I still have a couple things that are higher priority at the moment.)

Ranger, if you're going to claim you may as well say what you are.

Fine.

I'm a N5 doctor.

I know you're a doctor, too, because the last scum is going to have claimed cop.
That's because I'm absolutely convinced we're in the 6-doctor, 4-cop setup. Why else would both scum have claimed cop? If we had only five doctors, they could have claimed doctor, yet they both claimed cop. The logic behind this should be obvious enough, but I can explain further if this doesn't make sense.

[Ranger]

conversly if ranger and almost claim doc, then we KNOW for a fact that the scum is a doctor claimer, and all cops are confirmed town, as we would have 6 docs and 5 cops (impossible).

You have that backwards.

We have pisskop as one cop, Kop as a second, Lowell as a third, and then two cop claims: yours and duppin.

We have three flipped doctors, Almost50 as a confirmed fourth, and then two doc claims: Rhaegar's and mine.

One cop claim must be true.
One doctor claim must also be true.

The reason why I'm convinced Rhaegar is town, though, is because if we're in the 4:6 cop:doc setup, scum literally

could not

claim doctor. If they did, then they would eventually be outted as confscum when we had 7 doctor claims total.
In contrast, they could claim cop safely, because then we'd have 5 cop claims total, which is safe.
This would explain why both SnarkySnowman and shotty claimed cop...when claiming a result as a cop is something that is sub-optimal play from them, as shown by how Snarky's claim ended up rather decisively clearing pisskop.

[Ranger]

I don't see Autti's claim as town, but I also don't see it as scum; there's no strong indicator one way or another as to his alignment.

For the record, when it comes to duppin: his claim itself is the same, neither town nor scum.
However, how he treats the claim is scum.

He just accepts that he and Autti are both, conveniently, N5 cops.

While having two in the same night is not impossible, refer to pisskop for why I don't see town just accepting this without hesitation. He just nonchalantly takes it as a given Autti's a N5 cop. While claiming N5 cop. This is why I prefer duppin over Autti.

[Ranger]

I'm speechless. THIS is why you're GOOD. You do pay attention to details that escape us all

<3

I'll be building a duppin case shortly. This game's my top internet priority, though I have a little real-life stuff to do first.

[Ranger]

I'll actually read this.

I'll give you the highlights.

• On D1, SnarkySnowman was a scummy scumperson, was wagoned, and claimed N1 cop. This is how KTS got mislynched.
• D2, SnarkySnowman claimed a guilty on your slot, pisskop.
• Hilariously enough, as you're well aware, pisskop was an N1 cop with an innocent on Kop. The results from this were obvious.
• shotty managed to obvscum it up D3. We gained the additional information that Kop was an N2 cop, with an innocent on Almost50.
• Rhaegar has been obvtowning it up ever since D1.
• shotty claimed N4 cop, we lynched him anyway.
• D4 comes around. duppin and Autti both push for a massclaim.
• I deduced Rhaegar was a doctor. From SnarkySnowman and shotty both claiming cop, I inferred we were in the 6:4 doc:cop setup.
• This is because I, myself, am a doctor, for N5.
• It was concluded scum was within {duppin, Autti}, and we lynched duppin. It wasn't him.

So that's where we're at right now.

You're basically confirmed town. Rhaegar is basically confirmed town. I'm not

as

confirmed town, though I can argue for it if necessary. Kop

is

literally confirmed town. So, Autti is pretty much the last scum.

So, let's list the theoretical options we can do for today.

1. The lynch could be on one of {you, Rhaegar}. GOD no, for the aforementioned reasons that while you may not officially be literally-mod-confirmed town, I'm treating you both as if you are anyway.
2. We mislynch me. This will bring you to an {Autti, RadiantCowbells, Rhaegar} lylo. For obvious reasons, I'd
   prefer
   you not doing this, but so long as you lynch Autti, then I wouldn't mind too terribly much. If I'm wrong, I'll take the blame, but, really, I'm not.
3. We lynch Autti. This should win us the game. If it doesn't, then this scenario is effectively identical to the above, since I'd deserve the loss.
4. Option four is viable because of claims and math: we no lynch. I'm an N5 doctor. Autti is a claimed N5 cop. If the scum no-kill or I stop a kill, then tomorrow, we have Autti either claiming a guilty (which is an auto-win: lynch the guilty, and if Autti was lying, lynch Autti), or Autti claiming an innocent result: lynch Autti to either end the game or confirm the innocent, scum nightkill one of the two innocent results, and we go into a 3p lylo with one conftown, a 50/50 shot.

That's the best-case scenario, but it still works mathematically if scum nightkill someone. They can't hit conftown because I'd be protecting Kop. Meaning they'd have to nightkill an unconfirmed player. If they nightkill an unconfirmed player within the three Rs {Ranger, Rhaegar, Radiant}, then Autti will claim a result. If Autti claims a result on a living player, regardless of innocent or guilty, we have a 50/50: choosing between Autti and one other player.

The down side to this scenario, however, is two outcomes: if Autti claims to investigate the R player nightkilled, then we have Autti and two uncleared players, objectively a 33% chance. I'd say this is the worst-case scenario. The second is if Autti is town, and is nightkilled. Because that would leave all three Rs alive, and uncleared. Also objectively a 33% chance. This scenario, however, is basically identical to as if we had lynched Autti. I also find it the least-likely, because, well...it requires Autti being town.

Personally, I prefer scenario 3 because it's probably the fastest way to win the game. But I want your feedback.

[Ranger]

So my slot is as of now considered basically confirmed town: correct?

Effectively, yes.

The 1v1 between SnarkySnowman and pisskop, along with pisskop being one of the major pushers of shotty, makes your slot basically confirmed town. We don't have a cop innocent, but we don't need one.

If I'm already seen as near conftown and you're confident that Rhaegar is town, I'm willing to autolynch Autti if you flip town.

Basically, yes. pisskop was one of the primary pushers of both scum...but the

other

pusher, who pushed both longer and harder, was Rhaegar. (Whose posting is also obviously town without interactions.) This,

before

my speculation about Rhaegar. To see that, 1004 (first hint), 1023 (much more explicit), 1031, 1047, 1051, with the revelation in 1101, and further explained in 1102.

I'm more sure about Rhaegar being town than I am about your slot being town, and your slot could literally not be more obvtown. (Because, in addition to the interactions with scum, pisskop was obvtown on his own merits.)

So, I deserve to lose if either of these reads is wrong.

[Ranger]

Though, I

am

wondering why you're lynching me first.

That's backwards from the RC I know.

[Ranger]

Well that's funny because the reason I did it was to see if you'd selfvote, because that's what I expected from the Ranger I know.

I don't have a vengekill this game, RC. Both my self-votes were done with the explicit foreknowledge I would have an influence on the game no matter what. (Especially in longnight!) They also accomplished something by inherent nature of the self-vote. My shortnight self-vote helped set up the endgame I preferred. (Albeit a miscalculation on my part.) My longnight self-vote was a gambit, and while I didn't get the endgame setup I preferred because my gambit failed (with

three

setbacks), the intention of doing so was there. In both instances, I was under the impression every bit of productive discussion with the current gamestate had been made, so I needed to do something to change it: the self-vote.

Here, there is productive discussion to be had. I'm not voting Autti, either, and Autti's basically 99.99% scum at this point.

[Ranger]

Which is why we're probably lynching Autti today, but I want to hear from everyone first. We've been the only two people to speak so far today.

[Ranger]

Right, so at this point, just waiting on Rhaegar to check in.

[Ranger]

Well, we do have the time to spare.

Just make sure we don't need any other replacements (aside from maybe Rhaegar but hopefully not), and we can take as long as we need.

It wouldn't be the end of the world if we ended today in a deadline-induced no-lynch (unlikely as that would be), and that's very unlikely to happen since we're all around and able to vote where needed to have a lynch go through anyway. So, we can afford to take some time, since we've got breathing room a plenty.

[Ranger]

Aren't we all.

[Ranger]

Brings back memories of Blitz 21.

[Ranger]

Last day.

We all knew Expedience was scum, we were just...kinda...waiting for it to be over.

[Ranger]

If both RC and you are alright with it, yes.

VOTE: Autti.

[Ranger]

Well then.
UNVOTE: Autti.

[Ranger]

1135 contains all the claims: Andrius/Rhaegar as N1 doctor, Almost50 as N4 doctor, me as N5 doctor, RC/pisskop as N1 cop with an innocent on Kop, Kop as N2 cop with an innocent on Almost50, duppin as N5 cop, and Autti as N5 cop.

So, basically, yeah, we're effectively in lynch-Autti mode.

[Ranger]

I have no special reason to desire being the hammer vote.

VOTE: Autti.

Whoever wants to can do the honors.

[Ranger]

<3

[Ranger]

Nah, we just won pretty sure.

[Ranger]

Pinkie promise. <3

[Ranger]

Where

is

our mod, anyway? :S

[Ranger]

this sorta feels like scum in a bad way </3

Meh. There's like a 99% chance that once MaxwellPuckett actually checks in on this game, it's game over so no fear there.

I kinda just want the game to be done with.

And if for some ungodly reason Autti isn't scum, I already agreed to auto-eat the lynch tomorrow anyway.

[Ranger]

You want the 1% chance where Autti is town version or the

actual

version?

[Ranger]

Well that'd be the actual version then.
Town.

[Ranger]

^That sounds like a pretty official unofficial game over post to me.

Wish there was some sort of celebration we could do in the mean time, but I'm actually planning on going to bed. :(

Ah, well.

Will be here morning to read the results.

[Ranger]

Kop being here is unexpected.

Well I'm a N5 doctor, last night was N5, and I was protecting him, so...if you had shot him, we'd be in 4p mylo rather than 3p lylo.

VOTE: Andrius.

That's mostly a formality, given at this point, I've basically accepted we're going to lose.

If Kop is willing to actually listen to what I say, I can try making a case, but if he's 100% set on lynching me with no doubt in his mind, I'd rather he not waste my time.

[Ranger]

Well honestly, I'm not sure where to begin.

I guess we can start with today and work from there. Namely,

Kop being here is unexpected. I have class this evening, but will re-read tonight/tomorrow and have words sometime tomorrow. Will give due diligence as I screwed up the last LyLo I was in by not re-evaluating the "confirmed" town. Darn Mafia Doctors not having guns.

This is attempting to throw shade onto your slot, to see if there's any possible wiggle room for potentially mislynching you.

There's also the RadiantCowbells kill. For a start: it's tactically stupid for me to make for two reasons. First, numbers-wise. I could claim to have protected RadiantCowbells and killed you, or if I thought that was too risky, I could simply no-kill and claim to have protected you, forcing a mylo where there are three possible lynches (a 66/33 odds scum favor) rather than two (50/50). Second,

ftr: if this flips town and I die: I want ranger lynched based on my 0 thread reading.

After he said this, I wouldn't nightkill him. He would have read the thread and seen I was town, and with his updated opinion, probably turned the tables onto Andrius. (It'd have been Space Invaders all over again: him trying to convince me he's not scum, and eventually succeeding.)

On the other hand, Andrius seeing this can just kill RadiantCowbells, and if you yourself don't point it out, then he can do it for you.

[Ranger]

Going back to yesterday, there was also my attitude I suppose.

I was very clear. I thought lynching Autti would end the game. I'll leave reading them to you, since you're the one making the judgment, but in all of them, the sincerity in my belief the game was over should show.

I also said that if I was wrong, I would be mislynched and you could blame the loss on me. That's not something I say lightly. (I do mean it still, for what it's worth. Obviously, the hope would be you get it right, but if you vote me, it's still 100% my fault, not yours.)

For Andrius, you get more neutral language: 1171, especially 1170

Yep that's the gem. Anything else need be said? I'm prepared to vote Autti.

And then you get 1166, specifically, this:

namely if we're just going to steam through Autti.

Plus, there was his stance:

So Kop and RC are confirmed town from where I am.

RC was not confirmed town. He was assumed town, like Andrius was assumed town, but he was not confirmed town. Yet if Andrius truly thought RC was confirmed town, then that would mean he had reason to nightkill RC.

[Ranger]

^By neutral language, what I mean is: Andrius's stance was very careful. He said we were going to plow through Autti. He did not attribute any further meaning to this.

The contrast is that I did; I was unambiguously saying the game would end with an Autti lynch. I was willing to take a hard stance, one that was ultimately wrong, even though being wrong is something that makes me look a lot worse; he was not taking a hard stance, so he wasn't clearly wrong, so he doesn't look a lot worse from the flip because he never committed to it the same way I did.

[Ranger]

This is probably not a point I should be making, but I'd like to add:
Autti probably needed to be replaced, yet as town, was not;
Rhaegar needed to be replaced, and was replaced.

The disparity between the two may have been thanks to alignment differences, that being, Rhaegar was the last scum whereas Autti was just one more town.

[Ranger]

On previous days' notes:

No, we Lynch duppin first. And then we think carefully about our next step if he doesn't flip scum.

This in hindsight was setup for duppin's town-flip.

Playing defensive, it would be incredibly bold scum play to make claims like the ones I was making in 1102, 1101, and the setup on prior posts.

[Ranger]

1079 also in hindsight feels like it is writing in new motivation to past actions, in this case, saving SnarkySnowman for one day, and claiming the reason was for the claim.

It's also a convenient claim to make. Claiming N4 doctor would be a risk because of Almost50 being an N4 doctor; claiming N5 doctor not only runs the risk of a counter-claim (because that's my role), but also the risk of running into complications where he would be forced to keep someone alive.

[Ranger]

1073 was also a back-track.

All-in-all, it also feels like Rhaegar had picked up on what I was expecting scum to do (that is, I was expecting scum to claim cop), and had also picked up on the assumption I had made (that is, I was expecting a 4:6 setup when we now know 100% it's a 5:5), running with it to make the claim I was

expecting

to hear.

[Ranger]

1068 was an additional attempt to get extra information before he would need to claim.

By chance, I was not logged in at the time, and he was pressured into claiming first, but he wanted me to claim before him. (In contrast, thanks to my reading style when catching up, I did not know he had claimed when I claimed; I learned that only after the claim.)

[Ranger]

Bussing shotty would be a fairly logical decision. It would have been much harder to defend him given the likelyhood he would have been investigated or lynched.

And you treated snarky with kid gloves up until the claim. It was pretty obvious that he almost certainly would be the day two Lynch, so scum wouldn't be losing much by bussing him either.

Guess who was on both lynches? This sounds an awful lot like Rhaegar explaining why he was on both scum.

Speaking of which: I would not have killed Lowell. At that point, you (Kop) and Almost50 were both 100% absolutely confirmed town. My modus operandi as scum has been killing confirmed town players first, and Lowell was not confirmed town.

[Ranger]

There's also my read progression on day three: when I came into the game, shotty had already been lynched. (Well, by the time I had posted, anyway.)

As scum, what I could have done is silently lurked it out, reading the thread and waiting for the mod to lock it, obtaining the necessary information to know who was what. This would have garnered no suspicion. Instead, I read the entire thread and gave my reads. My read on shotty also evolved: I started out with him middle of the road, but by 972, actually townread him. (Speaking of posting around there: 976 assumed duppin was scum because I assumed Rhaegar wasn't. The analysis still holds, except now we know duppin is town.) By 986, he was back to maybe scum, and by 992 he was a stronger scumread. In essence: my read on him clearly evolved as the thread continued.

And speaking of my reads: Rhaegar was my strongest townread. I have also, until today, been pushing the theory of a 4:6 cop:doc setup. I already said as scum that I would have either killed you (Kop) or no-killed. But were I to kill an unconfirmed player, it would have been the Rhaegar slot (Andrius), not the pisskop slot (RadiantCowbells), because killing the Rhaegar slot would "back" my theory up, and he was my strongest townread making it a little awkward to push.

This lasted even into yesterday when it was RC; 1189 contained an implication. RC asked me what I thought about him. What I thought was, "Because Autti is scum, he is town." But prior to that, I had asked whether he wanted my actual thoughts (which that post was), or hypothetical thoughts...implying there was a difference. That difference is because if you had asked me yesterday to choose between {RadiantCowbells, Andrius} for a scum, I'd have selected RadiantCowbells as the scum thanks to that strong Rhaegar townread off of both play and role.

[Ranger]

@Rhaegar 132 does this seem not genuine to you?

In hindsight, this is a pretty scum-scum interaction.

Town {Rhaegar, KainTepes, duppin}

For the record.

I pointed out how SnarkySnowman likely had a scumbuddy up here.

I was sure it was duppin at the time.

It doesn't exactly do me any good

now

, considering KainTepes is my slot, but at least I can say I was right to make that call?

[Ranger]

273 looks like scum interacting with their scumbuddy.

794, 802, and 804 as well.

I need to look at Rhaegar's iso, since looking at shotty's reminds me how heavily Rhaegar defended shotty, but thought I'd bring these up first. 914 in particular reads as shotty addressing his scumbuddy and asking if there's anything he can do to get them off.

[Ranger]

KainTepes, my slot, for what it's worth, was one of the first early pushers of shotty being scum. As early as 52 in fact. It's a bit difficult to get a read on his slot without a cop shot given his, ah...

unique

...posting style, but 384 showed his more town self, 386 and 394 continuing it. He didn't just leave it there without a vote, either; he followed through in 412. He continued the reaction test, which was a fairly town thing to try and I've seen it from him as town before but not from him as scum. 492 is an offer that he would never make as scum: he actually offered to be the D1 lynch, without reason. (This, by the way, is probably thanks to his stance on being an N5 doctor: he's a doctor, not a cop, not an investigative, so the role is "boring". It is also late game. So, his death would not be an issue.)

[Ranger]

109 from Rhaegar may have been jumping on the growing interest for SnarkySnowman, but it also defended fairly heavily shotty. 113 continues it. In 115, the first signs of an inconsistency appear from Rhaegar: he says he likes Lowell's post, but disagrees with the shotty read. That by itself isn't bad, but it grows: in 122, in spite of the hard-shotty defense he has been making the whole time, he lists shotty as null. This is where the real problem is. Why was he putting so much time and effort into defending a null read? 135 continues this shotty defense.

I'm basing them on shotty being an easy lynch, and therefor a target for scum. I have not doubt that if shotty did happen to be scum (25 percent chance) that a partner or two would bus the hell out of him. Shotty is a bad player. Lazy townies and devious scum are the people going after him. I'm not trying to say I have a read on him either way, I'm just saying that his wagon is one where scum would likely congregate regardless of his alignment.

This reads like him already knowing SnarkySnowman had a minor shotty bus. The usage of the term "bad player" also sets shotty up to be a less-appealing lynch.

In 266, he again defends shotty while trying to keep shotty from being a townread. 269 is further revising the story. 270 continues to try and distance from the defense, while still maintaining it. 280 reads as him going, "I'm bussing SnarkySnowman, because he decided to make an awful bus on shotty". 290 reads as a scum-scum interaction. 294 is a

huge

contradiction from Rhaegar: he says that he believes in reading players off of their playstyle, and yet, he insists this whole time not to wagon shotty, not to lynch him, in spite of a NULL read there.

390 reads as coaching SnarkySnowman. Then we get another huge contradiction. 449 is a fine stance, right? No claim SnarkySnowman can make will justify not lynching him. Except...in 459, he back-tracks on this and says that the one thing SnarkySnowman happened to conveniently claim was the one thing he was willing to let slide. 478 is a post that should imply a SnarkySnowman vote, yet none materialized. 482 is in hindsight a blatant fence-sit on the issue, again while unvoting, buying SnarkySnowman further time.

551 is saying duppin's stances were bad. What was duppin pushing? {Almost50, shotty}. Now note what Rhaegar's very next post, 556, is doing: voting Almost50. This not only shows a contradiction, but yet again once more shows Rhaegar defending shotty indirectly. Note that, on day two, Rhaegar did not immediately take pisskop's side, like basically everyone else. He waited, with posts like 726 (note he also waited on the end of D1 before hammering).

In the next day, 763 comes only after shotty has been wagoned. At this stage, it was clear no matter what, shotty was getting lynched. 790 in particular is Rhaegar testing the waters: he doesn't want to lynch his scumbuddy, but he's willing to blend into the town who are. 799 is coaching. 803 is even more coaching. 805 as well: encouraging him to claim and do those things. 857 displays a willingness to join both wagons, on shotty OR Lowell, showing that if Lowell had gained more support, Rhaegar would have switched.

There's various more over that day, but I think the point's been made.

[Ranger]

I'm sorry I can't make the decision any easier on you, Kop. This is the best I've got. :/

[Ranger]

What this tells me about you is that you're going to grasp for straws here.

Yes, I am.

I was expecting the game to end with Autti's lynch.

I was expecting last night would either end with no death or your death.

I was expecting RadiantCowbells being scum and winning

another

scum game.

I was not expecting him to be the nightkill; I was not expecting you to be scum. So, by definition. Everything I say in regards to you being scum is going to be grasping at straws. I know you're scum now because Kop is confirmed town. But that's literally the only reason I know you're scum.

However, your response is dodging my point. And I can show it in your response, too.

Nothing's been decided. You could swing, I could swing.

This is true. Yet, you were also casting shade on Kop.

That

was my point. You were trying to cast doubt on a player who is literally confirmed town. You're displaying the very behavior that you're trying to write onto me: you knew what you were going to do. Ironically enough, I myself set it up for you. I literally said I was going to get lynched today, so you could earn cheap attempts at town credit by not instant-voting me, and by casting suspicion on Kop, open up the chance we'd go after one another.

RC clearly indicated he suspected you most, and wanted you dead should the game have gone on.

And that's where you're wrong.
Andrius has displayed he doesn't understand Radiant right here and now.
But Kop?
I ask you: how much experience do you have with RadiantCowbells? Because if you have even close to the amount of experience I have with RC...then you know what he'd do.
I know that he'd reevaluate because this is not the first lylo I've had with RadiantCowbells before.

Space Invaders shows what he does in lylo.
He analyzes.
Reanalyzes.
Doubts himself.
Reassures himself.
Pushes.
Changes his mind.
Gets swayed back.
All over the course of days where the entire time, he is trying to figure things out.

The absolute

last

thing RadiantCowbells would do is vote for me in lylo.
Andrius didn't know this.
But RC would, I do, and if you've played with him enough, you should too.

You said you'd eat the lynch today, and you're not willing to do it.

Well eating the lynch in

lylo

would be against my wincon, so, yes, I'm not going to self-vote in lylo. What that mostly means is that I'm willing to take the blame for a mislynch on me. After Autti flipped town, I was expecting to be mislynched. I still am expecting it. I'm expecting to lose. I'm also expecting blame to be placed on Kop for being wrong, but that's where the statement comes in. I've already said I take full responsibility for it.

This practice is expressly forbidden.

You're bringing up a site rule but not one relevant to my point.
My point wasn't "Andrius's slot and Autti's slot both needed replacement at the same time, Andrius's got replaced whereas Autti's did not".
My point was that your slot needed replacement, and got one.
Autti's slot, later also needed replacement, yet never got one. As you yourself said,

Autti was never formally up for replacement IIRC.

This is the entire point. Autti was never formally up for replacement but was town. Your slot...was.

Suddenly its scummy to lynch scum?

To lynch scum in the manner which Rhaegar did?

Yes.

Bussing SnarkySnowman, but when SnarkySnowman gave an opening, letting him live. When SnarkySnowman was outed as scum, waiting for consensus to form before lynching him. Not instantly going after shotty. Waiting for consensus to form. Only when it was clear shotty was being lynched, placing a vote there. Rhaegar stalled the lynches on both scum for as long as humanly possible, and then when they proved inevitable, hopped on for cheap town credit.

Worthwhile to note that you will find both Kop and my slot on both of the scum lynches, which are denoted by QUOTE tags for ease of access.
Ranger's slot is missing from both.

Because KainTepes never made a post D2. Or D3. That's because KainTepes was already siteflaked, ergo, was not in the game. This is another point in my

favor

. I could not have contributed to a scum lynch, because both scum were lynched when my slot was out of the game. (By the time I came in, shotty was already hammered.)

In other words: my slot not being on either lynch is a technically true fact. It is also a fact which cannot, absolutely 100% CANNOT, be alignment indicative, because the slot wasn't in the game at all.

[Ranger]

Hi all, sorry I need to do this, but: I'm going to a special even early tomorrow.

I spent today running errands preparing for that event tomorrow. I didn't declare V/LA because I did not anticipate it taking all day.

...It did.

So, my apologies, but I need to do a one-time prod-dodge for today only. I'll be back tomorrow night.

Not that this specific game is waiting on me; we're mostly waiting on Kop.

[Ranger]

Scum, why couldn't you have killed me over RC.

Well because I was obviously protecting you.

I mean.

In hindsight, RC could've been a valid protect. He wasn't conftown, but he was fairly town. He was the person Andrius had more motive to kill off of what limited reading Andrius had done. He is nightkill bait and dies early and often from them. But...the objectively-correct play was to protect the 100% confirmed town player rather than the 99%-likely player, especially when said player was your guess for being the last scum when Autti flipped.

[Ranger]

Daily post even though I have nothing to add.

Kop?

[Ranger]

You made the right call, Kop. <3

[Ranger]

Eh, they'll get here soon enough.

Can't wait to read the mafia and dead PTs to see what they're like.

[Ranger]

Well, we'll win as soon as the mod comes here.
Did you shoot them a message?

[Ranger]

Well, a hammer happened, so worst case, we contact a listmod for the final lynch. (And PTs?) I did send a PM to MaxwellPuckett, so hopefully we can get something soonish.

[Ranger]

<3

Is there any way that you can release the mafia/dead PTs?

I gave you lots of love when plotting to murder you all. <3

[Ranger]

I'm so, so sorry.

You all deserved to win

so

much.
My team did not deserve to win at all.
You had three confirmed town. (Well, two, but pisskop/RC was close enough.)
You had another obvtown. (Well, two, but I immediately killed Lowell.)
You had

three

cops (well, two minus Lowell), and an unaccounted for doctor.
The town played a ridiculously strong game.

And I wasn't even aiming for the win at any point! I was convinced the final day was guaranteed to end in my lynch. (RC was killed because he's retiring and I'll never get the chance to kill him again, not for any strategic reason.)

I guess I earned it, but I still feel awful about the deception. :(

[Ranger]

there's no way I didn't lynch you.

I figured this!

I also figured there was no way Kop didn't lynch me though.

[Ranger]

Kop didn't reread and isn't the sort of player who would have thought about this long enough to realize that you were obviously scum.

I wouldn't blame him. I think he

did

reread, but was conflicted. Maybe he could have waited longer, but if he made any mistake at all, it would be not asking more questions...and even on that front, if he didn't think the answers would change anything, I can understand the hammer.

the lynch on me pissed me off

I wasn't in the game at the time, but if it makes you feel better: it was incredibly scum-driven! As in, literally all three scum were on the wagon, as a counter to SnarkySnowman. Your lynch did help lead to the lynch of two scum I feel, so it helped expose them! Very easily could have exposed me, too.

[Ranger]

Still don't understand how I got lynched though.

Bad luck, really: you and Autti both had a N5 cop claim.
You were both correctly claiming, but it looked like one of you was likely scum fakeclaiming.

[Ranger]

Otherwise, town definitely deserved the win and because of autti and rhaegar basically being absent this game was lost.

I wouldn't blame Autti. Autti was in a situation where he was basically giving up, and had good reason to: the case for him being the last scum was good, and he thought I was getting lynched the next day. (So did I!) Rhaegar apparently site flaked, but was VERY obviously town, and as you noted, Andrius did well in the slot.