Mini 1794: Gunslingers Ahoy! {Game Over}

[chilledtea]

Well, I have caught up. Good thing there were no wall posts.

I would like official vote count, thanks mod!

FOS : BlackStar

till that time.

Between murder and black, I would lynch black today. He has been overly defensive and I didn't like his switch from murder to dunn to murder. Feels like deflection.

I am not sure why transcend feels good about chumba because chumba hasn't really done anything other than say that pre-flip associations are bad. Chumba is null.

Like TBG and accountant for town.

Dunn is null.

Regarding murder, we played together in a newbie and he was very scummy, everyone scum read him till day 3. He was town there though. If he is town here it should be easier to read him later on.

I would also say that active lurking argument against chumba is a bit silly since the game just started. Pretty sure there are people who haven't yet completely caught up with the game.

[chilledtea]

Dunn is null.

You'll have to explain this, because I've actually had quite a bit of interaction in the thread to read me off of

Wondering why TBG seems to have skimmed over me as well

Anyway I agree that chumba is definitely null at this point, I think the people saying he's town/mafia are silly/have bad reads/making things up and I'm leaning towards the first two

It is null because I don't see anything AI in your posts. More interaction doesn't mean that you are town/scum.

Pedit : His signal-to-noise ratio might be poor because the game just started, is what I wanted to say. The game is giving a false impression of where we are in day 1 because of the no of posts - the game has just started, even if we have 250+ posts by now.

[chilledtea]

Also, hey chilled, did you get a haircut or something? I almost didn't recognize you.

Hehe. Yep it's a new avatar.

Is it nice?

[chilledtea]

very

lol I hope that's not sarcasm.

[chilledtea]

Guys, my internet had some issues. I haven't read anything from page 12 so I will need time to catch up again.

[chilledtea]

I don't see how the number of posts in the thread has anything to do with it. His amount of content compared to the others was poor when the thread had 4 pages. If you pretend that we've had no more than 4 pages, and look purely at pages 2, 3, and 4, (i.e. all of chumba's posts) and look at how much real content he has compared to dunn/accountant/mcat, he just doesn't stack up.

It's not that he hasn't given enough content. It's that he was

here and posting

and yet didn't create much of any.

A lot of people hadn't even posted though so comparing signal to noise ratio at that point is a bit silly.
Being here and posting doesn't mean that much, especially during rvs.


I am catching up now and I will be replying to any concerns (which I am seeing there are some) as I read them. If I am unable to catchup to everything then I will continue them at a later date.

[chilledtea]

Also, again, my main point is that he voted mcat with the only stated reasoning being "wagons are fun", proceeded to make null points, and only actually indicated any real suspicion of mcat 2 pages later when the wagon was clearly going.

I just considered that as rvs, if I remember correctly. A lot of people theorize that wagons help a lot during rvs.

[chilledtea]

Chilledtea I want a thorough reads list with thoughts on each player now please. You've been contributing next to nothing and I want to hear from you.

To add onto this: I would like to see one now, from where you are time traveling, and then another one once you're fully up to date.

You want a reads list from where I am now?

I have already said that you and acc are town leans though, with black as scum lean and dunn, chumba as null. I said this in my first post. It hasn't changed.

[chilledtea]

TBG was convincing.

chilledtea why are you fluffing?

No reason. Actually I wouldn't have responded to this at all but I see that a lot of people later on have considered this to be something important. You should ignore posts which are irrelevant to the game.

[chilledtea]

Just caught up. Chilledtea is like not even trying to figure out the game.

This reminds me of my last game where the last remaining scum told me I was bad at scumhunting. After the game ended he retracted it.

[chilledtea]

I am not sure why transcend feels good about chumba because chumba hasn't really done anything other than say that pre-flip associations are bad. Chumba is null.

I also pushed on a scum read and showed how what murdercat was saying in post 54 wasn't true. Why did you ignore those?

That is one post, though.If I read correctly it was the post where you point out accountant adding in a second reason. I thought it was kind of obvious so I didn't think much of it.

Regarding murder, we played together in a newbie and he was very scummy, everyone scum read him till day 3. He was town there though. If he is town here it should be easier to read him later on.

I'll check out that game to see if I can get a feel for his play style. Do you think his play this game is different or similar or too early to tell?

[Game link : ]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=65862

Too early to tell, if anything it might be similar. I don't believe in using meta for alignment tells though - at best it might help you know if someone is scummy as town. Which doesn't reallly say anything about how they play as scum.

Side note- re: 275: I don't think brawl read the link he posted cause if he did he would certainly not say I match any of those examples and a "signal to noise ratio" of 5 game related to 3 non game related is pretty good. And that's all I'm going to say about this "active lurking" stuff. Obviously I wasn't and wasting any more time is distracting me from finding his partners.

Signal to noise ration early game is always low so I didn't think much of his accusation. Still think he is town though.

[chilledtea]

I mentioned the number of votes on him because there hasn't been a vote count since top of page 2

Despite me voting murdercat it's not like I ever intended him to be lynched within 12 hours of the game starting. I also left a slot open so other people had a chance to vote him when they got here but that didn't really take off

By the way that's yesterday for me

Chumba I think you're tunneled on the guy who called you scummy but I'm not thinking he's mafia myself

It doesn't really matter that he's calling me scummy, he's saying things that just aren't true and if they were directed at somebody else I'd still call him out. Please don't discount my push on him as some sort of omgus because I assure you it's not. I've analyzed his posts and can't really see town motivation for them.

They can be untrue and coming from town though

I'm not really seeing scum motivation

They can be. Town can be wrong. Can make wrong observations and actually, they do make wrong observations all the time.

[chilledtea]

Regarding murder, we played together in a newbie and he was very scummy, everyone scum read him till day 3. He was town there though. If he is town here it should be easier to read him later on.

While that's nice and all, do you have an actual read on him? I don't really like this.

Null read on him.

What do you not like about "this" anyways?

[chilledtea]

@BlackStar:

What happened to your scumread on Dunnstral?

He admitted that he was wrong and then he took a step back and changed his read on me. I'm town and I was close to being lynch so if he was scum it would've been easier for him to just let me die.

1) You are not town.

2) You are not close to being lynched.

3) While it is true that if dunn was scum it could have been easier for him to just let you die, he would also be held responsible for his vote and scum always have this fear. You do not, however consider this and I think this is probably because you are scum yourself.

[chilledtea]

L-3 is nowhere near close to being lynched.

[chilledtea]

Well, I was in the process of catching up and the site went down.

I will catch up now. I will be time travelling as TBG put it.

[chilledtea]

I second the feeling on Chilled. I don't feel good about him either. I think it's how strong his second post is in terms of reads but how little he does with it. He doesn't really pressure anyone with it. He weakly FoSes BlackStar but doesn't commit with a vote, and he was around long enough to banter about his avatar a page later but didn't help the discussion as much as I feel like he ought to. Like dunn, it's a weak read because it's based off 4 posts, but my gut's behind it.

This post was bad.

I FoS'd BS because I wasn't sure where he was on the wagon. There was no votecount and I didn't have the time back then to go vote counting, which is generally what I do when I vote someone. I would still wait for the official vote count before I vote though. I would have thought this bit to be obvious though looking at the fact that BS had several votes on him already.

Also, it wasn't a banter about avatar. Two or three posts of one line conversations which can and should be ignored by others being used as a scum tell is bad. Also started by MC actually.

[chilledtea]

excuse me, what? Can you clarify this?

Clarify it how? Cases are scummy (quite a few people on this site think so and even one player believes it so much he has it as his title under his avatar)

Disagree that cases are scummy. First time I am actually hearing this actually.

The only thing that can be considered as scummy is if a case is made in an attempt to frame someone - that is if there are lies or misrepping involved in the case.

[chilledtea]

I don't care how many people on the site think so. I would like to hear your reasoning for cases being scummy. This is significant to me, because I tend to make a lot of cases when I want to lynch someon.

They are scummy because imo 1. they are a waste of time. You have to stop what you are doing and find all the reasons you have already given and put them into one post. That's time taking away from interacting with people and scum hunting. 2. Typically the cases are biased because you end up looking at every single
Post a player makes as scummy even though sometimes they aren't.

OK this actually makes sense.

Cases can still be useful though.

[chilledtea]

If you're actually Town don't be a goddamn anchor and let some Scum/Derptown hammer you. Ever. if you're going to go down, you go down.

Man up and try to be helpful before you do so that you might actually win the game later.

That's what I'm doing. When I get hammered and flip, you can look at everyone's reasons for joining my wagon. Murdercat, Zefiend and accountant seem the most suspicious

Where did your scumread of mine go? I haven't done anything in the time period from where you poise your suspicion on me and from what I gather neither has zefiend? Accountant and murdercat (from your scum list) are the only ones who were posting in that time frame.

[chilledtea]

If you're actually Town don't be a goddamn anchor and let some Scum/Derptown hammer you. Ever. if you're going to go down, you go down.

Man up and try to be helpful before you do so that you might actually win the game later.

That's what I'm doing. When I get hammered and flip, you can look at everyone's reasons for joining my wagon. Murdercat, zefiend and accountant seem the most suspicious

meant transcend, not zefiend

How do you mess up something like that?

[chilledtea]

Well you did say I am not even trying to figure out the game. I correlated that with a scum read.

[chilledtea]

So I am at that point of the thread where derek enters with his read lists and I feel he is town. I was sceptical of him because of his coasting, and while he is scum reading me his interaction with transcend doesn't seem to come from scum.

Also like dunn pointing out transcend's derek town read.

[chilledtea]

I voted chilledtea because this is what I'm kind of feeling right now until I get convinced otherwise and I assumed other people would hop on the wagon as they've also kind of threw chilled in the scum pile, but I noticed

almost slight resistance to putting chilledtea on the wagon,

not from anyone in particular just in general

Interesting. I haven't really noticed that, but I guess you have a point seeing as how nobody is voting him even though most of us say we think he's suspicious

VOTE: chilledtea

If you weren't scum reading me, then why did you vote me here?

[chilledtea]

I voted chilledtea because this is what I'm kind of feeling right now until I get convinced otherwise and I assumed other people would hop on the wagon as they've also kind of threw chilled in the scum pile, but I noticed

almost slight resistance to putting chilledtea on the wagon,

not from anyone in particular just in general

Interesting. I haven't really noticed that, but I guess you have a point seeing as how nobody is voting him even though most of us say we think he's suspicious

VOTE: chilledtea

If you weren't scum reading me, then why did you vote me here?

This post is literally 100 posts after the first one you posted. Your questions are getting more and more pointless.

It isn't pointless because I had no activity between those two points. You reads developed on me conveniently as derek and transcend came into the picture with their reads.

So yes, it isn't pointless.

[chilledtea]

I think BlackStar isn't consistent about his reads and pushes because he doesn't care who dies as long as it's not him.

I have to say that this is exactly how I feel about blackstar at this point of reading.

He said that his point of view on me changed when people came in with cases. But there was no case. Derek basically said that my entrance was bad and fluff was bad, which was already mentioned by accountant a long time back. Transcend, I don't even remember what was transcend's case on me. Actually I just checked his ISO, he has no case on me. TBG said something about feeling bad about my post and that was it.

Blackstar later on retracts his vote on me referencing how he wanted to "pressure" me into participation or something along those lines. Which contradicts with what he said about him scum reading me because of cases.

[chilledtea]

@braw can you quote some stuff from transcend that you found scummy?

There's not really one post I can point to and call scummy. It's more of an overall pattern of posts that I dislike. Hence, I'll just leave his ISO here.

It mainly comes down to these things.

1) How he doesn't push Accoutant. He lists Accountant as his #1 scum read at time when there's no wagon with more than a vote, and other people have indicated suspicion of him, but does actually nothing to pressure him or try to convince anyone to vote him. If he were Town, this is a perfect opportunity to get his preferred lynch candidate's wagon going. If he's Scum, I can see him being too spooked to lead a wagon he knows is a ML, since he's new and hasn't played Scum before, preferring to just drive-by vote a seemingly good candidate and wait for someone else to lead.

2) Before Accountant, his BlackStar vote is awful. His justification is "BlackStar has been very bad and has made a few scummy votes and a few potentially forced lines.", which is one of the most incredibly vague statements I've heard in this game. It leaves him so incredibly open to just wait and see what the Town agrees with and then parrot it back to look townie. I asked him specifically to explain this and a few others circa #250 and he still has not done so.

3) In a more general sense, I don't like how he posts a reads list with only one sentence justification on each player, says he can go into more detail, is asked to go into more detail, and doesn't. It reads as Scum trying to look helpful without being helpful.

4) The general fluffiness of his posts is pretty bad. They're mostly one-sentence filler that don't involve actual scumhunting.

tl;dr I think Transcend is playing the way he would if this were his first Scum game ever. Really passive, safe play attempting to stay out of the spotlight with little content, by avoiding leading or scumhunting.

Since you have specifically asked for everyone's opinion :

I am not 100% sure about transcend because your points are valid but it is also the case that the server went down right about that time when transcend voted accountant, and transcend also said he had some wifi problems or something.

These can be excuses but he is getting replaced. I think we can wait and see regarding his slot, but I agree with dunn in his read of derek being strange.

[chilledtea]

About chilled:

The fluff is null because I started it (and is generally null anyway).

However he won't take a firm stance on me, which I think is a bit strange because we just got out of a game together and I've posted plenty.

He also has said he's catching up, but then hasn't really done anything. I can kind of give him a break for that because I'm not super engaged in this game either, but I feel like he would just come out and say that if it were true.

Meta is bad. But, it is also something that is stopping me from having a strong stance on you.

Because where I stand I have nothing to indicate to me that you are town. I am taking my time with you tbh and I feel that if you are town/scum then I would get a better read on you as the game progresses.

I see that you want me to catch up, but you can ask me questions now, I am practically caught up pretty much. There are 5 pages or so.

[chilledtea]

Page 31

excuse me, what? Can you clarify this?

Clarify it how? Cases are scummy (quite a few people on this site think so and even one player believes it so much he has it as his title under his avatar)

Disagree that cases are scummy. First time I am actually hearing this actually.

The only thing that can be considered as scummy is if a case is made in an attempt to frame someone - that is if there are lies or misrepping involved in the case.

Why are you contributing so little? Serious question: I've played with you before and you were vocal. Need a reason please.

Thanks for providing proof that meta is basically useless, especially for things like activity.

The game hasn't played out in the way games play normally. Most games don't have 44 pages on day 1. The game started out with a huge burst of activity within 5 or so hours and I am giving you the benefit of the doubt here since you are a replacement, you probably don't realize this. When I first opened this thread it was standing at 7 or 8 pages with an argument going on where there was no scope for me to input anything coherent.

This is why I am mostly catching up with this thread, and it is also the case for a lot of other people.

[chilledtea]

KAAG catchup = town lean on him.

Disagree with this. KAAG's catchup is very similar to when he was scum when we played together. It is at best NAI.

[chilledtea]

Regarding murder, we played together in a newbie and he was very scummy, everyone scum read him till day 3. He was town there though. If he is town here it should be easier to read him later on.

While that's nice and all, do you have an actual read on him? I don't really like this.

Null read on him.

What do you not like about "this" anyways?

Missed this before. Mostly the lack of a stance on MURDERCAT despite having experience with him previously.

Actually, it is the lack of stance because of having experience with him.

[chilledtea]

VOTE : Murdercat

[chilledtea]

I have completed my catchup.

That vote isn't moving until you do whatever it is you wanted to do after my catchup.

[chilledtea]

Chilled, I guess what I'm having trouble with is that in our last game you lead town (even before you were confirmed) and in this game you have a very go with the flow feeling. I realize you are catching up, but in your first post you say Black is scum, you don't take a stance on me, and say Accountant and TBG are lean town. These are pretty generic reads that represent the overall game state. You then go through the whole game and only really poke at BS some more, continue to not really take stances anywhere, and defend posts directed at you. Even without meta, it looks like you are coasting. So yeah, an updated reads list would be nice and if you could explain what about KAAG's catchup didn't look good to you that would be great too, because I thought it was fine.

Have you played with KAAG?

He catches up like that regardless of alignment. There was not much in there that you could say was "wrong" but it sure wasn't indicative of anything. Also his observations, especially on me felt a bit off.

Also black is scum. Not my fault others have said this before, that is not going with the flow. It is what I feel. His reactions to pushes from anyone didn't feel like coming from town to me.

It definitely felt like he was ok with any lynch as long as it's not him. I also do not consider self-votes as something that comes from town and frankly, such a suggestion is ridiculous. Self-votes very rarely come from town - town has no reason to self-vote. Also considering the fact that the self-vote is pretty much his only defence and it shouldn't be surprising why people might be thinking it was a gambit more than actual emotion.

As far as me not taking a stance on you, I feel you are BS's partner the way you are (hard?)defending him. I also feel that maybe you wouldn't do it as scum. So I am conflicted.

It is difficult for me to know where you stand at and this isn't the first time this has happened to me in mafia. The previous game we played with you were scummy on day 1 and actually, there were some things you did that I just didn't see coming from town. It wasn't until day 3 I town read you.

If I had to take a stance it would be that you are scum, especially given the fact that you conveniently have placed everybody who was either inactive or had little activity in your null/scum reads.

I don't have much to say regarding coasting. It is day 1, there were problems, I have caught up now. I don't see myself lagging behind now.

Suffice it to say I am scum reading you, blackstar and to some extent I feel that IAI//KAAG/Transcend could be scum. IAI hasn't really done anything and he has had real life problems and KAAG wall is at least something. Dunn, accountant, zefiend, tbg, chumba are all prob town. Transcend is something of a special case because he is getting replaced, so it is better to reserved judgement till the replacement. Derek is prob town, liked his re-entry. Rach I don't know, dunn makes a valid point about maybe she is whiteknighting but maybe she is more observant that's a possibility as well. I mean she is voting black, and there is a very low chance that black is town/she is bussing him. This applies to KAAG as well, unless he has changed his game a lot (which is possible), he doesn't bus his buddies this quickly and generally tries to create a counter wagon.

This is assuming that black is scum, of course. Which I feel pretty confident of at the moment. I was thinking of his lynch until you came in with your "I am waiting for chilled's catchup!" and now I feel worse about you because what you contributed after my catchup isn't really much other than to say I was more inactive compared to our previous game, or that I have similar scum reads to others. In fact, I knew that there wasn't going to be much anyways. I felt that you were posturing taking advantage of my inactivity of acting like you have actual reads and cases, when you don't.

[chilledtea]

You're still sore about that LyLo then, chilled?

to some extent I feel that IAI//KAAG/Transcend could be scum.

Is there anything to this read other than lack of activity from IAI/my predecessor? (Transcend I get). Also, do you think saying "X could be scum" is useful: does it not apply to everyone?

The game hasn't played out in the way games play normally. Most games don't have 44 pages on day 1. The game started out with a huge burst of activity within 5 or so hours and I am giving you the benefit of the doubt here since you are a replacement, you probably don't realize this.

I did realize that, but you were online almost constantly in our last game, so I was expecting more content, even taking that into account.

No, it doesn't apply to everyone. One of the most classical scum moves is to lurk in background while town fight it amongst themselves. I don't think others are guilty of this.

That was regarding your predecessor and IAI.

Regarding content, my content always differs with situation. A situation like lylo is different to day 1.

[chilledtea]

MC, I want you to explain exactly why black is town.

[chilledtea]

Because that's not the only thing scum do.

[chilledtea]

MC is probably town. His case on blackstar is bad though. It feels like it is full of confirmation bias.

VOTE : Blackstar

I think this is best choice for lynch today. I disagree with MC regarding this but I feel MC could be town because of his defence of blackstar seems sincere. Further I find it really difficult to believe that scum would defend their buddies in this manner, and MC is probably not experienced as scum (I don't really know this) to use wifom at this level.

For what it's worth he did something similar in our last game so unless he is trying to fool me here, in which case he is successful, I think he is town.

[chilledtea]

Your defence of shadow. It was similar.

Even though it was an attack on bbt but ultimately it was a defence in my eyes.

[chilledtea]

So was shadow.

The similarity is in how I perceived it back then and how I perceive it now.

[chilledtea]

So where did I post anything about if black fllips scum?

Anyways, if he flips town I would have to look at transcend, IAI, KAAG most likely.

[chilledtea]

Anyways, if he flips town I would have to look at transcend, IAI, KAAG most likely.

What's the reasoning for looking at them?

Also IAI and KAAG same slot or did you mean you'd look at both iso's

Transcend because I feel he is independently scummy. There is not much to look at regarding him. So his replacement basically.

IAI and KAAG are not the same slot, they are different. There really isn't much in their ISO's, if blackstar flips town then I would most likely take a look at them plus the usual analysis of non-associatives with the help of night kill.

I am pretty confident that blackstar is scum though.

[chilledtea]

I want to see what pants says regarding KAAG's case.

[chilledtea]

I want to see what pants says regarding KAAG's case.

You really can't expect a player to respond to a case made in their predecessor.

I was more interested in his reaction - more than the answers itself.

Considering he is taking quite a while to even give his thoughts regarding the game let alone catching up, I don't feel better about his slot.

[chilledtea]

I don't see anything off about RachMarie. Make a case if you want to get me on board, etc.

Accountant's Reads List

Reads are expressed in terms of probability of flipping mafia, with 100% being confirmed scum and 0% being confirmed town. Given a 13 player setup and 2-3 possible scum(to maintain balance), I've set the base rate for being scum as [(2.5/13)*100], rounded down, or 19%. Thus, a read of 19% is perfectly null.

KickAssAndGiggle - 12%
MURDERCAT - 60%
KuroiXHF - 16%
Chumba - 20%
Accountant - 0%
chilledtea - 35%
BlackStar - 83%
RachMarie - 15%
I Am Innocent - 19%
Dunnstral - 14%
Derek12 - 15%
Pants98 - 19%
TehBrawlGuy - 10%

As you can see, my strongest townread is TehBrawlGuy, and my top scumreads are BlackStar and MURDERCAT by a fairly large margin(this is why I've been tunnelling on them). Most of the replacement players have fallen into a loose cluster just below null, based on the quality of their catchups, reads and posts. The reason for the low deviation is due to the fact that the old occupiers of that slot lurked very hard and were therefore null.

I'd be happy to go into more detail on any of my reads if required.

I've never seen reads list like this.

Also makes no sense. The base rate is a joke.

19% is null (between scum and town) and if you were to calculate the same reads list from a different perspective i.e how much you think someone is town (10.5/13)*100,
you get a base rate of 81% as null which would be ridiculous.

Like all I got from that reads list is that you are scum reading murdercat and blackstar, which we knew already. And maybe that town read of TBG which we knew already as well.

[chilledtea]

I just can't get in sync with kuroi's catchup. I will wait for him to complete his catchup and then go through all of it because right now it is a bit difficult for me to understand his posts.

[chilledtea]

Considering he is taking quite a while to even give his thoughts regarding the game let alone catching up, I don't feel better about his slot.

You think he's more likely to be scum because he's taking a while to catch up?

No, but he is showing no signs of catching up. I am waiting for him to say something, all he has said is something about some reaction test.

[chilledtea]

I understand you are tunneling on TBG, chumba, but if he was not playing the game, who would you look at as scum? I think you are tunneling on town player, and the back and forth tween you and him has felt very much t v t to me. How do you feel about Black? How do you feel about mc? Can you see either of them as scum, if say TBG flipped town or was not in the game?

Oh wow. This post came off real weird because chumba has practically shouted throughout the thread regarding her scumreads - literally the page before this chumba has stated her scumreads.

This feels very much like scum posturing as town.

[chilledtea]

No it isn't.

[chilledtea]

The journey from 81% 100% is smaller than the journey from 81% to 0%, like,

I don't know how anyone can say that it is easy to have confirmed townies compared to confirmed scum. It seems equally difficult to get either. The way I see it 50% should be null.

I mean this is all semantics but ultimately such a reads list only manages to convey nothing regarding your actual reads and hence it is not reasonable.

[chilledtea]

I'm sorry but fact =/= arrogance imo.

And tbh I don't really give a rats ass what you are sick of.

TOWN DOES NOT LIE
TOWN DOES NOT INTENTIONALLY MISREP A PLAYERS POSTS
TOWN DOES NOT MANIPULATE

I've proven the first 2 as true and he's admitted to the third.

Anyone who is town who doesn't see this and vote brawl can seriously go sit on a stick as far as I'm concerned. Ignoring blatantly obvious scummy behavior warrants disrespect from me. I tried to be nice but I just can't do it anymore. Being nice went out the window when stupidity blinded people.

What are you doing here is textbook definition of manipulation. If you are town you need to know that sometimes town do manipulate either knowingly or unknowingly.

People do not need to vote with you to gain your respect. I get you are scumreading TBG but I mainly feel everything that is happening between you and TBG as something that originated from a possible misunderstanding. It all feels like a stretch when you say that what TBG said regarding you asking questions and having reads as a lie because he has explained himself regarding it and apart from all that there is very little to make me feel like he is scum.

Like making it all personal saying that the players on the site are bad and such - like I do not mind it but it can be classified as nothing but manipulation.

[chilledtea]

Still waiting for pants to catch up.

Blackstar is as usual trying to see where he can deflect his wagon - he just doesn't seem to even care where it goes as long as its not him.

Didn't like rach asking for something which is already available.

Kuroi's catchup is weird as hell and I am just waiting for it to complete.

Would like it if TBG gave his thoughts more. I guess we are all just waiting for kuroi and pants to catch up.

[chilledtea]

I am going to just wait for mollie to complete here catchup.

I still feel that blackstar is scum and I am not seeing the scumhunting that mollie is seeing in blackstar.

Her entry feels good though.

Except her flip-flop on transcend, which I am not sure what to make of. On the basis of one post she goes "Will never lynch!" and then on the basis of another she becomes unsure of transcend.

It is possible I am reading too much into it though.

[chilledtea]

Why are you casting doubt on town

It's more like sharing thoughts.

[chilledtea]

VOTE : Pants08

[chilledtea]

Lets reverse the question.

Who would you lynch today pants?

[chilledtea]

We should lynch pants today.

He is our best lynch today for several reasons.

There is a great chance he is scum. His reaction to the pressure is terrible, worse than blackstar's.

His claim means even if it is a mislynch we do not lose a PR and his inactivity means we do not get bogged down on day 3 and 4 - if he is town lylo/mylo will be impossible with him around and he would be around. No scum would NK him.

Dunn's theory is laughable. If dunn is town then he needs to pay more attention - his scumreads =/= scum. A quick wagon doesn't mean it is always on town - I was scum in a recent game and got lynched on page 1. Granted I got bussed in that game. It was also multiball. But it was page 1.

Even if we consider that there are scum on pants wagon, there is a good chance that they are bussing their partner. If not we lose an inactive player. The lynch will give us a flip and that will give us more information on day 2 which along with NK will help us.

Pants with his play will always be scummy and he will be pinging our scumdars for the rest of the game. It is the most optimal play on day 1 to lynch the scummiest player, unless they have claimed a PR or something along those lines.

[chilledtea]

Except pants lynch is not a policy lynch.

Pants is being lynched because he is scummy, because he is not really co-operating with us as far as posting his reads and thoughts are concerned and that is making it difficult for us to have a proper read on him.

His predecessor was scummy as well.

Pedit : Yeah ninja'd by several people.

[chilledtea]

Respond to KAAGs case and show how it's wrong?

People can make a good case on somebody and still be wrong. Nobody else has been able to make a case outside of his lack of contribution which is why this screams policy. His wagon grew way to fast to be on scum.

Now I doubt I'll be around to throw it in people's faces so I'm doing it now. This is most likely a town flip so please Lynch brawl tomorrow and accountant day 3.

Thanks

Oh yes. That's a good one. Nobody has been able to make a case outside of lack of activity.

What do you make a case out of? Thin air?

His responses to our votes and our requests have been pathetic and there is a good enough reason to think he is scum - there is a very good chance he is hoping the wagon lifts off of him and that is exactly what you are doing.

Pedit :

tea I wld like your input too

Frankly kuroi makes more sense as pants scummate than dunn imo although I need to go over kuroi's ISO completely since I just skimmed past it. Dunn felt pretty town to me during blackstar's wagon and rach's entry so I don't know if he is scum or just misguided town.

[chilledtea]

So you think I'm scum but haven't read my posts?

This isn't about this game, is it? You're just jealous that I'm better looking, right?

I never said I didn't read your posts.

I said that I skimmed through it and it was because of the way you reply in your quotes. Reading your half catchup from some part of the game and then going back later on felt like a disconnect so I just skimmed through it without an emphasis on analysing the posts.

Your defence of pants was an current affairs thing which I definitely noted.

[chilledtea]

I need to do some re-reading of my own.

KAAG, I didn't really have much to say at twilight. I wanted pants lynch and was waiting for the flip.

I didn't like accountant during the later parts of day 1 but I need to do a re-read.

[chilledtea]

Not me. I hope someone does because I can't tell which was the night kill. They were both obv!town so we either have an SK or somebody has been a silly chap/chapess.

I need to re-read the twilight from D1, there were some posts that pinged me but I need to remember who exactly said what and when. Definitely Kuroi was one, and Dunnstral.

Rach wasn't obvtown. If we do have a vig I am pretty sure rach's kill was by the vig. TBG was universally townread, I don't think the vig would kill TBG.

If we have an SK, either is possible.

[chilledtea]

I didn't like accountant during the later parts of day 1 but I need to do a re-read.

You were worse

Why?

[chilledtea]

Are you denying that pants was the best lynch on day 1?

If you are, then you are wrong. I have always held that if town don't play as a team then there is very little individuals can do about it.

From my experience, such players as pants (unless they are PR's) make it difficult for town later on by being constantly on the scumdar and allowing scum to camouflage themselves in.

The question regarding how many scum are there on his wagon is bad.

This is because one can argue that regardless of who is lynched, there is at least one scum on the wagon.

Also, it wasn't like we had a better alternative. He was the scummiest person, he would have got lynched down the road, and he didn't co-operate. Also if he was scum, we would be giving him a pass for absolutely no reason other than "the wagon grew too quickly" that is not a defence, sorry.

[chilledtea]

Sorry, your theory is garbage. I would explain but I actually don't think you understand. Even through pure statistical point of view, your theory is bad. The assumption that a quickwagon is always on town is so silly that it is hurting my brain. So many bad assumptions, I don't play mafia that way, sorry.

You can keep sitting on my wagon all day, it doesn't matter to me.

[chilledtea]

Dunn, if pants was scum, how many scum would have been there on his wagon?

[chilledtea]

So you think there are more than 3 scum this game?

[chilledtea]

I asked if pants was scum, how many would on his wagon would be scum.

You said 2+ which means you think there could have been a possible 4th scum.

[chilledtea]

I didn't realize the if pants was scum part

Not sure why you're even asking me that because he was town

I was talking hypothetically.

Long story short I do not consider it to be of that much importance how many scum were there on his wagon because I rather scumhunt my way at least on day 2, where I have a good record of catching scum.

Pants could have easily have been scum with his play, so the people on his wagon could easily have been town with their votes on him. Simple logic.

I agree though, that is highly improbable that there is no scum on his wagon. Even if we assume there are 2 scum on his wagon, it doesn't take us anywhere. You were wrong on rach, you are wrong about me.

Can't really fault you for your read on rach though but still.

[chilledtea]

Okay.

I am not ignoring anything.

I think accountant is scum and he was on the wagon.

So I am not looking elsewhere. I just do not consider the no. of scum on his wagon to be of importance at the moment because it is pointless.

[chilledtea]

"after I've gone about where the scum is"

Yes they could be in the 7 players that voted for pants, true.

I do not scumhunt in that manner till day 4 maybe. Reason being it is useless to me. And also till recently I did not ever scumhunt in that manner because it involves a lot of work.

[chilledtea]

Okay.

I am not ignoring anything.

I think accountant is scum and he was on the wagon.

So I am not looking elsewhere. I just do not consider the no. of scum on his wagon to be of importance at the moment because it is pointless.

If you've made a case on Accountant, can you point me at it?

@Dunn

, I was the only one who voted Pants on that wagon based 100% on Transcend's posts, so I don't get why I'm a scum read. Help me out here and actually explain you reads please. Because other than Chumba and chilled, I don't really get them.

I haven't made a case so I cannot.

[chilledtea]

Accountant, can you tell me why you would shoot TBG over, say murdercat? He has been on your scumdar for longer than TBG has and also explain why you suddenly scumread TBG yesterday.

[chilledtea]

Accountant was town reading TBG for the greater part of day 1.

Then he suddenly changed his read on him for some reason.

And then he vigged him.

I think accountant is SK. It makes more sense in several ways for accountant to be an sk instead of a vig.

1) He says he is 2-shot. If he was 2-shot, I doubt he would use his 1-shot on night 1 itself and on someone like TBG. This one maybe a minor point but still.

2) The mod wouldn't need to out the gunslinger if gunslinger is town. I think it makes a lot of sense for the mod to out the SK instead, to notify us that this is a multiball-ish game.

Mafia Vig is obviously not normal so acc is not aligned with mafia. Now we need to calculate if we should lynch the sk today, or should we go for mafia instead. If we can lynch mafia today we would be in a very good position tomorrow and it can force mafia to kill the SK instead.

[chilledtea]

Lynching the SK will reduce 1 NK though which might be better if the mafia doesn't go for the SK.

Hmm, will need to think about this.

Anyways, I will need to do a short re-read of day 1.

[chilledtea]

No it doesn't make sense and you should feel bad making that post

If you really looked into it you'd have quoted the part where accountant says I was neon green/ third party in their reads

Pretty sure accountant is vig and you're just doubtcasting

Here's another thing: EVEN IF accountant is serial killer (they're not) that doesn't make you not mafia

It makes complete sense. I don't know where he says you are third party though. And those things don't even matter.

If you had any experience playing as a vig you would know that unless the vig is a very bad player, they do not target people on night 1 especially if they have limited shots. This is common.

Also, I am not buying that he would shoot someone whom he was town reading for the bigger portion of day 1 as a vig. AND, it makes no sense for the mod to out the vig in public.

So yes, he is confirmed SK fmpov.

[chilledtea]

did u miss the bit where I said I thought TBG was almost certainly scum

This was what made me suspicious of you though.

How did you go, from TBG is most likely town, to TBG is most likely scum? That progression of your read was very bad and it makes a lot of sense to me that an SK might have done that to look like town Vig.

Like, if you are town you are the worst vig player I've seen. And that is not possible, sorry.

[chilledtea]

shooting chilled tonight if no lynch - he can't be town at this point.

LOL.

The fact that you even consider no lynch a possibility. lmao.

Sorry that you have been caught as an SK. You can kill me tonight, if you escape the lynch of course.

This isn't the first time btw, that I have been threatened with an NK openly during the day so I will just take it as a complement.

[chilledtea]

Nonsense. It is all about being sure about whom you are targeting.

Pretty sure TBG was not just a town lean in your eyes, maybe I need to do some digging.

Also it isn't ad hominem because you are 100% scum. There is no doubt about it.

Remember that stupid reads list you posted? I remember it. Pretty sure TBG was high on it as town lean.

And then your sudden change in you reads regarding blackstar, TBG it was the strangest thing ever. It came very much at right the time pants lynch was all but confirmed, I believe.

[chilledtea]

Because I lied about my TBG reads earlier in the game. Please read before you make assumptions.

And why would you lie? There is no reason to.

[chilledtea]

And then your sudden change in you reads regarding blackstar, TBG it was the strangest thing ever. It came very much at right the time pants lynch was all but confirmed, I believe.

So if accountant is serial killer, why do they bend over backwards to shoot tbg again? I think I missed that part in your argument

Oh wait there's literally no reason to do that and then claim the shot the next day as sk, the fact that you're even on about this makes me feel very good about lynching you

This is a valid question.

I just don't see town play from accountant and it makes more sense that he would try to thin our town reads as SK then he would as the vig.

By the way, I got that you feel good about my lynch. You have been saying that since like the start of the day.

Just stop defending the SK, please?

[chilledtea]

To get reactions from other people/tbg

What was it about not answering questions aimed at other people that we discussed during day 1?

[chilledtea]

Sure. I am sure that is the reason why you lied.

So did you want to get nightkilled then? Because before the day ended, you outed your scum read on TBG.

[chilledtea]

So why did you scum read TBG in the first place?

[chilledtea]

If accountant was town, he wouldn't have targeted TBG.

He wouldn't have lied regarding TBG.

He would have killed murdercat instead.

He is the SK 100%, either you believe it or not, it doesn't matter.

TBG was town read by a lot of people. Vigs do not kill people like that on night 1, especially when they have only 2 shots.

It is silly, ridiculous. He is not the vig, I guarantee you that.

The mod has no reason to out the town vig. He does have some reason to out the SK because some consider it necessary. Multiball and all that.

At this point the only reason I am not voting him is to consider whether the optimal play is to lynch him or mafia. Although looking at things if it is me vs accountant then it will eventually be him who gets lynched.

[chilledtea]

I'm not going to vote because these are all mobile posts but I will be back home to my computer this evening

But...

I can't help but notice Chilledtea's go from lurking to desperate defense from day one to day two. The difference is like night and day and it doesn't look like it's coming from town

Your attempt at throwing shade has been noted. Thank You.

[chilledtea]

If accountant was town, he wouldn't have targeted TBG.

He wouldn't have lied regarding TBG.

He would have killed murdercat instead.

He is the SK 100%, either you believe it or not, it doesn't matter.

TBG was town read by a lot of people. Vigs do not kill people like that on night 1, especially when they have only 2 shots.

It is silly, ridiculous. He is not the vig, I guarantee you that.

The mod has no reason to out the town vig. He does have some reason to out the SK because some consider it necessary. Multiball and all that.

At this point the only reason I am not voting him is to consider whether the optimal play is to lynch him or mafia. Although looking at things if it is me vs accountant then it will eventually be him who gets lynched.

Why wouldn't you include mafia as a possibility?

Accountant is claiming vig. He is claiming the second kill.

Mafia vig is not normal.

[chilledtea]

If accountant was town, he wouldn't have targeted TBG.

He wouldn't have lied regarding TBG.

He would have killed murdercat instead.

He is the SK 100%, either you believe it or not, it doesn't matter.

TBG was town read by a lot of people. Vigs do not kill people like that on night 1, especially when they have only 2 shots.

It is silly, ridiculous. He is not the vig, I guarantee you that.

The mod has no reason to out the town vig. He does have some reason to out the SK because some consider it necessary. Multiball and all that.

At this point the only reason I am not voting him is to consider whether the optimal play is to lynch him or mafia. Although looking at things if it is me vs accountant then it will eventually be him who gets lynched.

Why wouldn't you include mafia as a possibility?

Accountant is claiming vig. He is claiming the second kill.

Mafia vig is not normal.

Mafia vig technically is normal. Got burned by it before.

Second, why are you certain that accountant's kill isn't mafia?

Apparently they changed the rules regarding it. It is in the wiki.

Accountant claimed the kill on TBG.

[chilledtea]

Nope. I am voting Murder because of the VCs and the consensus that Murder should have been the shot. Why is that the case and no one voting murder today? Second, accountant might be a self-resolving problem.

I'm ignoring the end conclusions of the setup spec and waiting to see what unfolds.

There was no such consensus.

Murder was accountant's scum read and TBG was not. Which is why I said that accountant should have killed murder, even if he went with his own reads instead of the town's.

[chilledtea]

Are you denying that pants was the best lynch on day 1?

If you are, then you are wrong. I have always held that if town don't play as a team then there is very little individuals can do about it.

Wait, are you saying that Pants was the best lynch because the town decided to lynch him?

Pants was a bad choice. Nearly a terrible choice.

Okay then. Tell me what was the "best choice" in your opinion. If I recall correctly you thought pants was scum when he was lynched.

From my experience, such players as pants (unless they are PR's) make it difficult for town later on by being constantly on the scumdar and allowing scum to camouflage themselves in.

And there have been many players like Pants that I've played with in the past, and I understand the frustration... but he was town.

Yeah this is nonsense. He could easily have been scum.

Sorry, your theory is garbage. I would explain but I actually don't think you understand. Even through pure statistical point of view, your theory is bad. The assumption that a quickwagon is always on town is so silly that it is hurting my brain. So many bad assumptions, I don't play mafia that way, sorry.

A condescending tone is not a great defense.

did u miss the bit where I said I thought TBG was almost certainly scum

This was what made me suspicious of you though.

How did you go, from TBG is most likely town, to TBG is most likely scum? That progression of your read was very bad and it makes a lot of sense to me that an SK might have done that to look like town Vig.

Like, if you are town you are the worst vig player I've seen. And that is not possible, sorry.

durrr ad hominem
vote this scumlord plz

Okay.
VOTE: ChilledTea It's beyond scummy after your role claim to start going after you. You've also been one of the towniest players all game. Not only is ChilledTea scum - he is bad scum.

Basically, you just want a reason to vote me, then cool. Cause either you are completely blind, or you are scum and frankly I feel it's the latter.

[chilledtea]

Anyone who thinks I'm SK please give a good explanation of why I would claim after shooting TBG? There wasn't any pressure on me at that moment.

I admit this made me think for a while. Why would you claim without pressure?

I think claiming gunslinger when majority of the town thought of the gunslinger as the vig makes a lot of sense for an sk, especially when demanded that they claim the kill.

[chilledtea]

Nice misrep chilled.

Just caught up, wanted to do a percentage list but you guys hate that so time to old skool it

BlackStar, KAAG and Chumba are near confirmed town in my eyes, mollie, Dunn and Rach are middling town, Derek is weak town, chilled and murdercat is scumlean, Kuroi is null, TBG is 95% scum.

Clearly showing how TBG was a stronger scumread.

Did you not read the thread, or is this a desperate attempt at making me look bad?

Yes we know you changed your reads.

It is not a misrep.

The fact that you are acting like I believe your claim that your final reads list was the actual reads list is silly.

I think it was just a smokescreen for your night kill.

That is what I've been saying for a long time.

It makes a lot of sense to me that you lied on your second reads list, rather than the first one that you posted because the second one looks more unnatural. For eg, blackstar was very high on your scumdar yesterday. You pushed him heavily and then suddenly in your second reads list he is almost confirmed town?

[chilledtea]

oh and there is derek. I keep forgetting about him.

chilled y u no talk to meh?

What do you want to talk about?

[chilledtea]

I like how you flat out refuse to talk to mollie even after mollie said it was a scumtell

Maybe it is possible that I was catching up and didn't want to branch out of it.

[chilledtea]

I have been thinking regarding accountant. I am not 100% sure about him now because of his claim regarding 2-shot.

I think that if he is the SK, him claiming he is 2-shot puts him in a pretty bad position in the later stages of the game.

Other than that claim, practically everything regarding him has screamed scum.

[chilledtea]

I don't see anything off about RachMarie. Make a case if you want to get me on board, etc.

Accountant's Reads List

Reads are expressed in terms of probability of flipping mafia, with 100% being confirmed scum and 0% being confirmed town. Given a 13 player setup and 2-3 possible scum(to maintain balance), I've set the base rate for being scum as [(2.5/13)*100], rounded down, or 19%. Thus, a read of 19% is perfectly null.

KickAssAndGiggle - 12%
MURDERCAT - 60%
KuroiXHF - 16%
Chumba - 20%
Accountant - 0%
chilledtea - 35%
BlackStar - 83%
RachMarie - 15%
I Am Innocent - 19%
Dunnstral - 14%
Derek12 - 15%
Pants98 - 19%
TehBrawlGuy - 10%

As you can see, my strongest townread is TehBrawlGuy, and my top scumreads are BlackStar and MURDERCAT by a fairly large margin(this is why I've been tunnelling on them). Most of the replacement players have fallen into a loose cluster just below null, based on the quality of their catchups, reads and posts. The reason for the low deviation is due to the fact that the old occupiers of that slot lurked very hard and were therefore null.

I'd be happy to go into more detail on any of my reads if required.

This was what I was talking about.

[chilledtea]

I have been thinking regarding accountant. I am not 100% sure about him now because of his claim regarding 2-shot.

I think that if he is the SK, him claiming he is 2-shot puts him in a pretty bad position in the later stages of the game.

Other than that claim, practically everything regarding him has screamed scum.

Explain to me how Accountant lives as a scumfuck in this game beyond a night or two.

This is a valid question.

I am not sure to be honest. Maybe he didn't see anyone catching him. He was widely town read on day 1.

[chilledtea]

VOTE : Kuroi

[chilledtea]

OK my words got lost in a bunch of quotes

How come you attack kuroi who voted you but don't seem to care about me? I was also saying pants was town too

What made you think I voted kuroi because he said pants was town?

He contradicted himself. He says there is no better choice for day 1 but when pants was getting lynched he said that pants was probably scum.

Are you even paying attention to the game?

[chilledtea]

EBWOP : He said pants was a bad choice for day 1.

[chilledtea]

He says there is no better choice for day 1 but when pants was getting lynched he said that pants was probably scum.

How is this a contradiction? There is no better choice than a probable scum.

So read the edit.

[chilledtea]

KAAG's last post can be categorically summarized as

"Yes I agree"

'No I was honest"

"Agreed"

"BS read list"

[chilledtea]

Like the whole "I don't feel it is T vs T" is just BS.

I don't like the fact that he doesn't take an actual stance regarding my arguments regarding accountant.

The only people who actually had anything to say regarding it were titus and mollie. Everyone is else is basically "Hey you are scum for reasons! Die!"

Like no analysis at all.

[chilledtea]

I want to know why town accountant does what he did.

It is immaterial imo what is the optimal play for an SK.

[chilledtea]

I want to know why town accountant does what he did.

It is immaterial imo what is the optimal play for an SK.

Because he honestly read TBG as scum, and wanted to be the big-bad scum hunter extraordinaire?

You've never seen a bad vig shot before?

It is not about a bad vig shot.

Why the sudden change in his reads? Why the change in his read of blackstar and TBG?

[chilledtea]

There's just as much responsibility on you to explain an SKs motivation as there is to explain a townie's motivation. Town wants to kill scum, so townie shoots scum read. Your turn to explain the SK motivation for

1. flipping reads on TBG just to set up the shot
2. Shooting a widely town read player when planning to claim the shot
3. Claiming the shot with no pressure

1) and 2) Thinning the town reads of several people with an excuse.

3) There was a demand for the claim. This is the best time to claim as the vig if you are the sk. Even if it isn't the best time, you won't be able to claim vig later on since people will latch on to the fact that you shot several town-y people, and refused to claim initially.

[chilledtea]

It's obvious that the read didn't change, he was just hiding his read.

Yes he was hiding his town read on blackstar by pushing his wagon. Real obvious.

[chilledtea]

I am still in disbelief over 2100.

Sorry it will take some time to find the right words to explain.

[chilledtea]

Murdercat, let me ask you something.

If accountant had not flipped his reads regarding anyone, logically who should have been shot by him if he was town?

[chilledtea]

By the way, dunn misread my post and that was my attempt at getting him to answer my question again. That was regarding the first post in 2101.

The second one is meh. Not really that important.

[chilledtea]

I don't see why I should waste my time convincing anyone.

We are not lynching accountant today anyways for several reasons one of which is that he is a threat to the mafia as well, so mafia will have to nk him some night or the other.

We should lynch kuroi today.

His was the most opportunistic vote on my wagon and he has also been caught basically posturing with his "pants was a terrible choice".

Kuroi/Dunn/Acc are the three scum. Dunn is the only one I am not sure about.

[chilledtea]

Oh, and I am actually not getting lynched today. I was serious when I said that.

[chilledtea]

There's just as much responsibility on you to explain an SKs motivation as there is to explain a townie's motivation. Town wants to kill scum, so townie shoots scum read. Your turn to explain the SK motivation for

1. flipping reads on TBG just to set up the shot
2. Shooting a widely town read player when planning to claim the shot
3. Claiming the shot with no pressure

1) and 2) Thinning the town reads of several people with an excuse.

3) There was a demand for the claim. This is the best time to claim as the vig if you are the sk. Even if it isn't the best time, you won't be able to claim vig later on since people will latch on to the fact that you shot several town-y people, and refused to claim initially.

ugh. I agree with this, so much.

@ chilled

it wld have to take a certain amount of confidence and huzpuh and trust in the scumteam to be able to pull a fake vig claim when he was under no pressure to do so. I don't know if accountant is there yet to be able to pull this off, not saying that he won't ever be, I am saying that I don't think so rn, mainly cos like I said it wld take a certain amount of trust that scum wld not fearkill you.

he wld have to be certain of the scumteam in order to work with them in the game thread and coordinate a thinning of the herd strategy. it is also that it is obvs that this did not occur to him which makes me think he is town.

I see where you are coming from but I think you are wrong. you have said some clangers and you have said some stuff that I have liked. you have been giving me a town feel all game mostly and I am not sure that I see you and titus as partners and I KNOW that titus is scum.

the post game is going to be blistering for this.

Well, I actually have no experience as an SK. I do have experience as vig.

I am also willing to let this slide for now. I don't think it matters much at least now, and I have an headache.

[chilledtea]

Mollie is right regarding me when she said that I am something special. That's all I will say regarding the topic.

Kuroi is still the best choice for the lynch btw. Nothing he has said has made me change my mind.

By the way derek is scum as well. His "reads list" is hilarious. He has both me and accountant as lean scum which makes no sense from any perspective. Unless he thinks acc is the SK and I am mafia which would be strange for a person who hasn't read the thread.

Kuroi/Derek/ + (Accountant)/(Dunn)

is the scum combination.

[chilledtea]

Since you seem to think kuroi is scumlord maybe u should vote him?

I already have.

[chilledtea]

Be honest you're fosing me because I pushed on you.

Why is kuroi town?

[chilledtea]

I'm guessing Pants is scum. This doesn't sound like town just got lynched.

This is the part where kuroi thinks that pants lynch was actually good.

He goes on like this for several more posts which mean that he did think that pants could have been scum, at least on the basis of pants reaction post-flip.

I don't see how he thinks this could be a terrible lynch.

Further he has attempted to throw shade on me several times and his vote on me was just jumping on a convenient wagon.

Also disagree with titus being scummier than kuroi.

[chilledtea]

Yes well the thing is kuroi doesn't care if I get lynched.

Pretty much he doesn't care who gets lynched and he has made 0 worthwhile analysis this game.

It is one thing to vote someone, it is another to vote someone for empty reasons like, "pants wagon was terrible!" when it wasn't. By his own statement it wasn't.

[chilledtea]

Sorry for the absence guys, I was busier than usual.

Kuroi could be so easily fakeclaiming btw. Doctor is the most common fakeclaim when scum is getting lynched because that has the highest chance of escaping the lynch + possible counterclaim.

Anyways, I am 1-shot bulletproof.

[chilledtea]

And Kuroi, just because I am absent doesn't mean that I am hiding. I was busy and had to keep mafia aside for some time.

[chilledtea]

I will be catching up guys. It will take some time since I need to read from the start of the day.

I will also be a bit busy over the next week or so, but I will still be posting. I will setup my V/LA thing for that.

[chilledtea]

I have finally caught up.

I am inclined to believe chumba when she says that she is the doc. Her pushes and her reads have always seemed genuine and her counter claim was also very genuine.

Titus pushing that was strange. Her reasoning revolving around setup spec is flawed imo. However her reactions to the kuroi wagon on day 2 plus her reasoning around her reads in general makes me feel she is town.

Murdercat is probably town as well. The only thing about him I do not like is his tunnel on me but at this point I don't care. I don't think murdercat would bus his partner in that manner. Not to mention there is a certain track to his thought process, and I feel relatively confident in my town read of his.

I also think that mathblade/accountant is probably town, and if they aren't, we should assume as such. This is because if they are the sk then they are easily caught, plus I don't think they are the sk anymore. Accountant's reaction on day 2, in hindsight was more townie than scummy. Him shooting at derek is definitely more townie than scummy. Him voting me when derek/infinity was alive made little sense though.

KAAG on day 2 was sketchy. Although he didn't post much his vote on me was strange. He could very well be scum although there isn't much incriminating him, other than his vote on me. Although his tone made me feel he actually believed what he said, so I don't know.

Infinity and dunn are definitely my first choice for the scum team. If math is sk then our job is easier, otherwise we lynch one these and then proceed from there.

I feel more confident on infinity being scum than dunn though. His flip-flopping on titus while calling titus as town in his first post to then calling her scum, especially when it looked like the wagon on titus was gaining traction, it looked opportunistic and survivalistic. I also didn't like his attempt to get me lynched; I can only get killed by a lynch so I find it suspicious. He has flip-flopped on that as well though.

[chilledtea]

Well I agree on a lot of your townreads but it looks like I'm your top scumread. But you seem like a reasonable person, and I may well be today's lynch target, so are you willing to discuss some stuff with me now that you're here and have the chance?

I'm thinking that dunn is town due to his stances that are random and don't seem to be pushing any sort of agenda

I get what you mean about the flip-flopping, but I was doing a lot of ISO'ing and meta research so that's what accounts for the change

I still want either you or titus lynched today, so unfortunately we probably won't be able to agree on a lynch for today but at least we can work out who else could be the remaining scums

The only thing I don't like is the OMGUS reasoning, just cause you're a 1-shot BP doesn't mean town wouldn't vote you

Shit maybe the only person I'll get to agree on about anything turns out to be scum, gotta give it a try right

It's true that town wouldn't not vote me just because I am BP.

But it is also the only way scum can get me out of the way. And I don't think it is unreasonable to expect that play from them at this point of time in the gamestate.

Incidentally the OMGUS nature that you talk about is false since I was scum reading derek earlier, although the scum read was not that strong.

Dunn's stances are not random and imo it looked very much like he would rather anyone else be lynched than kuroi. Kuroi and titus scum combination makes little sense though and his willingness to vote there also doesn't sit right with me.

I mean it is possible I am wrong about titus but I don't think so.

[chilledtea]

So do you have anything specific which makes you feel that titus was bussing kuroi?

I am not denying that it is possible. However I don't think scum would hardbus their partner in the way titus did but it is definitely not impossible.

Pedit : I don't have a very high opinion of meta reads. From my experience meta reads tend to be wrong many times. At which point I don't even dig into meta unless there is something I want to know regarding someone's personality.

I have actually played with scum titus twice now. The first time I caught her too late, the second time I was scum in a different faction, but still caught her. From what I have heard she actually has a tendency of defending her scum buddies.

[chilledtea]

Don't do too good of a job convincing me titus is town or else my vote might switch to you

Ok so why are you town and why is dunn scum other than the defense of kuroi which just looks like a bad read to me

It makes a lot of sense to me that scum_dunn knew that pants was town - his reasoning that pants was town because of the speed of the wagon is too fast was not that strong at all.

I get the feeling that he knew pants was town, used it to get towncred by whiteknighting the lynch and then used it to throw shade on people on the wagon. His reasoning that there must be at least 2 scum on the wagon, and his insistence on asking everyone how many scum are there on the wagon, like I don't even see how that is scumhunting. It is possible that he had a bad read, yes, but he never seemed to have a logical progression on his reads.

Furthermore he carried his scumread from day 2 - kuroi's lynch seemed to have no effect on his scum read on myself or titus.

He asks a specific question on day 2 - that kuroi and myself can't be scum together? I think he knows that mislynching me is now more difficult then it was before, he knew it on day 2 itself.

So yes, from my perspective, dunn is scum.

Pedit : If you flip town, then dunn/kaag is the most likely scum team or mathblade is the sk, and dunn is the last scum.

[chilledtea]

Infinity I cannot answer your question because it references a game that is currently ongoing. Besides, I am analytical this game, my only problem was that I lost access to my internet a couple of times during this game, because of which my participation is a bit on the lower side.

Titus vs Chumba is depressing as hell. Don't see chumba as scum and titus pushing the "either chumba or chilled is scum" angle is really sketching me out.

[chilledtea]

Regarding murder, we played together in a newbie and he was very scummy, everyone scum read him till day 3. He was town there though. If he is town here it should be easier to read him later on.

Hmm chilled if you don't like meta explain this

I use meta for personality and such. Also playing with someone is a bit different than reading someone's past games. Very rarely I read someone's past games.

Murdercat was very scummy that game. Everyone in the town had a scum read on him at some point in the game, luckily he managed to escape the lynch but we lost.

Can't really use meta to decide if someone's town or scum but I use it to take certain attributes into consideration before making my mind about someone.

[chilledtea]

I am terribly sorry for my lack of activity guys. Normally I would replace out of a game like this but I don't want to make the mod go crazy. I have actually lost interest in this game, which is a first. Haven't read the last 10 or so pages and can't get myself to at the moment.

Just give me some time, I will try to get back in this game if possible.

[chilledtea]

I am fine with a dunn lynch.

VOTE: VOTE : Dunnstral[/b]

[chilledtea]

Well that was dumb.

VOTE : Dunnstral

[chilledtea]

I think lynching dunn is the best choice. Titus + Kuroi makes very little sense but it is possible I guess.

[chilledtea]

I think lynching dunn is the best choice. Titus + Kuroi makes very little sense but it is possible I guess.

Why does it make little sense. It's not like she had some amazing case on kuroi. She pushed him because he insulted Mollie. Why wouldn't scum Titus defend town Mollie like that?

I think dunn + kuroi case is much more stronger than titus + kuroi.

[chilledtea]

Wasn't she catching up back then? At least that's the impression I got and I liked her interaction with me on day 2. Blackstar was really scummy but titus wasn't.

[chilledtea]

174 pages? really guys?

Like, seriously?

Just lynch dunn and get this over with. Infinity not voting dunn doesn't surprise me in the slightest btw. His initial push on dunn seemed very surprising though.

Math or chumba, just vote dunn and get this over with.

[chilledtea]

Yes.

[chilledtea]

[chilledtea]

I am voting dunn.

10-4, Moving to extraction, Echo 419, out.

[chilledtea]

Chilled, thoughts on Titus?

I like her as town. Her reads match mine as well and I doubt she is buddying.

[chilledtea]

I want to see what murdercat comes up with after his re-read.

Don't know if the proxy thing is something I like considering murder has been scum reading me for entirety of this game. Titus saying that scum should bus chilled was the weirdest thing I've read today.

Also, sorry dunn. Part of the blame rests on your shoulders for trying to get me lynched from day 2.

[chilledtea]

Murder, I think infinity and titius are the remaining scum. Small chance of nero being scum instead of infinity.

If chumba was scum then she wouldn't have given up the chance to lynch me in mylo, I think.

I don't think you are scum.

[chilledtea]

You want me to go ISO everyone?

PoE is the main reason.

[chilledtea]

Murder, if one of infinity/titus is not scum, we have lost this game. It is that simple.

Sorry for not replacing out of a game which spanned a whole 140 pages + when I lost interest. Also, don't give a damn at this point to either defend myself or scumhunt.

[chilledtea]

If he doesn't hammer me, he is definitely town. You don't need more evidence than that.

[chilledtea]

Well if he is scum it is pointless who he is scum with because we lost at that point.

[chilledtea]

Chilled if you are town why aren't you trying to convince me of that.

Murder what would you do if you were L-1 in this game right now?

[chilledtea]

That's not an answer to my question.

The actual answer is no one's dumb enough to put anymore effort in a game where the game has unnecessarily been lengthened with spam and other nonsense from day 1 itself.

That is the main reason why you are not actually re-reading the game because that is usually what I do during mylo and I don't give a damn. If I don't, you sure as hell aren't going to.

[chilledtea]

Okay then. I will admit I am surprised by that.

[chilledtea]

Well if he is scum it is pointless who he is scum with because we lost at that point.

This assumes we lynch me and Titus over the next 2 days. I don't see why you are making that proposition, because I am town and I strongly town read Titus. (And you town read her too last time I checked...).

You mean on day 3 before dunn and math's flip.

What makes you think it is impossible for a person to change his read on someone?

[chilledtea]

But you didn't explain why you changed your read.

I just want you to explain why Titus and I are scum and why Nero is town.

But I never said nero is town.

Scum is in the three of you, pretty sure chumba and murdercat are town.

I also don't think that you and nero are scum together. It makes more sense for it to be titus scum with either you or nero.

[chilledtea]

Man what a terrible game. Never felt so disinterested in my life in a mafia game till now.

Titus you said I owed you an apology....why was that?

[chilledtea]

Town plays pretty badly on MS unless they are a bunch of really experienced players. Generally, you see good/great town play in theme games and such, otherwise town plays bad.

[chilledtea]

So chilled, I believe I am sorry is in order.

?

[chilledtea]

Just wanted to say that infinity played really well to not get lynched and his reads were perfect, the only good thing about this game.

[chilledtea]

Other than MC of course.

[chilledtea]

You were cool rach.

[chilledtea]

Hahaha thank you.