i've been meaning to put all this together anyway but
there's been 3 kills the first 2 nights and 2 kills the 3rd night
all lynches have been on town so far
one of the nightkills was on scum (which has been claimed by a dead/flipped 2-shot vig (lowell)
there's supposedly an SK but the shaziro claim throws a bit of doubt on that given it's stupid AF for an ostensible SK to cast doubt on lowell's claim (2-shot vig) for ~reasons~
titus busted his balls a lot for the ~reasons~ iirc
what doesn't make sense to me is... well basically everything. expect more wrap ups
This is honestly probably a good place to vote if you won't vote Ircher, but for real, Ircher is scum. You have no clue how frustrating it is to not be able to explain why yet.
both of Titus'/Shaziro's claimed night actions make sense based on what they were saying yesterday
And this was a scummy reaction to that claim. (I'll elaborate it if needed.)
That wasn't a reaction to a claim, shotty posted that all over the site anywhere he was fairly active. He was jumping ship from the whole site. Check his Recent Posts.
I'm gonna do a once-over again on Seth and Kop, but I'm probably about to put a vote there.
In post 3019, Shaziro wrote:Bugger it, I've got some tea in myself so I'm a bit more awake. I feel like I was sheeping too much, and now I know that at least one person I was fairly ok with following was scum. I think Seth's slot may well be town, because of the blow-up at Anen. It didn't seem fake, but I assumed it was mad scum yelling at town. I want to hear from Lowell about why he's playing dumb like that when I believe somebody said he's been around for quite a while and therefore should know better. I've been around for a very short time, but I still know that self-proclaimed "lolhammer"s are awful. Also, I want to see something from earlier...another quick post incoming, once I match a name to a quote.
And who else? Perhaps pmatt, he hasn't been very useful tbh.
4. would the ??? not be aneninen? you know, the flipped scum?
So let's talk about this point, and the fact that it suggests that Ircher -knows- that if Zakk and I were a team, Anen wouldn't be on it. Odds it's because Anen was on he and Titus' team, probably high. Odds them having daychat therefore explains why he was sheeping Titus' votes and Titus was defending him up until somebody mentioned it, and then she tried to hard distance in thread to break that notion? Probably high. The fact that they both got real quiet once it was mentioned? Probably means they were hoping it'd be forgotten. I am perfectly comfortable in my vote at the moment.
this is all of the times shaziro reacted to aneninen or talked about him
pedit: HAAA hahahaa. okay cy seems super town with that response
Post
Post #3847 (isolation #405) » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:11 pm
Postby zakk »
its 11 players dead and 10 players left
there's probably at least 3-4 scum alive including SK
so to get majority we basically need every townie to agree on a lynch
@game reviewer type people:
what's the balance like on:
1. 16 town (with 2 vigs), 5 scum (sounds pretty unbalanced and nothing we've seen could explain it, so discard this)
2. 16 town (with 2 vigs), 4 scum, 1 sk (shaziro telling truth)
3. 16 town (with 1 vig), 4 scum, 1 sk (shaziro lying)
4. ???
if shaziro is telling the truth then there's an unexplained kill N1 so that would mean SK since this is a normal game so (i assume) 1 scum faction wouldn't have 2 kills on N1 even for balance reasons
soooo basically we have an unexplained kill unless Shaziro was lying about killing KTS and actually killed TBG (or much less likely, ETL)
and either way 2 vigs sounds really overbalanced PLUS there have been 10 town deaths and 1 scum death and that was hit by a claimed and flipped town vig.
haha if you are actually VT then you're probably the last person they would kill no offense
there are too many variables in this game. there's like 3 possibilities of what's going on
titus could be a scum VT cop
lowell is now known to be telling the truth but now there's shaziroclaim to suss out
liger was absent from the neighborhood last night according to magna
it's time to setup speculate more and then scumhunt the shit out of aneninen
Post
Post #3851 (isolation #407) » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:21 pm
Postby zakk »
here are some aneninen reads:
8 pages so far and I don't think I'll have time for more today.
Thoughts right now.
Could be town:
Titus (something I can't put my finger on is there in her posts which is there when she's town)
Egg (mostly recent direct meta)
Killthestory (see above)
Copper (although his 167 is not good)
Could be scum:
Ircher (those statistics + his townplay I know was very different)
Zakk (too much early noise and 85)
Shotty (too much early noise and I don't know whether it's relevant or not but that 185 bothers me)
Seth (basically everything so far)
– Were he alone, this'd be the game with the least pages ever.
Illusion Magnet
– Why don't you answer my questions? Why don't you answer my questions? Why don't you, oh, bother.
Persivul
– Either he's looking for the Holy Grail or he wants to wash the dishes. We should keep him and at the end of the party I might help. Washing the dishes is fun.
Nosferatu
– Nomen est omen, I know he's here in the shadows somewhere. I wonder what will happen if he jumps in front. If. A short word with a long meaning.
Experi-dance
– His moves tell us everything. We can believe him and hope that the hand behind his body is only the part of the coreography and it doesn't hold, let's say, a gun.
Shotty
– He's waiting at the bus stop for the vehicle that never comes. How sad.
Projector Stalemate
– Oh, those good old machines from my childhood. We used to watch those slideshow fairy-tales, you know, but every now and then we needed to stop to wait until the projector gets cooled down. Do you know what does that mean?
Zakk McCracken
– The master chef of the party! A pity that he's so lazy that he wants to make scrambled eggs in the microwave. Isn't it- BAAAAAAAOM! Oh damn.
I Am Innocent
– Most Jarre songs have more texts than he does. Need I say more?
Ircher
– He's walking on his own way no matter what happens. He doesn't seem to be worried about the penguins getting thrown at him.
Dale Cooper 223
– He has a little clockwork turtle in his suitcase. Sometimes he puts it on the table and we get happy.
Egg
– He knows how dangerous sitting on the fence for an egg could be. That'swhy he's useful. And I'm not hungry anyway.
Seth Yakuza
– Stupid autocorrect! He wanted to say "plant some tress" instead of "bomb the city". We're so insensitive.
KillTheLorry
– I'm not telling anything until you start townreading me.
Cy, The Sly Try
– He's definitely at the wrong place and wrong time. Either now or when he got his Role PM.
Ain'tneninen
– He's moving his ass so fast that he'll be able to solve the game. Two days after it has ended.
Desmond and Mollie
– He may have a barrow in the marketplace, but he doesn't have a day-off. That'swhy he's never here.
Lowell
– Bring some mushrooms from that forest, will you? Thanks!
Titus
– A lovely slot-machine. You insert the dime and get three lemons back.
TheGrowlGuy
– He's just as picky as for a possible lynch as a crow on the field full of crops and worms.
EspeciallyTheHairdesign
– I know, Titus is scum with everyone! And now, give me a leek to spin, thank you and welcome!
In post 2442, Shaziro wrote:Two reasons, the first of which is that I don't feel like you'd claim like that. The second is for ~reasons~ that would be bad for town to be outed atm.
Post
Post #3857 (isolation #411) » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:32 pm
Postby zakk »
on the other hand he's claimed to have shot town 3 times
either way
if he's telling the truth he should allow his shot to be directed by town popular demand
and no matter whether he's EITHER mafia or SK then the other scum will definitely kill a killing role, just like Lowell got mopped up last night
Post
Post #3858 (isolation #412) » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:34 pm
Postby zakk »
aw fuck i was about to say HEY UT YOU CAN ROLEBLOCK HIM but then i realized you just un-claimed roleblocker
@UT: it's not "that would be dumb" it's more like "that would be suicidal" and shaziro though he's not the brightest crayon (again no offense) he doesn't seem suicidal
plus, reasons above. we should ignore him and let scum waste a kill on maybe-scum maybe-town instead of trying our luck at lynching him.
Post
Post #3920 (isolation #417) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:26 pm
Postby zakk »
I came into today wanting to lynch nobody but Titus. Claim seemed fake and I suspected shotty slot too, and I thought they had awkwardly coordinated uncommon claims for the "too elaborate to be scum" angle
But with the flip of untrod/shotty, her claim's legitimacy skyrockets and basically we can safely believe the result on cy too. So that's 3 out of 8 including each of ourselves
After a skim of some pertinent parts, remaining scum is most likely within Nahdia projectmatt and Liger. Liger probably tried to out the neighborhood for town cred, but why didn't he talk in the thread, and why hasn't he died yet, and why is he replacing out now? Maybe there are other circumstances for that but the other two points stand easily on their own
And then projectmatt has li nd of been acting like scum entire game, staying just on the periphery and only really pushing one case of consequence, Nosferatu.
I don't trust Titus' reads like at ALL but the claim of odd night neo matches very well with even night role-stopper because she clears a townoe and the roles topper targets them the next night to guarantee at least one night of conftown not dying and there's always the possibility the role stopper targets Titus instead of Titus target so WIFOM for scum too
Everything is making more sense now
Nahdia throwing shade on Titus today is super weak, I'm thinking anen was a bus specifically of how it went down on anen's end, though Nahdia sold it very well if it WAS a bus
I feel safest lynching projectmatt or liger first. Leaning liger because projectmatt at least HAS pushed a case. And also the people that are alive right now are the people I would expect him not to be killing. I would never expect him to kill Magna EVER, mostly because of the whole one-scum-in-the-neighborhood theory that everybody tossed around pretty liberally on D2.
I think we should be holding off on votes for now
More later, phone post in the bathroom at work LOL
Post
Post #3923 (isolation #418) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:43 pm
Postby zakk »
actually
In post 3906, Nahdia wrote:i hipster townread cy early on but eh. pjm and titus could totally be scum together so i mighta been right on that.
attempt at poking sardonic fun at one's own meta with language like "hipster townread". check.
attempt at making wishy washy statements like "but eh" and "could totally be" and "mighta been right" seem like legitimate stream of consciousness posting. check
bonus attempt at linking 2 people together, i see this in endgame mostly done by scum with 1 probtown and 1 probscum, and in this case it seems clear titus would be the town and pmatt would be the scum.
but that's all just my experience talking and none of it is concrete, it's just gut.
however!
main problem with this post lies within nahdia not treating titus claim legitimacy and titus results claim legitimacy with similar levels of "eh", e.g. if nahdia really thought titus was scum she should be throwing shade at cy too, but is not. she's buddying up to cy being town.
thats a completely inconsistent train of thought for town
In post 3908, Nahdia wrote:ok still tho point remains why kill rolestopper over neapolitan. that's bad. that's real bad.
"omg why would scum do this, that makes no sense!"
1. rolefishing for more people to block (titus was blocked N1, but probably not N3 because they probably blocked Lowell or someone else they thought was SK since 1 cleared townie isn't worth 1 dead scum)
2. trying to make it look pro-town a la "hay guys im just collecting information, look at me being so town wheeee"
3. also calls out ostensible scumbuddy to put pressure on them and distance
In post 3913, Liger_Zero wrote:@Mod I cannot play this game anymore, I am actually surprised I wasn't replaced sooner.
if liger is town: no scum wants a fresh set of eyes at this point
if liger is scum: no scum wants a buddy replacing out right now, or at least doesn't want to be seen wanting that
i believe nahdia is scum very strongly now
In post 3919, Nahdia wrote:ugh titus i want you to be town so bad but like : \
and this is the icing on the cake.
ready to vote nahdia. very, very ready.
me >>> cy > titus > magna = egg >> liger > projectmatt >> nahdia atm
and its funny because i bet nahdia thought that string of posts made her look super town.
i have seen a tree stump variation in a game before but not an innocent child.
clearly the mod is using a number of less-common roles. I like it.
nahdia i kinda wish you would have waited until you were about to be wagoned so we would have seen more reactions to you/your wagon but hey this works too for PoE purposes
sooo now it's basically 3 of pmatt, liger/replacement, egg, and magna. so 75% chance of getting it right. and the easiest one to lynch is probably wrong based on the fact that scum could win today if we lynch wrong.
with 8 alive
townie
townie
townie
townie
townie
scum
scum
scum
lynch townie
scum kill townie
yea then it's 3-3
we need to lynch correctly today. i think we have a very good shot of it.
i also only trust opinions from outside those 4
this could not be going better honestly given the shitshow so far
Post
Post #3967 (isolation #429) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:33 am
Postby zakk »
after thinking about it a while, in order of preference i would like:
pmatt
liger
magna
egg
unless i'm wrong about egg, this order is an auto win
IMPORTANT
i'm taking into consideration that magna pushed the lynch on shaziro yesterday
that is in town's best interests, as well, yes, but it could just as well be seen in scum's best interests
magna pushed so hard on it and sounded so convincing, that it showed me what he can do when scumhunting
AND, i'm taking into account that, whether scum- or town-magna, that could NOT have been confbias because scum wouldn't know who the SK is therefore his scumhunting was real
ALSO the fact that the SK doesn't appear to have been blocked any of the nights
TBG kill N1
copper N2
Ircher N3
lynched D4
means that the scum were still hunting for the SK and DID NOT know for a fact who it was (unless they have a role cop or something which could be the case)
so as scum OF COURSE magna would try to get the lynch on shaziro if he thought he was even remotely likely to be SK
which then of course makes me think:
why haven't we seen anything that strong yet from magna, until it's on the one non-townie that it makes a lot of sense to try to power-lynch during daytime, so you don't have to waste a kill on them at night OR risk being killed by them at night?
and then i think:
but if town-magna was that good at pushing cases, why wouldn't scum have killed him so far? I mean look at his title. And read this (yes i looked it up, and Magna was helpful enough to provide me with statistics... albeit from 5 years ago...): http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p2869303
so yea maybe magna is scum here
still would rather lynch projectmatt and liger. haha
Post
Post #3973 (isolation #433) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:37 pm
Postby zakk »
In post 2290, zakk wrote:well there are three kills, which either means
2 scum teams 1 vig
2 scum teams 1 sk
1 scum team 1 sk 1 vig
i think it's unlikely anyone who was scum or SK would want to take out KTS, especially an SK. they would want him alive to draw aggro
so eliminating the 2 scum teams 1 sk option, we have:
2 scum teams 1 vig
1 scum team 1 sk 1 vig
however, since i think that TBG was seen as someone who was a wagon that existed pretty much all day, but wasn't able to be pushed through, it's possible that either an SK, "rival" scum, or a vig would want to off him, thinking he was scum, and KTS seems like a vig shot for daaammmnnnn sure
Killthestory - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie
EspeciallyTheLies - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie
TehBrawlGuy - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie
KTS was killed by Lowell, and Shaziro claimed to kill him too
ETL seems like a shoo-in for a scum kill being active loud and uncompromising in opinions
TBG was an odd kill that, had KTS not been one of the kills, i would have assumed was a vig kill because of his having been wagoned D1
so with Shaziro not claiming a TBG kill, that's weird.
N2
copper223 - Killed Night 2 - Town Neighbor
Expedience alban - Killed Night 2 - Vanilla Townie
Aneninen - Killed Night 2 - Mafia Encryptor
Aneninen was killed by lowell
Shaziro claimed the copper kill as vig.
That leaves Expedience as being a scum AND sk kill?
N3
Lowell - Killed Night 3 - Town 2-shot Vigilante
Ircher - Killed Night 3 - Vanilla Townie
Lowell being a vig which had connected both previous nights, and was out of shots, it makes sense that there's one less kill
ETL and TBG were not both killed by one person or faction, so unless town had TWO vigs that could shoot BOTH N1 and N2, AND there's Anen-scum, AND thre's an SK
then there's a missing kill ALL THREE nights
and if somebody blocked somebody one of the nights in question, you should NOT claim yet. just in case shenanigans somehow DOES mean we should have had 4 kills a night, etc.
but i think this points to Shaziro being SK or scum at least.
Post
Post #3976 (isolation #436) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:09 pm
Postby zakk »
There's the second post. That one took longer to find. The reads list was just a tangent
Basically given what we know about Lowells claims and shaziros claims we can extrapolate what shaziro was lying about as Magna did and arrive at a conclusion rather easily
Post
Post #4020 (isolation #456) » Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:48 am
Postby zakk »
1. why would titus get a scum neapolitan instead of just a role cop (there are already some other
2. her claim of odd-night neapolitan makes perfect setup sense with even-night rolestopper from a setup creation standpoint
3. odd-night anything for scum would be weird, especially since there's already a town even-night flip
so basically she's either WAY MORE LIKELY a goon than a neapolitan... or... she is what she says she is
and if she's a goon then she took a chance on claiming a VT result on cytheflyguy (if he's town) because if he wasn't a VT he would have called her out unless he was scum with her, when she could have easily claimed she was blocked again on N3 which would have been the safe play, and
but simple logic dictates she is what she says she is, especially since she
a. claimed odd-night BEFORE shotty claimed even night
b. claimed AT ALL (she didn't need to in that situation, she did it to get Kop lynched since she didn't believe the 2-shot claim)
so either titus is playing SUPER BALLSY SCUM
or she's just town. and so is cy.
BONUS: me wanting to lynch town the entire game is a SUPER STRONG REASON i'm probably alive right now
titus is town.
and you doubtcasting her at this point doesn't look like a town play.
as best bets to look for scum in during my re-reads.
purple
above: magna SHOULD have already suspected me prominently at this point due to his own PoE
now here's this
In post 4034, MagnaofIllusion wrote:After looking at Vote-Counts and doing some set-up spec I'm open to Liger, Matt or zakk for today's lynch.
Liger I've already said my peace on multiple times and VCA doesn't give me any reason to doubt my read.
Matt shows up lots of places I expect scum to appear (Day 1, 2 and 3 all make reasonable sense for him as scum).
zakk looks like a lock if you have a Titus Town read based on Day 4. Frankly
his play today
also rubs me the wrong way.
here instead he's still pushing liger, and saying i'm only scum if titus is town, even AFTER he said i'm unlikely to be aneninen's parther though he threw in weasel words "i'm on the fence but..." so he could change his mind if he ever wanted to lynch me
and since yes, there has to be scum in the VTs, since there's not enough places to hide otherwise, he's pointing at two VTs (me and projectmatt, of which projectmatt is almost definitely scum) and the other one in the neighborhood, who he has a hell of a reason to throw shade on (bc liger has not talked a lot in the hood so far)
In post 2713, Shaziro wrote:Wow. Want to know how tired I am? I asked Lowell a question and thought I was quoting you. I may as well ask you too though, do you think a Zakk/Shotty team is likely?
Um ... I don't think so? Their interactions don't read as partners to me. Too much back and forth in thread.
Certainly possible they could be opposing scum. I have a solid scum read on Shotty.
Zakk is such a jittery jitterbug that I'm going to say I have a hard time reading his spamming.
Zakk’s arguments spin more and more out of any sort of area of reason
trying to bend over backwards defending Shaz’s stance which doesn’t track to my mind. For example – 3094 is a huge stretch meant to justify why he should be able to lynch Lowell that doesn’t comport with the known facts. Anen’s flip indicates we are very likely in a Mafia / SK multiball set-up and zakk is trying to spin Mafia / Mafia / SK as making any sense.
In post 3213, Shaziro wrote:Sorry, missed that being a question to me. I don't know how setups work to be balanced, my experience with Mafia has been a newbie game and Town of Salem, along with a weird offsite thing. Town having lots of protectives and scum having lots of kills makes sense for balance though, does it not? I would assume 2-3 people per Mafia team, one team at least obviously had day talk so would it make sense for both to have it, in that scenario?
Well here is my problem with your original post – it is based on you presuming that we are in a scenario with two scum factions and a Serial killer (based on what I am reading as your agreement with
zakk’s theory which frankly is batshit crazy
) but you have put zero thought into if said set-up makes any sense. You assess that 2 to 3 Mafia per team seems reasonable.
In post 3214, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Can you see why I am having a hard time reconciling you just floating along following the
pants-on-head train that is zakk’s theory
without even a hint on recognition on your part that maybe he isn’t making sense? Because what does make sense - Mafia of 4 or 5 members, a Serial Killer and a Vig - isn't even being considered.
I've already been claimed as of Day 1 - I'm a Neighbor.
and clearly that's not what i meant and magna knew that
but he's trying to make it look like a) i'm not paying attention, and b) that that's scummy
notice he didn't apologize either for misreading what i meant, he just threw out that attack like nbd and then when i explained it, he moved on without stopping to be like "oh my bad" and kept trying to make me look bad.
so basically:
i'm used to people calling me crazy (which magna has done)
and i'm used to people saying i'm scummy
but magna has consistently done the first one, and kinda skirted around the second one a bit (as shown in
purple
above) but NEVER ACTUALLY PUSHED ME
this is not something you do to someone you think is scum
this is something you do to make sure someone else doesn't get taken seriously
i.e. calling into question their credibility, OVER, and OVER, and OVER
so basically he's been setting me up to get mislynched the entire time
liger is much less likely to be scum now ALSO because they are the two in the neighborhood
and also titus was probably right after all about there being scum in the neighborhood
magna has been setting up liger to be mislynched as well it seems... and unfortunately liger has been complicit by also being a scummy motherfucker
brb re-reading magna/aneninen interactions
but this prooooobably means scum is magna, projectmatt, and egg.
he's putting up 2/3 town and 1/3 scum in his final lynch pool, because he knows even if we lynch right today we are still at the same situation tomorrow after somebody dies.
AND he's still throwing shade on titus who is now CLEARLY town.
i'm feeling pretty good and about 50% less tin-foil hat than normal about this
KTS 
