Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

[Infinity 324]

Because wingback was conf town.

[Shadow_step]

So what?
The fear of being tracked is not more than having a conf town in the game ?

[MathBlade]

The intense ATE sounds very similar tonally to RedCoyote's ISO in this scumgame that I went through. (Infinity's sig doesn't apply here, funnily enough)

VOTE: RedCoyote

I'm leaving so I'd rather put my vote down now so people have the chance to switch.

Lane and MM are townreads. I can see RedCoyote/Fire or Infinity/Shadow potential scumteams. While I don't suspect Farside and Something_smart as much now, if I die tonight, the safe play would be to re-read both of them in light of flips and don't give anyone a free pass.

If I am wrong on Fire which I doubt

This reads like a setup to 1800 -- Bus scum confirm town bus scum. Coast.

Something smart town read. Farside town read.

Scum teams are either FA+Lane/Titus or Infinity/Shadow_step.

[MathBlade]

Like what sketches me out is infinity's answer "feels" right but a cop and a vig and a tracker if all town can't live until the next day or scum is fucked.

Because I know I am town this means because wingback was killed either infinity or fire have to be scum.

[Alchemist21]

♠ ♡ DAY 3 VOTECOUNT ♢ ♣

Fire Assassin(2):

Infinity, mathblade

something_smart(2):

farside, Titus

mathblade:

fire assassin

Not Voting(2): Something_Smart, Shadow_Step

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

The current pot is $1041

The amount to call is $401

Still in the hand: something smart, infinity, titus

Titus, something smart, must act

Spoiler: Betting History

Bet orders:
Ante
Lane bets $210
Fire Assassin raises to $400
Farside folds
Shadow folds
Infinity raises to $401
Fire assassin folds

Day ends in (expired on 2016-08-13 12:30:00)

[MathBlade]

Why? If Infinity is illogically defending MM, shouldn't that make you want to lynch Infinity as opposed to MM? From your POV, either he would either be scum defending a partner or scum defending town so why would it make you want to lynch MM more? Unless you think Infinity is town defending scum in which case, his defense shouldn't affect your read on MM.

By the way, why are you scumreading MM in the first place? The only thing I found was Post 819 and you agreeing with Lane's point in Post 910 after he questioned you about it. That doesn't look like a strong enough read for you to conf-bias Infinity's defense as making MM more scummy. What do you think of MM's response to that point?

MM

-

Infinity

Most likely, scum infinity is defending scum MM because MM has a strong PR.

MM

-

Infinity

Less likely, town infinity is defending scum MM, because he is conf biased, maybe arrogance plays a part in this. Refusal to keep an open mind and just illogicaly defending MM, without any solid reason. Just saying he is newb town......WTF?
From MM's post it's very clear that he is hard town reading Infinity as well, only because Infinity is town reading him. That's an awful reason to town read anyone. He doesn't have a problem with Infinity buddying with him so much for no reason whatsoever. I can't imagine a town MM being okay with that.

MM

-

Infinty

least likely, it doesn't make sense for scum infinity to white knight a town player who is scum read by majority of the players, he will get lynched sooner or later and scum infinity doesn't get much(if any) town creds after the MM flip. I don't see much scum motivation behind this.

Which is why I'd rather lynch MM today.

How have your reads changed from this post shadow_step with me being confirmed town and UNCC'd tracker?

[Infinity 324]

So what?
The fear of being tracked is not more than having a conf town in the game ?

Yeah

Think about it this way, since fire claimed vig he had an out if he was tracked to a kill (not in the case of wingback, but still). So he's unlikely to be tracked. So he could do the kill and not be scared of a tracker.

In general a 1-shot track is not the scariest thing in the world for scum.

[Something_Smart]

What is this game I can't even.

I kind of want to just find a strong townread and sheep them, but my strongest townread is Titus (who's voting me ) and I'm even having doubts about that slot.

The good news is that there's probably only 2 scum given that no quickhammer has occurred. And I'm still somewhat confident that farside is scum (or at least needs pressure), so:

VOTE: farside

What do people think about my points against MM/FA? I thought they were pretty noteworthy but people seem to just be ignoring them.

I think I understand the BBT kill. It strikes me as kind of a "don't rock the boat" kill, to eliminate a strong player who hadn't really contributed much this far.
It reminds me of the droog kill in this game.
And I think what it suggests is that town's collective reads are way off, as they were in that game. I'm very disappointed that my MM/FA theory didn't end up being true, and I think that flip means that MM is town too. I definitely want to take a closer look at farside once again.

@Shadow: if only one person wins a hand in any given day, they will be bulletproof the following night. That's the mechanic that Fire wants to (ab)use by throwing hands to townreads.

Were you scum reading MM based on their interactions only or anything else?

It was mostly interactions. I am terrible at reading newbies, so I was really hesitant to commit to a strong read on him.

[farside22]

And something smart still presents no case against.
And avoids my questions.


Just saying

[Something_Smart]

Sorry lol. My case in a nutshell is that you don't just get to walk away free after mislynching RC like that.

What questions did you want answered?

[farside22]

Sorry lol. My case in a nutshell is that you don't just get to walk away free after mislynching RC like that.

What questions did you want answered?

I asked you how often you see scum pushing case vs sheeping votes.

[MathBlade]

So what?
The fear of being tracked is not more than having a conf town in the game ?

Yeah

Think about it this way, since fire claimed vig he had an out if he was tracked to a kill (not in the case of wingback, but still). So he's unlikely to be tracked. So he could do the kill and not be scared of a tracker.

In general a 1-shot track is not the scariest thing in the world for scum.

Normally I would agree with you except for the fact Fire has been claiming to shoot multiple people, none of whom they have actually shot. If that happens and I track them to the kill I would be screaming bloody murder for their lynch because it would be a confirmed guilty.

[Infinity 324]

Hmm?

[MathBlade]

Sorry lol. My case in a nutshell is that you don't just get to walk away free after mislynching RC like that.

What questions did you want answered?

Farside smart -- I think you are both town.

@Smart a mislynch is all of town's fault always. Unless you have specific scummy posts and some sort of logical reasoning more than what I have posted not going to consider farside.

@Fire -- How is it relevant how often something happens? That is gambler's fallacy. What needs to be determined is what happened here.

And until someone can explain to me why 3 PRs are still alive I don't want to consider anything outside the PR claims.

[MathBlade]

Infinity bear with me phone posting

An assassin walks into town and calls you all out to play a poker game with me.
Are you all yellow or what?

This post here is either a crumb for a vig or a crumb of scum faking vig and I don't know which.

[MathBlade]

Quote wall of saying "no evidence" (which evidence would be feedback of some sort or what?), You then state I have a case and that its bullshit and fabricated, and I don't have any reasons. WHat?

YOU SAID I HAD A CASE. YOU CAN SAY ITS A BAD CASE BUT WHAT DO YOU MEAN ITS BULLSHIT?

I am so done with you.
Lynching MM today, shooting you tonight.
Yes, I have a gun.

You are dying.

Threatens to shoot infinity here. Didn't happen.

[MathBlade]

Like you could claim full blown cop who has a innocent on mm and I would call bullshit and still shoot you.

Threatens to shoot a cop :/

Like what kind of vig threatens this?

If infinity is doing something stupid: You work to correct that stupid.

[MathBlade]

1) you could have shot night 1
So this excuse just looks like crap.

Why would I shot night 1 when reads are the weakest, I subbed in when we were half way through day 1 and you think I would be confident enough to shoot then? I am a 1-shot. Why would I waste my shot so early when my reads were just forming.

Because you said you would.

[MathBlade]

Hmm?

So because they have a repeated track record of not doing what they said they would do:

If I hypothetically track them and it is not to who they say. I consider that provable lying.
I consider provable liars scum. Especially if the person I hypothetically track them to is dead.

[Infinity 324]

Infinity bear with me phone posting

An assassin walks into town and calls you all out to play a poker game with me.
Are you all yellow or what?

This post here is either a crumb for a vig or a crumb of scum faking vig and I don't know which.

You mean the "assassin" part? I think that comes from his name...

PEdit: Fire didn't say he would shoot until d2. So that's kind of irrelevant

[Something_Smart]

Sorry lol. My case in a nutshell is that you don't just get to walk away free after mislynching RC like that.

What questions did you want answered?

I asked you how often you see scum pushing case vs sheeping votes.

I don't know, offhand I'd say that scum push cases over sheeping them more than town on average. It's wildly dependent on the player and the situation though.

Sorry lol. My case in a nutshell is that you don't just get to walk away free after mislynching RC like that.

What questions did you want answered?

Farside smart -- I think you are both town.

@Smart a mislynch is all of town's fault always. Unless you have specific scummy posts and some sort of logical reasoning more than what I have posted not going to consider farside.

Not when the town is willing to trust one player's ability to read another, as I did with farside.

[farside22]

I'm starting to think math is scum now.

I'm up later then I should be so I maybe misremembering something

[Titus]

Infinity bear with me phone posting

An assassin walks into town and calls you all out to play a poker game with me.
Are you all yellow or what?

This post here is either a crumb for a vig or a crumb of scum faking vig and I don't know which.

Why would you out this?

[Infinity 324]

Titus...fire already claimed...

[MathBlade]

Infinity bear with me phone posting

An assassin walks into town and calls you all out to play a poker game with me.
Are you all yellow or what?

This post here is either a crumb for a vig or a crumb of scum faking vig and I don't know which.

Why would you out this?

I am discussing my thoughts towards the authenticity of both Fire and Infinity's claims.

To me it does not make sense to leave three power roles alive. Anyone not voting in me/Infinity/Fire has to explain that. Granted I know I am town but from an outside POV I am still an option to be lynched.

A confirmed town is less valuable a shot because we were already shooting ourselves in the foot with these mislynches.

We need to get our shit together now.