Micro 640: Perfect Cherry Blossom (Game Over)

[pieguyn]

so my goal this game is to figure out which of {zmuffin, Luna, Wisdom, DLA} drew town role PMs. beeboy would have been on here, but after ruthlessly betraying me in his first post of the game, he can go screw himself.

yes, DLA, you're on my list, I haven't forgotten you from Saki. ~

[pieguyn]

Also I literally almost out'd from this game because i wasn't sure if i was going to have time for this, but i'll try, just don't expect me to be super active.

join the club. I almost didn't even join because I'm in desperate need of a mafia break, but instead I just decided this would be my last game.

[pieguyn]

TNE is particularly adorable this game.

[pieguyn]

Are you not interested by my vote?

I am, I'd just rather watch and observe what shakes out of it by itself than going out of my way to question it.

if you want to explain it then by all means go ahead.

[pieguyn]

Ok so Pie doesn't want to "figure out" I am town because she knows I am the biggest threat to her scum team and by town reading me it will be harder to discredit me later in the game when I have nailed everyone's alignment.

I can't parse whether this is a serious line of reasoning or not.

[pieguyn]

Edo too

don't agree on either read so far. explain?

[pieguyn]

vote: beeboy

x

[pieguyn]

to be clear, my vote is 100% serious.

[pieguyn]

sorry, I've had all of my focus on another game the past few days (which fortunately just ended).

I'm going back to sleep and then I'll post here.

[pieguyn]

I'm condensing this into one post because there isn't much to comment on.

beeboy, I'm going to be blunt: I'm not in the mood to deal with you being a fucking idiot. I asked you if your post was serious or not specifically because I couldn't parse whether it was "shitposting" or if you were actually being serious about it. you proceeded to tell me it was, in fact serious. I would rather you 1. quit dicking around and play the game seriously, and 2. make it explicit whether you're seriously claiming mason or if it's a joke or a gambit or whatever, since my read on you outside of that is a scum read, and no I don't particularly give a fuck if you think it's a good idea to keep continuing it if you're not one for *insert shit reason here*. clear it up now or desist.

Edos: I didn't go out of my way to question your vote because I didn't feel like going out of my way to influence RVS in a major way, simple as that; I decided I'd approach it by sitting back and seeing if you explained it at some point unprompted, or how other people would react to it, or things like that. I find that a lot of the time if I start jumping at shit in RVS it does nothing but cause a huge distraction, which while that in itself can be productive for generating reads, I just had no energy and didn't feel like it; I find it equally as effective for my own reads to just wait until people start doing things I find significantly alignment-indicative.

I don't like the way that Edos switched from me onto Vedith. in the first place, your reason for voting me was actually pretty serious as far as RVS reads go; why would you give that up to push a smaller wagon, based on what only could have been troll/non-serious posts, without getting what you were looking for from me first (there is no way you could have, since I hadn't posted anything at all in between those posts)?

DLA is a slight town read.

I'd like if people voting on the Vedith wagon could talk to me about their reasoning for scum reading him; I haven't really seen any depth to any of the reads there and rather than attacking all of it at once, I'd love for people to talk to me and get my head in a place where I can engage with the game.

[pieguyn]

another thing about Vedith: his read on Wisdom is hilariously wrong but I think it actually shows a pretty OK depth of thought as far as early-game reads go. I'd like if people could let me know if/why they disagree.

[pieguyn]

2. I have no reason to go through it with you. You aren't likely to join your own wagon. If others are interested in specifics I can elaborate, but I don't think they will be.

I'd like specifics!

also, re: your other post, I wouldn't classify any of my first posts in the game as "content", nor were they intended as content.

[pieguyn]

I am sorry about dicking around earlier I genuinely feel bad right now. I would love to respond to your post in a more game progressing manner but the only reason I think you are reading me as scum based on what you have posted is that I rubbed you the wrong the way which I feel bad about but I don't feel compelled to explicitly tell you the contents of my role pm as a result when I think the ambiguity would be good for Luna and I.

my problem with you is that you're a player who, as scum, finds it difficult to fake reasonable reads/thought processes, and as such, when you're scum, your reads can often end up being completely ridiculous. there are points when you can do OK at it, but in my experience with you whenever you're scum you rely on people town reading you for "genuineness" or "newbtown" and ignoring what the reasoning behind your reads actually is, and as such at some point or another you can't keep up faking good reads, but to the contrary, if you're making actual good points that are reasonable I take it as a pretty good sign that you're town (which is how I got the early read on you I had in magical girl game).

now let's apply this to your play here... so far, all you've done has been shit-posting. even outside of the fact that your initial argument against me wasn't serious, your only scum read has been me, because of the way you were shit-posting and my reaction to it, which is a really poor reason that has no depth to it. you haven't done any scum hunting or attempted to form any scum reads outside of this.

your two town reads were DLA for gut and Edos for "being the first person who tried to do things this game", which while there isn't anything glaringly bad about it, both of these town reads are really easy and again have no depth to them, which doesn't give me any reason to question my assessment of the rest of your posts.

so, in general, I'm seeing your "fake claim mason and shitpost the entire game" approach here as something you'd do as scum as a crutch to generate reasonable-sounding content, and I don't think you're forming reads in a compelling way like you do when you're town. hence why if you're town I want you to quit playing like this and actually play the game seriously.

[pieguyn]

I have no patience for this: Luna and bee, are you masons?

Yes

also: the problem with this is that after early game where you fucked around and called a post that wasn't serious serious, I have absolutely no reason to believe that you're seriously claiming this.

I don't give a fuck if you think it's somehow advantageous to "keep it ambiguous" for whatever reason. you need to either make it 100% explicit, in a way where there's absolutely no doubt about it and you can't go back later and claim "lel I was joking", or step the fuck back and retract it immediately, and if you don't do this I'll lynch you.

[pieguyn]

Take wisdom; vedith has been voting wisdom the entire game, ever since his RVS/"Serious" vote in his first post. Since then it's developed into his main read with no major competition bar me. However, he explains his vote as being based in the more recent fake-hammer. To me this seems opportunistic, like he's looking for scummy behavior to justify his vote rather than scum.

I don't think this is a good reason for scum reading him; it's a fairly common thing to place an RVS vote and then start seriously scum reading that person later.

Read through his posts there, 66-97, there's nothing to change his opinion? Is he threatening to vote me because of 96? That's a weak reason if I ever heard one.

I did this, and this was my interpretation of it: after 66, Edos and you voted him. he came back in 86, noticed the wagon on him, noticed Wisdom asking to hammer him, and interacted with Wisdom first. after he was done with that, he went back in 95 and responded to your 78. I don't see anything incongruous here.

I don't see anything incongruous in his treatment of you in 97 either. he sees himself being wagoned, he thinks there could be scum on it, he sees your vote on him, he tries to engage you on it and then you shut him off and claim you're not interested in discussing your vote with him. I don't think it's unreasonable that he would see this as malicious. have you never had games where you've been wagoned for what you feel are bullshit reasons and wanted to scum hunt off the wagon, cut through it all, force everyone on the wagon into explaining themselves so you can clear up why it's wrong?

[pieguyn]

Actually before I go to sleep, Pie what scum games of mine have you read? I can only think of borderlands Mafia which idk if that counts for anything considering it was secret bastard and multiball.

Errant's rap battle game where I was in a hydra with bork and you were scum, and an osu! game where I ignored the fact that the arguments you were making were bad and town read you anyway for the exact basis I mentioned in that post (don't recall the name of the game).

[pieguyn]

also @DLA, to expand further on a few things:

I fucking hate when people refuse to interact with me because "you're scum, I'll interact with other people about you but I won't interact with you". it's a bad mindset that doesn't lead to clear discussion. what you did to him was basically exactly that, and when he asked you what you thought of his Wisdom vote you continued doing it.

him taking issue with it isn't malicious, it's the correct reaction. also, on his Wisdom read: "he's much more lazy as town" is a premise that I think is thoroughly wrong, but as far as actually forming reads goes, "he's much more lazy as town thus I think his reaction to my 'lynch' was a forced attempt to look town" isn't much of a logical leap at all and ignoring the timing of his vote or whether it was done in RVS or not, I'm interested in what you think about his actual reasoning, too.

[pieguyn]

Actually before I go to sleep, Pie what scum games of mine have you read? I can only think of borderlands Mafia which idk if that counts for anything considering it was secret bastard and multiball.

mostly out of curiosity, what was the point of this line of questioning, btw?

[pieguyn]

it's page 7 in a micro, but this is a pretty information-heavy game, so I'd expect that by now you'd have more than just vague gut reads. what do you think of my points on Edos and Vedith?

why don't you think that a scum Luna would play along with you fake claiming mason with her? I'm not exactly sure why you think that the fake mason claim would result in her "tying herself to you", given... it's a fake claim and all. it strikes me as something she'd do for fun regardless of her alignment.

[pieguyn]

Your points on Edo felt meh, he moved his vote in RVS without much thought or reason I don't see that as something that is odd.

I believe his votes on both me and Vedith were serious, not RVS.

I don't agree that Luna wouldn't do it as scum, but w/e.

[pieguyn]

I would vote TNE. I would not vote Luna.

I would prefer Edos to either of those, I think.

[pieguyn]

she feels more aggressive than i'm used to her being

not sure what to make of it so far, so i'm kind of just waiting to see where she goes from here

I'm curious to know where you're getting this impression of my play from. you're correct to say that I prefer to be in the forefront and generating discussion, when I actually have strong leads on things that I can point out and generate discussion about and I have enough energy to do it. I'm a lot more ambivalent on it in RVS/early game, since there isn't much of a reason for it and forcing discussion that early in the game can easily backfire: what happened at the start of Forest Fire and my early read on Cake-kun in the summer waltz game are two examples of that approach early game going horribly wrong OTOH.

I'd also like to hear more about Wisdom's read on me.

[pieguyn]

You also wanted my reasons for voting Vedith. Here's a running list.
1. Initially, it was because I wanted to get him to actually do something useful.
2. His attitude and the time and still now suggested scum to me.
3. !!wagons!!
4. He has yet to really do anything "useful" besides call Wisdom scum and defend himself against DLA (I'll note the defense was unprompted, but that's not alignment indicative).
5. His scumread on Wisdom is pretty bad. Like, really bad. Also his only scumreads are on people who have attacked him, which is also bad. It shows he isn't making an effort to do anything himself.

can you elaborate more on points 2 and 5 here?

I have the exact opposite impression of his attitude that you seem to have; I think the way he's continuing to be so openly antagonistic after getting near universally pressured for it, which he's continued to do even in his most recent post to DLA, looks town, and I think his conviction looks town, and in general I think it looks a lot more like town hoping to make a huge splash and sort through his wagon and get a push going elsewhere as opposed to scum just flinging shit everywhere and seeing what sticks. and I've explained what I think about his Wisdom read already: his premise is wrong but I don't think his thought process is unreasonable, given the premise. do you disagree, or is there more to it, or... ?

the point about him not doing anything useful is more OK, I guess, but I don't think he's the kind of player who does anything particularly "useful" or forms really well thought-out reads regardless of alignment.

[pieguyn]

When a player isn't under pressure and I get a scumread, I will make a case. I will do so to persuade the other players that I am correct. If the person I am accusing wants to refute it, so be it, they are welcome to. If I am joining an established wagon, I will not make as strong a case, as a case already tends to exist in the gameplay. The precise problem I have with the way Vedith did it is that he said: "DLA - Go through this."

given how you've described your own play here, do you think it's that unreasonable that a town-Vedith would see it and think "oh, this person jumped onto my wagon and didn't give much of a reason for it; I should force him to explain it so I can figure out whether he's just town or he's taking advantage of everyone else pushing me"? I don't think it is and I tend to react in a similar way when I get wagoned as town and feel like some of the votes on me are bullshit (either in an attempt to sort town/scum or otherwise try to get people talking about it so I can convince them they're wrong).

I don't think that even *if* Vedith is scum, he's scum for this; I think if he's scum the way he's going about this is more an attempt at emulating this behavior than any attempt at misdirection, and thus it's a null tell. is there more to this that I'm not getting?

[pieguyn]

what little motivation I had actually went bye bye :/

if this was in response to me, I don't intend to lynch you for lurking; I would, on the other hand, lynch you for continuing to do this and not doing anything even while you are here.

1. can you explain your Vedith vote?

2. do you have any reads outside of Vedith?

[pieguyn]

I think Luna might actually be town. my reason for it is probably really underhanded, but it is what it is.

I still don't think Vedith is scum.

I'll respond to other things when I'm less busy, but Wisdom, I want an explanation for your read on me and I'd like if you could explain your beeboy read too.

[pieguyn]

I know that the following is true: after our last game where Luna was an SK, we had a conversation in postgame where she told me she was really worried about people overestimating her and mislynching her, and that she was really inclined to just retire with a 0% mislynch record because she prides herself on having never been mislynched and she doesn't want to have to deal with things like that and generally just hasn't been enjoying the game as much anymore. what's she done here? she's completely seized up and is afraid to do anything at all for fear that people will lynch her or that even if they don't it'll be largely useless. she hasn't tried to explain any reads, which is about the first thing you need to do in order to even try to look good as scum. so that's normal (and is in fact something I can empathize with because I've felt a similar way in a game before when I was disengaged and felt like if I pushed who I wanted they would turn around and lynch me, so I just kinda fell away and lurked).

to continue with this, if she was scum, I don't think she would have completely seized up like this, because she'd have no reason to give a shit. she'd just play normally and if she gets lynched, who fucking cares, being lynched as scum is normal. she isn't the kind of player who has an overwhelming enough amount of pride in her scum game to get in arms over taking a lynch as scum, so I don't think it would be coming from that angle. and she isn't a player who has difficulty faking explanations for reads as scum, either.

there is the possibility that she's faking all of this, but again if I assess her play... I can usually tell when she's playing an "I have this idea of something outside of my usual play that people would expect me to do as town so I'm going to try to emulate it" form of scum game, since she can't do things of that general form seamlessly as scum, and I don't get the impression that it's what she's doing here. this is mostly just a lot of gut, but if I could try to put words to it, the key to this is that it doesn't come off as *overplayed*.

so really, just meh. I could be reading _way_ too much into her posts, but the short of it is I at the least don't think the way she's playing this is more likely to come from scum-her. if I was to lynch her, it would be for something else.

I still think the reasons for scum reading Vedith are largely dumb and semantic, btw.

[pieguyn]

actually, after writing all of that out, I've talked myself into it.

I don't want a Luna lynch and I am pretty fucking interested in what Wisdom has to say when he gets back.

[pieguyn]

Christ I hate both Wisdom and beeboy's responses to me, but I get stronger pings from Wisdom's and I have no idea if it's worth switching.

[pieguyn]

I don't know if I can derail Vedith from my position, so instead I'll ask: @DLA, would you be open to a beeboy vote?

[pieguyn]

thats bullshit

If she wants not to be mislynched the best thing she can do is explain things

first off, this is a really bullshit argument because it ignores the fact that duh, Luna isn't explaining anything because she has no time for it and does not want to do things when she feels no one will care anyway. you trying to flip this around is really horrible, and the fact that the entirety of your scum reads so far have been me for being "off" and Luna for lurking does not make me feel any better about it.

second off, EXPLAIN YOUR READS ON ME AND BEEBOY. I have asked you three times now.

[pieguyn]

I don't see how it is wrong I can take these 2 pieces of info and assume you could just be apathetic scum and you not explaining reads is a town tell like pie is suggesting.

now, for you: if you think my argument was "she's not explaining reads hence she's town" then you straight up didn't read my post.

the entire point of the post is that the entire basis behind her being apathetic in the way that she is here straight up doesn't exist if she's scum. she's not apathetic for "no time", she's apathetic because she feels that from her current position, she can't do anything to get people to listen to her/avoid being lynched/etc, which is not something she would need to worry about as scum, and as for the point that she could be manipulating her meta, I have considered this and I don't think it's what she's doing here, which again you would know if you actually read my post; are there certain posts of hers that come off as off to you or... ?

[pieguyn]

Also 331 feels like is intended to throw shade on me rather than talk with me

I think your argument against her is a complete load of shit, so of course I'm going to "throw shade" at it. moreover, you clearly have not intended to talk to me at all because I have asked you to explain your reads on me/beeboy several times and you haven't done it, so... what exactly did you expect?

that said, if you suddenly start wanting to talk, I'm all ears.

[pieguyn]

Im like 95% sure this is scum pie

you say things like this and ignore me the entire game, then you wonder why I don't try to talk to you. your approach to me makes absolutely no sense.

[pieguyn]

like seriously Wisdom, the more I think about this the more it makes absolutely no sense. how exactly do you see "going out of my way to ask you about your reads three different times" and come out of that with "not wanting to talk"?

I would expect that town-you would want to be able to find town-me so that we could work together, and thus if you had issue with my posts you'd want to interact with me about it, try to sort me out, or anything along those lines, and this was the entire point of me poking you about your me/beeboy reads all the way up to here: try to work out my reservations with you before launching into a push on you. you've straight up ignored me the entire fucking game despite the fact that your entire reason for scum reading me up to here was "she feels off from our last game", which is nowhere near the kind of strong read that would warrant the usual kind of "ignoring someone because you don't want to interact with scum" treatment that early in the game.

[pieguyn]

I 100% agree with zmuffin's assessment of beeboy's posts, ftr.

[pieguyn]

Pie you are using the reasons Luna bombed my slot for in Summer Waltz btw lol

I'm going to straight up admit that I wasn't following her interactions with you that game at all; I left you entirely to her. I'm also reading your posts in that game again and they generally make a hell of a lot more sense than your posts here.

[pieguyn]

that's not what I'm arguing at all.

tehe, this is fun ~

[pieguyn]

Wisdom, am I meant to take your Edos vote as you saying you no longer have strong feelings I'm scum?

[pieguyn]

Edos, what is your beeboy read and would you be open to lynching him today?

[pieguyn]

I don't believe that beeboy's resigned self-vote in 392 comes from a position of having a likely-town/unlynchable role. if he's going to attempt to claim that his role makes him town, I want him to just full claim.

[pieguyn]

add to that that if he tries to claim something that isn't actually a town role, he needs to be lynched into the fucking ground.

trying to soft "lel I have a town role" and hope that people either lynch his counterwagon on impulse or try to form a wagon elsewhere is something I absolutely could see him doing as scum, and if it isn't really a town role, he always has "it was a gambit" or "I genuinely believed my role made me town" or any # of other excuses to hopefully get out of it in similar method to how he deliberately does dumb shit to get people to handwave his posts as "it's just derp town".

[pieguyn]

/whistle

why do you think that soft-claim was town again, Edos?

p-edit: jesus fucking christ, DLA. what is your actual issue with the way I'm going about this?

[pieguyn]

DLA, think about it: beeboy, if town, has already confirmed or at least hinted to scum that he has a PR of some kind. so what's the point of him withholding what his role actually is? he has already basically claimed PR.

I think he hoped to soft "lel I have a town role", wasn't expecting someone to call him out on it (because of people like ... you ... assuming he was town via the soft) and how has no idea what he should actually claim. I don't really care if he or anyone else thinks something along the lines of "withholding role info is ~such a good thing~", because it's not. someone being PR or not is already the majority of the relevant info scum needs to plan things around, so at this point, if his goal was to withhold info, he's already failed. making it explicit what his role is is beneficial because 1. if he *actually* does have a town role me, zmuffin, Luna can take it in stride and push elsewhere, and 2. it eliminates any possibility for him claiming later and drawing flak for it because "that's not actually a town role".

in reality, it isn't beneficial for him to keep doing this, unless he's scum.

[pieguyn]

Pie your full of shit if you think me full claiming is optimal play considering I am not being lynched

if you don't full claim, I lynch you, and I'm more than certain I have enough numbers for it.

so no, this "I'm not being lynched" excuse doesn't hold water, and if you believed you weren't being lynched what was even the point in soft-claiming?

[pieguyn]

like holy name of christ WTF am I even reading?

[pieguyn]

I feel like pie is chasing dead ends and knows it.

what is this even about? do you think that I'm incapable of fabricating pushes elsewhere as scum or... ?

[pieguyn]

if you don't full claim, I lynch you, and I'm more than certain I have enough numbers for it.

Who are you counting on?

Vedith and you. am I incorrect in assuming that if it comes down to it, you'd be willing to vote with me?

not to mention that if zmuffin starts going aggressive mode, it's likely that he'll be able to bring someone else into this, too.

[pieguyn]

why the fuck did I sign up for this game.

[pieguyn]

Pie, why do you think lynch a soft claimed PR day 1 is a viable strategy? In almost all cases this is completely misguided. There will always be time in future days, in addition to added information. If he isn't scum, it is also likely that he'll be a night target, otherwise he'll have more to share in the future that'll make it easier to verify the claim than now.

Nothing good would come from a full role claim and I think you'd know this as well.

for the record, this is just all sorts of wrong for all sorts of theory reasons.

but whatever, you're obviously not going to listen to anything I write about it anyway.

[pieguyn]

can ANYONE explain based on beeboy's PLAY

[pieguyn]

can ANYONE explain based on beeboy's PLAY why they have a town read on him?

zmuffin is fucking right about his posts: nothing he's done has been town and the way he's been pushing reads this game is really strongly indicative of him as scum. I am more than capable of going in-depth on this, if anyone would so much as give a shit.

[pieguyn]

Pie, why do you think lynch a soft claimed PR day 1 is a viable strategy? In almost all cases this is completely misguided. There will always be time in future days, in addition to added information. If he isn't scum, it is also likely that he'll be a night target, otherwise he'll have more to share in the future that'll make it easier to verify the claim than now.

Nothing good would come from a full role claim and I think you'd know this as well.

let me try to break this down a bit more so you can hopefully see where I'm coming from here.

Spoiler: theory wall

first off, my strategy isn't "lynch a soft claimed PR", it's "force the soft claimed PR into making it explicit what his role is and then deciding whether to lynch it or not". the whole thing about whether he'd be lynched or not is an excuse he's giving to not have to full claim; me bringing it up was me making it clear that if he doesn't full claim now I'll force him into doing it either way.

second, if he's town, then him full claiming or not has no effect on how likely it'll be that he's a night target: as I said, him being a PR is already all the info scum needs to know they need to do something about him at night. this is a key point that you're missing here, and I don't see how him not having full claimed interferes with this in any way... at the point where he soft claimed, he _already gave scum all the info they need to play around him at night_, whether this be them NK'ing or RB'ing him or whatever. in fact I would actually make the argument that if town, by keeping his role hidden, he's drawing unnecessary fire from TOWN power roles which could be better used elsewhere, but this is tangential to my actual point.

third, you're suggesting that it's more optimal to verify the claim in the future than now, but this isn't the case. beeboy has claimed, in no uncertain terms, that he has a town role. thus all that needs to be done to verify the role is have him actually claim it, if it's a town role then good he's town, if it's not than he's probably scum but in the worst-case scenario if he has a reasonable-enough justification for it then it's exactly as you said: can still be verified or not in the future. that's a mostly error-proof method of verifying the claim, without bothering to wait around, with no ambiguity... it isn't good, theory-wise, to just leave things ambiguous like this: it's much better to make things explicit so that you can actually analyze it objectively either way, and move on from it with the additional info gained as soon as possible. if he is scum, it's better that we figure it out now instead of waiting around until D2 before assessing the claim and figuring it out, and if he's town then again it's better that we resolve it now so we can move on from him.

there's also that, in practical terms, the kind of "deal with it later" thing you're saying we should do here just doesn't work... suppose (this is the most extreme scenario) that we leave him alive and then for instance some iteration of {me, Luna, zmuffin} dies N1/N2. if he's scum, do you really think that after something like that happens the players left will actually evaluate the claim objectively and lynch him? in a perfect gamestate, something like this would work, but in reality it's just too risky and unnecessary, not when the alternative is being able to confirm it right now at the cost of him outing whatever his precious role is which in reality isn't any cost at all now that he's outed that he has a PR to scum...

so no, I'm not "ignoring" shit. people just see a soft claim and auto-assume it's town for whatever shit reason. I would like if you could try to break this down and try to explain to me where I'm going wrong here, because I'm not and I think if you think about it you'll be able to see my viewpoint on this.

[pieguyn]

if we're looking elsewhere, can we lynch Wisdom? based on the last page alone, we have enough numbers for it.

[pieguyn]

vote: Wisdom

[pieguyn]

They're confirmed not-mafia. You think folks are gonna call you out as SK?

I think Luna is worried about something along the lines of an RB.

[pieguyn]

I agree with Edos, I like a Wisdom shot.

the emotional part of me wants a Luna shot just because it makes me sad seeing her this worried and paranoid over being mislynched, but that would completely backfire from both standpoints *if* day opens and beeboy is the only one dead, so I don't even know.

[pieguyn]

How is an RB relevant?

if people speculate one (or another method of blocking the kill) and/or one flips, then she becomes not-clear if beeboy is the only death overnight, even if she doesn't die.

this is obviously moot if it's a day role, but I took beeboy's recent posts as implicit confirmation that it's a night role; if he wants to correct me, he can.

[pieguyn]

My flavor doesn't specify day or night. :b

you should double check this with GIF, and if you can use it during the day you should.

either way, Wisdom absolutely needs to be shot or lynched.

[pieguyn]

But I don't see the merits in me choosing a lynch given my low confidence levels right now and I also don't see the merits in accelerating us forward 1 lynch in hopes a kill gets blocked somehow.

Like I guess there is the merit of Luna, Pie and Zmuffin being able to scum hunt knowing I am town and I guess I am also removed from the game but that feels meh.

Like I don't know where I am going wrong in my thought process because everyone wants me to shoot ._.

I don't think it's necessary to shoot right at this instant, you just need to shoot at some point or another. I meant that if you have the option to use it during the day, that's better than using it during the night since it wouldn't be able to be interfered with.

[pieguyn]

vote: Edos

I am not in any mental state where I can do more right now. I will be back probably tomorrow.

Edos dies today either way.

[pieguyn]

I'm waiting for pie's reply.

well first off, DLA outright flipped Reimu already and he wasn't scum. just based on that, it's fairly obvious flavor in this game doesn't work the same way it did in the last game.

even outside of that, though, I more likely than not wouldn't pay too much attention to it - you've already said you'd disagree with it so I assume you know why it's wrong already. outside of the fact that it wouldn't be guaranteed that flavor would work the same way even without the Reimu flip, I have it on record GIF is not above giving scum roles that are capable of confirming their "safe" flavor (source: conversation we had around the time we modded Frog mafia).

[pieguyn]

Hey Pie, I know you were asked and I know you are just answering, but god that post.

Edo is scum, y/n?
Muffin is scum y/n?

I have you as a strong town read based off numerous things, especially the fact that there's just literally no way you and Edosurist are scum together based on the early game stuff, while him and Muffin played off each other in a particularly ugly way, but... hmmm, maybe I should just showcase this if I wake up dead tomorrow.

Edos is scum, I don't think zmuffin is. I would look in {Vedith, you} for Edos' partner.

[pieguyn]

actually, if you want to talk about NKA, where is your assumption that "scum would kill one of me/zmuffin if we were both town" coming from?

I don't like focusing on NKA especially with just one kill, but if I was to try to look at the DLA kill, I would think the opposite you seem to think: assuming you're town, my guess is that it makes the most sense from a weaker scum team hoping to keep you/zmuffin alive and generating noise they could hide behind, and Vedith would account for why I'm not dead over DLA if we want to read that far into it. I'm aware of "scum would be worried about us rolling them", but that isn't a thing when based on how D1 went that would be really unlikely: you two aren't going to go at each other's throats D1 only to flip and find each other as town D2.

I think your zmuffin-vedith theory is incorrect, and it seems to imply that zmuffin, if scum here, is completely resigned to being dead at some point after so much as seeing you push him on D1, which goes against everything I know about how he plays scum: self-sacrificing is the absolute last thing he would think about doing. he wouldn't respond to that by going "fuck it I'm probably dead" and setting a partner up for endgame, he'd say "ICE might be pushing me but fuck if I'm letting myself get lynched just like that" and attempt to outplay you on day play, and I'm not sure where you're getting the idea he would play this the way you're claiming he would so I'd like if you could talk about this more.

also, @beeboy: I don't really mind your posts this game day as much as I minded your posts D1. I would need to think more about it before voting you, not just "instavote" like you seem to be worried about.

[pieguyn]

I'm literally just waiting for a hammer.

also, to be clear @beeboy, do not shoot if Edos flips town. if Edos flips scum a Luna shot is OK (though I still don't think it's particularly likely she's scum).

[pieguyn]

hi math.

I feel mostly certain that your slot is town (I just need to think about some things a bit more so I can be absolutely positive about it), so can you walk me through your logic behind there being no scum team including Vedith? my initial impression of the ICE/zmuffin interactions seems to be the opposite of yours, and that is the main thing I'm hoping to sort through today because if they both can't be scum and I'm right about you being town Vedith is guaranteed.

I don't really have any answer for your question. I never had much of a reason to go out of my way to interact with either of them, so I didn't.

[pieguyn]

also, two more things otoh:

1. we should probably massclcaim today.

2. ICE, I want you to enumerate your read on zmuffin in full detail. I do not want you to campaign to me, I do not want you to go out of your way to "convince" me or try to make points that I'll be receptive to or anything along those lines, I just want straight up the entirety of the logic behind your read. I am specifying this since I know you think "campaigning" is a better way of convincing people and I suspect it's what you were trying to do yesterday, but that isn't an effective way of convincing me if that's what you're trying to do since I heavily rely on directly assessing people's reads in order to form reads on them and that approach only serves to obfuscate this.

at the moment, I think you're scum, but it isn't a cut-and-dry scenario like PYP6 was, so I'm hoping that *if* I'm wrong about zmuffin/you this will help clear up some of the issues I'm having with your posts.

[pieguyn]

why do you think mathblade is likely town

Luna's posts + I think her replace-out is pretty good indication that I was correct that she legitimately just couldn't deal with this game.

I also think math's first post in this game was about 100% more coherent than anything they did in the entirety of magical girl game (even if I think they're thoroughly wrong with the "called X scum but voted Y" logic it isn't something that I look at and think someone would have to be insane to even think), but it's mostly based on Luna.

[pieguyn]

I already explained the general mindset I was getting from her posts in 290/subsequent posts, which should answer both of those questions. I'm aware that happened early game, but everything that's happened after that has continued to support it.

I might break her posts down in more depth sometime later and explain in full where my read on her is coming from. ignoring math's posts, are there any of Luna's posts that you took issue with?

p-edit: it seemed fairly obvious to me beeboy would be the kill last night. I don't really know if math assuming the same means anything.

[pieguyn]

I mean, as testimony to why beeboy's role made him the obvious kill, even without him proving it I figured it was unlikely to be a fake claim, and I had a strong scum read on him based on his play back on D1.

p-edit: @zmuffin.

[pieguyn]

Pie you think I am town and Vedith is scum who do you think is the other scum?

ICE.

[pieguyn]

is 831 directed at me?

there is nothing "policy" about it, it's literally just "if you're town and zmuffin/ICE contains at most one scum he's the only one left". I'm mostly asking since I'm not seeing zmuffin/ICE as partners at this point, so I want to know specifically what interactions are making you rule Vedith out as part of a team (not so much your individual read on him - I don't find the point for him being town due to "effort" convincing either way).

[pieguyn]

I see you and muffin more than Vedith and anyone else.

yes, I'm asking you to explain *why* you don't see Vedith/anyone else.

I'm not asking for the sake of "I necessarily disagree with this", it's "can you show me something I might be missing?".

[pieguyn]

pieguy, what's your opinion on math's posts

really, really, really, _really_ horrible, but I still don't particularly know if it's coming from scum.

I'm waiting for ICE/Vedith to check in.

[pieguyn]

Yukari, VT. Vedith next.

I will respond to things later when I have more time.

[pieguyn]

Because that would require four players I humbly admire to be so derptastic it is ridiculous. Not an option.

what exactly are you trying to say here? that you have a town read on me or... ?

[pieguyn]

I will probably need another day.

I don't know if I agree with what I think ICE is saying. I'm mostly just waiting for Vedith in that regard.

[pieguyn]

I changed my mind, Vedith is town, math is probably scum.

I'm actually starting to suspect zmuffin is the second scum, but I need to think more.

beeboy did not shoot.

[pieguyn]

So wait we're being asked to choose between someone I don't think is town and someone who is practically confirmed town based on roles?

was about to say the same.

I don't think there's any way Vedith is scum here; I actually was originally planning on lynching anyone who tried to claim another PR, but Vedith's claim completely reversed it. it fits perfectly into the setup given what I know of how GIF designs setups (there's a lot of ways to block a kill, if we successfully block one the desperado can use its shot without losing a mislynch).

[pieguyn]

Like Pie

In what universe does a 1-shot bulletproof a 1-shot desperado and a town music vendor constitute acceptable level of town power

Like to me Jailkeeper is an extremely strong role so if you're like "it all has to be VT" but then someone comes in and claims a super strong power role then... this would not logically follow.

I figured it was probably just those roles vs. all goons. I didn't think about the possibility of another protective role until he actually claimed it.

[pieguyn]

zmuffin, I meant to ask you this before, but how exactly are you currently reading me/ICE? it isn't clear whether you're explicitly scum reading me over him at this point.

[pieguyn]

nvm, that's what I get for not fully reading your post first.

I was going to write a full response to your post from earlier but I was too exhausted. I'll get on that.

[pieguyn]

vote: math

don't really see a reason to hold the vote at this point. we can sort this out tomorrow if I'm still alive.

[pieguyn]

when are you planning on hammering, btw?

[pieguyn]

I can go ahead and respond to your post first if you'd prefer.

[pieguyn]

pieguy, write a 1000 word essay explaining why I should vote greyice over you tomorrow

oh, I totally will, if I decide on him being scum over you.

I'm still not quite sure.

[pieguyn]

I am somewhat exhausted right now. please spare me, I'll get around to it tomorrow.

[pieguyn]

I am holding myself to that, no backing out of it.

[pieguyn]

/shrugs loudly

DLA and beeboy didn't even think I was scum at the end, really. beeboy just had an ambiguous "there's scum on my wagon", and the last thing DLA said about me was that I was saying wise things (and I'm guessing he was OK with my theory post directed to him which explained how I approached the beeboy read).

[pieguyn]

tomorrow we will have a nice, long chat about why you haven't felt town in this game pieguy, and then you need to make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside or you die

I'll make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, all right.

~

[pieguyn]

was it really zmuffin and ICE?

well, shit.

[pieguyn]

jesus fuck if that's the case I owe you a sheep or two.

sorry

[pieguyn]

ur face is contrived

[pieguyn]

if math is trolling here, then lololol. I don't think they are, though.

[pieguyn]

gg.

this was an interesting game. for the record, I actually would probably have pushed against the "scum slip" hard as town, since things like that are practically never actually slips, but then the "confirmable town role"->"fruit vendor" claim... lololol.

[pieguyn]

on an unrelated note, I hope GIF writes the flavor for this game at some point or another. after EOSD, I was actually legit curious to read it. :<

[pieguyn]

Pieguyn -- Nice job Had me fooled

I'm actually still not sure where you got your meta on me from, since it's the opposite of what you thought it was. I'm a player who's notorious for being significantly more quiet and passive as scum, whereas I tend to lead the fuck out of games when I'm town (in forum games. there was a F2F game where I stepped up and led, IDR if you were there for it or not but it ended in me correctly hero-voting Empire in LYLO and being mislynched :<). magical girl game was a bit of an exception in that zmuffin was doing most of everything and the majority of my strong reads agreed with his anyway, so I was able to relax a lot more. even in the one F2F game I had where I was scum, the same thing applied: I was pretty much quiet the entire game, which ICE was able to distinguish from how I was playing when I was town.

D3 was a bit different though, I mostly just didn't bother to do anything since I was pretty sure Vedith would allow the coasting and that you wouldn't lynch me regardless even if you began to suspect me.

I am so ready to take a break from mafia. finally rolling scum with zmuffin in what will probably be my last game for a while (barring GIF's next game) was thoroughly awesome.