Newbie 1758 - Symmetry (Game Over)

[Sobolev Space]

Sup y'all.

This is my first game and I'm not quite sure how long RVS is supposed to last but VOTE: alphabetorical cuz that isn't even a real word.

[Sobolev Space]

Also anyone have suggestions for shows to binge watch now that I'm done with midterms?

[Sobolev Space]

@Psyche a couple questions about overall game stuff. I've played f2f a couple times but I feel like online its so easy for scum to emulate town perfectly people really shouldn't be doing better than random chance. Do you have any really clear examples of scumslips from your past games possibly that can help me see what I should be looking for?

When I played in the past I found I got overly defensive when people accused me of being mafia. Do you have any good suggestions for how a townie (like me ) should react when others are trying to build a wagon on them?

@Joshz and Human Sequencer. This whole exchange just looks like a misunderstanding. I think Joshz explained how he decides to do RVS voting convincingly (i.e. vote least active people) and the naked vote doesn't look scummy since he wan't actually pushing for a lynch. At the same time questioning the naked vote seems reasonable and I don't really see Sequencer trying to build a wagon on Joshz (at least not yet).

[Sobolev Space]

@loopdan
re: my questions to Psyche
I think I gave pretty good reasons in my post for why I'm asking these questions to the IC. If you don't believe my reasons are legitimate or have questions about them then you should bring those up before trying to establish an ulterior motive. Any question to the IC can be construed as "oh I'm scum and just trying to figure out how to fool town" - I think you have to do a little more work than just saying I

could

have some other motive. Especially since the purpose of these newbie games is to learn and I'm just trying to get up to speed on mafia theory here for future games.

Also with regard to me not wanting to get lynched: everyone has a motive to not get lynched, not just scum. Every mislynch hurts town's win condition so if I'm town I'm gonna try just as hard as I can to not get lynched (short of lying), right?

re: my comments on Joshz/Human Sequencer
It was more I wasn't convinced that either of them were acting scummy (for reasons I gave in the post) and didn't want to get the thread derailed with an irrelevant argument when we could be doing more constructive stuff.

@Psyche: Thanks for the comments! I think the stuff about how town should do better than random chance is especially interesting. It seems to come down to a lot of subjective or hard to codify rules which is what got me interested in mafia in the first place.

[Sobolev Space]

Hey so I'm in class right now but I'll make a longer post later today about people's concerns about me when I have more time to read through the thread. Is there anything aside from the word choice argument that I haven't addressed already? Or any other questions y'all have for me?

[Sobolev Space]

Finally got some free time. Per Joshz's suggestion I'll mostly offer comments on other stuff but if people have questions about my specific actions I'm happy to answer them.

I want to know what you think the motivations are for the players that are saying you are scummy. In other words, from your POV are they scum motivated or misguided town?

So far its just you, HS and some suspicion from Psyche but not an actual vote or anything. I think some of it is just to add pressure and see how I react since not much else is going on in this game like Sequencer said:

Loopdan does drive a convincing argument.
I'm gonna join for pressure. If we get to L-1, I'm retracting.

Aside from that I think its just being misguided/me articulating myself poorly. Though Loopdan was pushing for me a little at the beginning it wasn't a hard enough push for me to think they're scum. I also feel like scum would be trying to hang back and only join a wagon once it looks like it has a lot of steam but idk enough about the meta here.

[Sobolev Space]

@SS - I'd like to hear what you think about Hellfire Missile. Do you think HM is as newbie as he appears to be?

Haven't looked through their other game and since it sounds like its unfinished I feel like I shouldn't so I can't comment on that discussion. It seems to me like HM has been trying to stay below the radar and pop in every now and then to post newbie sounding posts without a lot of content. I'm not really sure what motive town or scum would have to try to appear newbie when they really aren't though.

[Sobolev Space]

@SS - I'd like to hear what you think about Hellfire Missile. Do you think HM is as newbie as he appears to be?

Haven't looked through their other game and since it sounds like its unfinished I feel like I shouldn't so I can't comment on that discussion. It seems to me like HM has been trying to stay below the radar and pop in every now and then to post newbie sounding posts without a lot of content. I'm not really sure what motive town or scum would have to try to appear newbie when they really aren't though.

I'm not saying that someone faking their "newbieness" is necessarily scum. I once discovered a "newbie" was faking (he alt-slipped in a prior game) and we lynched him for lying about his experience, only to see him flip town.

So you think they might be doing it just for fun? The thing that makes me think HM might just be newbie is that he seemed to legitimately not know the rule about talking about unfinished games and I think even an experienced player pretending to be a newbie might not want to break site wide rules but idk.

What's more concerning is that none of their posts have much content and they haven't posted anything really constructive about other stuff going on in the thread.

[Sobolev Space]

Also since alphabethorical's replacement has started to be more active:
UNVOTE: Alphabetorical/DayahaangRai

[Sobolev Space]

@Joshz what are your reads on other people in the game then?

[Sobolev Space]

Though Loopdan was pushing for me a little at the beginning it wasn't a hard enough push for me to think they're scum. I also feel like scum would be trying to hang back and only join a wagon once it looks like it has a lot of steam but idk enough about the meta here.

@Sobolev Space: Which is it? Scum would push hard or hang back? What are your current reads?

What I meant by that is that if Loopdan was pushing for me harder it would look suspicious and I would think he was scummy for not playing rationally (although pushing hard isn't how I would play if I were scum). Since he wasn't and because loopdan has been trying to drive productive conversation (as far as I can tell) he leans town imo. But overall, given the slow pace of our early game I think scum was probably trying to fly under the radar and hang back.

Reads right now: I think none of the people who have been voted for so far are scum, possibly excepting Jackel98 who I can't tell anything about since they haven't posted in 3(?) days. Here's my tier list from most likely town to least likely town, excluding myself and Jackel98 (for not posting):

1: Loopdan/Joshz/HowardRoark

2: Human Sequencer/Hellfire Missile (hard to read this one but they're acting a little odd)

3: DayahaangRai/Psyche

Read on DR is because I think his post on Joshz seemed to be trying a bit too hard and he seems overly concerned with his own innocence with things like:

According to my experiences in mafia games, Scums rarely get replaced and a 2 replacement of a role is rare for scums. So, The conclusion should be I can be said a near-confirmed townie but I dont expect it fully. Just said it.

Read on Psyche because he hasn't really posted much content as others have mentioned. If he starts giving good reads I'll be more inclined to move him up in the list. Mitigating factor here is that he mentioned early on he plays games as IC differently than he plays normal games which might have a little to do with this but I'm not sure where I draw the line.

[Sobolev Space]

@Sobloev: You had said "Being overly defensive" is a scumtell of yours. Dont you think you are doing the same thing right now? Being overly-defensive especially with 117 where you asked for questions/accusations to defend yourself which means you indeed are being Overdefensive.

Haha I said that when I was town I was overly defensive. I've only played mafia outside of this twice (both f2f) and both times I was town so I can't really comment on what scumtells I would have. I do think I was probably a little overdefensive early in the game but I've been trying to focus less on myself and more on overall reads and comment on the game in my posts since then.

[Sobolev Space]

DayRai might have tried to misrepresent Sobolev by quoting her as saying that she was overly defensive as

scum

, not town.

For full disclosure I just looked back at my original post and realized I left it open as to whether I was overly defensive as town or scum. I still think that this means that DR saying me being defensive is a scumtell is misrepresenting my views, however, although it could easily be accidental.

Aside from that what you're saying makes a lot of sense. Although I don't necessarily think that loopdan has shown less emotion than any other people in the game excepting Joshz.

@Psyche/SEs: General theory question. At what point do you think your suspicions of someone should move over to an actual vote on that person? Do you think that you should just always be voting for who you're most suspicious of at the time or do you think that there could be times when you have slight scum reads on a couple people but still aren't voting?

[Sobolev Space]

I think none of the people who have been voted for so far are scum

, possibly excepting Jackel98 who I can't tell anything about since they haven't posted in 3(?) days. Here's my tier list from most likely town to least likely town, excluding myself and Jackel98 (for not posting):
1: Loopdan/Joshz/HowardRoark
2: Human Sequencer/Hellfire Missile (hard to read this one but they're acting a little odd)
3: DayahaangRai/Psyche

Excluding RVS, Hellfire Missile and Psych are the only one to have received no votes. Yet Hellfire Missile is in the middle group?

I was counting votes on alphabetorical as separate from votes on DR so at the time of my post DR had also received no votes. But I also think that I was the only vote on alphabetorical and that started as RVS (will have to look through the thread to check this).

The reason I said I feel like scum hasn't been voted on is that pages 1-7 are pretty slow moving. I think that if there were any real wagons forming on scum in those pages the scum and their partner would be trying to redirect the discussion which would create more activity. This is one of the reasons I have a medium townread on Joshz.

[Sobolev Space]

@Joshz: why the new vote?

[Sobolev Space]

Excluding RVS, Hellfire Missile and Psych are the only one to have received no votes. Yet Hellfire Missile is in the middle group?

I was counting votes on alphabetorical as separate from votes on DR so at the time of my post DR had also received no votes. But I also think that I was the only vote on alphabetorical and that started as RVS (will have to look through the thread to check this).

That doesn't answer my question about Hellfire Missile's placement.

My bad. I placed HM in the second tier simply because I didn't find them as suspicious as DR and Psyche. The evidence contributing to my HM read is the possibly faked newbishness and the lack of actual content in their posts. Despite this there's a good chance that HM is legitimately as newbie as he appears and is having trouble making reads etc. This isn't as sus imo as DR who seems to be misconstruing previous posts and trying tunnel Joshz or Psyche who also isn't posting actual content but has a less valid explanation than HM because he's more experienced.

@Jackel98. Re post 218: I did actually call out DR earlier in post 216. I thought making that post that my earlier post specified that I was overly defensive as town. Between the two posts I looked back through the game and realized I left it open so I made 218 so it didn't look like I was purposely misrepresenting my earlier statements.

Also: why the town read on Sequencer?

[Sobolev Space]

Agree with Sequencer. Post 281 seems to be pandering. The only people Locust has scumreads on here are Hellfire Missile and Psyche - the newbie and the passive IC - neither of whom are likely to be leading a wagon on Locust. Aside from that he has townreads on everyone for pretty mediocore reasons (including no reason at all given for his townread on me). Looks like he's trying to make the most inoffensive post possible to dig out of the hole DayRai got him into.

This, along with DayRai's posts from yesterday which I just caught up on, lead me to VOTE: Locust

[Sobolev Space]

@Locust: what do you think were the motives behind DayRai's pbpa's in 173 and 251? Do you think he was making legitimate arguments or had any other motivation? What do you think about his quick vote switch from Joshz to Sequencer?

Also, now that you 'know' DayRai was town do you think any of the people on his wagon (Jackel/Loopdan/Sequencer) are scum?

[Sobolev Space]

Interesting. I have a lot of work to do and am also going to log out for the night but for my last question I'll ask you what you asked Sequencer: if I get lynched today and flip town does this change your scum reads? Who would you want to lynch day 2?

[Sobolev Space]

Been busy all day. Just skimmed the thread. Will have time for a more thorough reading probably tomorrow when I'm done with all my work.

Some thoughts: Locust has had much townier posts and is being active. Tone is still a little too conciliatory for my liking. Much better than his predecessors though. Keeping my vote here for now mostly because I have no better reads.

Joshz has had some suss activity including the "if you have your vote on Locust right now get it off or you're scum" (paraphrased) comment. Seems indicative of a mindset more focused on being viewed as scum than trying to find scum. Will have to look through his posts more carefully later. Joshz was originally a town read but has been bumped down to null.

Unless Psyche has a flurry of activity soon a Psyche lynch seems pretty justified to me.

[Sobolev Space]

Sigh. I'm up at 3AM doing work might as well check this game. I'm pretty sleep deprived so feel free to ask for clarification if I word anything confusingly or am not making sense.

I guess conciliatory is my natural style. I am more inclined to see town being jittery rather scum malice especially on day one when there is less to go on.

With that said I still had a scum read on you and still have an unanswered question about who you would want to lynch tomorrow if my wagon was successful?

I actually think my style (at least in f2f games I've played) is pretty conciliatory and passive too which is why I'm trying to apply more pressure on people and see how they react this game (we'll see how it works out lol). I think town passivity has been a big problem though and am not sure how we all should address it.

As to your question: if I knew with 100% certainty right now that you were town I would be kinda at a loss for reads (as I am now). I would probably go with some of my gut reads (see below) or want to lynch HM/Psyche for not contributing.

If we lynched you and you flipped scum I could see a convincing argument for Sequencer being your partner.

Out of everyone in the game right now who do you think is the scum team just on gut alone if nothing else?

The past few pages I've actually had a bit of a gut read on Loopdan as scum but I can't see any super scummy posts of his jumping out at me. I'll do a more careful analysis of this tomorrow when I have time to see if my priors are at all justified. Aside from that I think Sequencer leans a bit scum for reasons HR has pointed out. I could see a Loopdan/Jackel scumteam or Sequencer with someone like Psyche or HM. I said above that Joshz is null for me but I really can't see Joshz as a scumbuddy with anyone in the game rn. Again, all of this is just gut so take it with a grain of salt until we have more info.

As of the last vote count we had 5 days left (

@mod is this posted daily, when votes change significantly or just when you have time?

) so still time for Psyche to be replaced or contribute meaningfully. I have my vote there at the moment and would be happy to keep it there if nothing has changed my opinion closer to the deadline. I am not in a super rush to end the day for any reason. Especially with the low activity making hard to read people.

Agree with this 100%. I think we should give Psyche the benefit of the doubt if he starts to make more posts or gets replaced. A day 1 mislynch on the IC slot is basically the best case scenario for scumteam so we should avoid it if we can. Unfortunately, unless Psyche picks up or gets replaced we might have no better option.

[Sobolev Space]

If we lynched you and you flipped scum I could see a convincing argument for Sequencer being your partner.

Please elaborate.

Two reasons: 1. When Locust first posted sequencer and I both voted him pretty quickly but he only accused me of being scummy for this. Seems he was more threatened by me than Sequencer. 2. DayRai made long posts accusing Joshz and Sequencer but the Sequencer post felt a lot more contrived and less genuine to me. I think DayRai might've known he looked suss so distanced himself from his buddy knowing the wagon wouldn't get any traction.

A day 1 mislynch on the IC slot is basically the best case scenario for scumteam

Explain please.

So I'm assuming that if you replace into an IC slot you also have to be IC but I'm not sure if thats true. All else being equal, you would expect the IC to be the best player in the game meaning good lynch for scum if they're town. All I'm saying is we should give Psyche the chance to explain himself or get replaced before lynching him.

Anyway since Sequencer asked for everyone's list:

Don't lynch

Joshz
HR

Null-ish

Loopdan
Sequencer

D2 candidates

Jackel

Lynch 'em

Psyche
HM
Locust

[Sobolev Space]

Lynch 'em
Psyche
HM
Locust

You do realize Locust's predecessor (DayRai) claimed cop, right? We are not lynching Locust Today.

Agree with Joshz here I took that claim with a huge grain of salt. If Locust got to L-1 and repeated the claim I would grant it more credence. That said a Locust lynch isn't looking probable today so I'm happy with focusing efforts on Psyche, HM or Jackel.

[Sobolev Space]

UNVOTE: Locust
Locust has been contributing more and has been making genuine sounding posts and reads, doesn't look like he's just trying to appease town, which is what I was most looking for. I still have a lot of questions based on DayRai's activity but for now Locust would be a bad lynch.

Lynch list: Jackel, HM, Sequencer (maybe but it would be better day 2)

@Locust re post 448: what information do you think we would get out of a Jackel lynch? It seems to me that Jackel hasn't made any clear alliances or enemies.

@HowardRoark. Can you explain what you mean with your comment in the post right above this one?

@Joshz: I agree that more pressure should be put on Loopdan but we're nearing the end of day 1, Loopdan hasn't done anything obviously scummy (imo), and he's contributed a fair amount. This would probably be best saved for day 2 when we have more info. There are much better options today.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

[Sobolev Space]

Sorry for the absence. I'm fine with lynching Jackel for reasons others and I have gone over. I'm unsure if I should vote though before we let Jackel/Huntress post more since we're at L-2 and Loopdan already retracted his vote. If there's any sort of community norm on this kind of thing I would appreciate being informed of it.

@Sequencer: If we lynch Jackel and he flips scum where do I move in your lynch list? Would his flip affect your reads on anyone else in the game so far?

@Huntress: interesting post on Jackel. Do you have any strong town reads on anyone yet? No analysis needed just want your thoughts.

[Sobolev Space]

Sobolev, I don't think I meant to imply that Day was expected to say whether he had revised it. I was saying that, as he hadn't, it was possible that the read on Joshz started neutral, but Day had gone back through his notes multiple times. About the hypocrisy you note about my 247, I didn't start biased? Or at least, I felt that he was scummy from his first content post. I did omit some of my notes for being too sarcastic and snarky.

Is this supposed to be addressed to Huntress?

[Sobolev Space]

Let's go Locust. If I wanna hammer Jackel should I give intent to hammer at this point or since he's already claimed and stuff can I just go ahead and do it?

[Sobolev Space]

Naw I was just unsure since we lost votes and then got back to L-1 if community norms say Jackel has another chance to defend himself. But he claimed already and doesn't seem to be putting too much effort into defending himself otherwise so:
VOTE: Jackel

[Sobolev Space]

See, I thought Josh was a doctor. I guess he just doesn't know how to read tables.

What does this I don't even?

I think he's saying that he claimed tracker because he thought Joshz was doctor so it would be consistent with the setup (from Joshz's viewpoint) which would give his claim credibility but instead Locust came in and busted him.

Also, do y'all know how long we get for twilight period or naw?

@Locust: If I were cop I would investigate Loopdan or Huntress. If I were you and cop I would probably investigate me (Sobolev Space) though since you've been suss of me all game.

[Sobolev Space]

Surprised about the NK. I was a little suss of Loopdan and could have seen an argument for him being teamed with Jackel. Anyway, my reads are mostly the same as yesterday for now. I would like to see more out of Howard and HM today.

I know Locust and myself are town and I'm pretty sure Joshz is town but everyone else is possible scum.

Ok so it's a doc and mafia roleblocked game

How do you know?

We know Locust is cop from d1. So our two options are {Doc, Cop, Mafia Roleblocker} or {VT, Cop, Mafia Goon}. If it was the second one the remaining goon would just have killed Locust last night since he couldn't have had protection to get rid of a PR. Since that didn't happen we have to be in the first setup.

@Sequencer: Did your read on me change because of Jackel's flip?

[Sobolev Space]

The other option is that we're in the {VT, Cop, Goon} setup and the remaining goon just didn't realize they should kill Locust which also shows a lot of newbness. Either way I'm feeling HM is probably remaining scum.

I just don't see how this could be a gambit since killing off/blocking cop is objectively the best for scum always. Not doing so leaves the huge risk of Locust finding you for a very very small potential payoff.

If I take Locust, Huntress and myself as guaranteed town and Joshz leaning town I'm left with Sequencer, Howard, and HM. Of those three the order from most likely scum to least likely goes HM > Howard > Sequencer.

[Sobolev Space]

HM, why do you think scum didn't kill/roleblock Locust last night?

Do you have any reads at all on people left in the game?

[Sobolev Space]

like, i understand the theory behind trying to look newbie, but letting a cop get an inspect in exchange for that... that just removes one person from the might-be-scum pool. definitely not something id consider a good play.

I mean I guess it could be possible if someone is trying to set up HM for an easy lynch today. But then scum would be somebody who Locust is unlikely to inspect which excludes me, Sequencer and HM.

An HM lynch today still looks likely but if he flips town I'm pretty suss of you and Howard.

@HM: any case to defend yourself or reads on other people?

[Sobolev Space]

HM, you seem legitimately exasperated here. If you're not enjoying the game then you should probably ask for a replacement instead of just resigning yourself to being lynched. But if you still want to play remember its a newbie game and you can ask for help on how to get content started. Now that we (hopefully) have a more active IC there will be more good advice available.

I think Loopdan's 501 could be a NK reason.

Can you explain this more please? I don't see anything in this post that points directly at Sequencer...

[Sobolev Space]

@Sobolev Space: By itself it is not much. Loopdan was looking at Human Sequencer, i.e. 194, 214, 334, 350. I read into 501, probably nothing, but feel it is worth being part of my case. I looked through Jackel98 ISO also . . . not much, maybe 247 and 249.

Agree that 249 looks a little sketch. Especially because I questioned him on his Sequencer read in 250 and got no response.

[Sobolev Space]

itd be hilarious if he was like vt tho rofl

Locust going for that next level gambit.

[Sobolev Space]

@Joshz I think we covered earlier that you can't talk about ongoing games even if the person is already out of the game.

@Sequencer: Re: posts 476, 531
I was legitimately just curious how your ranking of me interacted with Jackel's status. I personally didn't see myself as having too many interactions with Jackel so I was surprised you gave enough weight to his flip to entirely clear me of suspicious in 530.
More importantly, if I was scum there's no way I would risk letting Locust live/inspect last night considering I was his biggest scum read through all of yesterday so there's a good chance he would inspect me.

@HM: This is my first forum game so my advice won't be the best but what I've been trying to do when I read through people's posts is to examine whether their stated intentions actually match up with how they act an evaluate arguments. It requires some close reading and a bit of going off of gut feeling but I think it's worthwhile.

@all: I agree if we have a doc they should refrain from claiming until lylo but I also don't think we've proved yet that we're in a setup with a doc. We could be in a {VT, cop, goon} setup where the remaining goon refrained from killing Locust last night so it looks like there's a doc and they can fakeclaim doc when we get to lylo and nobody will be able to disprove them. It's a gutsy play but its possible. I'll believe we're in the other setup once I actually see evidence of a successful rb/protection.

[Sobolev Space]

If Hellfire flips scum we win if we lynch him now or lynch him in 48 hours. If he flips town then I would be gunning for Josh tomorrow as he has been pushing for this from the start of the day and pushing hard. Human as well. Chill out there is plenty of game to be had. Everyone on Hellfire makes it easy for scum to hide now at least with some more options for a lynch today we might get a better read into day 3 should Hellfire flip town.

I agree with all of this. I think the biggest issue if we lynch Hellfire and he flips town is figuring out why the remaining scum didn't kill/rb you last night. I've given two theories:
A) They were trying to set up HM for a lynch d2
B) They're trying to convince us a doc is in the setup so they can fakeclaim doc in lylo to win
But for either of them to work the remaining scum has to be someone who wasn't worried about being inspected last night which points to Joshz, Howard or (maybe) Sequencer.

[Sobolev Space]

That said I still am not opposed to a HM lynch today if we get some good discussion in beforehand. I do think that an HM lynch would probably provide a lot more info than any other lynches for the reasons above.

[Sobolev Space]

I mean I agree its a big stretch but if HM isn't scum I literally can't see any other reason for not killing/rb'ing Locust last night. It is most probable that HM is scum but we still have to think about what happens if he flips town.

[Sobolev Space]

Keep in mind that for both theories they can still rb/kill Locust tonight. So the risk isn't that big.

[Sobolev Space]

Alright gonna make a few comments before I go work out.

if he flips town me/howard/you (in order of likelyhood in my opinion) are going to die, of course assuming locust doesnt. then we lynch hs. if neither of them are scum, its lylo, but i dont see that as particularly likely.

Really? I see Huntress as the obvious nk tonight considering she's conftown. If HM flips town then Howard and I have already said we'd be suss of you which makes scum likely to want to keep you around. I think Howard would probs be next on the list.
The way I see it is that doc should be protecting Locust no matter what so if Locust dies tonight then we're in a setup without doc, if Locust lives but is rb'd we have a doc/roleblocker, and if Locust lives but still isn't rb'd idk what to think but we're probs in a setup without a doc with the scum going for a really out there gambit. Either way we'll know by tomorrow.

I mean I guess it could be possible if someone is trying to set up HM for an easy lynch today. But then scum would be somebody who Locust is unlikely to inspect which excludes me, Sequencer and HM.

This is a good point.

Any comment on the other theory I give in the bottom of post 612?

[Sobolev Space]

Not gonna use direct quotes because I don't have a ton of time but here are some thoughts.

@Sequencer post 636: Case on you is mostly from suspicions people like Howard or Loopdan had yesterday. I'll admit I had a bit of a bias against you because I looked through your posts today and found nothing that looked suspicious. You're a null read for me right now.

Case on Howard is mainly from my arguments in post 617. There aren't many people who would let Locust live/inspect last night on purpose.

@HM: Disregard Joshz for now. The reason analysis of Huntress's posting isn't very productive is that Locust has already (essentially) claimed cop and said Huntress is confirmed town based on an inspection last night. The current pool of non alignment confirmed players (excluding you) is me, Joshz, Sequencer, and Howard. Please continue your comments on any of us four.

@Joshz post 626. Having wrong reads by itself is NAI. Having wrong reads for bad reasons is alignment indicative. Keep in mind that town consensus at that point was that DayRai's claim was non serious as Sequencer says in post 266 and I myself even said that I would consider recanting my vote if we got to L-1 and Locust repeated the claim in post 410. Kinda suspicious that only now you think me voting Locust after DayRai claimed cop is scummy considering you defended me for it in post 407.

[Sobolev Space]

Agree with what most of Locust says in the post above me. I do think that an HM lynch will provide some valuable info as I've covered before in post 617. I also don't agree with Huntress's town read on HM. I think that the confusion on already locked roles showed in post 649 might give a reason why scum HM wouldn't rb/kill Locust last night. But more importantly, this game is slow enough as it is and lynching one of the players actually generating content without very good reason is just gonna kill the discussion more, especially when we do have an anti-town player to lynch today.

[Sobolev Space]

Also just as an fyi to y'all I'll have reduced activity until probably Wednesday night due to finals. I'll still try to post at least once a day though.

[Sobolev Space]

Space seems incapable of creating an original thought, and everything she posts reads fake to me.

This is a blatantly false representation of my posting history. Just going over my last couple content posts:
In post 644 I agree with what Locust says above me but add caveats giving reasons why a) I have positive reasons to believe HM could be scum b) an HM lynch will give good info if he flips town and c) an HM lynch today would be least harmful to town
In post 641 I go over stuff in old posts of mine and give reasons why Joshz's suspicion of my vote on Locust is unwarranted
In post 628 I give reasons why the night actions tomorrow night should be able to confirm whether we're in a doc/rb setup
In post 617 I give theories as to why scum would not kill/rb Locust last night if HM is town, something which literally nobody else in this game is bringing up

My posts pretty clearly contain original thoughts, sounds like you just don't want them brought up.

As to your claim that I sound "fake" that mostly seems to stem from this post:

Sputnik doesn't, maybe
Looks like she's adapting her playstyle to appease to others. At first she claims she's overdefensive as scum, then when josh and I tell her she doesn't need to be concerned about herself this early on and that Josh wants to see more hunting from her, her posts flip over to 'Eh, it's just a few votes on me, I don't care' and 'This is my readslist'. P suss to me. Could be newbie trying to learn how to play properly, but a lot of newbies wouldn't care so much I think

Aside from repeating the already proven false claim that I said I'm overdefensive as scum (discussed in posts 216 and 218) your entire case against me rides on me trying to change playstyles to appease town under the radar when I literally admit that I'm trying a new playstyle because my old one made me too focused on myself didn't generate good content in 216, four posts before your accusal.

Coincidentally Jackel tried to accuse me the same way when he was alive claiming that I was "trying to be as inoffensive as possible" in post 374 when the page before I myself admitted this was a problem that I was trying to work on:

I actually think my style (at least in f2f games I've played) is pretty conciliatory and passive too which is why I'm trying to apply more pressure on people and see how they react this game (we'll see how it works out lol). I think town passivity has been a big problem though and am not sure how we all should address it.

We won't have to lynch Howard.

If we can lynch three (and I thought we could only lynch 2) I will -gladly- put myself on the line to be lynched if Sobolev and HM flip town.

This also reads scummy as shit. Town would have no motive to volunteer themselves for a lynch in lylo knowing that it means an assured scum win. Only motive I can see is trying to build town cred. Also kinda odd you don't consider the possibility that you're a NK either of the two nights...

I'll one up you Sequencer. If you put yourself on the line

today

and flip town I'll volunteer myself for a lynch tomorrow (assuming I'm not NK'd by the most incompetent scum ever) so town still has a day of lylo to find scum.

[Sobolev Space]

In case that didn't make it clear
VOTE: Sequencer
Next time you and your scum buddy should find better content for coming up with your fake reads.

[Sobolev Space]

Sequencer I'll literally vote myself today if it means a lynch on you tomorrow.

I mentioned you in posts 571 and 543 as a scum candidate. Don't lie.

I'm annoyed because I'm sick as hell of being called scummy by you and Jackel (when he was alive) for admitting my own shortcomings as a town player and asking for advice on how to be more pro-town.

@HM: I got on the wagon late so didn't really give fleshed out reasons but basically 1. misrepresented my post history and 2. seemed to be playing to post infrequently enough to fly under the radar but enough to not be accused of lurking.

[Sobolev Space]

So Sequencer I was suspect of you before and posts 686 and 688 pinged me hard enough to make you a solid scum read of mine.

The claim that (yet again) I'm changing my playstyle is (yet again) a complete lie.

[Sobolev Space]

@HM: I got on the wagon late so didn't really give fleshed out reasons but basically 1. misrepresented my post history and 2. seemed to be playing to post infrequently enough to fly under the radar but enough to not be accused of lurking.

It seems like you just went in for the hammer though.

Why aren't you voting for me then? Are you also going to hammer me without any explanation?

I hammered because Locust pretty conclusively showed that Jackel's tracker claim was false. Unless you're planning on fakeclaiming a PR I won't go in like that lol.

So Sequencer I was suspect of you before and posts 686 and 688 pinged me hard enough to make you a solid scum read of mine.

Shouldn't you post your suspicion just in case you get night killed?

My analysis of both posts is in post 699.

[Sobolev Space]

Hey all, sorry for the absence. I'll try to post more frequently starting tomorrow I've just been swamped today.

I still think Sequencer is very likely scum, or at least has a lot of suspicious behavior.

The switch from (paraphrasing) "I said some stupid stuff so I can understand a lynch on me today" in post 735 to "I have no idea why people want to lynch me" in post 745 is just odd. Can't think of a strong scum motive to post either of these but the inconsistency makes me think that one of them could be part of a play.

Of course I don't consider the possibility that I'm the NK for two nights. That's Locust and Huntress.

This also seems weird. If the remaining scum is a roleblocker they'd probably assume that doc is protecting one of the conftown roles (likely Locust as he's a PR) and use their NKs elsewhere. Makes me think HS might have info on the setup we all don't.

The switch from (paraphrasing) "lynch HM -> Sobolev -> Me" in post 686 to "lynch sobolev -> hm -> josh" in post 727 (weird since Sequencer has a "very town" read on Joshl) to "we can lynch me today as long as we get HM and Sobolev later" in post 731 reads very fake. As well as the super transparent attempts to suck up to Howard/Huntress in post 733.

@Howard:

Trying to decipher Sobolev Space versus Human Sequencer. TvT or TvS? Will do an ISO now.

Any updates here?

@Huntress:

Lining up lynches like this is a bad idea. We have five players with unknown alignments and only three lynches left.

Care to explain more here? I can see why we wouldn't want to make any hard commitments since our reads might change but I don't see any difference between saying something like "I think we should lynch Sequencer -> HM -> Howard (assuming the first two flip town)" and "I think Sequencer is most likely scum, followed by HM, and followed by Howard". I did find the air of certainty that came along with Sequencer's line-ups pretty suss though.

@Sequencer:

ScumHS would just let the thread die and fall into inactivity tbh.

Fair point but not enough to convince me. Aside from that if you think activity is alignment indicative why do you have such a strong town read on Howard? His posting strategy seems to be "pop in occasionally so people don't accuse me of lurking but don't get in the middle of any big action" kinda like Jackel.

Sorry for the wall of text all, just trying to get all my thoughts written out since I've missed about a day.

[Sobolev Space]

Kinda a bummer we didn't get to see any last thoughts from Locust. Oh well. NK means we're probably in a no doc game.

I have the strongest read against Joshz and his actions yesterday seal it for me. Quickly from ISO 685, 691 & 700 & 728, 732, and 760. More to follow later tonight. PEDIT: add 772.

I didn't see anything especially scummy in any of these posts. Could you do a bit more indepth analysis about what you found suspicious?

I think there is a positive case for HM being scum. HM did express some confusion about the claimed roles at the beginning of day 2 which could explain the lack of a Locust kill night 1. Given HMs style, however, its hard to read through their posts for any especially scummy things.

I also find it odd that Howard has gone under the radar for most of the game except for a mild scum read of him by Joshz. I'll have to look through his ISO when I have more time. I haven't seen anything especially scummy from him but I will say that if I were scum I would ideally be playing exactly how Howard is now.

@Howard, do you mean Sequencer's flip in the post above?

[Sobolev Space]

Also @Howard: why would Sequencer's flip give me towncred in your eyes?

[Sobolev Space]

@Sobolev Space: Have you completed your ISO of me? I feel that your style is somewhat similar to mine. How do you think they differ? Are you still willing to volunteer (end of 699) today? What part of that made/makes sense?

Have skimmed through it. The main thing that made me suspicious is that you seemed to be trying to contribute often enough to appear active without ever being in the center of attention and without ever pushing any lynches/reads on the rest of town. That has somewhat changed with your and Joshz's conversation from yesterday. I agree that Joshz seemed to be cherry picking Sequencer quotes in 790 considering that Sequencer's last two posts were basically "lynch Joshz or Sobolev" but we'll see what his replacement has to say.
As to lynching myself, I mostly did that to call Sequencer on what I saw as their bluff. However, considering Sequencer's flip I kinda assumed I would be the main lynch target for today. If town decides to lynch me I obviously won't be happy about it but its better to lynch a townie now than in lylo. All I ask is that we use all our time for discussion since Sequencer's self-hammer yesterday cut that off.
My preferred lynch today, however, would be HM.

@HM: what is your opinion on Joshz v. Howard? TvT or TvS?

[Sobolev Space]

Sorry for the inactivity all. Was busy yesterday and went skiing today so I only just got internet access.

Welcome ThinkBig!

For the record, I have played with Josh a few times. I've noticed in my games with him he tends to flip out and tends to be incoherent regardless of his alignment.

If its allowed would you mind linking any games? I'm not especially worried but lying about the meta of the player who's slot you're replacing into seems like an easy (and a little lazy) scum strategy to manipulate town.

Current FOS is on hellfire and howard. I just want to finish ISO'ing them before voting.

When you have time can you explain the read on Howard? I've also thought some of Howard's general activity could be suspicious but couldn't find anything overtly scummy in his posts. Everyone else seemed to have a strong town read on him (d2 and also to an extent today) so I'm curious as to what you think.

@HM: what is your opinion on Joshz v. Howard? TvT or TvS?

Joshz has massive AtEs. He got really pissed off after Howard tunneled him, and even before, back at the very start. He could definitely be pissed because Howard discovered something about him, but earlier, when i was reading him, i noticed that he had a lack of emotion when he was two votes away from being lynched (Day 1, Post 298)
It's just weird.

really weird.

First he gets pissed for being voted on for a shitty reason

then he doesn't even react at all (at least emotionally) for his two votes away from Lynch

Then he gets like, ANGRY, when Howard tunneled him

TvS i believe. Josh feels scummy.

Interesting. Between you, Howard, and Huntress yesterday I think I'm the only one with a town read on Joshz/ThinkBig. I felt like most of the stuff he posted was legitimate emotion. He just seemed like somebody who can get easily frustrated. Again, looking at his other games would help.

@Huntress: Is your read of Joshz/ThinkBig changed from yesterday?

@All: On day 3 how active are these games usually? This is my first but it seems a little dead. I figured it was just because we have fewer people now but idk.

[Sobolev Space]

I think if anyone deliberately let Locust get an investigation night one to throw us off the scent then Josh is a candidate ...

I think Howard is also a possibility here but agree it is most likely Josh/ThinkBig. As another question, unless HM is scum, why else do you think somebody would have let Locust get the investigation/live n1?

...but I also think that Jackel thought Josh might be the doctor and was trying to tell his partner, in which case it couldn't be Josh.

The way I read those last couple posts is that Jackel thought Joshz was doctor for some reason and thus claimed tracker so that he had a chance of nobody being able to disprove the setup and living another night (or for some other reason idk). But it is also possible Jackel made those last couple posts to throw us off the scent since it seems weird for scum to admit that another player is town as they're dying. Joshz did seem unusually focused on those last posts from Jackel which was a bit odd. Idk here.

[Sobolev Space]

Be careful with referencing other games. You can always find a player's topics and posts from their profile.

Fair enough. I thought ThinkBig might have been referring to an offsite game since Joshz mentioned he played offsite a fair amount and I was unsure about the rules for linking offsite games. He's only completed one game which is all we're allowed to talk about and in that game I don't see the AtEs and rants that ThinkBig was referring too so I might have to revise my reads. On the other hand a lot of Joshz's frustration seemed pretty genuine to me so we'll see. Ugh.

@ThinkBig: Any updates?

[Sobolev Space]

I think there are reasons to scumread HM aside from him being just anti-town. At this point it looks like an HM lynch would be best today but if he flips town I have no idea who out of ThinkBig/Howard would be scum. Ugh.

@HM: what's your read on Howard? Seen any suspicious activity from him?

@mod

: can we get a prod on Huntress?

[Sobolev Space]

HM, when you say you're better at reading AtEs do you mean that you think you're better at determining when a player using a lot of emotion is genuine or not? I'm having a little trouble understanding you here.

If that's the case what's your opinion of very unemotional play? You said earlier it seems weird for people to remain calm when they're close to being lynched. Do you still feel that way?

[Sobolev Space]

Why do you think scum would be less likely to freak out than town? Arguably lynching scum hurts their win condition a lot more than lynching town does. For example, if I got lynched today I'd be disappointed but I'd know town would still have hope in lylo. If scum was lynched today though it'd be game over for them.

[Sobolev Space]

Yeah I'm hoping everyone was just inactive because they were busy this weekend and it will pick up soon.

ThinkBig, have you finished reading through the whole game? Are your reads still the same?

[Sobolev Space]

ThinkBig are you still suspicious of Howard? If we lynch HM and he flips town I'm very unsure between you and Howard who is scum.

[Sobolev Space]

What pros are there? If we nolynch today and tomorrow we get to lylo with 2 scum kills, one on Huntress and one on either me, you, or Howard, whereas if we lynch today we have a chance of straight up winning today or at least killing off one of the more anti-town players and going into lylo with (assuming HM is the lynch) me, you, and Howard. If the thread was more active I could see a benefit since we would have more time for discussion but right now I'm not seeing it.

[Sobolev Space]

If HM isn't scum then if we nolynch twice scum will definitely let HM live and everyone will just come around to an HM lynch like we were doing today and town is lost.

If HM is scum then we should just lynch him today and win. Nolynching twice would just put this off for two days and also risk a loss.

PEdit: yeah thats what I was thinking basically.

[Sobolev Space]

Is that L-1? I really don't think this would be our best lynch for today. HM is much more likely scum IMO and much more anti-town than ThinkBig or Joshz has been.

[Sobolev Space]

HM's last couple of posts read a little weird to me. Like he's trying to distance himself from HS's lynch because HS flipped town. Idk.

Re your above post HM: I was fine with lynching either you or Sequencer, Sequencer just seemed scummier at the time. Now you're the best lynch.

This thread has been super dead, very annoying. And another good reason to lynch HM since we need as many pro-town players as we can get.

[Sobolev Space]

@HM, I don't want you to vote for yourself. I want you to make a case for why we shouldn't lynch you today.

And another good reason to lynch HM since we need as many pro-town players as we can get.

Pro-town doesn't equal townie, in the same way as anti-town doesn't equal scummy.

Fair enough. My biggest worry is that Howard is scum and is pushing a ThinkBig lynch today so the thread dies tomorrow and we all end up deciding on an HM lynch for him to win in lylo.

@Sobolev Space: Would you hammer if I switched my vote to Hellfire Missile?

I would wait at least 72 hours for HM to defend himself and for us to finalize discussion (especially for Huntress to get her last say since she's likely the NK tonight). After that I would hammer unless HM presented some very very convincing arguments for why I shouldn't.

@Huntress: are you still leaning towards ThinkBig being scum?

[Sobolev Space]

Ugh. Howard is suss but HM is still by far the best lynch. If y'all's votes are still on Howard close to the end of the day though I'll give intent to hammer but please reconsider.

@Huntress: Were you suspicious of Howard before the last couple of posts? If so why?

@ThinkBig: Do you have any reasons from Howards iso for why he's scum that haven't already been brought up?

Since this is L-1 should Howard claim and everything or naw? I mean I'm assuming we're all VTs (except the remaining scum) so I guess claiming isn't that important... Unsure about norms here.

[Sobolev Space]

Howard, in post 865 ThinkBig said he revised his read on you to null town when asked again. I'm waiting for his response to my above question before I assess how opportunistic his last vote was. I agree it did look like his tone changed a little once Huntress voted for you.

My argument about you going for a Joshz/ThinkBig lynch is that if lylo is you, me, HM it'll be a lot easier to convince me to vote HM than it would be if lylo was you, me, ThinkBig. Partially because I've wanted to lynch HM all game and partially because there will be much less content and activity in a you, me, HM lylo. I wouldn't be happy about hammering you today but if at the end of the day we still had you and ThinkBig at L-1 I would guess that you're more likely scum.

The point of my question to you was an attempt at a sanity check for my read of you.

...

@Huntress: I appreciate that you didn't like my post. I also appreciate that Sobolev Space was able to answer it before anyone else chimed in.

Can you explain these two lines?

[Sobolev Space]

2 post in 24 hours ugh. If this is how the thread is gonna be it sounds like discussion is done with. In that case:

Intent to hammer: ThinkBig

Upon review I think his jumping on the Howard train was a little suss. Compounded with earlier activity by him and Joshz I think he's more likely scum than Howard. I disagree with Huntress that the first half of post 890 by Howard was scummy as well considering that the post by Huntress that he quoted was on the previous page. Howard has been pretty pro-town for the rest of the game as well.

I would still prefer a HM lynch but its looking like it isn't in the cards and a lynch is better than nolynch.

If ThinkBig flips town I'm gonna be pretty suspect of Howard. If HM is scum he just got a pretty huge pass from me but we'll see how it works out in lylo assuming the game doesn't end after this lynch.

I want to wait for everyone to have their say before hammering. I especially want to see Howard and ThinkBig's responses to the questions posed to them above.

[Sobolev Space]

It was nice that nobody else answered for you and that Huntress appears to be doing some scum hunting, though I obviously disagree with her vote on me.

You've made a couple ominous sounding statements about your question to me in post 884. Could you please explain these a bit more? I asked about this in post 891 as well and still have no response. How did my answer to your question affect your read of me?

You've called for a Hellfire Missile lynch several times today (807, 851, 872 with not wanting to lynch

Joshz

ThinkBig, 879, 885 with Hellfire Missile mislynch tomorrow, 889) but are now ready to hammer ThinkBig. Why the intent versus asking/pushing me to change to Hellfire Missile?

The thread had had a total on 2 posts from the same person in a 24 hour period when I gave intent. I assumed that most people were done with discussion for the day so resigned myself to what I saw as the best lynch in that scenario (even though I mentioned I would still prefer an HM lynch), and hoped a little that my intent to hammer might cause some activity. It appears that now you and ThinkBig are more active, so hopefully we can still get an HM lynch, or at least more content in the thread.

[Sobolev Space]

When they get mad, they make more mistakes.
More mistakes equals more constrictions.

tada

Scum can still contradict themselves even when they aren't mad, however, because unlike the rest of us they have a specific agenda they're pushing in the game. Do you still have a scum leaning read on ThinkBig, HM?

For those on my wagon, when I flip town, what information will that give to you?

If you flip town I'll definitely be a little more suspect of Howard. If lylo is me Howard HM I'm pretty undecided still on how I'll vote.

@Huntress, Howard, ThinkBig: Is there still not much support among y'all for an HM lynch today? I still think that would be by far the best lynch but if we're nearing the deadline and nobody else is on board I think I'll have to go with hammering ThinkBig.

For now:
VOTE: Hellfire Missile

[Sobolev Space]

@Huntress, Howard, ThinkBig: Is there still not much support among y'all for an HM lynch today? I still think that would be by far the best lynch but if we're nearing the deadline and nobody else is on board I think I'll have to go with hammering ThinkBig.

I'm not seeing why you think HM is more likely to be scum than either of the other two? You keep saying he's the best lynch but as far as I can see from your ISO it's just because of night one. Is that right?

That's the main reason - I just can't see Howard or Joshz passing on a Locust kill n1 (maybe Joshz a little considering how hard he was going after HM at the beginning of d2 but we'll see).

There are a couple other reasons I think I've mentioned before however:
1. Posts 873, 875, 877 from HM read like he's trying to distance himself from the Sequencer lynch and are a bit suspicious. I think he sees being on a townie lynch as scummy and wants to get towncred from these posts.
2. HM is much harder to read than Howard and ThinkBig. I disagree with most of the arguments he's provided but can't decipher if its because he's pushing an agenda or just newbishness. This gives a benefit even if he flips town. I think if lylo is me Howard ThinkBig then by putting pressure on Howard/ThinkBig (like we've seen the past couple of pages) and going through their ISOs will give me enough info to get a good guess of who is scum. If lylo is me, HM, someone else I'm not sure if I could do better than 50/50 however.

[Sobolev Space]

Alright y'all since we're approaching the deadline I'll hammer ThinkBig tomorrow night unless we have a Christmas miracle and y'all come together on an HM lynch. I'm going skiing Monday so I won't be active then which means tomorrow night will be my last chance to contribute before the deadline. I realize everyone is busy but if we could all post some last thoughts that would be helpful. Since for some reason everyone is town reading me I figure I might also be targeted for a NK aside from Huntress so I'll try to give my final reads tomorrow in case I don't survive the night.

Have a happy holidays everyone!

[Sobolev Space]

VOTE: ThinkBig

Sorry ThinkBig, I just got home and am about to go to bed. Since I won't be on again before the deadline I wanted to get my vote in now. I realize you probably forgot to post or went to bed early, but I hope that you'll be able to post your final thoughts (if you're town) during the twilight period.

Anyways, if ThinkBig flips town I'm thinking HM is tbh our only good lynch tomorrow. I think the n1 evidence is overwhelmingly against him. Howard, aside from a couple recent concerns which weren't a big deal, has been playing pretty townie the whole game IMO.

[Sobolev Space]

Sorry about the early hammer. I wanted everyone to be able to get their last thoughts in but I also couldn't come back before the deadline and wanted to make sure we had a lynch yesterday. Everyone being away for the holiday right around deadline was unfortunate.

Anyway I'm still fairly confident in HM scum but want to have some time to read through everyone's ISOs to be sure. Will update y'all tomorrow hopefully.

[Sobolev Space]

Looked through Howard and Hellfire's ISOs. I think Howard tunneling Joshz/ThinkBig all game is still a little weird but understandable and he gave good reasons for his suspicion. The reasons for voting Hellfire I outlined in post 908 I think still hold.

@Howard: Any update on your revised reads?

@Hellfire: I know you're V/LA but when you get back in the next few days can you give your opinion on the events recently?

[Sobolev Space]

Howard, the n1 kill argument was that the only reason to not kill Locust n1 was either not knowing Locust claimed cop (indicating HM) or not being worried about being investigated. I think that considering Locust/most others were scumreading me pretty hard at the end of d1 I was definitely a candidate for an investigation, which is why I think the argument applies more to you/Joshz than myself. I guess you could say I was going for a gambit there but the benefit/risk ratio seems pretty skewed. Are there any other reasons you have to question my alignment, or worries you have about my activity? Additionally, why do you think HM's new increased-content posts are concerning?

Since HM ended his V/LA yesterday how long do we have to wait before he gets prodded?

[Sobolev Space]

(On phone) Hellfire Missile's self-vote question and expression of experience, but lack of substantive effort have me scratching my head; see quote from me about ThinkBig in the L1 situation.

Can you explain the self vote comment?

I'll have to go back for specifics with Sobolev Space, but it's small things leading to a general fear of being outdone by clever scum.

I guess I'll have to see your specifics to better respond to this but if this is what you're worried about I think you're far overestimating my cleverness lol. This is literally my first forum mafia game.

@HM: Hypothetical question - if we get to near the end of deadline and Howard and I are both voting for each other who do you hammer?

[Sobolev Space]

Don't want to wreck your question, but it reads very scummy.

Are you talking about my question to you or to HM? I asked my question to HM that way because whenever we ask him for his reads he just says "I don't do reads" so I wanted to get a sense of who he's suspicious of by giving a tangible situation where he would have to act.

At this point I'm almost ready to throw out a vote and "good game" because I'm not sure that I can determine who's got me fooled.

I'm still unsure about how voting goes in these lylo situations. Do we just vote when we feel convinced someone is scum and further discussion would be unproductive? In that case I'd have been ready to vote HM since the start of the day pretty much haha.

[Sobolev Space]

Howard, yea in retrospect I can see what you're saying about how that could have looked scummy. I was honestly just trying to get some information out of HM but I didn't expect it to be too successful.

When do people usually vote in situations like this? I've read through some other newbie games where people started voting pretty soon after lylo started. Since discussion seems to be dying down would that be a good idea or should we push on until near deadline?

[Sobolev Space]

HM, I'm not going to speak for Howard since it seemed like he was more interested in you as a policy lynch rather than having a strong scum read on you. For me, day 2 I thought Sequencer was more likely scum. Day 3 I still thought you were more likely scum than ThinkBig but by the end of the day it didn't look like we could get a lynch on you so I switched to ThinkBig.

[Sobolev Space]

Howard, I'm conflicted about your recent postings. On one hand I think its unlikely you're scum since if you were you could get an easy win today by joining me on an HM lynch. On the other hand post 941 is a pretty unfair representation of my posting history and there are a couple other things that have given me cause for concern:

At this point I'm almost ready to throw out a vote and "good game" because I'm not sure that I can determine who's got me fooled.

I'm going back through Sobolev Space again to build a case. I've tried with Hellfire Missile but there's just nothing.

These seem to be contradictory. To me the last part of post 931 in general read a little weird because it seemed like you were trying to bait someone into a vote. I wanted to wait to see if you acted on it but instead you've gone the complete opposite direction.

You now have strong suspicions on me despite almost clearing me in post 909. Meanwhile you have given good reasons for being suspicious of HM (posts 927, 920 eg.) but now say that you can't find anything in his post history. I agree its hard to look for deliberate contradictions in HM's history due to his posting style (talk about this in the end of post 908) which is why we should have lynched him earlier. But unless you disagree with my assessment of HM's style its unfair to evaluate his posts the exact same way you would evaluate mine.

In general your arguments against me in post 941 are of the form "if Space was scum this action would make a lot of sense" but you don't find many explicit contradictions. I personally find circumstantial evidence like that unmoving but I'll wait to see what you have later today. The only contradictory argument you make is about 215 where I was mostly talking about recency of posting as opposed to overall quantity of posts.

[Sobolev Space]

@Sobolev Space: I'm conflicted and trying to do anything to make a determination. The analysis

is

from a "if Space was scum" point of view. Do you have any specific responses any points?

My argument there was that pointing out contradictions is much better evidence than just circumstantial arguments. If you want my responses to specific points you made I can go point by point but in general the arguments I offered in the posts you linked were all arguments I believed to be true at the time. I think I do a good job of justifying most of my points so if you have problems with the actual reasoning I provide please bring them up. For example you claim that post 450 is suss because I question Locust about wanting a Jackel lynch while I also want to lynch Jackel. In actuality I wanted to lynch Jackel because I thought he was scummy but my question to Locust was specifically about what information we would get from a Jackel lynch since I didn't see it as being particularly informative - I wanted it to get rid of scum.

"On one hand I think its unlikely you're scum since if you were you could get an easy win today by joining me on an HM lynch" reads more like baiting than mine IMHO.

Can you explain what you think I'm baiting here?

[Sobolev Space]

Post 491: I initially didn't believe DayRai's cop claim because of post 266 by Sequencer which got rid of any way for us to verify/disprove the claim. When Locust repeated that claim to disprove Jackel's tracker claim, however, I did believe it (at least more than I believed Jackel's claim) because if he was lying we would have been able to figure it out by someone disproving him that day or d2 (after a Jackel lynch) and would have lynched him. I wasn't really buddying Locust as much as thanking him. I also wasn't trying to distance myself from my vote, I stood by it, I just wasn't sure of norms for voting in situations like that. The intent to vote was always there though unlike, for example, yesterday where I felt more forced into a vote.

Post 506: I told him that if

I

were cop I would investigate Loopdan or Huntress since they were who I was most suspicious of at the time. The part asking him to investigate me was just referring to how he was scumreading me all game, and it makes sense that cop should investigate their strongest scum read to narrow down possibilities quickest. I'm not sure how that was WIFOM necessarily so I can go more in depth if you want.

Post 531: I don't think treating Locust as conf town at that point was suspicious. Sequencer had done the same thing a couple posts earlier in post 524 when they said "If he gives a result, believe him because mafia is betting on us doubting him and lynching him, even though he's 100% confirmed at this point." The reasoning was that given Jackel's flip if Locust was not town someone could disprove his cop claim and town would win day 2 easy (unless he was lying as town which wouldn't make sense). The NK argument I don't really see as being set up in post 531 since Locust later said he got a result which contradicted what I argued in 531. If you want me to go more in depth on post 543 though I can as well.

[Sobolev Space]

@Hellfire Missile: I disagree that Locust was scum reading you; he had mixed thoughts. Human Sequencer is dead so I can't question him on his statement.

Assuming this is addressed to me. That was definitely the impression I got from Locust but if you have any posts that contraindicate that please bring them up.
As for Sequencer, the point I'm making is that at that point treating Locust as confirmed town was not scummy or a scum slip (since Sequencer did it and we know Sequencer was not scum). I gave the reasoning behind my belief in my last post. If you see any flaws with that please bring them up.

ya know, what i've just noticed (pardon my shitty lack of skills) but no one has voted for howard
is it because he's a good player? or has no one noticed him

only time someone voted was huntress, once
i don't know actually

ThinkBig voted for him around the same time and if I recall correctly Joshz had a vote on Howard earlier in the game.

[Sobolev Space]

VOTE: Hellfire Missile

If Howard is scum he can hammer me and game is already over. If he's town then by PoE HM is scum.

I'll be pretty available for the next couple of hours so if Howard or HM have any questions just ask and I'll try to get back to you within an hour.

[Sobolev Space]

I mean yeah if he's scum he can win now. When you voted for me the possibility of lynching Howard went out the window.

[Sobolev Space]

He can vote for either of us and win.

The reason why we can't lynch him now is that there are two possibilities: Howard is scum or town.

If he's scum then as long as you have a vote on me or I have a vote on you he can just hammer and win the game.

This means the only hope I have for winning once you've voted for me is if he's town which by process of elimination means I vote for you. He then gets to choose which of us to hammer.

I suppose we could still lynch him if you and I both unvoted before he logs on but at this point I'm just ready for the game to be over.

[Sobolev Space]

Howard are you scum?

[Sobolev Space]

Damn. Ggs all. Howard definitely had me fooled. Looking forward to playing some more games.