Open 508: The Law of the Jungle (Town Wins!)

[Bulbazak]

"The Law of the Jungle" appears at the end of the story "How Fear Came".

Vote Count:

StubbsKVM (0):
Jennifer (0):
BoroPhil (0):
ChannelDelibird (0):

No Lynch (1): ChannelDelibird

Not voting (3): StubbsKVM, Jennifer, BoroPhil

It is day 5. Town is in Mylo. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Day ends on Friday September 13 at 3:00pm EST or when a majority is reached. Countdown: (expired on 2013-09-13 15:00:00)

[BoroPhil]

Welcome, ChannelDelibird!

Why did you feel the need to post that disclaimer by the way? It starts making my head spin with wifom.

If my math is right (always suspect sadly), we only have 1 mislynch whether we lynch someone today or tomorrow. The only difference is whether we're a man down when deciding on the lynch. So I think the optimal thing to do is to get full discussion with everyone today, then no lynch, then when we're a man down tomorrow, at least we have that person's input and they're conf-town so we can take their thoughts seriously.

are you intending to contribute anymore today?

[StubbsKVM]

Phil, who's your number 1 suspect right now?

[BoroPhil]

I'm going to wait until CDB comes back and/or Jen posts something meaningful before I answer that

[BoroPhil]

in fact, I think Jen is due a prod?

[StubbsKVM]

I'm going to wait until CDB comes back and/or Jen posts something meaningful before I answer that

fair enough.
So... This weather...

[BoroPhil]

is Jelle Vossen any good?

[StubbsKVM]

Pretty good for the Belgian competition. Not sure he can handle a bigger competition.

[Jennifer]

I couldn't find anything on quick no lynching in near-end game. I've only seen discussions on EM vs. Mafiascum philosophy to lynching/no lynching day one and to one of the game variations (not this one) where best thing to do Day 1 is lynch someone quickly.

I still think it's better for us to share our views because we don't have to worry anymore about any evil partners out there. So even if talking would help the wolf figure out who they want to kill, I think it more helps us on who we think is the best lynch.

Right now my order (basically off of gut/memory) from most likely town to most likely wolf is:

Stubbs
BoroPhil
CDB

I should go check again to see whether there is anything with Robo and those slots, but as he was killed Day 1, I don't recall finding much of anything there.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, looking to finish that catchup starting now. Let's see if we can't break this game open.

[Jennifer]

I checked Robo's postings. Nothing really there that I saw. Of us alive, the only one I saw he mentioned was Linxie (CDB), but that doesn't mean much imo because the few others he did mention are dead and not on his team.

I'm going to go back and see if there is anything with Darthe/any sign of hunting seer instead of scum.

[BoroPhil]

Wow. Apparently, this is a shock that y'all disagree with me on this slip. It wouldn't surprise me though if someone in this group of defenders is particularly Darthe's fellow wolf.[/b]

Why do you say that Darth is a wolf and not scum?

Do you know something we don't?

And furthermore, why do you call Stubbs suspicious right after he calls you suspicious?

Titus is looking a little iffy.

Linxie posted one day and 17 hours ago.

Your rules say 72 for a prod and then another 24 for replacement.

I hate to be the guy who argues with the mod, but that is seriously unfair for Linxie.

Unless Linxie requested it?

Post #203 by Smudger was BOOM TOWN, that just tipped the scale from neutral to town in my mind. That's a townie thought process, IMO.

@Boro: Can you do me a favor and make a compact post with a SHORT summary about why you feel Zeofar is scum? I know you've been suspicious of him for most of this game, but I'd like to know what made you really go for it. Just a little numbered list is all, honestly I hate the huge posts. A short succint post will do the job, please.

@Stubbs: In post 189 Jennifer asked you a question. Please answer that.

And, still waiting on Darthe's response. So that's all for now, folks.

Vote on Voodoo is a pressure vote.

You know what really defeats the purpose of a pressure vote? Saying it is a pressure vote.

Reads from a review of the first four pages:

Jennifer looks town
Voodoo too
Stubbs as well
And I like Smudger

I'm really conflicted on Boro because he seems so earnest, his play just doesn't read to me like it could have any intelligent motivation or plotting..
Likewise, no clue on Dyslexicon
Or Lixie.

Titus could be overcompensating
Fairly negative read on Saki for a post style that lends itself to instigation of issues, would love to read a couple of town/scum games
Robo cop I'm very slight scum on for attempting to push easy lynches selectively
Zeofar I find slightly scummy

Pushing easy lynches selectively.

You think that I am scummy.

For pushing easy lynches selectively.

So, I have made one vote this game. On you. So are you saying that you are an easy lynch? And why is that selective? And why did you put plural lynches?

Furthermore, you have a negative read on me, a negative read on Saki for posting style, and you called Boro unintelligibly motivated.

Those three people happen to be on your wagon, and I don't even know what you are calling Titus.

Zeofar is scummy because... nothing apparently because thats all you wrote.

You called Smudger town for liking him.

Listen bro these reads are bogus and I am still perfectly content with you dying.

well that's not really very accurate Jen is it?

[BoroPhil]

Wow. Apparently, this is a shock that y'all disagree with me on this slip. It wouldn't surprise me though if someone in this group of defenders is particularly Darthe's fellow wolf.[/b]

Why do you say that Darth is a wolf and not scum?

Do you know something we don't?

And furthermore, why do you call Stubbs suspicious right after he calls you suspicious?

Titus is looking a little iffy.

Linxie posted one day and 17 hours ago.

Your rules say 72 for a prod and then another 24 for replacement.

I hate to be the guy who argues with the mod, but that is seriously unfair for Linxie.

Unless Linxie requested it?

Post #203 by Smudger was BOOM TOWN, that just tipped the scale from neutral to town in my mind. That's a townie thought process, IMO.

@Boro: Can you do me a favor and make a compact post with a SHORT summary about why you feel Zeofar is scum? I know you've been suspicious of him for most of this game, but I'd like to know what made you really go for it. Just a little numbered list is all, honestly I hate the huge posts. A short succint post will do the job, please.

@Stubbs: In post 189 Jennifer asked you a question. Please answer that.

And, still waiting on Darthe's response. So that's all for now, folks.

Vote on Voodoo is a pressure vote.

You know what really defeats the purpose of a pressure vote? Saying it is a pressure vote.

Reads from a review of the first four pages:

Jennifer looks town
Voodoo too
Stubbs as well
And I like Smudger

I'm really conflicted on Boro because he seems so earnest, his play just doesn't read to me like it could have any intelligent motivation or plotting..
Likewise, no clue on Dyslexicon
Or Lixie.

Titus could be overcompensating
Fairly negative read on Saki for a post style that lends itself to instigation of issues, would love to read a couple of town/scum games
Robo cop I'm very slight scum on for attempting to push easy lynches selectively
Zeofar I find slightly scummy

Pushing easy lynches selectively.

You think that I am scummy.

For pushing easy lynches selectively.

So, I have made one vote this game. On you. So are you saying that you are an easy lynch? And why is that selective? And why did you put plural lynches?

Furthermore, you have a negative read on me, a negative read on Saki for posting style, and you called Boro unintelligibly motivated.

Those three people happen to be on your wagon, and I don't even know what you are calling Titus.

Zeofar is scummy because... nothing apparently because thats all you wrote.

You called Smudger town for liking him.

Listen bro these reads are bogus and I am still perfectly content with you dying.

well that's not really very accurate Jen is it?

[BoroPhil]

oops, didn't plan for those quotes yet. look at the next post as well.

[BoroPhil]

don't first days in mafia invariably end up with 2+ townies fighting amongst themselves, whilst the scum chortle in the background. I'm pretty new to mafia but hitting scum on day one seems to be rare

Hitting scum on day one is indeed rare, but not because townies are throwing up a smokescreen. But rather that people decide to randomly vote someone with the mindset of "we have no information besides what we say, might as well kill someone to get the ball rolling". And in a Newbie game, taking a shot in 9 people is kinda hard to hit two of nine.

But don't let that hold you down, we can increase our odds through proper analysis.

I'm actually wondering if this was a genuine thought or whether you are scum asking a question about scum to make it seem like you aren't scum.

Shrug, former probs

Vote on Voodoo is a pressure vote.

You know what really defeats the purpose of a pressure vote? Saying it is a pressure vote.

Reads from a review of the first four pages:

Jennifer looks town
Voodoo too
Stubbs as well
And I like Smudger

I'm really conflicted on Boro because he seems so earnest, his play just doesn't read to me like it could have any intelligent motivation or plotting..
Likewise, no clue on Dyslexicon
Or Lixie.

Titus could be overcompensating
Fairly negative read on Saki for a post style that lends itself to instigation of issues, would love to read a couple of town/scum games
Robo cop I'm very slight scum on for attempting to push easy lynches selectively
Zeofar I find slightly scummy

Pushing easy lynches selectively.

You think that I am scummy.

For pushing easy lynches selectively.

So, I have made one vote this game. On you. So are you saying that you are an easy lynch? And why is that selective? And why did you put plural lynches?

Furthermore, you have a negative read on me, a negative read on Saki for posting style, and you called Boro unintelligibly motivated.

Those three people happen to be on your wagon, and I don't even know what you are calling Titus.

Zeofar is scummy because... nothing apparently because thats all you wrote.

You called Smudger town for liking him.

Listen bro these reads are bogus and I am still perfectly content with you dying.

Post #203 by Smudger was BOOM TOWN, that just tipped the scale from neutral to town in my mind. That's a townie thought process, IMO.

@Boro: Can you do me a favor and make a compact post with a SHORT summary about why you feel Zeofar is scum? I know you've been suspicious of him for most of this game, but I'd like to know what made you really go for it. Just a little numbered list is all, honestly I hate the huge posts. A short succint post will do the job, please.

@Stubbs: In post 189 Jennifer asked you a question. Please answer that.

And, still waiting on Darthe's response. So that's all for now, folks.

Wow. Apparently, this is a shock that y'all disagree with me on this slip. It wouldn't surprise me though if someone in this group of defenders is particularly Darthe's fellow wolf.[/b]

Why do you say that Darth is a wolf and not scum?

Do you know something we don't?

And furthermore, why do you call Stubbs suspicious right after he calls you suspicious?

Titus is looking a little iffy.

His slip is evidence that he's a wolf not mafia. Not hunting a particular faction is a huge scum tell that a player is a member of the faction not being hunted. His total forgetfullness regarding the wolves in his setup analysis indicates he's a wolf to me. So I'm going to call him a wolf.

I called Stubbs suspicious because he's claiming outing a possible slip is "acting town". That's just not plausible IMO. I am not certain as to whether he is scum yet, but I noticed it. The timing is a bit OMGUS, so I'm holding judgment in case I am victim to that fallacy. Your focus on me could be just as easily argued as OMGUS Robocopter.

I suppose that makes sense.

Not even close to as easily argued. You called me suspicious for saying that I was agreeing with you on Darthe, when in reality I was the first person to even vote and question Darthe. So no, it's not really OMGUS at all, and I called you iffy, not scummy. Iffy because it looked off, but I hadn't given you a chance to explain yourself, which you have now.

That doesn't let you off the hook for the OMGUS, your reason for the Stubbs suspicion is pretty ridiculous. Why isn't it plausible?

This reads like really forced town zealotry. Why try so hard?

Stubbs said that pointing out slips is acting town. It's basic scumhunting not "acting" at al. Stubbs seems to be mudslinging for regular in-game behavior.

Also, your post seems to me much more town here than many of your other previous posts. I'm reconsidering my initial read on you as scummy for not engaging in RVS.

Judging by your join date, I imagine you've never seen a game where the people didn't do RVS. The truth of the matter is that RVS is a tradition, not a strategy, and though it is the traditional way of getting things moving, it is not the only way. It does as much good to fight the tradition and get a reaction as it does to conform to the tradition and get a reaction.

Pretty much, I'm a rebel.

Linxie

Linxie posted one day and 17 hours ago.

Your rules say 72 for a prod and then another 24 for replacement.

I hate to be the guy who argues with the mod, but that is seriously unfair for Linxie.

Unless Linxie requested it?

So that's:

Phil 2 replies, 1 mention
Stubbs 1 reply, 2 mentions
Linx 0 replies, 2 mentions
Jen 0 replies, 1 mention

[BoroPhil]

and fwiw, and feel free to debate this analysis:

Phil - Robo tries to make me look a little bit scummy, nothing major
Stubbs - quite defensive of him, maybe more to attack Titus
Linx (CDB) - zero really. just talking about the unfairness of being replaced.
Jen - nothing direct. asking Stubbs to answer a question she asked.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, I'm caught up! I'll organise my own thoughts and then respond to those questions you posted, Phil.

HEADLINE:

Jennifer is probably the last wolf.

But let's take it player-by-player.

Stubbs

Starting early - in #18, Stubbs makes the first clear effort to actually scumhunt on page 1, rather than dick around. This is a pro-town mindset.

His readslist in #221 shows repeated genuine consideration of what behaviour is most likely to come from town or scum, rather than just farting out reads for the sake of it. Also pro-town.

His quick post here, when there was a wait for Robocopter to get in and respond to Darthe's claim, just isn't what a wolf would do to their only buddy. At this point, the wolf wants to stall as long as possible and hope that the town convince themselves to do something else while they're waiting. It's not overwrought, it's just cold and factual. Pro-town.

There's a similar desire to cut through the bullshit and get scum killed shown here, when he votes Titus in the midst of that almighty Phil-DBK blowout. Again, scum love this kind of fight and would be most interested in commenting on it in the hopes of either prolonging it or creating a false dilemma between the two. Pro-town mindset once more, which I think is continued in posts like this.

Here, I'm pretty sure the wolf wouldn't be so keen on slowing down proceedings. Self-doubt is usually pro-town.

One or two tiny things have bothered me - Robo's quite specific niggle with asking him to respond to an earlier question here could possibly be less harmful buddy interaction - but, overall, I think it's fairly clear that Stubbs is town.

[ChannelDelibird]

Phil

I was a bit meh on his posts in the first couple of pages but I think that's likely not for alignment-related reasons, just differences in approach. Largely, I think Phil's been pretty town, and I certainly think that the sheer rate and intensity of his posting is hard to fake as scum (I got a lesson about this in another game recently and there's definitely something to be said for the most frequent posters being townier).

There's this post by Robocopter when he says of Phil 'this could be genuine or could be scum ... shrug, probably genuine' which looks to me like the sort of post scum like to make because it makes them look like they're considering things but it's actually pretty empty (when you think about it, you can say of any post 'could be genuine, or could be something they're saying to make them look less like scum'). It also sets him up with a reason to add to suspicion of Phil later down the line should he ever need it ('I was wrong at the time but this did make me think he could be scum'). I don't think that's what you'd do to a buddy.

Robocopter again engages Phil shortly afterwards and, rather like the last one, it has a pretty diplomatic tone. This is Robocopter managing his image rather than actually scumhunting and there's no reason to make yourself look good to a buddy. Think this points to Philtown.

In his own posts, I like the doubt and consideration of the options here as town. The confusion reads genuine. Then this post is a good example of his openness and willingness to change his reads - in my experience, scum hold onto their reads for longer as it takes effort to fake reads so you want to get as much use out of each set as you can before you need to pretend to have reasons to get new ones.

[ChannelDelibird]

Jennifer

While I've liked some of her early-day scumhunting, that's not necessarily limited to town and it seems to dry up significantly once Robocopter dies and she can afford no more mistakes. Jennifer's play has been cautious and quiet ever since we lost a wolf, and I don't think that's coincidence.

There's more than that, though - this series of posts has a whiff of 'caught for the wrong reasons'. This is overly diplomatic and safe - making a show of worrying about there being six (Six!) days until deadline but offering no sign of direction as to where the town should go, and playing up the confusion as if there being two factions makes it harder to hunt for scum in general.

The post when she votes Robocopter isn't about Robocopter at all - it's purely addressing Darthe, being as mathematical as possible. There's no mention of Robo at all other than in the vote tags; I think this is scum who know their buddy has to die today and wants to do it emotionlessly to avoid giving away their connection. Town would make a comment about how Robocopter hasn't posted, or

something

looking at both sides of the argument.

This post shows the state of Jennifer's scumhunting compared to her early game. Early on, she would spot inconsistencies, make a case and vote with some confidence - like here, for instance. In #492, she is very robotic with her vote ("My reasoning is his vote on Voodoo") but, rather than exhibit any kind of conviction in her scumhunting, handles Phil with gloves, asking him to co-operate with explaining and clarifying his vote. That's what you'd do to someone on whom you couldn't make your mind up, not who you've voted in that very same post. Jennifer is desperate not to make a splash.

[ChannelDelibird]

- Who would be the easy target scum would want to target for a lynch today/tomorrow

Certainly before replacement, I'm assuming that it would have been Slimer (i.e. me). It's possible that my coming into the game with a fresh perspective might have changed that, but I don't know.

- Who do you think is the last scum

I think it's very likely to be Jennifer.

- Is there anyone who you think is 100% town (or basically someone you wouldn't consider lynching)

I've been burned too many times before to say there's anyone I'd absolutely rule out, but I think Stubbs is pretty close to obvtown.

[BoroPhil]

you have come to a lot of the same conclusions I have about Jen. she has played it very safe and to add with what you have said:

- she voted for me on D1/D2 for pretty rubbish reasons (but confidently put as you say), I called her up on it and she removed it. At the time I thought it was strength and a willingness to change her mind, however it could have been scum worried they were overstretching herself
- I've tried to provoke her a bit with my more recent posts, asking her to contribute more and saying she hasn't been much use. she hasn't responded directly to any of this. wouldn't townJen do so?

Jen - if you are town, what do you think of your performance so far in this game?

Your votes have been
Phil 1 (removed under pressure)
Zeofar 1 (no explanation?)
Robo 1 (At L-1 after unveiling)
Phil (back to me)
Slimer (2nd on)

[StubbsKVM]

Okay. Nice work CDB. Jen, you should probably start acting now.

[BoroPhil]

it is worth noting that if me or Stubbs was the wolf we'd love to piggy-back onto a case like that

[Jennifer]

My "quiet" play of late is solely correlated with how much work has consumed me of late and has nothing to do with anything going on in this website let alone my alignment in this game.

Boro jumping to agree with CDB I'd expect, but not from Stubbs. Why the snarky question?

[BoroPhil]

why would you expect that?