Newbie 1625: American Spring - Day 5 (DL - 08/31)

[stoz]

Hello everyone! This is my second game here. I've never played mafia online anywhere else but I have played it in person a few times.

I still don't "get" RVS, but I guess I'm relived it is over(?) now.

[stoz]

but saying "hi" is the most innocuous, neutral thing a player can say.

I think that might be the point, that scum would say the most neutral thing possible.

For those truly new to the site, it took me until half way through my first game to figure out the links at the very bottom of the page. If you haven't seem them already, there is a "Subscribe Topic" button down the bottom left which will send you emails whenever there is a new post in the thread. In the middle under the "quick reply" box there isa dropdown that lets you view all post in the thread by a single user which people call ISO (isolation). Finally in the bottom right corner under the pagination buttons there is an "Activity Overview" link which shows you how recently each person has posted in the thread. Hopefully that helps someone.

[stoz]

Ok, here are my reads for D1, So far:
...

You forgot me (and only me). I guess I haven't posted much so it is understandable.

but saying "hi" is the most innocuous, neutral thing a player can say.

I think that might be the point, that scum would say the most neutral thing possible.

Wouldn't a scum want to appear town, rather than neutral?

I guess I mean scum would want to draw the least amount of attention to themselves as possible.

[stoz]

And you did it post it then either?

Yeah I am confused too.

Not science your sig says "I resemble that comment" but when I click it I am told that "You are not authorised to read this forum.". Just wondering what it is?

[stoz]

I think a roleclaim would help scum much more than town right now.

[stoz]

I personally feel like thespio and HCL are both town.

This is the conclusion that I came to before I even got to Akuseru's post. It is easy to get into a town vs town fight when there are only a few people posting strong opinions.

As for my reads being crap, you're scum because you declared me to be "obvious" scum after making a career out of castigating me and then removed your vote on me claiming that it was in the interest of hearing from more people.

To me, declaring HCL as obvious scum points more towards Thespio being town. If Thespio was scum he might not want to be as certain so that he looked less suspicious if it was a mis-lynch.

Akuseru, what do you think of Thespio removing his vote even though I'm "obvious" scum and wasn't in danger of being lynched?

And HCL still just wants to tunnel Thespio. I still think that HCL and Thespio are both town, but I would certainly vote HCL before I voted Thespio.

What about VeeGee who pops in to post just so he doesn't get prodded and then votes NotScience with no explanation?

[stoz]

VOTE: VeeGee

Let's do this then?

Is that a policy lynch? Or are there reasons you think he is scum?

[stoz]

Stoz- I'm really bothered. He looks like he's lost so I could understand it from a newbie in his first game but hes already been in one. It looks more like scum feigning lost but it's not something i'm totally confident in

I like to seek clarification from people. Even when what someone says seems obvious, sometimes they actually mean something different, especially as they are sometimes making assumptions about how people play Mafia and some of those people have not been playing very long at all. Less ambiguity also gives less opportunities for scum to hide or twist their previous posts into something different.

Ok, here are my reads for D1, So far:
...

You forgot me (and only me). I guess I haven't posted much so it is understandable.

but saying "hi" is the most innocuous, neutral thing a player can say.

I think that might be the point, that scum would say the most neutral thing possible.

Wouldn't a scum want to appear town, rather than neutral?

I guess I mean scum would want to draw the least amount of attention to themselves as possible.

You see, I find it weird that you are saying this. You seem to be neutralizing every type of statement that anyone is saying. I see scum doing this to avoid any attention unto them.
The rest of your posts seem to come from a fillery perspective since all your posts seem to be about RVs and activity.
VOTE: stoz

You are way off base. In the example above, notsience was suspicious of VeeGee (your slot) because he opened with a "Hi". HCL said that the "Hi" didn't matter, and I disagreed with HCL saying that perhaps notscience was right. I am not neutralising anything, I am agreeing with the initial theory that NotScience put forward.

And let me get this straight, Bulbazoor replaces into a slot that we were already putting pressure on, sees that NotScience finds me suspicious and so jumps in too. Except there are no votes on me yet so he dodges any accusations of jumping on the bandwagon. Nice try.

Also keep in mind that is it not uncommon for newbie scum to replace out when they are under pressure.

Finger of Suspicion: Bulbazoor

[stoz]

Newbies replace out all the time.

Replace outs are null.

I'm partly going off my first (and only) game when I say that. In my first game (1605) we had 3 people replace out of which 2 were scum.

I like to seek clarification from people.

umm...can I ask when/where you've attempted to gather clarification?

Here:

VOTE: VeeGee

Let's do this then?

Is that a policy lynch? Or are there reasons you think he is scum?

[stoz]

This is where I am right now:

Akuseru - 55% town
Has been asking good questions and seems to be putting in a good effort.

JoramvanVugt - 45% town
Seems to be a bit all over the place, probably because of newness. Pretty hard to read though.

Bulbazoor - 40% town
Voted me, I posted a rebuttal and which he completely ignored. His reasons for voting me are flimsy and VeeGee was reasonably suspicious too. Plus the replace-out is not null from my point of view.

Thespio - 70% town
HenryCabotLodge - 70% town
Based on the back and forth a few pages ago I am happy for now to think of both of them as town.

StubbsKVM (SE) - 55% town
Seems pretty consistant. Mounting the kind of defence I would expect to see from town

notscience (SE) - 50% town
Started out with some great questions but has gone pretty quiet lately.

Micc (IC) - 55% town
Great activity. I don't really get his angle on StubbsKVM but he has been asking about other people too.

I understand we have to get this moving because the deadline is in about 5 days and we don't really have any good candidates to lynch yet.

[stoz]

"The kind of defence [stoz] would expect to see from town" O_O? For someone so big on clarification, one would imagine you’d be appalled at StubbsKVM’s No-I-don’t-want-to-elaborate behaviour.

Tell me how I don't want to elaborate.

I am lucky that StubbsKVM posted that quote, until then I had actually missed Akuseru's spoiler tag at the bottom of their post so I had to go back and read it.

Spoiler:

Posts lack substance (mostly game play/theory suggestions or a short comment here and there). Bulba even called it out and stoz’s defence was:

I like to seek clarification from people. Even when what someone says seems obvious, sometimes they actually mean something different, especially as they are sometimes making assumptions about how people play Mafia and some of those people have not been playing very long at all. Less ambiguity also gives less opportunities for scum to hide or twist their previous posts into something different.

I was surprised at this answer since I had stoz down as “guy who posts but doesn’t really post anything”. Most of your posts are NOT clarifications (and if you like to seek clarification from people, you’ve had loads of opportunities to do so…but you didn’t).

As for your current read (my comments are within the quote in red):

This is where I am right now:

Akuseru - 55% town
Has been asking good questions and seems to be putting in a good effort.

Empty read, scum can ask good questions and put “in a good effort”

JoramvanVugt - 45% town
Seems to be a bit all over the place, probably because of newness. Pretty hard to read though.

commentary :/

Bulbazoor - 40% town
Voted me, I posted a rebuttal and which he completely ignored. His reasons for voting me are flimsy and VeeGee was reasonably suspicious too. Plus the replace-out is not null from my point of view.

Reasonably suspicious? How so? You’ve never mentioned that before or explained it here. Did you just decide Veegee was “reasonably suspicious” on the sole reason that he’s being voted by others?

Thespio - 70% town
HenryCabotLodge - 70% town
Based on the back and forth a few pages ago I am happy for now to think of both of them as town.

What about their back and forth makes you think they’re town. There have been a couple of back and forth arguments in the thread between 2 players similar to this one. What makes this exchange so special?

StubbsKVM (SE) - 55% town
Seems pretty consistant. Mounting the kind of defence I would expect to see from town

"The kind of defence [stoz] would expect to see from town" O_O? For someone so big on clarification, one would imagine you’d be appalled at StubbsKVM’s No-I-don’t-want-to-elaborate behaviour.

notscience (SE) - 50% town
Started out with some great questions but has gone pretty quiet lately.

empty read

Micc (IC) - 55% town
Great activity. I don't really get his angle on StubbsKVM but he has been asking about other people too.

If you don’t get the angle why aren’t you trying to understand it or if you don't agree point it out *cough* clarification *cough*.

Re: VeeGee: in particular I found the "I think I'll VOTE: NotScience for now" (Post #77) with no explanation to be suspicious, and to me the replace-out is still not null.

Re: Thespio / HCL: The passion and stubborn-ness of both of them seems hard to manufacture, leading me to believe they both know they themselves are town.

Re: notscience: Yes empty, that is why it is 50% / in the middle / null. Where is the rule that says being unsure about some people means your are not town?

Re: Micc: I thought he had no case against Stubbs, but I learnt early on not to try to defend other players unless you think it is a very very very bad idea for them to by lynched.

Stoz and notscience have been conspicuous by their absence, especially with the suspicions expressed over Stoz. notsicence indicated he didn't have wifi yesterday and would be posting today, so I'm not too vexed over his absence today but I am def looking forward to hearing from him.

Is "broken wifi" all it takes to get a free pass around here?

Why did noone call out that Stoz's reads are primarily based on people's activity?

Activity is useful though because it is easy for scum to lurk and harder for them to put in effort. I guess maybe I don't "get" day one though. I know I am judging on effort and passion, but without any solid information like tracker / detective and role claims what else is there to go on?

Your rebuttal seems pretty defensive, and the omgus is doing nothing to change my stance

What should a rebuttal be if not defensive?

And Joram what are you talking about? Your first vote was on notscience, not HCL.

[stoz]

Is "broken wifi" all it takes to get a free pass around here?

If I don't have a computer to post on I don't have a computer to post on.

So, complain if you want, but I don't understand why you're complaining if you aren't scumreading me.

I'm not complaining at you, I was questioning HCL. HCL was concerned with both of us, but was willing to give you a free pass because you posted that your wifi was out. We've all got plenty of things going on in real life.

I don't like your defending your development of reads based primarily on activity. Somebody can be active and "passionate" and still be full of crap. Using activity as your litmus test of townieness leads to wishy washy reads, another list of which you've posted here.

I haven't posted a second set of reads. What you quoted above was my response to Akuseru's criticism.

The longer someone pursues something passionately, the harder it is for them (and the more opportunity to slip up), which weeds out bad scum players (increasing the likelihood they are town). So either you and Thespio are town or godly scum (and I don't think you're godly scum).

HCL, what is the alternative to base your reads on at this stage of the game?

[stoz]

Coming in real quick to say that my lynch pool is somewhere in Stubbs, Thespio and Stoz and that wagon consolidation is something that should happen in like the next 24 hours. And that im tired and going to bed but my plan for tomorrow is to review the early game and figure out who in that group i feel best about being scum.

Joram's recent posts haven't done anything to re-assure me, so my preference for lynching is currently Joram, Bulbazoor, not science and then StubbsKVM in that order.

VOTE: stoz

Choo choo

Tickets please!

Anything you wanted to add not science? You were "not totally confident" that I was "scum feigning lost" and you didn't like the method behind my reads?

[stoz]

I try to figure out people's motivation for posting things. More concretely, I look for inconsistency in logic, nonsensical arguments and votes, and try to see if somebody has a specific voting pattern. Amount of activity does figure into it to a degree, but I don't automatically associate an active player with being pro-town, nor do I see a lurky player as scummy by default. It all depends on the content of their posts. If a player who lurks just pops in from time to time and doesn't post anything substantial I find that scummy, which is what I'm seeing from you.

Thanks for engaging with me, it's a good, clear explanation of how to improve my reads.

Let me says this: I am town.

I know I was a bit sporadic with my posts at first and at the start of the game I really did not know what to say. Now the issue that I face is that lots and lots of discussion happens when I'm asleep (Australia). For example, yesterday I posted early in the morning, I got 1 reply from Micc and 1 reply from not science, a vote count, and then 13 hours later I posted again before heading to bed, then I wake up to 2 additional pages of discussion. I know that makes it seem like I'm not engaging but it does not make me scum. And this whole "you are anti-town / playing bad" is a self-fulfilling prophecy once everyone turned against me.

My "tickets please" comment was to draw attention to the fact that not science was hiding the reason for his vote behind a joke. Not science's role blocker theory sounds nice, but isn't there a tell along the lines of "the first person to speculate about the setup is scum?". I also don't like the continued jokes he is making (snowflake? what?). I am very suspicious of not science and I think that is the first place you should be looking should I get lynched.

A counter-theory to not science's RB theory: If Joram knows mafia are goon / goon, there is a 50% chance for tracker, 25% chance for jailkeeper and 25% chance for cop. That means if he gets targeted there is a 75% chance that he will be clean / not affected as long as his scum partner is the one performing the night kill.

VOTE: JoramvanVugt

[stoz]

The wagon on me went:

Bulbazoor
Akuseru
notscience
Akuseru (off)
Thespio
Joram
Thespio (off)
Thespio
Thespio (off)

I am not sure what to make of it yet.

@Notscience, what do you think of Joram misrepresenting his mafia experience?

Also especially this close to the deadline, StubsKVM needs a prod.

[stoz]

He also didn't place a vote the whole game until his second to last post where he votes JoramvanVugt, a wagon which is conveniently enough gaining steam. All that said, I'm cautious of lynching him myself because I don't necessarily feel comfortable with having inactivity being a primary factor in finding somebody scummy and his play has been much better/substantive as of late (but I guess that's to be expected when the pressure's on).

I agree I am not very confident in placing votes and I should get better at it, because votes are both a useful tool and a useful piece of information to go back and look at. Having said that my conservative voting is very consistent with my last game.

HCL, I myself don't understand notscience and his confidence in his stoz and joram's reads, however if he was scum, it would be highly inefficient to go against a bandwagon (ie: Joram's). They just need to kill any townie right? Why not just go with the flow? I feel like you condemning him for going against the popular opinion isn't a good criteria to base your vote, especially when going against "the flow" doesn't benefit scum in anyway. Just something I'd like you think over.

That being said, notscience could still be scum just planning out/building his town meta early on, but at this point in time it isn't enough for me to overlook the more suspicious players in the game.

I wouldn't call it "going against the flow." Stoz had the most votes for awhile and a lot of players said they'd be alright with his lynch. It's not like notscience is pushing for a lynch on someone from out of nowhere who has had no doubts cast upon them. Stoz was almost universally scumread, the pressure on him was alleviated only very recently.

It's also the manner in which he does and how he implies that it's scummy to look for other lynch candidates before deadline. notscience has established a playstyle that's very diffident and vague. More than a few times people have expressed difficulty in reading him one way or another and are content to pass him over for suspicion in favor of other players (as you do here). Isn't that a perfect position for scum to be in- inscrutable and universally unsuspected? It's even more pronounced when you look at his posting in the first few pages of the game- active, engaged, inquisitive- as opposed to the style he's recently adopted.

About Joram, there's the possibility that notscience is protecting him for whatever reason. It could be that he is legitimately just townreading him (though he has not seen fit to explain to us why), but I'm not willing to discount the possibility that it's because they're scum partners.

It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that I would be fine with lynching notscience (who is a he btw Thespio). One thought I had was that if notscience is scum and Joram is not, there is very little risk in notscience defending Joram. If not science succeeds in redirecting the lynch to anyone else he gets a less-scummy and potentially better playing player lynched, and if he fails, he still gets town points because he was "right" about Joram when he flips town.

In general terms, it is low risk, high reward for scum to defend a bad / scummy looking player that they know is town.

well i dont even care about this anymore

thespio shut the hell up and stop calling me a liar, you are the scum here you are maffia and i hope you get lynched day 2.
im gone i wont read this thread anymore. people keep calling me a liar when i have never ever lied, i role claim and you just ignore it and go on about me being maffia. gg hope maffia wins retarded town doesnt even deserve this

As others have pointed out, you shouldn't ever give up and you shouldn't ever play against your win condition. Even in death you should be trying to win, either baiting people who you think are scum or setting up your scum partner to not look scummy. If you really really don't care, ask the mod for an extension and replace out (although you seemed to have calmed down a bit in your more recent post).

I'm still ok with lynching Joram for his lies and for stalling in answering Micc for so long, but if he flips town I know where I will be looking.

[stoz]

I am not moving my vote.

I am not switching.

I can see that.

The game moves on and yet both you and notscience refuse to address anything new, you just quote and repeat your old points.

[stoz]

Ugh some of you are so infuriating.

So I am supposed to address the wagon, but not by discrediting it? So I should NOT prove that the arguments in the wagon have little merit? I do not understand AT ALL what you mean by addressing the wagon "other than a discredit".

Bulbazoor could you please summarise your case against me if it is so good? Because this everything I could find:

#151: I was "neutralizing every type of statement that anyone is saying". What you quoted was an exchange where notscience claimed a legitimate read based off "hi", HCL disagreed, I said "I can see the point notscience is trying to make", veegee disagreed with me and I backed up / rephrased my initial point. I made this same point I am making right now in #152 and nowhere has Bulbazoor acknowledged it, except to say that it was "defensive".

Bulbazoor: Can you provide any other examples of me "neutralizing" statements? This one above makes no sense because there was an argument with 2 sides and I was on one side of the argument, so of course I can't agree with both sides of the argument. Notwithstanding that above is also touchy because I was backing up NS's initial read on your slot.

"The rest of your posts seem to come from a fillery perspective": Day one in my last game was really fillery, I only felt like I really had much of a handle on who people were once we were in day 2. Obviously thinking I could ride out day 1 and try to piece it together with more information on day 2 looks really scummy, but as I said I really do not know how to read people on day one.

#204: My rebuttal was "defensive". Bulbazoor also doesn't like that I am suspicious of him for voting me for what I see as bad reasons

#215: "I thini I like my vote for now. This slot was very defensive upon my cqlling them out and they even decided to scumread me because I was scumreading them. That only made my read drift downwards to even more scummy because all he has ever done so far is defend himself when any accusation comes out and even townread stubbs, which is a very scummy player. I barely agree with anynof his reads and their interactuons seem to come from a veery overdefensive stance. And the fact that he even said he scumreads me more than anyone else but never introduces a vote on me is very horrible."

If you want to back that first sentence up a bit, we can see that initially I backed up NS which was scum reading your slot, and I was putting pressure on your slot (#121) then you came in and scum read me. Then you call me out for scum reading you "in response", even though it is quite possible you are scum reading me "in response" to my initial thoughts towards VeeGee.

This is not a criticism of Bulbazoor, but apparently here I am too defensive for Bulbazoor but now other people are telling me I am being not defensive enough of the wagon against me?

Doesn't like my thoughts on Stubbs.

"I barely agree with anynof his reads and their interactuons seem to come from a veery overdefensive stance." -> No idea what "their interactuons seem to come from a veery overdefensive stance" even means.

I have admitted in #390 that I should be quicker to vote.

#268: Bulbazoor doesn't like me drawing attention to NS's lack of explanation for jumping on my wagon.

#330: Quoted #204 and added a letter "G"

#331: Quoted #215

#351: "I am not moving my vote."

#391: "I am not switching."

#394: "Stlz is scum. Joram is not. Scum does not simply come out with the responses he has been. Stop trying to discredit him."

#339: "Notscience is fine. But I will not change."

#403: "Unlike stoz. Who is trying to switch into another wagon.
That is not him of course. There is a difference between stoz getting over defensive and joram trying to actually live and follow his reads."

Again I am defensive but Joram is not when he totally freaks out and threatens to play against his win-con.

#413: "I have my case on stoz."

Also:
#325: Why should we ignore Joram on other sites if he has admitted it is him?

@not science, is it true you just finished a game with Bulbazoor? If so, did he do any of this "I will not change" stuff in that game, and if so, did it work for him?

Like Micc, I've lost too much sleep over this as well. I don't want Day 1 to end up in a no-lynch (I totally stuffed that up Day 2 of my last game) so I will check back here before I go to bed.

[stoz]

Ok no posts so heading to bed (10pm here). Deadline is 2pm here tomorrow so I will check again in the morning and / or at lunch.

[stoz]

Stoz please claim.

I am 100% VT.

Stoz seems more like scum trying to get joram lynched and then goes off to accuse the one who started a wagon on him.

If I was scum, why would I not have just focused 100% on Joram? He would be the easiest by far to lynch considering the votes he has already received and that he lied to the whole town. How would accusing the one who started a wagon on me help me as scum?

The passion that Joram displays make me think there is a reasonable chance he is town. But I know there is a 100% chance I am town. So yes I would rather lynch NS, and yes I will vote Joram, but I will not be surprised when he flips town.

And what information do people hope to gain when I flip? Because that justification was used a lot in my last game and it resulted in lynching town every time.

I am doubtful that Bulba / NS scum would act in such unison, but I am sure that one of them has to be scum.

[stoz]

if anything, we can also draw conclusions from the wagon based on how the lynchee flips.

I will flip town, so why don't you start drawing conclusions now and find the scum before I am lynched? A couple of people are pushing really strong on me and the rest of the town is like "yeah-kinda-maybe". That shouldn't make me a good candidate.

[stoz]

I am doubtful that Bulba / NS scum would act in such unison, but I am sure that one of them has to be scum.

Whichever one of you is actually really town, please take a long had look at the other. Just read the other ones posts and think about it and see where it leads you.

[stoz]

Well there are 3 of us, lets go then: VOTE: notscience

[stoz]

No we don't need another claim today. Two is already one too many.

Then why did you ask me to claim?

[stoz]

I think I'm dead now, so I'll just say I hope you get the information that town needs. I lost my first game so town please don't screw this up and make me go 0-2.

Also see Bulba back-pedalling already.

[stoz]

After all this I think JoramvanVugt is probably the only one I would be sure is town.

[stoz]

As yes, I am town. Why would I lie now that I am lynched and it can't be undone?

How does it feel bulb?

How does it feel NS?

[stoz]

And NS why self-hammer? Town shouldn't ever self-hammer because you are lynching someone confirmed town.

[stoz]

I'll still be watching and I will greet the NK in the dead thread. I dunno if I'll join another queue immediately, this turned out to be quite stressful.

[stoz]

Town should have lynched Joram so long ago, with all his lying and flailing. He turned out to be a massive liability.

I would have actually been relieved if Thespio was the last scum.

My lessons:

As a power role, consider what will happen if you die that night.
Lynch All Liars -> scum wants to keep bad players around.
Replace-outs are scum

[stoz]

Replace-outs are scum

Your last one has a slight statistical advantage overall from what I've read, but in my experience as a mod, the replace out rate for new players is high, period, regardless of alignment.

This was mostly a tongue in cheek reference as during the game I tried to use it to support my claim that bulba was scum and I got shouted down.

Having said that, I have played 2 newbie games now and 3 people replaced out of each game and both times 2 of those 3 were scum (and if you don't count Thespio as a replacement because it happened right at the start then it is 2 out of 2 in this game!) Those statistics are even worse when you remember only 2 out of the 9 slots are scum in the first place.

Thanks for modding fferyllt and thanks for keeping my company in the PT when there was no kill the first night.

[stoz]

I was not newbscum. Vee hadput me in a hard situation tbh.

No but VeeGee was.

[stoz]

Well i misplayed this hard...

FFS, when i voted Aku everything inside me said vote bbt not aku and i voted aku :S

Why, what? This doesn't even make any sense.

I'm with Aku that Thespio seemed pretty convinced that Aku was town, so he should have held out longer to vote Aku. If Aku and Thespio both voted BBT then if Joram wanted to end it quickly he would have had to vote for BBT too.

[stoz]

While we are talking about that what is the difference between Normal and Open games?