Mini Normal 1873 (Game Over)

[Lexa]

Checking in, first game on this site, looking forward to it!

[Lexa]

VOTE: All Alone

[Lexa]

Why?

Will respond to this in full when it becomes appropriate to do so

[Lexa]

Why?

Will respond to this in full when it becomes appropriate to do so

And it's not appropriate now because?

Of reasons that will be apparent when it is appropriate

[Lexa]

Why?

Will respond to this in full when it becomes appropriate to do so

And it's not appropriate now because?

Of reasons that will be apparent when it is appropriate

Is your favorite team the dodgers? Because you must really like dodging the question,

Blue jays all the way baby

[Lexa]

Yep. Piccolo taught you how to dodge pretty well Gohan.

I see you're taking lessons in the 'annoy people until they give you what they want' school of scumhunting eh

There's a condition to my responding in full that has yet to be fulfilled that I expect to be soon. Simple as that.

[Lexa]

LA through Tuesday

<<< Acknowledged. >>>

[Lexa]

Moreso than I've already been, I mean

[Lexa]

Fine. I'll be patient and wait look a good child.

The condition for my posting reasoning for my vote on All Alone has now been fulfilled. That condition was All Alone posting so as to see possible reaction / lack thereof in response to my vote.

Prior to my joining this site and signing up for this game I spent some time reading through a couple of the longer games on this site to get a feel for how the game was approached here (sidenote: super helpful, scumhunting tactics I picked up made me so much better in the game I'm currently in on my main site). One of the games in particular featured both All Alone and Alisae, providing a reference point for meta reads. At the time of my vote, Alisae had several votes on him as a result of his posting style and I decided that adding additional pressure to him was less beneficial than putting pressure on All Alone in an attempt to create reactions to base reads on him from.

Based on that previous game that I had read (which I believe is still ongoing last time I looked ~a week ago), I am reasonably confident that Alisae is town. His actions this game are entirely consistent with his behaviour in the previous game and his scumhunting, while arguable how effectual it is, follow similar patterns. That being said, I'm not willing to consider them a lock town at this point in time as their posting style inherently creates a looooot of noise that can hide more legitimate tells on them.

All Alone having posted is now grounds for me to place a FoS on them. Their previous meta as I interpreted it had them being, while not necessarily a lot more active, considerably more proactive in their scumhunting tactics. Their post 285 shows them unvoting as their only post of content since RVS based on "not wanting their vote anywhere" right now. While I'm willing to give this a pass for players who are more actively using their vote and have shown some kind of previous commitment to reads, his lack of activity on that front means that his unvote here looks considerably more like a scum who doesn't want their vote to be tied to someone they can be held accountable to for their opinions should they unvote and wagon in the future.

Posts from AA/Alisae have been my focus since game start, I'll likely wall post later in the week after I come off low activity and have been able to take some time to reread the thread and consider posts at more than face value.

[Lexa]

Forgot to mention the other thing which was that based on that game I had a fairly strong picture of how Alisae played while my picture of All Alone was less definitive and I wanted to firm that up immediately

[Lexa]

I'll likely wall post later in the week

Noooo.

Be concise or your points are drowned in your own words

Wall posts can be concise. There's just so much content and I intend to get as clear a picture on things as possible that even concise posts on the game (considering I haven't been actively posting to compensate) will require a considerable amount of writing in all likelihood.

[Lexa]

I'll likely wall post later in the week

Noooo.

Be concise or your points are drowned in your own words

Wall posts can be concise. There's just so much content and I intend to get as clear a picture on things as possible that even concise posts on the game (considering I haven't been actively posting to compensate) will require a considerable amount of writing in all likelihood.

Where do you play?

My user name here is different from on that site because I don't want common associations between the two which is a roundabout way of saying I'd rather not say.

@Lexa,
I prefer players to do real time interactions over wall catch up posts because real time is a lot harder to fake reads on players. So when you want to talk about something, make an opening statement, let someone talk to you and discuss it; like right now let's do it.

Who in the game is giving you the bad vibes?

I generally agree, though I don't have much time, class in the morning. I've been mostly reading on mobile and looking for All Alone posts so specific players haven't jumped out at me too much yet (hence the majority of my motivation for taking time to read back through the thread).

Obviously All Alone isn't rubbing me the right way. You are actually giving me odd vibes, on the surface you seem extremely towny but I'm catching hints of asking a lot of questions and pushing activity without especially contributing new information yourself which is an effective strategy where I play.

karnos and jordan are the obvious picks given how they've been argued for but I'm less interested in them right now than I am in going back and looking at the content from the people who started pressuring them

[Lexa]

Life is slightly less hectic now, beginning my full game analysis soon, hopefully to have it done within a day

[Lexa]

I also think at the very least we shouldn't hammer until Lexa makes their catchup post. I don't like the way Lexa comes in at L-1 and says they will make a catch up post in the next day or so. Makes it look like they don't want to contribute much.

I was vla until yesterday and there's 30 pages to go through. Not really my fault of the timing is at L-1.

[Lexa]

End of day. I intend to do so assuming hammer doesn't occur before then

[Lexa]

Sorry folks, got through my full thread analysis but ran out of time to look at the vote count and isos before work. So much for waiting to hammer eh? Assuming the mod locks the thread some time in the next 9 hours (and that I'm alive to d2) I'll have the wall post ready to go for d2 start.

Can provide my reads list based on the thread as a short-term substitute.

So-towny-it-hurts: {shannon, PranaDevil}
Moderate-town-lean: {LQ, jordan}
Null-town: {Garmr, ThinkBig}
Null-scum: {Alisae, Gin, BBT}
Moderate-scum-lead: {All Alone}
Lynch-them-already: {pepchoninga}

[Lexa]

@Lexa, you're up.

Ready when I get off work in 4.5h

[Lexa]

As promised, game review pre-jordan flip

Posts that I don't reference I either think are irrelevant to the game or full NAI, or I missed it

Spoiler: Game flow comments

Shannon gets a slight town-note due to karnos's vote in 22, retrospectively considering his flip the RVS vote would be less likely to be on a scumbuddy.

Alisae slight scum points for 28, pushing obvious sarcasm as a scumslip to create a wagon. All Alone shares the scum points for jumping on the wagon at 32.

LicketyQuickety's 80 is a bad post but with towny reasoning.

Jordan's 86 is super weird. Like, really really weird. I don't understand how he goes from being uninvolved with the conversation/quote wagon to attacking LQ as aggressively as he is, especially without putting down a vote. All of his wording here feels like it's designed to create pressure out of nothing given a lack of escalation beforehand, yet not putting a vote down suggests that it's not coming from a place of legitimate belief. Moderate scum points.

Garmr and LQ are unlikely scumbuddies

Given the flip, Jordan looks townier for this, that's a heavy bus to push that early in the game.

138 was a post I took notice of early game. Ime scum are less likely to bring in outside sources of hunting so shannon pointing out awkward phrasing reflects well on her. A second look does suggest that garmr's post is weirdly written, though hard to draw specific inferences from that other than a note to watch for other future posts.

shanon is so obv town it hurts. Support for scum!jordan

188Bussing a scumbuddy? Or misdirecting the wagon? Given previous thoughts Jordan looks good as town.

The irony of 199 with the earlier discussion about misspelling being a scum tell is amusing. NAI though.

shannon pls marry me

Jordan at 219 continuing to bus karnos, he's approaching lock town as karnos was the only major wagon at this point and bussing his so hard would be hugely irresponsible for scum imo. Really hard to see this as scum theatre.

<3 LQ for being open minded about WIFOM as a legit hunting tactic

Gin at 245 possible distancing from scum buddy? Note to investigate.

By 259 I'm not liking Pep's lurking. No content to this point and this post adds no new information while directing the game towards a relatively likely tvt interaction.

Note to self: lots of posts by gin, little contribution by 271.

PranaDevil's 279 is NAI for me but the depth of content reflects well on their interest level being one I would expect town to have. Very slight town points.

All Alone still looks like shit for 285

Note to self: would be lovely if I could get a read on Alisae, so many posts with so little to definitively grab onto

Liking LQs analysis in 327. Garmr has been giving me a weird vibe I can't put my finger on yet from his posts to this point so I appreicate LQ helping me not think I'm crazy.

My 337 placing a FoS on All Alone.

My 348 with mild suspicion on Gin. Rereading the thread I maintain the suspicion to this point, Gin has been acting very similarly to how I've seen experienced scum act on my home site per the actions laid out in that post.

Prana's 365 and shannon's 367 are both slight-towny

Really liking LQs explanations of his alternative ways of analyzing things as in 373

Gin is really bugging my weird strings. The whole stretch of posts leading up to 389 is so odd. I can see scum!Gin latching onto LQ as someone getting town read and attempting to link LQs credo to his own by suggesting they "town-jam" together. Without having pushed much in the way of town posts hismself I can't see where town!Gin makes that suggestion.

And then more theory speak over game speak at 394! All these small things have added up into a small scum lean on Gin.

Disagree with whoever said that AAs 399 was towny, his reasoning isn't good and countering with the expectation of being held to his votes is as basic as it gets. NAI.

And of course 400 is hilaribad

Really dislike BBTs 403. Mostly because this is the first post that I actually notice of theirs. 16 pages and all you have to contribute is that you've picked up town reads? Retrospectively this post has a strong scent of scum active lurking. Small scum lean.

And Prana is totally right for calling out AA and BBT at 410, though the post itself is NAI.

Alisae's 415 is interesting actually. On the surface I would have completely missed it because it aligns with my internal narrative against AA but taken on its own this could easily be Alisae either directing a mislynch or distancing from a scumbuddy. Slight scum points to Alisae.

asfghasfghg

Note to self: brain slowing down, careful with future reads.

Jesus how has pepchoninga gone unnoticed? 434 he says "this is my playing". He hasn't contributed anything and somehow isn't getting read or pressured!!! I have imagine

someone

on the scum team would have noticed and pushed him by now. Moderate scum points given here.

IN POST EDIT: Upgraded to major scum points, popped my head into his iso and holy fuck someone vote his ass.

Confirmed my read on the above, the posts leading up to 444 are such obvious attempts to bus the top wagon in karnos and gain town points. And then immediately flip flops at 451 giving karnos a softball set up to deflect pressure away from him. Pep is top scum read at this point.

SelfNote: ThinkBig subs in here

All NAI from thinkbig so far. TB can you tell me what WOTC means from here? I'm taking a wild guess that it's not wizards of the coast.

Dislike 474, easy way to set up scum theater if it goes unpunished. Probably less likely than the other possibilities so far though.

I disagree with LQ at 487 but his posts have increasingly solidified a town read.

AAs 514 reads towny, but it being purely a defense post means it could easily be scum defense as well. Still no contribution of content. Gin's 518 following up AAs 514 is both accurate and recements the FoS into a moderate scum read on AA.

shannon and Prana, still town af from 536/542

ThinkBig's 545 is a very curious moment. Calling L-1 when it was actually L-3 could easily be a simple error but I don't like the way it immediately halted the AA wagon.

Gin's 558 looks very towny on the surface, not something it seems like a lot fo players had considered. That being said, also very easy for a scum to use that theory to direct the "town finder" to a scum on the wagon. Confirms my previous read that Gin is being very surface town with potential scum motivations.

Alisae's 569 only makes sense if they town read AA or are scumbuddies with him.

I really like LQs defense of ThinkBig following the above post, in particular 600. I really appreciate his alternative methods and they seem very town oriented to me.

Garmr's reasoning in 627 is very towny, especially in light of the flip. Albeit I disagree with his conclusion but the logic required to get there is very good.

shannon is the best. 637 is (yet again) super super towny. No reason for scum!shannon to post those associations based on voting history and provides excellent future reference points. Interestingly, reinforces the idea that AA and Alisae could be scumbuddies from 569.

jordan and karnos concludes around 650 and on reinforces that jordan is probable town barring scum theater to distance jordan from karnos.

Prana at 719 pretty much locks them into town with shannon. So much town bleeding from this post.

All Alone's 752 through 758 continue to be pure reactionary response that could easily come from either alignment with a lack of added content that would suggest them as town. Maintain scum read.

Spoiler: ISO comments

Nope, life got in the way

Summary:

So-towny-it-hurts: {shannon, PranaDevil}
Moderate-town-lean: {LQ, jordan}
Null-town: {Garmr, ThinkBig}
Null-scum: {Alisae, Gin, BBT}
Moderate-scum-lead: {All Alone}
Lynch-them-already: {pepchoninga}

Alisae+AA possible scum team

[Lexa]

pls don't shoot 4 walls gin

[Lexa]

Sure it is

[Lexa]

@Lexa why are you giving Jordan a moderate town read; he flipped town overnight..

I posted my post as it was before his flip, when it was almost ready when the day ended. Figured it was more helpful to leave the thought process behind my reads on him than go back and remove them

[Lexa]

So Lexa, don't like walls, they're catch up posts and you just report what happened. What are you pushing for right now?

VOTE: Pepchoninga

From my analysis they've been by far the scummiest player and I don't agree with the scum!LQ theories

[Lexa]

So Lexa, don't like walls, they're catch up posts and you just report what happened. What are you pushing for right now?

Also I don't care if you don't like walls, it's concisely written so go read it. Especially read the analysis but I guess that's just "reporting what happened" right?

[Lexa]

I town read LQ, I don't find Garmr's arguments compelling, I find his quotes heavily cherrypicked, and I have three scum reads on the LQ wagon

[Lexa]

Here's the thing Lexa that I'm starting to pick up on. Scum are not good at, or choose not to participate in heated discussion. When you have to think of things quickly, it gets harder to produce thoughts that push a scum agenda as you can't manipulate the information but are forced to give out what you think. That's the meat and potatoes of a townie. So far with you doing only catch up posts and describing "this post is scummy and this one isn't" leaves you with being able to give scum reads, look like you're contributing but the key here is that you are not pushing shit.

You didn't even have a vote at the end of your analysis.

I got home and literally c/ped my notepad of my post from when it was completed during n2. Or did you miss that?

Oh wait of course you did because you didn't read my post because "omg walls"

At the time I posted there had been four additional pages of content, dropping a vote outright there is irresponsible at best

[Lexa]

Primary reasoning: I find his arguments heavily cherrypicked ref post: 928

Suggesting that LQ is scum based on karnos trying to link LQ to garmr is weak at the best of times, suggesting that he's linking LQ to garmr to try and hide him is pure speculation, especially given his assertion that karnos is amateur scum where you can just as easily say that karnos is trying to push a scum team. This argument carries zero weight with me

Second response he cherrypicks a post out of a series of bickering posts between LQ and jordan claiming that this somehow represents a false claim. This is complete air.

I find post 183 completely NAI so that's more of a disagreement on what the most means than disagreeing with garmr's argument specifically

Ironically garmr does the same thing you accuse me of in 692, just saying something is bad without saying why

[Lexa]

Lexa you made that during N1?

Just because i hate it doesn't mean I don't read it so fuck off and give actual reasons why you don't think Garmr is right.

I was getting there sheesh

[Lexa]

If LQ is your fucking town read you'd best be defending him hard at L-1

Per my review I've found the vast majority of alignment indicative things LQ has done to be towny or town-oriented. I cannot support a lynch on him especially when his wagon is composed of mostly scum and null reads, especially when I have much stronger scum reads available to be lynched like pep who somehow has still avoided any and all scrutiny.

[Lexa]

I now find that there is a large contradiction in LQ's play. (Thanks Gramr, I think I was buddied because I love theory talk )

Well in the theory talk that LQ was explaining to me, he found it very AI the way people posted and that's how he got a read on him. This game he linked was a town game of Karnos. If what LQ says is what he believes, that means he would think Karnos is in fact town but he sat at null. I don't think it was really that hard to understand you either voted for Karnos cuz he was scummy to you or he was town. I find it odd that he remained null for the longest of times...

Oh, and trying to derail a wagon on a person he didn't think was town :p I'll derail any town wagon I see, even at one vote (as I did with ThinkBig), but I actually sometimes vote my null reads (ask Alisae lmfao) because it helps me discover more about their alignment and how they handle the wagon.

Those voting Karnos, I want you to look at this game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=66922

P-Edit: Mastina notice me

<<< You're my favorite student.
...no, it doesn't matter that you're my ONLY student, my statement still stands as accurate anyway! >>>

The argument you base your stance on him here is

heavily

contingent in LQ believing karnos is town based on him having a previous town game and assuming he would have the same meta. Without speaking for LQ if I'm reading someone I'm not using meta solely to determine their alignment, I'm accounting for it but I'm not claiming them as town or scum solely based on how their meta tone matches up to previous games, especially not earlier in a day before they've made any claims or statements or actions to compare their meta to.

Wagon derailment is a reasonable argument

[Lexa]

What post (hyperbole warning) screamed town to you? You like to reference posts to explain your reads so I don't doubt you can do me this courtesy to build a town case on LQ.

I referenced several towny posts in my catchup post, the towniest post to me was 600 in defense of ThinkBig. I found his reasoning solid and town motivated, it was a risky defense for scum~LQ to make at the time given the momentum gaining towards him and the only scum motivation I could see would be scum buddies - something risky in and of itself given the clear linkages it establishes between the two.

[Lexa]

The basis in why I say that is because later on he actually says he will go out of his way to prove that the post formatting is town!Karnos in Evidence A.

Evidence B is 3 quotes showing that he HEAVILY relies on using that as part of his reads as that is apparently what he is really good at, what he uses to form opinions.

So yes, I fully believe that given "LQ's special type of meta" and how he portrayed it, that he would town reading Karnos pretty hard but he didn't. He was at a null.

Spoiler: Evidence A

Why point out that the post formatting is the same, if it doesn't mean anything Lickety?

Because its evidence that if he is Scum there is no gaping holes in his game by even appearance of his posts. This indicates someone who would be rather proficient as a Scum player if he is Scum in this game.

I often observe and notice things other people don't consider. This is one of those things.

Honestly his format isn't the same if there's so much difference through.

Do I really have to go "Ham" and point out how they are similar, because I totally will.

Spoiler: Evidence B

Post formatting is not alignment indicative. I'm sorry but it's silly.

How do you know this? Have you even had a conversation about it before?

You're judging a book in the means if it's a hardback or a softback cover. You need to actually analyze the reading inside the book. The rest doesn't matter.

Now, what you might be getting at is a person naked voting as scum and then voting with reasoning attached to the same post as town. If that's it, then I understand that.

However if you're saying it's alignment indicative in a person in how they format posts, ya know basically the aesthetic part of making a post, then I'm just going to say it's silly.

Nope, nope, nope. Disagree so much with you on that. The aesthetic stuff is actually really really good to look at. Reason: Hardly anyone thinks to adapt their game that way. Also, meta tells are almost never as you describe them. Its about what that person plays like, not making a list of things they do or don't do as either alignment. If that is the way you do meta tells, then you will have to play many more games with the same person to be able to get a solid info base, which btw, changes all the time. Its about reading the personality of the player, not a categorical methodology.

And its not whether its hard cover or soft cover. Its about what the paragraph structure is like, what the diction used is like, what is the range of emotions that person exhibits in their play.

If after post game this ends up working, I'll consider looking more into your theory work. I am of the opinion that if anyone has any literary talent, they can easily fake emotions. I personally hold more weight to a persons argument and how they present it over emotions. I'm more of the objective over the subjective reader if you catch my drift.

I use both but I am better at subjective stuff.

Compelling argument. I don't necessarily agree that he would be town-reading karnos but I can entertain the possibility.

Why do you think that him not town-reading karnos when you think he should be is scum-indicative? Why does that outweigh his other contributions that (imo) are considerably town-oriented?

[Lexa]

I town read LQ, I don't find Garmr's arguments compelling, I find his quotes heavily cherrypicked, and I have three scum reads on the LQ wagon

Honestly I think your scum reads are pretty shit well the ones on the LQ wagon at least. As alisae,All alone and gin are town reads of mine.

I'm not exactly surprised that my reads differ from someone whom I've marked for close attention

Also your trying to use cherry picking to try and discredit a reasoning? Addressing the reasoning itself would be better lol.

I believe I've done so in reponse to gin

Also you're dodging the interactions between LQ and karnos.

Clarify which ones for me? I may have missed it in responding to other parts of posts

[Lexa]

Here's the thing. This game is about psychology. One thing I'm actually going to do some theory work is the reaction caused by two scums and having one buddy the other.

Ya see, scum don't like calling their scum partners scum because they don't actually want them lynched, they also don't want to call their scum partners town because they don't want to take any heat for "town reading" someone when they flip scum.

So it is common scum psychology and henceforth the scum motivation to provide a town case for Karnos while not actually out right saying he thinks Karnos is town to not draw attention

I agree that this is often the case. I contend that it's also common for town to be cautious in labeling people scum or town while also building a case for similar reasons, either to avoid being pressured for a vote or read that they may not be certain of or to avoid entrenching themselves in labeling bias. This seems more likely in LQs case than in the null case for reasons such as those seen in 226 where he explicitly states that his methods of reasoning are more fluid and the implication is that it takes time to get to concrete reads.

[Lexa]

Making note that you have 29 posts within those 100 (if I counted correctly)

Presumably that was enough to solidify a read on you

[Lexa]

Ah I should have clarified in my post, the ones not specifically mentioning town reads or scum reads weren't contributing to my reads on people. Things like <3 shannon or liking LQs posts int he two that you mentioned weren't contributing factors to town reads

[Lexa]

"How is this townie? I know townie can have bad logic but still I would take this as null. He also literally called out their behavior as null and still voted them anyway."

Keeping in mind I was reading the thread progressively through time, I interpreted the post as an attempt to bring in external information into the game to justify an RVS vote and progress the game into actual content. I've seen scum do one of those things at a time to accomplish that goal, but rarely both.

"You are getting a weird vibe from yet you are still town reading me. Also lq analysis was scummy as fuck. He went out of his way to smudge a null reads reputation not a town read. Honestly not going to bother posting the walls of conversation we had."

Your town read comes mostly from your dissection of the All Alone case and target on karnos from 627. I still don't know what to make of you exactly and at that point of time you were definitively rubbing me a weird way.

"You can't be serious lol. He literally made a empty reason to try and throw off the scum reads on karnos with out actually down facts. The formats similar to his town game? You can't be even more vague. I even pointed out the differences between that game and this and he backed out of it. This is the worst reason to town read someone ever."

It's extremely consistent with how he has previously been acting and similarly consistent with his stated methodology for getting to reads as outlined in the convo with Gin

"Don't see how this make lq town and I don't agree with gin read"

It doesn't, that was about a possible option for Gin based on a series of posts by him that rubbed me the wrong way. Obviously I didn't read him alignment indicative because of it.

"Honestly his whole defense of thinkbig doesn't ring town for me as scum can just pocket players by defending them and he hasn't actually got any real scum hunting feats. It could go either way for this point"

That's fair. I disagree, but that's fair.

[Lexa]

Here's the thing. This game is about psychology. One thing I'm actually going to do some theory work is the reaction caused by two scums and having one buddy the other.

Ya see, scum don't like calling their scum partners scum because they don't actually want them lynched, they also don't want to call their scum partners town because they don't want to take any heat for "town reading" someone when they flip scum.

So it is common scum psychology and henceforth the scum motivation to provide a town case for Karnos while not actually out right saying he thinks Karnos is town to not draw attention

I agree that this is often the case. I contend that it's also common for town to be cautious in labeling people scum or town while also building a case for similar reasons, either to avoid being pressured for a vote or read that they may not be certain of or to avoid entrenching themselves in labeling bias. This seems more likely in LQs case than in the null case for reasons such as those seen in 226 where he explicitly states that his methods of reasoning are more fluid and the implication is that it takes time to get to concrete reads.

Also, I don't remember a single townie that thinks, I'm not going to give my opinion on a player because I'm afraid of the repercussions. I also don't think it's right to say that something that is done by scum is also done by townies when it's clearly not.

Like this entire time you defend him by going "Well I agree with what you're saying but town could do it to..."

P-Edit: If that was when I first joined, please read my 1st in game post. It was a literal shit post. The difference here is I just asked a couple questions and called some shit out; with Karnos, he had interactions with multiple players and no read was formed.

Oh and to shoot down ya argument that you gotta give him a minute to form a read, Karnos posted 147 times and not once, not even towards the end did LQ say he thought Karnos was town or scum.

I don't think that's a fair representation of what I've been saying at all. In any case this dialogue has convinced me that the case against LQ is based in reason if nothing else.

[Lexa]

For you, apparently not

[Lexa]

I can't speak for LQ but looking at your iso and judging by his stated method of evaluating people, your first 29 posts are highly consistent in tone and style. I can only assume karnos's content was not.

[Lexa]

EBWOP: ...highly consistent in tone and style leading to a clear read based on his evaluations

And the need for that is a clear indicator that 3:30 marks bed time for me

[Lexa]

I also laughed

<<< I might not have laughed, but I at least smiled! >>>

[Lexa]

I can't speak for LQ but looking at your iso and judging by his stated method of evaluating people, your first 29 posts are highly consistent in tone and style. I can only assume karnos's content was not.

Why couldn't you look at Karnos' ISO to see if he kept the same tone, the fuck?

3:30 am yo

gah brb

[Lexa]

Quick scan of Karnos's iso suggests his tone shifts around a lot, inconsistent between pushing for reactions to randomly being aggressive to arguing logically to blatant OMGUS

More importantly the question is whether LQ thought that his play matched up with his previous play or not what what reads he could draw from that

[Lexa]

In comparison to a read on you which as far as I'm aware is solely based on this game and thus not subject to external meta influences

[Lexa]

My brain may or may not have become mush in the past ten minutes

[Lexa]

Methinks I should reread this series when I wake up

[Lexa]

An investigation result from the claimed vanilla town, nice.

VOTE: Alisae

[Lexa]

Fair, thought I saw more unvotes before

unvote

[Lexa]

There's your results gin, for all the good it does you

VOTE: Alisae

L-1

[Lexa]

Vanillager

[Lexa]

@Lexa, why did you lie about being VT and why do you TR Shannon?

Claiming roleblocker (All Alone --> Pepchoninga --> Garmr). As far as I was concerned Alisae's claim was blatantly faked and designed to try and direct pressure away from him, I wasn't about to give (what I thought was) the scum team free information. Didn't expect a town to lie about their role so many times, though. Aimed my roleblock at my strongest scum reads n1 and n2 and then at Garmr n3 who I had concerns about "quitting but not really" as scum to avoid targeting given he'd been seen as more suspicious near the end of the day.

Town read on shannon was primarily based on their posting motivations (ref page 933 in my iso), their posts seemed almost exclusively town motivated from day 1 and in particular I didn't see any reason they would post the voting associations is 637 as they did. I haven't noticed anything since my catchup post that really enforces that position though, they've fallen a bit under my radar probably due to the short days and I'm thinking I'll have to take a closer look at them tomorrow. @anyone who's played with her, is she capable to pull of a deep-cover scum game like this?

[Lexa]

Why exactly is that interesting to note? With half the playerbase dead and a solid amount claiming VT 2/3 targets fulfilling those conditions seems statistically likely to me. And also assumes that Garmr is telling the truth with his VT claim. I'm happy to roleblock an active player to prove my role if proof is what you require.

[Lexa]

Why did you lie about being a vanilla?

I answered this earlier, in my eyes Alisae's claim was blatantly false, they were obviously acting solely to save their own skin, and I wasn't about to give the scum team free information based on a faked claim. Roleblock gets stronger as the game goes on and I can target scum killers so revealing my role there paints a target on my back for a scum kill.

[Lexa]

@Lexa: When and why did Garmr go from a slight town read to a strong enough scum read to roleblock him? Also, why didn't you role block Alisae if you felt he was lying?

Alisae was the lynch...

Between three conf towns, two previous hard town reads, a slight town read, and a previously blocked scum read the risk that garmr was faking a quit was enough to throw a block at him in case he was the scum killer.

[Lexa]

While we wait for Pep, any arguements against me people want to ask that I haven't responded to? I recall TB asking things and seemingly being fine with my responses but also still seems fine with my lynch.

At work atm so can respond to things in depth after midnight or small things on periodic breaks.

[Lexa]

I kinda want to have her try and roleblock people to block a kill

Whether it's blocking a kill or blocking some hidden action you or TB might have I'm more than happy to prove my role.

[Lexa]

Major FOS on Lexa. Her push on pep was opportunistic af

I find it hard to see an argument presented at the beginning of a day when the target had previously been active and under the radar as 'opportunistic as fuck'. Methinks you're hindsight biasing from liking Titus's join.

[Lexa]

This is fascinating!

Echoing, never seen anything like this before

[Lexa]

Sure I can do that when I get off work

[Lexa]

@Titus, here are the snippets on Pep from my major catchup post where I went through the game up to the end of d1 and looked for scum tells. To this point Pep had contributed literally nothing of value beyond some jokey posts in RVS and no one seemed to care or even notice, this despite it still being early in the day, the majority of other players getting wagoned/pressured, and the karnos lynch wagon having yet to have formed.

Jesus how has pepchoninga gone unnoticed? 434 he says "this is my playing". He hasn't contributed anything and somehow isn't getting read or pressured!!! I have to imagine

someone

on the scum team would have noticed and pushed him by now. Moderate scum points given here.

IN POST EDIT: Upgraded to major scum points, popped my head into his iso and holy fuck someone vote his ass.

Confirmed my read on the above, the posts leading up to 444 are such obvious attempts to bus the top wagon in karnos and gain town points. And then immediately flip flops at 451 giving karnos a softball set up to deflect pressure away from him. Pep is top scum read at this point.

Based from posts 434 to 452 in Pep's iso

[Lexa]

Intriguing. What was the vote count as of post 452?

<<< I would think 450 would be the vote count you are most looking for. >>>

[Lexa]

Fourteenth Votecount

:

karnos

- 4 (Garmr,

XnadrojX

,

BlueBloodedToffee

, TheRealGin-N-Tonic)[/color]

All Alone

- 3 (Lexa,

Alisae

,

LicketyQuickety

)

LicketyQuickety

- 2 (PranaDevil, shannon)

XnadrojX

- 1 (

karnos

)
Garmr - 1 (KTthecreeper)
PranaDevil - 1 (

All Alone

)

Not Voting - 1 (Pepchoninga)

With

13

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.

karnos

is at L-3.

Day 1's deadline is Friday, February 10th, @ 2:30 PM PST--(expired on 2017-02-10 14:30:00).

V/LA Notices/Mod Notes:

• mastina, the moderator, is V/LA over weekends.
  
• Lexa is V/LA through Tuesday, January 24th.
  
• KTthecreeper has requested replacement.

Extras

Spoiler: Changes from Last Votecount (none)

₍₌₀₎

karnos

- 4 (Garmr,

XnadrojX

,

BlueBloodedToffee

, TheRealGin-N-Tonic)

⁽⁼⁰⁾

All Alone

- 3 (Lexa,

Alisae

,

LicketyQuickety

)

⁽⁼⁰⁾

LicketyQuickety

- 2 (PranaDevil, shannon)

₍₌₀₎

XnadrojX

- 1 (

karnos

)
Garmr - 1 (KTthecreeper)

⁽⁼⁰⁾

PranaDevil - 1 (

All Alone

)

₍₌₀₎

Not Voting - 1 (Pepchoninga)

Last votecount was post 425, page 18.

Spoiler: Player Vote History Day One

• shannon:
  XnadrojX
  ==>
  Alisae
  ==>
  LicketyQuickety
  
  
• BlueBloodedToffee

  :
  karnos
  
  
• nydushermain/TheRealGin-N-Tonic:
  Alisae
  |
  karnos
  ==>Pepchoninga==>
  karnos
  
  
• LicketyQuickety

  :
  Alisae
  ==>shannon==>
  All Alone
  
  
• Pepchoninga:
  
  
• Lexa:
  All Alone
  
  
• karnos

  :
  shannon==>nydushermain==>
  LicketyQuickety
  ==>>
  XnadrojX
  
  
• KTthecreeper:
  Garmr
  
• Alisae

  :
  nydushermain==>
  LicketyQuickety
  ==>
  XnadrojX
  ==>
  All Alone
  
  
• Garmr:
  Alisae
  ==>
  karnos
  
  
• XnadrojX

  :
  Alisae
  ==>
  karnos
  
  
• All Alone

  :
  nydushermain=>Unvote==>PranaDevil
  
• PranaDevil:
  Alisae
  -->
  LicketyQuickety

Spoiler: Players Who Have BEEN Voted D1

1. Alisae

   :
   6 - Garmr,
   LicketyQuickety
   , PranaDevil,
   XnadrojX
   , nydushermain, shannon
   
2. karnos

   :
   5 - Garmr,
   XnadrojX
   , TheRealGin-N-Tonic,
   BlueBloodedToffee
   , TheRealGin-N-Tonic
   
3. LicketyQuickety

   :
   4 -
   karnos
   ,
   Alisae
   , PranaDevil, shannon
   
4. nydushermain/TheRealGin-N-Tonic:
   3 -
   Alisae
   ,
   All Alone
   ,
   karnos
   
   
5. XnadrojX

   :
   3 - shannon,
   karnos
   ,
   Alisae
   
   
6. All Alone

   :
   3 - Lexa,
   Alisae
   ,
   LicketyQuickety
   
   
7. shannon:
   2 -
   karnos
   ,
   LicketyQuickety
   
   
8. Garmr:
   1 - KTthecreeper
   
9. Pepchoninga:
   1 - TheRealGin-N-Tonic
   
10. PranaDevil:
    1 -
    All Alone

Spoiler: Voting Chronology Day 1

On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 02:28p,

Alisae

Voted

nydushermain

in post 28.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 02:32p,

Garmr

Voted

Alisae

in post 29.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 02:42p,

All Alone

Voted

nydushermain

in post 32.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 02:52p,

KTthecreeper

Voted

Garmr

in post 36.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 02:57p,

karnos

Voted

shannon

in post 38.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 03:19p,

LicketyQuickety

Voted

Alisae

in post 46.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 03:31p,

PranaDevil

voted

Alisae

in post 52.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 04:43p,

XnadrojX

Voted

Alisae

in post 67.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 05:57p,

shannon

Voted

XnadrojX

in post 69.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 07:13p,

Lexa

Voted

All Alone

in post 73.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 07:28p,

karnos

Voted

nydushermain

in post 75.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 07:48p,

LicketyQuickety

Voted

shannon

in post 80.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 09:08p,

karnos

Voted

LicketyQuickety

in post 99.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 09:09p,

Alisae

Voted

LicketyQuickety

in post 100.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 09:19p,

Garmr

Voted

karnos

in post 102.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 10:17p,

nydushermain

Voted

Alisae

in post 115.
On Fri, Jan 01/20/17 @ 10:23p,

XnadrojX

Voted

karnos

in post 120.
On Sat, Jan 01/21/17 @ 09:38a,

karnos

Unvoted

LicketyQuickety

, and Voted

XnadrojX

in post 188.
On Sat, Jan 01/21/17 @ 01:41p,

Alisae

Voted

XnadrojX

in post 210.
On Sat, Jan 01/21/17 @ 05:51p,

shannon

Voted

Alisae

in post 216.
On Sat, Jan 01/21/17 @ 10:54p,

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Voted

karnos

in post 245.
On Sun, Jan 01/22/17 @ 12:39a,

BlueBloodedToffee

Voted

karnos

in post 261.
On Sun, Jan 01/22/17 @ 04:10p,

PranaDevil

voted

LicketyQuickety

in post 279.
On Sun, Jan 01/22/17 @ 04:30p,

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Voted

Pepchoninga

in post 283.
On Sun, Jan 01/22/17 @ 04:37p,

All Alone

Unvoted

(

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

)

in post 285.
On Sun, Jan 01/22/17 @ 04:38p,

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Voted

karnos

in post 286.
On Sun, Jan 01/22/17 @ 04:39p,

Alisae

Voted

All Alone

in post 287.
On Mon, Jan 01/23/17 @ 01:21a,

shannon

Voted

LicketyQuickety

in post 367.
On Mon, Jan 01/23/17 @ 07:37a,

All Alone

Voted

PranaDevil

in post 400.
On Mon, Jan 01/23/17 @ 07:41a,

LicketyQuickety

Voted

All Alone

in post 401.

[Lexa]

It's not like one could go, oh look, 450 is divisible by 25 so it's a page top, my post i'm relating to is 2 posts under that. Let me ask an unnecessary question when I can go do the research myself and present a theory with what i have concluded instead of asking empty questions

Why not both?

[Lexa]

Based on Titus I'm currently trying to figure out why scum wouldn't pressure the lurker if the leading wagon is a scum at both times.

The only one I've come up with so far is that scum is in fact pressuring the lurker but that would mean I'm scum so I'm still puzzling.

[Lexa]

Given that Pep saw no pressure outside of my attempt to bring him to attention and thereby assuming that scum did not need to pressure him the following conclusions are drawn from the premises.

IF
a) Scum have a planned mislynch
THEN they expect to be able to flip the karnos wagon to All Alone or LQ

b) It's a buddy
THEN...I don't actually know the implications of that yet

c) Scum don't need to (planned bus, town eating itself, etc)
THEN...the voting patterns don't make sense

[Lexa]

Garmr, your thoughts on Devil and Shannon?

my thoughts are devil is probably town and shannon is scum. Lexa is scum as I don't see the point in roleblocker and I do't see why a roleblocker would lie about their role.

I explained this exact question in an earlier post from TB. As far as I was concerned, Alisae's claim was blatantly false and intended to divert attention from them. I had no intention of giving what I thought was the scum team free information, particularly with the pubclaimed JOAT having used most of their shots, and particularly when roleblocker is a role that increases in power over time when there's a greater chance I can block the scum killer. Announcing my role there gives scum easy motivation to kill me and doesn't give a bodyguard a reason to target me necessarily when conf!towns exist.

[Lexa]

b) It's a buddy
THEN...I don't actually know the implications of that yet

I'm coming up empty on this one, can't fathom what it would mean to the current game state (outside of Titus being scum) if Pep wasn't getting pressured because he was a buddy with karnos and the other scum

[Lexa]

shannon claimed a JOAT with a doctor, a bodyguard, and something else if I recall correctly

[Lexa]

I think Lexa is a better lynch because:
1. He lied about his role (I am a firm believer in lynching all liars, that is unless a doctor or cop claims VT in order to investigate and avoid the NK);

So you're okay with lying if you think it's justified. Do you not think I was justified given my reasoning?

Given all we've discussed I think the best option is to

lynch shannon

, her claim being a functional cc to my claim makes it very unlikely we both are town

[Lexa]

As I've said I'm happy to prove my roleblocking capabilities

[Lexa]

Pressure voting kind of loses its purpose when you announce

Btw mastina I set my vote on Shannon a while ago

<<< "lynch shannon"? Not a valid vote, sorry. >>>

[Lexa]

1575

[Lexa]

Unless that's not accepted as a standard lynch format and I'm too used to talk voting from my home meta in which case confirming VOTE: shannon

<<< My rules are rather unambiguous there.

Voting must be bolded or in vote tags to be counted. If I recognize who it's for, it counts.

So a bolded "Vote: Playername" will count; a bolded "vote player" would count, any vote tag will count, but bold other than "vote playername", or an unbolded "VOTE: Playername" will not count. >>>

[Lexa]

On my home site any bolded vote or lynch (name) works

[Lexa]

Is it true that LQ was lynchbait day 1 or did that only occur after karnos's flip?

[Lexa]

Your conclusion would also imply that my vote on All Alone was opportunistic lynch bait and I'm quite confident that he wasn't lynch bait but rather a genuine lynch candidate in my eyes given my post analysis.

[Lexa]

Mobile post: still happy with a shannon lynch as I buy her JOAT claim less than Titus's and four joats seems highly unlikely

[Lexa]

Why is this remarkable? Claim contradictions is stronger evidence than reads

[Lexa]

Apparently contradiction wasn't the correct noun. I was referring to the competing JOAT claims. I find Titus's considerably more likely as a watcher/tracker joat makes more sense with all alones claim whereas the doctor/jailkeep claim makes less sense and competes with my roleblock

[Lexa]

Waking up to a no lynch hammer, alright. Thought we'd take another week to argue about it tbh.

[Lexa]

Who do each of you want me to be targeting with my roleblock?

[Lexa]

I blocked prana so idk what gin is an ascetic? (Ty for defining that Titus hadn't come across it before)

[Lexa]

More asking the implications if he is

[Lexa]

Mobile at work doesn't lend itself well to coherence

[Lexa]

If we lynch you, then tomorrow we go to night with 4 alive.

If you kill me, scum get confirmed in Gin/Lexa with Shannon having hammer. Not great odds.
If you kill Shannon, then I track Lexa. The situation becomes me/Lexa v Gin, and I just beat you in a 1 v 1 while calling the scumteam. Not good odds.
If you kill Gin, then I track Lexa. Situation is the same, as the second, but different hammerer.

Why aren't the odds of me choosing between Gin and Lexa good? Just FYI, whoever is doing whatever, I will 100% hammer Lexa if we're in 3P together with Gin.

Are you tracking Lexa no matter what?

I know you're good at VCA, but given I don't know your alignment, I can't trust it.

+1

Regarding hammering Lexa, Surely if there's a 3P situation, and Gin is involved, anyone who votes for Gin is an imbecile. (Also, the remaining scum wouldn't leave confirmed town alive, so if we hit scum today we already know Gin isn't surviving to the next day. Regardless of who the scums are, Titus created enough uncertainty in the previous day phase that nobody really trusts each other, because, as I say everyone was listed as being scum at some point or other.

Thus, a Lexa/shannon/Gin situation would not happen. What is more likely is a Prana/Lexa/shannon situation as we lynch obv scum Titus today, and scum will leave me alive due to hoping they can get me to lynch the other one out of the two. However regardless I'm 100% certain I'll hit scum, as I did last time I was in a 3 way LyLo.

If Gin tries reading back some of my stuff he "should" get what I'm on about.

Also shannon, are you suddenly saying you believe Titus' stuff now? Despite her very obvious attempt to buddy you at day start? Please don't do what TB and Gin did for an age yesterday and listen to someone who suddenly believes you're town.

Unless you're scum of course, in which case go right on, because it'll make tomorrow much easier for everyone involved one Titus flips scum.

Also, considering the fact I feel like my guts are falling out of me, I'll vote now, but I don't expect a double scum hammer as Titus is one of them (which is exactly why I wasn't scared of a double scum hammer in my direction, hard to do so when one is already on the wagon).

Vote: Titus

VOTE: Titus

Vote Titus

[Lexa]

We did our damndest to make it as hard to believe you as possible so don't give gin too much crap

[Lexa]

Gin living to final 3 as a "confirmed cop" should also throw huge red flags to the other town - or so we can argue

[Lexa]

Speaking of garmr I posted about him in the pt

Gotta give props to Garmr he's pretty much the sole reason this game hasn't been an easy party of mislynches

Ikr I love it, people like Garmr never realize the strength of your argumentation won't win you games alone, it's about how you can manipulate other people's perceptions of you that matters

[Lexa]

I have to imagine town wins of he doesn't suicide unless he starts targeting Titus, he hit the game on the nose pretty much at every turn (though I think prana thinks we had a wincon)

[Lexa]

Gin do you mind relinking those mastina threads you did way early in the game, could use some reading material

[Lexa]

Aren't you in one of those in a hydra?

[Lexa]

Oh btw the setup was 4 town Joat 1 scum Joat. I had one shots of ninja kill/strongman kill/roleblock

[Lexa]

LEXA I TOLD YOU CATCH UP POSTING WAS SCUM PLAY. I FUCKING KNEW IT

Lol I was actually legit busy, life has been hectic lately

[Lexa]

Big ups to Devil, he definitely carried the major load for our team. I spent most of my efforts trying to scumhunt while coordinating wagons to avoid VC implications.

This was actually only my second time starting a game as scum and I'd hoped to get town for my first game here so it was helpful to have prana take the lead.

I'm better as scum but town is more fun :p

(If I ever look like the scummiest scum to ever scum I'm lock town)

[Lexa]

The other thing too with gin and shannon living to p3 is that there's two joat claims alive at that point with two confirmed. Assuming I get lynched (and I'd considered several gambits based on getting lynched) we can cast doubt on one of the claims based on balance which further implicates gin, hopefully pushing him towards shannon since he knows he's town

[Lexa]

Also @Devil and @Lea, why did you kill AA and BBT?

Misdirection. Using the kills to manipulate how we looked to the town. BBT over TB in particular because prana had done a good job of pocketing TB

[Lexa]

I understood that reference