Micro 938: Butterfly Mafia [game over]

[votato]

Your vote means i can safely vote you though. VOTE: lucky

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: Votato. We're at LYLO. I'm also not wrong here. I was confident on Votato being scum yesterday. I was also confident that an openly anti-town player (Looker) would always be a mislynch candidate if he's town at LYLO, and we're better off without him, so I was down removing him ahead of time and hoping he was scum instead of just a troll.

You just spent all that time going after me for being "certain" yet here you are throwing out a vote that means a loss if you're wrong. The only way you should feel comfortable enough to vote is if you're scum.

And you misrepped what i said about looker. We all agreed that his behavior was scummy. I just said i thought it was more likely to come from town. I was willing to lynch there anyway because I'm confident now that i have the game solved. Looker's flip gave the info i needed. You also had me pegged as scum with looker, but had no issue pivoting now that that's been disproven

No. I criticized you for being certain and

not

voting.

Also, I had you pegged as scum for reasons independent of Looker as well as associative reasons with Looker. Just because the associative reads were wrong doesn't mean that the independent reads were wrong as well.

[votato]

Lucky are you gonna continue to ignore my cass on you from yesterday?

[LuckyLuciano]

Probably. I skip most cases against me. They are almost always bad. If you link it again I might read it after I sleep. If someone I think is town tells me to respond to it, I will.

[votato]

ok lucky, im not sure what game you're reading, but that narrative isnt remotely accurate. here's what really happened (note that most posts have been excluded, but i feel that this is a representative sample):

Spoiler: the truth the fake news media doesnt want you to know about russian interference orchestrated by luckyluciano

VOTE: looker

wtf was that for?

knightmare starts day 2 pushing looker, not me

To me the scum is in [looker, knightmare, and recti]. There's not much to go on, so I'm going to withhold my vote until they speak. That way no lolhammer, too. Recti, what is that based on?

note that i scumread looker and knightmare.

Knightmare, please explain your reads and thoughts. There are a lot of question marks around you, both from your posts and your vote yesterday fmpov. and now you come in and make a post that is pure fluff and throws shade with AtE. are you still upset about newbie 1997? I think you proved there that you have 0 ability to read me, but have infinite ability to deathtunnel me.

i start pushing on KM

5 pages under 2 hours.......what's wrong with you guys.
This player list is nuts btw

OK, while I've got a few games under my belt that one's new on me. What's PL?

Policy lynch

Hey Planes, nice to see you again! (excuse moi, I just woke up forgot to say hi)
Hello to Lucky as well, hopefully we can win this, this time.

I hate shit posting, cause it's mostly annoying to read.. admittedly some of the shit posting in this game is funny. But I can't really form reads from it so I don't really like it.

Since it may not be clear, my vote on Monkey is a gut ping, not RVS. His decision to lurk rather than engage, and his decision to deflect attention from himself by asking Umlaut to provide reads, rather than making reads himself, both are reason enough to warrant a srs bznss vote.

This is the only decent point in this game so far, everything else is whatever.

So you wanna help me lynch Monkey or what?

YUUUUUUUUUUP

VOTE: HEM

[/oiler]this is KM's entire ISO from day 1. 100% fluff, then makes one comment on someone else's post, then puts HEM at L-1 without reason. KM you need to do a better job of explaining yourself. Also, you say you have no reads, yet you came out of the gates today and immediately voted looker. that suggests you at least scumread him.

im pushing KM and make a case

So you wanna help me lynch Monkey or what?

YUUUUUUUUUUP

VOTE: HEM

you a) give no reason for the vote. its pure sheep. b) you're putting someone at L-1 in RVS. on a sheep vote. c) you dont state that its L-1.

the second question wasnt rhetorical. explain why you want to lynch looker based on a vote when your vote was equivalent. you havent heard anything from looker. why is your instinct to go for more blood rather than ask questions? it seems like youre pushing for lynches rather than content and explanaitons. VOTE: Knightmare

i vote knightmare after not being satisfied with his responses

i dont think youve addressed any of the following properly knightmare:

Spoiler:

So you wanna help me lynch Monkey or what?

YUUUUUUUUUUP

VOTE: HEM

you a) give no reason for the vote. its pure sheep. b) you're putting someone at L-1 in RVS. on a sheep vote. c) you dont state that its L-1.

the second question wasnt rhetorical. explain why you want to lynch looker based on a vote when your vote was equivalent. you havent heard anything from looker. why is your instinct to go for more blood rather than ask questions? it seems like youre pushing for lynches rather than content and explanaitons. VOTE: Knightmare

[iler]why are you bloodthirsty and why arent you trying to engage with looker or other players? dont just vote, try to read people and sort them.

Spoiler:

that makes you just as suspect though. like walk me through some logic here. your vote on HEM was just as bad as looker's. Now you're trying to lynch looker. why shouldnt we be lynching you?

[/ler]why are you less scummy than looker? your reason for voting wasnt any better than his. putting someone at L-1 seems silly based on a sheep vote at that stage in the game.

Spoiler:

I am

informed

that Hoactac is town. I am also informed that he is informed about someone. I further deduce two other town roles are still alive.

Massclaim may be game-winning under the circumstances?

There could be one VT, actually, as there are five living townies.

P-edit: I am a crappy little backup role. I am informed Hoactac is also a backup. I deduce the people we back up must exist, unless Datisi is a troll.

do you wanna explain your vote?

[iler]do you wanna explain your votes? my bad for the quotes in my post, but this was directed to you.

Spoiler:

Knightmare, please explain your reads and thoughts. There are a lot of question marks around you, both from your posts and your vote yesterday fmpov. and now you come in and make a post that is pure fluff and throws shade with AtE. are you still upset about newbie 1997? I think you proved there that you have 0 ability to read me, but have infinite ability to deathtunnel me.

[/poiler]what are your thoughts about the game? who do you think is likely to be scum? you must have more thoughts than just looker. people in the townpile? people in the scumpile?

im pushing KM some more

why are you bloodthirsty and why arent you trying to engage with looker or other players? dont just vote, try to read people and sort them.

I don't need to play how you want me to. My vote on him is an implied question (why tf did you do this). You don't seem to be understanding the implication of a needless quickhammer and why that's scummy AF.

KM refuses to engage

im willing to hammer if he doesnt show up

hey look, im willing to hammer looker

Don't you love it when people accuse you of doing something and then they do the same thing.

@votato

I have already done that,(he quickhammered!) why are you so obsessed with my reasoning to vote Looker,

why aren't you asking Umlaut who's literally done the same thing.

Why the double standards?

now KM starts coming after me, way later.

im pretty confident that im town.

wtf is this?

putting this here for context

VOTE: votato

For now,

I can't see why a town would say "I'm pretty confident I'm town."

because its the reason for this shitty vote.

sorry, thats a really long wall. but what lucky said just isnt true.

[Umlaut]

Prodge. Not voting in until everyone has said their piece. Lucky asking why I didn't insta-vote in lylo is funny.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm a funny guy, what can I say.

Where's Recti?

[Rectiplanes]

Right here.

I'm rather tired. Tomorrow will not be a fun day, either. I don't anticipate making a vote before the weekend comes (and, joy-oh-joy, I have a shift on Saturday).

The balance of probabilities says at least one of Lucky/Votato are scum, given the existence of their putting a vote out and some ten hours having passed since Votato voted. A prospective Umlaut/Knightmare scumteam could have already gotten their shit together and hammered at some point. From my perspective I'm agreeable with this division of the remaining unknowns into two pairs of players who were close on my readlist yesterday. It's more illuminating than a 1vs1 of, say, Lucky versus Knightmare would be, especially with associatives for everyone tomorrow.

I suppose since everyone else has claimed, I will go ahead and tell everyone that I am a

Town Informed Backup Doctor

, and I was informed of Hoctac's alignment and role at the start of the game.

[Datisi]

Official Vote Count 3.02

---

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Lynching

votato

(1): LuckyLuciano

LuckyLuciano

(1): votato

Not Voting

(3): Umlaut, Knightmare491, Rectiplanes

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-27 13:00:00).

Mod notes:

• ...

[/area]

[Knightmare491]

*waiting at the airport*

[LuckyLuciano]

Prodge. Not voting in until everyone has said their piece. Lucky asking why I didn't insta-vote in lylo is funny.

Do you have a piece to say, or are you just hanging out?

[Umlaut]

Prodge. Not voting in until everyone has said their piece. Lucky asking why I didn't insta-vote in lylo is funny.

Do you have a piece to say, or are you just hanging out?

I will eventually, but I've been uncharacteristically busy IRL the last couple days. Meaning to go back and re-read interactions between you and Knightmare and between you and votato but that takes -effort-

[Rectiplanes]

Wow.... don't everyone talk at once.

After work tomorrow I'll reread everything and ask some questions. In the meantime, today we have LuckyLuciano vs Votato. One of them is scum. For the sake of argument let's say we lynch correctly. Day Four LyLo will almost certainly be Umlaut, Knightmare, and the winner of the LuckyLuciano/Votato 1vs1.

It's probably helpful to discuss who people think is the scum out of Umlaut/Knightmare as well, to generate some associatives for town to work with tomorrow and maybe complicate scum's life a bit today. Everyone agree?

[votato]

We want to make sure we don't get sidetracked and spend too much time focusing on tomorrow. we need to get through today as well. there's also the possibility that both lucky and i are scum.

[Umlaut]

Okay, fine, I guess I'll effort.

Spoiler: Lucky-votato interactions, Day 1

All of these are pretty much goofing off but they're still worth taking a look at.

the next person to vote cakez gets to control my vote for 72 hours and be townread for the remainder of day 1.

UNVOTE: Monkey. VOTE: Cakez. You're vote is staying on Monkey, Donkey.

UNVOTE: Cakez. VOTE: Monkey. Back to the srs wagon.

ok, mr confirmed town.

Also not a huge fan of this random vote onto a not-actually-random wagon, what's your read on Monkey?

t'was page 2. i dont have reads yet, nor am i attempting to have reads yet. except lucky. hes definitely town.

Not really doing much for me here either way, could believe this joking around as coming from any combination of alignments.

Thanks Votato. I'll make sure not to lynch you before LYLO. I need to make some coffee. This has been known to take anyway from several hours to several days. Do recruit more support for the Monkey wagon while I'm gone, thank you.

Lucky and i are starting a town bandwagon against the dirty rotten scum known as humaneatingmonkey. if youre a townie and you know whats good for you, youll join.

was that good lucky? give me feedback in the pt. do you think they bought it?

Wait, you are in a mafia PT with Monkey

and

another one with me? Are we playing multiball? And if so, how many mafias do you win with?

im the

mafia ladies' man

. I can start a scum PT with anyone at any time for any reason. but lucky is my actual scumbuddy.

Moving to a "Lucky and I are scum together" gag and at the time I felt this was already getting old...

yes lets let bygones be bygones and play the game at hand instead. attempt to distance is noted tho.

Hey, you're supposed to be on my side, Donkey.

Oh, I see what you did there. By saying that I'm distancing from Recti, you were distancing from me. Well played, partner.

...and now it's really getting old. Honestly looking at this now I can sort of see it as "would scumbuddies actually describe themselves as scumbuddies like this?" posturing, especially considering votato really did nothing else during the (admittedly short) day at all.

i believe that's l-1. Tread lightly

You put him at L-1 earlier unannounced. Hush Donkey.

Consider this atonement

Again, nothing here to rule out SvS but nothing really to rule it in either.

Spoiler: Lucky-votato interactions, Day 2 (but then I stopped in the middle)

On the topic of atonement, Monkey has some sins to atone for.

I have the ability to vote twice. I'm declaring intent to hammer on Monkey.

lucky, what does the first post here mean? and was that a joke about double-voting? or was that a claim?

This is a pretty weaksauce question for Lucky here, compared to votato's pressure on Knightmare at around the same time. I also note Lucky never addresses these questions, and votato never follows up on them (at least until much later when Lucky makes the same role claim), which makes me wonder if he really cared. To be totally fair, votato seemed tunneled on Knightmare at the time, which is a plausible reason for dropping that line of questioning.

Best friends exist. Hoctac, are you informed that Recti is town?

fine fine fine feine fienfeif nefinefinenfe

Yeah, Recti's telling the truth, I was trying to backtrack the claim and not make us confirmed town to scum. It's okay, Recti, but the roles we're backups for aren't guaranteed to be town, so we can't form this conftown block.

so you are informed that recti is town?

Yeah

Thanks, Donkey. Page 11 was so bad it made me zone out.

Again, could be any alignment speaking with any alignment. I will say if they are both scum there's a

chance

votato would prefer to explain this in the PT, but I'm not making much of that.

lucky has also turned into lurkyluciano

Pretty neutral observation here.

Votato

- I agree with Umlaut (75). Votato's vote is really bad here. Combine this with 235 Where Votato is FoSing Knightmare for putting a player at L-1 during RVS unannounaced. Votato has also extensively posted nullspew. In other words, he participated in the shenanigans of D1 without ever moving the game forward. In contrast, other player's memeing led them to develop reads. Some of the posts that stick out are: 69, 83, 91, 129, 135. The only time he starts making reads 162 is when a town wagon is back at L-1, and those reads are pushing the wag on towards a lynch.
83 is interesting to look back on. Making that move makes a lot of sense as mafia, given the wagons available at the time of his offer were Cakez, Monkey, and Recti. All town wagons. It's unlikely that his vote would be used to wagon mafia.
Day 2 isn't much better for Votato. Actually, it's worse. He doesn't really answer Knightmare's points. He dismisses them and pushes Knightmare as if it answers back Knightmare's concerns (208, 219, 228, 243,
Also, 232 and 248 look like a chainsaw and a half.

Looker

- 314 Indicates that he intended to vote Rectiplanes, not Monkey. However, 176 comes across as Looker knowing that he was ending the day phase with his vote. Further, 288 comes from the mindset that Monkey was the correct vote, particularly,

VOTE: looker

wtf was that for?

Did you not think he was scum? You put him at L-1.

Looker straight lied about his D1 quickhammer. Votato is simultaneously chainsaw defending Looker with an attack on Knightmare while keeping Looker inexplicably in his PoE. Is this not the most obvious scumteam of all time? I dunno, but I have no desire to form deeper reads on Knightmare and Umlaut when the mafia already claimed mafia. VOTE: Votato. I don't really care who we lynch first between Votato and Looker, let's just hurry up and end this game.

I will say, if the team is {Lucky, votato} then this is not just distancing but a straight-up hard bus. It's notable here that Lucky has another scumread at least equally strong in Looker here, but votes votato, when I'm pretty sure both were at one vote at the time and so this had the chance of influencing a wagon. I do note that Lucky gated this read a bit in that Looker's flipping green would be a reason to weaken it, but he doesn't seem to have actually done that.

Also, Votato's push on me is literally just IIOA, and poorly put at that. D1 was less than 12 hours long. I've been gone for a day and a half. Sue me. Votato also sounds like he knows that Knightmare is going to flip town and is making some weird pivot from leading the push to following Recti on the same fucking push as if it'll distance him from the flip.

Likewise, this seems really unnecessary unless Lucky genuinely wanted to lynch votato.

lucky: compare my ISO to yours. how are they different? the only difference I see is that I've actually contributed today. I don't know that I'm really on the table for a lynch today, but you're probably right that i need to step up my read game. im just a bit demotivated for this game after d1. i feel like the whole game is a bit sluggish today. It's interesting to note that you're defending knightmare. very interesting. I'm ok with testing your theory by lynching someone i scumread: looker. also interesting that you attack me for a PoE that if you're right would result in a scum win, when you present a PoE that if you're wrong would result in a scum win. It seems that the problem lies not in my PoE but having any PoE and being wrong.

"Oh no, you can't scum read me because that would make

you

scum!"

It's really cool how you are demotivated after D1 when you willingly participated in,

and promoted

the shitposting in D1. Is it the quickhammer that demotivated you? Yeah, that must be Knightmare's fault for putting Monkey at L-1 unannounced. It's not like you put Monkey at L-1 far sooner, also unannounced. Oh wait, you did.

votato's defense is pretty crap here but so is Lucky's followup -- they're accusing the other of hypocrisy but not really trying to get or further a read out of it as far as I can see.

Anyways.

UNVOTE: Knightmare

VOTE: Looker

Only reason Looker was off my shortlist was because I felt his play was too insanely suicidal/openwolf to actually be scum.

Have reconsidered that; I'm OK with taking the vote.

Cool. UNVOTE: Votato. VOTE: Looker. L-1.

intent to hammer. working on a longer post about why lucky is wrong about myself and knightmare. or just lying. won't hammer until there's consensus that we're ready tho. and i still wanna give looker an opportunity to speak

Not really a Lucky-votato interaction per se, but I will say Lucky moved his vote pretty readily here. I don't want to read too much into that since he said he was just as happy with either lynch and since I don't think town was going to agree on anyone else here. It does require me to discount the "damn Lucky definitely wanted votato dead" reaction to 397 though.

Okay I have to go to bed pretty much right this second, more tomorrow evening probably

[LuckyLuciano]

Wow.... don't everyone talk at once.

After work tomorrow I'll reread everything and ask some questions. In the meantime, today we have LuckyLuciano vs Votato. One of them is scum. For the sake of argument let's say we lynch correctly. Day Four LyLo will almost certainly be Umlaut, Knightmare, and the winner of the LuckyLuciano/Votato 1vs1.

It's probably helpful to discuss who people think is the scum out of Umlaut/Knightmare as well, to generate some associatives for town to work with tomorrow and maybe complicate scum's life a bit today. Everyone agree?

We want to make sure we don't get sidetracked and spend too much time focusing on tomorrow. we need to get through today as well. there's also the possibility that both lucky and i are scum.

Posting from my phone. Will be at my PC tonight. Note that when Recti looks ahead to tomorrow and acknowledges that the second scum is likely in {Umlaut, Knightmare}, Votato does 2 things.

(1) He moves the discussion back to today. Everyone knows that there is at least 1 scum been me and Votato. As town, I know it's him. If he's town, he knows I'm scum and should

want

to discuss my possible scum partner with Recti, who is conftown and dies tonight. Redirecting discussion from tomorrow to today doesn't jive well with a player who, if town, would know that I am scum.

(2) He mentions that both he and I could be scum together. While true, if he is town then he knows that it is in fact

not

possible for us to be scum together. There is literally no town motive for him to entertain that thought. All it does is inject unnecessary wifom into our associations. It also comes across as conceding that he will flip scum and he's looking to shape what happens after his lynch.

[Knightmare491]

true but not as incriminating as you are making it out to be.

[LuckyLuciano]

Knightmare: It's {Lucky, Votato}
Also Knightmare: The scummy thing Votato just did isn't

that

scummy.

[Knightmare491]

I don't think I need to tell you that my solve could always be wrong, I'm not an oracle. I'm VT. But sure keep at it.

[LuckyLuciano]

Knightmare, let's play a game. Vote me. When Umlaut doesn't hammer he is confirmed town. Let's narrow the PoE. If I'm wrong and the scumteam is Umlaut + Votato, you can blame me for the loss.

[Knightmare491]

I would've done that if Planes had, had his say. Right now I don't want to do that and lose in case it is votato+umalaut.

[LuckyLuciano]

Okay, you are confscum in my eyes. There's a major lack of coherence with your hatred towards Votato coming into this game and not agreeing with my proposition if you are as frustrated with me as you pretend to be.

[LuckyLuciano]

Okay, you are confscum in my eyes. There's a major lack of coherence with your hatred towards Votato coming into this game and not agreeing with my proposition if you are as frustrated with me as you pretend to be.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, crossapply Knightmare's stance here to the earlier belief that today's lynch is scum!Votato and that his job tomorrow is to convince town!Umlaut that I'm scum.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, note that Knightmare didn't care about reads coming from conftown when we were talking about monkey's reads, but now Recti's reads matter to him.