Mafia 83 - Game Ended Scum Win!

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Wow, I'm getting nothing from this thread. I read through and nothing jumped out at me. I'll do a more thorough analysis in a bit, but I'm not seeing anything suspicious yet.

On another note : what set ups are possible for this game?

This is a closed game meaning you do not know the possible setups.

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FOS alvinz95

I feel like I have to point the finger and someone and his "random vote" which he left on doesn't feel right.

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Battlemage, I feel like you're trying to start a fight. Those who have played with Battlemage, is this a scummy move?

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What's a DGB alt?

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Vote: Jebus

I don't buy your accusations. I think you're describing the posts poorly. You're throwing mud and hoping some will stick, and then retreating whenever someone calls you on it.

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@MK - alvinz seemed to be sweating in his post at the top of this page, but that's not really worthy of a vote in my eyes.

A semi-educated guess as to this games mafia would be BM, Reclusion, and Yaw, though I doubt that'd really lead to much. I'm not exactly sure alvinz strikes me as maf, but meh, it's too early to tell.


BM just strikes me as a mobster, you seem a little anxious, and Yaw a little rambunctious. Why I'm not sure alvinz is mafia-ish, is because he seems like a nervous townie.

I didn't vote because I wasn't 100% sure of it. And I'm still not.

I didn't vote because I wasn't 100% sure of it. And I'm still not.
And I don't need to be 100% sure to vote, I just want to feel like I'm close.

Talk about wishy-washy.

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What's the vote count?

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I third or fourth the request for a Jebus claim.

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Still waiting on a Jebus role claim...

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unvote

Jebus, I don't like your predicative play if you are a doc, but I'll respect the claim for now. I also would like to advise against any doc counter-claiming at this point. I think we need to leave Jebus around for a day or two at least.

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?? Since when can a doc self-protect?

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My vote stands. If you were a Doc, and you were forced to claim, getting lynched would be your LAST worry. Why do you not think you will get NKed?

I think it's more likely you are a townie than a Doc. And more likely you are scum than a townie.

BM

I don't care how scummy a claimed doc has been on day one, I think you have to respect the claim. Not to mention that Jebus appears to just have been stupid about the self-protect thing. Thus BM's comments about the scum not nk'ing Jebus don't add up.

vote: Battle Mage

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Whoops, just noticed that BM posts about scum not nk'ing Jebus were made before Jebus retracted his self-protect claim. But I think my point is still true in general.

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Wouldn't a self-protecting doc break the game?

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He was one of, if not the, first one to refuse to post with un-voting after jebus's claim. No matter how unbelievable a doc claim, we shouldn't lynch a claimed doc on the first day. I don't think we lost a lot by waiting a day or two.

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Whoops, I hadn't realized that iamusername was already voting jebus when he made that post.

Unvote. Vote: iamausername

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I'll vote for plurality opinion on the day before.

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What's up with the site's instability today?

I just want to announce that I will vote for the plurality opinion in about twelve hours. I don't think there's an obvious choice right now.

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It looks like Jebus is the top suspect - so -

unvote vote: Jebus

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I won't move to gnome until he has more votes (not counting me) than jebus.

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I think it's better to hold off on that determination right now. If you declare Gnome to effectively not be in danger of lynching, it's less likely he'll feel the need to answer for himself. I'm not going to tell you to move your vote. Just help us to make him defend himself, and determine then.

I didn't say I wouldn't vote Gnome. I will vote for him if one other player does.

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OK.

unvote, vote: Gnome

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I don't know much theory. Is a no-lynch a bad thing with a starting even number of people?

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Hascow is the first to vote for Yaw.

Hascow was the L-3 vote against Jebus. Yaw was the L-2 vote.

Yaw's summary post after Jebus's doc claim:
[quote = "Yaw"]
cow -- Lots of posts. All but one are one-liners. Really unfairly targeted by Jebus and Netman. Doesn't mean he isn't scum, but solidifying the alignment of one of the other two would make that a lot clearer.
[/quote]

This isn't much to go on, but Hascow has been pretty quiet.

FOS: Hascow

Here are my questions about last night
1: What would have happened if Yaw roleblocked Jebus, Jebus protected player x, mafia tried to kill player x and Yaw was killed by a sk? In other words, are the results consistent with Jebus being a doc?

2: Is there any reason to expect a vig instead of a sk? Also is there a possibility besides those two that I'm not seeing?

3: I agree with iamusername that Jebus should say who they protected with. That seems like it would provide useful information. Is there any reason this would not be a good thing to claim?

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There's no way in hell we can lynch a claimed doc after no townie died last night. Jebus is by no means cleared, but it would be quite silly to lynch Jebus today.

alvinz, you're just being dense.

vote: alvinz95

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@qwintz: Do you mind actually commenting on the defense I made with regards to your accusations? Did you change your mind, did it have no effect, did it strengthen your thoughts? why did you completely ignore it?

It was a good defense. As I said, my suspicions weren't that much to go on. Thus I am satisfied not lynching you today.

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Why would last night suggest a SK?

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Panzer, was that a cop claim?

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no..I had no info on Alvins. And I'm not telling you what claim it is but i'd appreciate if no one else claimed. Hasdgfas is not townie.

I really don't like this. Why keep quiet if you've already essentially outed yourself as a power role? Maybe I'm just too much of a noob to get the implication.

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That's a strange mistake to make Jebus ...

That said, a sk hitting a suicidal lover seems unlikely (although the text on the first page does seem to suggest a double kill similar to alvinz's lynch + modkill.) I'm willing to proceed under the theory that we have a serial killer for the moment.

If panzer is to be trusted, I don't understand why we shouldn't lynch a known sk. Isn't a known sk a plus for scum?

1) The town has to have the sk dead to win.
2) The scum can simply endgame the sk
3) The sk is significantly more likely to hit town than scum
4) Every two extra townies killed costs the town a chance to lynch.
5) We're more likely to hit scum the day after we lynch the sk (assuming a nk)

So, if we trust panzer, we must lynch hascow today. I am unwilling to trust panzer, however, before he makes a full claim and allows an opportunity to counterclaim.

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qwints = he

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FOS: Panzer

Maybe I'm just stupid, but I don't see the point of not claiming after you say what you've said.

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*waiting on panzer

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Panzer: claim today or I will vote you.

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vote:Panzer

Either you're lying about knowing hazcow is sk b/c of role info or you're lying now for some inconceivable reason.

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Panzer:
1) Who did you block n1?
2) Why did you block hazcow n2?
3) Why are you assuming that jebus was responsible for the no kill on night 1 instead of you?

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no..I had no info on Alvins. And I'm not telling you what claim it is but i'd appreciate if no one else claimed. Hasdgfas is not townie.

I blocked Alvinz. I thought it wasn't as conclusize night 1.

I'll

unvote

because the claim deserves consideration. But I have a big problem with the contradiction between these two statements.

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Hear are some thoughts about players out of the spotlight at the moment.

Reading..

This is killa seven's only post since day 1. He had 7 posts on day 1. Killa, I want to hear your opinion about Panzer's claim.

HOS: killa seven

Chaz - I think he's now confirmed town if jebus flips doc. - Should we expect more than two power roles that can prevent kills?

Jebus - Why is he still alive? If panzer is telling the truth, does that confirm jebus?

Mana_Ku - no read at the moment

reclusion - on a four week vacation, too little information

xtomx - no read despite solid activity

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1. AFAIK Reclusion wasn't replaced
2. If there are only two players who can stop a mafia kill
and If the mafia tried to kill someone night one
and If Panzer is telling the truth about being a roleblocker who blocked Alvinz
and If Jebus is a doctor.
then chaz is town.

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Whoops, I didn't think enough about the possibility of chaz being a 3rd party role. Jebus is correct when he says that chaz could still be a 3rd party.

So add a "if chaz is not a third party" to my last post.

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The more I think about it, the more I think my main problem is a failure of imagination at possible roles.

As I noted above, Jebus correctly pointed out an error in my reasoning. Just b/c the mafia tried to kill chaz doens't make him town as he could be a serial killer.

I'll explain my (flawed) thinking:

The mafia didn't kill on night one. They either chose not to kill or were blocked. It seems most likely that they chose to kill. (Unless they were trying to validate jebus's claim)

I think it is most likely that the mafia attempted to kill someone. They obviously didn't kill Yaw (unless there is a role that could make them kill mafia when they targeted non-mafia.) So they must have been blocked, i.e. roleblocked or had a doc protect their target.

There are a limited number of players who can stop a mafia kill. 2 out of 14 seems reasonable, 3 would seem like a lot. Panzer claims he blocked a townie, alvinz, night one. If he is a roleblocker, that would be 1 of 2 accounted for, assuming only 2 power roles capable of blocking kills. (Perhaps an unjustified assumption.)

If jebus is a doctor, he would therefore be the only player capable of stopping the mob kill on night one. He says he protected chaz on night one. There's no reason a doctor would lie about who he protected. (An assumption I failed to note.) Therefore the mafia tried to kill chaz a night one.

I then concluded that if the mafia tried to kill chaz, then chaz was town. (This is just plain wrong.)

I retract my statement for the reasons listed above. The fact that I missed the third party possibility makes the whole thing a non sequitor. I hope this makes it clear why I came to the incorrect conclusion that I did.

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My point is that if we have a known sk, we should lynch them. That doesn't mean we should focus our efforts on finding the sk before the mafia, just that we should lynch known scum.

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I agree that it looks like a double kill.

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My point is that if we have a known sk, we should lynch them. That doesn't mean we should focus our efforts on finding the sk before the mafia, just that we should lynch known scum.

And my point is that if we do that today, then we start D4 with 7 players and most likely only one mislynch as our margin of error. And that's not just the town, the SK is also in the same position. Since our interests are aligned at the moment, it's in the SK's best interest to target scum at night, and in our best interest to not lynch him today.

Are you saying the sk is basically a vig for the purposes of today? It's not like the sk knows who is scum and who isn't, so the question appears to be if the chance of the sk hitting scum tonight is greater than the chance of them hitting town.

Mod: can we get a prod on killler7?

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Why is panzer in red?

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Killer7 appears to be actively lurking. His refusal to make substantial contributions make me suspicious of him. I don't feel like I've got a really solid feel on anything else.

vote:Killer7

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Here's a quick summary of where we are.

Jebus - claimed doc. protected chaz twice.
Panzer - claimed roleblocker. blocked alvinz night one and hazcow night two. Claims hazcow is a sk.

Everyone else - not much.

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I gotta say I find these last few posts pretty panicky hazcow. Do I understand that you believe panzer's claim and think that iamusername was double-killed last night? If so, who should we be targeting?

Welcome bionic, nice to see you again. I like your analysis, but I think you read too much into the alvinz lynch. He was playing ridiculously scummy. Scum might reasonably have left him alone and waited for a vig/sk kill.

I see only two real options at this point (let me know if I've missed something): lynch hazcow as a potential sk or lynch a lurker. Since I think the flavor text points to two kills last night, I'm for the latter option. Killer7 is clearly the most egregious lurker, so that's where my vote is.

All that said, we should definitely hear roleclaims from the main suspects in the next 24 hours.

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Nope, you replaced netman.

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We still need to hear from Panzer.

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Panzer's been quiet too long after this latest dispute. Not to mention the fact that he should be a lot more involved in figuring out what was going on with his claims. I also don't like the fact that he claimed he blocked alvinz night one and that he also had not info on alvinz.

So

unvote, vote: Panzer

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You missed my vote; he's at L-1

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Second the request for a vote count

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So that we can judge your opinions against what we learn with the lynch and from the nk, obviously.

Since you have been so quiet, we have very little posts from you to compare with the information we've gained. Thus we need content from you that we can analyze later.

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I think everyone agrees that we shouldn't have a hammer until Panzer speaks, but that's where the pressure belongs.

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panzer hasn't posted since Monday ...

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Lame, panzer.
Just lame.

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With this last kill, I feel more certain about yesterday being a double kill. Combined with Panzer flipping town role-blocker that means that cow is 100% cleared of being a serial killer. Cow could definitely still be mafia, if we started with >2 mafia. Here's a question for people more experienced than me, how likely how are 3 or more scum given 1 sk? My feeling is that it is fairly likely.

We still know that chaz is 100% confirmed not mafia - though he could be the serial killer.

Because we have so few townies left compared to the scum, I'm going to go ahead and claim. I'm a mason and pro-town as Reclusion, the other mason, can confirm. I cannot speak for Reclusion's alignment.

We now know that at least one (probably more) of xtomx, bionicchop, killaseven and reclusion are scum. The fact that the mafia killed even though hazcow was roleblocked increases the likelihood that cow is mafia. Jebus had protected chaz and seemed willing to continue to do so, so chaz killing jebus would make little sense. So I feel that those four are where the scum are most likely to be.

To sum up

fos: xtomx, bionicchop, killaseven and reclusion[/]
Of these, I feel killaseven's lurking to be the scummiest play.

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Oops, I meant to say that it decreases the chance that you are mafia, cow. Which is why I said that I thought the four I fos'd contained the scum. And if we started with 3 scum total (i.e. 2 mafia + 1 sk), you are guaranteed town.

I did not breadcrumb at all. I thought the confirmation of Reclusion would be sufficient to justify my claim. I absolutely cannot confirm reclusion's role besides mason - he knows I am town, but I don't know if he is town. I'm not sure if an unknown mason is more likely to be town or scum.

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I didn't think there was an obvious target today, so I wanted to focus the attention on the four players I saw as having the biggest chance of being scum. I also wanted to avoid the possibility of the day slowing down the way it did on day 3.

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I'll wait for reclusion's confirmation before I answer that.

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I don't know. We didn't talk last night.

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killa 7's lurking has grown intolerable. Since we haven't really had anything happen in two days, I'm going to

vote: Killa7

.

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Mod, did Reclusion pick up their prod?

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I don't think we can do much until Reclusion (or his replacement) confirms my claim. I don't know his alignment, his actions will tell us a lot.

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Let me clarify. Reclusion knows from role info that I am town. I do not know from role info that Reclusion is. We can talk during the day and during the night. We have not talked much because he hasn't been here a lot.

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killa, who do you think we should lynch?

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I'm also against a modkill.

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I'm ok with a lynch of reclusion/her replacement if people actually believe they are scummy. It would provide evidence for my claim.

But we definitely shouldn't lynch til we get a replacement.

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Well then, I request a vote count

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killa seven's lurking has been ridiculous. He is clearly paying attention to the game without contributing.

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I agree with bionic. K7 should not be modkilled unless he breaks a rule.



He should, however, be lynched for scummy lurking.

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We can't go on without Reclusion confirming a claim. We need a replacement.

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How do people feel about a mass claim?

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Let's do a mass claim then.

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YAY MOD!
YAY REPLACEMENT!

Ok, my feeling right now is that the scum are either haz/xtoxm or bionic/lawrencelot. This is primarily based on bionic's statement that a scum mason is unlikely given the mod.

Now, hazcow was roleblocked on a night where the mafia got a kill. This decreases the likelihood somewhat that he is scum, but is far from probative. On the other hand, xtoxm is starting to look scummy to me. Look at this post:

I

have

been getting a bad feeling from Hasd, but I don't like what Panzer said at all. The mafia are a much bigger threat than an SK, and should be sought before the SK. It is beneficial for the mafia to have the SK lynched. There could still be 3 left, given the game size. Also, Iam's death scene looks like lover suicide and SK kill to me, I think it's worth mentioning.

Vote Panzer

Also, I think I believe Jebus. By looks of it, either she's telling the truth, or mafia NKed to try and strengthen the claim, and I don't think mafia would waste a kill like that, really.

Followed by this post

I think I know what you're implying there.

Unvote

If Hasd is SK, then although we need to get rid of him, he essentially counts as a mislynch, in terms of finding mafia.

With a dead mafia RB, it's probably a pretty easy claim to test...

I'd be ok with a lynch. Being that Reclusion is mason it removes the possibility that she is SK (or atleast, I think it's safe to assume that), and I can see the mod having the unconfirmed mason as scum for the second time he does it.

I've had a bad feeling about Hasd all game, but he's looking better lately.

Note the fact of consistent suspicion of Hascow, which then moves to a reason we should look somewhere else. I don't, however, read Hazcow's treatment of xtoxm as particularly suspicious. I'm going to re-read Hazcow's reaction to panzer and see what I can find.

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Lawrencelot, as I've told you. I already claimed that we 2 are the masons and that you know I'm town, but I don't know your alignment.

Please confirm this.

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???

I've already made the claim in thread. I've already messaged it to him. In what scenario does this make me more likely to be scum?

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While Haz waits to tell us what I've done wrong...

Anybody want to comment on my attack on xtoxm? His hammering yesterday could be seen as additional evidence of being scum.

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I've re-read Hascow and I'm not sure what to think. xtoxm's actions line up with hazcow being a scum partner better than any player, and hazcow has criticized xtoxm several times, but never voted him. BUT, there are 2 key pro-town facts in hazcow's favor:

1. He tried to put the breaks on the panzer lynch. We now know that Panzer was mistaken on Day 3 when he claimed to have blocked a kill from hazcow. Hazcow, as eitehr town or scum, knew it then. He almost certainly could have gotten away with pushing the lynch of a town power role harder than he did.

2. We also know that Panzer blocked Hazcow on N2 without stopping the mafia kill. That means Hazcow did not send in the mafia kill on N2. Of course, xtoxm could have sent in the kill (he posted during the night), and Hazcow had been attracting more attention than xtomx, but Hazcow seems the more assertive of the two.

Then there is his voting history - which I can't get a read on.
Day 1:
vote: Ya
unvote, vote alvinz
unvote, vote Netman
unvote, vote: Jebus
unvote, vote Alvinz
unvote, vote Netman

Day 2
vote: alvinz [incredibly scummy]

Day 3
no vote

Day 4
vote : killa seven [megalurking, at deadline]

Not a single possibly controversial vote since day 1. I honestly don't know what to make of this fact.

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Ok. I'm fine with voting xtoxm, but I want to wait for Lawrencelot's take on it.

Hazcow didn't just not vote for panzer. He actively campaigned against the lynch. If it hadn't been for the mod's post implying panzer had lied then we might not have lynched panzer. Not proof positive, but certainly pro-town.

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Well, I'll vote once the others have a chance to react to your vote. I think xtoxm and hascow are the most likely scum team, but there's no need to risk a quick-lynch.

If xtoxm doesn't post in the next 24 hours, I will vote him.

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Hazcow, everyone has posted. Can you explain what was so scummy about what I did?

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Fair enough, but there was nothing in the post that wasn't already revealed already in the thread. Not to mention the fact that I can communicate during the day.

What's your take on xtoxm, hazcow?

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I am now convinced by the non-response by xtoxm that he is scum.

vote: xtoxm

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Since scum will always hammer when doing so wins;
and hascow and lawrencelot have had the opportunity to hammer:
Therefore, hascow and lawrencelot cannot win by hammering.

This leave only two possibilities:
xtoxm is scum;
and/or both hascow and lawrencelot are town.
Thus if hascow and lawrencelot are not not town then xtoxm is scum.

If hascow and lawrencelot were town and
we have 2 mafia,
then 2 of xtoxm, bionic and I are scum.

A townie would not falsely confirm another player as town
Lawrencelot has confirmed me as town
Therefore I cannot be scum unless lawrencelot is scum.

There is thus no possible situation where xtoxm is not scum or we are not in lynch or lose.
There are only 2 possible scum pairs assuming 2 mafia:
xtoxm and hascow.
xtoxm and lawrencelot.

We therefore cannot lost be lynching xtoxm.

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ebwop*
We therefore can't lose by lynching xtoxm.

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and xtoxm vanished in a puff of logic.

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Since I'm almost certainly going to be killed tonight, here's my current thinking:

lawrencelot could have made a lot of hay out of denying my claim if he were scum. Confirming my claim probably increased the chances of a scum lynch. My death tonight will confirm he is a mason, though I repeat that I do not have role info that he is town. I see him as the most likely to be town.

Hascow has been fairly scummy today, and I've expressed suspicion about him for much of the game. His fighting against my claim isn't necessarily a scum sign, but is certainly consistent with him being so. Xtoxm's hedging in his attacks against Hascow is another bad sign. BUT I thought his fight against the panzer lynch was quite pro-town.

Bionic has been anti-hascow since he showed up. His efforts to validate my claim certainly don't make a lot of sense if he was scum. He named xtoxm as the second most likely to be scum. Once I moved to lynch xtoxm, he moved quickly towards the lynch. I would be surprised if here scum, but he's certainly not proven innocent.

Go town!

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Congrats bionic. You played quite well. I think I was a little too offended by Hascow going after me so hard after the claim.

mafiassk, my only problem with the job you did was the handling of the question about Pazner's night actions. That and alvinz's stupidity significantly hurt the town's chances.

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I'm still a little shocked that there were 2 scum on a scum lynch on D5. I actually read xtoxm's hammer as him saving hascow from having to bus him.

Did anyone besides xtoxm vote you bionic? Or even FOS you? I don't think anyone had any suspicion that you were scum.

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And with the self-hammer, what I was hoping it would look like was me saying "Ok, Bio is town, and I can't see him being mislynched, so i'm protecting one of the other's".

Fooled me.