Newbie 2050 | The End

[volxen]

VOTE: Harumi Ayasato

[volxen]

Why did you suspect LoneMarkhor at the start of the game?

The same reason as for Charles. There are 2 scums. Out of all entrances his and Charles I liked the least.

Why do those two players have the worst entrances from your pov? I would argue that other slots, including my own, had somewhat similar entrances. For example:

Hello everyone

VOTE: volxen
For no reason.

VOTE: Harumi Ayasato

Hello everyone
VOTE: Charles510

VOTE: rayfrost
Because he hasn't been voted yet.

Crab's entrance is arguably similar to Charles' and Lones', especially Charles. And the only difference between mine and the other three is that I naked voted, but my entrance isn't really any "better" than the others. I'm not seeing how you are coming to the conclusion that Charles and Lone have entrances that are more likely to come from scum compared to other slots.

[volxen]

"It feels like he's either bussing his partner or framing an admittedly very easy target to frame. That said, I would like to see Charles actually contribute"

This part just really doesn't feel like it's coming from Town. I'm not Mafia for pushing a slot that deserves to be pushed, that's silly.

Why does that sentence in particular stand out to you as being scum-indicative? I currently have a townlean on Statue. I’m not sure that scum!Statue would be as aggressive as he was in his questioning/pushing on Alice, or that scum!him would put your slot up to E-2 this early on in the game. Newer players are usually more self-conscious as scum, and this is Statue’s first game on site.

I’m not seeing how it’s inconsistent for Statue to simultaneously have scumreads on both you and Charles. You seem to be insinuating that if he scumreads Charles then he should automatically be townreading you just because you are voting for Charles.

[volxen]

"It feels like he's either bussing his partner or framing an admittedly very easy target to frame. That said, I would like to see Charles actually contribute"

This part just really doesn't feel like it's coming from Town. I'm not Mafia for pushing a slot that deserves to be pushed, that's silly.

Why does that sentence in particular stand out to you as being scum-indicative? I currently have a townlean on Statue. I’m not sure that scum!Statue would be as aggressive as he was in his questioning/pushing on Alice, or that scum!him would put your slot up to E-2 this early on in the game. Newer players are usually more self-conscious as scum, and this is Statue’s first game on site.

I’m not seeing how it’s inconsistent for Statue to simultaneously have scumreads on both you and Charles. You seem to be insinuating that if he scumreads Charles then he should automatically be townreading you just because you are voting for Charles.

He can scumread us both. But he can't think that me scumreading Charles makes me Mafia if he also scumreads Charles.

I didn't get the impression from Statue's posts that he was specifically scumreading you because you were scumreading Charles. It came across to me that he was individually scumreading both you and Charles, and he considered it possible that your opening vote on Charles was scum!you distancing from your partner. Considering how common scum distancing is, it's not unreasonable to consider the possibility of you and Charles being scum together. And at the time that you voted for Charles, no one else was voting for him, so it's not as if you put him up to E-2 or E-1.

[volxen]

"It feels like he's either bussing his partner or framing an admittedly very easy target to frame. That said, I would like to see Charles actually contribute"

This part just really doesn't feel like it's coming from Town. I'm not Mafia for pushing a slot that deserves to be pushed, that's silly.

Why does that sentence in particular stand out to you as being scum-indicative? I currently have a townlean on Statue. I’m not sure that scum!Statue would be as aggressive as he was in his questioning/pushing on Alice, or that scum!him would put your slot up to E-2 this early on in the game. Newer players are usually more self-conscious as scum, and this is Statue’s first game on site.

I’m not seeing how it’s inconsistent for Statue to simultaneously have scumreads on both you and Charles. You seem to be insinuating that if he scumreads Charles then he should automatically be townreading you just because you are voting for Charles.

I will continue to share some but not all of my reasoning with the thread. If you ask I can provide reasoning, as I did. If you check my completed Town game, you will see I did the same thing there. Jumping to the conclusion that it's scum motivated without any explanation of why Mafia would want to draw attention to themselves by naked voting onto a wagon is pretty bad logic. Actually, in what world would Mafia ever do that? That's very bad Mafia play, and so if you think I'm Mafia because of that you're kind of insulting my intelligence.

There are legitimate reasons why scum!you would want to push Charles. I already talked about why you might do so if you and Charles are scum together. If Charles is town, then perhaps you thought that he was a good slot to push as one of the less vocal players. If you are scum with say, Crab, then you would arguably have even more motivation to bring Charles' slot into the limelight, since both Charles and Crab were getting suspected for similar reasons. Simply saying that it's not possible because "mafia would never do that" is a fallacy.

[volxen]

Anyway, I think these people are Town: Harumi, Alice, Ray Frost.
I'm not sure about these people: Malakittens, volxen, Statue Surfer.
I think these people are most likely Mafia: Crab, Charles.

Some of you may be surprised to see Statue in the middle row. I still think that the posts I pointed out were really bad, however Statue has some other posts I think are much better and indicate a genuine attempt to solve. Hence Statue has a happy home in the middle row for now.

Alright so now you've eased up on Statue and think that Crab could be scum. Why did you suspect/push Charles out of the gate, but didn't have any initial suspicions of Crab? I don't think that Crabs' ISO is any better than Charles' ISO.

[volxen]

I don't want to put Lunar up to E-1 so

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

[volxen]

Volxen: welcome to the thread in earnest! What are your thoughts about my thoughts about crab? Your vote from the random voting stage is still on Harumi. Do you think Harumi is scummy, or is the vote there because you haven't decided where you actually want to put it?

What are your feelings about charles separate from the people currently voting him?

I think the point that you made about Crab was fair, but I still think that Alice could be scum. In particular I think that there is at least one scum among {Lunar, Crab, Charles, Alice}.

Regarding Harumi, I think that the Harumi vs Lunar exchange is very unlikely to be scum theater, with Harumi being the townier of the two slots. I am also townreading your slot, and Statue remains my strongest townread.

Mala is null for me.

[volxen]

I am still missing content from one of crab, Charles to do proper reads.

Volxen: welcome to the thread in earnest! What are your thoughts about my thoughts about crab? Your vote from the random voting stage is still on Harumi. Do you think Harumi is scummy, or is the vote there because you haven't decided where you actually want to put it?

What are your feelings about charles separate from the people currently voting him?

I think the point that you made about Crab was fair, but I still think that Alice could be scum. In particular I think that there is at least one scum among {Lunar, Crab, Charles, Alice}.

Regarding Harumi, I think that the Harumi vs Lunar exchange is very unlikely to be scum theater, with Harumi being the townier of the two slots. I am also townreading your slot, and Statue remains my strongest townread.

Mala is null for me.

Intersting take. I think opposite that Harumi and Lunar are not svs. Can you elaborate on that?

I just don’t think that their exchange is likely to be a staged SvS fight. Also if they are scum together, I don’t think that Harumi would still be voting for Lunar and keeping him at E-2 for days. Usually the point of staging a SvS fight is to get people to write off the exchange as TvT, so no one wants to push either person. If Harumi and Lunar were scum together, I think that Harumi would have come up with a reason to back off of pushing Lunar by now and would be voting elsewhere.

[volxen]

I liked volx posting up until this:

I don't want to put Lunar up to E-1 so

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

I don’t like the willingness to vote someone who’s most likely being replaced vs someone actually in the game.

That has a bad taste in my mouth.

It also feels like it's voting based on an agenda rather than solving.

You’ve been voteparked on Charles for days now, so I wanted to see how you would react to me putting Crab up to two votes, since I think that Crab is someone who would make sense as your partner if you are scum.

[volxen]

Crab, what are your thoughts on Lunar?

[volxen]

I liked volx posting up until this:

I don't want to put Lunar up to E-1 so

VOTE: Exquisite Crab

I don’t like the willingness to vote someone who’s most likely being replaced vs someone actually in the game.

That has a bad taste in my mouth.

It also feels like it's voting based on an agenda rather than solving.

You’ve been voteparked on Charles for days now, so I wanted to see how you would react to me putting Crab up to two votes, since I think that Crab is someone who would make sense as your partner if you are scum.

And it's interesting that you take issue with my Crab vote, considering that 1) you claim to scumread Crab and 2) you have no issue with keeping your vote parked on Charles even after he said that he would no longer be participating in the game.

[volxen]

Lunar: Your vote on charles is on a slot that is going to be replaced. Are you still more confident in that vote than a vote on anybody else in the game?

Like, say, crab?

I think the votes on the two people are equivalent. It's more likely than random that each of them is Mafia, but very unlikely that they are both Mafia, and I wouldn't be shocked at this stage if they are both Town.
Setting them aside I'm fairly happy to call everyone Town other than Mala, Volxen, and Alice. Alice is a bit of a Town lean.

I mean you could take any two random players in the game and say that from a pure probability standpoint, they are unlikely to be scum together because that's only one out of several different possible scumteam combinations. I don't see the point of making that argument as it doesn't take into account the actual state of the game. Aside from probability, why do you think that a Crab/Charles scumteam is less likely than any of the alternatives?

Also if I'm following you correctly, you are saying that you think the most likely scenario is either 1) one scum in {Crab, Charles} and one scum in {Volxen, Mala} or 2) the scumteam is Volxen/Mala. In the case of the former, why do you have Crab and Charles on equal footing? I could see that before Crab’s return to the game because both slots have been low on content. But I think that Crab's re-entrance to the game is worse than anything in Charles' ISO. I don't understand why you don't have more suspicion of Crab's slot.

[volxen]

Crab skipped 6 days avoiding difficult question. I don't think it is Town way to play the game. Showed up when you started to be attacked.

You are Town, because I can't really see a scum team you could fit into

. RayFrost has really rational arguments why someone is Town and he cares too much to be a scum in my opinion. I am not 100% sure about surfer, but before you showed up his iso was very decent and I can't see a reason why he would like to activate all the players as Mafia. So yeah these my reads.

Can you elaborate on the bolded portion? I would at least like to know why you don't think it's possible that Lunar could be scum with Charles or Crab. I've mentioned before why I think that Lunar/Charles is a possible scumteam so I won't get into that again. At the moment a Lunar/Crab scumteam makes sense to me. I find both slots to be individually scummy, and they make sense as partners from an associative standpoint as well.

In terms of individual reads there is not a lot to go on with Crab, but I didn't like his re-entrance to the game. In Lunar's case I don't really think that town!him would be scumreading me over my Crab vote while he simultaneously vote parks on Charles. He also didn't comment on me saying that my vote on Crab was a reaction test (I now scumread Crab after his return), other than calling it "inorganic".

From an associative standpoint it would explain Lunar's play around Crab's slot as well as his preference of pushing Charles over Crab. He hasn't really commented on Crab's return much other than speculating about the possibility of him being newb!town, without explaining why Crab's posting might be more indicative of newb!town rather newb!scum.

[volxen]

The other thing that stands out to me is how Lunar is treating Crab relative to the other people on his wagon that put him up to E-1 (Mala, Statue, and Harumi). He says he is townreading Statue and Harumi so I will focus on Mala and Crab. Lunar has arguably been more critical of Mala then Crab, even though Mala explained her reasons for voting for Lunar. Crab’s vote, on the other hand, was placed on Lunar during RVS. And Lunar had no comment or criticism of the fact that Crab didn’t even bother to unvote him upon his return to the game, despite the fact that 1) Crab’s vote was contributing to Lunar being at E-2 since Crab, Mala, and Harumi were all voting for Lunar at the time that Crab returned and 2) Crab never said that he was scumreading Lunar when he returned (so why keep his vote there?).

[volxen]

Everyone checked in. Cute. From the entrance posts I suspect Charles and LoneMarkhor.

I can see why he seems scum, and his response only makes me more suspicious of him.
VOTE: LoneMarkhor

This is not a good post, there's absolutely zero analysis, but it could simply be a Newbie. I need more content to evaluate properly.

You mentioned one of Crab's RVS posts here. What are your thoughts on Crab's return?

[volxen]

Welcome Paopao.

[volxen]

Welcome Paopao.

[volxen]

Hey guys! I'll be reading up and giving my thoughts soon, but can it be possible for somebody to summarize for me?

I would like to know what your thoughts are on the exchanges between Lunar and I. And on Crab's slot.

[volxen]

@Mod is the deadline still 5:00 P.M. PST today (2 hours and 42 minutes from now)?

[volxen]

Page Six: AliceK normalizes out and now nulls due to decent reasoning, even if it's against my slot. Crab left for inactivity, so it's likely not lurking, more likely flaking, etc.

I'm assuming that you are referring to Alice's 149. Why does her reasoning for voting/scumreading Crab stand out to you? The points that she brought up about Crab in that post were similar to points that Ray brought up about Crab earlier on page 6. In fact, everyone who has been voting/pushing Crab basically gave the same reason: a dislike of Crab's brief re-entrance to the game on page 6. So I'm curious as to why this post has bumped up Alice from a scumread to a nullread for you.

You've talked about your scumread on Lunar. Do you believe that there is scum among the people on your wagon (me, Ray, Alice, Harumi)?

[volxen]

An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?

I played some games with Krazy and in some games that he modded back in 2019. I would nightkill a townread player from day one over Krazy.

Why do you think that the Krazy nightkill points to Mala being scum?

[volxen]

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.

I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?

Only two people are dead, night kill analysis is unlikely to come up with something and instead distracts from other, more useful forms of scumhunting.

That's what I am saying point them out.

People's reactions around the vote have been super informative though

For example: AliceK is pretty obviously Town. Mala is looking very Town.

I don’t see how saying that nightkill analysis is useful makes Alice “obvtown”. If there is one read that I would like you to explain, it would be this one, because I don’t see where you are coming from. Alice was all over the place on day one, and she didn’t explain a lot of her stances (e.g., why at one point she thought the scumteam was Charles and one of Crab’s voters, why you couldn’t be partnered with anyone in the playerlist, etc.). Why is she so high up in your reads?

[volxen]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

[volxen]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

[volxen]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

Regarding your first point, the only SE that was widely townread on day one is Ray. If you are scum with another newbie, then Krazy would have been a fourth town SE. If your goal was to take out an experienced player, then there’s the argument that either Mala or myself wouldn’t have been a better nightkill than Krazy, since neither of us were widely townread on day one. At the same time, scum!you would have to consider the possibility that Ray would be targeted by a protective. Between that and the fact that you already knew who Krazy is outside of the context of the game, it establishes that you would have motive to nightkill Krazy.

Yes, the same argument could be applied to anyone who is aware of who Krazy is, which includes all three SE’s. But the difference is that you are the only one who is insisting that the nightkill effectively “proves” that at least one SE has to be scum. I’m not arguing that the nightkill in and of itself proves that you are scum, I’m saying that you would have motive to nightkill Krazy if you are scum. You are downplaying this by saying that you know who Krazy is, but not “well enough” to have the same motive that you are trying to attach to the SE’s.

Your nightkill analysis is… convenient, in that in both of the two scenarios that you mentioned, the conclusion is the same: at least one SE has to be scum. You outright reject any other possible explanations for the nightkill that would include the possibility of all SE’s being town, even though you haven’t put forth a good argument as to why that couldn’t be the case. For example, why couldn’t it be the case that scum were PR hunting with the nightkill? That wouldn’t require an SE to be scum to be plausible. Harumi also mentioned the possibility of the nightkill being a mis-play that could be indicative of two newbie scum, which you immediately shot down.

This is why I don’t get the sense that you are really trying to analyze the nightkill to figure things out, but rather you are using it to justify this stance of yours on separating the newbies vs SE’s. All of your nightkill analysis seems centered around reinforcing a pre-determined conclusion.

[volxen]

VOTE: Lunar Martian

E-1.

[volxen]

Well, yeah, people should prove their own scumreads but you're apparently saying that I should find town justification for your actions??? For some reason???

I mean... you should look for both right? If you're Town you're not out to get everyone else on the playerlist. You're trying to sort everyone else. So yeah, you should be looking for evidence that goes both ways and consider things that might indicate that people are Town as well as things that indicate they may be Mafia. I'm not saying it's your job to prove I'm Town. I'm saying it's your job to consider the possibility, at least internally.

Just because people are coming to the conclusion that you are likely scum doesn’t mean that they haven’t considered the possibility of you being town at some point. I think that on the whole, your play is more likely to come from a scum mindset rather than a town mindset. I disagree with Ray’s argument that your play is anti-town rather than scummy.

You are saying here in a general sense that everyone should be looking at your actions and considering the possibility that everything that you are doing is coming from a town mindset. I’m interested in what’s likely, not in what’s possible. There are several things that you’ve done that I think are more likely to come from scum!you than town!you:

- The absolute confidence in the “SE theory” that you claim to have. I’m talking about the theory in and of itself, not about how it relates to your reads on any particular SE. It’s one thing to put the theory out there and talk about how all of the SE’s would have motive to nightkill Krazy because of past experience with him. Logically, it is correct that anyone who knows who Krazy is outside of the context of the game would have motive. But any time someone suggests an alternative motive for the nightkill, you could just counter with “no, I know I’m right, an SE has to be scum”. You talk here about internal processing, but I don’t see any evidence that you are actually thinking about the nightkill, which would include giving serious consideration to the other possible explanations for why Krazy was nightkilled which have been brought up repeatedly. I don’t think that you have engaged on this issue in good faith, and I don’t think that town!you spends this entire day phase talking about how at least one of three slots must be scum because of the nightkill alone.

- There’s also the issue of how you have actually played around the SE theory. First, you started off by pushing Mala, and you later said it was a “low information guess” when pressed as to why. It was only after you started taking heat for pushing Mala and got up to E-2, that you switched gears and said that Mala was “looking very town” (with no explanation as to what changed your read on Mala) and started talking about how your SE theory pointed to me being scum. Ever since then you’ve just been falling back on the SE theory as a reason for scumreading me. You’ve effectively been using it as a reason to have a permanent scumread on me without having to actually evaluate my posts or engage with me.

- Your selectiveness with respect to which questions you answer vs which you don’t answer, and also on when you choose to elaborate on your reads vs when you don’t. Yes, you are not the only person to do this – Alice, for example, has not explained many of her reads, and has dodged a lot of the questions asked of her. But at times, you’ve gone into detail with your reads/explanations, and at other times you don’t. You’ve clearly demonstrated that you are capable of elaborating on things when you really want to, so it’s not a playstyle thing. A lot of the questions that you’ve dodged were legitimate questions that you should have answered, so I don’t think that it’s towny.

- For example, one thing I’ve noticed is that when you are engaging with Harumi, you tend to go into more detail and try to counter all of the points that he makes. If he asks you a question you will usually answer it. When I ask you a question, it’s about a 50/50 chance that you will respond, and from there, about a 50/50 chance that you will explain your reasoning when you do respond. In fact, you don’t seem to really have any interest in actually engaging with me, despite the fact that your SE theory has me in your POE. You seem content to keep me in your POE based on that alone. If anything, shouldn’t that mean that I am one of the slots that you would be the most interested in engaging with and questioning? You only asked me one question on day one, and outside of you asking all of the SE’s about their past experiences with Krazy, I’ve initiated all of the interactions that you and I have had. I think that if you were town and were as suspicious of me as you claim to be, you would have a lot more interest in questioning me and trying to see my mindset.

[volxen]

@Alice would you at least mind telling us why you TR Lunar?

Alice you really need to answer this so we can see where you are coming from. Do you have an individual townread on Lunar, or is it only based on associatives (i.e., that you think that Lunar can’t be partnered with anyone)?

[volxen]

I'm tracker.

I tracked Lunar on night one and they didn't target anyone.

I tracked Alice on night two and I got a "no result" PM back.

[volxen]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

[volxen]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and me being clear and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

The fact that you didn't target anyone on night one isn't a mechanical clear FMPOV. It clears you from being a roleblocker, but you could be a goon and your partner both roleblocked and performed the nightkill on night one.

So with a no-elimination, I would be tracking from a pool of four players on night three, but we would be guaranteed to not lose during the night phase.

[volxen]

Ok so assuming that no one CCs, Mala is confirmed Town and volxen is likely Town. That or volxen got jailkept, realized we are in C2, and knew to claim tracker to pair with the Jailkeeper.

Yes, Mala is confirmed town now since everyone has claimed. Which is why I think that the optimal play for today is a no-elimination.

Hang on a second. With two PRs then both Mafia probably move each night, so your no movement on me is a clear FYPOV. That means between Mala and me being clear and yourself being Town you're shooting 2 Mafia in a pool of 3. Why are you pushing a no elim?

The fact that you didn't target anyone on night one isn't a mechanical clear FMPOV. It clears you from being a roleblocker, but you could be a goon and your partner both roleblocked and performed the nightkill on night one.

So with a no-elimination, I would be tracking from a pool of four players on night three, but we would be guaranteed to not lose during the night phase.

I mean it's possible, but unlikely, since the roleblocker multi-tasking would mean a tracker would get a full guilty. In any event you'd have to be pushing me and Statue as the Mafia team and you aren't doing that, so you're still Mafia.

If the roleblocker is more townread than the goon, then it makes sense for the roleblocker to multi-task. Yes, it’s not a mechanical guilty if the goon gets caught targeting the person that got nightkilled, but it’s still going to bring them under a lot of scrutiny. And you took a fair amount of heat on day one.

No, I don’t have to push you and Statue as the scumteam. There could be scum in {Ray, Alice}, and if you are scum one of them makes a lot more sense as your partner compared to Statue.

Why does the fact that I’m not pushing Lunar/Statue as the scumteam impact your read on me? The fact that you have Alice and Ray as townreads doesn’t explain why I would have to be townreading them in order for me to be town.

It’s a pointless argument, as you’re effectively saying that it’s impossible for both of us to be town, so no matter what I push you’re going to say that it indicates that I’m scum.

[volxen]

Why?? If you're town, scum can kill MK with 100% certainty (by having the roleblocker block her and kill her), and you only have a 25% chance of tracking the scum. Or you could get roleblocked, forcing MK to have a 25% chance of jailing the scum to stop the kill -- and from your POV, executing someone purely at random has a 50% chance of hitting scum. And of course if you're scum, you or your buddy can kill MK, scapegoat a townie with a made-up result, and get an easy mislynch.

FMPOV miseliminating today is an autoloss since Mala will just be both roleblocked and nightkilled if that happens. I realize that no-eliminating isn’t as appealing to everyone else since I’m not confirmed town, but that’s how I was looking at it. I think that it’s probably a moot point in any case as it’s unlikely that we will be no-eliminating today.

[volxen]

Lunar, what do you make of the fact that Ray and Alice have mutual suspicions of one another?

[volxen]

Well, what's your opinion on it?

What I’ve noticed is that Lunar is critical of Alice when she voices her suspicions of Ray, but they are not critical of Ray when he voices his suspicions of Alice.

For example, In Ray’s back-and-forth with you he mentioned several times that he thinks that a Statue/Alice scumteam is possible in this post:

Honestly, I considered Volxen as the likely buddy (that was actually what the note was about in my previous post), but with how strong you're trying to push away from the possibility of it being Alice, it makes me lean toward Alice being more likely. Perhaps a bit on the WIFOMy side, but eh. I haven't done a deep dive into Alice's posts vs Volxen's posts to really get into it, but that's also something I can look at the following game day

The small shade you've thrown Alice is minimal, and the lack of any real bite behind the interactions between the two of you combined with Alice's random scum read on me when I stated I thought Lunar was town reads as Alice-as-Mafia reacting with frustration to things not going as planned. Furthering my belief that it's probably you two, though I haven't done a deep dive on "if Statue is mafia" yet.

RE: Not hammering Lunar on d2... removing Lunar from the game would force you to have to look at the rest of the playerlist in a more concrete fashion (as you didn't have anything concrete that wasn't Lunar), which makes the game harder for you to play. If you give the Harumi wagon a day, there's a chance that the momentum it gained will die from events over the night phase. My read likely caught you off guard and by surprise, and you wanted to take advantage of it while you could. Alice being the hammer on the slot only makes it make more sense to me instead of less.

Lunar did not comment on or object to any of the points that Ray was making here about a Statue/Alice scumteam. Granted, Ray went into a lot of detail in that post, whereas Alice has a tendency to make statements without explaining her reasoning. But Lunar has been pushing Alice and Ray as townreads for most of the game – to the extent that they are not willing to talk about the possibility of any scumteam that is not Volxen/Statue. So why is Lunar’s “concern” with their two townreads suspecting each other one-sided?

These two posts from Lunar are the only times when they have asked Alice to elaborate more, with the latter post being the first time that Lunar has been critical of Alice:

I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.

Doubt it. Explain though?

Actually volxen's PoE means 2 scum in: Statue, Alice, RayFrost. I'm inclined to just say that confirms volxen as Mafia and say it's Statue and volxen.

I actually can see anyone as Mafia. Ray is my primary suspect I would like to vote tbh. Doesn't really like his Day 1, had a lot of interactions but avoided doing reads.

This is a really bad post. You need to elaborate please.

Even though Alice has been consistent in not explaining her reasoning for a lot of the game, it only becomes an issue for Lunar when it’s related to her giving an unfavorable take on Ray.

What’s interesting is that I don’t think that Ray has come under any real scrutiny until today. Offhand, I think that first post from Alice that I quoted above is the only time that anyone voiced suspicions of Ray on day two. Ray is now coming under a lot more scrutiny from both you and Alice. And Lunar is insisting that Alice needs to explain her scumread on Ray, even though Lunar still hasn’t explained why they are so confident that Ray is town.

I agree with your assessment that Ray would make sense as Lunar’s partner, though I still haven’t ruled out Lunar/Alice (this is what I was leaning towards on day two). It would explain Ray’s counter-push on Harumi on day two in response to Lunar’s wagon, and his push on you now. It also would explain why he’s written off Lunar’s play as “anti-town”. Ray is also the only person in the game who has never at any point voiced suspicions of Lunar.

[volxen]

Volxen is trying to keep as many options open as possible for the scumteam. All his logic explains why various teams are options, but no teams are really ruled out. That isn't gamesolving.

I've already said that Lunar/Statue is very unlikely. I also think that Ray/Alice is unlikely as well.

I think that it's either Lunar/Ray or Lunar/Alice.

[volxen]

Volxen is trying to keep as many options open as possible for the scumteam. All his logic explains why various teams are options, but no teams are really ruled out. That isn't gamesolving.

I've already said that Lunar/Statue is very unlikely. I also think that Ray/Alice is unlikely as well.

I think that it's either Lunar/Ray or Lunar/Alice.

[volxen]

Are you going to answer my questions, Lunar?

Why does the fact that I’m not pushing Lunar/Statue as the scumteam impact your read on me?

Lunar, what do you make of the fact that Ray and Alice have mutual suspicions of one another?

[volxen]

Are you going to answer my questions, Lunar?

Why does the fact that I’m not pushing Lunar/Statue as the scumteam impact your read on me?

Lunar, what do you make of the fact that Ray and Alice have mutual suspicions of one another?

No and nothing, really. Why should it be odd that two people are suspicious of each other?

As I mentioned before, you’ve been critical of Alice for suspecting Ray but not the other way around. And a lot of your argument for suspecting Statue and I is that we are in your POE because of your townreads on Alice and Ray.

You’ve never explained your reason for townreading both of them so strongly, nor have you mentioned the possibility that you could be wrong on at least one of those reads. I don’t think that’s normal for this stage of the game, to not re-evaluate or consider the possibility that you haven’t come up with a perfect solve. You’re staking the game on Statue and I being the scumteam, and it’s not worthwhile to explain why you are convinced that Alice and Ray are town, and why nothing that has happened on day two or day three has affected these reads which you’ve had since day one?

You’re also the only player here who is pushing the same thing as the end of day two, except now your POE is only Statue and I following Harumi’s miselimination. Everyone else has re-evaluated their reads at least to some extent. For example, Ray was fairly townread on day two (or at least he was not really suspected), and now Alice, Statue, and I have all voiced suspicions that Ray could be scum. Outside of insisting that Alice explain herself, you seem unphased by this, even though it means that at least one person genuinely suspects Ray of being scum. You don’t react to any of the points brought up against Alice or Ray, even when it’s one of them explaining why they suspect the other.

I don’t think it’s odd for two people to be suspicious of one another. I think it’s odd that it doesn’t bother you that the two players in question are your townreads. You asked Alice to elaborate on her Ray scumread, which she now has, and you haven’t shown any interest in her response.

[volxen]

VOTE: StatueSurfer

[volxen]

Great game all! And thank you Ray for being a great partner and making this game so much fun. Thank you Sirius for modding.

[volxen]

I am also OK with releasing our scum PT.

[volxen]

The goal was to make sure people thought it was one or the other of us.

I think you would be in trouble if you were lynched, because Tracker was expected to die. That would definitely ping other two. Good job keeping yourself out of poe.

As you will see in the scum PT, my plan for day four was going to be to come out and claim that I tracked Ray on night three and that he didn't target anyone. The idea being that FMPOV as tracker, that would confirm that he and Lunar can't be scum together, since neither of them could be the roleblocker. So based on that, I would now believe that Lunar/Alice is the scumteam. It would give me a mechanical reason for me to "easily" abandon my suspicions of Ray, and now focus on Lunar/Alice. The whole idea being that Ray could still be a goon from a mechanical standpoint, but because Lunar was my top scumread, I no longer suspected Ray of being scum.

At the same time, Ray most likely would have continued to push his Statue/Alice scumteam angle. So basically, we would have both been pushing you as scum, but we would have disagreed on whether Lunar or Statue was your partner.

I wasn't sure how you would react here, but FYPOV Statue/Ray would have still been possible since Statue was still not ruled out from being the roleblocker. With my claim you basically would have known that Lunar was town (since he mechanically couldn't be scum with Ray, and it was VERY unlikely that he was partnered with either of Statue or I). My hope that was you would think that Statue/Ray was more likely than Volxen/Ray, and that you would want to eliminate Statue specifically because he would have to be the roleblocker, whereas Ray would only be the goon.

Neither of Ray nor I had any interest in bussing. That was always seen as a last resort that should be avoided if at all possible. In particular, if Ray had gone down, that would also mechanically confirm Lunar as town since Ray would have flipped goon, and Lunar couldn't be the roleblocker. So in that scenario I would have had to nightkill Lunar, and the final three would have been {Volxen, Alice, Statue}. If that had happened, I'm not sure which of you two I would have tried to push as Ray's partner.

Of course, if I had gone down, then Ray could have still pushed the Volxen/Statue scumteam angle. Presumably in that scenario, Ray would have nightkilled you, and the final three would have been {Ray, Lunar, Statue}. But again, bussing was something that both of us wanted to avoid.

[volxen]

I would nightkill a townread player from day one over Krazy.

suuure you would volxen, suuuuure

Nightkilling you was all Ray's idea... I swear!


But in all seriousness, as everyone will see when they read through the scum PT, we came VERY close to nightkilling Mala on night one. That would have happened if you didn't replace in and throw a wrench into our plans . Ironically enough, I had suspicions that Mala was a cop early on on day one, because of that Scooby Doo gif that she posted in the beginning of the game that had the cop in it (I also later found a post of hers where she used the phrase "cop out"). So I thought that Mala made sense as a PR, and Ray just wanted to nightkill her based on her play (he thought that eventually, Mala might become the greatest threat to him). I actually thought that Mala was likely to be either a cop or a mason with Harumi. So it's kind of funny that she ended up being a jailkeeper.

I knew that you would be a problem, Krazy. At best, I thought you probably would have posted a lot and increased the pace of this game, which is good for town and not so good for us. At worst, I considered the possibility that you might have some tells on me (although it's been a while since we've played together, or since I've played in a game that you've modded) or suspect that I was scum. As lunar pointed out, nightkilling you also had the effect of keeping your slot a blank slate, as both of your predecessors had almost no content. Ray and I at least had a sense of where everyone else was at on night one based on their day one play. You would have brought an entirely new perspective into the game. A perspective which I couldn't allow, my friend.

This is also the second time that I, as scum, have correctly read someone as a PR, but not as the correct PR. The first time was in Newbie 1900, where I was scum with Not_Mafia. Auro was a jailkeeper in that game, but I thought that he was a cop on day one and Not_Mafia and I nightkilled him on night one. So the fact that Mala was a jailkeeper but I thought that she was a cop is very ironic.

[volxen]

I would nightkill a townread player from day one over Krazy.

suuure you would volxen, suuuuure

Nightkilling you was all Ray's idea... I swear!


But in all seriousness, as everyone will see when they read through the scum PT, we came VERY close to nightkilling Mala on night one. That would have happened if you didn't replace in and throw a wrench into our plans . Ironically enough, I had suspicions that Mala was a cop early on on day one, because of that Scooby Doo gif that she posted in the beginning of the game that had the cop in it (I also later found a post of hers where she used the phrase "cop out"). So I thought that Mala made sense as a PR, and Ray just wanted to nightkill her based on her play (he thought that eventually, Mala might become the greatest threat to him). I actually thought that Mala was likely to be either a cop or a mason with Harumi. So it's kind of funny that she ended up being a jailkeeper.

I knew that you would be a problem, Krazy. At best, I thought you probably would have posted a lot and increased the pace of this game, which is good for town and not so good for us. At worst, I considered the possibility that you might have some tells on me (although it's been a while since we've played together, or since I've played in a game that you've modded) or suspect that I was scum. As lunar pointed out, nightkilling you also had the effect of keeping your slot a blank slate, as both of your predecessors had almost no content. Ray and I at least had a sense of where everyone else was at on night one based on their day one play. You would have brought an entirely new perspective into the game. A perspective which I couldn't allow, my friend.

This is also the second time that I, as scum, have correctly read someone as a PR, but not as the correct PR. The first time was in Newbie 1900, where I was scum with Not_Mafia. Auro was a jailkeeper in that game, but I thought that he was a cop on day one and Not_Mafia and I nightkilled him on night one. So the fact that Mala was a jailkeeper but I thought that she was a cop is very ironic.

[volxen]

I would nightkill a townread player from day one over Krazy.

suuure you would volxen, suuuuure

Nightkilling you was all Ray's idea... I swear!


But in all seriousness, as everyone will see when they read through the scum PT, we came VERY close to nightkilling Mala on night one. That would have happened if you didn't replace in and throw a wrench into our plans . Ironically enough, I had suspicions that Mala was a cop early on on day one, because of that Scooby Doo gif that she posted in the beginning of the game that had the cop in it (I also later found a post of hers where she used the phrase "cop out"). So I thought that Mala made sense as a PR, and Ray just wanted to nightkill her based on her play (he thought that eventually, Mala might become the greatest threat to him). I actually thought that Mala was likely to be either a cop or a mason with Harumi. So it's kind of funny that she ended up being a jailkeeper.

I knew that you would be a problem, Krazy. At best, I thought you probably would have posted a lot and increased the pace of this game, which is good for town and not so good for us. At worst, I considered the possibility that you might have some tells on me (although it's been a while since we've played together, or since I've played in a game that you've modded) or suspect that I was scum. As lunar pointed out, nightkilling you also had the effect of keeping your slot a blank slate, as both of your predecessors had almost no content. Ray and I at least had a sense of where everyone else was at on night one based on their day one play. You would have brought an entirely new perspective into the game. A perspective which I couldn't allow, my friend.

This is also the second time that I, as scum, have correctly read someone as a PR, but not as the correct PR. The first time was in Newbie 1900, where I was scum with Not_Mafia. Auro was a jailkeeper in that game, but I thought that he was a cop on day one and Not_Mafia and I nightkilled him on night one. So the fact that Mala was a jailkeeper but I thought that she was a cop is very ironic.

And the other ironic thing is, I also fakeclaimed tracker as scum in Newbie 1900.

[volxen]

@Statue, how would you have reacted to me claiming that I tracked Ray on night three and that he didn't target anyone? That was my plan for day four, so that I could focus on pushing Lunar/Alice as the scumteam.

[volxen]

I will say, in the end everyone was at least suspicious of one Mafia. It was interesting how Mala and Lunar were both convinced that Ray was town, but they were both suspicious of me and thought that a Volxen/Statue scumteam made sense. Whereas, Alice and Statue were both townreading me and thought that a Lunar/Ray scumteam made sense. But the focus, primarily, seemed to be that at least one of {Lunar, Statue} "had" to be scum. Lunar and Statue were at the forefront of the game, whereas Ray and I were more in the background.


I agree with Ray, I think that a key part of our play was just making it seem very unlikely that we were scum together, because we were both pushing very different things. Ray was a "consensus" townread for a while, but I never tried to attain that status, and towards the end of the game neither of us were widely townread and we didn't try to change that. And while Ray and I coordinated on certain things, we both for the most part made our own decisions on how we played, what we pushed, etc., so everything just sort of happened organically. For example, I didn't know that Ray was going to hard defend Lunar and push Harumi on day two until he started doing that. On day three, the game just sort of naturally evolved into a Lunar vs Statue dynamic, and it ended up working out well for us that we both continued to take opposite stances on Lunar and Statue.