Newbie 2101 | Better Call Saul | Game Over

[Rad]

Hello! I skimmed through the game before deciding to replace in so I have some initial thoughts from that. I plan on rereading everything tonight since it's only 10 pages. Initial thoughts here have peta and meg at town, esires town lean, furtive and fancy at null, bulba and bbt scum lean, bs2000 at scum. I'll try to clarify those reads better later when I have a chance to sit at my comp and prepare some notes.

[Rad]

UNVOTE:

[Rad]

Interested if these change at all. If they do can you state what you were thinking beforehand?

Yup sure. I'll try to give some reasoning for my current reads shortly after I reread (or as I'm rereading, we'll see) and if I draw different conclusions I'll try to pick out why.

Welcome Rad and Bellaphant!

@Rad: do you think Juice was just disengaged/uninterested in this game?

Thanks!

Well, knowing this slot is town, this is probably just legit:

forgot about this game ooops.

VOTE: juice

UNVOTE:
VOTE: petapan OMGUS for the fun of it

^ This is probably Juice not being all that interested in the game.

peta is squeaking like scum. if they were town, they would of just kept their vote on me,

petagan is just vote spreading to seem town - we caught mafia already

^ I can't tell how serious these are and I read peta as town on my first read through. I'm going to keep the idea in mind in my reread in case Juice was onto something that I missed. I know the first time I read it before I knew this slot's alignment for sure, I thought he was just wrong on peta.

Off to reread and make notes this time, but let me know if anyone has any questions in the meantime. I'll be up for another hour or two.

[Rad]

Sorry, I don't plan on asking a ton of questions from early game, but when I find something that I want clarification for I'm just going to have to ask.

VOTE: esires

Wagon or scum.

FurtiveGlance and BS2000 already town.

Looks like an easy game.

@Fancy can you explain why you had the town read on Furtive and BS2000 early? Was it serious or a joke? Was Meg wrong in 31 or were you confirming they were correct in 54 and that you town read them for "moving the game along"?

[Rad]

Alright so I was rereading through things and decided to make notes on anything that stuck out. This isn't something I normally do. In my skim through I just had a list of people and moved them as my gut told me to. Here, I've focused on specific posts that I felt could use an explanation. I only made it 4 pages in close to 2 hours. I don't think I'll continue like this but I figured I'd throw this out there anyway since I spent the time on it. I grouped posts by people rather than by order they happened, which is probably much more useful for me than anyone else who might read this.

Some symbols I used:

^ for pushing me towards town read, ... for pushing me towards scum read, nothing extra for null but still significant enough to talk about it (I didn't write about nulls that I didn't feel were significant, for the most part)

After 4 pages I had no super strong town or scum reads. Just some leans and nulls. I'll continue on here but I'm going to shift back to my regular method of just moving people as I get reads on them. Hopefully I can catch up completely tomorrow because I play best when I can have active conversations.

Though I do often order my reads list, these are not ordered. I just kept updating people and moving them to the right sections.

TOWN LEAN

MegAzumarill (SE)

- ^ 32 feels like a townie suspicion, one that's not super obvious but also makes me go "huh yeah maybe, not sure I agree but I can see that"
- ^ 53 this response to BS2000's town read of furtive is probably exactly what I was thinking during the initial skim because it's exactly what I'm thinking during the reread, which helps me understand where my intitial BS2000 scum read started coming from.
- ^ 55 yup agree if that's what fancy meant
- 58 probably a good read, could be TMI, could just be a good read, so NAI for me
- ^ 59 feels easier to say as town so >randtown
- ... 80 this is a weird one for Meg because I don't see why they'd say they didn't like someone's entry if they didn't mean that it was alignment indicative.

furtiveglance (SE)

- ^ 33 response to Meg's 32 in an openly townie sort of way
- 37 no thoughts on furtive's move here, I dunno if this is townie or scummy so just NAI for me
- 68 yeah exactly what I was thinking here.

petapan

- ^ 34 votes Juice with a reasonable vote, cause Juice isn't interacting which is scummy, and pushing him to be more active is pro-town. Rest of the post is NAI cause an experienced player is supposed to make the newbies fun regardless of if they're town or scum, so really it'll be whether they follow through with it or not.
- 35 agrees with my thoughts on 31/32 so we're thinking the same sort of thing
- ^ 40 pushing furtive for more info was good but not hard to do as scum, the "no reason to distrust me" I think is >randtown
- ^ 48 reads as townie to me (tone)
- 70 agree with first point about esires. "fastest townread not warranted" part is prob nai for an experienced player. Kinda scummy to throw out there the idea that they'll town read people if those people town read peta but probably nai also.
- ^ 82 agree and it feels like a townie perspective
- 83 and 84 good questions but also easy from scum so nai
- ^ 88 feels like a mix of honesty (nai) and more importantly, pointing out that he doesn't necessarily feel like anyone's reads are coming from an informed pov, which is a townie thing to think about in response to BS2000's pressure.
- 89 93 97 99 all feel fine and nai vs BBT
- 96 i agree mostly and don't hate his list here. Maybe we just read town in a similar way.

NULL

BlueBloodedToffee

- 92 95 98 Standard BBT entrance is nai

esires

- ^ 78 agree with this post so feels town
- ... 91 ehh has Meg really displayed a high level of activity and scumhunting by post 91? I just looked back through to see if that makes any sense at all and as far as scumhunting, we've got 63 and that's about it. Everything else is nai banter or giving reads or explaining reads. Nope if Meg is town it's not because they're scum hunting at this stage. I didn't catch this one first time through. Follow up to furtive is really weak.

FancyPants (SE)

- 54 this is weird from Fancy and I need him to clarify some things (asked question in 251).
- 57 yeah could be thin, depending on what fancy was actually thinking

SCUM LEAN

BS2000

- ... 51 this post is definitely where I started questioning the slot on my first read. On second read a few things jump out. 1. Shading Meg which I was town reading, but on reread Meg's really only said 1 thing of importance so far so maybe not a bad shade. 2. The fumbling of "I thought it was E-1 but it's E-2!" feels staged but could just be sincere. 3. Furtive being a strong town read feels super weird at this stage and I don't get the confidence here. Peta town read sort of feels like a way to buddy with them. See my point under Meg's 53 post for more info.
- ... 66 I know people end up having problems with the "Lol a Newbie game with no true newbs in it now.", but I just don't. It's just truth at this point and nai. I kinda have problems with the "need to see more from Juice/Bulba/BBT. There's scum somewhere in there." part. I just get scum vibes when people say that, even if the Bulba and BBT slots end up reading scum to me. It's page 3 at this point and they've narrowed it down to 3 which feels scummy to me. Furtive's 68 post I think agrees.
- ... 87 another post where I just get scum vibes. The "maaaaan this feels performative" part feels, lol, performative to me. Could easily be newbie reaching or scum trying to look sincere. The part about Meg being loose and specifying that BS2000 is ok with Meg correcting people's language, also feels fake.

Bellaphant

- 72 (Bulba) probably sincere but nai because scum!Bulba knows this fact about town!Bulba
- 73 (Bulba) furtive's just null at this point IMO so I find the scum leaning read on him weird. Reasonable to need to see more from Juice slot.
- ... 76 (Bulba) I don't believe this coming from him. Also, esires wasn't offering themself up to be flipped, they were just ok with being the first wagon, which isn't necessarily a flip. Reasoning here feels fabricated.
- ^ 79 and 81 (Bulba) are reasonable.
- 85 (Bulba) misread on furtive's style i think


Please let me know if there are any follow ups or clarifications you wish for me to make.

[Rad]

UNVOTE:

i think as of right now there is probable scum in bbt/esires/fp and i don't think bbt and esires are aligned. bbt/f is like the level 0 solve but i dunno if fancypants is careless with his partner like that. bbt needs to get in here and post. realize the game was in a lull over the weekend but hasnt felt like he had the urgency to do anything after being run up

I don't hate your bbt/esires/fp PoE here but can you tell me why you're reading BS2000 town? I still have to reread the past 6 pages so if you've already explained this please just reference your post on it.

[Rad]

UNVOTE:

i think as of right now there is probable scum in bbt/esires/fp and i don't think bbt and esires are aligned. bbt/f is like the level 0 solve but i dunno if fancypants is careless with his partner like that. bbt needs to get in here and post. realize the game was in a lull over the weekend but hasnt felt like he had the urgency to do anything after being run up

I don't hate your bbt/esires/fp PoE here but can you tell me why you're reading BS2000 town? I still have to reread the past 6 pages so if you've already explained this please just reference your post on it.

Or let me clarify, if you're not reading them town, why are they not in your PoE?

[Rad]

Derr that came across wrong twice. Let's try again.

Why is BS2000 not in your list of probable scum? Are you reading them town? If so, help me out please, why?

[Rad]

Furtive....ya know I do get a weird vibe from their iso. Like, and I know some people get really peeved at looking for pairs in D1, but if Juice flipped scum, I feel like FG would be a decent target. But that's a small hunch i'm not gonna push.

Why are you drawing that scum team conclusion exactly?

[Rad]

Ok I'm up to beginning of page 8.

Peta has gone way up to town:

- ^ 132 and 133 finally boost them to town for me
- ^ 150 could push Juice slot easily but doesn't
- ^ 166 yeah peta notices the same thing about fancy's questions in 154 that I did
- ^ 168 and 169 are good progressions for the vote on Fancy

esires has gone up:

- ^ 129 really strong connection with my own thoughts and gives me townie reads
- ^ 149 giving Juice slot some leeway instead of pushing a LHF vote on them

Meg has remained town lean:

- 170 i agree with this post
- 172 i disagree here and think peta has a good point

Bulba is tanking:

- ... 156 asks Fancy about a BBT post that Fancy already replied to, fancy doesn't point this out at all and just re-explains his thoughts on BBT's 114
- ... 173 is so weak and the "if you don't do this i'll vote you" is bleehhh
- ... 174 still bleeehhh

BS2000 about the same:

- 152 ok with BBT or Juice. I know Juice is LHF but I don't disagree with the slot being voted at that point. But he says he's null on Fancy cause they seem not too interested, which is the same for Juice at that point. Weird scum combo with Juice and Furtive which I know isn't true, but also he offers no explanation.

Fancy tanking:

- ... 154 is boring and lacks real thought.
- ... 157 re-answers a read he already explained without push back

Furtive no movement that I noted, which makes sense why he ended up at null.

BBT has revolved around 114:

Ok so I hated this post from BBT. I think it's bad reasoning and I know BBT is a smart player, so I just hate it.

Alright.

BS made a post saying something along the lines of 'A newbie game with no newbies in' and this came across to me like scum complaining that they have no newbies and as such are at a disadvantage.

I remember others hated it too. Let's see...

120 - peta wondering wtf
121 - Bulba wondering wtf
123 - BS2000 wondering wtf and voting for BBT
129 - esires wondering wtf
153 - Fancy reads this as townie

[Rad]

sorry I didn't link a bunch of those post #s, they were just normal notes that I'd have turned into links but it's late and I'm going to sleep now

[Rad]

I'll come up with a vote tomorrow, not voting BBT here, need to reread last couple pages and I want to see what comes of my recent content + whatever bella can produce.

[Rad]

To clarify, I'm not voting bbt right this second. Maybe I do tomorrow when I'm caught up. So far my only issue is 114 and I will not hammer for that at this point. Gnight!

[Rad]

Rad, why am I null?

Let me correct myself and put you at a town lean here so far. When I said this:

Furtive no movement that I noted, which makes sense why he ended up at null.

I meant that in my initial read of the game, I had you at null. I have you at a town lean now. But I had no special notes on you in that update section so I was realizing why I had you at null in the initial read. Your posts so far are mostly not impactful, not overly townie or scummy, so I had a hard time getting any sort of read on you. In the reread I get some townie vibes here and there.

[Rad]

Honestly I think we'd get a ton of info from the flip, so I'm fine with it.

After you answer Peta's questions, what kind of info do you think we'd gain from a bbt flip here? Nothing has jumped out to me so far as "ahhh if bbt flips X then Y" - what are you seeing here?

[Rad]

Radfia

Uh huh do tell. Explain how this is scum!Rad here.

[Rad]

Anyway, aside from that, I had some thoughts on the game.

I'm finding it hard to articulate my thoughts on specific players and how I'm reading them based on posts, I feel it's too subjective. Instead, I'm going to make 2 assumptions (dangerous I know): 1) Mafia don't vote their partner apart from RVS and 2) Mafia don't hard townread their partner. I know these have exceptions sometimes but I'm going to use these 2 assumptions to eliminate some pairs and see what that leaves. I'll also just say if I think an interaction doesn't look scum/scum. If I don't like the results, I'll just ignore them.

Spoiler:

Posts 7, 8 and 10 for instance, aren't serious votes. So I don't see why mafia wouldn't RVS vote their partner, I'm not counting these votes.

Post 14 is something a mafia might ask their partner, I won't rule this possibility out.

15 from Fancypants is different, not the vote which I don't consider unpaired but the 2 reads which I do. So I'm going to rule out BS/Fancypants.

Posts 18 and 19 surely indicate that esires/Fancypants is not the mafia team.

I think 28 could be paired as there was no vote backing it up, and see no reason to rule out Fancypants/Meg.

In 39, Bellaphant (formerly Bulbazoor) puts esires at E-2 quite early on. Not paired in my eyes. There's also 76 in which Bulbazoor shades esires.

Based on 42 and 78, I don't think it's BS/esires. Esires also puts a second vote on Rad (formerly Juice) - not the mafia team.

51 indicates that BS/Meg is out.

Fancypants put Rad (Juice) at E-2 in 54. Unpaired.

I'd consider 61 unlikely to come from a partner. No more Fancypants/Meg then.

I think 79 and 108 clear Bellaphant (Bulbazoor)/Meg.

200 indicates Bellaphant (Bulbazoor)/BS200 is not the team.

After this I didn't see much else that I thought wasn't partner indicative - with regards to people's end of day scumpools or townreads I think mafia are more likely to put false associatives in there so I don't pay it as much heed. Just to recap then, here are the pairs I've ruled out:

Bellaphant/BS200
Bellaphant/Esires
Bellaphant/MegAzumarill
BS200/Fancypants
BS200/Esires
BS200/MegAzumarill
Esires/Fancypants
Esires/Rad
Fancypants/MegAzumarill
Fancypants/Rad

Or, in a different format:
Bellaphant pairs with Fancypants or Rad
BS200 pairs with Rad
Esires pairs with MegAzumarill
Fancypants pairs with Bellaphant
MegAzumarill pairs with Esires or Rad
Rad pairs with Bellaphant, BS200 or MegAzumarill

Practical conclusions to draw: Rad has partner equity with the most players.

Personally, I think it's probably Bellaphant with Rad, which also happens to be the 2 replacements. If both mafia did just randomly replace out then this game is pretty scuffed.

Man this is some weak as hell logic trying to sort all the players before a scum flip based on interactions and voting me just because you've concluded I have the most "partner equity". It's pretty try hard solvey though so might make you town. Also your analysis at least lines up with 312.

1) Mafia don't vote their partner apart from RVS and 2) Mafia don't hard townread their partner.

These assumptions are just pure WIFOM and at best, only useful for some meta argument against a single person that has set a precedent. Not only do they have exceptions, but they further assume everyone's scum play is similar and it's just not. #1's not even close to reasonable imo. It depends on the circumstance, how likely it is for that wagon to flip, what they gain/lose from it, etc. Voting a partner is super common from what I've seen.

Still: can you walk me through your read on esires?

Why? You said you don't scumread them either. So neither of us would be trying to convince the other.

Because if you are paired we'd like your opinion for the record.

I didn't pick rad as scum in that newbie. @rad, any other completed scum games?

Just 2099 and 2097 so far. I took a really laid back helpful approach in 2099 and got town read pretty hard for it before BBT replaced in.

[Rad]

repp me out. i refuse to play with Bulba

Did Juice and Bulbazoor argue before this? If not, why did Juice namedrop Bulbazoor? Can't believe I've just noticed this.

It involves another finished newbie game we were all in.

I'll post the link when I can get on something that isn't a phone.

Its the GTA themed newbie though. Nothing relevant really Bulba just self hammered as town and Juice was annoyed.

Fancy since you were in the other game, knowing how Bulba's play there + self hammer led to Juice's outburst there followed by a rep out here, do you see that reaction coming from scum!Juice here? During my initial read before repping in I read it as a hard town response. I can see a case for Bulba/Juice scum team but felt like town!Juice was significantly more likely to have that reaction.

[Rad]

Anyway, aside from that, I had some thoughts on the game.

I'm finding it hard to articulate my thoughts on specific players and how I'm reading them based on posts, I feel it's too subjective. Instead, I'm going to make 2 assumptions (dangerous I know): 1) Mafia don't vote their partner apart from RVS and 2) Mafia don't hard townread their partner. I know these have exceptions sometimes but I'm going to use these 2 assumptions to eliminate some pairs and see what that leaves. I'll also just say if I think an interaction doesn't look scum/scum. If I don't like the results, I'll just ignore them.

Spoiler:

Posts 7, 8 and 10 for instance, aren't serious votes. So I don't see why mafia wouldn't RVS vote their partner, I'm not counting these votes.

Post 14 is something a mafia might ask their partner, I won't rule this possibility out.

15 from Fancypants is different, not the vote which I don't consider unpaired but the 2 reads which I do. So I'm going to rule out BS/Fancypants.

Posts 18 and 19 surely indicate that esires/Fancypants is not the mafia team.

I think 28 could be paired as there was no vote backing it up, and see no reason to rule out Fancypants/Meg.

In 39, Bellaphant (formerly Bulbazoor) puts esires at E-2 quite early on. Not paired in my eyes. There's also 76 in which Bulbazoor shades esires.

Based on 42 and 78, I don't think it's BS/esires. Esires also puts a second vote on Rad (formerly Juice) - not the mafia team.

51 indicates that BS/Meg is out.

Fancypants put Rad (Juice) at E-2 in 54. Unpaired.

I'd consider 61 unlikely to come from a partner. No more Fancypants/Meg then.

I think 79 and 108 clear Bellaphant (Bulbazoor)/Meg.

200 indicates Bellaphant (Bulbazoor)/BS200 is not the team.

After this I didn't see much else that I thought wasn't partner indicative - with regards to people's end of day scumpools or townreads I think mafia are more likely to put false associatives in there so I don't pay it as much heed. Just to recap then, here are the pairs I've ruled out:

Bellaphant/BS200
Bellaphant/Esires
Bellaphant/MegAzumarill
BS200/Fancypants
BS200/Esires
BS200/MegAzumarill
Esires/Fancypants
Esires/Rad
Fancypants/MegAzumarill
Fancypants/Rad

Or, in a different format:
Bellaphant pairs with Fancypants or Rad
BS200 pairs with Rad
Esires pairs with MegAzumarill
Fancypants pairs with Bellaphant
MegAzumarill pairs with Esires or Rad
Rad pairs with Bellaphant, BS200 or MegAzumarill

Practical conclusions to draw: Rad has partner equity with the most players.

Personally, I think it's probably Bellaphant with Rad, which also happens to be the 2 replacements. If both mafia did just randomly replace out then this game is pretty scuffed.

This feels divorced from context somewhat. The conclusion that it should be the slot that has had the least interaction in the game (through no fault of their own) is scum because they have the least non partnered actions with people isn't a great conclusion here.

Yeah I guess the real conclusion from his analysis was "Juice was low activity poster and so he's probably scum." I'm not against policy flips on low activity posters but you do have me now and I'm not low activity.

I think peta's earlier post is also relevant in why this analysis from furtive isn't great:

basically i think bs2000's "small hunch" bit in 152 where he's drawing a connection between players but not overtly suggesting they are teammates or whatever, reads like a very real thought to me, come across as someone legitimately thinking about the game. i do that sort of thing where i'll see an interaction and consider if it could possibly be a teammate interaction a lot, but i tend not to out it because you're very unlikely to be correct on those type of reads on day 1, especially in a game with only 2 scum. scum can fake arguments about people being teamed and often do because it's easier to argue associations, but the way bs2000 is doing that wasn't intent on selling anyone on voting juice, just "oh here's a thought i had, take note of this"

for bulbazoor 173 just reads very town to me. that looks like someone who is scumhunting. i believe the suspicion and he's pressuring his target to contribute rather than just calling for his head.

Using it as a lense for furtive's 331:

1. Everyone has these thoughts of potential pairings but it could be a tell on how you use the thought
2. 331 comes across to me as someone who's legitimately thinking about the game
3. Pairings are very unlikely to be correct reads on day 1 (where all these reads in his spoiler came from)
4. "scum can fake arguments about people being teamed and often do because it's easier to argue associations, but the way bs2000 is doing that wasn't intent on selling anyone on voting juice" - which is interesting because furtive's actually using this analysis to push me, as opposed to bs2000 who peta read as townie for not pushing. I'm not sure if I agree or disagree with peta's view of how town/scum would approach this. I lean towards disagreeing but also realize that peta's much more experienced than I am.

Something that's striking me as interesting in furtive's 331 is that most of the spoilered points come from the first 100 posts, so very early with a lot of RVS, and then it just jumps to 200 and stops like he got bored of finding evidence for his theory. Then it all lines up perfectly with Meg/Bella/Rad as the suspects. This could counter #2 above for me.

331's feeling much less townie now.

[Rad]

Why don't you find some telling interactions in the 200 to 300 range? Tell me what I missed or declined to comment on.

No thanks. I think your approach is bad and wouldn't want to continue it. My pointing this out was the fact that you supposedly felt your approach was good yet you stopped doing it very early and drew your conclusions based on only the first 100 posts were valid enough to push a vote on me.

The bolded line is quite sinister to me. You're saying "I lean towards disagreeing" i.e. you don't think I'm scum using pre-flip associatives to push you but "peta's more experienced" i.e. petapan definitely would say that. In this way, you're putting words in a dead town's mouth, and appealing to authority by outsourcing the responsibility of calling me mafia to someone we all know is town. This is all highly irregular and deeply offensive to myself and petapan equally.

Nah I'm not claiming peta would find you to be scum here. I'm pointing out that I disagree with his take on BS2000 and am curious because I feel like you're doing the opposite of what peta believed was townie of BS2000. I think it's perfectly reasonable to point out what a confirmed dead townie believed and even use it as a reference for building my own read, especially when they're likely to be the better player. I also doubt his read on this type of thing would be so black and white as to label BS2000 definitely town for it and you definitely scum for it.

Finally, if your mini thought-progression on me was meant to look natural (ending with "much less townie now"), you need to try harder than that. This entire post is not written for me, or for your own organisation of thoughts, it's written for town who may be misled into voting for me. This is evidenced by your sneaky implication that petapan would want me gone, based on their theoretical post regarding a different player.

Yeah my views on you have changed given more thought on it. 331 isn't some auto townie post after some additional thought. I still don't know if I find you to be more scummy or less from your 331. I'm thinking about it, and also throwing my thoughts out there for others to agree or disagree on. If you think my progression has been unnatural, feel free to keep that vote on me. If you're town, consider whether this is scum!Rad presenting things that can potentially get furtive mislimmed or town!Rad openly discussing thoughts with town to get other opinions on an unknown alignment furtive.

Make no mistake, if you do end up killing me, my blood is on your hands (as well as others' of course). Why don't you acknowledge that these are your thoughts and wishes, and yours alone?

Oh so very dramatic of you. But town!furtive can be very dramatic so ehhh. Let's get something straight furtive, I can openly lean on dead town's posts and still be town.

[Rad]

Maybe a couple more replacements and we'll have an active game.

VOTE: furtiveglance

I'll do some explaining tomorrow but I kind of want to vote here for now.

It's past tomorrow, wanna do some explaining for that vote?

[Rad]

Fancy do you have any completed scum games I can look at?

[Rad]

Cool lots of new content. Replacements should have plenty to go on here. I'll dig in more tonight when I have a chance. I'm pretty confident calling Fancy town here. This is day 1 Newbie 2099 level obvtown play from him IMO. I know he'll get paranoid at me saying that but that's ok, I'll make up for it. I tend to obvtown in a similar way in my town games which should feel different to him than how I approached my recent scum game with him (and he's already noticing that so thumbs up fancy!).

[Rad]

I will never vote here.

(This is furtive talking about Fancy in the spoiler) This is really tough for scum to claim I think. It's one thing to hold someone up as a high town read. It's another to straight claim they'll never vote here. It's just risky as scum cause you limit your options. Less risky d2 than d1 of course. Tbh if he was saying this about anyone else in this game (my slot included) I'd have a hard time believing him. If he said this about fancy before today's input, I'd also have a hard time believing him. But today's content was really telling in terms of town!Fancy so I think this is not only reasonable, but maybe difficult to notice as scum and probably risky to claim as scum. ++townie here for furtive.

Thoughts: I was reading 200 when I realised BS200 was town. How poetic. I was about to call them scum for their nonsensical progressions on Petapan and Meg, and strange omgus on BBT. But scum doesn't usually set up a push on a player and then change on a dime, not in my experience. I want to say more but that's it for me. There's no agenda to their play. Tonally as well, their thoughts look unguarded and natural. I'll have to keep this one short.

I actually remember getting a scum read out of BS2000's 200. I was reading that slot scum for a while at that point though so maybe conf bias. I'll consider this.

But the chances of Bella's reads matching Bulba's so closely is something I can't quite get over. What I'm considering is that these voting preferences are decided by the necessity of avoiding a partner rather than the earnest guess at a mafia.

Ehh this is really weak reasoning I think. There are plenty of players for scum!Bella to choose from here that don't have to align to some necessity. If I was scum!Bella (or scum!myself for that matter, since we both replaced at the same time) I'd come in and be very choosey about who I picked and doubt I would feel forced into a specific PoE based on being scum. Even peta wasn't necessarily obvtown when we replaced in IMO.

Thoughts: For one of the highest posters, Meg's ISO is shockingly empty. You can count the posts in which they share their own thoughts on other players on the fingers of one hand. All they do is ask questions of other players. Town certainly doesn't usually play like this. I view their current push on me as opportunistic, agenda-driven and I seem to be the only player in the game they like to talk about at the moment. I would be very surprised if Meg was town this game. Very surprised indeed.

I'll keep this in mind as I look over Meg. One of the things I noticed in the reread was esire's 91 which claims Meg was displaying a high level of activity and doing a lot of scumhunting. Nope! Not at that point. I'll be reading over meg again.

[Rad]

Alright let's look at Meg's scum case on Furtive.

This strikes me as an odd way to try and approach this. If you especially since you had already shown concern for the lack of posting trying to move the game forward by posting a serious vote not labelled as such strikes me as counterintuitive.

Alright but town can be odd and do silly things that we don't necessarily understand or agree with. Are you sure this is scummy?

This stirs the pot and keeps attention away from furtive, while not prompting any kind of interaction between BS and furtive. It's weak and directionless and doesn't have the intent to decipher alignment.

Nah I agree with Furtive in 68 and I think it was worth him pointing out.

The only times furtive has ever prompted a response are entirely defensive. In this post as well as another addressing Rad, the only times furtive has inquired of another, have been in ways so that either are about furtive, or his thoughts. I see no intent in actually solving or trying to determine alignment through any form of inquiry.

That's a bold claim about Furtive's play at that stage (189) that I'll have to read back over to confirm/deny.

Once again, even when pushing a scumread instead of putting an argument together instead furtiveglance lashes himself onto an observation. They don't put together cases that could be analysed or scumreads that can be challenged. They work in vague weak arguments while being concerned about their own slot more than the game around them.

Couple things here.

First, I don't think it's necessarily scummy to agree with a conclusion others have already made. You don't have to just push your own case to be townie. Plenty of town can just agree with cases that make sense. But beyond that -

@Meg how do you feel about Furtive's more recent content that does in fact lean on putting together cases?

Second, I'm super defensive of my slot as town. I don't see why that's just blanket scummy. Generally I will defend the hell out of my slot unless I believe it's in town's best interest not to.

Overall furtiveglance's play day 1 has read as both overinformed through lack of inquisition, and unreasoned, through lack of evidence. It reads like scum making filler to not go over the edge for lurking and looking just invested enough to get by.

I do think Furtive's early play was lacking and mostly inconsequential. I think I've noted that already and I think furtive even mentioned that too. I don't think it necessarily makes him scum here though.

@Meg - Have your thoughts changed from recent content at all?

Overall this case feels weak and latches onto points that I feel I would make as scum:

1. Overly scrutinizing early game moves.
2. Criticizing comments that don't necessarily move the game forward.
3. Claiming a slot isn't putting in the work and instead leaning on others.
4. Claiming a slot is just thinking about themself instead of what's best for town.

It's not that any of these points taken separately are necessarily invalid, but they're all obvious points I would make if I was scum trying to push a slot and they're all here in this case. Like I could see scum!Rad making your post here for sure.

[Rad]

I thought I'd do some more 'busy work' since the last post went down really well

I'll do some dreaded 'VCA' (or just checking out everyone's reasons for voting BBT).

Spoiler:

First one is on Crabulous, whom BBT replaced, from Rad (Juice) in 10. This seems to be an 'RVS' vote as it is accompanied by a 'lol'. Not much to read into here.

Petapan

then gets on BBT in 89. 90 would imply that petapan voted someone outside of their townreads (perhaps Meg, Esires and me at the time).

MegAzumarill is the 3rd voter of BBT in 109, citing BBT voting BS200 without explanation in 100.

It's at this point (113) that petapan moves to BS200, and BBT is back on 2 votes (Rad (Juice), MegAzumarill).

BS200 puts BBT back up to 3 votes in 123, seemingly retaliating to BBT criticising their "no newbies" comment.
My own take on this is that mafia probably wouldn't feel salty about there being no newbies in a game, and also that the kind of player who would notice this and mention it would probably do so as town or as mafia. As for the omgus, what sticks out to me is the votecount at the time (3 each for BS200 and BBT). As soon as BS200 became the highest wagon they made it even. I can see a survivalist mentality behind that, especially given the lack of a scumread on BBT beforehand. They had only sussed Meg and Petapan previously, voting Meg in RVS and then being ok with it later.

The next development is Juice unvoting BBT in 128. This is unexplained.

I vote BBT in 138 - E-2.

Esires puts BBT at E-1 in 212. The justification given is this infamous "no newbies" remark (66 from BS200) which BBT scumreads in 114. Esires calls it 'a stretch', that could even be 'distancing'. Personally, I don't think I'd consider bussing between BBT and BS200 so early on in the game, so it's surprising that Esires is seriously considering this.

Meg briefly unvotes BBT to vote Esires before being told by petapan that Esires is inactive. Meg then gets back on BBT (289).

Petapan

hammers in 299.

Conclusion: clearing Petapan and myself, BS200, Esires and Meg ended the day on BBT. I'd say Meg's reasoning in 109 is fair enough, so if there's scum on the wagon I'd say BS200.

Thanks for putting this together Furtive.

I don't like Meg's jumping around. Initial vote is the wishy washy "I dunno but I don't like it" which is the same he's given to me recently in 350.

I don't mind Esire's vote at all. I'll try to reread Esire's ISO tomorrow though since they've gotten a lot of scum reads so far.

BS2000's vote in 123 doesn't feel great. Though I do agree with him that it's a wild take from BBT, it feels opportunistic to me. At the time I think it's the 3rd vote (behind Meg and Juice) and it just sits there for the rest of the day even when others jump off and on.

Furtive's vote here isn't great but it's well before furtive started openly giving the game some attention. Like if I have to vote on people from just that point in time, maybe I vote furtive, but probably not now.

[Rad]

You know in mafia games, when a few town just happen to jump on a mafia and it's great? That's what I thought happened with BBT. I think Rad townread BBT or something and I disagreed.

Yeah just to confirm, BBT was null to me because I hadn't caught up quite yet, and also BBT's a hard read for me in general, even coming out of a scum game with him. So is Bella for that matter. Some players you just have a hard time reading and I think that's different for everyone. I feel like Furtive's "ya know I think this is just scum BBT and we lucked out" came across as pretty sincere and if scum!Furtive, that's pretty ballsy for how direct and assertive it was, so I lean towards town there.

[Rad]

Spoiler:

VOTE: MegAzumarill

i can probably guess why you're doing this but explain it anyway?

It was actually a serious vote rather than plainly RTing, I left it naked to see what the reaction would be. Meg already felt different from Mewbie 2092 in this game, more jokey in a way.

This strikes me as an odd way to try and approach this. If you especially since you had already shown concern for the lack of posting trying to move the game forward by posting a serious vote not labelled as such strikes me as counterintuitive.

Lol a Newbie game with no true newbs in it now.

@Mod can we get a current votecount?

I think we have 3 on Juice and 3 on esires?

Starting to get townvibes from Meg's exchange with FancyPants. Need to see more from Juice/Bulba/BBT. There's scum somewhere in there.

This is the kind of post that I'd probably make as scum, feels a bit safe. Maybe with your partner in the 3 'sus' players but never follow up on it.

This stirs the pot and keeps attention away from furtive, while not prompting any kind of interaction between BS and furtive. It's weak and directionless and doesn't have the intent to decipher alignment.

Hi guys, any questions for me?

The only times furtive has ever prompted a response are entirely defensive. In this post as well as another addressing Rad, the only times furtive has inquired of another, have been in ways so that either are about furtive, or his thoughts. I see no intent in actually solving or trying to determine alignment through any form of inquiry.

Alright.

BS made a post saying something along the lines of 'A newbie game with no newbies in' and this came across to me like scum complaining that they have no newbies and as such are at a disadvantage.

I don't think this is towny Rad. I feel like this is one of those votes that just happens to be mafia and we lucked out on this one.

Once again, even when pushing a scumread instead of putting an argument together instead furtiveglance lashes himself onto an observation. They don't put together cases that could be analysed or scumreads that can be challenged. They work in vague weak arguments while being concerned about their own slot more than the game around them.

Overall furtiveglance's play day 1 has read as both overinformed through lack of inquisition, and unreasoned, through lack of evidence. It reads like scum making filler to not go over the edge for lurking and looking just invested enough to get by.

Furtive, could you explain your thought processes on your reads over the course of day 1? (as well as currently)

"The only times furtive has ever prompted a response are entirely defensive". Do you mean I only respond when defending myself? That hasn't been the case. I don't feel I've really been attacked much this game, the votes on me are usually silent apart from this post. As for "being concerned about their own slot", I'm more interested and likely to respond to posts about me. I think that's human nature, and definitely how I play. If I see some other players arguing I usually won't get involved, or I won't find it interesting until a later point (or never).

My past reads have been explained enough for me, if you want more explanation be more specific. As for my current reads, I need more time to work out what they are.

I defined what I was talking about as being not just being concerned with tour own slot, but a lack of concern with other slots. It's town's nature to try to figure out other's slots, and not scum's.

Stating a read isn't explaining it. Saying its because of a post and leaving it at that is also not explaining it.

Meg this feels kinda scummy tbh, just being open with you here. I think you're being a bit too definitive about what town does vs what scum does. Like town can easily just have a read and not explain it. If you're town here, I think you could be overthinking things. More realistically I feel like scum are going to try to really push a strict logical perspective on things when it benefits them, kinda like you are here. The game has plenty of illogical aspects to it though, cause it involves people, so this feels super off to me.

[Rad]

331 from Furtive, is the busy work where he pairs people. I kinda like that kind of effort post but I don't agree with the assumptions and it's not really the "good" kind of effort post that gets us closer to scum IMO.

Do you just think "throw it all out because scum might bus/shade their partner/whatever"? Have you actually read my individual points? I think there's some decent stuff in there.

There's a lot different from a vote on a partner to a bus on a partner is where some error lies in that argument.
Like yes, scum is at risk to autoloss if they bus in this setup, it's heavily discouraged. But your argument assumes scum never crossvote even when they think (or even know) it won't jeopardize their ally.

Particularly scum under pressure vote their partners significantly more than would be expected.

Yup agree. I still don't like 331 even with reading furtive town here.

[Rad]

OK fully caught up, sorry for making the last few pages so confusing but people started posting while I was spewing.

@Furtive
I'm not sure I agree that 331 has good insight, I have to agree that the assumptions underlying are flawed.

I like this post a lot better:

I thought I'd do some more 'busy work' since the last post went down really well

I'll do some dreaded 'VCA' (or just checking out everyone's reasons for voting BBT).

Spoiler:

First one is on Crabulous, whom BBT replaced, from Rad (Juice) in 10. This seems to be an 'RVS' vote as it is accompanied by a 'lol'. Not much to read into here.

Petapan

then gets on BBT in 89. 90 would imply that petapan voted someone outside of their townreads (perhaps Meg, Esires and me at the time).

MegAzumarill is the 3rd voter of BBT in 109, citing BBT voting BS200 without explanation in 100.

PEDIT:
I'll comment on the Megazumaril case, I don't hate it but tl:dr it's basically just that FG has done some coasting up until recently, which I kinda agree with but doesn't actually say much I've done similar and so has Meg themselves.

It's at this point (113) that petapan moves to BS200, and BBT is back on 2 votes (Rad (Juice), MegAzumarill).

BS200 puts BBT back up to 3 votes in 123, seemingly retaliating to BBT criticising their "no newbies" comment.
My own take on this is that mafia probably wouldn't feel salty about there being no newbies in a game, and also that the kind of player who would notice this and mention it would probably do so as town or as mafia. As for the omgus, what sticks out to me is the votecount at the time (3 each for BS200 and BBT). As soon as BS200 became the highest wagon they made it even. I can see a survivalist mentality behind that, especially given the lack of a scumread on BBT beforehand. They had only sussed Meg and Petapan previously, voting Meg in RVS and then being ok with it later.

The next development is Juice unvoting BBT in 128. This is unexplained.

I vote BBT in 138 - E-2.

Esires puts BBT at E-1 in 212. The justification given is this infamous "no newbies" remark (66 from BS200) which BBT scumreads in 114. Esires calls it 'a stretch', that could even be 'distancing'. Personally, I don't think I'd consider bussing between BBT and BS200 so early on in the game, so it's surprising that Esires is seriously considering this.

Meg briefly unvotes BBT to vote Esires before being told by petapan that Esires is inactive. Meg then gets back on BBT (289).

Petapan

hammers in 299.

Conclusion: clearing Petapan and myself, BS200, Esires and Meg ended the day on BBT.

I'd say Meg's reasoning in 109 is fair enough,

so if there's scum on the wagon I'd say BS200.

Except I disagree with the bolded bit above, why do you think that vote in 109 was fair enough?

My favourite vote is actually VOTE: Esires

Although I'm not super sold on any reads thus far, superficially from town to scum my reads go something like:
Bellaphant
Rad
BS2000
furtiveglance
MegAzumarill
esires

But I'm not super confident, kinda a hard game in that I usually have 2 or 3 VERY strong town reads at this point and I don't really.

Anyone wanna argue with me about my order?

How am I so far down? Seriously. I am literally begging you to move me up even one space.

You're too likable and too experienced, I'm sorry I've been hurt before .

LOL i feel like this is referencing me specifically. That was my plan for newbie 2099 To be reasonable and pro-town and not offensive. Worked well until BBT entered lol

[Rad]

I don't hate 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 by Meg. I actually find that sequence kinda townie w/regards to vibes.

[Rad]

OK fully caught up, sorry for making the last few pages so confusing but people started posting while I was spewing.

@Furtive
I'm not sure I agree that 331 has good insight, I have to agree that the assumptions underlying are flawed.

I like this post a lot better:

I thought I'd do some more 'busy work' since the last post went down really well

I'll do some dreaded 'VCA' (or just checking out everyone's reasons for voting BBT).

Spoiler:

First one is on Crabulous, whom BBT replaced, from Rad (Juice) in 10. This seems to be an 'RVS' vote as it is accompanied by a 'lol'. Not much to read into here.

Petapan

then gets on BBT in 89. 90 would imply that petapan voted someone outside of their townreads (perhaps Meg, Esires and me at the time).

MegAzumarill is the 3rd voter of BBT in 109, citing BBT voting BS200 without explanation in 100.

PEDIT:
I'll comment on the Megazumaril case, I don't hate it but tl:dr it's basically just that FG has done some coasting up until recently, which I kinda agree with but doesn't actually say much I've done similar and so has Meg themselves.

It's at this point (113) that petapan moves to BS200, and BBT is back on 2 votes (Rad (Juice), MegAzumarill).

BS200 puts BBT back up to 3 votes in 123, seemingly retaliating to BBT criticising their "no newbies" comment.
My own take on this is that mafia probably wouldn't feel salty about there being no newbies in a game, and also that the kind of player who would notice this and mention it would probably do so as town or as mafia. As for the omgus, what sticks out to me is the votecount at the time (3 each for BS200 and BBT). As soon as BS200 became the highest wagon they made it even. I can see a survivalist mentality behind that, especially given the lack of a scumread on BBT beforehand. They had only sussed Meg and Petapan previously, voting Meg in RVS and then being ok with it later.

The next development is Juice unvoting BBT in 128. This is unexplained.

I vote BBT in 138 - E-2.

Esires puts BBT at E-1 in 212. The justification given is this infamous "no newbies" remark (66 from BS200) which BBT scumreads in 114. Esires calls it 'a stretch', that could even be 'distancing'. Personally, I don't think I'd consider bussing between BBT and BS200 so early on in the game, so it's surprising that Esires is seriously considering this.

Meg briefly unvotes BBT to vote Esires before being told by petapan that Esires is inactive. Meg then gets back on BBT (289).

Petapan

hammers in 299.

Conclusion: clearing Petapan and myself, BS200, Esires and Meg ended the day on BBT.

I'd say Meg's reasoning in 109 is fair enough,

so if there's scum on the wagon I'd say BS200.

Except I disagree with the bolded bit above, why do you think that vote in 109 was fair enough?

My favourite vote is actually VOTE: Esires

Although I'm not super sold on any reads thus far, superficially from town to scum my reads go something like:
Bellaphant
Rad
BS2000
furtiveglance
MegAzumarill
esires

But I'm not super confident, kinda a hard game in that I usually have 2 or 3 VERY strong town reads at this point and I don't really.

Anyone wanna argue with me about my order?

My list is currently something like:

Hard town:
FancyPants

Prob Town:
Furtive

Maybe Town:
Esires
Meg

Maybe Scum:
Bella

Prob Scum:
BS2000

If BS2000 is town here, could easily be Meg/Bella. Maybe I'm missing something with Esires. Strongly doubting furtive as scum. Willing to bet game on Fancy not scum. Happy with town block of Fancy/Furtive/Me right now.

I think the right move here is to wait on replacements to better read all the slots. Gun to my head I vote out BS2000 or Bella. I'm hesitant on BS2000 because others are town reading them so maybe I'm just missing it. Their entry into today was bad though and they replaced out, and I already had a scum read on them, so not feeling the townie BS2000 vibes right now. I would not vote Meg here given they're producing way more content that will be easier to read end game, so more likely not scum than Bella or BS2000.

My Esires read is lowered due to others reading them scum. I want to list them next to Furtive but I feel hesitant because of others' reads.

So yeah, interesting that me and Fancy have some very conflicting views here.

I don't think the Bella top #1 makes sense. I don't think Bulba was playing the same as last game here. In fact I was looking at that specifically and thought he felt very different here which is heavily influencing my read.

Esires I just read as much more town than Fancy does.

Meg's low for both of us. If replacements come in and feel good Meg will probably drop further for me.

[Rad]

As for Bulba/Bella yeah maybe I was too kind to that slot, however I like that he pokes me for town reading BBT when he was scum reading him, he also provided a reason for scumreading BBT which a lot of people didn't (162)

Like this in particular Fancy, you read Bulba town for.

Oh I see what you’re getting at, because I seemed salty about the experienced players as well.
I don’t think it’s related.my style is just heavily PoE focused and when there is a bunch of heavy weight scum players in the game PoE becomes much more difficult.

But your point is taken.

Can you say why BBTs comment pings you as scummy? Is it because you think it’s flimsy reasoning?

It is both very flimsy and also something that doesn't ping me as particularly town. I would like to hear more from them. It seems like a huge reach to make from "a newbie game with no newbies in it" which is NAI to me.

I would expect better reasoning to scumread someone from someone of BBT's experience level tbh.

"flimsy and doesn't ping me as town" is cheap and easy as scum.

"I want to hear more from them" is cheap and easy as scum.

Pointing out that BS2000's 66 was NAI is super easy and everyone already agrees.

Then he shades the hell out of town!BBT with "i would expect better of someone with BBT's experience". Compare this to my own shade in 258 and it just feels different. Bulba's approach is "he should know better" and my approach is "this bothers me." Bulba feels informed here, like BBT's making the wrong call, or he's trying to save BS2000.

[Rad]

Rad, I'm going to insist that 200 from BS200 about Bella (Bulba) is not a partner interaction, even in the unlikely scenario of scum!BS200. In this post I also said that 79 and 108 made it unlikely for Bella and Meg to be paired. Looking back now, 79 is actually perfectly reasonable as scum/scum (questioning a TR on your partner), but I can't get over 108 - would Meg have casually towned their partner as mafia? Maybe one of my townreads is wrong.

Alright furtive, let's address this one at a time.

200 from BS2000, he states about Bulba:

I just find them the most agreeable and reasonable player in this game to me. I think it's as simple as that.

In a scum!BS2000 scum!Bulba/Bella scenario, if Bulba's being the most reasonable person in the room, it's not all that difficult to say, and scum can absolutely be the most reasonable person in the room. As long as BS2000 can point to a few posts and say "see look how reasonable Bulba was being" after scum!Bulba flips red, there's no reason he shouldn't say that there.

Interesting. Why do you townread meg? I haven't seen anything particularly towny from him.

I'd absolutely point to a scum partner and say this. It's not super incriminating, it holds very little weight, and your partner's probably not doing anything particularly towny so why not point it out? In my last game scum!BBT pointed out some really scummy shit I was doing (avoiding talking to him) that was far more dangerous than what Bulba's saying here in a scum!Bulba scum!Meg world.

bulba can be town

Yeah I lean towards aggreeing with you here. Little bold to just call out a partner as town like that. Nothing's impossible but I lean towards this being something that's more likely a non-partner thing.

[Rad]

I have absolutely no problem voting as either alignment. There's a couple things stopping me from voting right now:

1. We're waiting on 2 replacements.
2. I get stronger reads when people are interacting with my slot because I know its alignment. Juice was inactive and wasn't interacted with much. I'm active, but again, we got 2 people who aren't in the game right now and I didn't have much of a chance to interact with them before end of day1. It'll be easier for me to come to a vote when we've got a full game of active people.

I think I've been very open with where my reads sit regardless of not voting anyone yet.

[Rad]

@rad, any questions my way?

Nothing specific at the moment Bella

[Rad]

Bella, furtive leaned on 114 for the vote like others were doing.

Alright.

BS made a post saying something along the lines of 'A newbie game with no newbies in' and this came across to me like scum complaining that they have no newbies and as such are at a disadvantage.

I don't think this is towny Rad. I feel like this is one of those votes that just happens to be mafia and we lucked out on this one.

[Rad]

Which was in response to my post here:

To clarify, I'm not voting bbt right this second. Maybe I do tomorrow when I'm caught up. So far my only issue is 114 and I will not hammer for that at this point. Gnight!

[Rad]

Oh fun, hey Corwin, welcome.

Ok catch up time for me!

[Rad]

Namely your town read on Esires, can you articulate why?

Sure! And just in time for Corwin to replace into the Esires slot.

Here are my notes on Esires. I posted most of these but not all, so a couple will be new here:

(previously posted, to remind - ^ is towny, ... is scummy, rest is null but noteworthy)
- ^ 78 agree with this post so feels town
- ... 91 ehh has Meg really displayed a high level of activity and scumhunting by post 91? I just looked back through to see if that makes any sense at all and as far as scumhunting, we've got 63 and that's about it. Everything else is nai banter or giving reads or explaining reads. Nope if Meg is town it's not because they're scum hunting at this stage. I didn't catch this one first time through. Follow up to furtive is really weak.
- ^ 129 really strong connection with my own thoughts and gives me townie reads
- ^ 149 giving Juice slot some leeway instead of pushing a LHF vote on them

(new)
- ^ 212 once again instead of jumping on LHF juice he pushes a probably town read on him. Juice at this stage just isn't someone you need to try to pocket, it's someone you want to set up for a policy flip later, and that's harder if you're openly reading them town.
- 235 BUT there's the potential setting up the Juice slot for a flip later. It's not unreasonable from a town perspective either though so hard to say.

I have 2 main take-aways from the Esires slot at this point.

1. He's not pushing the LHF that I know the Juice slot is and is actively suggesting the slot is town, aside from that ending post.
2. 91 about Meg is just wrong IMO and feels really weird of him to say.

Why you find this sequence townie.

These posts come out quickly, in a row, and show a natural train of thought that feels like someone who's in the middle of considering multiple perspectives.
407 is a reasonable response to furtive's 401 and kinda makes 401 look not all that great.
408 is an interesting point.
409 shows some clarification of what Meg's main problem is which is interesting like 408.
410 immediately follows with an understanding that maybe he could have presented things differently which is easier to just spit out without much thought as town than scum.
412 is a very quick shift in topic to something that feels like a genuine "let's move on and find out more info on something else I care about", and that topic is one I think makes sense - why does Fancy have Bella so high (he includes me there but then specifies that he's really more interested in the Bella read).

Sure all doable as scum but the way it came together and the tone I read from it feels townie.

[Rad]

Alright Fancy, regarding your 474. Interesting shift on the Bulba/Bella slot here. As someone who leans scum on that slot, I'm going to try to dissect your case as best as I can.

1. I think 34 and 35 have some alignment indicative content actually. The vote on Juice puts pressure on a slot that needs to give input and 35 is probably slightly more >randtown than nai.

2. I read this post as NAI.

3. 147 probably NAI. I'm curious if he's been entertaining the BBT wagon openly before that post though cause that could be telling. 173 I agree and I mentioned before I thought it was weak. It feels like an act. 174 further feels like an act.

4. I don't think this point is fair to expect an alternative from Bella at this stage, right when she replaced in. I didn't have an alternative either. We just got here man.

5. Again, too soon. I think BBT null is reasonable here. Maybe you don't realize how hard BBT is to read and he didn't give much readable content this game.

6/7. With regards to "scum slips", which I was relying on heavily when I started again recently (last time I played was 2014 before a couple months ago), people have pointed out that they "scum slip" more as town than they do as scum. I think Bella here is just referring to the entire set of people playing the game as "town". Probably not an actual scum slip. 321 and 322 are reasonable because both BBT and you have named esires/furtive as the hero solve at that point and a town!Bella would want to dig into that.

All in all I wouldn't vote Bella based on your case.

That said, I have some other points which I'm considering in a scum!Bella case that maybe you can comment on:

76 - (Bulba) I don't believe this coming from him. Also, esires wasn't offering themself up to be flipped, they were just ok with being the first wagon, which isn't necessarily a flip. Reasoning here feels fabricated.

276 comes across reasonable. BUT I'm having a hard time figuring out which is more likely - scum!Bella not pushing BBT here because peta has already claimed he was going to hammer, or town!Bella just giving real thoughts on BBT. Further, I'm not totally sold on a BBT flip being especially useful for new info but maybe Bella will come up with something.

[Rad]

I promise I'm not interrogating you but talking helps solidify my thoughts.

Nono, don't worry about that. You feel free to ask me any question and I'll do the same. We'll just openly solve this game and make scum feel incredibly uncomfortable lol.

Firstly that Juice is LHF, since we know BBT is town in hindsight scum would know that the true LHF was him, it's possible Juice was as well and I understand your perspective but I'm not sold on this argument. BBT was the lower and hangier fruit IMO.

Fair, BBT is also LHF here, and was also pushed by peta so even easier. If peta pushed my slot, it probably gets flipped instead. The LHF observations were actually made before the BBT flip when I knew my slot's alignment but didn't know BBT's.

Tell me of this corwinoid as a player

Hmm not too much to say. If I notice something that feels off I'll point it out. Bella also has some past experience with him. Not sure who else here does. Corwin has some irl time restraints that seem to come up often that I believe are legit so probably shouldn't hard scum read him on anything regarding that. TBH I don't think I know what town!Corwin looks like!

I'm pretty sure I know but who are your 2 strongest scum reads for the record?

BS2000 read has gone nowhere so still a scum read.

Meg and Bella both questionable. Need more time with Meg cause my read bounces around a lot. I'm very bad at reading Bella historically. I actually went through Bella's 2097 ISO again earlier (my first newbie here where we were both town and I kept scum reading her) and I honestly can't tell why that's town Bella vs the scum Bella I've also read. Very fucking difficult for me to read, similar to BBT.

@Bella - what's your plan as scum in general? For example, my plan is to seem reasonable and non-confrontational and avoid angering the loudest town. Do you have something that you feel differentiates your alignments clearly?

I understand if you don't want to reveal but if you don't mind, would be interesting to hear it!

[Rad]

@ fancy, I have meg as my most certain scum, because in being swayed by furtive - I'm aware I could be being hoodwinked but I felt like he was engaging with me in good faith earlier but without trying to overly appeal to me or pocket me.

Bella this is weird. Your highest scum read is Meg because... Furtive came across as towny while pushing Meg? What does that have to do with Meg being scum? Like even if Furtive is town here, he could be wrong about Meg, so... how does that mean Meg is scum? Am I misunderstanding this post of yours?

[Rad]

3. 147 probably NAI. I'm curious if he's been entertaining the BBT wagon openly before that post though cause that could be telling. 173 I agree and I mentioned before I thought it was weak. It feels like an act. 174 further feels like an act.

I can't find any mention of BBT from Bulba before 147. While town can think things without presenting them in the thread, this is probably >randscum of Bulba.

Between 147 and 173 we have 162 where Bulba does that bs shading of BBT that I mentioned earlier in 441 is different than my own shading of BBT.

So yeah on revisit this point of yours is feeling much more scummy to me.

[Rad]

Which links to the next bit - no, furtive came across as towny while talking to me about themselves. I felt there was enough push back on my slot for him to be solvy, without him being defensive. It has nothing to do with meg at all. Furtive was my highest scum read but now he isn't, so I'm left with meg + the replacements.

Ahhh sorry I see now. In 443 you mention furtive as your highest scum read, and then get convinced of town!furtive, and now you're sitting at meg and esires (+maybe BS2000) as your main scum reads. Got it.

I should've termed this more as a Poe - my scum pool is very mixed with my null pool. I need to go back and read megs day one and an waiting for the replacements before this firms up - I've found it a lot easier to find town today than scum, but my scum reads are more that I don't have compelling reasons to tr them. I'm fairly concerned this isn't right as an end game solve, but I don't think I'm looking outside of the Poe solve of the replacements plus meg today.

Refreshed thoughts on Meg will be much appreciated by all I'm sure.

This recently happened in a town game where I drew a fucking spider graph to explain my thoughts and posted a pic in thread!!

lol link please, sounds hilarious

I've found it a lot easier to find town today than scum, but my scum reads are more that I don't have compelling reasons to tr them.

I don't find this terribly inaccurate. Town reads are just easier this game. I hope Corwin + other replacement becomes active and we can have a coherent game.

Sleep time, night!

[Rad]

I don't really understand what you're saying with the underlined, could you elaborate? Because none of those seem inherently like a reason for a scum push. Maybe I misunderstand you here.

I feel like your case emphasizes a bunch of weak points that are easy for scum to make against town. None of the points you made felt like strong examples that point to a scum!furtive. What you underlined was a list of generic summaries of the points you were making. I feel they're easy to make as scum and come together as a weak case. I couldn't tell if that's because you're scum making a weak case or if they're legit concerns from a town!meg. The problem isn't that you have those concerns, it's that you're pushing them as a convincing argument for why furtive is scum.

[Rad]

Does anybody have a VC? Can I get a current VC?

I'm at the start of D2, and my main thought right now is "furtive, wtf?". Still feeling rad's play is outside his town range.

What a weird thought. How is this game outside my town range? If anything, it's the furthest outside my scum range I've ever played. Like my scum game is absolutely fucked now after this game lol. I hate doing this much analysis as scum. I'd rather sit back and be nice and let everyone else argue.

Can you elaborate on what makes you think this game is outside my town range corwin?

[Rad]

Like my scum range so far has included leaning heavily on pre-replacement reads which are inherently townie, and trying to put out a single thought out case against a town (flower in prev game) which I gave up on after an hour. Scum!rad here is miles better than any previous performance. Town!rad is just doing what town!rad does but with some more experience leading to (hopefully) smarter analysis.

Looking forward to your explanation corwin.

[Rad]

Does anybody have a VC? Can I get a current VC?

I'm at the start of D2, and my main thought right now is "furtive, wtf?". Still feeling rad's play is outside his town range.

What a weird thought. How is this game outside my town range? If anything, it's the furthest outside my scum range I've ever played. Like my scum game is absolutely fucked now after this game lol. I hate doing this much analysis as scum.

What? You literally did this in Newbie 2097. 1278 and 1279 in that game. viewtopic.php?t=89584&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Remember my entry in that game was based on inherently townie reads because I preread the game and had opinions before reading my role. I did that here too as a replacement but have extended analysis far beyond just initial reads.

[Rad]

Does anybody have a VC? Can I get a current VC?

I'm at the start of D2, and my main thought right now is "furtive, wtf?". Still feeling rad's play is outside his town range.

What a weird thought. How is this game outside my town range? If anything, it's the furthest outside my scum range I've ever played. Like my scum game is absolutely fucked now after this game lol. I hate doing this much analysis as scum.

What? You literally did this in Newbie 2097. 1278 and 1279 in that game. viewtopic.php?t=89584&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Oh and that TL case lol, dude had like 14 posts or something? Yeah I didn't have to think too hard on that one. LHF.

Hem case was just my actual pregame thoughts. I honestly thought he was scum pocketing you before I replaced in.

[Rad]

Does anybody have a VC? Can I get a current VC?

I'm at the start of D2, and my main thought right now is "furtive, wtf?". Still feeling rad's play is outside his town range.

What a weird thought. How is this game outside my town range? If anything, it's the furthest outside my scum range I've ever played. Like my scum game is absolutely fucked now after this game lol. I hate doing this much analysis as scum.

What? You literally did this in Newbie 2097. 1278 and 1279 in that game. viewtopic.php?t=89584&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Oh and that TL case lol, dude had like 14 posts or something? Yeah I didn't have to think too hard on that one. LHF.

Hem case was just my actual pregame thoughts. I honestly thought he was scum pocketing you before I replaced in.

You're ignoring my point, which is obviously that you can do 'analysis' as mafia too.

I'm not ignoring your point. I'm not brain dead as scum, of course I can do analysis as scum. I certainly have never shown this level of analysis as scum though either and suggesting I have is just wrong. My scum game isn't built on analysis, it's built on being reasonable and agreeable. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that I'm scum this game but it would be incredibly far outside any range I've shown so far.

Anyway, disagree with me if you want, what do you think about corwin's suggestion that this game is outside my town range?

[Rad]

Being proactively analytical isn't something I've seen from Rad in other games I've played

This is a wild misrep of my town play style and is easily dis-proven with a light skim through the 2097 game we played together in. I can't imagine why either alignment Corwin would be claiming such an easy thing to disprove. Are you misremembering me for someone else Corwin?

[Rad]

Alright so given Corwin's strange entry here, I did a re-read of Esires. Still feeling town to me. Hoping corwin can judge my content here on its own without this weird meta read that my town play doesn't do proactive analysis (I'm baffled on this, corwin).

Also did a re-read of BS2000. Still leaning scum. Doesn't mind voting either BBT or Juice and mentions it multiple times (both LHF here). Also doesn't mind voting furtive or fancy.

Also caught this strange sequence on the re-read. BS2000 claims Furtive is his highest town read here:

FG might be my only strong town read so far. Petapan is looking good too.

And by here they're slightly leaning town:

I would say slightly leaning town. They've gotten a tad more quiet lately.

And by his next post he's leaning scum on him, specifically for a Juice + Furtive pairing:

Furtive....ya know I do get a weird vibe from their iso. Like, and I know some people get really peeved at looking for pairs in D1, but if Juice flipped scum, I feel like FG would be a decent target.

So ok. What was he seeing? Here's Furtive's posts between BS2000's 51 and 152:

Spoiler: Furtive during that time

Still here, I do townread petapan.

Lol a Newbie game with no true newbs in it now.

@Mod can we get a current votecount?

I think we have 3 on Juice and 3 on esires?

Starting to get townvibes from Meg's exchange with FancyPants. Need to see more from Juice/Bulba/BBT. There's scum somewhere in there.

This is the kind of post that I'd probably make as scum, feels a bit safe. Maybe with your partner in the 3 'sus' players but never follow up on it.

After my latest read through I'm struggling to read the situation correctly, kind of scumreading both BS2 and BBT a bit but I feel reluctant to vote. I'm gonna unvote Meg, all is forgiven and they seem fine now.

UNVOTE: MegAzumarill

What are you struggling with specifically?

Differentiating players actually. We haven't posted much collectively.

I'm gonna go for Meg/Peta/Bulba for town, sus on BS and BBT and then the other three aren't so distinctive for me. I suppose Esires is fairly town, Fancypants can go either way. Not much from Juice yet.

I'm most happy voting BBT for now.

VOTE: BBT

I'm most happy voting BBT for now.

VOTE: BBT

1.

that's E-1

, call that out when you're voting so no one accidentally hammers

2. why?

Yeah it's E-2, I don't usually announce E-2. As to the why, just townreading other players. A few other players: You, Meg, Bulba, Esires, and FancyPants. BS200 is seeming more town than BBT right now.

Only 1 mention of Juice in there, where Furtive points out that Juice hasn't said much yet. MAYBE he pulls some weird pairing from 68 but doesn't mention bulba or bbt as possible pairings with furtive, just Juice, so I doubt it's from that post.

Juice has the following posts between those times:

Spoiler: Juice during that time

forgot about this game ooops.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: juice

UNVOTE:
VOTE: petapan OMGUS for the fun of it

No mention of Furtive.

How did BS2000's read on Furtive go from "Strongest town read" to "Maybe paired with Juice" in this sequence?

I get that he's not going to be around to answer this question, which sucks... but this is really sus to me.

I can see him gaining a scum read on Furtive due to OMGUS (furtive points out a scum read on BS2000 during that time) but where's the Juice + Furtive link?

Then again I look at that seemingly random pairing and wonder "is this just town making shit up in their head?" - "would scum be so bold as to start hinting at a pairing when absolutely nothing has happened to support that idea?"

Thoughts on this please! I was leaning hard scum on it due to there being no clear grounds for that thought from BS2000, but would scum really try to pull that off?

[Rad]

I should learn to let the thread breathe, but I can really only dig in this much late night.

I read through Meg's ISO and I'm on the fence. If I had to just choose right now I'd choose scum!Meg, but also wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong. I read through Meg's ISO in the recent scum!Fancy game that was linked as well, and Meg does feel better here than there, but I don't even see how they caught scum!Meg in that game so quickly.

I probably put Meg lower (scummier leaning) than Bella based on Bella's recent content vs Meg's. Bulba's content is still pretty damning though imo, compared to how I saw town!Bulba play in my previous game. It's hard though because Bulba's obvtown only came out when heavily pressured during a time where he figured out the solve. So I'm reluctant to lean heavily on that read.

[Rad]

FTR I wasn't in 2097, I played with you in 2095(? I haven't actually checked) where you spent most of the game sheeping whiskey until we offed him, then sheeping Bella until ELO, where you went hairbrained and got lucky.

Eh we were both wrong, it was 2096. Regardless of the number, that's also a huge misrep of my play.

[Rad]

Roden sus bad entrance
Corwinoid town good entrance

Lol I was thinking the exact opposite

[Rad]

I actually think Bulb was tonally pretty townie from what I've read so far

How much had you read by this point?

[Rad]

Unless people get back on me for some reason, town is going to sleepwalk into a Corwinoid elimination based on Esires' play.

On the contrary, Corwin is killing my Esires town read.

@Bella, any thoughts on Corwin so far? Do you agree/disagree with Furtive's 557?

[Rad]

I trust Rad the most and will probably just sheep them today when they come to a decision.

You can trust I'm town but you probably shouldn't blanket trust my reads over your own. My reads are strongest when scum is interacting directly with my own slot in a way that I know doesn't make sense, or when town defends my slot at a specific time that scum probably wouldn't. Outside that, I find I'm pretty clueless and still trying to learn. Like if Bella is scum here I probably won't catch it. We should just work together to figure out who's scum cause we probably have different strengths and can balance each other out.

Plenty of time left today and we have an active game finally. I'd like to see Meg come in and give some thoughts and see what our replacements have to say over the next couple days.

[Rad]

I don't dislike corwin's entrance today.

If you knew 100% that corwin was wrong in his claims about my town play, and that he was misrepresenting me, does your opinion of his entrance change?

[Rad]

Alright I'm not going to continue this back and forth with corwin. If anyone wants to see him straight lying, take a quick glance through my 2096 ISO. Light shade to sow doubt is an effective scum tool and I'm going to call out bs when I see it, but I'm not going to continue to fill the thread with my response to it.

[Rad]

VOTE: Meg

[Rad]

VOTE: Meg

Why?

Furtive wants to vote Bella or Meg and doesn't want to vote Corwin. I don't mind compromising here.

I doubt this is scum!Bella. The only thing that bothers me is my meta scum read on Bulba, and I do feel like 272's "I'm fine with it" and 490's "I don't think it was a good wagon at the time" are contradictory, even if Bella doesn't think so.

Roden's feeling townie here based on vibes and comparing it to a newbie town game I read of his recently.

Fancy's just locktown for me.

Furtive's probably town, or he's playing a solid scum game.

Meg's content has been thin as others have pointed out and his furtive case felt off. He ends 503 with a suggestion that the way this has played out often means there's a TvT going on (between meg and furtive), but that hasn't affected his stance on wanting to vote furtive out or bothering to openly pressure someone else. I agree with furtive's 595 and was thinking that myself. There's just a lot pointing to scum!Meg that gives me some confidence in a red flip.

My other less developed option here is voting you Corwin, but I'm willing to give you a chance to play the game and give content that's not related to an early read + defense. That's not fair if you're town!Corwin. TBH I think we could probably flip you here fairly easily but I'm not super confident you flip scum, I just can't wrap my head around your claim coming from an honest perspective.

I'm also ok with letting this play out another couple days so we have more content before a flip. I'll take Fancy's opinion very seriously here as well and Meg's defense during a legit wagon could change my mind. Yeah thinking about it more, a Meg wagon makes the most sense here.

[Rad]

Let's go Furtive. All aboard!

[Rad]

@Roden - thoughts on Meg vs Furtive?

[Rad]

For fear I may be conf biasing you here Meg, I'll read over your furtive stuff again trying to not read it from a scum!Meg assumption. I don't really view scum hunting like you're suggesting you do but thinking about it more, it's not a bad approach at all. So the stuff that's coming across to me as "easy to point out as scum" might just be legit town observations. I'll give it another look over tonight. One thing I do have a problem with still though is your read on furtive does not appear to have been affected at all by his day 2 play. If you still think this is a potential TvT you should check your own conf biases.

Interesting Furtive has not joined the wagon after I took him up on his offer, one that could quickly become 3 people if he joined and Fancy sheeped me.

[Rad]

Ok Meg, I've checked out your case again and tried my hardest to drop any conf bias I might have.

This strikes me as an odd way to try and approach this. If you especially since you had already shown concern for the lack of posting trying to move the game forward by posting a serious vote not labelled as such strikes me as counterintuitive.

Yeah ok, I can see what you're saying here. This is actually much more specific and analytical than I initially realized. In 13 he's showing some concern for lack of posting. Then in 27 he's naked voting and 37 he's explaining that naked vote as serious vote and a reaction test. You're saying it's counter-intuitive that he voting seriously in a non-serious way, but I'd say it kinda makes sense anyway with the explanation that it's also a reaction test. Reaction test can move the game forward for sure which furthers town wincon, so I see what you're saying here but I disagree. I'm less convinced it's a easy/scummy thing for you to point out now though, actually it was kinda solvey and not obvious.

This stirs the pot and keeps attention away from furtive, while not prompting any kind of interaction between BS and furtive. It's weak and directionless and doesn't have the intent to decipher alignment.

I still agree with Furtive here. I can see both town and scum furtive saying this. I'd say it as either alignment as well, with different intentions (wanting to see what others thought, or light intentional shade). I don't think you're necessarily wrong when you say "It's weak and directionless and doesn't have the intent to decipher alignment." but I don't think it's necessary for that statement to accomplish that goal in order to be townie. It can further a town wincon by bringing focus on something that others might consider scummy.

The only times furtive has ever prompted a response are entirely defensive. In this post as well as another addressing Rad, the only times furtive has inquired of another, have been in ways so that either are about furtive, or his thoughts. I see no intent in actually solving or trying to determine alignment through any form of inquiry.

Alright let's focus on this one a bit more directly this time. I'll look at the posts before your 376. You're saying that in the posts where he's prompting a response, they fit in one of the following categories:
- defensive posts
- posts about furtive or his thoughts

Ok so let's see if he's made any posts before 376 that I'd consider pushing people to produce content that can help determine alignment and don't fit into the above categories:

Spoiler:

9 - no
13 - no
22 - no
24 - no
27 - no (might push forward but is just sharing his thought w/ the vote)
29 - YES (prompts Meg about Fancy)
33 - no
37 - no
41 - maybe (reasonable question to ask peta, not defensive necessarily)
47 - YES (prompts peta about Meg)
67 - no
68 - no
115 - no
116 - no
118 - no
119 - no
138 - no
143 - no
189 - no
203 - no
214 - no
231 - no
232 - no
233 - no
245 - no
249 - no
262 - no
266 - no (defensive)
310 - no
311 - maybe (open question to all)
312 - no
316 - no
317 - no
318 - no
320 - no
323 - no
325 - no
326 - no
329 - maybe (open question to all regarding Juice's rep out post)
330 - no
331 - no (his partner case)
332 - no
333 - no
335 - no
338 - no
339 - no
345 - no (NOTE: I forgot how bad his partner case was, and this comment is just terrible)
346 - no
348 - no
351 - no
352 - no
356 - no
361 - no
373 - no
374 - no
375 - no

So out of 56 posts, we have 2 YESes and 3 MAYBEs

Yeah you got a point there Meg. I was curious so I checked his 2097 town game viewtopic.php?f=11&t=89584&user_select[]=36433 and found the following YESes:

Spoiler:

16
104
108
132
135
186
190 (rhetorical question, so just a "maybe", but also funny here, he points out that asking questions isn't morally wrong and it's what we all signed up for and claim to enjoy)
250

Ok so here we've got 7 or 8 YESes within 56 posts. I dunno what to think about it though. It's not really that drastic a difference. Bigger take away for me is I get the impression he cared more in the 2097 game than he seems to here. Could be a scum tell, could be town who doesn't really care and the play reflects it. I mean he does claim he doesn't care in 232...

I would have to agree that at least in those first 56 posts in this game, he is not actively trying to get alignment indicative content out of people outside of defensive reactions. I didn't look beyond 375 for this post since it was a response to your case. Regardless of what it means w/ regards to his alignment, your point here is very accurate.

Once again, even when pushing a scumread instead of putting an argument together instead furtiveglance lashes himself onto an observation. They don't put together cases that could be analysed or scumreads that can be challenged. They work in vague weak arguments while being concerned about their own slot more than the game around them.

Well, he did put together that partner case! Mostly he just mentions what alignment he's leaning for people but doesn't often give sufficient evidence as to why. The post you quoted 262 is a good example. He barely mentions BBT before voting him and pushing me to vote for him.

Overall furtiveglance's play day 1 has read as both overinformed through lack of inquisition, and unreasoned, through lack of evidence. It reads like scum making filler to not go over the edge for lurking and looking just invested enough to get by.

Yeah I can see why you were thinking this now.

So conclusion for me here is I don't hate your furtive case anymore. I think it shows you're paying attention to the game way more than I thought you were and you make some solid points. I'm still a little worried about why you haven't adjusted your read at all given his d2 play.

UNVOTE:

That said, this revisit of your case didn't convince me of scum!Furtive either so my vote won't be going there.

[Rad]

@furtive

I voted Meg here: 596

11 hours later you posted 620 and 621

8 hours after those I posted 629 questioning why you haven't voted Meg yet.

But I haven't really been on that much since he voted Meg, it seems unreasonable to expect me to follow immediately.

I don't think this is me being unreasonable or even me questioning why you didn't follow "immediately." There's lots of time in there and there's no reason to believe you didn't see my vote when you posted 620 and 621. You make it sound like I dropped the vote and an hour later I'm pointing at you screaming scum for not following.

[Rad]

Let's look at Peta's ISO w/ regards to openly stated reads. I'll mark when I think he's giving a clear scum or town read on someone. If you see something I got wrong please point it out.

30: - Esires (legit according to 62)
34: - Juice
35: + Meg
40: +? Bulba or joke
46: + Esires
48: + Meg + Furtive
96: + Meg + Furtive + Fancy + Esires + Bulba
113: - BS2000
132: -? Bulba or might just be correcting his logic
133: - BS2000 (need to check when this post aligns with Furtive's similar post about BS2000's 66)
145: -/+ Juice (150 and 151 negates it)
165: + Juice
166: - Fancy
168/169/175: - Fancy
197: + Meg, -? Esires, + Bulba + BS2000
207: - Esires (ish, as an intentional bbt counter wagon)
208: + BS2000 + Bulba
220: +? Juice (tone reads as such)
221: - Fancy - Esires
223: - Furtive (lands on null in 224)
234: + Juice
252: - Esires - Fancy
263: specifies null BS2000

So I'm not going to tally stuff up, I don't think it's that simple, but looking at it I get the following final read from Peta (ignoring BBT here):

Town

:

Juice (Me, I get it, how convenient)
Meg
Bulba (Bella)

Null

:

BS2000 (Roden)
Furtive

Scum

:

Fancy
Esires (Corwin)

Some opinionated take aways I'll make here:

Bulba

and

Esires

are opposite of my d1 thoughts. w/ regards to Bulba, it might be a meta miss read on my part because he's really not under pressure here, which is where my most recent meta read comes from, but he has the demonstrable lie at 76. My town read on Esires was based on him not pushing the LHF Juice slot but that could have just been a coincidence.

Fancy

and

Furtive

absolutely belong there-ish from d1. Both Fancy and Furtive come alive in d2. I gain a strong meta based town read from Fancy at that point but I ended d1 with Fancy at null and can see why peta would end with a scum read. Furtive landing at null matches my initial read.

Meg

I also came away with a town read early on.

BS2000

I had as scum read earlier but peta seems to lean heavier on the town side than scum side when reading this slot even if he ends it at null.

He seems pretty sold on town!

Juice

, let's be honest.

All that said, d1 reads aren't definitive but we've had no further data to go on besides more d1 type posting. There was the wagon on town!BBT and no one has drawn any convincing conclusions about it. Peta died cause of course town!Peta died here.

--------------------

Let's quickly look at BBT:

100: - BS2000
192: - Meg - Esires
193: - Esires
222: (+ BS2000 + Fancy + Bulba) (- Juice (ordered scummiest) - Furtive - Meg (least scummy))
300: Hero solve Esires / Furtive
302: + Fancy

Again my opinionated take away (though a little more obvious here, and ignoring Peta):

Town

:

BS2000 (Roden)
Fancy
Bulba (Bella)

Scum

:

Meg
Juice (Me)
Furtive
Esires (Corwin)

BBT is very clear with his reads here.

BBT had at least a similar previous experience with

Bulba

as I did cause we were scum team vs Bulba, and saw what town!Bulba is like, and he's reading him town here, so I feel even more comfortable with me getting it wrong after rereading his ISO.

Something changes for

BS2000

though he didn't really note it so not sure where to go with that.

Hero solve read on

Furtive

is interesting but I think he's probably wrong.

I dunno why he got a town read from

Fancy

in d1 but I bet he'd have maintained it d2. I'll be curious if he can answer that after this game for me cause d1 fancy wasn't obvtown yet.

Hard to blame anyone for reading

Juice

scum here.

His

Meg

read I remember added to my conf bias. That and furtive's read which I tended to agree with.

Easy landing here with it matching my recent concerns:

VOTE: Corwin

Time's up. Fight your way out of it if you're town. If you think this is a scum push, case me. If you think I'm town, case someone else. Let's see it.

[Rad]

This is the deadest game...

Fancy out almost 2 days
Roden at a day and a half
Corwin almost at a day and a half
Meg coming up on a day

With that level of activity, everyone needs to vote when the reenter the thread or we're just going to run out of time. There are currently no viable wagons.

@mod please prod Fancy and Roden, Corwin almost at 36 hours too

[Rad]

and humaneatingmonkey

lol thanks HEM

[Rad]

Ahaha, feeling conflicted is about where I am. I really want more from fancy - his case was almost laughably bad and I can't help thinking it was pulled out of nothing and then he's kinda been absent, but then the question is 'why'. Interesting that rad read the slot as null day one, I had then as my strongest town. I also think it's weird that they totally abandoned their 'hero solve'.

I'm starting to worry that my scum read of meg is stylistic.

I'm back to being confused by furtive. Their start of day was bizzare, but then through convo I felt they were responding to me like they were solving, but their scum read of me again feels strange and like they are painting my actions in a perceived worst light, which was very similar to my issue with their big analysis post. So does the push on rad .

The replacements both game in a little shaky, did think Roden was townier than corwin, but the content has dropped off from both.

@furtive, why are you tr-ing corwin?
@rad, talk to me more about fancy's dya one.

I've seen town!Fancy go hardcore and then dip out and do nothing for a few days before. In our previous game, he's also claimed that he tends to repp out as scum cause he's not interested in playing that alignment. He likes mafia cause he likes to solve and doesn't get much from being scum. A scum!Fancy here just played his best scum game for a short burst, gaining locktowns from multiple people, and then got bored.

Day 1 is what I'd expect of a scum fancy. Low effort, low analysis - the opposite of what town!Fancy is when he's trying. He votes Juice, which is reasonable coming from town!Fancy since this isn't Juice's obvious town game either, but also the easiest vote for a scum!Fancy. 154's questions feel boring and obvious. All in all day 1 just didn't feel like town!Fancy to me but neither did the second half of the previous game I was in, so I was kinda ehhhh on the slot until day 2.

I'll have to reread his ISO I guess and either re-locktown him based on day 2 play or recognize where my read went wrong.

[Rad]

@rad, also I'm sure we aren't allowed trust tells, and that sure looks like one. What game were you in together?

I don't think it counts as a trust tell though? Been a while since I read that rule but I remember it having to do with guaranteeing an alignment based on some action. This is more a strong meta read based on some things Fancy said in our previous game where he was town so I trust them. There's nothing guaranteeing town or scum Fancy here. Even if he repped out here, it's not a guaranteed scum tell, he could still be town and have some other reason he left the game. Also again, I've seen town!Fancy go hardcore town!Fancy mode and back way off like it's a different person playing.

Game where I'm pulling my Fancy meta from is my scum game vs him 2099 viewtopic.php?f=11&t=89776

[Rad]

@Bella ahh there it is, in newbie 2099 post 313 his answer to "What's your effectiveness as scum?" if you want to take a look. I dunno if this counts as a "trust tell" or not but it's unavoidably shaped part of my opinion of what scum!Fancy might look like regardless. His general play in that game forms my opinion of what I expect out of both an engaged town!Fancy and a town!Fancy that lacks time.

[Rad]

I do get the hesitance to scrutinize town read players though, since it's a shitty feeling to attack a super townie player out of paranoia only to then find out they really were just town

Eh, top read town players can easily be scum, hell I was top town read for a while in 2099 as scum. Just get your thoughts out for everyone to parse, even if it's just attacking me if you feel I'm scum. I feel like the only reason town feels at a disadvantage here is due to lack of activity throughout the game. Maybe there's scum in the active players looking more towny than the inactive players. Maybe scum is just the inactive players. That's the problem with inactivity, it always looks scummier being inactive because you're more unknown.

[Rad]

I do think you fit the bill Rad, there's just nothing I can point to in particular in your ISO.

Also Furtive I don't really see it as some kind of revelation or anything to that effect, more so I'm just wondering how many of us are on the same page here. I'm seeing most of the attention on Meg/Corwin/Bella, with not much pursuit towards Fancy/Rad. Granted, Fancy just isn't here, but when he was generally seen as townie.

Ok, so I'm curious then, how often have you found scum when you couldn't point to exactly why they're scum? How confident are you I'm scum? Why is it unlikely that scum is in Meg/Corwin/Bella exactly?

[Rad]

Thanks HEM. I was looking at the rules and didn't want to push this idea too hard, but I didn't see anything specific about this.

Let me just say to Roden - You can check newbie 2099 posts 1700 through 1703 and draw your own conclusions.

[Rad]

Lol, Rad had a BBT scum game and I haven't read it yet? It's definitely going in the pile now.

He was a blast to scum it up with, yeah?

I <3 BBT but if I'm honest, I had that town pocketed before he repped in and it became much more difficult rofl. I even bused his slot early and didn't care (in hindsight I probably just lose there due to town PRs if the bus went through). Then he started attacking me and I had no clue what to do about it XD So I ignored talking to him most of the game and he called me out for it and it was even worse for me. Still, I'll point to him for the win cause I was ready to tap out at multiple points and he hung in there and made it work.

[Rad]

I'll claim intent to hammer but it's not looking like he's going to show up to PR claim or defend himself. Almost 3 days away from the game.

This was a really easy game for Fancy to not get flipped in regardless of alignment. With 2 people hard reading him as town all he had to do was keep up minimal activity. He claimed in 2099 to have never been flipped as town before. I guess signs are pointing to scum here and my meta read was off. Tbh I was a little excited to maybe have town!Fancy in this game with me cause he was so scary in 2099 and that was going to be fun, so maybe I forced that read to happen.

Any thoughts from Meg or Furtive on this wagon before we end it?

pedit - hey furtive... ok but what are you suggesting we do instead? We're running out of time today. I doubt we can get a fancy replacement in time to help with the slot read. You're not getting your Bella or Meg wagons here. Got an alternative you wanna push?

[Rad]

I guess we could wait for a replacement to at least come and potentially PR claim. It'll slow down the game more and cause further apathy though... I find it hard to believe a PR town!Fancy has neglected this game this hardcore though

[Rad]

Roden and Corwin - thoughts on hammering without a claim vs waiting for replacement here?

[Rad]

That's cool furtive. I'd hate it anyway if we collaborated and compromised on a different wagon than your Bella tunnel wagon. You do you. How very towny of you to "keep pushing and voting my actual scumreads" that haven't changed in a week. Remember it has to be Rad Meg Bella cause that sick pairing case you made was air tight.

[Rad]

Nero why did you decide to read Bulba/Bella ISOs instead of just reading through the game? Is that common for you when you replace in? I have a hard time beliving you have a strong grasp of that slot just from the ISOs and not having a grasp of the rest of the game that went along with them.

[Rad]

some games I do ISO's and some games I read the full game. It just depends how I feel.

Alright so you noticed sus pushing from Bella/Roden and decided to ISO Bella and concluded yep, scum. Seems a bit susceptible to conf bias if you're town. And then you just point to Roden for other scum even without an ISO of him or BS2000 (prev owner).

I kinda worry here because you coming in at this later stage and just reading through 1 slot and concluding scum is kinda easy for either scum who doesn't care who they target (or targets who their teammate suggested) or town who has very little attachment to the game, so fuck it if you're wrong.

Like if you're town here, I'd appreciate it if you contributed more before we flip someone here. Furtive's not going to vote your slot, I'm willing to hold off and give you time to catch up, can't speak for Meg... just saying I get it if you don't want to put in a bunch of effort just to get hammered here but maybe do it anyway?

[Rad]

Like maybe you're town and experienced enough as town to just pick out a scum ezpz like that, but I'm not experienced enough to know you're not scum. Some further explanation of why you think Bella and Roden are scum would be helpful for me to sort YOUR slot as well as theirs. I've been all over the place on your slot this game from null day 1 to locktown to ready to hammer, so you coming in and just giving some very light thoughts on Bella slot and voting doesn't feel great to me. The last thing that would be useful here is you just live 1v1ing vs Roden while voting Bella for a few "this looks scummy" quotes. There's 30 pages to pull from.

[Rad]

Yeah I totally get you're not invested in this game, you really shouldn't be yet... I wouldn't be if I were you. And the threat of someone just hammering you right now is probably even more of a reason to not get invested. I'm ok with you putting some pressure on the slot. I just don't think you've pointed out anything special that makes the slot scum.

I read the Bulba/Bella and BS2000/Roden slots scum earlier. I'd be pretty happy if I was just right on that call from the jump. But my opinions changed since Bella and Roden came in.

I'm happy to talk for the next couple hours. This is my deep dive time and there's nothing to deep dive atm

[Rad]

I think Roden's case on me is bull and 734 did make me think Roden/Bella a little.

VOTE: roden

Little bold for scum!Roden to say that about his scum partner Bella don't you think?

[Rad]

What do you think of Rodens case on my slot?

Him pointing out the 180 fancy did on my slot? It's not a bad observation but it misses the fact that me, fancy, and juice were all in a game together right before this one where I was scum and Juice/Fancy were town. Juice played this game completely different so I'd expect any alignment fancy to push my slot as scum when Juice was here. But then I repped in and I can see a town!Fancy reading me hard town here due to significant differences in play. Fancy's also coming out of last game with a town loss where his reads were all sorts of wrong so he's not confident here. So makes sense that if he has a strong town read on me he'd be open to sheeping me.

So the 180 makes sense from a meta perspective but not outside that. I can see why Roden would be sus of the slot.

[Rad]

Roden, do you think Bella's town or you're just more convinced Furtive is scum than Bella?

[Rad]

like ok, theoretically I'm scum. I just don't hard claim pr for ??? reason At best I keep living and if not I potentially out a town pr and help out my scum buddy. If you are town then you really are not thinking this through.

Ehhh does a scum in your position claim PR here?

Your only real worry here is Meg coming in and flipping you. You're not actually all that in danger besides that. Furtive hard reads you town and I had fancy locktowned for a bit. Scum!Nero claiming PR doesn't make much sense here in this game state does it?

That said, scum!Nero claiming VT should have been a no-brainer and scum!Nero's partner should know that. So this just feels like town giving the middle finger at the thought of claiming on repp in. Is a good scum move to come in and NOT claim anything? I find that hard to believe. scum!Nero's partner knows I don't want to vote fancy slot here so the only wild card is Meg, so why not play it safer?

[Rad]

yeah yeah

[Rad]

Lol a Newbie game with no true newbs in it now.

Right BS2000 wtf? This shit's just confusing now.

Alright.

BS made a post saying something along the lines of 'A newbie game with no newbies in' and this came across to me like scum complaining that they have no newbies and as such are at a disadvantage.

Oh fuck BBT caught us flip him quick

[Rad]

I guess it's not impossible that Frut hard town reads a slot that was prob gonna be flipped and he knew was flipping town but I also don't think its impossible that he just has a good read.

Furtive has hard town read the fancy slot as long as I have, way before the slot was at risk of getting flipped. He even announced that he would never vote your slot this game, so even harder town read than I had.

meg had a chance to hammer me and didn't. I don't think she would have gotten any flak for so it seems kinda +town.

I guess it's not impossible that Frut hard town reads a slot that was prob gonna be flipped and he knew was flipping town but I also don't think its impossible that he just has a good read.

I sorta feel like you are just ok with hammering me but I'm willing to trust Fancy that you were town and even if you were scum there'd still HAVE to be scum on my wagon but I sorta just think they are already just sitting on me.

What are your reads rn?

My reads are absolutely broken right now.

Furtive I have as my highest town read due to effort and openness to interact. I have some hesitations on the slot though.

Fancy I was locktown and then he disappeared for 3 days which fits his scum meta so now I'm ?????? - Nero's entry here is kinda unreadable to me so far aside from some possibly wrong reads on the lack of claim. Like maybe this should move down to right above Roden or something.

Meg I'm leaning town based on some heavy analysis of her furtive case which I originally thought was terrible but revisited it and thought it was actually pretty insightful

Bella I'm leaning town but I'm also bad at reading Bella historically (as both Bella alignments). It's probably the slot that I'm least confident about due to my past bad reads on Bella's play.

Roden feels pretty towny based on a meta dive i did on him not too long ago, and I don't think he's terribly wrong in what he's calling out vs Nero. BS2000 I had a scum read on.

Corwin just straight objectively misrepped me and I have problems with it. But I was reading the slot town when it was Esires so I'm conflicted.

If I was day vig I probably shoot BS2000 early game and if I held off I shoot Corwin.

[Rad]

What even is 772? Seriously, did you even put thought into this? "X doesn't make sense as scum" or "X only makes sense as town" is *exactly* the kind of thing scum should be looking to do, especially when dropped into facing elim.

scum!Nero repping it at -1 can literally do anything, things town!nNero would do and even wouldn't do... if scum then fliping off town as a desperation move makes total sense, if it doesn't work he just walks into the probably elim anyway; if it does he sets up a potential cc later by soft claiming. Seriously, you just leveled yourself here. WIFOM so hard you drugged the cups yourself with something you aren't immune to.

Also, why claim intent to literally just walk it back like "lol, yeah, I'm not actually going to hammer." With almost nothing in between to indicate you're walking back on the wagon? This entire sequence doesn't make sense.

Nothing Nero's done since he joined has done anything to make that slot look more favorable to me, if anything it's just soured me even more.

I'm just thinking out loud man. I don't claim to be good at figuring this shit out. You pushing me so hard on it though feels good that my vote is still on you.

Literally any alignment player can do anything and we have to determine which we think is the most likely. Like that's the entire game here. I spelled it out from different angles and I certainly might be wrong, but I'm willing to throw my thoughts out there.

I was ready to hammer the slot but wanted to talk it out first, and then we got a replacement, so why the fuck would I hammer without letting that play out?

[Rad]

Yes, because pushing you on bad logic is so scum, right? Instead of letting you do the dumb openly I'm going to call you out on it so you logic a little better when I'm playing against you. Makes perfect sense for scum!Corwin to help you out.

I believe in my logic. Maybe it's right, maybe it's wrong. You calling it dumb is anti-town. If you think I'm scum for the "bad logic" please push that. Otherwise you're just TMI claiming I'm town with bag logic, which is also a great reason to keep my vote on you.

[Rad]

you and furtive have all of the opacity of saran wrap

This is kinda cute and I feel would be hard to pull out of my ass and feel comfortable saying as scum lol

bad logic though right?

[Rad]

lol dude is calling me town b/c he knows me flip makes him look bad.

I'm actually confused again lol.

I thought the "all the opacity as saran wrap" meant you were clearly scum.

But he thinks you're probably town? 30 seconds later?

[Rad]

Corwin is it your meta to be this fucking angry as town? Cause you've been this angry with me multiple times this game. Can you point to a town game or two where you display this level of anger? I don't remember you being THIS angry as scum even when you were legit angry at me in that first newbie game of mine. (2097 or whatever)

[Rad]

Corwin is it your meta to be this fucking angry as town? Cause you've been this angry with me multiple times this game. Can you point to a town game or two where you display this level of anger? I don't remember you being THIS angry as scum even when you were legit angry at me in that first newbie game of mine. (2097 or whatever)

You know that noticing this anger should probably be a sign to dial it back a notch, right?
Right?

You must not know what I look like when I'm not dialing it back a notch lol

This is me dialing it back and trying to connect with a potential town!Corwin

[Rad]

I don't really understand why he'd be so angry

frustrated with town!me

He didn't list me in the potential scum pairings immediately after

[Rad]

I don't really understand why he'd be so angry

frustrated with town!me

He didn't list me in the potential scum pairings immediately after

like he was thinking I was scum before and realized I'm town and is now just super frustrated with me, which is probably townie of him to do

[Rad]

UNVOTE:

let's chat corwin, we got a day left

[Rad]

TBF, I think cor did want you to hammer me, Rad

How often in your experience has scum who wanted something that was so close get openly angry in the thread when it didn't happen?

[Rad]

Meg you still around? Stop lurking and give some legit input please. Some opinions would be great.

[Rad]

I've had a bad week, and I have to work most of the day tomorrow too. I should have been asleep like two hours ago... Rad I'll be on tomorrow evening,

about

10 hours before deadline if you want to talk then. I might have a few chances to post mid day, but it's unlikely if I ever want to see home again this weekend.

All good man, you give your input when you can and get some sleep now instead. Put the phone down cause fuck this game. I know you have legit time restrictions. We're good here. Nero can do some more reading or something. If we're on at the same time we can do some back and forth but right now is my time to be active so might not happen.

This game will go to today's limit. It's fine. Lots happened tonight so we can try to come to a consensus vote 12 hours from now. And we should get some Bella input too which will help.

[Rad]

Meg you still around? Stop lurking and give some legit input please. Some opinions would be great.

I mean I don't feel like my opinion on any slot has changed significantly in the past few pages.
I'm still leaning town here on Nero/Fancy although I don't agree with some of Nero's sentiments at this point. It's fallen somewhat. I kind of like the corwinold slot more after your interactions with them.
My preferred lim is still furtive. I'll swing to one of the other wagons by deadline but haven't made up my mind yet.

Ok let's get some commitments then?

You want Furtive.

If not furtive, which wagons are you comfortable with if we have to last minute vote one?

[Rad]

And we should get some Bella input too which will help

Also furtive input for that matter.

[Rad]

I slept in. Have my own reasons on top ofrodents, but was leaning this way anyway.

unless you want to argue that this is scum blatantly sheeping his buddy

Is there anybody in this game you haven't shit on in three pages except the person who's essentially buddy claimed you?

yeah, I'm shitting on people. I called out some questionable posting from Bellas slot and called Roden scummy for som shit logic and think that you are scummy. Thats just scumhunting, nothing more nothing less. This post does nothing but try to demonize me.

And yet it's all just sowing discord instead of making serious attempts to solve or progress. At least the scum pools are completely bifurcated now, but you and furtive have all of the opacity of saran wrap.

I'm gonna have to read the corwin/rad thing back. I think Nero was partly right, I think corwin was expecting rad to hammer (ngl me too a bit) but they doesn't seem to be what the issue is?? Nerod posting is a bit ??? - I don't think it's gonna radically change anyone's opinion of the slot.

P-edit a bunch of posts I haven't parsed

I reeeeally didn't want to hammer fancy. I wanted him to come back and participate. I was really excited to maybe be in a town!fancy game after being scum with him seeing how solvey and persistent he can be, he'd really compliment my play here. He also disappeared for a bit in our previous game but came back so I was hopeful.

[Rad]

I mean, prob not? Roden is stuck in a tunnel and can't get out. And everyone else seems kinda status quo I guess.

can't wait to here whats been ????

Ehhh biggest tunnel in this game is Furtive tunneling Bella. Might want to consider that one.

[Rad]

I mean, prob not? Roden is stuck in a tunnel and can't get out. And everyone else seems kinda status quo I guess.

can't wait to here whats been ????

Ehhh biggest tunnel in this game is Furtive tunneling Bella. Might want to consider that one.

I think you missed the point guy. Bella was saying that my posting prob won't change anything and I was agreeing. Deadline is getting closeish so I mean there absolutely time to get a better wagon if we wanted but Roden's going to continue to tunnel and Meg said she'd hammer so I might just be a deadline casualty.

Nah I get your point. Just throwing out the idea of furtive tunneling bella so maybe you shift your focus there for a bit. Like if you're town, you're heavily experienced and I want you to give some legit feedback on potential scum rather than just chat with us in real time when there's so much content to consider (like furtive's tunnel on bella).

[Rad]

Agree with Meg about the roden obsessed thing. What are you talking about furtive? How are you possibly coming to that conclusion? Spell it out with some quotes please.

[Rad]

We have 17 hours and I'm down to not wanting to vote meg, rad and Roden mostly because they are the people who are making the most sense.

I sincerely believe this is not how town thinks. 'Making sense' is not inherently town, that's surely the first fallacy they teach in mafia class.

So 2 things on this. First, you're right that "making sense" isn't inherently town. In fact as scum I try to be as openly reasonable and clear as possible. But the reason I do that goes to the second point here - town does tend to consider other people being reasonable as being towny. The idea that Bella's town reading slots that she finds to be making the most sense I'd say is more >randtown of a perspective.

You could argue that Bella's too experienced to be convinced by something so simple to do as scum, and I have no opinion from that perspective. But a town!Bella here would have a bunch of people yelling different things about different people, not all of it super clear and reasonable, and clinging onto the people who are "making the most sense" might not be a terrible approach.

[Rad]

That said, I think this from Nero is pretty accurate about Bella's play here.

Your posts this morning haven't contributed to the thread in any meaningful way. You didn't react to my light scum red on you, or back up your statement that my posting was ??? or really give any thoughts at all.

I'm gonna have to read the corwin/rad thing back.

did you ever do this? You don't seem like you've commented on anything or done anything substantial since I replaced in.

I think you are just scum waiting out the deadline.

I'm not seeing Bella push the game in any sort of direction that helps solve. Doesn't mean Bella's scum but that's what scum!Bella should probably do here. Sit back and give some light comments and wait out the deadline since I didn't hammer.

[Rad]

@rad my issue with fancy is solve/drive based - he copied bbts hero solve and then opened day 2 not doing much with it, then cased me, then said he was drunk, then dissapeared. He never responded to my ponts about you and the bbt wagon, while implying I was ignoring his answeed questions. Like, where's the follow through.

he copied bbts hero solve

- not necessarily scummy, I want to check his ISO and see if he was leaning towards that solve openly anyway or if it was abrupt

opened day 2 not doing much with it

- maybe scummy, I need to check and verify

then cased me

- not scummy

then said he was drunk

- not scummy

then dissapeared

- maybe scummy, but he disappeared completely and got replaced. Could be legit irl issues.

He never responded to my ponts about you and the bbt wagon

- regarding not sussing me based on my bbt wagon stance? You know we approached it very differently. Not that he can respond to it now but if town!Fancy hard town reads me, he wouldn't care about responding to this anyway.

while implying I was ignoring his answeed questions

- do you remember the post where he does this?

As a summary of why you believe fancy slot is scum, this is pretty much a miss I think, but I'll dig a bit. I get if you're town some of this probably comes across as more scummy than I might recognize.

[Rad]

he copied bbts hero solve

K let's see.

Hero solve is esires/Furtive.

Peace!

Copycat.

^ This is where he supposedly copied the hero solve.

VOTE: Esires

I like this wagon better than BBTs for reasons I’ve gone over.

Esires basically gets PoEd and voted for for seemingly not caring about lunching scum this game.

^ this is before BBT's hero solve

I too sadly haven’t had an awful lot of time for mafia recently. It should get better but not for the next few days.

For now I have caught up.

@Rad, my early comment about them being town was genuine in that I thought those posts from furtive and bs2000 were town aligned. At least making an effort to move the game along.

I don’t think it’s Peta they seem to care about winning the game. I don’t think it’s Rad or Bs2000 for similar seasons.

BBT and azumaril I have tonal town reads on.

That leaves Furtive/Esires and Bellaphant.

I think Bulba was kinda town before he replaced, at least some effort to game solve.

That leaves furtive and Esires.

I’ll happily sheep a wagon on either of those two for today.

^ and actually here he spells out his solve in the underlined text, before BBT's hero solve post

So in fact this is fancy's hero solve that was announced before BBT's

[Rad]

opened day 2 not doing much with it

"It" being the hero solve of furtive/esires. This should be more subjective but let's see.

Still: can you walk me through your read on esires?

Why? You said you don't scumread them either. So neither of us would be trying to convince the other.

Because if you are paired we'd like your opinion for the record.

^ Pushing furtive on the idea that he could be paired with esires and wants furtive's opinion on the slot

Still haven't done my reread but for now I think I was wrong about Furtive scum generally don't make posts like 331 I'm not fully sold but that strikes me as effort scum generally don't bother with.


Rad also has a slightly different tone from when I played with scum-rad, it's subtle but it's there. Rad's a good scum player but this game he's focused on complex post by post analysis.


That leaves Meg/Esires/BS2000/Bellaphant.

Still need to do my reread before voting.

^ Backs off Furtive on a reread. Maintains sus on esires and opens his POE to the Meg/Esires/BS2000/Bellaphant group.

Interesting. Why do you townread meg? I haven't seen anything particularly towny from him.

High level of activity and scumhunting.

@furtiveglance: your top 2 scumreads? Top 2 townreads?

This post kinda pings, at this stage I don't think Meg has done much scum hunting or even activity really, post hoc justification for a town read that he only had from a scum perspective?

^ Here he's doing another reread and runs into something I also pointed out about esires.

For reference at this stagee (10 pages in) I'm at:
Scum in:
Furtive
Esires
Meg


Scum not in:
Bella
BS2000

Juice has said nothing at this stage.

^ Just to note, he's back to reading furtive scum and has backed off Bella and BS2000

You're careful with your wording in this post, little things like this catch my attention. 'Slight' scum read, 'little' sus, softly, softly scum read so as to not draw too much attention. I don't see the wishy-washyness in this post and I don't know why that makes it scummy? Elaborate?

Ultimately it was a slight read that was a little sus. Early read - original post explains my rationale.

Second, this is something scum do a lot. I'm referencing your statement regarding your entrance into the game for clarity; the whole 'Yeah I know my entrance wasn't great but I was so busy and just wanted to contribute something to the game because I'm town. 'Rush' posting implies you didn't think much and so tries to excuse what you yourself consider bad posting.

Welp, it was true.

I do tend to be partial to people with higher activity in a game so I cannot fault you for having that mindset. However, esires, I do see that you did question me on not having any reasoning for a vote. This was page six.

Yeah my problem wasn't that you made an RVS, it was that you tried to justify it with flimsy logic.

peta is squeaking like scum. if they were town, they would of just kept their vote on me,

peta is my most solid townread and this is a pretty crap post from Juice. Still feels more like laziness than scum though.

Can you please explain why you’d be Ok with a BBT lynch?

I thought their post about BS commenting on no newbs was a serious stretch that could either be distancing or just a regular old scum stretch to justify suspicion. And BS's response in post 123 made me feel even more like it was distancing.

Feel better about this now:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BBT

Question for Esires:

Can you elaborate a little bit on BBT and BS and their alleged distancing here?

^ Pushing esires some more

I'll stop here. Bella I don't think this is Fancy backing off in day 2 and not doing anything about furtive/esires. I think it shows he's actively thinking about the game and making it a point to focus on those slots, even jumping around on Furtive. There's pushing on both slots to get more content and openly giving opinions during his reread.

[Rad]

He never responded to my ponts about you and the bbt wagon

I think he made it pretty clear what his issues were w/regards to you and the BBT wagon here:

To clarify - I wouldn't be surprised whatever bbt flips, I have them solidly as null as there isn't much content. If he does flip scum, I think it's safe to say there's a bus , because those votes felt fairly quick as it would be a good lim to gain town cred on.

P-edit, @ meg, does my post not answer? I don't have time to iso dive right now. But I think furtives worst is definitely inorganic.

I thought we had a three days left?

This post kinda sucks.

fwiw i thought on it and the stuff i felt was unaligning for bbt/esires isn't that good so i would retract that, only two players i would say are for sure town if bbt is scum are meg and BS. (and i think he's more likely scum than not and if he's town i'm pissed at him for replacing in and playing this way)

Who's the he here?
@fp, why? Ask me questions about it maybe?

To clarify - I wouldn't be surprised whatever bbt flips, I have them solidly as null as there isn't much content. If he does flip scum, I think it's safe to say there's a bus , because those votes felt fairly quick as it would be a good lim to gain town cred on.

P-edit, @ meg, does my post not answer? I don't have time to iso dive right now. But I think furtives worst is definitely inorganic.

I thought we had a three days left?

It feels like you’re trying to distance yourself from the wagon whatever happens. Giving yourself plausible deniability.

If it’s a town wagon - we’ll you weren’t on it so you’re fine.
If it’s a scum wagon well you weren’t one of the people bussing as you claim is likely.

Feels like a way to weasel your way out of taking a stance or voting BBT.

@Bella - Was there something specific you asked him about me vs you with the BBT wagon that he didn't respond to that you feel is relevant here?

[Rad]

VOTE: Bella

[Rad]

E-1 on Bella yeah? Any intent to hammer? Please announce sooner than later so this can play out properly and we don't rush into this flip due to time.

[Rad]

Meg you hesitant on Bella due to scum reading Furtive?

Who pairs with Furtive here in your opinion?

[Rad]

Meg if furtive is scum, I can see why you'd consider me a possible pairing. Is that your main issue with me right now or do you have a scum read on me outside that?

I don't think furtive/Nero is likely here. Furtive fancy interactions are so on the nose if scum pair, just doesn't feel likely.

Would you consider a corwin vote here? I don't think a furtive wagon would happen here and we need to consolidate soon.

[Rad]

Meg if furtive is scum, I can see why you'd consider me a possible pairing. Is that your main issue with me right now or do you have a scum read on me outside that?

I don't think furtive/Nero is likely here. Furtive fancy interactions are so on the nose if scum pair, just doesn't feel likely.

Would you consider a corwin vote here? I don't think a furtive wagon would happen here and we need to consolidate soon.

You know we don't all need to agree, we just need 4 to agree.....you voted Bella, who cares what Meg thinks? Bizarre post from Rad here.

Yes, I do know how this game works. Thanks though. How about you sit back and let me discuss shit with someone I think is probably town so we can come to a consensus on a wagon to push today?

Bella wagon only flips if Corwin or Roden come in and vote it, and really they should announce intent and wait. We've got less than 10 hours and much of that will be people sleeping. Meg's here now and I want to discuss a corwin wagon with her. Bizarre to work together, I get it.

[Rad]

What if there are e.g. 3 on Bella and 2 on Corwin?

I will hammer either. Problem here is we're very low on time and heading into most people's sleep time. I won't be awake when day ends. Need to figure out which wagon to sit on by tonight 2am my time which is in 6.5 hours or come to a consensus before that where 4 of us agree.

[Rad]

I'll be back in a few hours. Hoping corwin and roden come in to give some input.

[Rad]

What if there are e.g. 3 on Bella and 2 on Corwin?

I will hammer either. Problem here is we're very low on time and heading into most people's sleep time. I won't be awake when day ends. Need to figure out which wagon to sit on by tonight 2am my time which is in 6.5 hours or come to a consensus before that where 4 of us agree.

Mechanically what happens, is it no one dies or Bella?

Was this an actual question? I believe no one dies if we end day at 3-2 without a hammer. Right? I haven't been in that scenario on this site so not 100% sure but I believe that's the case.

[Rad]

I think we're off hours for Bella though, so I'll wait a while before I do it.

When do you plan on going to sleep corwin? I think you're right and it's off hours for Bella. Also Bella said she's sick. I've seen her show up in games in the middle of her night before but might not happen if she's sick.

[Rad]

Ok so little later than I'll be up. So Bella has 4-6 hours to come claim. No claim by then I think you just hammer. Any objection from anyone? Anyone believe we should no lim in that scenario?

Pedit I'm EDT so it's 9:20 pm right now. I'll update my profile later if it's not listed as that.

[Rad]

hmm hmm hmm

[Rad]

Indecision mainly. I can't determine if there's something that makes Bella town here and to Nero's point, she hasn't really done much that clearly pushes town in a solvey direction. I can see scum!Bella playing like she's played this game, and I had a meta scum read on Bulba to begin with. Her summary of why Fancy is scum was pretty bad as well.

Can't decide if corwin's anger yesterday was legit town or scum angry at me for being right for the wrong reasons. Something about his play also doesn't feel like the other times I've witnessed Corwin, which has always been scum. I dunno what town!Corwin looks like. All in all the corwin slot hasn't given me a ton of info to make a solid read on so I hesitate a bit more to flip it. I dunno how town!Corwin concludes that I'm not analytical in my town games but I also don't know why scum!Corwin announces such an easily disprovable lie.

[Rad]

I dunno how town!Corwin concludes that I'm not analytical in my town games but I also don't know why scum!Corwin announces such an easily disprovable lie.

Because I don't go reading your other games.

Play this one, not your other ones.

My

personal

experience with you does not match this game -- perhaps that's a poor reflection of your general play, but I don't understand how you keep misunderstanding this. You have not played like this in other games I've played with you.

You're the one with the meta read on me I find ridiculous. I didn't bring that shit into the game, you did and I defended myself. Even Bella thought it was laughably bad and she's been in the same games with me that you have. I feel I'm doing MORE analysis here due to being more experienced with the game, but it was still my approach in that first newbie game to analyze the shit out of people.

[Rad]

What is it that gave you the town read on me recently Corwin?

[Rad]

mobile quote system is broken

Hammer if you want. I'm wondering if it's better to NL here but maybe Bella's just scum.

[Rad]

I don't think you've been particularly indecisive; you voted Bella, and made it clear that you wouldn't hammer Nero earlier.

What? Indecision between Bella and Corwin. I was responding to this:

While we wait for Bella, can I ask why they were run up before Corwin?

What does that have to do with not hammering Nero?

[Rad]

Or not.

ROFL i said "or not" out loud as I refreshed and there's your post.

[Rad]

All good HEM, sorry to hear!

Furtive's an interesting choice here. I think furtive dying over Nero here is more likely an attempt to implicate Meg rather than Meg killing her biggest threat (you know furtive would likely tunnel meg today).

Also agree with Nero here that it's more likely Roden over Corwin but that's kinda a gut read that I'm not overly confident in. Some conf bias on that is going to kick in for me too cause I'll be pretty happy with myself if I nailed both Bulba/BS2000 on entry

I'll look at Roden's ISO again tonight.

[Rad]

I don't think scum breaks off like that when they have to know bella is going over at that point. Like if corwin is actually town we can lim Roden but right now I don't think we should.

You referring to this?

Won't be hammering Bella btw

VOTE: Furtive

[Rad]

I'll be doing some back reading tonight and I'd like to give corwin a chance to defend himself, but I don't see how it's either Nero or Meg here based on how the wagons played out. So probably just a win to vote out corwin roden in whatever order.

[Rad]

Meg, thoughts on why Furtive died?

[Rad]

I'm thinking more about the mass claim thing. I'm a little concerned that if we don't get claims today, it sets up scum to be able to fake claim tomorrow if we mislim here.

Also claiming today could help narrow down the POE.

The downside of claiming today is scum know better who they should target tonight if we mislim but I feel that's less dangerous than leaving open the ability to fake PR claim strategically tomorrow.

I think we should claim VTs or PR first without revealing which PR and see what people's responses are. Like if we got 3 PR claims we know scum is in that group and we can consider revealing in a specific order. And this forces scum to risk a PR claim without knowing what the actual PR(s) are that they would be trying to fake claim alongside (in the Group C scenario where scum could most easily fake claim if they know the actual PR). Group A and B fake claims probably just get caught where we flip both people if there's a contradiction.

Thoughts? The alternative is we hold off and risk fake claim nonsense in ELO if we mislim here.

[Rad]

Intent to hammer Corwin

[Rad]

Eh, no-ones gonna hammer without a claim. Also, he had time - his case about me was the early hours of Sunday.

P-edit I'm not voting meg. I'd compromise on corwin.

Been going through Bella on and off today and just ran across this one, when the fancy wagon was stalling. Does Bella openly offer to bus there?

[Rad]

Alright corwin, final reads?

[Rad]

VOTE: corwin

[Rad]

I thought furtive was pr breadcrumbing. You did too then?

[Rad]

Oooh meg jk on me last night would explain why I didn't seem to be sus at all today for her, but why wouldn't meg jk furtive instead?

[Rad]

How was I crumbing? Not something I meant to do.

Search your iso for the word guilty.

I thought you saying "I don't" was you breadcrumbing or fake breadcrumbing, which is why I was still sus of you.

[Rad]

Masons!! Holy shit. Roden then.

[Rad]

Literally if you claim mason with roden today I just insta hammer corwin lol

[Rad]

Happy that my Fancy locktown read was accurate. I've never had an easier time reading someone as town and it was only him disappearing that had me questioning myself. 100% meta read but town!Fancy who's into the game just has a certain approach that was so scary to play against in 2099 and I saw enough of a glimpse of it in day 2 to feel pretty confident.

I also don't see how esires was so scummy. I kept coming back to esires feeling towny and bs2000 feeling scummy on my rereads.

Bulba felt nothing like his town play in our previous 2099 game and he had at least 1 straight lie that was sus.

I'd have put money on Juice being town in my pre-read based on his rep out but I also didn't want to lean too heavily on that when I got into the game.

I have the hardest time reading Bella in every single game I've played with her, regardless of her alignment. Even in the reread today trying to find her partner I was like... maaan, how is Bella even scum here. I think it was Nero's 856 and 867 that helped me realize that I should look harder at her ISO.

[Rad]

Since we're on the topic and I'm still technically a newbie, I think the biggest off-putting thing for me w/regards to wanting to stick around and play more is the length of the games. When I'm in a game I want to be super active but when a day is 7+ days long and a night is 2+ long, there's a ton of boring downtime and the game becomes stagnant. I tried to fill that by playing multiple games at once but what happens is activity requirements then spike too high during busy times and still crash into nothing other times. Shorter day and night would emphasize "this is the time to play" I think and make games more active in general because you're committing to a smaller amount of time. You can't expect people to commit to consistent heavy activity for the next month and that's what these day lengths require for the game to be consistently interesting.

Beyond that, I've also never gotten a PR so that's been fairly boring. This newbie setup feels weighted against scum and that makes scum even less interesting to play. 3rd party could also spice things up.

[Rad]

Since we're on the topic and I'm still technically a newbie, I think the biggest off-putting thing for me w/regards to wanting to stick around and play more is the length of the games. When I'm in a game I want to be super active but when a day is 7+ days long and a night is 2+ long, there's a ton of boring downtime and the game becomes stagnant. I tried to fill that by playing multiple games at once but what happens is activity requirements then spike too high during busy times and still crash into nothing other times. Shorter day and night would emphasize "this is the time to play" I think and make games more active in general because you're committing to a smaller amount of time. You can't expect people to commit to consistent heavy activity for the next month and that's what these day lengths require for the game to be consistently interesting.

Beyond that, I've also never gotten a PR so that's been fairly boring. This newbie setup feels weighted against scum and that makes scum even less interesting to play. 3rd party could also spice things up.

i hate to even say this because it increases the likelihood you'll flee us at the first available opportunity but the phase lengths here are abnormal to most other forums - probably a byproduct of the site's age and the mentality of doing things like we always have. for me personally i greatly prefer it - as an adult with a day job, the daily time commitment expected in most places is unrealistic and insane. here i can check in once a day for an hour or two which is a reasonable time investment (of course i'm slacking off to post during the day now, but no matter). i recognize though that ain't for everyone and the way people use the internet now is vastly different from how it was even 10 years ago


it's historically been very hard to get games with shorter deadlines to fill here and when they do people often slack off abnormally hard in them (somehow they post less frequently than in a normal length game) so i don't anticipate site meta shifting to accommodate that. there was an attempt at a blitz queue several years ago but it got killed off pretty quickly.

Yeah I hear ya peta. It's just much easier to commit to a week of doing only mafia at night than a whole month (or more for large!). Maybe if I was more restrictive with when I let myself play and was able to not have it in the back of my mind all day I would like the length better and I like this community so was just looking for a way to make it work.