Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[Icy]

Did one complete read through and hope to do another tonight, or tomorrow.

Yes I am the BP, and yes I think that removes some of the fun of playing the game!

[Icy]

As a result, I am indeed holding you to a different stance than I am holding myself to--from you, I expect explanations; from me, explanations aren't expected until an appropriate time (potentially as late as postgame, even!).

This implied that you, at the very least, are considering witholding explanations indefinitely, and maybe even as late as postgame.

Did it now?
"An appropriate time" is an admittedly ambiguous phrase--but inherent in it is "a time will come when it will happen...just, at the RIGHT time". That means it'll happen definitely. That means it is a thing which will occur. 100% it will be given, inherent in the phrase.
This was further emphasized by the parenthesis--"potentially as late as postgame" implies there's the POTENTIAL for it to be that late...with the implication that

most likely

, it's going to come before then.

FWIW, I don't care if your explanations are slightly delayed. It's not quite the middle of D1 yet, so RL/health/etc issues happen and i don't have an issue with it, provided that it's coming soon.

Actually it is the middle of D1. Past it by now. The game started on Tuesday last week. Deadlines are two weeks, so we are past the half-way mark.

But yes, it'll be soon. I wanted it to be today, but I couldn't quite get my shit together (which I am constantly telling myself I need to do), so I'll have to delay at least one more day (hopefully no more).

As an IC, you're a player first, and a teacher second. So no, I don't think you're within your rights to withold explantions or lean on "I'm the IC, I don't have to explain myself" as an excuse.

You have it backwards: the reason I'm not required to explain myself isn't because I'm an IC, but because I'm a player. (And as a player I have a natural inclination from holding back regardless of alignment.) It's simply that AS the IC, I AM expected to explain myself...eventually. At some undefined point. Potentially as late as postgame.

This is just a bad case of stall. It seems clear to me that you don't want to give your explanations, you answered posts for 1 hour and 45 minutes.

[Icy]

We need EC's and maybe an IC is helpful, but they need to encourage the newbies to play rather than monopolize the game.

That's a fair point.

I'll sit back a bit to "make room" for the newbies to get their feet wet.

You're already playing this game from the back of the room, how much farther can you "sit back"?

[Icy]

We need EC's and maybe an IC is helpful, but they need to encourage the newbies to play rather than monopolize the game.

That's a fair point.

I'll sit back a bit to "make room" for the newbies to get their feet wet.

You're already playing this game from the back of the room, how much farther can you "sit back"?

My activity dwarfs that of pretty much everybody else in this game.

If you're going to poke the bear, you better have something better than that pathetic stick.

Activity/post count has little to do with game play.

[Icy]

This is just a bad case of stall. It seems clear to me that you don't want to give your explanations, you answered posts for 1 hour and 45 minutes.

General note, and this is to all players, not just you:
NEVER accuse a player of lying about real life. (You never know when you might one day have a player accuse YOU of lying about something you know is true and just imagine how that'll make you feel if it does happen--and realize that's why you just fucking don't.)

Nobody lies about their real life.
So when I say I couldn't get my shit together (a very personal thing)...I mean I couldn't get my shit together.
Not a lie, not an exaggeration. Lying about real-life is unethical. It is frankly the most sack-of-shit thing a person is technically allowed to do.
To be blunt I'd rather abuse my role as the IC, I'd rather lie about game theory, than I would lie about real life. And I consider those things sacred! That's just to give you an idea of just how fucking much I mean it when I say:

don't. do. this

. Ever.
Real life is sacred to mafia players. You don't lie about real life, and in return you also don't

accuse

people of lying about real life.

In this case: I want to give the explanations, I just am having difficulty doing so.
The answering of posts is actually a minimum time requirement--it is me barely coasting by. It takes me that long just to fucking coast by. To actually give the game the content it deserves requires me to invest the two hours you mention PLUS the 3+ hours or so for the project. The reason I need to answer posts is also self-evident enough: if I worked on the explanation at the expense of being caught up on the thread, I would fall behind and be unable to be up-to-date on the gamestate, something which I consider crucial to the role of a player.

My first priority is staying up to date with the game.
My second priority is the explanation I have promised--it takes a back seat to maintaining my first priority.

I'm sorry if I came across like I thought you were lying about RLI. I didn't mean to. Point of the matter is you are not playing against robots. We all have RLI, most of us just choose not to bring them to the game, and I'm not going to back down from the fact that Scum could use RLI as a place to hide.

[Icy]

Right, so beginning my explanation.
The first thing you should know is a little quirk in my RVS reads--while

normally

, I read things post-by-post, sometimes, especially in the case of the RVS, I cheat: I read the entire page before commenting on the page. This is the secret sauce behind a large section of my reads. So while I'll quote the FIRST post that a player makes during the RVS, that post is not necessarily the foundation upon which I build their alignment.

In particular: When it came to RC, I knew that regardless of his alignment, he was going to type 6 no matter what. There might've been a difference between wording, but the general RVS vote was going to be formatted basically that way no matter what. I felt that if there was an alignment it was more likely to be town than not--this is true enough, but that's a big "if". (And coming from me, the girl who reads a lot into RVS votes, that should tell you quite a lot in how little I valued it.)

However

, largely (ironically enough) thanks to mhsmith, I became aware of RC's reasoning behind 12. I also liked on the same subject 23. While it is true that RC as scum would probably make the same argument (I maintain that the BP claim is neither harmful nor helpful to either side), the way that RadiantCowbells went about his stance felt incredibly town. Additionally, his post 10, where he explained the history behind his RVS, also felt immensely town--while his INITIAL RVS would be almost identical regardless of alignment, his followthrough posting would be different.

And the way he went about it, the wording he chose, the order of his posting, and his focus, it all felt town. The reason I labeled him with "Town?" rather than "town.", though, is because I am admittedly not intimately familiar with RadiantCowbells's scumgame. While I don't

think

his approach came from scum, I lacked the knowledge to for sure say someone of his caliber absolutely couldn't be scum with that entrance.

Thanks for finally posting thoughts on your reads. At this point I'll just say I disagree with them.

[Icy]

My list at this point

Mhsmith
Dogwatch
Oldwino

RC
Pieg
Darklyn

Grey
Mastina

[Icy]

Why is Mhsmith your biggest town read?

I think he has been helpful thus far to town, and I see the Smith/grey thing as a chest beating contest, or a town vs scum thing.

[Icy]

basis for your tr on wino? can't say i'm a fan of the slot rn

If he's being honest (and I have no reason to believe he isn't) about this being his second game, he's playing town about the way I would expect him to. Bear in mind it's only my third game.
I believe it's likely he would have been told, or just would have laid-back more as scum.

[Icy]

[/quote] If you were making a similar list in your previous newbie games on MS around midday d1, where would scum have been?[/quote]

One scum, three null, or town reads.

[Icy]

Smith: I can't take credit for this observation, but pieg brought up something that caught my eye. Smith's 195 seems like a perspective slip, as if he KNOWS Grey is town and wants to subtly hint that their argument was town vs town all along.

I guess I see how you could read it that way, but I don't read it that way at all.

[Icy]

One scum, three null, or town reads.

Please flesh out your thoughts on RC/pieg/dark when you get a chance then. Unless you'd have been generally town-reading the scum, in which case please flesh out your thoughts on me, dogwatch, and oldwino.

Well I'm not townreading Mastina, or Grey so,

RC- Generally agreed with what he had to say when I first read the game through, but sense then he backed off.

Pieg- He is moving up sense I posted the list. I liked the Alt answer from Mastina's question, thought maybe he would ignore it.

Dark- Still not enough to work with from him.

[Icy]

Grey, you posted this a while back:

I'm nurturing a theory that scum is laying low while town gets tied up in NAI quarreling they hope will eventually turn into a mislynch.

I'd prefer to avoid that scenario.

While, yes, it's important to sort players while they're playing and available to be sorted, I don't want to get too heavily invested in any reads until everyone has either established their presence or been replaced by a more active player.

Based on the current game state, this post just seems to be a (post count post)

[Icy]

I'm not going to back down from the fact that Scum could use RLI as a place to hide.

Could...but don't.
They just don't.
Like I said. It violates mafia ethics. Personally, I'd argue it's against the spirit of a universal site rule even:

Do not bring outside influences into the game

...And lying about real-life is bringing an outside influence into the game.

Mentioning

your real life is not a violation of the rule--it is a common courtesy in fact. It is volunteering private information about yourself to be posted on a public forum filled with strangers, where you willingly disclose aspects of your life to explain why you are not going to be able to do something:
Not going to be able to be around (V/LA),
Not going to be able to play (replacing out),
...And also, not going to be able to deliver something at a specific time.
LYING about your real life to gain an advantage? That is a violation, maybe not of the letter of the rule but of the intent. It spits in the face of everyone who is honest and truthful about their lives for someone to lie--so we simply don't. And that's why we also don't make the accusation that someone has lied. They do not.

If you see someone say something about their real-life...in mafia terms, you treat it as true. You will not find a player lying about real-life. It's simply unethical and immoral. Mafia is a game of deception and lies, yes--but some lies cross a line. Some things you just don't say, and lying about real life to gain an advantage is one of them.

I'd say RLI are an "outside Influence", but I guess it could be spun either way.

In either case, I appreciate you keeping up with the game, but

You have broken down page 1, this post is on page 22. If we are lucky you will find the time to break down page 2 before end of day 1. How can you sit back and still say (oh I'm going to catch-up) Am I supposed to view that as TOWN HELPFUL? Do you want me to go back and count how many times you have said "something came up, maybe tomorrow"

[Icy]

I think he has been helpful thus far to town

Define "helpful to the town".
Define also why helpful to the town translates to alignment.
Define ALSO which posts give the above two definitions.

These questions really bug me.

Are you really more interested in improving my game than you are in sorting out players?

[Icy]

@ Icy - even though I've voted Mastina and think I have provided plenty of logic, I totally believe her RL situation and reasons for delaying more substantive responses. I think you should back off for a while. If you weren't the confirmed BP, I'd think your 'attacks' on Mastina were extremely scummy.

No problem, Ill be happy to back off completely.

I also believe her RLI are real, and I guess the way I post makes it seem to everyone that I don't. I think I just dislike her play style. I'm really torn with how to play this game, normally I wouldn't play much at all Day 1. Personally don't care for day one, but this game is truly weird for me.

Got to say, had I read the game before and knew JDW had claimed BP I would not have oped in. Anyway I'm here now and plan to do with it what I can.

[Icy]

These questions really bug me.

Are you really more interested in improving my game than you are in sorting out players?

Presume for the sake of the argument that her primary interest here is in fact improving your game as opposed to sorting out other players or pretending to sort out other players. What does that make you think about her alignment and why? Note that this is also a "improving your game" type question, but at the same time is potentially game-relevant wrt HER alignment (obviously I'm presuming you're town here since you're like 95% odds town given your claim).

I think she is acting scummy. Obviously scum know everyone, they can only pretend to be interested in sorting. I think her early call on Dog, and OW was opportunistic, maybe looking to get one to slip up overacting to her claim. I didn't like her saying she thought two people who hadn't posted yet were likely town. It all tastes bad to me.

[Icy]

Now, here's a game-relevant challenge for people: what do I think of mastina? Why do you think I think it?

Yea, I kind of get it that you think my read is wrong, but I have no idea why.

[Icy]

Hey PP

Thanks for the cake

[Icy]

You're making a strange implication here. I've seen plenty of games where scum

avoided suspicion all game

...

I've read a bunch of games here, and have never read such a game.

[Icy]

Hello Lemon

[Icy]

As far as mine goes, it's mostly apathetic.

Being bitched at for posting too much by one player and not saying enough by another has given me a pretty much idgaf attitude right now.

What exactly am I supposed to do with this post. I have no idea if you are being serious, or this is some kind of sarcasm I don't understand.

[Icy]

I've seen plenty of such games.

Also Darklyn is a scumfuck

RC: I was reading this slot as leaning town before the player change. Am I reading the slot wrong , or is it the player/style you have the problem with?

[Icy]

VOTE: -Grey- stop being a baby

Cba: can't be asked

Most likely to least likely scum imo, might change when I do re-read
mhsmith0 > Radiant Cowbells > Dogwatch > lemonater > oldwino > mastina > Grey

Darllyn, I'm starting to have a problem with you. You vote Grey, his only posts sense are some back and forth with Smith, after which he brings you to L-1....you claim.... and then post that he is your most likely town !!!

[Icy]

2) Who would reasonably fit as her buddy? I don't think I ever really got the sense that the board was nervous about her being a potential wagon (need to verify this but that's my thought on the gamestate), which means that I'd consider it unlikely that she'd have a newbie partner (unless this was all a really weird and really specific strategy), I've already talked about why i don't think it's grey, and that would leave an RC-mastina pairing, which while I guess conceptually possible (RC going after mastina and then backing off would be like an inverse of open 635 when Ranger went after RC and then backed off), is the sort of super-specific thing that I wouldn't want to go nuts worrying about at this point of the game.


So I'm not going to hard town clear her or the like, but I'm having a hard time making any of it really fit under a "she's scum" model, so she's probably just town instead.

On day one you look for/at teamates. Is it a common way to help sort out scum that early in the game?

[Icy]

Cba to wait for intent, worried oldwino might quickhammer
claiming Tracker

I don't understand why you would risk claiming at this point, or why you singled out OW as the quickhammer scare?

[Icy]

Ok, so unless something changes from Mastina, Darklyn is cleared. In that case I would like to see todays lynch come from his train.

RC
Lemon
Smith
Grey

[Icy]

I see what looks to me like opportunistic play, not that I know what your usual play style is (because I don't), but when I iso you if feels to me like your not really trying to sort players out.

Do you disagree with me that there is likely a scum on that train?

[Icy]

You're still calling me Scum and have yet to tell us why.

VOTE: Icy

So let's dance. Why am I Scum?

And by the way, who is this US you speak of?

[Icy]

KINDA disconnected.....holly shit

You did sign up to play, maybe you could put in the effort to at least skim the thread a little!!!

[Icy]

First off I'm calling Shenanigans

You did sign up to play, maybe you could put in the effort to at least skim the thread a little!!!

Alright. I'll skim the thread a little.

I'll need a little direction in order to justify the time spent, however.

Let's play a game. Let's say I get lynched today and flip town, and the tracker... Darklyn? I think Darklyn... gets NK'ed tonight.

Who is scum?

I'll start my ISO review there.

You want direction...answer this question

Do you disagree with me that there is likely a scum on that train?

If you agree with me, start your iso with those three, and if you disagree start with the other three. I await your findings.

[Icy]

Check the post that started all of this 678.

Why do I feel like you are just screwing with me?

[Icy]

I think he has been helpful thus far to town

Define "helpful to the town". Define also why helpful to the town translates to alignment. Define ALSO which posts give the above two definitions.

Are you really more interested in improving my game than you are in sorting out players?

The two are not mutually exclusive. Rather the opposite, they are mutually inclusive. Though I wasn't asking this as a teacher at all. It's nice and good and all that you think I was looking for a lesson--but I wasn't. I was demanding as a player that you be held accountable for your statements. Being confirmed town does not give you a pass to say whatever the fuck you want; you

are

still accountable for your content, and this is me explicitly calling you out on yours.

Maybe a confirmed townee doesn't get a free pass, but I think it gives them a bunch of latitude to do and say thinks that they normally wouldn't. You want me to be accountable for my statements the same as I want you to be accountable for yours.

[Icy]

You want the mafia to be engaged and trying to influence the lynch, because that is (generally) how you catch them. You want the town (ESPECIALLY non-clears) to be engaged and trying to influence the lynch, because that is (generally) how you find them.

Ironically enough, this is one of the reasons I scumread mhsmith. His lesson here IS accurate--but the thing is, he has been one of the players I have most strongly seen NOT influencing the lynch. (The other being oldwino.)

RC was trying to, earlygame at least.

Grey has been doing so throughout the game.

I have also been pushing pretty hard for a lynch in my own way. (My style mostly involves getting people to see scum through a combination of MY perspective and working with THEIR perspective and fusing the two which is why I focus so heavily on getting people to read my posts and form conclusions from them.)
Ulti's slot may not have--but Ulti's slot also hasn't given content and to influence or not influence the lynch you first have to have content/posts.
DogWatch and Darklyn I admit you could make a case either way for.

But mhsmith has one of the highest post counts this game...yet he has deliberately avoided trying to influence the lynch.
Similarly so for oldwino. While he's cast a vote, he's done everything in his power to avoid committing to the lynch.

I really don't see Greys bouncing his vote around as influencing the lynch. Is there something else I'm missing?

[Icy]

Grey, the only way that pushing the BP claim at this juncture makes even the slightest bit of sense is if you're claiming jailkeeper (in which case he MIGHT be lying) or cop (in which case you probably should have claimed a while ago, and certainly should have CC'd the tracker claim since you'd have both scum outed at this point). You disliking his push on you is a terrible reason to vote someone who's essentially a mechanical clear, and I feel like you'd know this if you were town. What gives?

This is also a bad post because it should be obvious to any veteran (and maybe even a newbie) EXACTLY what Grey is doing. I'd explain now, but there's the chance I'd ruin what Grey is going for by doing so, so.

Really.....then I guess you missed the post

right after

where Grey claims to not know the slot claimed BP.

[Icy]

Maybe a confirmed townee doesn't get a free pass, but I think it gives them a bunch of latitude to do and say thinks that they normally wouldn't. You want me to be accountable for my statements the same as I want you to be accountable for yours.

Yes! And I am more than happy to provide explanations! Well, now I am anyway. The point of holding back passed a week ago. Me not giving proper explanations since then has been real-life suck rather than intentional, so literally ask away; I'd answer!

And I expect the same! So again. Define "helpful to the town". Define also why helpful to the town translates to alignment. Define ALSO which posts give the above two definitions.

Helpful to town: Entering into a disagreement with another player and after the fact coming out and saying "i think they are town"
Not jumping on trains.
Not posting to look active
Personally I think vote jumping looks opportunistic

Scum want to look helpful to town, maybe more so than townees, so it doesn't translate to alignment.

Personally I think Smith has done more to help you, than hurt. While you have been coming after him, he has pretty much set back and defended you.

Town Helpful

You pointed out Smiths vote on Dark, I didn't like the vote either, yet you seem fine with the fact that Grey followed Smith.

Not Town Helpful

[Icy]

Smiths going to have to "shot himself in the foot " for me to vote there today

[Icy]

shoot himself

[Icy]

Wow, can't believe your still with us Dark. Maybe they took a shot at me!

[Icy]

Welcome to the game Alisae

[Icy]

Got to disagree Dark, I don't believe Mastina was lynchable.

I was the only one pressuring Grey, but never vote there.

PS...I think Grey will be the sixth replacement.

[Icy]

Alright this is textbook scum!Grey sheep me guys I didn't read the rest of the game besides Grey's ISO at all.
VOTE: Grey
For my next magic trick, I will make Grey's scumbuddy bus him because that's the best way to play mafia. In all seriousness I can explain a bit more in-depth when I get home.

Sorry but you're wrong. For my next truck, I'm going to disappear.

replace out

I was already townreading Grey, albeit with a promise to mhsmith to review the slot, but this makes me firmly feel my townread was in fact justified. I don't see Grey doing this as scum; I DO see Grey doing this as town.

You really need to help with this "Grey is town stuff", because I don't see it at all.

[Icy]

Even if Alisae was scum and their buddy was away surely they would have read through the thread before picking a kill? Them hitting the bulletproof would be an incredible coincidence, far more likely Icy was targeted on purpose.

Not to mention, if that was the case it's likely PP would have filled him in a little. So yah I agree

[Icy]

@Alisae, I think the scum is in the newbie slots anyway

I have

mostly

reached this conclusion, but not all the way.

You are confirmed town for your claim.
Icy is confirmed town for Icy's claim.
I know that I am town.
I am very heavily townreading the Grey slot.
We also know that mhsmith was town.

The only possible non-newbie scum is the RadiantCowbells slot.
The only possible newbie scum are oldwino, lemonator, and DogWatch.
If you suppose the townslip from DogWatch is genuine (it's not impossible for DogWatch to fake, but incredibly unlikely unless RadiantCowbells in the pregame gave that instruction/advice to DogWatch since I don't see an all-newbie scumteam thinking of the slip and I would be

incredibly

impressed by DogWatch generating it on her own), then that leaves three slots for potential scum:
Alisae (SE), oldwino, and lemonator.

I feel we should lynch within there today. I think an Alisae townflip would firmly clear DogWatch, leaving the only possible scumteam as oldwino/lemonator. An Alisae scum flip is a little harder to determine, but...well. Lynching scum would be lynching scum, so obviously that would be something we'd want.

In fact, if you are willing to:
-Trust that I am town, and:
-Trust that Grey is town, then...
...I think this game is an auto-win with an Alisae lynch.

Alisae lynched, flips town:

1. DogWatch is confirmed as town.
   
2. Alisae is cleared via death.
   
3. Darklyn is town via claim.
   
4. Icy is town via claim.
   
5. POE indicates oldwino and lemonator are the scumteam.

Alisae lynched, flips scum:

1. DogWatch, oldwino, and lemonator are possible scum.
   
2. We have one mislynch.
   
3. We have three scumspects.
   
4. We can mislynch one time, and because there are only two possible scum after a mislynch, we win.

In fact, I think the above still works with an oldwino/lemonator lynch, so long as Alisae is lynched tomorrow, because if oldwino/lemonator are both town, Alisae/DogWatch are scum (thus, lynch Alisae tomorrow); if one of them is scum, then the other scum is either the other of them or is Alisae (thus, lynch Alisae tomorrow).

We want to avoid:
-Mislynching Grey,
-Mislynching the PRs,
-or ideally mislynching myself. (I probably need to step up my game and convince you I am town because the game is on a lockdown town win if I'm not mislynched.)
-Mislynching BOTH of oldwino/lemonator, leaving us endgamed by an Alisae/DogWatch scumteam.
-Mislynching one of oldwino/lemonator, then mislynching DogWatch, to be endgamed by an Alisae/other of the pair scumteam.
-Mislynching BOTH of Alisae/DogWatch, to be endgamed by an oldwino/lemonator scumteam.

So either today, or tomorrow, Alisae should be lynched. I did promise mhsmith I would review his notes if nothing else, and I have the outcome of the night to take into consideration, but for the time being:
VOTE: Alisae.

I really do think my effort today is best spent on convincing you NOT to lynch me and convincing you NOT to lynch Grey, because if I accomplish that, then you should be able to follow the above and understand where I am coming from in this.

You said (quite emphatically) Day 1 that RC was town, now we have a player change and they are scum....same slot, different day.

[Icy]

I'm getting a really bad feeling about DogWatch

[Icy]

@ Icy, I think you are right on. You probably got targeted because your scum list is accurate, and last I read it, you suspected Grey, RC (Alisae), and Lemon. Where are you now on Mastina?

I don't like her play AT ALL

[Icy]

You really need to help with this "Grey is town stuff", because I don't see it at all.

Quick question: have you played with Grey?
(I have, but your answer makes a difference in how I answer this.)

No, and I don't think I have even read a game he played.

[Icy]

So vote Alisae lol

I tracked mastina and she didn't go anyway

You do understand that this is meaningless...Right

[Icy]

Icy, follow my lead and vote Alisae pls

We have two weeks......Do you have any idea how scummy it is to push a lynch this early.

[Icy]

Makes it pretty unlikely she is scum, so not meaningless

Okay, so you don't understand. If her partner took the shot Mastina would not have moved.

[Icy]

You said (quite emphatically) Day 1 that RC was town, now we have a player change and they are scum....same slot, different day.

You know what also happened on Day 1? We lynched mhsmith.

You know what also happened on Day 1?
mhsmith flipped town.

You know what also happened on Day 1?
mhsmith (until he was already lynched at which point it was too late) was my strongest scumread.

What did you expect me to do after my strongest scumread flipped town?
Do nothing? Charge right in and not challenge prior assumptions of mine?

Fuck no.

My read on RadiantCowbells on D1 was more-town-than-not, and he was among my stronger townreads. He was not my strongest townread, mind you, but yes it is undeniable he was a reasonably strong townread. He was not a townread I placed absolute faith in. I never said it was impossible RadiantCowbells was scum. Quite the opposite: I said rather consistently, "I strongly think RC is probably town" (early to mid game), and then, later in the day, "I still think RadiantCowbells is more likely town than not" (a weakened read from strong-town, but still town). Never ONCE did I declare that he was lock-town. Never ONCE did I declare he was definitely town, that he was firmly town. I quite specifically acknowledged he COULD be scum.

62, townreading, unspecified strength. 70, "strongly lean". (LEAN.) 235, "do not view as scum". 246, town-quarreling, unspecified strength. 389, stance of him as town, unspecified strength. 475, explanation of read and telling you exactly why I said "town?", not "town.". 725, I demanded an answer from RadiantCowbells in who he townread. 728, I point out a plausible reason/strategy for RadiantCowbells being scum. (Admittedly relying on me being scum but that's beside the point.) 729, "still likely town". (LIKELY.) 731, "don't think scum".

That was rather consistently my stance.

I have reevaluated it off of new evidence I have been given.

I am not calling Alisae confirmed scum at this point. Quite the opposite, I noted why it is very possible that Alisae is town. (Specifically, thinking it slightly unlikely RadiantCowbells replaces out as scum thanks to disinterest.) However, there is reason for the slot to be scum: process of elimination is rather strong with both a tracker and a BP claim, furthered by mhsmith's death. If you're within the conftown, you only need TWO locktown reads to win the game; if you're outside of the conftown, you only need ONE locktown read to win the game. (Assuming like I do that you clear DogWatch if there is not a veteran mafiate.)

Grey is my locktown read. I am still reading, to determine if Alisae is in fact the player with the highest probability of being scum. Maybe it turns out Alisae isn't. Maybe I conclude later we have the newbie-scumteam of oldwino-lemonator. Fuck, however unlikely it would theoretically be possible I reverse my stance on Grey and turn him into a scumread with Alisae instead as my locktown.

But it should be absolutely NO surprise to you that I am reevaluating a read after my prior read was proven wrong. Did you honestly expect anything else?

I'm glad your reevaluating, but you left off 255. That to me seemed like a hard town read. Was I reading that wrong?

Well you ought to start giving damns because the next step is for me to lynch you.

And I should be quaking in my boots about this, why?

I already think my wagon has two scum on it.

Why would I fear your L-1 vote? Because of the risk of a newbie derphammering?

Go on. Vote me. I literally give zero fucks about your stance on me. You are wrong. I don't care that you're wrong. You're not going to lynch me.

What's with the cheap townread you gave me?

It aint cheap, it's accurate. You are town. I am reading you as town. You don't like that, tough. I don't care. Because you are town, and I am town, and that's all that matters to me. I don't care about your opinion of me townreading you.

and given how hard I fooled you and others in TTH's game I would expect you to give my scumgame a little more respect.

Given how I wasn't playing that game: not really, no. I respect your scumgame about as much as I respect that of any other established veteran: it exists. It is something that is respectable. It may even be a don corelone nomination. It is not impenetrable, nor is it impossible to discern from a towngame. You are not special. You are just another player to me. Nothing less, sure, but also nothing more. And this game, you are town. It's really that simple.

[Icy]

I am troubled buy these posts from RC right after Grey hammered Smith.

Grey is scum.

Not quire sure who his partner is though.

I am thinking Mastina/Grey right now too so at least we're actually on the same page.

This is not a spite scumread. I have thought you were some form of scum since the literal beginning of the game.

And for the record I'm still reading OldWino town, and leaning Lemon town.

[Icy]

Consider this:

It could be that Dark is still around because the scum team felt pretty strongly that he wouldn't track the right person. That to me points to someone universally town read. I also think there is a chance that they shot at me to get the town to think I was on the right track (I think OW mentioned that)

If both of these are true that points the finger at RC/Dog in my mind.

[Icy]

It wasn't so much what he said, it's more so when he said it. He showed no interest in wanting to lynch Grey till after he voted Smith, and Grey hammered.

[Icy]

VOTE: lemonater

- scummy slot (ulti)
- 948 feels fake
- mastina's latest walls have swayed me in believing it's likely alisae/lemonater

If you believe that scum team then why not vote with Dark/Mastina?

[Icy]

you left off 255. That to me seemed like a hard town read. Was I reading that wrong?

Twice-over, actually.
One, I had stated I had two scumreads outside of RadiantCowbells--POE would therefore suggest all players not being scumread (including RadiantCowbells) would therefore be town. This is a POE assumption which falls apart if those scumreads cease being scumreads.

Two, even ignoring that, I specified I was reading him as town. This was true. I did not specify by how much. I thought he was town, yes. I had a townread on him, yes. But it was explicitly "I am reading you as town". An unspecified strength read. If I am hard-townreading a player, I will specify I am hard-townreading a player. I am often fond of exact wording. (Quirk of autism, quirk of being a writer, you decide. But I like to be exact in my language as often as possible, such that it is done mostly subconsciously.) I never once said I was hard-townreading RadiantCowbells, because I never was. He was a townread. He was at the beginning of the game my strongest townread, sure, yeah...but explicitly not a

hard

townread. (On a very bad day where I see most of the playerlist as scummy, 'strongest townread' could literally be "51% likely to be town" if literally everyone else is null-or-worse. On no day does "hard-townread" mean anything other than "strongly townread". I could, in a newbie game, potentially get six hard-townreads, and have even the weakest of those hard-townreads still be a strong townread.)

You don't need to respond to this again, because it's largely not helping move the game forward. It's just the raw emotion in post 255 that I read as more genuine than most of your other posts.

[Icy]

@ PP or IC

Isn't there some kind of 'penalty' for replacing out? I think I read that somewhere but can't find it again. Like a 48 hour ban from playing a new game, or something like that? All this replacing out is killing this game - and that only increases the likelihood others will replace out.

IMO unless there are significant real life issues, replacing out should carry a heavy penalty, like a month's ban from playing ANY other games. If you have to replace out, replace out of ALL the games in which you are currently playing and suffer a month's ban from joining any new games.

I think this is something left for post game discussion, but I do understand it's frustrating.

[Icy]

If you believe that scum team then why not vote with Dark/Mastina?

Slightly more confident in the lemon slot being scum than alisae.

There's also something to be said for the ulti/pieg/lemon slot being replaced AGAIN.

I agree it doesn't look good, but I see Pieg sticking with the slot if it was Scum.

It seems to me that the town learns so much more from a Alisae flip than a Lemon flip.

[Icy]

Let me know if you disagree with this.

If Alisae is town, all of RC's and Alisae's leads become genuine

Dog and lemon are more likely town
Mastina and Grey are more likely scum

[Icy]

I'd be 90% sure of Alisae/RC's leads if the slot flips town. At least we'd trust those leads to be town motivated, so we'd know they believe them.

That's a lot of good info, but I'd hate to mislynch Alisae to learn that.

How are you feeling about Grey?

I'd like to see his replacement's interactions with Alisae, Mastina, and Lemon's replacement before lynching, since we have time.

Sometimes you have to "take one for the team". If she is town she still wins when we win.

Still a good spot to lynch, it just doesn't seem like we learn as much from Greys lynch, either way we still need to keep it a two horse race (Grey/RC,Alisae) we don't need to muddy the waters with a third option

We do have time, but any IC/SE replacing Greys slot is just going to push a Alisae lynch. I mean why wouldn't they?....Right

Color changed as it was too similar to my color

-PenguinMod

[Icy]

Welcome to the game TB

[Icy]

alright, i'll switch it... i do think we learn more from an alisae flip

VOTE: alisae

I know you earlier posted RG was town because of post 12. When, or what caused you to switch your read on this slot?

[Icy]

I've tried to figure out the logic of how many mislynches, or no lynches, we can afford and still possibly win. But this is the first time I've tried to figure this out and I haven't seen any explanations of it anywhere else. SO, anyone and everyone, please comment on this logic. This is all predicated on Dark, Icy, and me being town, which from my POV is the only way I can look at it now, even though I mostly trust Dog to be town and know some of you don't trust me and scum will want to discredit me if this logic is correct.

D2 we lynch Alisae (or anyone, I think) who flips town. 7 left, 5 and 2.
N2 scum kills Dark (or Icy, doesn't matter). 6 left, 4 and 2

D3 if we mislynch, no matter whom, Grey most likely will be the vote, and he flips town, 5 will be left, 3 T and 2S. Game over because
N3 scum kills any other townie and there are only 4 left, 2T and 2S and no way for town to lynch on D4 so game over after the D3 mislynch.

BUT if we follow this scenario and instead of lynching anyone on D3, with 6 left, and vote NO LYNCH, which the 4 remaining townies can do, then we are still at 4 and 2 going into N4.
N4 scum kills a townie, 5 left, 3T and 2S.

On D5 we still have a chance to lynch scum and win. Right?

If so, if my logic is correct, I say we lynch Alisae today (or anyone except Icy, Dark, or me, really) and then vote No Lynch on D3. All 4 townies vote No Lynch, the two scum are exposed. Of course, I think, one scum could vote NL and one townie would be left not voting along with the other scum and we're guessing on D5, but isn't that better than two mislynches? Or is my logic wrong?

Of course if we are right about Alisae, we're in better shape. And if Icy didn't lose her BP on N1, we're in better shape. And if Dark tracks the scum killer and doesn't get killed himself N2, we're in better shape.

What do you all think?

WOE.....You say you think the scum team is Allisae/TB, but in your only d2 scenario the person we lynch is TOWN!!! I don't for one minute believe Alisae and TB are both scum.
It also bothers me a LOT that you are worried about our best course of action on day 3.

[Icy]

I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?

I'll give you my case on her. She replaced RC. If you read nightfall you will see she is doing what RC said he would do today. I don't think the scum team is Mastina/Grey. On day one however I did believe one or the other was. It also seems the town has the most to learn from a Alisae lynch.

[Icy]

Welcome to the game Chris.

What do you think of Greys pre-night game. He posted that he didn't want to vote a veteran, but voted Smith without hesitation.

What about RC's post claim of Grey being scum?

Any thoughts on why Dark is still alive?

[Icy]

Your game play is questionable. but your excuses are worse

VOTE: Mastina

[Icy]

I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?

I'll give you my case on her. She replaced RC. If you read nightfall you will see she is doing what RC said he would do today. I don't think the scum team is Mastina/Grey. On day one however I did believe one or the other was. It also seems the town has the most to learn from a Alisae lynch.

@ Icy - So you think we should lynch Alisae, but haven't voted her yet. Why not? I think I know, but would like to hear it from you.

I intentionally did not answer this question. While you were waiting to hear from the two replacement players I was waiting on Mastinas interaction with them.
She said when I asked her about her change of heart on RC (RC was town), (Alisae Scum) that she needed to reevaluate her game while all the time seemingly unwilling to reevaluate Greys position. (Grey is town)

I'd like to give TB a few days (real time) to speak up, establish himself, and maybe redeem the slot from maybe just poor play, rather than scummy play, from Grey.

For what it's worth, if ThinkBig

doesn't

deliver a metric fuckton of good content relatively soon,

I

will be lynching him.

The slot is what matters not the player in it!!!

A couple of other things bother me, over and above my day one suspicions.

1) She has been doing a pretty good job of explaining things, but let the Dark Tracker thing slide by without comment. Had he tracked anyone else you know she would have been all over that.

2) It fits that she would have taken a shot at me, and let Dark live.

[Icy]

let's see a mastina claim before anyone hammers

?????????????????????????????????

[Icy]

Your game play is questionable. but your excuses are worse

That was a sitewide post, and posted word-for-word in two other games. (Go check my sitewide posts if you don't believe me, because it's fucking there and would take you literally ten seconds to verify it wasn't just in here I said that.)

Still think it was a fucking excuse?

Like I said.
Don't. fucking. question. Real. life.

First off I hope your kitty is ok. Now back to the game.

No idea what you are talking about "Statewide post"

Not really sure once again if it's my posting style or you wanting to discredit what I say.
I. believe. you. have. real. life. issues. All humans do.
The problem is you posting consistency. You claim you will do things and then don't.
Today was no time to post, but once at L-1, all of a sudden unlimited time to post. I don't understand.

[Icy]

Did anyone else catch this!

For what it's worth, if ThinkBig

doesn't

deliver a metric fuckton of good content relatively soon,

I

will be lynching him.

Ready for the metric fuckton of good content








wait for it.....

VOTE: Alisae

Ah well, I never did understand the metric system. but I thought a "fuckton" would be more. In any case it was good enough for Mastina.

[Icy]

One more quick thing then I got to go. Mastina, and TB want us to believe the quick train on Mastina is scum.

1st vote Chris (just entered the game) more on him later

2nd vote Me (confirmed town)

3rd vote Dog (locktown? is that what everyone is calling her)

4th vote Alisae (been on Mastina/Grey sense entering the game)

Chris could only hope a train would form when he placed his vote, and they say Alisaes vote was opportunistic. Personally I would have been more concerned if Alisae hadn't moved her vote.

[Icy]

Did anyone else catch this!

For what it's worth, if ThinkBig

doesn't

deliver a metric fuckton of good content relatively soon,

I

will be lynching him.

Ready for the metric fuckton of good content
wait for it.....

VOTE: Alisae

Ah well, I never did understand the metric system. but I thought a "fuckton" would be more. In any case it was good enough for Mastina.

I saw Mastina's promise and have been waiting.
I am expecting Mastina to keep her word and change her vote to TB. It's been a couple of days and he hasn't said anything of substance yet.
@ Mastina, we won't see your vote change to TB as opportunistic. You promised it days ago.

I certainly hope your are not holding your breath while you wait. She might hammer vote him, but other than that I don't see her voting there. He is her strongest town lean.

[Icy]

You assume much. I haven't commented on the tracker thing because there's no need to. Darklyn is both right and wrong. It

does

reduce the chance I am scum. It also does not

eliminate

the chance I am scum. With two scum alive, there's a 50% chance of catching the killer, so there's a 50% chance that a no-track result would indicate a player is town. This result can be used to augment analysis, namely, pairs, and who the likely killer in a given scumteam is:

Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-Grey scumteam?

Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-oldwino scumteam? (The answer is mastina, eliminating this team.)

Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-RC/Alisae scumteam? (The answer is more likely mastina, eliminating this team.)
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-DogWatch scumteam?

Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-lemonator scumteam? (The answer is 100% mastina because lemonator was basically everyone's secondary suspect.)

These are simple things that go without saying. The track results reduce the number of viable scumteams I could be on from five to two. As a result, it reduces the odds I am scum significantly...but also does not eliminate them altogether.

2) It fits that she would have taken a shot at me, and let Dark live.

It doesn't fit because you being shot would fucking increase your confidence. I am RENOWNED for my ability to exploit paranoia and doubt. You living without being shot at would make people think your reads were wrong...and that's especially helpful if "people" also includes YOURSELF.

By shooting at you, I give you confidence that your reads are right.
By shooting at Darklyn, I prevent him from gaining a result which would call his reads into doubt.

Now, if you were a VT, your point would be valid. I can and will shoot the players most suspicious of me when I think they will die. I know town players don't do NKA. The problem is, you're a fucking bulletproof. So by failing to nightkill you, when your slot so helpfully claimed, I am announcing to you that you were onto something.

Ergo, I wouldn't kill you. I'd kill Darklyn. He's the superior kill all-around.

This post is all kinds of wrong. The odds of catching the killer was not 50/50. It would be 50/50 only if Dark knew exactly who the sum team was. His odds for CTK was 1 in 7.

I really love the two in red, on those teams you would have made the decision on who to shoot, but I don't believe for a minute you would have actually taken the shot. You would have had your partner do that.

[Icy]

I understand the way I play the game is different than most, but I trust my reads, and I don't vote all over the place.

On day one I said I would not vote Smith, and on day 2 I'm telling you all I will not vote Chris.(not that he is in any danger of being lynched)

[Icy]

Welcome to the game Blawb.

I guess the good news is, they can't take us both out tonight!

[Icy]

Aside from you making a math error yourself (it's 1/6 thanks to mhsmith's death + your claim narrowing the pool down because he's not going to track himself), you're thinking from the perspective of town, not scum.

The math changes.
From the perspective of town, the odds of catching the killer is 1/6.
From the perspective of the scum, the odds of catching the killer is 50/50.
The scum don't know who Darklyn is going to track. But they have to send

one

of their members to do it. So they have to take an educated guess as to who Darklyn would track.

Hey your right how about that, my math was wrong.

And your right again, my perspective is from town (why do you think that is).

Yet your perspective is from scum (thank you for admitting that). Why is your perspective not from town?

That was the point of my post questioning you saying he had a 50/50 chance. To me your post seemed to say Dark did hit scum, just not the one who took the shot.

[Icy]

Yet your vote is on someone you believe is town?

[Icy]

Ok, so Chris is scum on either of those two teams.
He enters the game and can jump on either Alisae, or you, but instead he goes after Mastina. That makes sense to you, are you kidding me!!!

Put yourself in his shoes, your scum on one of those two teams what would you have done?

[Icy]

it is also a team which if for some insane reason I actually were stupid enough to leave Darklyn alive would be plausible for me to have not been the killer.

This right here is why I think mastina is town. Scum!mastina would never leave conftown!tracker Darklyn alive for another day, even to take a shot at the BP vest.

This makes me think we could possibly be dealing with a scum team of two newbs.

Never is a long time. Using a players Meta (for or against them) seems to me like a slap in the face.

[Icy]

I really don't see a strong case on TB/Grey, can one or all of you state you case, please.

[Icy]

It's also very interesting that Oldwino is basing Mastinas alliance on Thinkbigs flip.

[Icy]

Yeah, scratch that. I'm not moving off DogWatch. Bad vibes on bad vibes.

This seems like a day three conversation to be had, please don't move to TB yet but consider moving off Dog.

[Icy]

I believe TB is likely town, which is why I asked someone to please state the case against him.

[Icy]

Ok, thank you.
I agree with a bunch of what you have to say about Greys game. Can't say as I really remember Grey defending Mastina as much as you do. He actually seemed pretty quiet on that subject. I will however call your attention to this post.

I'd rather save the mastina/Smith dipole for d2, as choosing wrong will cost us a strong town.

It is clear to me that he believed one of those two were scum.


Now I took a fair amount of pokes at Grey on day one, but if you read back I think it is pretty clear to see where I stopped, and I never voted him. Grey voted me, and when questioned by Smith stated he didn't know I was BP, and dropped his vote. Towns job is to try to sort players into to groups, players you can trust and players you can't. Scum (because they already know who everyone is) really only have one job on day one,

FIND PRS

.

Therefore does it seem likely to you that scum Grey had no idea who the BP was?

[Icy]

Yes. Mastina is still my strongest scum read.

No need to go over day 1 again, but on Day 2 Alisae entered the game post 892 to a slot Mastina and I were both town reading. Three hours later Mastina voted Alisae.936

Three....Hours....Into...Day....Two.

Not exactly giving him much time to get established, like she was willing to do with Thinkbig.

Enter Chris who attacks her and now Mastina says the scum team is Alisae and Chris, and there is no way in hell that is the scum team.

[Icy]

You know we don't have to wait until friday

[Icy]

Still staying on DogWatch, sorry guys. We all mostly agree that DW is scummy; the only argument here is that we might be mistaking scuminess for newb-ness. I don't like that argument, because I still think that DW's main focus is appearing town - more so than helping the town. Even newer players would have the tone of wanting to Lynch someone / help the town, but I'm really not seeing that in DW.

Well I'm on the fence myself with dog, but it doesn't really help town for you to be there alone. Who do you think is likely her partner?, and why?

[Icy]

Obviously my preferred lynch today is Mastina. I believe Thinkbig will flip town. Not only that but it's possible Mastina has been lining up his flip for town credit the whole game. Thinkbigs lack of participation is questionable, other than that I just don't see it.

Alisae is town because RC was town.

Chris is town. I don't even remember who was in the slot before Pieg, but he was town, Pieg was town, Lemon was town until he left the game (that was a bit questionable) but his posts read town to me.

That leaves me with a Mastina partner of Dog, or OW.

Either could be her Scum buddy. This is my third game, and the first two were won by scum teams consisting of a newb player who played exactly like Dog has this game. Both got town credit for townslips from the veteran players. Given that, my gut still tells me Dog is town and the other scum is OW. He has been driving the train for TB sense the start of the day. He does post LAMIST often, and (in my view) at least subconsciously hinted both his top reads would flip town. He has also held on to the RC/Grey scum team well past it's expiration. Town OW would not be pushing that scum team.

[Icy]

Do you really think Mastina was in ANY danger of being lynched on day one, because I truly don't.

Who fits as Thinkbigs partner...Mastina??? There is no way she sticks her neck out that far in support of her scum partner. Mastina also told us Lemons exit was scummy (maybe it was) but, eight people left this game, one was scummy? If that isn't opportunistic I don't know what is.

Last night was a critical point for TB. I expected Chris could have moved his vote and Mastina would hammer. I actually expected the game to be in night phase when I logged on this morning. Town Mastina has sure been quiet while one of her strongest town leads walks the Mafia green mile.

She still wants us to believe the scum team is Alisae/Chris. Look back in the game. RC voted Dark 465. Pieg voted Dark (who Mastina pointed out was a alt vet) 491. Those two votes sat side by side till Dark claimed, and that's the scum team!!!!

Need I go on, if Mastina is town this game I'll write her name on a piece of paper, fold it up, and eat it.

[Icy]

I could have easily and innocently enough jumped on Smith's wagon if I were scum. Don't know what else I can say or do to convince y'all I am town.
Mastina was my #1 read until she basically disappeared at the end of D1. I thought scum would hang around to ensure a town lynch and only RC and Grey did that. Grey seemed, and TB seems, the scummier of the two to me. I've cited my reasons several times.
And to repeat again, I'll help lynch Mastina, happier to lynch TB/Grey, either of my two scummiest reads, or RC/Alisae as my 3rd scummiest read if that's what it takes to get a lynch before the dead line.

But you see she didn't disappear at the end of D1 as a matter of fact she already posted that she came online right as grey hammered.

[Icy]

Mastina, but I do read your posts, and try to do with them what I can. They are not always easy to read and understand (at least for me). Like you saying you wanted to come on line and post at the end of day one. You lead the town to lynch Smith. RC and Smith voted Lemon at the end of day 1 (your strongest scum lean?). You say Smith was towning up the thread, and your intention was to come on AND POST!! Why wasn't your intention to come on and move your vote to Lemon?

I think it would help newb townies if you would vote your strongest scun lean instead of just going after vets. (Lemon instead of Smith) and (Chris instead of Alisae)

[Icy]

If I were to vote today it would be Alisae.

If we vote No Lynch does the scum team have to kill someone?

[Icy]

Below is my post from a few real days ago, before the last lynch. I hypothesized an Alisae lynch (but Mastina's lynch works with the same logic) who flipped town. My scenario parallels TB's post today about maybe a no lynch is better than a mislynch. What do others think? If we can 90% identify scum today, yes lynch scum. But if we are unsure, does a no lynch improve our odds of surviving another day and a better chance of lynching scum on D4? Since I don't trust TB (Grey), maybe this logic sucks but I wondered about it previously, when I was sure Grey/Tb was scum. Now, maybe TB is town since this seems like a town-friendly idea. But hey, I'm naive here.

In a regular game maybe, but in this game the scum team could just take a shot at me and town is in the same boat tomorrow. Aren't they?

[Icy]

I'm like 80% Chris, 20% Dog, but believe OW is likely town. He was only scum if Mastina was scum.

[Icy]

Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?

Yes

[Icy]

TB you still want to hold off voting?

[Icy]

Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?

Yes

Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?

For me sense the end of day one it has been Alisae, or Mastina. I agree with you on not understanding Mastinas play as town, but I am now forced to go back and read her posts as genuine town.

[Icy]

Icy, I very much want to know what you're thinking, if you've had time to reread Mastina.

Yes I have, three times now.

I'm confident Alisae is Scum, though I'm not sure who her partner is.

Really up in the air with Chris. I know Mastina said Lemons exit was scummy, but I'm still having trouble seeing that as scummier than the others that left the game. She also scum read him for going after her, but that seems normal for a townee being attacked, however I do see scum Chris doing that. I was sure that was Scum vs Town.

Im still reading the Grey/TB slot as town. I thought you were scum with Mastina. (in hindsight that partnership looks foolish) In any case reading you as town. Dog is still a coin toss for me, leaning more likely town.

Holding off my vote till we hear from Thinkbig and Chris.

[Icy]

@Icy How confident are you on TB being town?

Not 100%, maybe around 90%. I'm having trouble believing Scum Grey was so disconnected from the game. Other thing is Grey claimed he never buses (i'm not sure that's true, but it seemed sincere). At this point you are the only viable partner for TB, and grey voted Lemon/you late on day 1. Add that to Mastinas read on Grey! If the slot was town, then the slot is still town.

[Icy]

@Alisae With your scum team blown up, your still going after TB. You seem to be the only person not reevaluating your game.

[Icy]

VOTE: Alisae