Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Llamarble]

Huh, that was pretty easy.
VOTE: Postie
I'm a little curious if you're intentionally obvscum
Might be worth lynching even if intentional though

[Llamarble]

25 Offends me, but that's not why Marquis is scum #2
I'd probably have forced something, but then there were 4 scumtells in a 3 post ISO.
Is that density even beatable? "Honestly this is the first post where's the spam I was pregamethreadwatching for" might do it?

[Llamarble]

Also, we should probably lynch one of the players who has already posted today.
Ooh that makes me sound like scum trying to look town by narrowing the lynch to a small pool I belong to.
Or maybe I'm scum trying to protect my buddies because I'm a known unlynchable!
We should probably do it anyway.
TOWN:
Llamarble

Northside
ActionDan
Dunnstral - possibly first page bussing yay!

Marquis
Postie
:SCUM

[Llamarble]

That last sentence and "representative" shenanigans are why Marquis is scum.

[Llamarble]

Honestly is a word probably more used by scum, at least when it looks like that.
And yeah, I think scum might have their eyes on the start time a bit more particularly since we didn't have to confirm roles.
That's probably significant enough for us to prefer a lynch on one of the first-hour posters.
I don't like "where's all the spam" either. Noise is scummy (eventually).
F...first has scummy cadence too. Did we ever calculate whether ellipses are just a scumtell? Doesn't matter.
Hypemention is minor towntell but not enough to avoid lynch.

I didn't like Marquis' first couple posts either; I forgot about that.

[Llamarble]

How are you still alive...
VOTE: Marquis
I'll revisit this game tomorrow when I'm not feeling this subdued grouchy scatter. I think I'll name this emotion oscblur.

[Llamarble]

@lla – if i was scum i definitely would have lurked out the beginning of the game – activity is probably, for the most part, meaningless (so is everything else you mentioned).

Do you actually believe this?

[Llamarble]

I wonder if we win by lynching EddieFenix and Marquis and Postie. Wouldn't be surprised.

[Llamarble]

Sorting me is pointless, either I'll get nightkilled immediately or we'll win. Well, both is probably the most likely outcome.
(Or I'm scum and you can autolynch me a day before lylo)
Marquis is making a grand spectacle of trying to get help from his teammates.
EddieFenix totally picked the scum role PM
You're accomodating and full-breakdowny

[Llamarble]

LINE OF DEMARCATION
Whoever said that one guy was bussing that other guy is probably town. Wait no nevermind, I found that post and it's pretty lame.

Reads:
Llamarble somewhat misguided town, his scumread on Postie is p silly, but I feel like he's right on the money with Marqius, could also be right about Dunnstral's vote on Marquis being a bus
VOTE: Marquis

How am I misguided town if I'm voting scum day 1 of day 1 when only 20% of players are scum? And I also maybe found a buddy? Wouldn't that make me... pretty awesome?

[Llamarble]

I mean, I died N1 last team mafia whiteflag; the other major candidate for N1 death (Regfan) was scum.
With no powerroles in this game, somebody in some scum's team topic is going to have said "dude, you need to kill llamarble night 1"

I continue to feel good about this wagon.

You're still laying it on and contributing to a much stronger null-because-i-want-it-to-be-null-read now.

I suppose this is the Marquis thing I'm currently most curious about. Want to explain to me where this desire comes from?

I like Eddie and Gamma for town now, with ActionDan getting a couple townpoints too
I don't know how good at scum Postie is. She has mostly towntells at this point, but when I try to meta her I keep reading GD threads.

[Llamarble]

Not associative.
Right now I am thinking Marquis + Shea + Lycan
Re: Marquis:
Overall he's been here but not engaged enough
I don't like his laugh in post 30 immediately after he gets voted
I don't like his use of the team mafia format (mentions teammate but only theater comes of it, asking about others' teammates and who will read is information I think scum would especially seek)
Post 36 is the most interesting contribution he has, but it's treated as an aside ("for the record") and not pursued further. Well, actually it is. 42 part A and 48 part B are fine.

I'm curious about him asking me to unvote postie and about the null because want it to be null. Elaboration on those would be cool.

[Llamarble]

Tchill seems town so far. "Alarmed" post counts in favor and scumhunting seems genuine enough.

[Llamarble]

I violently prefer town but I've played scum in 2/4 team mafia games.
I felt it gave our team the best chance to win in year one and now whitefish is a tradition for me

[Llamarble]

Oh autocorrect. My point is setup preferencephalitis trumps align prefer for a lot of players. A player preferring scum is sometimes a scumtell but town preference is somewhat unreliable

[Llamarble]

NSG seems like lynchbait but isn't necessarily town
LQ is probably scum

[Llamarble]

If what Postie is saying about themselves as Scum is True, why the fuck does their team put Postie in a Scum role?

I wonder if we win by lynching EddieFenix and Marquis and Postie. Wouldn't be surprised.

Worst post of the thread so far.

What is the point of this post at all?

Was planning to just vote LQ despite Marquis still being a decent place to hang out, but these two give me enough pause not to bother yet.
Still, LQ is an approved wagon for now, I'm just not confident enough in it to push it.
Sell me on these from LQscum. It should be easy, I've halfway sold myself in pedit.

[Llamarble]

I'm already active; you don't need to annoy me to make me town harder, and we're obviously not spending an early lynch on me when failure to get NKed would confirm me as scum after a couple days anyway.
LQ would be a much more productive second wagon.
I can't actually think of a reason you'd want 'dueling marquis-marble wagons' as town.
Explain?

BTW if CES is alive in lylo, he is to be unconditionally lynched (the same should probably be true of me, really, even though I'm a lot easier to catch as scum than CES is)

[Llamarble]

I mean, if Marquis decides to try and lurk his wagon out we can always go back to it.
And yeah fine, Tchill's ISO actually works quite well as scum. Not sure if forced is the right word, but that doesn't matter.

And I guess I kinda see the point of a wagon on me. I'd rather go straight to the part where we lynch scum though.

[Llamarble]

I'll admit I feel less preceded by reputation than I expected.
I believe in myself. I'll stop shoving that in everyone's face.

[Llamarble]

I wish I could just delete my ISO and start over. Gonna do the next best thing and try my hardest to figure this out.

[Llamarble]

i didn't believe that he really found something, hence my saying that his entrance was forced (kind of like how your questions feel).

I like the way NSG questions the sincerity of the one questioning her, in the form of an aside. She repeats it again later and it feels good there too.
Overall I'm developing a townread on her. It's harder to construct an internal representation of scum-her that writes her posts.
NSG, if you were scum, how do you think that post of yours would have been different? (ended after 'entrance was forced?' or another thought to make it a more complete post? Or simply the same?)

[Llamarble]

I'm taking this a lot slower now Eddie, starting from the beginning. I'll get back to LQ eventually.
It takes me a lot of effort to get good reads and I'm going to put that effort in instead of just hoping that everything will magically become clear to me because I am Llamarble.

[Llamarble]

Full stop right here. There is pretty much NOTHING that says you can use to conclude that was a bus vote. It's a gut read and a stretch at that. There are reasons to Scum read you if you say stuff like this.

It felt like a bus vote to me too, simply off of the timing and it being a naked vote.
I still think Dunnstral is a pretty good possibility for scum.

Having CES, TSQ, Postie all be town, seems lucky but I guess it's not far from 50%
Still, strong players are going to look somewhat town at the beginning of games, not going to pretend I feel confident either way about any of them.
TSQ was scumpinging me some earlier but has done enough Good Works to be on the positive side of null.

Currently here, not ready to lynch or "LEAVE ALIVE ENDGAME" anyone though:
TOWN-
Llamarble

NSG
Eddie

Postie
Gamma - seemed town to me but not definite and others disagree so
CES
TSQ

Lycan
Sauce Neutral Point
LQ

AD
Marquis

Wgeurts
Dunnstral
Tchill

VOTE: Tchill

[Llamarble]

If you have different reads on CES and AD, that's fine, my reads on them aren't strong enough to be worth justifying in detail.

CES especially I've been successfully buddied by in the past. In this game he's been a little helpful, though "let's wagon marble" is pretty doable from scum so he should probably be closer to where Lycan is on the list. I do regard him as very threatening as scum; if he's alive in lylo, default lynching him really might be a good idea (in no small part because agreeing on a default lynch eliminates the "if one townie gets it wrong in lylo, town loses even if everyone else gets it right" problem). If scum want to take advantage of that they have to leave him alive a while; I feel like he's good enough at town that it's not a bad deal for us, and we don't know he's town anyway.

AD I can see scum writing the posts of. But I'll admit they're pretty good, so he can go hang out in the Lycan zone too.

[Llamarble]

Eddie isn't as bad of a vote as I was thinking, so go for it.
Tchill is... too chill. I want to see more bite. I don't really get a feeling he's trying to win the game for town.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: EddieFenix

Also can we take a moment to discuss the hot garbage that is EddieFenix's ISO
It's just a bunch of sitting back and saying things from the sidelines or am I missing something here

I'm taking a "slow and steady wins the game" approach. Attempting to form a town block with players whom I feel are town so that way we can start going thru PoE to find the scum team. While also attempting to make sure I flesh out reads and discuss with my team reads as the game crawls along. I feel I don't need to make a huge splash, just take a more methodical, diplomatic, and tactical approach to win for town. That's what you're missing in all honesty.

Eddie isn't as bad of a vote as I was thinking, so go for it.
Tchill is... too chill. I want to see more bite. I don't really get a feeling he's trying to win the game for town.

I'm toward the top of your town list, how is that "isn't as bad of a vote as I was thinking"? TChill hitting your scum list I can understand why he would be scum in your reads. Also, LQ being in the null area, why?

Well, I had you as probably town, so I was thinking you wouldn't be a good vote.
Then the surprisingly solid case of your ISO was made against you.

I'm taking this a lot slower now Eddie, starting from the beginning. I'll get back to LQ eventually.
It takes me a lot of effort to get good reads and I'm going to put that effort in instead of just hoping that everything will magically become clear to me because I am Llamarble.

Good to see you're taking a step back to think on things.

NSG vs LQ is TvT to me. I'd like at least a 6 person town block (the 3 that are on there + LQ, Marble, and NSG if they would be so kind to join us) to turn up the heat on that GE wagon, please and thank you.

Like, what do scum want to do here, in this game where they have to survive 19 days but the odds one of them dies early aren't very high? They want to be in the town block. You want 6 people in the town block, enough to give it a very high probability of containing scum, and you're trying to organize it to make sure you're in it yourself. I feel it's premature to put :anyone: in a town block right now, possible exception of NSG but even her stuff isn't that hard to imitate as scum. I also know you like playing scum, even if it hasn't gone well for you recently. Whoever has Chesskid on their team, ask him if EddieFenix has failed this city too.

This game hasn't had enough drama yet for people to legitimately town it up. I'm thinking I might abandon my zennier take it slow read it well in favor of blowing more things up, I think this game needs that.

Realistically, there are 3 scum out of 15 players. Our odds of hitting D1 aren't particularly good. On the bright side scum have low lynch influence. If this game gets to D3 and we haven't hit scum on D1 or D2, just remember, town is FINE. Morale, continuing to try and win the game as town and not getting disengaged because the first attempts don't work out, will be really important if it gets to that.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Marquis

[Llamarble]

Happy with TSQ for town.
AD could def. still be scum; ISO analysis was eh.

[Llamarble]

Alright.
TSQ is town and has done more to help town (well, me at least) than anyone so far.
I can't help seeing Gamma as town too though.
I don't generally count hallucinations about the game state against people, town usually worry a bit less about their own consistency anyhow.
Like that first post where he says I'm misguided but I've found enough scum to win the game, that's obviously derp, but I sounded like misguided town to him because I had a read he disagreed with, so that's what he posted. It doesn't make sense, but it arises from a town mindset more easily imo.
And while under pressure he's continued to look at different aspects of the game. Not afraid to swap reads suddenly either. Declaring intent to ISO someone is certainly something scum can do, but continuing to scumhunt after being caught making errors, frankly apologizing, making posts like:

In post 199, LicketyQuickety wrote:
Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

I can see how they got their reads, that's why lol

This one shows the faith (very unworried choice of words) that because they're town, the thing they did was fine.

Marquis response is fine. Doesn't make him more town than random but random is like 80% town.
VOTE: Tchill

[Llamarble]

Looking at NSG and AD since they're relevant to GE stuff too, I'm finding NSG (and NSG team) got a similar impression to mine. I find NSG's posting in this game fakeable, and TSQ is a stronger townread for sure, but NSG is making sense and working on the game.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I find post 125 incongruous with the Dunnstral evaluation before and after. I also would have expected in post 232 that LQ's acknowledgement of Dunntral's naked vote to be taken as a cue to look back and see why LQ would have said that, instead of making something of it.

Similarly, but much more importantly, there is disparity present between posts 105 and 231 with regard to the read on Sauce. Although 231 doesn't endorse a town read of Sauce there, it is a statement that is a far cry from the feelings expressed in 105.

I don't find anything nearly as scummy in the TSQ/Gamma back and forth as the above, but I will say that I got a strong townread of TSQ out of it.

also, i'm pretty much of the opposite opinion to dan when it comes to the tsq/gamma interaction – i think gamma's suspicion on dunn is very easily explained by a confusion of the order of events when it comes to dunn's vote vs the rest of the marquis wagon whereas i think tsq's push there feels opportunistic. mathdino agrees with me here, and he thinks the same "predatory" or "gotcha fishing"-style was visible in tsq's posts to me.

To me, AD's 282 looks more gotcha-fishy than TSQ's posts, mostly because "a real townie would have done X, so you're not a real townie!" arguments always looks sketchy to me.

[Llamarble]

Mmm, of the lurkers Wge and Dunn actually haven't incriminated themselves too hard, but I want a Tchill take from each of them.

Lycan, if you want anybody to follow you onto CES, you'll need a lot more presence in the game.

[Llamarble]

TChill + Lycan + AD
Will check if they've done associative tells tomorrow. Now sleep.

[Llamarble]

CES is first alternate

[Llamarble]

LQ is a very good scum candidate too. Those 3/15 odds aren't looking so bad anymore.
I liked Lycan's big post; puts him in the area of "nothing particularly difficult to fake yet but moving in a good direction" with NSG.

[Llamarble]

a co-ordinated scum team of Tchill, LQ, and Marble (which wouldn't be out of the question as of this post now that I think about it.

So uh
My buddies are my top 2 scumpicks
One of whom I am voting
Excellent

Though I actually got happy when I (a few hours ago) ran into that LQ post about Tchill meta, it was very.much the flavor of.buddies. So you can have partial credit for noticing that at least.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: TSQ

Can you explain to me how this happened? It makes so little sense to me that I actually laughed.
Normally getting in a fight makes even scum look a little townier, but LQ just went flat on his scum face.
Like, he tries to claim "No doubt you would've voted me if others did" is scummy because it doesn't show doubt. But it's about a PREDICTION of BEHAVIOR, not alignment. Way to rely on the kinds of words people see as legitimate while pointing them at something they clearly don't apply to.
His defense is a pile of information over analysis, most of it wholly irrelevant. Aw yay, LQ doesn't like that I often solve games holistically and care about interactions and teams D1. It works for me, and I've been successful. You may prefer something else. Fine. We have now wasted time.

The problem I am having with the SRs on me is that there isn't much probing from players who are Scum reading me. Some players are doing this, but most of what people are bringing to me as an inquiry are things that I don't see a whole lot of relevance to actually sort me. Examples include Postie asking me to ask my teammates what their reads on players are in this game and Lycan asking me why I had a change in perspective on Marquis reads list. Shea has probably been the person who has looked like they have tried to sort me the most, but I am not going to TR him just solely on that fact.

The reasons people find you scummy aren't the tells you anticipated? The horror! Oh and the guy making genuine effort to read you (and the rest of the game) is scum, because that follows.

Then there's some nice (exactly the kind of stuff I happily spam as scum) discussion of personal history and gamestate.

Feeling really good about LQ scum now.
VOTE: LQ
Tchill is still scum too. But like, not as LOLblatantly.

[Llamarble]

On top of not referring to alignment, it's also not an example of excessive certainty in general.
Excessive certainty is when someone plays like they KNOW they have the answer.
Using the words 'no doubt' is a normal way to express confidence. The words themselves aren't the too sure tell.
But LQ saw a buzzword and jumped on it as something he could talk about.

[Llamarble]

It's almost as though context matters to the meaning of words, or something.

[Llamarble]

I'm currently on LQ + Tchill + CES.
The triple ISO is very pretty. It works.
AD can be first alternate for now, though I haven't looked at his posts in a little while.

[Llamarble]

It's almost as though context matters to the meaning of words, or something.

You are impressing me with how stupid you are.

TSQ basically stated that he had no doubt that I was Scum.

Lets do a pop quiz:

If shea says "I have no doubt that you would have voted me"

Does shea mean

a) "I have no doubt you would have voted me"

or

b) "I have no doubt you are scum."

The ONLY other explanation that TSQ can have is that he was saying he misunderstood my motive as Town and thought I would have voted a high BW as Town there and I am not buying that.

I see you starting conversations and interactions with people and then trying to gauge town reactions to those things and disengaging with the pokes as soon as its clear people aren't going to start voting the person.

Like, I have no doubt you would have voted me after our exchange if a couple of other people had.

Shea found the bolded scummy. Based on this behavior, he predicted you'd have voted for him if others had.
It doesn't matter at all if he said "Like, I am confident you would have" or "I'm sure you'd have" or "I think you'd have."
He's using an idiomatic expression to confidently express his analysis of your behavior.
He's not going "HERPADERPA LYNCH LQ 100% COOKIES AWAIT I GUARANTEEE MAKE IT DIE 1V1 AHAHAHAHAHA"

You saw the words "no doubt" and thought "ooh, too-sure-tell, free content" and wrote posts.

[Llamarble]

We're not really having the helpful conversations I was hoping to have, are we. Did you even follow up on my hint?

I didn't. I wasn't really a fan of the "let's wagon marble maybe something useful will come of it" thing either.
If it was the ffery thing (is that meant to refer to cabd?) -
I haven't asked teammates for help really; it takes quite a bit of investment to get immersed enough in a thread to genuinely contribute to figuring it out.
I don't really know how to make use of the reads of others anyway unless they're extremely strong disagreement with me when I reevaluate.

Agree with AD re: Sauce voting patterns. Still shocked and appalled by that TSQ vote.
Are you still convinced of Gammascum AD? I wasn't able to see it. I'm far from perfect; you could still be right and I'm open to being convinced, but as is I'll most likely block a Gammalynch today.
I hope you can really go after some of the other things you're pursuing because they do seem interesting.

[Llamarble]

Eddie's play feels like he doesn't know what town is supposed to do and he's trying to mimic that.
Which I guess is what scum does, so voting him is allowed.
We haven't seen any thoughts about the game, just some seemingly random townreads that aren't explained.
"Let's make a 6 person townblock even though I don't have any idea what's going on!"
The closest thing to scumhunting is where he says LQ and Tchill and I are all scum together (which makes negative sense), but he isn't even voting any of us, he's voting Gamma for some reason. Who's left in your townblock now that LQ and I are scumpicks?

All he asks about is finding out what other people's reads are, in theory so he can organize a town block.
Normally, people who care about what direction the day is going, who try and plan to get the votes figured out without having something in mind they want to do with those votes they are recruiting, those are the things scum care about discovering. Put differently, town want to find scum. Scum want to figure out what town are going to do so they can steer it not to hurt them.
So yeah, headpiking Eddie would be just fine. After LQ and TChill though I think.

CES lamenting the non-continuity is harmless but we are going to need more from him. As things stand, I would still have him in lylo-autolynch territory for being a difficult to read good player.

[Llamarble]

So Eddie, you get one more chance - a clearly articulated readlist will help us understand you better.
Who is scum? Clearly articulate why you believe this. Your reasons need not be perfect; they just need to be your actual ones.
Who is town? Clearly articulate why you believe this. Your reasons need not be perfect; they just need to be your actual ones.

[Llamarble]

LQ, I'm saying the same thing Shea said before because what he said before completely and successfully invalidated your argument.
Trying to use the too-certain tell in that context was a misapplication and scummy of you.
If you're not actually scum, tell us why we should lynch Eddie or TChill instead of you.
And um, take a moment to calm down and see if you can admit to yourself that TSQ is the most pro-town player in this game.

People aren't scum reading you because you're mechanical, they're scum reading you because you don't seem to care who is lynched and because you're not telling us what your reads are and not explaining them. In the absence of information, what the hell else am I supposed to think?

Here you imply there is a consensus on why people are SRing me.

Honestly, what is going through my head at this point is I am wondering if you are playing a slayers gambit, because this is just too easy at this point.

How on earth would this make TSQ scummy? You're fishing for inconsistencies and poor word choices. Obviously Shea can't speak perfectly for everyone's reasons for voting you. But you trying to reduce the scumreads on you to not knowing who you are as a player was scummy and needed to be shut down and he did.

To me, you look like a scumbag in fightmode. There are a couple things that are easy to play as scum imo and one of them is trying to fight with somebody who's going after you using the imperfections in what are overall good arguments. That's what I see in your content and a major reason I'm currently voting you.

[Llamarble]

Llamarble

TSQ
NSG
Postie
Gamma

Wsgeurts
Lycan
Dunnstral
CES
Sauce
Marquis

AD

Eddie - Though perhaps not with LQ?
Tchill
LQ

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the order within groups.

P:edit
Of course it won't excuse anything, but it will help us get the lynch right between him and Tchill and LQ

[Llamarble]

I hadn't looked at LQ recently, so I put them in the null zone in that list a while ago.

You're null/town in my book and I hit the "f- it" button Friday. I need new players to come in and actually DO something instead of seeing the same names each. And every. PAGE. We're hitting wall upon wall of just UGH and I'm growing apathetic tbh. If you wanna keep the guns on, keep at it. Gonna be over here playing paddle ball.

10 players in this game have 25 or more posts. AD has 18 but I'd say his participation is just fine.
There is plenty to look at. You just aren't, so far as we can tell. Scum feeling defeated much?

It does. However, Tchill is still on Postie and that player (Tchill) REEKS of scum imo.

What happened to this, by the way?
???

[Llamarble]

I overcame my stubbornness and answerEd your question.
Why didn't you vote or push Tchill, who "REEKS" of scum?
If you want town MVP points you have to help the town win.

[Llamarble]

(If you are town, we are on the same team, so pls help)
Anyway the reason I woke myself up was I got paranoid about Postie and ISOed her in bed and I can't remember why she is town.
Mostly I just see a good player playing the game. Solid probability of town because game loaded with town but not the obvtown I was hoping.
TSQ is take it to the bank never lynch town though because he got frustrated with me and tried to pull me more actively into the game.(which worked). I will ISO him again sometime to make sure but he and Gamma are town 1 and town 2 and NSG has made fakeable posts but they have also been good; gets exhausting to continue to produce moderate grade town tells like that as scum so I think she can be town 3.

[Llamarble]

there's also the chance that i'm underselling eddie's scumgame, which i'm unfamiliar with.

Like this checking her work, considering blinds pot in the moment is good from NSG.
Also I liked her not letting Lycan off without recognizing the scum pattern his stuff conforms to. I was thinking of Lucan when wondering which nulls and townreads might be scum and that made me think of NSG saying this.
Okay back to sleep.
I forgot how much these games consume me.

[Llamarble]

OK, this sounds like you are trying to put more effort into getting your TRs correct than your SRs. What's the Town motivation for that? Have you even bothered to ISO me, your strongest SR?

I've ISOed you a couple times.
I don't have a grand plan for my reading order.
I was literally falling asleep and thought "whoah, why am I townreading Postie again?" and got up to check.

Llamarble if I called the scumteam as Marquis+ActionDan+CES what would be your opinion?

I don't see anything wrong with these choices, particularly CES + AD I can believe. CES is going after Marquis with a decent amount of energy, but not enough to rule out the pairing.

[Llamarble]

But uh, why else mention it and ask for the town motivation?

[Llamarble]

Mmk.
VOTE: Tchill

[Llamarble]

Is the latter comment referring to Shea?

Yeah, Shea was doing Good Works trying to figure out the game looking into Gamma and then LQ; I find it difficult to buy LQ genuinely found it scummy.

[Llamarble]

Is the latter comment referring to Shea?

Yeah, Shea was doing Good Works trying to figure out the game looking into Gamma and then LQ; I find it difficult to buy LQ genuinely found it scummy.

You gunna answer my question?

Maybe someday.

Town:
Llama

TSQ
NSG
Gamma

Town enough for probably not lynching today, I guess? For now:
Davsto
Lycan
Sauce

Difficult to read players that I don't have any special reason to believe are town
Postie - paranoid about this one especially because "wait why are we townreading this player" happens a lot with scum
CES

Dunnstral

Serious D1 Lynch Options:
Marquis
Eddie

AD
LQ
Tchill

[Llamarble]

Get your act together. Get your reads in a lined up, orderly fashion, and we can chat. This day to day, whip lash, flip-a-zoo, shifting sands reads game isn't gonna keep flying with me when I have to keep figuring out who all you have as town and scum. If tomorrow is different AGAIN, I might need a table flip gif. Cause right now, this is where I am

I'm giving a complete readslist on a regular basis; my reads ARE in a lined up orderly fashion.
I can't help that my reads change as I read and reread the game.
This kind of post is why you're in the D1 lynchpool though.
Keeping careful track of everyones' reads is what scum do because they need to figure out what mislynch to pursue.
Why is "figuring out who all you have as town and scum" so important to you?
There's so much information in this game you can use to figure out who got which role PMs; by focusing on the information scum wants and not paying much attention to the things towns normally care about (you know, identifying and lynching scum), you are practically BEGGING us to lynch you.
Reads.
Reasons.

[Llamarble]

Yeah. Kinda does.
Marquis -> Town enough to probably not bother lynching today
Dunnstral -> Actual lynch candidates

[Llamarble]

Mm, in the picture in my head they are town at least somewhat.
Why does this upset you?

We actually don't have much time left. I hope I can chunk time in tomorrow (30th) to try for a final solve. 3/15 is so hard
My subconscious is really concerned about Postie.

[Llamarble]

I literally unvoted the second I realized my mistake. And the reason I thought there was a wagon there was I remembered votes on someone Llalmarble suspected, and knew some people were suspecting Marquis, so I thought the votes were on her. I get that there is some scumminess to what I did, but I didn't just votepark, I actually thought I had a point. And I've asked other questions and made other reads, so what I'm seeing here is you boiling down my content to one misguided push.

You can see the focus here is on explaining how he believes his actions differ to how you presented them - he's saying he thinks you were misrepping him.

Alright guys, got our first.

Wanna actually address my issues with you rather than say "got our first"? Or do you just want to throw shade?

So this is based on how you play then? That's alright but not everyone plays the same, so that's not a perfect method of reading people.

Then he continues to engage you, as a follow-up to his vote. From these comments I get the vibe he's not exactly 100% on his vote and is looking to get more information out of you to develop his read.

Looks pretty natural to me.

I

literally

unvoted

the second

I realized my mistake. And the reason I thought there was a wagon there was I remembered votes on someone Llalmarble suspected, and knew some people were suspecting Marquis, so I thought the votes were on her.

I get that there is some scumminess to what I did, but I didn't just

votepark, I actually thought I had a point. And I've asked other questions and made other reads, so what I'm seeing here is you boiling down my content to one misguided push.

I think you can also very much see the frustration bleeding through here as he's trying to explain.

OK TSQ this does look townie.

You don't think Postie is white knighting for Gamma here? Reminds me of me WNing for Ellieheathen in some game ages ago that isn't worth looking up.

Raagghhh I want to solve this

[Llamarble]

UNVOTE: tchill
Might be temporary unvote. Note toself remembertherepbreakdown
Meow

[Llamarble]

I don't care about that I just want to lynch correctly D1 before I go poof.
Eddie feels sorta lynchbaity; wking for gamma then pushing eddie feels like how I would play this as scum, but Postie has done a good job on word choices and stuff at a few points idk

[Llamarble]

Postie:
In the first link you self meta a bit mentioning you're prone to "can you" questions as scum
You have 3 can yous in this game.
Do you really think Eddie is scum? I may be falling for 'too scummy to be scum' here, idk.
Like, yeah, he is not performing the basic functions of a town, but is that because he's scum? Not sure.
Like I was saying before, I mostly like your tone Postie but I do think you're playing this game like I would as scum. Starting pretty strong, then slowing down a bit and the followup content is defending an unpopular (but fairly obvious because indignant?) townread and giving a scumread on someone who isn't living up to what they should be doing (this was your reason for LQscummy earlier too).
What fraction of your team mafia time is going into this game?

I kinda agree with CES; Tchill got an independent read, and then repeated (that's what my note to self is about) his same idea after not much attention was paid to it.
I also agreed with him about the Postie thing he didn't like, which I think of as being breakdowny, for lack of a better term.
I think An ISO could be worse, though I won't call him town or anything.
Some of my Tchill vote was "there's a latent wagon on this guy; what will happen if I vote him?" The read was admittedly a little stale even when I went on.
Dunnstral and LQ are the serious possibilities for scum voting TChill.

I'm hoping some scumteam drawn from Dunnstral LQ AD, possibly CES could work.
If not I'll soon hit the "I have significant reservations about every lynch" point and be sad.

[Llamarble]

Well Dunnstral has redeemed his Tchill vote a bit, though not full towncred since he was in that game too and would obviously note the discrepancy even if scum.
I may rejoin the wagon tomorrow, pending rereads of the serious lynch options to see if can find one true lynch.
And I agree with TSQ on leaning Saucetown changing to Sauce town with his teamposting, paranoia is satisfied on Postie too.
CES is good as a Tchill teammate.

[Llamarble]

Yeah ok.
VOTE: Tchill
My guess going into Night One is Tchill CES AD. Gamma has done a few things that do me a concern but overall is still probably town.
(although AD's "I doubt Chess would give a different read on Eddie" gives me a reservation there, so probably just CES next if Tchillscum)

Let's let Tchill say something before hammer, maybe he's just waiting for his moment to obvtown, but I don't see a better lynch for today.

[Llamarble]

I still don't know what to make of Eddie saying Tchill "REEKS" of scum but showing no interest in pursuing that avenue.
I bet he'll randomly show up and hammer and cement himself as the D2 lynch or something.

[Llamarble]

It's a random "I wonder how things will play out" thought.
Davsto could be scum still. After Davsto and Eddies as tier 2, Marquis LQ are still possible.
I admit I probably scumread AD more than I should but he should at least be south of null, I think.

[Llamarble]

TChill is at L-1

We haven't heard from them in a while, so let's do that before we proceed please.

[Llamarble]

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

It was pretty dubious, wasn't it. Definitely made me doubt my townread on him and remove him from the upper tier townies.
I'm not as ready to welcome Davsto to the towny pile as TSQ, I think he would be about as good a competing wagon as GE.
Also I think really I was intending to discourage Eddie from just randomly hammering, as if he's town and does that, that sends town down a bad path.
If he's scum I doubt he'll get far anyway.

[Llamarble]

I tend to play very holistically, I'll look at someone's entire ISO and think to myself "is this a scum ISO or a town ISO"
Or at the entire game and "is this a game where CES and AD and Tchill are the scumteam?
That being said, I think I've shared quite a few specific things that have influenced my reads if you look through.

[Llamarble]

CES is defending Tchill
There are only 3 scum in a 15 player game; scum influence over the lynch will be pretty low D1.
No matter what lynch happens, it will inevitably be town-driven.

[Llamarble]

Specifically, CES is now on a wagon that TSQ (most universally townread player in game) previously approved of.
He said Tchill isn't any better than a random lynch, but it's hard to go as far as townreading TChill's ISO.
Tchill's scumbuddies need Tchill to come out and defend himself really well; their job is to make sure the lynch falls on a townie after.

[Llamarble]

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

On second thought, 702 isn't really a case.
He reads Tchill, sees some stuff he doesn't like but mostly eh, and is alright with voting him.
Then he goes back to his own pet project which is LQ.
That's actually pretty townie of him.
And Davsto's post is fine too.
Davsto it's your job to make sure town stays a little paranoid of Postie after I'm gone <3

I'm seeing both of those posts as more "We're lynching TChill? *reads Tchill posts* Okay, this is not a terrible plan."

[Llamarble]

Also didn't Davsto say he looked at the others and he agrees that it wasn't the reason in the other games? I think he did.

[Llamarble]

On the other hand, upon skimming the games it does appear her losses are to do with not playing well rather than being under scrutiny due to previous performances.

Yeah this

[Llamarble]

Heh I just ISOed you wondering what you thought of the Tchill wagon since it's probably gonna lynch.
Actually can you just do a readslist (More to see another angle on the gamesolve than to help me read you, actually)

[Llamarble]

There's usually good stuff to be had in the interactions with the player who's about to be lynched.
Agree Tchill should at least be around for his own death.

[Llamarble]

Eddie is classically scummy. He was also classically scummy in the last game I played with him, where Chesskid vigged him and he flipped scum. He was also my buddy, actually, after my alignment changed after D1 (bonus: you can see how much more awesome I am before I become scum - half of my ISO is from the 2 days between when I replace in and when my alignment changes). AD was in that game, along with Chesskid. They think he's different here; I'm not sure I see it. It was TBD mafia by the way.

[Llamarble]

I um.
Well fine then.
VOTE: EddieFenix

[Llamarble]

Well, if two people are doing something and one of them is probably town (Postie) and the other is sketchy (CES), it's fine to focus on the scummy doer of the thing.

[Llamarble]

Getting a little happier about Dunnstral
TOWN
Me
TSQ
NSG

Gamma
Postie
Ranmaru

Lycan
Dunnstral
Davsto
Marquis

I think this might actually be my null line?

LQ
AD
CES
Tchill
Eddie

[Llamarble]

@Dunn

- Link me some games that show Tchill has a meta of lurking as scum?

Hm, I actually can't find any

There's still the matter of his actual posting looking different to where he is town, though

I'm kind of eyeing Cogito Ergo Sum and wondering if they're white knighting/defending scum and wondering if it's better to just go for them instead

I went and found an Eddie town game.

Holy shit he needs rope right the fuck now

I um.
Well fine then.
VOTE: EddieFenix

What are you guys seeing, can you point it out

Specifically liked these two.
One, he's not just coasting it out on Tchill, he's pushing it (postcount stuff) but remaining interested in alternatives.
Second one is viable from both alignments obviously but does fit into overall engagement and interest in making a good end to D1 over riding out Tchill lynch.
Also I think these posts make most of his potential scumbuddy pairings somewhat unlikely

(ALTHOUGH: Beware of ruling someone out because they don't have potential scumbuddies. That is how I won Team Mafia White Flag round 1 as scum)


P. Edit:
I am basically voting both of them right now. I might hammer TChill myself once we get some more interactions out of that slot.

[Llamarble]

I feel I am doing that by showing them they are wrong. Look, this is pretty standard behavior for me as any alignment.

Sounds an awful lot like "I also do this as town!"

With LQ not on it this Tchill wagon is massively town. If Tchill does flip town, Do Not Assume there is a scum on the wagon. I wouldn't be surprised if there are zero (currently) on it, even with a townflip from Tchill.

[Llamarble]

(All town wagon on town is something i have seen scum with daytalk arrange and I've done it myself too)
Especially happens when there is only 1 wagon.
So yeah don't insist on an on wagon lynch regardless tchill flip.
That is one of town's loss vectors and if we keep those shut we should win.

[Llamarble]

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

[Llamarble]

Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.

[Llamarble]

I think I'm voting town.
VOTE: Tchill
Just do Tchill, when it flips red do CES.
Do AD or maybe LQ if game isn't over by then.

Based on what?
Nightkills go on people who are good at identifying scum and are never going to get lynched.
TSQ is playing well and obviously never getting lynched. If he's scum we'll just have to lynch his buddies.
I'm never getting lynched because I'm town, though if scum want to leave me alive to lylo, letting a player with my history of lynch control and lynch accuracy alive through 5 days, and I fail to win it by then, I will accept my own autolynch in lylo because I'll deserve it.
NSG and Ran and Postie are universal or near universal townreads.

Lynches go to people who are not obvtown or people who are scummy.
There are decent to very good reasons not to lynch Gamma Dunn Lycan Davsto and Marquis, but they aren't universal townreads either so they prob won't eat nightkills.
LQ Eddie Tchill CES AD are all widely scumread players (to varying degrees), for good reason. It's not hard to have a decent guess of where things are going.
Am I getting ahead of myself, sure. Am I really helping by posting this, maybe? I tend to just let my thoughts out in the thread a lot. It can be a little spammy sometimes unfortunately but I don't think there are many players who get as cosmically obvtown as I do so it's worth it to me.

[Llamarble]

If you think I'm exercising a lot of influence now, just wait until you try and make a lynch happen that I don't approve of lol.

[Llamarble]

I kinda let my ego get the best of me there, sorry.
Let's just hammer Tchill and see what happens.
I still think TChill AD CES is best right now.

[Llamarble]

If you are town, I think your wagon is all town anyway (with scum using daytalk to try and set up a mislynch with none of them on it)

[Llamarble]

If you are town, I think your wagon is all town anyway (with scum using daytalk to try and set up a mislynch with none of them on it)

Any reason why? Was this slot that lynchbaity?

It's more that all the scummy players are either voting gamma or nobody, which smells to me like a (assuming you flip town) scum plan of "allow an all town wagon on town" -> mislynch people from that wagon and especially gamma who was closest thing to counterwagon to town.
It's particularly easy to pull something like that off in 3v12 with day talk; I think I would try.to as scum.

[Llamarble]

CES is rarely particularly townie looking unless he lynches scum.
He's pretty good at not getting lynched though; dangerous scum player.
Often as town he will do enough dmg or look threatening enough to get himself NKed.
My preferred solution is to let him play a few game days but if town isn't winning before lylo he is probably scum.
I generally advocate lynching the player who had no business still being alive in lylo.

AD who is the third scum with TChill and CES if not you? Marquis maybe? He isn't particularly town I suppose.

[Llamarble]

And yeah on my last read through i got fairly decent eddie townish feelings which is why I am ready for day to end.

[Llamarble]

Don't worry postie if tchill townflip.and you eat NK I shall grant Eddie 754 scum points

Pefit
I think if you are in one game with tchill where he is posting and one where he is not, original thought is not required to make case against him. Don't overcred dunn for that specifically. However overall I find him alright anyway.
Is the gimmick scum specific?
Also by bait do you mean these players are town?

[Llamarble]

@Davsto: How's the catch up going?

A bit slow for now due to busy and tiring weekdays. However, it's saturday soon, and I will be caught up for certain by saturday evening (remember I'm in Britain so my time may not match up with yours tho)

Sorry about the delays but I hope my posts are providing enough substance that I'm not being dead town weight rn

If you are town, I think your wagon is all town anyway (with scum using daytalk to try and set up a mislynch with none of them on it)

Any reason why? Was this slot that lynchbaity?

It's more that all the scummy players are either voting gamma or nobody, which smells to me like a (assuming you flip town) scum plan of "allow an all town wagon on town" -> mislynch people from that wagon and especially gamma who was closest thing to counterwagon to town.
It's particularly easy to pull something like that off in 3v12 with day talk; I think I would try.to as scum.

I can agree with this thinking.
This isn’t the only reason you think the wagon is all town though right? Want to make sure I understand that part.

That is the reason that assuming you are town I think your wagon is town.
Without assuming you are town, it looks like a wagon of lots of town voting for scum, which has also been known to happen.

Eddie being so tuned into all the reads on him is just funny, like I didn't know it was possible to play exclusively to scum wincon so hard and not be obvscum.

Am I LQ's top scumread now? Because that is pretty funny too. I've been mercurial, sure, but I also think me OBSESSIVELY rechecking my reads, literally waking up at night paranoid about someone who has zero chance of getting lynched today, trying to subdue any threat to a town win, even several game days out, makes me obvtown on a special level.

[Llamarble]

Forgot i quoted that davsto post but i didn't like it; awkward townproclamation.

[Llamarble]

But yeah based on screen I say we still lynch screen. I will look into LQ again later today though I guess.

[Llamarble]

You shouldn’t have to tell someone why you are obv town. It just is by your actions.

Ok, but at some point you gotta admit that I would have to be some kind of mechanized badass to produce my ISO this game as scum. Like my Eddie prog, where every case I can make about him points to playing to scum wincon but I still think a townie probably made his ISO but I am also unsure and back and forth sometimes.

[Llamarble]

page 12
LQ would be my vote at this point

Why?

Because it seems like you are full of shit.

oh probably just because "you play mechanically" or "he didn't iso you" or "because he doesn't like how play" or because "hes stupid or scum" or "doesn't understand what your motivation is" or any number of the bs nonsense you've used to cast doubt on people scum reading you this entire game without interacting with their actual arguments.

This very next posts sums it up pretty good.


Iirc from last night reading, it looked like you were looking busy throwing shade and creating doubt.
Whenever questioned about something you said a lot without saying anything.

Did i say saturday evening? I mean sunday actually am meeting with gf on saturday sry

But I'll try my best to keep with the current state of the game too since that's quite late

rn I think I'll vote LQ because a lot of what he's done has rubbed me the wrong way

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

Out of your a lot pile give me an example of one thing that rubbed you wrong.

Based off me? How so?

These two posts ard your best since replacing in, but LQ is exactly whom you go for if you are scum here. Which mostly leaves asking Davsto for an example as the only "not obviously what a scum would do" post so far, and I can still see that from scum too.

[Llamarble]

Like, good on Ran for making end of day interesting but I don't think we should switch to LQ at this time. I promise to check more thoroughly tonight though. I am due for an LQ reread.

[Llamarble]

Mmhmm, what Shea said. Not the only play, but certainly the obvious one.

It had Ran pushing it and a number of expressed scumreads; I think it would be the obvious pick if you can tell the gamma wagon has no legs for today.

[Llamarble]

Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

I would never use this argument because it lacks anything concrete, but Mulch said that Llama should fuck off with their SR on us.

What do you think about the parts of the post (most of it) that aren't directed at you?

Well that's an interesting way to sidestep what I said.

What I see is lack of consistency into the methodology to get the reads that Reck is representing. In the first case, Reck is using a mind meld read. In the second, he is using a read based on play. And in the third he is using a meta read. So it's quite confusing why Reck is using three methods to get 3 different reads.

Do you actually think its unusual to use different things to understand your surroundings as they become relevant?

No, I don't. But I do think that it shows that Reck either doesn't know what he is talking about because he is forced to use different methodologies instead of keeping the methodologies the same, or you are Scum and that is the reason for the different methodologies.

In short, Reck is using different tactics, so the goal must be the thing that is the same. See here to know what I am talking about: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=69491
Basically, I think it's a bit more Scummy than Towny the way Reck goes about making these statements.

I disagree I guess. Frequently when I'm reading through a game I note things and end up with a list of things that bear no relation to each other. Its not because I'm "switching methodologies" or whatever, its that my methodology is reading the posts and seeing what things stick out to me. For instance, if I player I know well is playing very differently from how I would expect them to I take note of it, but I would also take note of posts by that player that seem to have town motivation behind them. I think most people play this way? I don't want to get too far down the theory rabbit hole but this is game relevant so I do want to talk about it

You have just moved the goal posts. We were not talking about how you get reads but how Reck came to the conclusion to the reads he gave. You don't what Reck's methodologies are for getting reads and there is evidence of the fact you didn't have this conversation because you said you assume most people play the same way you do without mentioning that Reck said he gets reads the same way you do.

I am getting more and more suspicious of you, shea, because you seem to be bringing up points with me only to drop them later when I say something you are not expecting. It's the hesitation that I see in your responses that tell me that you either feel I am on to something or don't know how to respond. Given you never talked Reck in what I said in reply to Reck, this leads me to believe you are not hesitant because you don't know how to respond (because otherwise you would have talked to Reck about what I said), but rather that you are Scum trying to give a believable spin on things.

FoS Shea

LQ I was afraid you had gotten more pleasant to play with since our last encounter lol. Her posts seem very methodical. Also what's the point in not giving postie scum if they're bad at scum but can be coached through the game?

What do you mean they seem more methodical? This is the same thing as saying Posties post's feel a certain way. I have no idea what you are talking about unless you show your work. Otherwise I am going to do what newbs do and look to see if I can see the angle that Posties posts look methodical and then I would ofc see that angle and think you are right.

Postie could be being coached. I am not ruling that out. It's especially true if Postie is on RC's team. I already thought of that, I just didn't comment on it because it's pretty much impossible to prove.

Spoiler: 21-30

You are impressing me with how stupid you are.

Why are you resorting to insults here? You are just sniping him with insults to undermine his position as universal town read.

LQ still looks town to me. Lots of posts I've glossed over admittedly and I probably could use to recheck my read there, but I don't see the scummitude others do.

Can you do that please? Also can you move your vote from Gamma. I don't think he's scum. Give me two scum picks bro.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

Yeah, things aren't really going quite as planned; I thought things would develop more helpfully. The main reasons I found Marquis scummy very early on were 1) his general awkward tone early on and 2) the whole "representative" affectation. I think Signs and Void from last Team Mafia is pretty important context here - his early posts here feel really similar. I think both of those things are more significant than his lurking although his lurking has also felt scum-motivated (but I'd be more hard-pressed to explain the nuts and bolts of that feeling).

You never really explained your early scumread on Marbles. 1) I don't see how an awkward tone would mean it leans towards scum indicative. 2) I thought the representative thing was funny, but don't understand why you find it suspicious. Can you explain those two points?

VOTE: wgeurts

yeah i should have took my vote off postie apologies for that.

This shows that you aren't really caring to scumhunt, just give the appearance that you are.

Eddie, GE, why aren't you voting?

I wonder why you don't ask this question more often. (A good question to ask though)

any particular reason for voting the person being replaced? by the way, tchill has been active elsewhere on site but not here.
VOTE: tchill

As I was following the game I noticed this too. I wondered why he wasn't getting back to defend himself, while I constantly see his posts in other mafia games.

CES -

50/50 on Town/Null

Why is CES town/null?

"6 suspects" / "no CES" in post 430.

Nobody gets upset with someone that gives 11 towns 2 nulls in a mini. They might get upset with which reads fall onto certain people. Saying I can't find >3 people scummy at any given time is disingenuous. I placed a big-ass disclaimer at the beginning of my post that I didn't care about calling a team, working with a theory, and that I was going to put town or scum on everyone. Deal with it. Regarding the lack of CES, if you look closely I spell out "Vote CES" if you apply the Fibonacci sequence to every paragraph.

.... No, seriously, CES is clearly on my mind when I put Tchill in scum territory just for discounting the possibilities of CES. My first point was something I couldn't make heads or tails of, so he landed there purely as a result of my second point. All I was doing was making reads off of interesting developments within 3-4 pages. Deal with it.

:good posting: CES is also on my mind. I have nothing new to add, still lack of presence, not really scumhunting as much because he feels the thread hasn't developed, when it has developed plenty. The game state has been pretty laid back and I am to assume scum are playing it safe.

@lycanfire 606: I was engaging ef,not defending him. shade noted though.

VOTE: LQ
At this point I believe LQ is trying to make the people on his wagon look bad by challenging their opinions.

I agree, good vote.

the way you're challenging them feels like you just want to make them look bad, not that you care to help them

I like this too.

I feel I am doing that by showing them they are wrong. Look, this is pretty standard behavior for me as any alignment. I fight my SR's on me. You can look at pretty much any game and if I am SR then there is a really really good chance that I operate exactly how you are seeing me operate in this game.

It doesn't seem that way to me. You aren't trying to sort them, nor try to get them to see that they are wrong. You are trying to get them off your back, and then when it doesn't work, you vote them. Otherwise, you insult them. That doesn't work if you want to show people that they are wrong.

above post seems like a pretty bizarre overreaction. Forced?

Not beyond the norm for Gamma.

I assume you're asking about the second sentence since the VC should be self-evidently bad with the votes spread across 9 different people.

With Tchill, I see like 2 things that feel definitely scummy to me (the faux catch-up at the start, #212), some big picture "lack of scumhunting"-scumminess but then you also have his off-the-wall theory about Postie being coached (especially in the context of him disavowing team mafia-based theories) which is a nice town tell. It looks to me like a wagon driven by relatively crude heuristics.

What do you think of Tchill avoiding this game and posting in others right now? How does that affect your read on him?

Unvote, vote: Postie

No.

I'm going to hard no sir a postie lynch today.

Same.

Yeah ok.
VOTE: Tchill
My guess going into Night One is Tchill CES AD. Gamma has done a few things that do me a concern but overall is still probably town.
(although AD's "I doubt Chess would give a different read on Eddie" gives me a reservation there, so probably just CES next if Tchillscum)

Let's let Tchill say something before hammer, maybe he's just waiting for his moment to obvtown, but I don't see a better lynch for today.

I don't see scum in AD. More like AD being wrong.

Anyone interested in a last-minute actually good wagon on GE for that gross case in #702?

Unvote, vote: Gamma Emerald

No.

Sup Ranmaru.

I can't begin to express how happy I am that you are not vonflare.

Thanks. Nothing much. Nice to meet you.

Spoiler: Reads

Ranmaru

TSQ - Good presence in thread, most active and scumhunting.

POSTIE - Consistent scumhunting since early game, even though some of it is misguided, it is also what I have experienced with town postie.

Gamma - I like his recent contributions to the thread. His frustration seems normal to me. As scum he loses interest and doesn't put that much effort into cases, he kind of lurks until he's wagoned for not doing anything at all, and then makes excuses. He also has good tone here.

Llamarbles - I like his presence as well, although not not as present as TSQ. Yet it compliments him and I can agree to some of his reads. Hey look see Llama, that last game we played in years ago was a fluke.

Lycan - I liked his analysis on CES, and his reads. I only really like his push on CES, though.

NSG - I like her persistence in questioning CES on his scumreads, and I liked her early game response to Llama, it would be similar to what I would have done.
Dunnstrals - I like that he is getting into the game at this point. Don't know why he was less present in early game.
AD - I kind of need a vote from AD to get a better feel on him.

MARQUIS - null, I don't see scum intent but want a bit more from him
WSGEURTS - null not even here
EDDIE - null but can see what postie is saying, just doesn't stick out to me as much as T L C. Don't want no scrubs.

Tchill - Seems to post in thread for the appearance of being present, without any solid analysis. Weird vote on WGEURTZ and weird apology, which signifies guilt. Avoiding the game while playing others, and gives no indication of why.

CES - Lacks presence. Isn't scumhunting in early to mid day. Most recent votes are bad. Trying hard to avoid Tchill wagon, doesn't comment on the fact Tchill is avoiding the thread pretty hard.

LQ - Scum for omgusing Shea, and developing a read on him without being proactive. Instead he was being reactive, and isn't trying to sort him. He also misses important questions and does not try to answer them. His votes don't make sense.

[LQ > CES > Tchill > Eddie]

Vote: LQ

Why do I feel weird about the fact that you have the same Scum reads as most people? I mean, you were a replacement. Usually replacements see things in a different light.

I reread LQ. Saw a few things I didn't like. Saw thinga that seemed town too though. On balance I would still rather do a screenplay lynch today. I do need some help with the buddies if CES isn't one of them though.

[Llamarble]

Oh I forgot I Q+ed all that stuff. First couple were scummy. Liked "already considered postie coaching." Didn't like inconsistent methhodologies thing. Liked some stuff I didn't q+

[Llamarble]

I reread LQ. Saw a few things I didn't like. Saw thinga that seemed town too though. On balance I would still rather do a screenplay lynch today. I do need some help with the buddies if CES isn't one of them though.

Now you are starting piss me off.
You can’t quote some posts without commentary and say done.
And
There are no buddies. Think about that for a minute.

Having some RSI problems so im phoneposting.
CES can still be a buddy. Or ad or postie or marquis, even Eddie. I just don't have ones I am thrilled with.

[Llamarble]

Llamarble, look into WGEURTZ / Davsto and talk to me about the slot.

Huh, it would seem that that slot is scum. Irritating. Now I have to think about whether I'd rather lynch them or Srceen.
But probably still Srceen? Buddy possibility is solid anyway.

[Llamarble]

I'm not as ready to welcome Davsto to the towny pile as TSQ, I think he would be about as good a competing wagon as GE.

Yeah I kinda forgot about this; hadn't looked at him in a while.
That being said, I think I actually feel better about Srceenflip than before replacement happened, so I think all we're waiting for now is some promised Postie Post of Great Importance. Please do it soon, this day is in diminishing returns.

[Llamarble]

Having davsto scum makes me less worried though, because I was running out of folks if Eddie and LQ were both town.
I guess I should look teamwise at Davsto Srceen CES AD stuffs.

[Llamarble]

I actually like Gamma's switch to LQ. I don't agree with it really, but I like the epiphany 'it dawned on me' thing and "this is OBVIOUSLY forced" thing. Shows plenty of rawr that I'd want from town and wouldn't particularly expect from scum gamma unless TChillscum but Tchillscum + gammascum = gammabussing to a significant extent and means lynching Tchill slot good anyway.

Can we slow down pretty please

Liked this reply to my long-predict from Gamma and I think it was Dunnstral who also had a 'slow down' reply. It felt town coming from those two.

pedit:
I don't see anything particularly difficult to fake in the WGE+Davsto ISO; a substantial chunk of their content comes from a pregame "Postie might pick scum" assessment and FOS Tchill but target Gamma / LQ feels good from a TChill buddy.

[Llamarble]

I think Davsto is an acceptable (maybe superior?) alternative to CES tomorrow in the event of a Tchill red flip.

I didn't like this post at all:

VOTE: wgeurts

yeah i should have took my vote off postie apologies for that.

VOTE: wgeurts

yeah i should have took my vote off postie apologies for that.

Uh this vote is pretty bad, I don't know why you're voting a slot that hasn't posted right now?

You seem off this game now, you seem timid compared to other games

I looked a little harder.

This is the only Tchill13 post within those 200 posts.
The other is your response to it.

So this one post was enough for you to change completely how you feel on Tchill13.
And then later you do what you just complained to him for doing. Voting inactive slot. Not only that you push his activity as AI then admit you can’t prove it.

@Dunn

- Link me some games that show Tchill has a meta of lurking as scum?

Hm, I actually can't find any

There's still the matter of his actual posting looking different to where he is town, though

I'm kind of eyeing Cogito Ergo Sum and wondering if they're white knighting/defending scum and wondering if it's better to just go for them instead

After not being able to back those claims up you move on to a different claim that can’t be backed up.

Llamalarmbells!

[Llamarble]

Asking questions in general is fine; it's the way you did these ones. Not so much trying to help others see the light as preying on apparent inconsistencies.
To be fair it would be worse if he were the other wagon or something.

Of course I have doubts. There are 3 scum in a 15 player game. I am good at mafia, but cautiously optimistic is about the best I can be unless the dayplay goes AWESOME from town.

[Llamarble]

We've discussed it this game, but doubt is part of mafia. If we started every sentence with maybe, it would get annoying after a while. I've certainly considered the possibility of you being town; I spent plenty of time looking into LQ and Eddie and others. Even unvoted for a while. If you want us to unvote you, give us something compelling, show us a better way forward. If you're town, it usually shows eventually.

[Llamarble]

I think I need to withdraw for tonight, I don't think investing more time is helping right now.

[Llamarble]

I agree that Eddie is obvscum, I just suspect he has a town role PM.

[Llamarble]

I'm not averse to being convinced though, so show us what you've got!

[Llamarble]

Null by not having looked in a while, but he sure is lurky.

[Llamarble]

Lol.
Now I'm going to have to read him all over again ; ;
I do have to admit I've made more of a scumcase against him than I have against anybody else, even though I haven't really managed to believe in it.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, pretty sure I've cased harder against Eddie than I have against anyone. I'll just pile this all here for companion reading to whatever Postie makes, and we can decide if it's enough to be worth

mislynching Eddie instead of lynching scum screen

pursuing

Eddie's play feels like he doesn't know what town is supposed to do and he's trying to mimic that.
Which I guess is what scum does, so voting him is allowed.
We haven't seen any thoughts about the game, just some seemingly random townreads that aren't explained.
"Let's make a 6 person townblock even though I don't have any idea what's going on!"
The closest thing to scumhunting is where he says LQ and Tchill and I are all scum together (which makes negative sense), but he isn't even voting any of us, he's voting Gamma for some reason. Who's left in your townblock now that LQ and I are scumpicks?

All he asks about is finding out what other people's reads are, in theory so he can organize a town block.
Normally, people who care about what direction the day is going, who try and plan to get the votes figured out without having something in mind they want to do with those votes they are recruiting, those are the things scum care about discovering. Put differently, town want to find scum. Scum want to figure out what town are going to do so they can steer it not to hurt them.
So yeah, headpiking Eddie would be just fine. After LQ and TChill though I think.

CES lamenting the non-continuity is harmless but we are going to need more from him. As things stand, I would still have him in lylo-autolynch territory for being a difficult to read good player.

I hadn't looked at LQ recently, so I put them in the null zone in that list a while ago.

You're null/town in my book and I hit the "f- it" button Friday. I need new players to come in and actually DO something instead of seeing the same names each. And every. PAGE. We're hitting wall upon wall of just UGH and I'm growing apathetic tbh. If you wanna keep the guns on, keep at it. Gonna be over here playing paddle ball.

10 players in this game have 25 or more posts. AD has 18 but I'd say his participation is just fine.
There is plenty to look at. You just aren't, so far as we can tell. Scum feeling defeated much?

It does. However, Tchill is still on Postie and that player (Tchill) REEKS of scum imo.

What happened to this, by the way?
???

Get your act together. Get your reads in a lined up, orderly fashion, and we can chat. This day to day, whip lash, flip-a-zoo, shifting sands reads game isn't gonna keep flying with me when I have to keep figuring out who all you have as town and scum. If tomorrow is different AGAIN, I might need a table flip gif. Cause right now, this is where I am

I'm giving a complete readslist on a regular basis; my reads ARE in a lined up orderly fashion.
I can't help that my reads change as I read and reread the game.
This kind of post is why you're in the D1 lynchpool though.
Keeping careful track of everyones' reads is what scum do because they need to figure out what mislynch to pursue.
Why is "figuring out who all you have as town and scum" so important to you?
There's so much information in this game you can use to figure out who got which role PMs; by focusing on the information scum wants and not paying much attention to the things towns normally care about (you know, identifying and lynching scum), you are practically BEGGING us to lynch you.
Reads.
Reasons.

I still don't know what to make of Eddie saying Tchill "REEKS" of scum but showing no interest in pursuing that avenue.
I bet he'll randomly show up and hammer and cement himself as the D2 lynch or something.

Eddie is classically scummy. He was also classically scummy in the last game I played with him, where Chesskid vigged him and he flipped scum. He was also my buddy, actually, after my alignment changed after D1 (bonus: you can see how much more awesome I am before I become scum - half of my ISO is from the 2 days between when I replace in and when my alignment changes). AD was in that game, along with Chesskid. They think he's different here; I'm not sure I see it. It was TBD mafia by the way.

That is the reason that assuming you are town I think your wagon is town.
Without assuming you are town, it looks like a wagon of lots of town voting for scum, which has also been known to happen.

Eddie being so tuned into all the reads on him is just funny, like I didn't know it was possible to play exclusively to scum wincon so hard and not be obvscum.

Am I LQ's top scumread now? Because that is pretty funny too. I've been mercurial, sure, but I also think me OBSESSIVELY rechecking my reads, literally waking up at night paranoid about someone who has zero chance of getting lynched today, trying to subdue any threat to a town win, even several game days out, makes me obvtown on a special level.

[Llamarble]

Mm, I suppose fleshing out whole scum teams would be a good next step, given where we are in the day, looking for associatives and stuff.
Like, with redflip from Screen, who is full scumteam? With greenflip, who is full scumteam? Etc.
But I'm going to bed now.

If you can tell me compelling buddies for Eddie btw, Postie, that'll help you convince me as well.

[Llamarble]

I like your list Ran; I would write something similar if giving an updated one (CES a bit lower since I don't think sticking nsck out as scum is difficult for him, at least to the extent done here).

Dan's 1144 is a good post, but in this town hunt I still say he is certainly less town than most still. But giving both Eddie and LQ townreads when as scum they need to be mislynched favors him. While possible, it doesn't especially strike me as him protecting eddiebuddy or lqbuddy either.

Eddie, why don't you seem to have much interest (aside from not you) in who eats rope today?

I don't get screen "hard town"

[Llamarble]

Agree. Dan (and CES, but differently) will rarely be in town piles for me. Good players with Town games too similar to their scum games. So they usually live in the "is town going in wrong direction? Then these guys are likely responsible" pile. Hoopla is like that too. Lynch real scumreads first but give these players priority as lylo nears. If they haven't helped town win the game by then they have to go.

[Llamarble]

If we want to have a second wagon today I think I would like it to be on Davsto. Marquis isn't here; AD and CES aren't scummy enough, LQ and Eddie I and others have reservations about or townreads on. But Srceen is fine for today. Davsto is more an absence of towniness read.

[Llamarble]

In line with earlier posts about Postie playing this game the way I would play it as scum (strong earlygame cuz easiest time for scum content, then whiteknight someone gamma because that's pretty easy to look good doing as scum, then push a lynchbait like Eddie because the case literally writes itself I couldn't even help casemaking against him and I think he's probably town), I went all out in team mafia 2 white flag trying to save a scummy lurker buddy (It was TSQ wasn't it heh) from getting lynched, then ended up eating rope for it (thanks to CES and to Zachtown not following expected pattern at the crucial time). And my subconscious yelled really loud about Postie for a while too :3

But as Ran says, that possibility reinforces Screen for today.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I really like how this game is going; I think we're well set up to win even if the first day or two don't go how we hope. We've got:
Llamarble
TSQ
Ran
For supertowns who will probably eat first 3 NKs and I trust you two to lead town well if I go first
Gamma
Dunnstral
NSG
Lycan
For players who haven't cemented themselves to the degree of the Three (partly due to activity disparity) but are making a good contribution and are fairly strong probtowns.
LQ
Eddie
Are the lynchbaity ones, the ones who might get lynched even if they're town, but people are acknowledging that they have some scumminess while also acknowledging they are the type we might mislynch if we're gonna mislynch people. That's a good place for them to be in.
AD
Postie
CES
The good but hard to read players; whichever of them is town will help town a lot with winning, but the word is out - these players are dangerous and town isn't going to leave them alone to endgame or underestimate them.
Marquis
Davsto
Original Lurkers (though Davsto isn't a lurker anymore) who lack major towntells. There is still hope for redemption but as things are they'll deservedly probably spend quite a bit of time in trouble and hopefully town will come to correct conclusion on them.
Screenplay
Our first lynch; neither he nor his predecessor have really towned. I believe in the red flip.
But even if it doesn't come, I believe in this town to win the game, this is a well put together town.
Guessing 1 scum in Original Lurkers and 1 in the Good Hardreads, but regardless I am happy and I think it's time to

=========[]

[Llamarble]

Took a look at NSG, she is like Davsto (some reads and some reasons but nothing megatown).
But I think she shows a bit more investment than Davsto does.
Couple of the ones I liked.
Trying to make people who are getting it wrong get it right.
Struggling to read lynchbait with concern about direction lynchbait can send town.
"Instinctually doesn't feel like the kind of thing scum would even think to fake." Is good stuff too.

I'm willing to call Lycan's 430 town. I understand a couple of reservations people have with it, (6 scum reads, CES not being mentioned etc.) but it looks, feels, and has meaty arguments that flow and read town.

could you go into more depth specifically about what makes it town from you? the same question goes out to others who expressed the same opinion because i feel like townreading that post is a mistake and it's a mistake that i definitely would have made in the past, where just because a post looks like it's contributing a lot and people add to the discussion overall, that makes it town. i'm not saying that's what you're thinking but i don't see much else of a reason to townread it, and i think that the reality of the situation is that the inconsistencies between 225 and 430 are consequential enough to say that one of the two was faked / wasn't made coming from a town perspective.


i'm having trouble getting a solid read on quick. on an objective level i'd say he's been scummy, but i keep wondering how much of that comes from playstyle and mathdino says that he's town for sure. i also get the gut feeling that this is one of those games where town is actually on track when it comes to finding scum but ends up getting distracted by the townies who do outrageous things and end up getting lynched (you can all probably can think of a game like this), and quick feels like he might be that outrageous townie.

@postie, if you're interested i was townreading eddie earlier on for this:

by the way, anyone else feel like 179 is a really weird thought? it's hard to put into words – it kind of feels like a pointless thing to say / comment on, maybe.

I was wondering who else was going to pick up on that.

the fact that he noticed this, didn't make a post about it and then made this comment about it just instinctually doesn't feel like the kind of thing scum would even think to fake. granted, there's always the chance that it wasn't faked and eddie could still be scum – scum still notice inconsistencies or a really weird tone even if they know that someone is town (and perhaps especially if they know that it's coming from their buddy). there's also the chance that i'm underselling eddie's scumgame, which i'm unfamiliar with.

on a reread of his iso perhaps this is too minor to justify more than a slight townlean, but i'm still not convinced on him being scum and i still think there are far more likely scum candidates.

So I am good with keeping her in middle of the probtown category; certainly not a "never-lynch" since giving some reads and reactions and reasons, even if pretty nice ones, can be fakeable and I'm unfamiliar with her scum-prowess.

[Llamarble]

The scum are [Screenplay > Marqus > Postie].

I think this is The Answer, yarr.
*dances*

[Llamarble]

Mm.
Possible!
Postie and LQ being the ones who have shown some energy to try and do something about the Srceen lynch.
We should probably end the day!

[Llamarble]

*shakes around*
What will he flipppp

[Llamarble]

Those overreactions still give a little Marquis + gamma paranoia heh.