White Flag - TM2020

[Dannflor]

Dann talk to me about Espeon. I don't think you took his play fairly into consideration nor did you really consider what people around him were saying. I don't really appreciate you calling the read on you paranoia when your play here isn't exactly obv town (according to my team so it's not just me) I feel like you use Eddie to push your agenda and the amount of emphasis you put into townreading me through the days felt slimy. I don't know if it's a playstyle difference but when someone thinks I'm scum I kinda don't care and continue to solve the game rather than trying to list reasons why I'm town.

As I said earlier I don't expect you to be lynched today and you probably never will be if I die and I would like to lynch the best person to reduce team possibilities which I've already discussed. Like it doesn't make sense to me that you're getting bent out of shape about your hypothetical lynch next day phase when we could end the game today or you're night killed. I think my proposed line of lunches hits at least 1 scum so sorry not sorry about having a strategy to win the game.

I don't want to degrade it as paranoia, which is why I was asking for you to elaborate on it more. That's just how I feel about it from my perspective.

Why does me town reading you feel slimy? Do you not think I should have such strong a town read? I put about the same amount of emphasis or more on my Auro town read. I also did so with Dunnstral when you guys were fighting. I was actually had some minor doubts on you before I had Ank/Tom weigh in and then saw that Pops was fully invested in this game. That was about the time I decided you were lock town. While that's still my strongest feeling, I also feel a need to engage with you on this because you scum reading me gives me doubts—although small—on your alignment. And I don't want to lose to you. Generally, if people think I'm scum I try to kinda not care too! But your trajectory on me confuses me and that gives me pause, and I need to be as confident as possible on you. To be clear, I'm not getting bent out of shape about me being the hypothetical lynch next day phase. I'm frustrated by you thinking that's an optimal plan because well, I think it's a very bad plan and if you're town I want you on my side. It's less about that and more about making sure you're not just pushing this so you can lynch me in endgame/whatever else.

Will you expand on what your team's concerns are? Pops' read in particular I would be interested in.

Regarding the Espeonage lynch, maybe I wasn't entirely fair. But I saw someone pushing 4/5 of my strongest town reads, and I thought that had to go. By the end of the day I was less sure he would flip scum, but decided it was probably still ++EV to lynch him and I think there was part of me trying to make up for the indecisiveness of D1.

[Dannflor]

from EC in response to you Cheeky:

A: Espeons final push was saying he preferred Hop to Dann. So that's BS. ((unsure what this is actually referring to -Dann))

B: What if I said lynch X -> Cheeky -> Dann? Would you be okay with that? Saying it "clears up teams" is BS because if you find Dann as town (which I, Dann, am I trying to make you realize at this point) then that clears up the teams just as well. You can't lynch in ever world. Implying I'm scummy for being discontent with you openly pushing for Dann's chain lynch is wild.

[Dannflor]

Can people talk to me on why they town read Dong?

[Dannflor]

Auro, Ank is asking you if there's anything she should look into specifically

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, can you go into specifically what your complete thoughts on Dong are?

[Dannflor]

TW has been MIA and Ank has been mostly preoccupied, but I’ll try to see where they’re at.

I’ll respond to the rest when I get home

[Dannflor]

Ank says her VCA doesn't work well when she doesn't already have a gamestate read to work off of, and she hasn't even read a lot of the game.

I think that's why she was asking you what would be the best points to look at.

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, what is your read on Auro independent of me?

[Dannflor]

Ank says that independently she thinks Hop is most likely to flip scum

@Auro

[Dannflor]

eddie is currently working on hard solving this game

I will also be

but I need food first

[Dannflor]

Implying I'm scummy for being discontent with you openly pushing for Dann's chain lynch is wild.

Eddie use your scumhunting powers, indignation is fruitless.

He used his scum hunting powers to dunk on the Open

[Dannflor]

Ok so far Pops hasn't read all the game but she has a spicy scum read on Cephrir and she berated me for being a dick to/scumspecting Dunnstral.
She used a lot of words to reason the Cephrir scumread that looked very convincing to me.

Even if this is no longer true, can you paraphrase Pops' scum case on Ceph?

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, is there a reason scum!me being coached by Eddie doesn't just kill you over Dunn?

I felt like you kept reinforcing me as a townread after your initial thoughts which felt unnessesary. Like after saying I was town a couple of times you then made pops and I work on the game just to townread us again, seems OTT.

My team is a little over the top. Seriously, you should see our Discord over this event. We quadruple-check our town reads like every other day and it can be silly. EC admits he does this personally to a fault sometimes. I know Ank does this a lot. I've grown to do it more and more as I've become more experienced. Basically, each time I stated you were town probably coincided with us revisiting you and being like... Could we be wrong here? Could she be scum? And going back over everything, double checking, and then being more confident than we were before. After Pops had flipped red in the Open, EC wanted Pops' thoughts specifically just because he thought it would be telling about your alignment. yeah, we were already town reading you, but in the words of Espeonage, "reads are fallible." After that, we were most sure you were town as we'd ever been, and made that clear in thread.

I guess it's not as transparent since a lot of it happens over time in our discord, but there has been so much reevaluating done even with my strong town reads. We've even questioned Auro quite a bit!

I work in strange ways. I'd like to think if we both made it to lylo we'd be smart enough to figure out what that meant. Of course I'm going to scumread you after Espeon flips town and the next two lynches you suggest are LHF hence I don't mind lynching them because if you mislynch to lylo then you're obviously scum.

Currently, something that worries me is if I lead a mislynch today, Cephrir gets NKed (seems to fit the pattern of calm collected townies getting killed, see KittyMo and Dunnstral), and then you lead a mislynch on me. But obviously talking about this in advance probably isn't going to be productive. And it's possible I'm worrying for nothing.

With Espeonage... I did start to feel he could be town very late in the day. When he voted Hopkirk I was like... and was so so close to switching to Gobble end of day yesterday. Obviously none of this showed up in the thread so I could just be making it up. But it's the truth. EC had some similar suspicions, and even rereading tonight said that he regrets being so confident in scum reading Espeonage.

However, I don't regret lynching Espeonage. I mean I regret it in the sense of "I wish we lynched scum instead," but I don't think it was a *bad* lynch. It's the same reason why me gunning for more "LHF" today is also optimal in my opinion. EC and co. have started going through the list of possible teams

Spoiler: teams myself excluded obviously

BB FF
BB Cheeky
BB Auro
BB Ceph
BB Hop
BB Dong
BB Gobble
FF Cheeky
FF Auro
FF Ceph
FF Hop
FF Dong
FF Gobble
Cheeky Auro
Cheeky Ceph
Cheeky Hop
Cheeky Dong
Cheeky Gobble
Auro Ceph
Auro Hop
Auro Dong
Auro Gobble
Ceph Hop
Ceph Dong
Ceph Gobble
Hop Dong
Hop Gobble
Dong Gobble

and methodically removing ones that we just don't think are possible by finding that one post we just don't think is SvS. We've cut it down a fair bit at this point. We have BB with only like 3 possible teams IIRC (I'll show more work on this later). However, this kind of brute game solve becomes exponentially easier with another town lynch and NK. And that's why Eddie Cane killed pisskop or Elsa without hesitation in the Open despite town leaning one of them because it just made the game easier. He was still for killing Espeonage after he town spewed a bit because killing people who have been wrong the whole game (or have a

pure mechanical game solve

of likely 4 town) is good for removing paranoia late game, even if they flip town. Late game is when the game gets so much easier from a scumhunting perspective because there's simply less options, especially in White Flag.

Similarly, this reasoning is why I think killing Dong or Turkey is the right choice today even independent of reads. Killing LHF earlier rather than later leads to town actually being able to solve later on. There's also the added bonus of, hey, there's a not too bad chance we hit scum too. Last Team Mafia WF town won in MyLo because only the better players were alive.

Eddie also wants to explicitly point out that in WF specifically, the game is very winnable in f5. It's harder in normal setups because scum can bus. Here, they can only pretend to bus. While obviously I would like to lynch scum today, and I very much plan to, I also want to make sure my lynched secure a good f5 if it comes to that. Like, imagine an f5 with you, me, esp, dong, gobble? I feel like the odds are stacked against us in that scenario.

I'm explaining all this to you because I very much think you're town (OTT yes I know) and I want you to be able to better understand where me and my team are coming from this game. I think you see me pushing for LHF without quite understanding what our strategy is here.

But that all doesn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things. I really do want to try hard this weekend and try to get a scum lynch. I think this game is totally solvable. It's harder with 9 players instead of 7, but certainly possible. I've already started cutting down on teams, and I'm gonna shut up and do some work on that after this.

As far as Ank and Tom's reads go:

TW is still very confident on Auro!town. Wants to lynch Cheeky.

Ank thinks BBmolla is town, thinks Hopkirk is scum, and doesn't have a good read on Cheeky

Honestly, I think they just came in and saw #2343 and didn't understand where you were coming from. I have a better idea of where you're coming from and my town read isn't really shaken. EC has had some moments of wanting to yolo-lynch you and saying his town read has completely vanished, but I hashed it out with him and he thinks it's mostly just a paranoia scum read and that you're more town than not. idk why I'm telling you this but I figured you might want to know where we all stand on you. It doesn't really matter though because I get final say.

Anyway. That's the last post I'm gonna do on the me/you dichotomy or your read on me or whatever. Time to focus on other things.

[Dannflor]

Dann/Eddie what are you thoughts on gobbles?

I think these posts are more likely to come from a town!Gobble than a scum!Gobble:

I’m on my lunch break now
If I die Cheeky/Dann looks really bad with NSG scum flip. I think it would make BBmolla town too

You called yourself low hanging fruit earlier. Why do you think you have a chance of dying?

If NSG flips scum I think it makes me fairly obviously town

since I’ve been saying that for a long time

I’m on my lunch break now

If I die

Cheeky/Dann looks really bad with NSG scum flip. I think it would make BBmolla town too

They're kinda ridiculous and I'd expect scum to have more subtlety in the bus to town cred equation.

He might still be a good lynch depending on how many teams he fits into. But as of right now I'm not feeling too hot about it. Currently, just based on my reads I'm looking in the circle of [Dong, FF, Hopkirk] for scum

[Dannflor]

What does everyone think about this? BBmolla/Gobble has been a proposed team thrown around a lot but the posts below make it seem unlikely? Not impossible but maybe improbable.

Spoiler: bb/gobble

If you think Dong is 'pretty blatant scum' I'd prefer that you pushed that lynch over policy voting nsg

I'd rather do that than get to LYLO and have NSG not fucking posted all game because "sorry guys other games required attention."

whoever said lynching lurkers day 1 is a bad idea is wrong, everything I've ever experienced has shown proof of the opposite.

you can't read someone if they have no content to get a read from and that only gets worse as time goes on

BBmolla is the mafia commentator we have sorely missed.

I will look over this game tonight

Good vote tho Cheeky if I’m wrong I’ll sheep you tomorrow 100%

VOTE: Gobble

If you’re right we win

If you’re wrong you get no say in tomorrow’s lynch Auro

Yes I’m bussing Dong come back

[Dannflor]

Ok. I am caught up. I don't think I am actually going to wall anything, I'm just going to give reads.

Town
KittyMo
Auro
Dann
Dunn
Cephrir
Hopkirk
Espeonage
Joan of Arc
DongEmpire
Formerfish
Wgeurts
NSG
Scum

You can view the Joan of Arc line as the official null line because I have no read on that slot and it is odd that others do have a read on that slot when it has two posts with no content.

Principally, the things that I am most suspect about are...

Dunn being able to extrapolate so much from a Joan of Arc vote on me. I feel like he is projecting and has entered the Death Spiral to get me killed.
NSG stating that Wgeurts was one of the three people in her town block and then not moving her vote despite having ample to time to post several more times after that fact.
Dongempire backing off Cephrir seemed like he realized he went down the wrong path trying to get people to scumread Cephrir. I also feel like Hopkirk is reaching with some of his analysis (particular when it comes to me), but he is very funny so I will townread him to keep him around longer.

I want to vote NSG because she is playing into her scum meta that I saw in Alternative 9P. I find it odd that no one else is commenting on that. It seemed like it was common knowledge across the site since other payers in that game also made that observation.

VOTE: Dongempire

EC brought something up about this post, Ank and I ended up agreeing. Basically, Gobble does not put partner!nsg in the bottom reads spot and then vote partner!dong because that's obviously going to draw attention. I think this completely strikes dong/gobble as a team which was something I was considering earlier this day phase. I don't think it makes sense to so blatantly avoid bussing NSG only to vote your less scum read partner? If Gobble was TMIing with his reads he probably would have at least been consistent with it.

[Dannflor]

Oh Duck also thinks BBmolla is town, I forgot to mention that earlier. Ankamius' tentative team solve is Hopkirk/FF.

[Dannflor]

Ankamius doesn't generally like Dong but also really doesn't think their hammer on nsg feels like they know nsg is scum

[Dannflor]

their hammer on nsg feels like they know nsg is scum

This is probably the only thing that gives me pause on Dong. But also EC still kinda wants him just to be rid of him before LyLo.

[Dannflor]

I was going to wall again, but Im high and feel a little wordy and like things might not flow if i bunched everything together. Enjoy this next few hours postings.

despite what I've said I don't actually want to lynch nsg day 1, I was just hoping wagoning her would be effective in getting her to play and ehhhhhh

I've been thinking about this a little bit. If NSGs team is pulling her to other games where they need help do you think that they would do that with her as scum or as town? If she is scum then wouldn't her team make shes in here making noise so she doesnt take this heat? If she is town then they probably assume that they can borrow her for the time being with the idea that she can come in here and town it up when she needs to.

This is all kinda working under the idea that we are incapable of finding scum on our own and that we need her to come save us.

I think that we have a good deal of info going into this first lynch and that we will have a better understanding of the game state when we see a few flips.

I still do have problems with FF and it mostly boils down to stuff like this D1. I don't really think scum falls into either the hard-defending (Cheeky), or hard pushing (Cephrir) camps of the NSG lynch. Rather I think they'd be closer to soft defending or soft bussing. And FF kinda has both in his ISO.

[Dannflor]

Sorry BB.

VOTE: BBmolla

VOTE: BB

fine

VOTE: bb

If you guys won't go NSG and I can't interest anyone in a Dong lynch I can vote BB.

VOTE: Bb

Sure, tomorrow we can have a better discussion.

VOTE: BB
L1 i think

I think the last 3 votes on this flash wagon have aren't SvS. The wagon was on FF. There's no point to joining a flash wagon on your buddy knowing that NSG is the third and is definitely getting flipped before LyLo. It's better to stay quiet here as scum if BB is scum, which I think eliminates BB/FF, BB/Dong, and BB/Cephrir. BB/Cheeky could possibly be a thing but it's very unlikely Cheeky would start that wagon there, aside from my independent town read. Overall, I'm starting to think there's very few teams BB can actually fit into?

[Dannflor]

BB/Auro
BB/Hopkirk

BB/Cheeky
BB/Gobble

I think the bottom two are pretty unlikely for reasons already mentioned, but I'd like others to weigh in on those specifically. As for the top two, does anyone see anything that discounts those two outside of independent reads? I'm wondering if we can get close enough to pseudo clear BBmolla, or at least narrow down his teams to one or two possibilities.

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Hopkirk

[Dannflor]

I'm actually pretty unsure who Gobble's partner is if he's scum? BB/Hopkirk both seem unlikely based on votes. Dong probably not. Cheeky probably not.

I guess they could be fake busses and yadda yadda WIFOM but the timing makes it suspect.

[Dannflor]

The following post is from EC:

Spoiler: Team Set 1

BB Cheeky
BB Auro
BB Hop
BB Gobble
FF Ceph
FF Hop
FF Dong
FF Goble
Cheeky Auro
Cheeky Ceph
Cheeky Hop
Cheek Dong
Cheeky Goble
Auro Hop
Auro Dong
Auro Goble
Ceph Hop
Ceph Goble
Hop Dong
Hop Goble
Dong Goble

BB - 4
FF - 4
Ceph - 4
Auro - 5
Dong - 5
Cheeky - 6
Goble - 6
Hop - 7

Spoiler: Team Set 2

BB Cheeky
BB Auro
BB Hop
FF Hop
FF Dong
FF Goble
Cheeky Hop
Cheeky Goble
Auro Hop
Auro Dong
Auro Goble
Ceph Hop
Ceph Goble
Hop Dong
Hop Goble

FF/Ceph is unlikely
BB/Goble is unlikely
Cheeky/Auro is unlikely
Cheeky/Ceph is unlikely
Cheeky/Dong is unlikely
Dong/Goble is unlikely

with those removed from rates, its
BB - 3
FF - 3
Ceph - 2
Auro - 4
Dong - 3
Cheeky - 3
Goble - 4
Hop - 7

I'm going to try to make this succinct so that it's easier for Dann to paraphrase. The open is over, meaning this game now gets half of my attention. So feel free to ask me questions.

1.

Overall, I think the first dataset is more useful. I have reasons for eliminating all the teams I did, and I'm confident in those reasons. This type of solving is something I've been trying out and it's done *independently* of my reads. I look for interactions that are never S/S one or two way. This punishes lower activity people, but this strat usually compliments killing lurkers anyway.

2.

The second dataset removes several teams I've marked as unlikely, but aren't completely ruled out. They should still be considered in the total, but I think it's mentioning they're considered lower priority teams. If you have any questions about why I ruled out any one team, go ahead and ask. I have specific posts and/or notes marked.

3.

I would have rathered Dann did not post any of what he did from me on the last page, but I didn't indicate that so oh well. It just means this solving must be cut short and I can't wait until tomorrow like I wanted. Scum know what we're looking for now, and we probably die tonight if we miss.

4.

Now for the fun stuff! This is WF; we don't need both scum. Thus, it is possible to cover all teams in 3 lynches assuming you can take Dann as town. At least, we can get very close. Imagine Hop is the lynch and flips town (the former I think is likely, the latter unlikely). That leaves 14 teams, excluding whoever the NK is if its not Dann.

After, say we lynch Gobble or Cheeky. Gobble has 6 teams, as does Cheeky. Let's say Gobble based on my current reads. If he flips town, there are then 8 remaining teams. This excludes someone else getting night killed. In the worst case scenario Ceph gets NKed, who at this point only has FF and Cheeky as viable partners and they're both unlikely pairings.

FF's only partner is Dong after all this. That is close to a perfect solve! Congratz! Unless you think BB/Auro, Cheeky/BB, or Cheeky/Auro are exactly the team, we can just lynch Dong as this point and win. This is even closer to a perfect solve if the NK is someone else or if I can find more teams to remove. But it got posted early so oops.

5.

Now for reads! Reads are kept completely separate from this. However, they are used in tandem. More forum mafia players don't acknowledge their reads are typically not above random by much if at all, often even below. This system is a good check to balance out these reads. If you're looking in likely worlds, the most likely scum is clearly painted out. If you disagree or have questions about any eliminations I've done, or if you want to suggest one, please ask or input. Please note that I read for theater and would not remove a lot of the things some of you probably would. Call me over paranoid if you must.

6.

Okay NOW it's time for reads. Based on mine and Dann's reads, I think Ceph, BB, Auro, and Cheeky are all pretty solidly town. This is why in that f5 I would kill Dong despite Auro technically having more team possibilities. I can easily be wrong on a town read, but this is WF. I don't need to correctly scum read both scum. Me being aggressively wrong on two strong town reads is very rare. In a game where I'm invested, it is non existant. My most confident reads so far have been Dunn and Kitty town, and NSG scum. Espeonage was a hiccup but not enough of one to tell me I'm somehow wrong on both scum. Overall, I'm not intensely worried about this game.

7.

ank is spicy.

8.

OKAY NOW THE BEST PART OF ALL: IGNORING FULL SOLVING, HOW DOES THIS COALESCE WITH MY OWN READS?

This is the section that adjusts with reads as we move on with the game.

Cephrir --- Independently very town. I got this feeling consistently on rereading. His only potential partners are Hop, Gobble, Cheeky (unlikely), FF (unlikely). If there was a Hop town flip, there's really no reason I'd ever reconsider, because Gobble fits in way more worlds, and Cheeky and FF are not only both independently townie but also unlikely partners.

BBmolla --- Independently probably just town. If there's a Hop town flip, his partners are Auro, Cheeky, and an unlikely Turkey. This again indicates town. I town read most of his potential pariings and him being scum requires me being wrong on two strong town reads.

FF --- His team possibilities with Hop, Dong, and Gobble is not a great look. However, still sticking to a town lean individually. Unlikely Ceph pairing is a thing too.

Auro --- Again, pairings aren't great, as with FF. Townie independently. Duck has a confident town read here. Still a town lean.

Cheeky --- Lots of pairings. Some pinging posts. Overall, more town than not. I think Pops can spew this slot's alignment. More importantly, I can find this slot's alignment in a LyLo situation if that nightmare ever comes to fruition.

Of the 3 people I'm still considering killing today (Hop, Dong, Gobble), Hop has not had meaningful enough interactions in my opinion to kill of pairings much.

Gobble had a TMI-level reads post Day 1 (Dann quoted this earlier) if my reads are right, lol. Not sure if town!him is capable of having reads that good? No offense. I don't actually know him that well so I don't mean this to be offensive. Scum-lean. Could die.

Hop is the best lynch overall in terms of solving. Fits with the most people, has scum equity, etc. The one down side to this lynch is that if he's town he's more likely to be able to solve well than Dong, and I value his opinion more (again no offense to Dong). So, this is a tough decision.

Dong is scummy, but has overall less potential partners. Fits my lynch scummy lurkers early policy. Could die.

This whole thing would have been better if we had an extra day for uninfluenced data and a NK. Might have even gotten a perfect solve. But oh well. Like I said, not too too worried about this game.

[Dannflor]

addendums:

1. EC reread 80% of the game to post this.
2. He is excited for Hop and FF to be less busy IRL and see their catchups.

[Dannflor]

yeah we really need more people playing

particularly FF/Hopkirk but everyone would be nice

[Dannflor]

checking some things

Auro, what's your Cheeky read at?

[Dannflor]

Dann, your team should discuss and come to a conclusion. Seems like Eddie wants Dong dead, Ank Hopkirk, and tw Cheeky.

I'm not sure what I'd want Ank to specifically look at in the game. Activity levels from a lot of suspect slots have been low.

We’re pretty settled on Hopkirk... for right now. That might change as people catch up.

Duck hasn’t had time to read as much so he’s really only given passing thoughts.

[Dannflor]

They're kinda ridiculous and I'd expect scum to have more subtlety in the bus to town cred equation

Not Gobble

Also, you quoted BB votes on Gobble to discount BB+Gobble team, that's the classic white flag Gambit.

Molla might be a better lynch than Gobble btw.

That’s why the team isn’t completely ruled out

[Dannflor]

Dann, I'd like you and your team to read any of Gob's towngames, and tell me if his play here is any similar.

For example, his ISO here is short: viewtopic.php?p=11553549&user_select%5B ... #p11553549

But there's clear gamesolving, questioning, etc. which isn't present at all in this game.

Um... Auro you linked this game.

[Dannflor]

This probably wasn't the answer you're looking for, but looking at both scum and town games from him, it looks like there is more gamesolvy questioning in his scum games, at least on the surface level.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=80583&user_select[]=33140
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=80331&user_select[]=33140

I looked at those two games specifically. That said, I don't put a lot of stock into cold meta.

[Dannflor]

Dong, what makes Auro scummier than your other suspects?

Also, why have you cleared Cheeky suddenly?

[Dannflor]

I'm really confused where Dong's Cheeky read went

[Dannflor]

Auro, how are you reading Dong

[Dannflor]

Hey Dong, I'm starting to think you might be town.

Assume I'm town, do you think an Auro/Gobble pair is likely? Or an Auro/Cheeky?

[Dannflor]

And to add on to that, do you have concerns about me game-state read aside?

[Dannflor]

To clarify, i dont think the interactions you and auro had were organic. Early game there were so little to speak of its not worth mentioning and right now it feels like you're asking questions you know the answers to.

Right now I'm asking Auro some maybe-obvious questions because I actually have a little bit of paranoia there. Not enough to make me really doubt my read but I like to double check things.

Early game... IDK I like to think my interactions would be more subtle with a buddy than strong arming people off the Auro wagon early game as I did. I understand how that could seem suspicious but I don't know how it fits into any larger gameplan.

My main issue with your theory are players like FF who seem to have real IRL excuses for not being able to play. I doubt that would change whether they were town or scum, which I think pokes a hole in your "scum would be active here" theory. For example, it's possible a Hopkirk/FF team would want to be active here but just can't.

[Dannflor]

@Dong, FF and NSG had no impact on theirs or each other's wagons being created. If scum, they bussed out of necessity not because it was planned.

[Dannflor]

I'm fairly sure I said BB/Gobbles was one of my top picks right now.

Going to Hamilton tonight after another long work day so don't expect much. I'd vote gobble here but I want to drag this day out to let's say two before deadline so I can properly solve.

Hop 'hopilton' hopkirk

what happened with BB/Gobble being your top pick

[Dannflor]

Ank says that she's scum reading Hop so hard because she's not town reading him and feels like she should by this point

[Dannflor]

Hop if BB is town then either I have to be scum or all town are voting you right now :V

[Dannflor]

unless you think Ceph is scum??

[Dannflor]

the general feeling in my team chat is that hop's catchup is designed to look towny but it doesn't really logically make sense

And Hop feels panicked tonally

also fmpov the wagon on Hop is 3 town so I'm happy with this lynch

[Dannflor]

Ank doesn't town read your D1 stuff at all

Eddie feels more confident you red after the catchup

also uh

Where does Ceph have a strong town read on you?

[Dannflor]

There's scum equity in the people not being meaningfully pushed. Looking from my perspective this gamestate doesn't happen with consensus townreads being right here.

I don't accept that in a gamestate where the people most widely considered town have discussed it with their teams and are happy to vote me here. Just look at how good team mafia towns in general are. I'm very unconvinced that the alleged amount of effort being put into this results in Esperon then me being the primary wagons when we're 2/4 of the easiest lynch targets in the game (based on general reads/activity/avoiding consensus challenging)- the other 2 being Dong and Gobble.

Hop 'Hopcoptor' Hop

"towns are good therefore LHF shouldn't be wagoned" does not make sense given the paragraphs upon paragraphs of words I've written about how LHF is good to lynch early actually

and there's just the fact that like... what if scum really is in that grouping?

[Dannflor]

Kind of surprised none of your team is even claiming they did meta tbh.

ank specifically scum reads you for reasons she cannot talk about rnow

[Dannflor]

Also I don't think you look at your wagon as town and say, "yeah that could be all town"

[Dannflor]

EC wanted to post this as his updated team solve list:

Spoiler: Data Set 3

BB Cheeky
BB Auro
FF Hop
FF Dong
FF Goble
Cheeky Hop
Cheeky Goble
Auro Hop
Auro Dong
Auro Goble
Hop Dong
Hop Goble
+ less likely
BB Gobble - 774/votes
Dong Goble - 341
Cheek Dong - 549/573

FF - 3
Cheeky 4
BB - 3
Auro - 4
Dong - 5
Goble - 5
Hop - 5

He's also decided he's not reevaluating Cephrir past town this game so he's gone from the combinations.

Also, @Hopkirk, if you want to engage with Eddie, go for it. Tom is mostly busy IRL and Ank is busier + has the Large is ongoing. EC is more interested gauging from a perspective of "I'm lynching you today and then there's 2 more if the game doesn't end," rather than town blocking you

[Dannflor]

So CT has the chance to hammer FF, switches to BB who goes to L-1 over her nsg scumbud and like mind forces Dann and co to lynch nsg? Like wtf. FF makes more sense and in what world do I wagon my other scumbud over no-resistance nsg scumbud.

We've noted it as very unlikely due to that. It's specifically one of the ones we remove in the second data set.

I guess it's only still in consideration because *paranoia,* but overall I don't really think that's a likely pairing at all.

[Dannflor]

paranoia

Regardless. It's really silly and should not even be considered possible. I can see the FF even Gobble angles but like be fair if you're going to remove others for wagoning BB D1, as we're clearly never svs here.

I feel scum are in the winds of change. Was thinking Hop/FF but Dong/Hop works too I guess.

The list isn't in any order. That's not the most likely team, in fact I think it's one of the least likely. The reason it's still in contention is that the first vote on a wagon during WF is fine. Especially if you thought FF would die anyways, you could not know Dann would vote BB and momentum would cascade. It's not my top pick by any means, but the way EC parses for teams does not mark it impossible.

Also this is EC's solving, not mine. I would probably strike that team completely.

Also EC says Dong is very up in townieness

[Dannflor]

It's a possible pairing. We just town read you individually, so we always clear that pairing by lynching Hop.

[Dannflor]

Spoiler:

I'm definitely going to be the Night Kill, was fun playing with y'all!

I'm definitely going to be the Night Kill, was fun playing with y'all!

I'm definitely going to be the Night Kill, was fun playing with y'all!

I'm definitely going to be the Night Kill, was fun playing with y'all!

I'm definitely going to be the Night Kill, was fun playing with y'all!

I'm definitely going to be the Night Kill, was fun playing with y'all!

i rlly hope that this was a town block

for the meme

[Dannflor]

Don't really have anything to add today. Would really appreciate FF's thoughts on more current posts.

still wanting a Hop lynch

[Dannflor]

what games do you have with EC?

[Dannflor]

or game

[Dannflor]

lol hopefully this just ends the game

I think it gets a quite a bit harder if it doesnt

[Dannflor]

If the game continues, do not let FF lurk out the next day phase please

[Dannflor]

Sorry hop

FF I thought the hammer was an accident, why is it now something you’d never do as scum

[Dannflor]

I think Dong is still quite a bit townier from today btw

[Dannflor]

I think so yes

I’ll probably wanna revisit teams with EC, see which one of our town reads it’s likely we’re wrong on (thinking FF but that’s just my initial reaction)

But right now I’m liking a gobble lynch

[Dannflor]

okay so

whoever is trying to make arguments about the nightkills being anything other than because they are universal obvious town reads are either scum or really bad town (that's pretty much a direct quote with Ank and I agree with the sentiment)

Also, it should probably be noted that both Dunn and Ceph had my slot as basically their highest town read while we're looking at dead people's reads.

@Dong, I feel like Dann/Gobble makes way more sense than Dann/Auro, even from my perspective. What makes you so convinced us two specifically are partners? I'm still thinking your bad town here (no offense) over scum, but I can't understand your thought process.

Ank also wanted me to post that she's not tolerating a fast day. She wants time this weekend to do some deeper analysis. I would also like the time to make sure Gobble/FF/etc. get fully into the game.

Overall, I'm still not too too concerned about this game despite the double town flip given my top town read has died basically three times in a row now (Kitty > Dunn > Ceph) so it's pretty clear I'm not like super pocketed. I lean towards a Gobble lynch today unless his catchup is like, immediately mind blowing. Not interested in ending the day without more FF either.

Viola.

[Dannflor]

Saying "Why is Dann still alive" doesn't make sense Gobbles.

Everybody agreed Kitty was universal town, so much so that my read on her in my reads list was like... "town, not gonna explain because everyone already agrees."

Dunn has the. literal. exact. same. reads. as. me. Only with less suspicion and paranoia.

Ceph was far more town read yesterday than me as well. There has been throughout the game, a lot more discussion about me!scum than those other slots. Why am I not dead? Because at least one of the people who has me in their pool is wrong town who keeps pushing the same bad solve. Also saying EC had a bad game doesn't gel with him having NSG as top scum D1 and his top 3 town as NKs so far. In his game he killed the first scum early then spent several mislynches before nailing the third. Sometimes the bad or wrong town have to die first before we can get to scum. EC specifically would like to say that Espeonage was on crack and Hop got lolhammered while we were still evaluating with 9 DAYS left on the timer. Like actually, wtf.

Saying I suck this game is also kinda bad faithy given my town reads have been very correct so far (look at my reads list D1) and I killed NSG by swinging back after Molla. What sucks is the Auro/Dann solve.

[Dannflor]

Honestly Dann, I put very little stock in you or your teams reads because from my perspective of team mafia, they have been trash directed at us.

this also seems to a violation of rules?

I also think Menalque is too good of a player to still have me as scum here.

[Dannflor]

Menalque is reading Dann from a town PoV, they aren't BoP material via gobbles.

I think even if me/my team's reads were bad this game, which they demonstrably are not, at the very least being like average or slightly above average. I've so far exceeded my scum range that it should be self evident.

I don't know. I need more reasoning than "Dann is still alive" and "his reads suck" in order to understand.

[Dannflor]

I apologize if I offended you Dann. Ian just salty that a l out of my frustrations across the whole of tm has come at the hands of your team

I do think you’re underselling yourself and your capabilities as scum though. The incredulousness at people suspecting you of all people for being alive is worrying considering this is how you won Pine v Ali

I don't think I was ever really incredulous in that game. My play was starkly different, but I won't go into self meta because that'll convince no one.

[Dannflor]

Auro is my strongest town read right now

and I think probably the clearest voice of reason

of course this reaffirmation is just gonna further the Dann/Auro case but whatever lol

[Dannflor]

I'm actually leaning towards an FF lynch

[Dannflor]

EC's viable pairings left are the following in no particular order:

BB Cheeky
BB Auro
BB Gobble - 774/votes
FF Dong
FF Goble
Cheek Dong - 549/573
Cheeky Goble
Auro Dong
Dong Goble - 341

The numbers are post numbers that make the pairings unlikely. He says you guys are all way too quick to eliminate teams when people are definitely going to distance in White Flag.

[Dannflor]

EC's choices for kills are two of Gobble/FF/Cheeky.

I think Molla/Auro are town. Possibly Dong but his push is so bad so I have to sort that out.

[Dannflor]

you guys are lynching me today. This game is bs.

For the record I still town read you but can you not do this shit

[Dannflor]

You haven't pushed anything solid this game BB. What are you scared my flip incriminates you?

how would this do anything

[Dannflor]

What is post 881 Dann

a bad post in favor of scum!Cheeky

not completely damning though

idk her self vote is really throwing me right now

[Dannflor]

Dann don't fucking ignore me, I want you to address that post of Cheeky's.

881

I wasn't purposefully ignoring lol

I went and looked in my own ISO and didn't see it so I wasn't sure what you were talking about

[Dannflor]

Look the options today are me or Dann. I lose, so end it.

what

[Dannflor]

whatever my vote is spiritually on cheeky

fuck that

[Dannflor]

Cheeky if you're town

it is literally as easy as lynching gobble > FF

It literally is

[Dannflor]

Cheeky I can't even tell if you think I'm scum or if you just dislike me for some reason

[Dannflor]

this is very unpleasant so I'm going to take a break from the thread for a while

strap in for a long day phase everyone

[Dannflor]

where the fuck am I even supposed to be "reevaluating"

like my town reads have all been correct so far and I've been pretty transparent about my thoughts and how they've progressed on every single slot since the start of the game

My strongest town read is Auro and Cheeky has been up there most of the game too, but apparently to the game I am dead wrong and get called scum with these people instead of anyone trying to talk to me about why this reevaluation of my top town reads should happen.

it's very funny how every single night killed townie must've been dead wrong too

probably wifom tbh

[Dannflor]

yeah I'm not lynching Cheeky this game

[Dannflor]

eh maybe that's too hasty

but literally ALL OF THE NKs scumread gobble/FF and that's significant

[Dannflor]

FF is apparently town, gobbles is obv town as he's become even more clearly mislynch bait

case these?

[Dannflor]

great

[Dannflor]

how did Hop even end up getting hammered

the day ending when it did was terrible

[Dannflor]

I would personally like to know Pops' reads if she's still engaged with the game

[Dannflor]

Dann who would gobbles partner be

Both Auro and Cheeky have continuously been on turkey

FF is town

Titus wants either Auro or Cheeky. Believes them to be scum, my issue is I can’t name a game where two last scum were in top 3 posters

gobbles / cheeky is a viable team

I need some re-convincing on FF town. What is your reasoning here?

Dong/Gobble is also viable lol

[Dannflor]

EC disagrees with me that Cheeky is town

[Dannflor]

ok now I'm actually taking a break

[Dannflor]

Tbh I think Gobbles > Cheeky results in a game win. Unless anyone strongly believes in Dong/Auro as the scum team.

Scum team, neh, one of them is scum, Auro, and the other is probs driving the town so Dann/Cheeky imo.

but you'd agree Gobbles > Cheeky ends the game?

[Dannflor]

actually can you unpack what that means I think I misunderstood

[Dannflor]

HURT: cheekyteeky

[Dannflor]

Does Pops have specific reasons for thinking I’m scummy? Or is it a general feeling.

Cheeky, you’re positing a BoP case (which Ank is enraged at because Hopkirk was the only lynch she had any hand in), which is frankly not good given our reads + the flips so far, and then simultaneously calling it a PoE read. Ank feels you’re not this incoherent as town.

Ank also wants to reaffirm that pushing weird night kill shenanigans is bad and scummy. The night kills are all because they were obviously town. Blatantly town. People pushing this aren’t focused on killing based on reads but on keeping the PoE open as wide as possible. Throwing paranoia and doubt around are congruent with that.

I think I’m the only one on my team who isn’t angry with Cheeky and/or scum reading her. I see the case for it but I’m truly not getting anything out of this engagement today.

I’m gonna focus on reevaluating everyone and rereading the game when I come back after my break. I’ve said most of what I need to say until I’m able to do some rereading and get my thoughts in order.

Cheeky, consider the fact that I’m town though, and you get your way and I die. I leave you with the instructions to never lynch Auro. Auro gets night killed. You are left in an f5 with BB, FF, Gobble, and Dong. What do you do?

[Dannflor]

oh the worst wants to replace into this game and lynch cheekibreeki

[Dannflor]

I don't want to lynch

Dannflor

, Formerfish, Cephrir, bbmolla, CheekyTeeky, gobbledygook, or Auro today by the way, for various reasons

This post was in order of towniest to scummiest

Yeah if dann is scum he can just win for that, I'm good.

Before I start, my current thought process is that Dann/Gobble is the scumteam, but we never lynch Dann there, and if Gobbles flips town we never lynch Dann.

Bonus round: "Dann killed Hop"

Actually VOTE: Hop L-1 but don't hammer please. FF's behaviour over time will be easier to gauge if we max out day lengths from this point.

Cheeky and FF why aren’t y’all voting

Didn't know what the vote count was and im lazy.

VOTE: Hoppy

The bit about needing to prove myself to you or youd vote me left a bad taste in my mouth bro. Eat some pineapple.

Within 1 minute. With 9 days left.

I don’t know exactly what your alignment is Cheeky, but whatever it is please stop. If you are town, you are still alive despite being more town read than the night kills because your reads are bad. This Dann push has literally kept you alive. And I think if you’re town is a big if at this point because i have not seen you be this stupid before.

[Dannflor]

That was from EC btw

I have some understanding of why you/your team might be scum reading me as town here, although the Pops read still throws me. So I’ll try to approach this from a more level headed / understanding perspective this day phase. It’s just that I have 3 voices telling me to lynch cheekibreeki

[Dannflor]

also I censored that EC post but I think it still came out a bit ruder than I wanted oops sorry

[Dannflor]

EC just wanted to say he's been confused on your perspective, Cheeky. He thought you were arguing that you were so sure I was scum that you wanted the two lynches to be Dann into you, and he just couldn't reconcile that with you being town. And now you're talking about not-Dann solves, so he feels pretty lost.

ftr I'm gonna stop just being a mouthpiece of my team's frustrations and post my own thoughts in a little bit, but putting that out there to start

[Dannflor]

hello I am alive

please please for the dear love of everything that is holy please take Auro off of L-1

I've had an extremely long week and am rlly tired right now but I get tomorrow off and will make this game my priority

[Dannflor]

I'm here now.

Writing up my thoughts.

lmao jfuekfeicjeisfjorewgjdreigjdlsgjdfkgsbjdsgiotsheghdfkgljfb

this game man

lmk if there's something exceptionally pressing I can address while I'm doing this

[Dannflor]

right now I think there's an extremely strong case for Gobble/FF

I independently town read every other slot to some extent and find very few reasons to town read those two slots in particular

I also think the specific associations between those two slots are atrocious

[Dannflor]

I'll case all that tonight

right now I think Cheeky is being dumb and I'm still pretty sure you're town despite my paranoia of being pocketed skyrocketing

Cheeky is frustrating, but I don't think her pivot from self-voting, voting me, suddenly saying she's never considering me/you as scum, then pushing you again ever comes from anything other than confused and/or frustrated town

[Dannflor]

I assume you'd still prefer a gobble lynch today?

[Dannflor]

despite my paranoia of being pocketed skyrocketing

Anything I did in the previous pages that made it skyrocket? O.o

Every single other slot in the game has shaded me this day phase. You're the only one that's maintained a consistent and strong town read. It's possible that could be TMI.

However, I think it's more likely you're just town and good at mafia.

[Dannflor]

Let's leave associations aside. What strong reasons do you have for FF scum? Is his stubbornness AI?

And why is Dong town?

FF's stubbornness is not strictly AI.

The thing is though, FF has the ability to obv town, he has the ability to be *towny*, and he hasn't done that this game unless you count bouts of AtE. A large part of the reason I (and maybe others) have written him off as town before is because he was a "counter wagon to NSG." But look at who actually drove the wagons. I pushed FF, hard, with a post a lot of people liked and that I thought spewed me pretty town (if I do say so myself). Dunn built the FF wagon. If you accept that both Dunn and myself are town, there's really no reason both wagons couldn't have built on scum. In the case of scum!nsg and scum!FF (and also scum!gobble that I'm hypothesizing), they wouldn't have even been in a position to have much of an influence on the wagons either way. I also think furthering the dichotomy between the two would have been there best play anyway, which they ended up doing.

FF's scum read on you doesn't make sense. He has admitted himself that it's an emotional response which means he knows it's nonsense, but he's using the fact that he's known to be an emotional player to get away with it. FF is smarter than that as town. No one on my team is town reading him outside of EC's D1 read that there was one scum between NSG and FF, and honestly I don't think that's a very strong case. I cased him D1 and a lot of the factors I mentioned there hold true here. He is not genuinely looking to sort slots, that is greatly evidenced in his interactions with you, and also the fact that he doesn't really seem to be concerned with anyone else this day phase.

Granted, no one's scum read on you really makes sense. But at the very least with Dong's I can see where it's coming from. He's put some effort into it above everyone else and it shows. I think he really believes it (even if I think it's wrong). Dong has a consistent logical thought process beyond "Auro is scum because the NKs don't make sense" or "I emotionally feel Auro must be scum." He also isn't solely focusing on you despite his casing and is still looking to engage with other slots. There's a lot of little things in his posts that I think add up to town, such as his attitude and tone towards the NSG wagon or the way he's approached the game since then. He seems genuinely eager to solve the game, even if I think he's dead wrong.

[Dannflor]

I just want to throw out there that I regret lynching Espeonage. I think that could've been avoided if not for hubris. Although, once the "pure mechanical solve" line came out Esp just had to die both for the game and for the meme. Hopkirk, yes I scum read, but I'm rather miffed I'm being blamed for his lynch considering the circumstances. Especially considering I was planning on using the rest of the day to be much more sure of my reads than I was when the day ended. Despite that though, I'm not gonna pretend I've had perfect reads or played better than everyone else this game. I think I've had *pretty good* reads based on whats been revealed so far and what I believe to be the case which makes the BoP cases on me more annoying, but this is not my best game and that's self-evident. But also, listen to what I'm about to say, please. Me being wrong on Espeonage, or even Hopkirk, does not mean I'm wrong in an FF/Gobble solve.

Auro

: Just like man, the scum reads on this slot are stupid. I feel like I'm in the exact same place early D1 where there was a wagon on Auro and it was because... people didn't like that he's playing mafia well?? Btw FF was one of the people on that wagon. Cheeky is mad at Auro for being rightfully taken aback by Cheeky's sudden tunnel onto him and him continually trying to engage with every slot in the game. Gobble scum reads Auro because if he was town he would have died by now. FF scum reads Auro because he's "fearmongering and muckraking." Dong actually has reasoning that makes me believe that an Auro!scum read is a genuine read he holds! I think he takes it too far in saying that Auro has never had a genuine read, and that he's conf biasing quite a lot on his case. But I can at least see where Dong is coming from in his observation of Auro's activity around the NSG wagon and read progressions in later day phases. I still think he's wrong on quite a few marks. For example, scum!Auro would not need to intensely push Espeonage if I'm clearly doing the dirty work for him. But there's enough in Dong's posting that I think the read comes from conf biased town.

So we have two shit pushes, Cheeky who has been all over the place this day phase, and Dong.

I see Auro doing what every townie should be doing in engaging every single slot, asking the questions I want to ask, and generally being obv town in his effort and presence; yet everyone scum reads him. I don't think Auro can keep up the transparency and flow in his reads that he has this game through 571 fucking posts. The worst has a hard soul town read on him. I hard town read him. EC thinks he's towny but isn't as sure. I don't think Auro has such a nuanced read on me as scum. I don't think Auro goes to the trouble of hard pushing mislynches when he could've just let ME take the fall for it.

Like, you guys do realize scum are allergic to getting credit for town wagons right? Especially ones that are bound to flip sooner or later?

Cheeky

: The worst wants this slot dead or FF dead today. EC wants to kill Cheeky for being a moron. I'm ignoring these reads. Like they make sense from the perspective of Cheeky has been all over the fucking place pushing me and my highest town read with shit frustrating reasoning with what looks like a purely scum agenda.

On the other hand, there's a reason I once felt so confident in this game to lock Cheeky as hard town. And I think returning to my original reads list is the correct move here. If you don't remember, I had KittyMo, Auro, Cheeky, Dunn, and Hopkirk as my top town. I had BBmolla, Gobble, and Dong as my middle/mixed reads. And I had FF, NSG, and Espeonage as my scum reads. Dong and BB have moved up since then. I'm trusting I was right on FF and Gobble.

I don't think Cheeky hard defends NSG as scum. In every single game I've played in the last year where scum died D1, scum have always been eager to bus. Always. I don't think Cheeky decides NSG of all players is someone to go down defending for. I don't think that one wall post from Pops comes from scum, like very rarely does it. Most of all, I don't think Cheeky can fake the emotional turmoil she's undergone this dayphase, nor her progression from self-voting, to pushing me, to not pushing me, back to pushing Auro. I see where she's coming from on each push on an emotional level. I don't really think there's any reason for scum to drop the push on me, even if it's only for a little bit. I understand a lot of the frustration here and I really don't think it comes out unless she's like... desperate to save Gobble? Which is potentially possible but not relevant because we are lynching Gobble today.

=========================================

Those are the two slots I need to talk about most. I've talked about Dong and FF a little bit already.

I think BB is just town. That seems to be relatively consensus at the moment? Which for this game, seems like a good sign. I'll elaborate on this specifically if people want me to but yeah it's just town I think

Gobble and FF are at the bottom of the pile. Not only do I think they are likely to be the team, but even if they aren't I think they have the most potential to be scum individually (thus covering for if I'm wrong on one of my town reads).

[Dannflor]

Ok. I am caught up. I don't think I am actually going to wall anything, I'm just going to give reads.

Town
KittyMo
Auro
Dann
Dunn
Cephrir
Hopkirk
Espeonage
Joan of Arc
DongEmpire
Formerfish
Wgeurts
NSG
Scum

You can view the Joan of Arc line as the official null line because I have no read on that slot and it is odd that others do have a read on that slot when it has two posts with no content.

Principally, the things that I am most suspect about are...

Dunn being able to extrapolate so much from a Joan of Arc vote on me. I feel like he is projecting and has entered the Death Spiral to get me killed.
NSG stating that Wgeurts was one of the three people in her town block and then not moving her vote despite having ample to time to post several more times after that fact.
Dongempire backing off Cephrir seemed like he realized he went down the wrong path trying to get people to scumread Cephrir. I also feel like Hopkirk is reaching with some of his analysis (particular when it comes to me), but he is very funny so I will townread him to keep him around longer.

I want to vote NSG because she is playing into her scum meta that I saw in Alternative 9P. I find it odd that no one else is commenting on that. It seemed like it was common knowledge across the site since other payers in that game also made that observation.

VOTE: Dongempire

I'm gonna be honest, I think this reads list is TMI. It's like almost too perfect considering the consensus reads throughout the game combined with how the flips have turned out. This is a point of suspicion mostly because very very few people can have read accuracy that high in a reads list this early on in the game.

But that's not the main problem with this post. The main problem is that he calls out NSG as his top scum read and then immediately votes Dong Empire. This was called out at the time and explained away by not being able to engage with NSG at the time since she wasn't in the thread. Fine.

HOWEVER, let's look at what Gobble does after I lay out a huge reads list with both FF and NSG in my bottom 3 scum reads.

Yeah. The comment about Formerfish is pretty accurate

I feel like I want fish to be town rather than actually town reading him

VOTE: Fish

Instead of latching on to the scum read of NSG in my post, who is apparently his #1 scum read, Gobble goes for the vote on FF, even after just giving him town points.

Can we please just kill this

VOTE: NSG

Only once the FF wagon has stalled out does Gobble switch to this tone, as if he's been begging for an NSG lynch all this time. It's an agenda-y progression that seems to be going along with the easiest wagon that ISN'T NSG, until it becomes inevitable and Gobble can still say he gets credit for the NSG wagon by having her as his top scum read all along. You can see he's very aware of this here:

If NSG flips scum I think it makes me fairly obviously town since I’ve been saying that for a long time

From this progression alone Gobble vs. FF seems SvT, but I don't think it completely removes them as a possibility and there's a lot of evidence that points towards SvS in my opinion

[Dannflor]

I agree that you would be furious and confident that they're scum.
I agree that you would throw a tantrum being at L-1 a lynch away from LyLo.
But I'm not you. I'm usually calm.
I'm trying to solve, this isn't an ego trip for me - especially because my lynch would mean only one shot left at finding scum.
I retract that town should lynch Cheeky if I'm lynched right now. I now believe that Cheeky can indeed play this poorly as town.

btw this is incredibly towny

[Dannflor]

Gobble, who was pushing FF D1 and had him in his bottom scum reads, completely drops that read after the NSG flip. The reasoning that FF was a counter wagon to NSG is flimsy, and it's startling the complete lack of engagement to sort each other between these two slots is, especially when you consider Gobble's scum read of the slot D1.

There's also the fact that FF likes to tango with anyone who scum reads him. You see this multiple times in his discussions with KittyMo, confrontation with Cheeky, and fight with Auro. Despite Gobble's scum read of FF, FF finds a hedgey way to town read Gobble and then never questions the fact that Gobble is scum reading him.

Maybe I'm over reading the associations here. But I highly doubt both these slots can be town.

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Gobble

[Dannflor]

btw EC keeps asking in our chat for Tom to vet the Auro read, and generally asking Tom was his % confidence is in the Auro read

and especially recently EC has been worried that he's TMIing us town

but Tom's response has consistently been that Auro is 90%+ town

and he has said that Auro's read on us is a very auro read, take that for what it's worth

[Dannflor]

EC just said in chat he also agrees with killing gobble/FF if anyone cares

[Dannflor]

That's fine, I just want to see some actual content before the thread's locked. Consider Hop town obviously

Well, ive been working under the assumption that you, cheeky and ceph are town.

That would put my pool at Gob/Dong/Dan.

Out of that group id have to say Dong is my #1 suspect, and then idk because both Dan and Gob seem like they should be town.

this to a pivot of Auro!scum today actually reeks of opportunism

[Dannflor]

dong do you play age of empires 2?

[Dannflor]

I changed my mind, I like VOTE: Formerfish better to start with.

Although I'm open to debate Auro if you're still dead set on Gobble.

[Dannflor]

EC wanted me to post this from him:

I wanted to highlight something. Let's look at the concept called Occam's Razor. I was thinking about solves, and my FF read, and thought back to the hammer. Look at viewtopic.php?p=11559257#p11559257

He had not posted in ~28 hours before this post. His first reply back, is a naked vote, with no explanation for Hop being scum, a throwaway line, and a hammer. What are the odds he happens to come back, and cast the hammer vote, within 1 minute of it being L-1?

I wrote this off originally, but looking back, I just think it's fucking surreal odds.

[Dannflor]

Guys if you lynch Auro we lose this game

straight up

I don't think a lylo with any combination of the remaining players is remotely winnable

[Dannflor]

This post is from Ankamius, she really wanted me to post this:

You all really just need to look at what the fuck is actually going on for the game to be obvious, you all are so focused on bullshit that doesn't matter that you're not looking at what is actually going on beneath your eyes, I mean just LOOK at this:

A) Cheeky and Auro are ENDLESSLY fighting about random bullshit that doesn't matter for literal pages and pages on end. They are relentless. Cheeky is town for this because the irrationality is so overexaggerated at this crucial point of the game that I really can't ever see scum going down this route. Auro has had consistent responses that are congruent with themselves and hasn't flinched at anything that has been thrown at him despite how consistent the pressure has been on. The last time I saw scum Auro, he played a lot more safe with his posting and didn't go into all these obscene walls. I 100% agree with duck that his isn't his scum response. This is way too much effort and way too consistent in EVERYTHING he's doing.

B) BBmolla is just town. Not rethinking this, sorry.

Now that that's over with, it's frankly obvious what lese is going on.

Gobble has been consistently around in this day phase and constantly talking AI stuff, asking good questions, and actively sorting the game. Town.

FF, ignoring that the absence is likely NAI due to real life, has been stilted and focusing almost only on Auro the entire da phase, and his trajectory today looks like he's trying to kill Auro while letting other slots take the fall for him. There's no game solving here, it's just a scum agenda.

Dongempire LITERALLY DOES NOTHING until this giant case, and now he's back to doing nothing. He literally has two members in his team that can make that giant case on Auro, which took him THREE DAYS to make. He's done fuck all today aside from that. He's scum.

THE AGENDAS ARE OBVIOUS

[Dannflor]

Given that Ank town reads Gobble, and Tom does a little too

I feel more confident on FF overall because no one in my team town reads him

[Dannflor]

And wouldn't he NK Cheeky?

I don't think he needs to after the NSG flip and people start saying FF is town because of it

[Dannflor]

maybe I am scum reading Gobble for stupid reasons and town reading Dong for stupider reasons

idk

Talk to me on your Dong read, Auro?

[Dannflor]

That's Ank's view of Gobble's play this day phase not mine, but I can ask if you like.

I will say however that I did like this post from Gobble:

Hnnnnnngh the ease of Auro’s wagon makes me feel bad about this

Can we please back off before it even gets to be the weekend

If only because Dann + BBmolla are the only ones not on board with your lynch, so it's a little suspect that no one else has remarked on how easy it would be to lynch you (even if Dann + Auro is the popular fan theory)

[Dannflor]

Sorry for sparse posting, will be here properly soon~

That's fine! I'm exhausted so apologies if I come out a little incoherent or overly verbose here

[Dannflor]

He literally has two members in his team that can make that giant case on Auro,

Do you find his giant case on me different from his other posts about me (or in general) different in a linguistic sense?

I don't think this is relevant given he'd have to paraphrase it anyway.

[Dannflor]

dong do you play age of empires 2?

Yup, but im only 1800 hd and on definitive i couldnt get a stable rating because of the crashings especially in teamgames. I was just playing yesterday in fact

I just started ranked/placements in DE

I think I hovered around 1700 or 1750 HD

[Dannflor]

@Auro

Ank sent me these links:

viewtopic.php?p=11564802#p11564802
viewtopic.php?p=11565451#p11565451
viewtopic.php?p=11567247#p11567247
viewtopic.php?p=11567255#p11567255
viewtopic.php?p=11568173#p11568173
viewtopic.php?p=11570106#p11570106
viewtopic.php?p=11570124#p11570124

and also she said to just... look at what he's been posting today

his questions are consistently relevant and he's giving reads without obscuring them

his reads are also shifting in what looks like a natural way

[Dannflor]

yeah that'd be great, I'd definitely think about it

[Dannflor]

@Gobble, when you get back to the thread, could I request your brief thoughts on every slot individually?

[Dannflor]

I think a general list from everyone would help at this juncture tbh

[Dannflor]

I like these wagons what course should I be taking?

Former seems like its a done deal at this pointz i doubt trying to flip everyone on nsg at the last moment will work, and im pretty sure on former (im also convinced on nsg but in a decision of one or the other...)

Sure, tomorrow we can have a better discussion.

VOTE: BB
L1 i think

I think eliminates a Dong-Fish pairing.

Dong-BBmolla maybe. I don't see how this eliminates Dong-Fish.

[Dannflor]

his questions are consistently relevant and he's giving reads without obscuring them

his reads are also shifting in what looks like a natural way

Still think he's being held to a low standard, compared to this town games. I'd like to know if Ank feels this is his town self after taking a look at any of his town games

From Ankamius:

That doesn't feel at all alignment indicative.

I don't care what people are saying, I care about what they're trying to do and whether they're trying to solve the game. I don't know any specific performances of gobble offhand, but my general idea of his reputation is that he's lynchbaity enough that people just don't generally recognize when he's just town.

Even then, for Gobble to be scum, I have to be wrong on one of FF/Dong. Which one of those am I wrong on? NaCL proved in the Open that he can write consistent cases as scum. Just one scumgame I skimmed from Farkran indicates he's perfectly capable of looking town as scum. And that accounts for basically all of the reasons Dann is town reading him.

Formerfiish has so much sketchy shit throughout the game that he hasn't been able to make up for that I'm really struggling to see how he's not scum.

[Dannflor]

For reference:

That's fine, I just want to see some actual content before the thread's locked. Consider Hop town obviously

Well, ive been working under the assumption that you, cheeky and ceph are town.

That would put my pool at Gob/Dong/Dan.

Out of that group id have to say Dong is my #1 suspect, and then idk because both Dan and Gob seem like they should be town.

Unless anyone strongly believes in Dong/Auro as the scum team.

Scum team, neh, one of them is scum, Auro, and the other is probs driving the town so Dann/Cheeky imo.

but you'd agree Gobbles > Cheeky ends the game?

No, i think that if we lynch Auro/ Dann/Cheeky we win.

THIS is FF's stances right before and after the Hopkirk lynch. Oh my, he's scum reading both of the lynch bait after the hammer on Hopkirk comes out, and then suddenly he's scum reading the popular scum team opinion of Auro/Dann and Cheeky, who is both pushing that team and becoming so irrational that they're threatening to lynch themselves in the meantime.

Absolutely fascinating that Dong and Gobble are no where on his radar. Also, extremely fascinating that, despite Dann being in his scum list both times, he's more than happy to vote for Auro instead, the leading wagon.

LyLo is so fucking easy for FF/Dong with an Auro lynch because... Surprise surprise, there are two very juicy mislynches in Gobble and Cheeky still available. There's enough paranoia about Dann that it's plausible to lynch him as well. There are enough townpoints for FF/Dong as that stage in the game that it's very plausible that they would be in very little danger. Yet when FF comes back, despite the whole game shifting, he switches to just hard shoving Auro down.

I'm flash lynching the next person to wifom.

Formerfish is unable to play the game for different reasons.
BB is deathtunneling me.
You are not voting auro or dann and seemed to flip on me near the end of D1.
Dann and Auro are scumbuddies.
Gobbles is lynchbait and wont listen to me.
I wasnt killed because i was the only one who consistently voiced suspicion on dann and auro. If i was killed, it would be the awkwardest shit ever, even more so than cephrir, and would definitely incriminate dann and auro. Their only bet right now is i dont make enough noise to get them killed, and my only losecon right now is gobbles gets lynched so they snowball it into an either me mislynch or a former mislynch.

This post by Dong is very blatant when you look from an FF/Dong scumteam point of view. They don't want Gobble lynched because they need him as a distraction so he can be a consistent inevitable mislynch threat for town in LyLo.

After the tides turn, both Dong and FF go hard as fuck onto brute forcing the Auro lynch through. There's so much evidence for Dong/FF and I'd frankly be shocked if it was any other pairing. The entire day phase makes perfect sense when you look at it from that directions.

Dong, throughout the entire day phase had FF locktowned. If this is the scumteam and town blows it on an Auro/Cheeky or Auro/Dann or Auro/Gobble lynch pairing I'm going to be very upset. If I have to fucking town case enough slots to get people on the same page, I will.

this game is NOT hard. People just aren't thinking. Auro's two posts about eliminating a Dong/FF pairing are nonsense. That shit is stupid because now the scum team KNOW they have to play to get two mislynches. Finding things Day One are kinda not very useful when assessing what scum are thinking. The game is now much more concrete in scum's eyes so finding scum motivations and things that absolutely don't make sense from teams work. They aren't as informed D1 as they are late in the game.

[Dannflor]

That was largely from Ank

Cheeky, why did you lockscum FF D1 and why has that reversed since?

[Dannflor]

Which of those reads is likely to be from a type of bias in your opinion?

[Dannflor]

Dann don't you get the feeling Auro knows people's alignments?

I feel like he isn't genuinely reassessing anyone. At first glance one might assume this is ubecause he was tunneled on gobbles but he's since indicated that he expects his own read to flip on that slot.

I don't feel this, no. In fact the exact opposite of this feeling was a large part of why I hard defended him D1.

I think you're basing this largely off of his reaction to your push on him. I think he's town, suddenly saw you hop on his wagon for reasons he didn't understand, and justifiably thought you must be scum because you wouldn't be that off-base as town.

I think since then he's come around to view your trajectory over the day phase as a whole and realized why you might have hopped on that wagon. But I don't think his initial reaction of "offering to let himself get lynched" for you conveys any sort of TMI. It's just a general violent reaction to your violent push, if that makes sense. I mean I almost had the exact same reaction at the beginning of this dayphase, but didn't say anything until I'd stabilized my thoughts.

[Dannflor]

Ank has kinda convinced me on Gobble town at this point

but regardless, FF is the best lynch because he fits into both teams

EVEN if FF is town which I highly doubt. I think knowing his alignment for sure in the context of both major D1 wagons can be extremely helpful.

[Dannflor]

VOTE: FF

[Dannflor]

I honestly think the NKs always play out exactly the same regardless of team. Unless the team is one of the NKed people obviously.

[Dannflor]

yeah we don't have Dong/Molla as a possible team in our list

[Dannflor]

Would he unnecessarily antagonize her in thread and vote her when she's pushing you (iirc earlier in this day)? Isn't his scum play better than this anyway?

Cheeky is part of his "solve" coming into the day. FF's strategy just seems to be to be jumping on the easiest wagon out of you/me/Cheeky.

The latter part needs citation.

[Dannflor]

Why go for the harder lynch in Auro?

Auro is evidently not the harder lynch

[Dannflor]

Dann, you seem equally convinced about Dong and Fish, so why the Fish vote?

Ank's read is Dong/FF as the team

Mine was you/FF but I'm starting to come around on you as town

FF is the commonality there that I feel most confident about at the moment

[Dannflor]

Let's say you're town. But you and Cheeky came into the day with the idea that Auro might be scum.

A Dong/Gobble team would find it much easier to push Auro in that case, with the aid of paranoia against me, than pushing you

[Dannflor]

both you and cheeky*

[Dannflor]

a dong/FF team*

I'm tired

[Dannflor]

I feel like FFscum makes better kills, especially with a Dong teammate. Unless the dead people were scumreading Dong? I'll need to check that. I could see FF killing people who scumread his weaker scumbuddy to help prevent his weaker scumbuddy's death.

IIRC Dunn at least had Dong as his top scum read

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Dong

[Dannflor]

Dong, you had Auro in your "town block" D1, do you remember your reasoning for that? do you think that read is pretty much invalidated now or is there any part of it that gives you pause?

[Dannflor]

FF is a better lynch than Dong simply because he works in more teams.

hmmm me and EC have the opposite

possible we're wrong though

[Dannflor]

FF, I'm interested in your thoughts on Dong as you're catching up

[Dannflor]

No one should be town reading Former Fish

[Dannflor]

I think Gobbles is town now

[Dannflor]

I don't read any sincerity if that's what you mean

it's very easy to say "oh I'm gonna hammer" and then take that back if it doesn't pay off

He literally just went from "I don't like the Dong wagon" to "I'm gonna hammer" in the same kind of turn

Especially if it's a Dong/FF team, he's kind of out of options

[Dannflor]

Ank prefers to lynch FF

[Dannflor]

No one should be town reading Former Fish

Does this impact your read on BB?

I don't really understand why he has it beyond "the way that the wagons were"

but I can't really BoP him on it, he's still independently townier than most of the other slots in this game

[Dannflor]

Dann is scum

shut up

[Dannflor]

He literally just went from "I don't like the Dong wagon" to "I'm gonna hammer" in the same kind of turn

Well, he did say there was something he couldn't talk about.

and he can easily go "well, I guess it doesn't make as much of a difference as I thought"

I would be more convinced if he'd actually found his way onto the wagon instead of saying he would hammer

[Dannflor]

I’m so fucking confused about Danns perspective

I’m not lynching FF

there's just

nothing towny about him

I don't understand

[Dannflor]

I think Gobbles is town now

Why?

Ank's case swayed me

[Dannflor]

no it's the third vote

still need one more

[Dannflor]

this reminds me of FF saying that his accidental hammer on Hopkirk is a town case?

[Dannflor]

right but an accidental hammer wouldn't make you town because...

it would be an accident

[Dannflor]

If you think FF is lying, he's a better vote than Dong anyway.

the only problem is Dong covers more possible teams

I only have FF with Dong and with Gobble but no one else

and I'm feeling Gobble town

[Dannflor]

And im saying that as scum my hammer wouldnt have happened because i would have known it was the hammer.

but you claimed it was an ACCIDENT

[Dannflor]

Ank prefers to lynch FF

Then why keep Doing at L-1?

because I'm an indecisive fuck myself

[Dannflor]

It was an accident. As scum I wouldnt have allowed for an accident to occur because i would have read to the end of the thread before I voted.

you literally voted one minute after cheeky

it didn't pop up in preview you said

How on earth would you being scum allow the preview to magically pop up

[Dannflor]

I only have FF with Dong and with Gobble but no one else

and I'm feeling Gobble town

So what teams do you have Dong in?

FF Dong
Cheeky Dong
Auro Dong
Gobble Dong

[Dannflor]

Dann, i dont know what you are doing right now, but you are eating your own tail.

you came into this day saying me and Auro was scum, you seemed pretty confident in that

Why does something that happened in another game suddenly overtake that read

[Dannflor]

VOTE: FF

[Dannflor]

Tbh I think Gobbles > Cheeky results in a game win. Unless anyone strongly believes in Dong/Auro as the scum team.

Scum team, neh, one of them is scum, Auro, and the other is probs driving the town so Dann/Cheeky imo.

Unless anyone strongly believes in Dong/Auro as the scum team.

Scum team, neh, one of them is scum, Auro, and the other is probs driving the town so Dann/Cheeky imo.

but you'd agree Gobbles > Cheeky ends the game?

No, i think that if we lynch Auro/ Dann/Cheeky we win.

Like how much do you believe this still?

Who is Dong's partner fypov?

[Dannflor]

Uh...Dann you have me/BB/Auro as town?

yes

possible teams are different from individual reads

[Dannflor]

Dann, i dont know what you are doing right now, but you are eating your own tail.

you came into this day saying me and Auro was scum, you seemed pretty confident in that

Why does something that happened in another game suddenly overtake that read

Because it had me rethink people who i had as town. Are you being dense on purpose, or is this you claiming scum finally?

oh are you scum reading me?

I honestly have no idea what your read is on me right now

[Dannflor]

Right...

Individual read confidence should weigh into possible team confidence, you shouldn't simply go with "more possible teams"

I have explained this so many times that I feel like you guys may have stopped reading my posts at some point. We've eliminated teams based on interactions between players, completely devoid of reads.

Now, our individual read confidence does play into team confidence! But when individual reads are fairly close, covering more ground is appealing because there's always a chance I'm wrong on a town read.

[Dannflor]

You keep flip flopping on every read you have and you only woke from your slumber when dong got put at l-1 so consider me looking at the game state and deducing whos scum.

yes I awoke from my slumber

I got home from work

look I honestly am perfectly fine with a Dong lynch

I want one of Dong / FF dead today

I'm voting FF because Ank wants it but if Dong gets to L-1 I'm hammering

[Dannflor]

also sorry for being crabby everyone I had a long day and I really really want this game to be over

I'm also really not seeing what everyone else is seeing re: FF which is adding to my frustration because either I'm being stupid or everyone else is and blah

[Dannflor]

Now, our individual read confidence does play into team confidence! But when individual reads are fairly close, covering more ground is appealing because there's always a chance I'm wrong on a town read

There's more. Team confidence within two scumreads is higher than a scumread with townread. Fmpov only consider within the four as primary

in this case we have FF as being with Dong and Gobbles

and then we have Dong being with FF, Gobbles, and then some of our town reads

assuming our team reads are all 100% correct then Dong is the objectively better lynch

based on read confidence though my team wants FF

[Dannflor]

Unexpectedly I'm on FF's side here and believe him. Lol

Danns been pretty quiet all day and then Dong hits l-1 and he goes ballistic trying to swing the lynch my way.

Can we just have a moment to appreciate how wack this post is?

Dong hasn’t even posted in 2 days and everyone is running around with their heads cut off while FF gambits a vote that isn’t even a hammer. And then he makes posts like THIS.

Ank: Grow some fucking balls TM2020 WF Town.

We cannot think about things solely from the lens of teams because scum are going to distance now MORE THAN EVER. Thinking about things in that way lends scum the ability to trick us out of correct reads. Stop talking about teams and realize the way Dong and FF have been posting all day is scummy as shit.

Also I think Auro has continued to be ridiculously obv town particularly in the last few pages and if you can’t see that by now then I’m just at a loss. (Just see that he’s spitting in the face of a Dong/FF solve, which would be the theoretical path to victory for a hypothetical me/Auro team)

VOTE: Dong

[Dannflor]

Molla, weird question maybe, but can you elaborate on why you’re suddenly town reading Cheeky now?

[Dannflor]

That’s L-1 btw

[Dannflor]

idk gobble maybe my vote didn’t show up in your preview

[Dannflor]

I’m just being snarky don’t mind me

[Dannflor]

Molla was the third vote and I see him as a pretty viable partner to you - is there strong evidence otherwise to that association?

Yes? BBMolla is very likely town given his wagon was the DIRECT counter wagon to NSG’s in the umpteenth hour

Not a reason to town read BB unless you’re scum reading me/Cheeky

[Dannflor]

VOTE: FF

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Cheeky

[Dannflor]

VOTE: BB

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Auro

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Dong

[Dannflor]

There I am now confirmed town because I’ve voted everyone which means I cannot be on a team with anyone!!

[Dannflor]

oh wait VOTE: Goble

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Dong

[Dannflor]

my point is

you can’t go ope X voted Y thus they can’t be partners

[Dannflor]

Molla, weird question maybe, but can you elaborate on why you’re suddenly town reading Cheeky now?

I think it’d be an excessive amount of work to fake the way cheeky has played this game and there’s been multiple points where I think cheeky has had suboptimal reads for their slot but stuck to them because they’re true

With that being said I think Cheeky is a really good player and I could be fooled, but their reads seem to be like mine and progressing naturalky

yeah that's about where I'm at with the slot too

[Dannflor]

btw been thinking about it

and if the assumption is that scum!FF would always kill Cheeky

then scum!Dann would also definitely always kill Cheeky over Dunn & Cephrir, two slots that had me locked as their top town

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Dong

[Dannflor]

Gobble.

You're getting buddied.

Signed,
Dong

by Auro????

what???????

[Dannflor]

I wish I was dead

[Dannflor]

been there done that

[Dannflor]

Bb/ff is ridiculous, it should be self evident that it isnt true.

Is that a D1 wagon assessment? Because yeah that's true. The point is that Dann's read progressions make little sense he wrote off that team and included others just as incompatible as a means to justify you as the lynch. Reason has clearly flown out the window this game.

[insert red X here]

I have updated EC's team solves every time he has one and we've asked for input if people find things that make them 100% incompatible...

Please explain why you're town reading Dong.

[Dannflor]

dong is at l-1

cheeky is voting me

dong is voting Auro

[Dannflor]

in an attempt to highlight the absurdity of their lack of reassessment.

So it wasn't just me right? I don't get how people can't see how weird Auro was being.

I don't get how you can't see how ridiculously obv-town Auro is

I don't understand. how. your. reads. can. be. this. way.