TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[Auro]

People townreading you is irrelevant to me unless they can make a convincing case that you're town, which I haven't seen yet.

[Auro]

And I, with my ability to outspam any player in said game, just prevented them from limming me, and all this WITHOUT giving into town consensus and just voting the easiest slot to survive

"Black Flag Nightless" with 3 free town lims before LyLo and multiple lhf slots that I am beginning to suspect are town~

[Auro]

I would expect if you actually believed me to be scum, that your primary reason for disagreeing with shirou’s strategy would be

my

alignment, not infinity’s - but you’ve been focusing on disagreeing with the infinity piece of his strategy.

There is no strategy for Auro->Flopz townflips, though?
I'm just arguing for Lilith!lim precedence in any universe.

[Auro]

now fmpov in order to think you are town, I have to believe that you believe I’m capable of such a thing - but you yourself have observed my scumgame and pointed out its flaws. Can you explain why you think this game is possibly in the realm of my scumgame in light of those observations? Do you believe that my play has been surface level and that my questions don’t go anywhere?

I know you know my then-observations on your then-scumplay and I'm very sure you'd avoid doing the same (that particular tell was "flurry of questions not followed up upon"). I do think your play has been surfacey and your scumhunting has been lacklustre, but on a much subtler level.

[Auro]

There is no strategy for Auro->Flopz townflips, though?

Before any further questions about what part of the "strategy" I'm misplacing my focus on, I'd like to hear the strategy for {Auro->Flopz universe}.

[Auro]

Hmm maybe I should stop hunting and just focus on having more posts than Chennis

[Auro]

fwiw before Shirou subbed in Lilith was the one who really entertained the Johnny scumread and didnt let it fade from collective town consciousness

And we have different opinions on the alignment it indicates, apparently

[Auro]

I feel like I’ve adequately explained any “lacklustre” or “surfacey” moments by my work schedule. So what makes you believe that any of these moments are better explained by my being scum than my being busy?

I empathize with the work schedule and I've accounted for that. It was the incongruence with your pushes on Johnny. You had to opportunity to do this when you were talking about other things like the townblock, too, so I don't think being busy should excuse everything?

[Auro]

Most people don't seem to enjoy or put that much effort into being scum, therefore although it's arguably not that difficult, in practice it's rarer to encounter those kind of behaviors because scum often just get greedy, impatient, low-effort etc.

Yeah I wish scum in general would play with more enthusiasm [inb4 someone says I'm talking about Johnny ]

[Auro]

@auro here is my response to that

also would like to note that as soon as Johnny posted after the vc, my team and I simultaneously went “JOHNNY MUST BE SCUM RIGHT?!?! following the thread but didn’t post until after the vc?!?!” I obviously wasn’t sure but like.... again, 0 reasons to townread, I thought he was possibly scum based on the timing of the post, want the day to be over and don’t see a better wagon - I don’t understand how these are “too strong” of reasons as you seem to be implying..

I am not talking about post Johnny's wolfing after the VC, I'm talking till the context of when you, Mena and I were conversing about voting/hammering Johnny.

[Auro]

@Lilith I think your time is better spent engaging/hunting within other slots and telling me your plan for Auro->Flopz not ending the game~ As much as I love arguing, engaging with me about my scumread on you is not beneficial as it won't individually help me sort your slot anyway.

[Auro]

If you think I was bussing Johnny, then what’s your explanation for me voting infinity yesterday when johnny was at E-1?

It was not a vote leading away from Johnny? Pushing *very* aggressively on Johnny would make the bus clearer too, when AL was not an obvious "not elim" option.

no but it will help me sort you

If you're town I don't think you can gain a strong enough townread on me that would prevent my elim, thus time is better spent elsewhere.

[Auro]

what exactly will help you sort me if you think engaging with me directly won’t? at this point I’m pretty doubtful that you actually intend to sort me at all.

I was able to sort you in that game (where I commented on your tell of throwing out a flurry of meaningless questions) without even being in the game, soooooooo

[Auro]

Not all scumhunting techniques require direct engagement, and sometimes direct engagement can work *against* your efforts to read someone when they're competent at responding and carrying out conversations~

[Auro]

And yet you’ve somehow managed to “sort” me incorrectly here

So I want to see that I am incorrect via observing your play this game outside your engagement with me, and that's what I'm asking you to do, no?

[Auro]

Have you not been able to do that in the prior 167 pages?

That's leaving me at "Lilith is scum" so far?

[Auro]

Like, you've been busy and that's why you couldn't engage with a lot of slots, sure.
I feel like overall given whatever presence you've had your engagements were still insufficient and make you likelier scum.
I am open to correcting my read today if you can cross that bar for sufficiency.

[Auro]

so either you’re not as good at reading me as you’ve professed, or you’re scum

When did I profess to being "good" at reading you? I said I was able to sort you as a spectator to demonstrate that lack of interest in continuous direct engagement is not an implication of lack of sorting. Your work is a confounding factor. You have today.

[Auro]

please show what about my engagements you think have been insufficient then

The lack of them focused *scumhunting* engagements are what I'm talking about.

[Auro]

I legitimately do not understand where your read is coming from.

Why do you think that I must have some “sufficient level” of engagement in order to be town? How have my posts not “scumhunted” enough? Is this some general bar of towniness or specific to me as a player?

You play that way as town, and it's specific to you as a player.

Please tell me your strategy for {AL->Flopz!town universe}

.

question for you, auro: would you say this interaction with you is “sufficiently scumhunting”?

No. "Scumhunting" me is unimportant when I'm taking the El anyway, and given your weaker-but-unarticulated reasoning on my being scum there is little reason to believe this engagement will help you sort me no matter the outcome - much less where this engagement does not damage my scumread on you anyway.

Not all scumhunting techniques require direct engagement, and sometimes direct engagement can work *against* your efforts to read someone when they're competent at responding and carrying out conversations~

Wow, this just describes the way I feel about your slot

Yeah not an invalid method, but can sometimes have incorrect conclusions

[Auro]

how is this helping you to sort me?

I'd like to see your engagement with those slots.

[Auro]

And calling it an immediate scumread "because activity" would be incorrect.

[Auro]

Remind me to ask Menalque a certain question before the day ends

[Auro]

inactivity has directly led to me not being able to read and engage with large parts of the game.

what reasons do you have to think that this is something I always do as town? what reasons do you have to think that this is sufficiently different from other towngames such that it is more plausible to be a scumgame than a towngame?

Because you do have activity and engagement, just that it's not the type I expect.
Anyway - doesn't matter.

[Auro]

Shirou has clarified that he has no plan for {Auro->Flopz} not ending the game, and my arguments pertain to that universe.

Yes, I have been discrediting townreads on you - and I am now.

I am interested in putting you on the table for elimination in LimLo or LimLo-1.

I could give less hoots about your own read on me when I'm allowing my lim today anyway - if you're town it should be important to you that I retract my scumread on you before I flip, and I already said that direct engagement with me on my scumread of you doesn't matter. If you're going to use this as reasoning to be content voting me, go ahead, but I'll continue advocating for your elim at LimLo(-1).

[Auro]

So: who’s my partner, auro?

I shall reveal this during my last words

[Auro]

If you think AL is town and I’m the only objectionable player in the current bloc in shirou’s plan, I don’t think it actually even matters

It's not a question, I said that because you keep framing my arguments as being related to Shirou's plan.

How does my intention behind discrediting matter if I flip anyway?

Not really sure why I would care about you retracting a scumread since 1) I think you’re scum, and 2) I haven’t been eliminated as town for a very long time for a reason - I’m obvtown. I don’t think you’re this wilfully blind to this as town so my conclusion is that you’re scum.

My flip would prove (1) wrong.
Your being scum would mean (2) doesn't apply.

Town shouldn't listen to "Auro was blind town" when it comes to LimLo(-1).

[Auro]

Mena, I am curious as to whether Maria has kept up with the game.

[Auro]

Oh, I also think scum probably bussed which makes me more suspicious of (shirou/chenn/AL)

Does AL's vote really look like a bus vote though?

My preference order is in 3014. I guess johnny would be my #1 preferred elim, but only because everyone else has done townier things. Maybe at some point I'll summarize why that is, but for now that's all I really have to say.

If bussing was the plan AL would've had a stronger push, right? Were there any instances of him trying to subtly lead the wagon away?

Also, yeah game's long but I think Maria's takes could be useful later in the game, I think it'd be wise to get them as well.

[Auro]

So I kinda forgot the game was happening, but I've played this setup a couple times in sitechat before, (and modded them, too) and usually it doesn't matter who gets flipped first, just because if you get town, you get a confirmed townie, and most of the time by the first couple minutes based on who's working with who and so on and so forth.

I get this setup mixed up a lot, though, with white flag( and also every time I skim this I think townies have an extra elim) which is why I posted like I did at end of D1. Let's flip mathblade and win this thing for the homies?

[Auro]

Actually I’ll share what I guess are the main 2 things now:

I'd like to hear the other main thing, the Math case?

[Auro]

Was whether maria had read the game or not the thing you wanted to ask me @auro?

Not really, but I hope you don't mind that I'll talk about it later.

[Auro]

Carpe diem. Seize the day, Auro! Make your life extraordinary!

Here's a random recommendation to watch Community instead!

[Auro]

Same. I love the paintball episodes especially.
Sounds like it's time for another rewatch sometime

[Auro]

(2) she thinks that if we decide to do shirou’s plan from yesterday then it’s non-negotiable that shirou dies first, but then gets to pick the elims for the next 2 days

Was expecting that Shirou!town would jump at this

[Auro]

Sorry boi but you can only get second place at tops

[Auro]

You were even getting it right yesterday coming to "scum!Shirou". It shouldn't be hard to come back to your previous reads right?

Come, it's very comfy in the scum!Shirou block/wagon. I invite you to sit here.

On the condition that you engage with me for many pages.

[Auro]

2) Auro was suspecting Flopz and did a 180 coming to today

3) Auro thinks both me/Lilith are suspects, but never mentioned how obvious it should be from town!Auro PoV that I'm trying to insert Lilith into the townblock to endgame with my plan

2) Oh yes re-evaluation is scummy

3) is just daft

I'm OK with Auro->Shirou->Lilith

[Auro]

No, out of principle. You go ahead and do the work

[Auro]

Seems like you're getting pretty agitated, Shirou

[Auro]

Your'e only thinking of the short term.

[Auro]

town!Auro the best play would be to follow my proposition on BoP

No, the best play is to convince people to kill the unkillable at some point post my flip.

[Auro]

Yup Auro's insistence that there's no plan after Auro Flopz just makes me think he's scum

?

What's the line of elims after Auro->Flopz?

There's no line past that

it means one of our primary assumptions about the townblock are wrong so we would need to talk about it

And I'm simply arguing for Lilith to be limmed in that scenario, so...?

[Auro]

I do believe you're scum so arguing with you is pointless, but if you're talking that I should hedge on the fact maybe you're town and prepare myself accordingly, I disagree.

It's the most optimal plan if you don't value potential wasted time.

I do value time the most.

This is a very bad plan according to my ideals.

Why should I stop playing the game because it's against your ideals? There are many other players in the game.

[Auro]

Chennis, would you consider scum!Lilith strongly if I and Flopz get limmed in succession?

[Auro]

You're coming around on AL, which is good

[Auro]

auro i legitimately dont get your play as either alignment here

Which part of my play aren't you understanding?

[Auro]

every part

1. I'm in a position where my own lim is virtually guaranteed to me in the next four elims.
2. I have a scumread that everyone else is townreading, which I am pretty confident on.
3. It seems like the current consensus of elims that it will mostly be me and lhf that get limmed.
4. Follows from (1) and (2) that momentary survival is unimportant in contrast to convincing people to see what I see.

Any part in specific?

[Auro]

you're basically going "Dooooomed" the same way johnny is, and if you're scum who's already given up sure I guess, but if you're town wtf

What do you expect me to do as town? Throw pages of AtE that killing me is daft?

[Auro]

1. if you're town, hell no it's not
2. im guessing its lilith but the fact i cant even be sure is not a good sign
3. then fight this by BEING ALIVE
4. this assumes you're right and also going to die.

I am the best judge of (1). And yes, I place a high value of confidence in the first part of (4) - the implication that I may die is unimportant.

with idk this thing called, what's the word, "Logic"

What if I think points against me are logical, just that they're incorrect?

[Auro]

you're trying to look as though you're anti consensus except you're offering nothing that's not consensus

AL!town, Flopz!town and Lilith!scum are all anti-consensus, I feel. Do you disagree? Although I'm weaker on the first two.

I'm gonna be honest

the fact that Auro still suspects me when I'm proposing a BoP on him, when he should know he's town and therefore this is a stupid play from me, is another very confusing point in world where it's town!Auro

I still haven't stated any explicit suspicion on you, I just said I'm OK with Auro->Shirou->Lilith I agree with Mena on following up on your deal -- as "you know I'm town because I wouldn't make a deal otherwise so pls get off" is stupid -- I'm fine with that because Lilith is in the lim order.

[Auro]

Who exactly is Lilith partner anyway?

And that is what I'll be hunting for today *insert smile emoji*

[Auro]

Requiring a solve when we only need one to win is silly.

Hey, I need the style points.

[Auro]

didn’t you imply you already had a partner for me

I have a hypothesis and I'm waiting to see what happens.

[Auro]

You can't convince me that it's a good idea for any scum, 4 miselims away from victory, to suggest a BoP unless they don't plan to actually flip the person that day, as I described what scum!me would do in this scenario.

If this was a normal game sure, but it's Black Flag and we only need one other scum elim. This isn't the place for scum to offer BoP. I don't get your suspicious on me ______.

This is what Shirou would probably say to anyone following up on the deal later regardless of alignment

[Auro]

Lilith understands my push on her - she's just popping into the thread to discredit it and rush an elim on me before I get it into everyone's heads to suspect her after my flip.

[Auro]

Your reasoning for thinking I’m scum-motivated makes no sense
Your reasoning for trying to push me over whoever you think my partner is makes no sense unless my partner is even more unkillable than I am
If you think I’m more killable than my partner, then you should be arguing against shirou’s plan because there would be multiple scum in the bloc

Incorrect. Killability only becomes an important factor given similar confidence in remaining scum.
My read on you is very confident, and my hypothesis for your partner is unconfident and has to be tested.
"oh fine, I guess town's townreading my confident scumread, let me just partner hunt and convince town to lim THEM" is weak play

[Auro]

He already decided Flopz is town

I am assuming Flopz to be the lim after me. If he's scum, then great, I win, and that's a useless scenario to think about.

[Auro]

Joqiza, I think you'd be able to understand what I'm trying to say despite poor articulation and I'd implore you to study her meta if you get the time later in the game. I will, however, make a better attempt at explaining it too.

[Auro]

if you’re town, perhaps you should realize that I won’t play the same way in every game and not having the mental capacity to “perform” to your standards does not mean I’m scum????????

My expectation of subpar performance from you out of lack of mental capacity is different from what I feel in game, though.

[Auro]

Like Joqiza, Chennis, AL they're all talking about various things apart from {Auro!scum} and I'm basically just OK with my own lim and asking you to engage with anything else to allow me to correct my read of you if I'm wrong, and instead you just continue to pop in to call my reasoning bad and that I'm scum. I've already outlined how I'd like to correct a potentially wrong sort on you and you just ignored it, and you're continuing to attack me, why act surprised that my read isn't changing?

[Auro]

make a case.

Here ya go:
1. Lilith as town makes deep, pointed attacks on slots to sort them. She's had a decent presence this game, yet that sort of scumhunting engagement only seemed to be present in the first half of the game and simmered down later. She was very comfortable with the townblock.
2. She wasn't really pushing any slot because of a professed lack of involvement in reading the game (which is fine, and I don't dispute is the truth) however her desire to have Johnny elim'd seems incongruent with that. She claims that it was apathy, but I don't expect apathy in that context to necessarily end the day sooner - and this was at a point where she had unarticulated but multiple reasons to suspect me.
3. She has been only been focusing on my reasoning on her today and does not talk about anything else, which to me indicates that she's panicking for my post-flip scenario where I discredit the townreads she's garnered.
4. None of the townreads on her are on any convincing reasoning (change my mind if this is inaccurate).
5. Scum will have to have bussed in my envisioned LimLo(-1) and scum are also motivated to bus (because Johnny) and most other bus candidates are eeeeeeh given (2).

[Auro]

and I don’t particularly care what you want. I have been trying to sort you but you have given me no reason to think you are coming from a genuine place. I think you’re scum so of course I’m going to try to get you eliminated, how is that scummy? why should I care what your read on me is?

if you’re town, perhaps you should realize that I won’t play the same way in every game and not having the mental capacity to “perform” to your standards does not mean I’m scum????????

Then this is an unhelpful question.

[Auro]

@Auro I will legit just vote you though if you don't start posting coherently.

Which part is

incoherent

?

[Auro]

Ooh this is gonna be exciting.

[Auro]

I am considering the proposition to do auro->shirou->flopz if shirou swears up and down today that they are scumclaiming tomorrow if they don’t self-vote after being wrong on auro

I swear up and down today it's a scumclaim as long as Auro happens today (in real life).

Why IRL? Weren't you giving time for Joqiza/Chennis/AL to come around on the deal?

[Auro]

my thesis of this game is completely wrong. I'm negative utility for town in that scenario.

Also I'd like you to add
"And the negative utility is totally on me" to that post, too, lol

[Auro]

?
(Sorry Joqiza)

[Auro]

have my other teammate BUS ME

To be fair, I think Firebringer would be pretty happy planning to stage a rap battle as scum theater.

[Auro]

we've given you dozens of chances to engage us and you really haven't taken them. and a thousand other things that i'm sure we all know

I'm sad that you say this.

[Auro]

I think if people are going to quicklim me and then say that I ignored everyone / didn't take any chance to engage with anyone I will be quite disappointed myself. I feel like I've been doing that sufficiently.

[Auro]

I think Auro, regardless of his alignment, engaged us quite a lot.

Yo thanks <3

[Auro]

In particular is there something you feel I have left unanswered to you, specifically?

[Auro]

i will say that i dont think you've been exploring the motivations of what people have been doing this game. i think there's a lot of good stuff to call out that you should've been calling out, at least from my pov. in no way did i mean that you were playing poorly or whatever, just that i thought it was unfortunate there were things i expected to happen and didnt see if you were town

I simply think I view the game very differently than you are.

auro can i get your read on shirou?

This will be spicy: town

[Auro]

Auro does seem to be spewing final thoughts or anything

doesn't seem*

I don't really town read what Auro is doing, I do think it's a bit emotionally charged because eliminations are never pleasant on active players.

I was a little emotional at Chennis' previous accusation but I am otherwise detached.

My spicy hypothesis for Lilith's partner was Menalque.

[Auro]

then why allow two mislims to go thru?

Am I the one "allowing" things to go through?

[Auro]

I'm fine with my elim today but if y'all are rushing a lim on me you can't really expect me to convince people of my agenda, right?

[Auro]

Again you're just expecting me to generically "fight the wagon if you're town!!" with "LOGIC!" but I really don't know what that would entail when I already conceded that the logic isn't the problem with a lot of the case.

[Auro]

why not start with "half the playerlist isnt here and hasnt checked in guys chill with the speed??" do you really think we're going to be in the best position for d3/d4 if you don't at least try to delay it and let people like mathblade and flopz chime in?

Obviously

I think you should chill with the speed! I

want

to delay it and have my teammates pitch in, too!

[Auro]

why not start with "half the playerlist isnt here and hasnt checked in guys chill with the speed??" do you really think we're going to be in the best position for d3/d4 if you don't at least try to delay it and let people like mathblade and flopz chime in?

Obviously

I think you should chill with the speed! I

want

to delay it and have my teammates pitch in, too!

so why're you just sitting here and going "alright well i guess im dead " instead of delaying it??

Okay and how would I be delaying it?

If there was X method to delay it I'd be very very interested in delaying it as scum much more than town? I don't resign as scum. I was scum in a near mechanical loss and I still tried to fight it just for the kicks (of course, we still lost, mechanics)

[Auro]

i don't think you could've done it NOW but i think you could've done it anytime from a long time ago to a short while ago

Buuuut this assumes less interest in doing so as town compared to scum which you've got flipped so...

"I could as scum but also as town and differs from my townplay" I don't think there's a very particular distinction between my scum and townplay where I could make concrete rebuttals to reads on this basis.

[Auro]

Inb4 someone "apathy" votes

[Auro]

intent to hammer after work

Oooooooh kay this is pretttttyyyy scummy

i dunno. maybe it's not fair that i'm asking you to fight to the end. but i think you're pretty invested in this game as well, no?

I am, but I'm a lot more detached than you (or even I) expect myself to be emotionally. I'm really glad that it's this way though, because the opposite was what caused me to burn out before I took a break.

[Auro]

Did no one notice Math's pop in to intent to hammer?!

[Auro]

Well I think I'mma sleep, GL town if I'm lim'd overnight.

by the way if anyone contests that im the best spammer they're getting absolutely DESTROYED

If my posts were all useless then they were all spam and hence I am the best spammer, CHECK AND MATE.

[Auro]

Hello! Final reads: Shirou town, avoid Flopz and go for Lilith first, also have a look at Mena closer before LimLo

[Auro]

Peace oooooooout!

[Auro]

GG guys, this was fun

[Auro]

Proud to have had you as a buddy Auro!

10/10 would scum again with you!

Absolutely. Was a lot of fun, even though it ended fast.