Newbie 1546: Binary Trolls (Game Over!)
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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Hello everybody. I've done a quick read-through and will post ISO-based reads and place a vote...hopefully tomorrow."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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Spoiler: ISO reads
VOTE: Carli
That's L-2.
Questions:
@GiF:Why the unvote without a revote?
@Shiro:If you were to vote right now, who would you vote?
@lolbabe:Are you an alt?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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Also,
@lolbabe:why no vote with #121? I get that you said you didn't want to vote without her showing up, but why not?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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@Shiro:Any thoughts on this:
In post 139, toolenduso wrote:-#86, she asks if she should have thoughts based on four posts from Carli. For one...well, I mean, I found something to talk about in her first four posts. Two, that's a defensive phrasing. Instead of saying "I don't really have any thoughts on Carli yet" or some iteration of that it was "should I have thoughts after only four posts?" This pings for me."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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I want to do some more research and analysis on this game today but one little thing I want to start with is that I definitely don't see Nether and Shiro as partners. I've seen two out of three scum go after each other like this but they tended to be experienced and usually had day chat. Iirc newbies don't usually give day chat to scum."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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In post 185, Shiro wrote:In post 184, Netherspite wrote:I wonder why some people join the game they ain't interested to play.
ikr ?
Assuming this is directed at me given the timing -- just because I didn't post exactly when I said I was going to doesn't mean I'm not interested in the game.
Also,
It's tool, not toon. I only bring this up because it's useful sometimes to go back and ctrl + f a person's ISO for mentions of another player.
I'm working on a post now."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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OK so I looked at two Shiro newbie games: 1532 and 1533. She was scum in both. In 1532 she replaced in later in the game, in 1533 she started from the beginning. For that reason I won't use 1532 as a comparison.
I find some similarities between Shiro in this game and scumShiro in Newbie 1533 that could be more than just playstyle traits. One is this:
In post 37, Shiro wrote:tn5421 wrote:No, not necessarily. You neglect the possibility that Csareo might have something against this particular IC.
How can he dislike IC yet be glad one is onboard ? If he was glad an IC was here he wouldn't dislike them. And he was specific to say that voting him had nothing to do with his disdain with IC meaning it was a general felling toward them IC.
He disdain IC yet he is glad one is onboard. It is pretty contradictionary imo
In post 69, Shiro wrote:@GiF
How is he throwing it away ? Isn't it better to state it right away instead of when cornered about it ?
When cornered it is far more likely that people will shrug it as BS to escape. If pre stated he can re-direct to here if brought up and none can say anything cause he said so way before the matter arised.
I don't really see it as scummy since it can be townie that doesnt want to be mled cause of it or mafia taking precautions for playstyle, I just don't get how it counts throwing the defence away. It seems more as have the defence premade just in case.
Both of the above quotes are replies to other people talking about specific actions by another player. They both criticize the argument in the form of questions and they both serve to undermine the person's read by guessing at the player's intentions ("If he was glad an IC was here he wouldn't dislike them"/"When cornered it is far more likely that people will shrug it as BS to escape").
More importantly, they both address players that Shiro had no interest in voting. In the quote from 1533, she was criticizing Csareo but never voted him (not in D1 anyway). In the quote from this game she was criticizing GiF's reasoning on Nether and has shown no interest in voting either -- in fact, she's trusting enough of GiF to not vote for Carli because GiF has a townread on Carli.
Scum motivation behind this playstyle would be subtly undermining town players' reads without strongly committing to either side of the argument/chasing any of the players involved and thus putting herself in the spotlight.
Lest anybody take this the wrong way, I don't see this as damning evidence. Since Shiro doesn't have any completed town games we can't compare her townplay to this for a better meta analysis and we thus can't rule out the possibility that this is just something Shiro always does.
Another similarity between scumShiro and Shiro in this game: hesitation to vote/taking a long time to vote.
Another similarity between 1533 and this game: Shiro's belief in policy-lynching lurkers.
A dissimilarity: I can't find any D1 examples in 1533 of Shiro acting defensive like she has in this game. I haven't read in-depth though so I could be wrong about this.
So ultimately the meta comparison does a little bit to confirm my suspicion of Shiro, but it's not enough for me to vote her right now.
I plan on doing Carli next. I'm pretty sure she only has one other completed game, but she's my strongest scumread so I want to see what's there."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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@GiF: That's one day before deadline and you don't have a vote on anyone right now -- could you tell us who's at the top of your scum list?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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OK so Carli's meta is really not ideal for forming a read. She's completed one other game (Newbie 1527), in which she was a VT, she replaced in D2 and had exactly eight posts, one of which was "hi, catching up now." So obviously it's not a great basis for meta reading, but every little piece of evidence helps.
Carli hits the ground running in that game, quickly analyzing the game and dropping a vote. Unfortunately this can't be treated as distinct from this game because her scum reads in that game were based on the D1 lynch and in this game Carli didn't have the benefit of looking back at a lynch to look at the wagon. Notably, she pegged one of the scum immediately (That would be 5-off. The other one she scumread, PV, turned out to be town).
Very notably, Carli claims VT in her fourth post (#989). This is done in the midst of her receiving heavy questioning from other players thus looks very similar to her VT claim in #98 in this game:
In post 989, Carli wrote:PeregrineV
1) You're right in saying Iz had 3 people to vote for. Myself, you and 5-Off, but it goes without saying that the both of you (and especially you) were his biggest scum read. I know for a fact that he was wrong about me because I am a VT (yes I just claimed)
In post 98, Carli wrote:Anyway, I didn't have a RVS vote because in all honesty I didn't have a breathing space to do so, as soon as the game started GiF came for me and one by one people started questioning me (not all of course). So all of my posts have been dedicated to answering your questions, I could have started the game with a random vote instead of the intro I chose, but that is not mandatory practice (RVS), and if you want to lynch me because I don't have a random vote which encourages a lollynch then please by all means go ahead and lynch me, and give scum 1 free VT that they don't have to kill in order for them to ultimately win the game.
She doesn't exhibit the same sort of defensiveness under pressure in that game that she does in this game...except when she's responding to the people she had as scumreads. So while thatcouldfunction as evidence that Carli is scum in this game, it's also very possible that townCarli is just in a very different situation here.
I'm starting to doubt my read a little."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 201, Shiro wrote:@MOD Can we get an extension since almost everyone is MIA and we will probably have lots of replacements in a bit ?
Generally speaking, a mod will give a deadline extension if a replacement comes in soon before deadline, but won't necessarily give an extension just because people are inactive or on V/LA."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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toolenduso Mafia Scum
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In post 243, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Tool is attractive
Huh. That's a new one.
In post 243, JohnnyFarrar wrote:@tool when making a meta argument, you also have to show me that they don't act the same as town. Since (as you said) you can't do this, I'm wondering why you even bothered? Same with Carli a bit later.
Part of it was because there wasn't a whole lot going on in the game and I was looking to flesh out my reads. Part of it was because I like doing meta to fill out and/or challenge my scumreads. Sometimes I find things that push me into being convinced and sometimes I find things that make me reconsider. In this case, I knew going in that I wouldn't be able to pull a whole lot of meaning out of it, but I figured it was at least something to look at that hadn't already been posted.
In post 243, JohnnyFarrar wrote:@tool when reading Carli's game did you notice if she had a lot of manners? Like did she say "please" and "excuse me" and the like?
Not really, no. Why?
I'm weighing this Shiro vote in my head. It definitely looks weird to me but I don't know why scum would wait until that moment, when it would look more suspicious than ever, to switch their vote to the leading wagon."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 218, Netherspite wrote:Also,@BlueBloodedToffee, I've read some game with your participation and I loved your signature Totally agree with that, people can manipulate their meta.
Uh...what? What about #195, where you helped fill out my meta analysis?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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UNVOTE: TGGC
I would like to hear from GiF before we lynch."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Because I'm paranoid of GiF and I'm not 100% sold on TGGC being scum. So if TGGC flipped town and we gave scumGiF the benefit of not having to weigh in on the current state of affairs before we hammered, I feel like that would be very bad for town."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 284, Luca Blight wrote:I know you were asked why you unvoted, but isn't this post counter-intuitive as it could affect the way GIF does respond to this situation (if he is scum) because he will now be aware of your paranoia and intentions behind unvoting?
By giving his opinion on the wagon, scumGiF would be forced to take a stand he doesn't really believe in. This adds to the record of evidence throughout the game. I don't think knowledge of my paranoia of him adds any pressure that isn't already inherent in the situation. Scum, especially when they have as much experience as GiF, are well aware that town are paranoid of them.
In post 284, Luca Blight wrote:There are a couple of others (Victor, Toffee) who haven't weighed in on this either, does that equally bother you, or are you more interested in GIF?
I'm most interested in GiF because I have some standing suspicion of him. Ideally we should know where everyone stands but GiF is a priority for me right now becauseifhe's scum and TGGC is town, GiF's in a pretty cozy spot atm. Toffee has a vote on somebody else so that counts as having weighed in on the TGGC wagon imo. Victor should weigh in too though now that you mention it.
In post 284, Luca Blight wrote:In the unlikely event of TGGC flipping Town, would GIF gain towncred based on his contributions so far?
Possibly, yeah. If nothing else it would give Shiro more of a reason to trust GiF's reads because he was right about the Carli/TGGC slot.
In post 284, Luca Blight wrote:You say you aren't completely sold on TGGC being scum, does that mean you are considering pushing another wagon?
I don't have any particular person I'm more interested in lynching right now, but I plan on reviewing some slots tonight and revisiting my reads."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 287, toolenduso wrote:I plan on reviewing some slots tonight and revisiting my reads.
This will have to wait until tomorrow."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I'm going to approach this with the perspective that the doc claim is probably legit, especially since it came at L-2.
Looking at all the votes on Carli/TGGC, I'm thinking Nether's actually looks the worst. Here's Nether's posting arc:
Spoiler: Selected Nether posts about Carli/TGGC
There is a definite town explanation for this posting arc, but there's also a very believable scum explanation: that Nether kept Carli at arm's length throughout the game hoping that the mislynch would go through without his help and that after TGGC replaced in he either felt that the wagon was in need of some pushing or he saw an opportunity to attach himself to the wagon without arousing too much suspicion.
Part of that is the wording of the post in which he votes TGGC: "Hmm, it seems that Carli also did all the things I accused Shiro for: not scumhunting and playing defensively." It kind of reads like somebody who has decided they are going to move their vote and is looking for an explanation after the fact.
Then there's this:
In post 274, Netherspite wrote:So you've read every post yet you don't know that Carli already claimed and it was broadly discussed?
Very well. I'm happy with my vote on you then.
Which seems shallow to me and could be scum worried that they look bad because of their vote and trying to shore up their reasoning.
VOTE: Netherspite"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Victor I don't know if you're done catching up but I'd really like you to vote or at least list some top suspects."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 420, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:One scum is in Tool/Johnny purely because stats say that replacements in Newbie games are most likely to be done by scum.
So I misunderstood what you were saying at first and thought you meant that newbies who replace out in newbie games are more likely to be scum, so I compiled this list:
In Newbie 1375, daemon385, the-duck and kewlben are three newbies who replaced out and were town.
In Newbie 1376, timreeves7 and ravenwing are two newbies who replaced out and were town.
In Newbie 1378, crazzygoat and paradigm are two newbies who replaced out and were town.
In Newbie 1379, slyther, manilai and future are three newbies who replaced out and were town.
...then I saw that what you really said was that any replacement in a newbie game is more likely to be scum. I still think the list I compiled is enough to refute you because it shows that there are obviously lots and lots of exceptions to the rule you're scumhunting by. Also, just to get my list a little closer to what you're talking about: I listed 10 replacements total, and the total number of replacements in those four games was 20 (note: I'm not counting all of the people in 1376 that were replaced before the game started). Of those remaining, some turned out to be scum and some turned out to be town (I didn't include non-newbies who replaced out in my list). That means that less than half of the total replacements in the games I listed were scum, meaning that the majority of replacements were town. If youreallywanted to, we could analyze the numbers and come up with a replacement rate for scum vs. a replacement rate for town. But my point stands -- there are lots of exceptions to this and therefore it shouldn't be used to determine who you want to lynch.
As to this point:
In post 424, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Most newbie games don't have 4 replacements.
I looked at four games with a total of 20 replacements not counting those who were replaced before the game started. That's an average of five replacements per game.
Bottom line, I think you need to add some more evidence if you want people to take your reads seriously.
I will read up and post some more tonight."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 432, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739
Check out the replacement stats in this thread.
Hang on now. What those stats say is that scum slots in newbies have at least one replacement 39.8% of the time, while town slots in newbies have at least one replacement 31.9% of the time.
So scum slots are 8% more likely to be replaced -- that's not a very big gap, and I think it's very likely based on those statistics that you could find a game where only town replaced out. As a matter of fact, one of the ones I listed had only town slots replaced.
You need to show why the two slots you're looking at are more likely to be scum slots as opposed to the slots that haven't been replaced."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Yeah I can do that tonight."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 438, JohnnyFarrar wrote:My plan right now is to go back and pick apart the Nether cases (if they're as forgettable as they seem to be) and win those two over to a Shiro lynch and then hope Blue takes his head out of his ass.
My biggest reason for not wanting to lynch Shiro is her vote on TGGC in #215. Give me an explanation for scumShiro doing that."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Town:
-TGGC: For the doc claim and the circumstances in which he did it.
-JohnnyFarrar: I didn't feel strongly either way about lolbabe, but I get nothing but towny vibes from Johnny. Posts like #368 and #438 demonstrate a towny mindset and a desire to get town to work together productively.
Null town:
-Luca Blight: I get towny vibes from his posts (he appears to be genuinely scumhunting), but nothing that makes me say "I don't see how this could come from scum." The buddying argument with nether also has potential scumminess behind it, preventing me from making Luca a full town read.
-Shiro: While I agree that Shiro looks scummy through most of her ISO, it's hard for me to see her vote on TGGC coming from scum. It just feels unnecessarily risky and weird for scum to pull.
-BlueBloodedToffee: While his play is definitely anti-town (using statistical theory to proclaim that scum has to be in one of two slots, advocating voting lurkers, not explaining his reads when asked), I don't see this play coming from scum. Usually scum try to look good -- that's how you don't get caught. Doing things that seem like they will deliberately piss people off is not something I think I've seen very many scum do.
Null:
-GuyInFreezer: Still paranoid of this slot by unable to find anything all that incriminating in the ISO.
Null scum:
-VictorDeAngelo: Whether the lurking was intentional or not can never be shown, but I don't like his catch-up attempts. He's analyzing like 3 out of every 5 posts rather than picking out the things he finds most important and generally what he's posting doesn't look like he's trying to catch scum. I agree with Johnny that policy-lynching lurkers gives town nothing to go on the next day, but I think lynching lurkers based on their play does give town something to go on.
Scum:
-Netherspite: If there were another category in between null scum and scum, that's where I would put Netherspite. His play overall gives me towny vibes. And yet I feel like his interactions with Carli could very easily come from scum interacting with town and I think his reasoning for his vote on Carli looks like scum who see an opportunity for a mislynch. See #311 for more detail."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 470, Luca Blight wrote:In post 469, toolenduso wrote:My biggest reason for not wanting to lynch Shiro is her vote on TGGC in #215. Give me an explanation for scumShiro doing that.
Because she was being questioned on why she wasn't voting, and probably thought she looked suspicious in not doing so at that stage?
OK, but then she chooses to vote a player she thinks she's putting at L-1? And who has just replaced in? That seems like a pretty conspicuous time to place a vote you've been holding behind your back.
In post 470, Luca Blight wrote:That vote actually did look a bit scummy to me, as it seemed to contradict her earlier reason for not voting that slot. The fact Carli turned from a lurker to being replaced should not have any effect on her read, it was bizarre.
Her reasoning was that it was scummy for Carli to have lurked out under pressure like she did. It's not great reasoning, but it's there. And it holds consistent with Shiro's perspective later in the game when she starts advocating to lynch VDA solely because he's lurking."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 477, Netherspite wrote:So basically you consider players town just because they're "too scummy to be scum"?
No. I'm saying that:
-Toffee isn't making an effort to look towny like I would expect scum to do.
-Shiro's vote on TGGC looks like a risky move that I wouldn't expect newbscum to make.
In post 477, Netherspite wrote:I'm starting to get crazy thought that the scum in my wagon is toolenduso, just because of his reasoning for townreads andthat weird attempt to push townie despite being said that he's wrong.
I do not understand the bolded part. Who's the townie you're referring to? And who said that who is wrong?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 473, Luca Blight wrote:I don't know, I don't like how she had posted (welcoming the replacements into the game) then Toffee asked why she wasn't voting, and she just basically complied and voted straight away.
I see what you mean, but to her credit there were other people questioning why she wasn't voting before Toffee and TGGC replaced in (#143, #188) and she didn't vote then.
Also to her credit, she said in the previous page (#176) that Carli replacing out would be a red flag for her.
In post 473, Luca Blight wrote:Why hadn't she voted in that initial post if that was her genuine intention when Carli replaced out? She also asked a question to TGGC to explain Carli's actions after her vote, putting him at L-1 before he'd even started. Why didn't she ask him before the vote to try and gauge his reaction?
These are good points, and part of the reason I'm not totally sold on Shiro being town.
In post 473, Luca Blight wrote:You wonder why would scumShiro make that vote, I'm failing to see why TownShiro would.
It makes sense to me in the context of this being Shiro's first game on MS as town. It's weird play but I can easily see it being done in that context."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 529, Netherspite wrote:I am that townie and the one who said you that you're wrong is JohnnyFarrar. Read his posts above.
So...you think that I should stop voting for a scumread because other people think I'm wrong about that scumread?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 539, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I don't explain town-reads.
OK, this is actually starting to bug me. This makes no sense and I feel like you're clinging to an arbitrary rule for no reason other than that it's a rule. Here's your reasoning for not explaining town reads:
In post 466, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Explaining town-reads accomplishes nothing. Anybody can fake a town-read, whereas it's a lot more difficult for scum to fabricate a scum-read. Therefore, I like people to explain their scum-reads rather than me explain a town-read.
OK, so that's a reason not to explain townreadsunless somebody asks you to.If explaining townreads doesn't accomplish anything, why not just humor the people who are asking you and do it? Is there some downside to explaining townreads I'm not seeing here?
There is a point to explaining townreads, because scum have to fake townreads just as much as they have to fake scumreads -- they have to make townreads look like they're coming from scumhunting and not from actual knowledge of the person's alignment."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 542, Netherspite wrote:You didn't refute his arguments so I assumed that you agree with them.
You are going to have a hard time playing mafia if you actually think this is true.
Also, could you point me to the post where Johnny refuted my points against Nether?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 549, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Nah, it's very easy to fake town-reads. 'X is town because town-vibes from their posting, they look like they're trying to scum-hunt, they're asking lots of questions, gut-read' etc etc. ANYBODY can easily fake a town-read.
It's much more difficult to create a scum-read on someone you KNOW to be town when you're scum.
Tell me what the downside is to explaining why you're townreading somebody.
In post 548, Netherspite wrote:iirc he quoted your own words that you see a genuine town motivation behind doing what I do but choose to believe more into scum motivation.
Yeah, he quoted it, but he didn't ask me any questions. All he said was "Oh this is easier than I thought" (#439). Was I really supposed to respond to that?
In post 548, Netherspite wrote:If you see both town and scum motivation behind some actions possible then why choosing one over another?
It's the combination of these things:
-A scum explanation fits well with your play. A town explanation also fits, but then there's...
-The timing of your jump onto the TGGC wagon and your position on that wagon.
-The wording of your post when you voted for TGGC, which made it seem like you were looking for a reason to vote that slot.
-Post #274, in which you say your conviction that the TGGC slot is scum has been strengthened because TGGC, who had just replaced in, wasn't reading carefully.
In post 591, JohnnyFarrar wrote:The explanation for scum Shiro doing that is too push an easy lunch that could've gotten away from her since that slot got replaced
I guess that's possible, but she said before the slot was replaced that if Carli replaced out that it would be a red flag for her. So she, as scum, would have actually been planning to shore up support for the wagon if it was replaced because she was afraid the wagon would get away from her?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Spoiler: Meta on Nether
tl;dr -- It's not a huge amount of evidence and I won't profess to have read Nether's ISO in 1534 in detail (it's even more dense than this one), but that looks to be about the only semi-useful thing I can pull from Nether's one completed game: he appears to be more OMGUSsy/defensive in this one.
In post 606, Netherspite wrote:Bananas34/Toolenduso-Null,slightlyleaning scumif any (because he's too tunneling me without a strong reason)
I'm responding to people questioning my case on you, not tunnelling."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 623, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Ok it's compromise time (unless one of the inactives magically shows up.
I will be on tomorrow. If it's coming down to the wire, then I'll talk compromise.
In post 625, Luca Blight wrote:I find it concerning that our alleged Doctor has not posted at all since claiming
I can see why a claimed doc would want to be close-lipped headed into the night phase."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 628, Luca Blight wrote:I will have a look back in the morning through all the reasoning, but I would appreciate a condensed version right here so we know where we stand.
Posts #311 and #603 both summarize my case against Nether. The most important bits are:
1. Nether's vote on TGGC in #267 looks like him pulling out a reason to vote TGGC after he's already made up his mind to vote that slot.
2. His back-up reasoning for his vote in #274 seems shallow and looks like something scum would do to shore up their reasoning for a vote because they're afraid they look bad."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Quick thoughts:
-Nether's #724 looks towny to me and is very much like some of his posting in his towngame I meta'd earlier.
-If Nether is town, that makes Shiro lookreallyscummy to me.
-VDA's last couple of posts have looked more towny to me.
-I would rather lynch Shiro than VDA.
I'm going to be busy for a few hours but I will be around before deadline, which is in the evening for me. When I get back to my computer I'm going to re-assess Shiro, Nether and VDA. Until then,
UNVOTE: Nether"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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OK I doubt I can even read the pages since I last posted before deadline. Can anybody catch me up and tell me what's happening right now?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I would like an explanation for lynching Luca, one for lynching Vic and one for lynching GiF.
None of those three are my top choices but they're all better than no lynching.
Also if anybody is able to do an unofficial votecount that would be helpful."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Blue, it seems like you went for Johnny because he didn't want to lynch Luca. That doesn't seem like great reasoning to me.
I'm not sure why Luca was on the table as a lynch option to begin with.
Who would be up for a Shiro lynch?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Lynch options:
-Luca has appeared town-ish to me throughout the game. He's OK as a lynch option but only for the reason that I don't feel strongly toward any one player being scum right now.
-Johnny has looked very town to me for a while now and I would not want to lynch him. Him not wanting to lynch Luca doesn't mean they're partners or whatever is being suggested.
-Nether is iffy as a lynch option.
-Victor I'm hesitant to lynch because he would be a very easy target for scum to pick, and...
-That's exactly what Shiro did, to the extent that it looks like scum trying to avoid suspicion.
-Blue is not playing how I would expect scum to play in this situation and I wouldn't really want to lynch him.
-GiF is OK as a lynch option. He's also an easy target for scum, but there hasn't been nearly as much momentum toward lynching him so that makes me feel better about lynching that slot.
-TGGC isn't getting lynched today.
Lynch preferences:
1. Shiro
2. Luca
3. Nether
4. GiF
5. VDA
6. Toffee
7. Johnny
8. TGGC"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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VOTE: Shiro"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Honestly I didn't really review that list much before I posted it given the pace of the game right now. I consider you #4 or #5 Nether."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I really do not want to lynch Johnny today. I seriously don't understand this wagon."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Why is this flashwagon better than the one on Shiro?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I have Luca and Johnny as likely town, yes."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Luca, why did you vote Shiro if you have a gut feeling she's town?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Blue, you were pushing for Luca earlier. Would you still be willing to vote Luca?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I don't feel like Johnny is going to flip scum. But I also don't really see any other wagon going through right now and I know we're going to start losing people who have to go to bed soon.
intent to hammer Johnny
Johnny, please claim."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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VOTE: Johnny
If you're town, I'm sorry."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Well Iwasgoing to make a case for lynching Shiro today...
But now VDA is at the top of my scum list. It's partly PoE and partly based on his D1 play. Here we go:
TGGC -- The cop flip lends even more evidence that we are in setup number two (mafia RB, town doc, town cop), which lends even more credibility to TGGC's claim.
Netherspite -- On top of Nether posting a few very towny-looking posts yesterday, his post-lynch posting seals him up as likely town for me. What newbscum would actually stay up that late at night, after a lynch had already been achieved, to "see the flip" when he already knew what the flip was going to be? He would have to be very, very clever for newbscum to deliberately pull something like that.
Blue -- I've already mentioned it, but I just feel like Blue isn't trying to look towny at all. He's not putting on an act like I would expect scum to, and on top of that he could have hopped on a much easier lynch to push toward the end of the day phase yesterday than the ones he was pushing without compromise (Luca at first and then Johnny).
Luca -- Luca generally gave me town vibes during D1. I questioned him a little after his quick jump onto the Shiro flashwagon toward the end of the day phase, but looking back on his behavior during that whole end-of-day period, it fits. Also, Luca's switch from Shiro to VDA in #841 makes no sense to me if Luca is scum. Shiro was at L-1 at the time. Especially knowing that I was going to be online soon and that I had already stated my suspicion of Shiro, why in the hell would scumLuca go from putting Shiro at L-1 to voting for VDA, when there wasn't really pressure on him as a result of his Shiro vote? This looks like town being paranoid and indecisive.
VDA -- Had his vote on Shiro going into the last-minute compromise session at the end of D1. Kept his vote there and didn't contribute much to the discussion. This looks like scum standing on the sidelines and keeping his vote in a safe place. It makes so much sense for scum to act this way in the position we were in at the end of D1.
GiF/Goodmorning -- Lurking is null, but PoE and early vaguely scummy vibes from GiF lead me to put this slot at #2 on my scum list.
By the way, I put together this little chart keeping track of how people's reads throughout the end of D1 compromise session, beginning with my last post (it was in the 700s somewhere I believe) and ending with the end of the day (I kept Johnny off and took Shiro off upon seeing the flip; GiF isn't on there because he didn't participate):
-Luca: Wants to lynch Shiro (#776), would also consider a Blue lynch (#802), switches vote from Shiro (L-1) to VDA (#841) and says Shiro looks more town, re-votes Shiro in #939, says he has no idea who scum is in #963, votes for VDA in #975, votes for Blue in #1006, says he would vote Johnny in #1036, says GiF could be scum in #1054, votes VDA in #1065, votes Shiro in #1093, votes Johnny in #1118, says he has a gut feeling that Shiro is town in #1130
-Blue: Thinks Luca and VDA are scum (#784), has Shiro as biggest townread (#803), Nether, myself and TGGC are townreads but Johnny and GiF are likely scum (#818), switches vote to VDA in #970, votes Luca again in #994, votes Johnny in #1034
-Nether: Thinks Luca is scum (#786), has vote on Shiro but unvotes in #938, has decided to trust Shiro in #962 and now is willing to lynch VDA, says Johnny doesn't look scummy in #990, votes Johnny in #1109
-VDA: Scumreading Shiro and Blue (#877), has vote on Shiro, goes to sleep with vote there
VOTE: Victor"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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By "my last post" I meant my last post before most of the player list got on at once and started trying to compromise toward the end of the day. It was post #770."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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Also I feel like Shiro being NK'ed might have been because Shiro was pushing VDA for like, most of D1."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 1179, VictorDeAngelo wrote:Tool before Shiro died who was your top scumread(s)?
Shiro. You were up there as well.
In post 1180, Netherspite wrote:It was my fault Shiro got nightkilled.
I asked a number of questions that helped the scum understand that he is the cop, before I realized it myself.
Blue and me were defending him because we realized that he's cop.
Blue did it earlier than me, and thats why he did post insane things and didnt want to explain his townreads.
Well that pretty much flew over my head. I'm going to have to mull this over.
I'm not assuming, I'm saying that a cop flip lends more credibility to the theory that we're in setup two, and thus adds credibility to TGGC's claim. It's still possible that we're in setup B, yes."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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I'll just post my thoughts in here really quick and hopefully get into this a little deeper later.
TGGC looks bad right now. This has nothing to do with what is or is not in the role PM -- the foundation of the game of mafia, the whole purpose the game exists, is that scum have more knowledge than town. How can younotknow that scum would know each other's roles? Especially in a standardized, non-bastard setup like a Newbie? To spell out the argument here, it looks like scumTGGC tried to fake his lack of knowledge about what scum know in an attempt to make it look impossible that he's scum. Then he overdid it and faked not knowing something that even town should know.
Now, to his credit, it appears that this is TGGC's first game since 2011. So it's conceivable he just overlooked this.
But that's not even the scummiest-looking thing about TGGC right now. What's worse is his reaction to the situation. If you're town then why not just admit your mistake once you've realized it? Instead, TGGC starts accusing Nether of being scum (on very shaky grounds) and tries to divert attention away from himself. This is textbook scummy behavior.
Let's say we're in setup B, where the only PR town has is a cop. ScumTGGC gets pushed to the brink of a lynch D1 and says "ah screw it, I'll just out the town PR on my way out and then my partner can at least NK them and be in a better position after I'm gone." That would explain why Carli claimed VT at first, only to have TGGC come into the slot and claim doc later.
All that being said, I feel like it's better not to lynch TGGC today. Best case scenario, we lynch his partner and if he flips RB then we are definitely in a setup with a doc and we've given ourselves another day before LyLo to figure out the second scum. Worst case scenario, we mislynch today and then tomorrow we can massclaim and that will give us more indication as to whether TGGC is lying."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 1295, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Hey, look at this guy saying exactly what Tool has just said only way before he said it.
Cool, huh?
...and?
In post 1302, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that TGGC could be town.
Why?
In post 1296, Netherspite wrote:Personally I didn't like how tool first agreed to the arguments against TGGC, added some more and then attempted to get the attention off TGGC for now.
Hey you can talk about TGGC all you want, I just don't have a whole lot more to say about him right now. The whole role PM argument is pretty much eating its own tail at this point imo."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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@Nether: Post #599 looks like the time you realized that Shiro was cop. Then in posts #708 and #724 you're making a case for Shiro being scum.
Please explain this.
As for the other people who say they realized that Shiro was cop during D1...
Luca voting Shiro when he thought she was cop is weird. But why, if scum, would he admit to seeing that Shiro was the cop knowing that he voted Shiro the day before? Why not just feign innocence? This doesn't change my townread on Luca.
I tend to think that Blue being the first person to acknowledge that Shiro was cop makes him look more towny, but I don't put it outside the reach of scum to do so. This doesn't change my townread on Blue.
So PoE and the stuff I said in #1176 still make VDA my top choice for lynching today."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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@Nether: all I did was agree that it's best not to lynch TGGC today and then explain my reads so as to show why my lynch preference is VDA. By the way, you were asking me to explain my reads.
So how does any of that look more to you like me trying to get attention off of TGGC than me doing what makes sense in this situation?
I'm saying this because I'm pretty sure you're town and there's still two scum alive, so we need to work together.
@Everyone who wants to lynch TGGC today: Tell me why it's a good idea to lynch TGGC today when we could get more information about his slot through night actions?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 1329, Netherspite wrote:It was more like a feeling. Also I don't agree about VDA. Is there anything except PoE that makes you think he's scum?
Yes, this:
In post 1176, toolenduso wrote:VDA -- Had his vote on Shiro going into the last-minute compromise session at the end of D1. Kept his vote there and didn't contribute much to the discussion. This looks like scum standing on the sidelines and keeping his vote in a safe place. It makes so much sense for scum to act this way in the position we were in at the end of D1.
Also, his first few catch-up posts did not demonstrate a mentality of seriously trying to find scum. His later catch-up posts did, but that can be explained by the fact that he made them after I had pointed out that I didn't like his first couple of catch-up posts.
In post 1329, Netherspite wrote:Also, how exactly can we get more information about TGGC slot through night actions?
IMO, the best case scenario for town today is this:
-TGGC is actually the doc and we lynch scum today.
-The surviving scum almost certainly kills TGGC because not doing so means they are risking putting themselves farther away from victory either because of a no kill or a doc protect. Then we have an extra day to find the remaining scum.
There's also a possible (though unlikely) auto-win scenario in the cards if we lynch scum today that isn't TGGC. I won't say what it is because the auto-win scenario can only happen if scum make a mistake and I'd rather not say what that mistake is.
The auto-win scenario and the best case scenario both can't happen if we lynch TGGC today.
To avoid a situation like yesterday, I'll lay my cards on the table right now: if it's between TGGC and a no-lynch or if it's between TGGC and somebody I'm strongly townreading at the end of the day, I'll vote for TGGC. But I'd rather lynch Victor today."Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 1355, goodmorning wrote:blah blah stalling not alignment-indicative blah blah one month blah VT blah Shadows and Lights.
GM did you just claim?
In post 1358, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:How are people not seeing GM scum.
I can see it, but why is GM a better lynch than VDA?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 1360, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Because VDA is town.
When did you start townreading VDA and why?
In post 1375, Netherspite wrote:In the very unlikely case TGGC is the real Doc, there also should be a Mafia Roleblocker and thus scum does not really need to kill the Doc to avoid no-kills.
You're right. I thought RB couldn't perform the kill and also do an RB in one night, but:
The wiki wrote:The Mafia Roleblocker is allowed to both submit the nightkill and perform his Roleblocker action.
Also,
In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6371490#p6371490]post 1361[/url], Netherspite wrote:I'd rather go for 99% scum lynch for today that would give us another 2 attempts to find the remaining scum.
What makes you 99% sure about TGGC? What doubt exists in your mind and why is it so small? Basically I'd just like you to lay out your read on him.
Would you be willing to lynch VDA?"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437-
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In post 1382, Netherspite wrote:@toolenduso
You gotta be kidding me guys. Again the same mistake.
You were a Mafia Goon in Newbie 1450. Your partner was a Mafia Roleblocker.
After you have been lynched, your partner was submitting both roleblock and kill at nights.
And you claim you didn't know it's possible? Come on!
Scum team is TGGC + toolenduso
Yeah, you're right. I saw how well it worked out for my buddy so I thought I would give it a try to get some towncred.
That, or I forgot whether RB could perform a night kill and a block in the same night because that's not always true depending on which setup you're playing.
In post 1384, Luca Blight wrote:@Tool -You ask Nether to lay out his read of TGGC (even though it is pretty evident if you've been following the thread), could you do the same with your Victor read?
Here is a summary for you:
Spoiler: If anybody else asks me to explain my read on Victor, I'm just going to point them to this post (unless he does something else scummy)"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437