Open 849 - Panic Room! -- Game over!
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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hello fire! good to see you again!In post 502, fireisredsir wrote:hi ari! : )-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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mmm I somewhat disagree - I think we can have higher chance of hitting the bomb on d1 if we use some preflips/vcaIn post 509, skitter30 wrote:- preflips are bad
- using them to assume that anyone is the bomb is bad-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Roden's point about bella makes sense to me.In post 518, skitter30 wrote:Although i'm kinda baffled why you think behaving that way towards the slot is partner-y or why you think scum-me and scum-catbou both choose to interact with a partner in the exact same way
Also why do u scumread fire? Because of bella?
The weird place you and catboi treat the slot.
and fire's posts just don't feel very like town!fire.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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ok fair but I still don't really know what your read on the slot is and fire's posted a few times alreadyIn post 523, skitter30 wrote:
I didnt think there was enuf to read bella off of off that one post. It was a bad post but didnt lock-scum her or anything, and she left before i could ask her abt it moreIn post 521, Aristeia wrote:it's not really about the same way - it's like a negative void space where a read should be but isn't.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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um I don't see it in your iso.In post 527, skitter30 wrote:Oh i thought i said he was townie? Did i not say that?
can you expand on why you read him as town?-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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to me this actually increases his bomb equity as it expands the number of possible universes with bomb!fireIn post 526, skitter30 wrote:same conclusions from vastly different angles-
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Aristeia SheSurvivor
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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If there are more interactions with more players that point towards Fire!Bomb - it decreases the probability of any specific team solve being correct but it increases the probability that fire is the bomb.
Perhaps I am wrong about my teamread of Fire!bomb and Ydra is correct about her teamread of Fire!bomb, but that still means Fire is the bomb.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivor
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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I think you'd be fine bussing him if he wasn't a bomb.In post 537, catboi wrote:1. Do you think I deliberately avoid a teammate in that way?-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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I'm just talking about the p-value for Fire being a bomb.In post 543, skitter30 wrote:
No, that's not how teamreads work, you're like starting with the assumption that fire is bomb and working backwardsaIn post 534, Aristeia wrote:If there are more interactions with more players that point towards Fire!Bomb - it decreases the probability of any specific team solve being correct but it increases the probability that fire is the bomb.
Perhaps I am wrong about my teamread of Fire!bomb and Ydra is correct about her teamread of Fire!bomb, but that still means Fire is the bomb.
Do u scumread me or cat independantly of fire?
Or only as potential partners
The more team-reads/theories with Fire being a bomb pop out, the more likely it becomes he is a bomb, not less likely.
I do scumread you/cat independently of the Fire associatives.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Catboi feels like he's less motivated than how he feels when he's town - he feels like tired mafia.In post 546, skitter30 wrote:No offense ari but i think ur fire bombread is somewhat flimsy, as if your reasoning for ur teamread
Pedit i dont really think it works that way
Ans i'm interested in ur scumreads of me/cat
You don't feel like you believe in your yeet push.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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because?In post 548, skitter30 wrote:I'm willing to give cat a bit-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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like look at your iso here:
viewtopic.php?t=88427&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
and compare it to your iso in this game vis-a-vis Catboi
why wouldn't I have worries you two are S/S?-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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In post 568, Roden wrote:
Being the first one to say this is +town.In post 376, catboi wrote:
Okay fine, towny postIn post 374, Roden wrote:
It's very angle shooty. Replace out after going VLA pings me. The slot was already getting scum read but wasn't going to be around to defend themself. If town or a Goon then it would be just be whatever, the wagon would probably dissipate anyway. But if you're the game ending role there's going to be a sense of responsibility and pressure to play well enough to not auto lose Day 1. So replacing out makes sense if you don't want to feel like you're letting your team down.In post 369, skitter30 wrote:
What's giving u thay vibe? Or at least, why alpha zombie specifically?In post 365, Roden wrote:Kinda have a gut feeling that Fire is the venge bomb, or I guess Alpha Zombie with this flavor
Yeet's read on the slot also feels off. They're hard defending them on very little, but Fire is hard scum reading them back. It's a weird interaction that makes me think it's just damage control to give Fire better standing among the potential elim choices for the day. Yeet cuts off the Fire wagon before it can stabilize and starts taking the heat instead by making odd/chaotic posts. But because Fire is one of the first players voting Yeet and cased them early, it won't look bad for Fire in the case of a red Yeet flip. It would be reasonable to say Yeet is just trying to pocket Fire in that case.
Yes, this assumes a lot and I'm seeing associatives/pre-flipping two people way too early. But their interactions don't feel natural. Fire's case on Yeet comes out too hard and too fast, and Yeet isn't reacting to any of it and is just repeating "Fire town" over and over.
Not letting Yeet dodge the question here shows a solvey mindset.In post 394, catboi wrote:VOTE: Yeet
I don't really care, why did you think that, even if momentarily, and why did you move on from it?
I just don't think scum makes this post.In post 556, catboi wrote:For the last time, I am not demotivated this game, or feigning it. I have been intentionally reserved but that's not the same thing.
1. There's no reason why S!catboi wouldn't say that about your post if he thinks it is Townie - he also does not support your conclusion and vote for Fire but he didn't express why at the time.
2. If Yeet is town and Fire is a Bomb then he has every reason to push one end of the pair and not the other - flipping yeet!town would protect fire!bomb
3. I don't think you have any basis for your third point, you'd have to explain it to me clearer why scum!him doesn't make such a post.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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wolfy pop inIn post 591, catboi wrote:The day 1 herosolve attempts are going to make me lose my mind. I cannot emphasize enough that trying to worldbuild around elaborate theories is significantly more likely to be wrong and unhelpful than making more individualized reads.
Ari's herosolve reads like a bad joke which makes me doubt its sincerity.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivor
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Have you read many games where Catboi is mafia? because I don't think any of these are good reasons to townread him because they feel like things he could easily fake.In post 616, Roden wrote:1. Catboi doesn't need to say anything at all tbh. To me it shows a town mindset because of the reasons why he thinks it's townie. He doesn't explain the read but you can tell why he thinks my post was townie.
2. I mean, yeah? If those were confirmed facts then sure, but I'm not about to pre-flip 4 out of 11 slots like that.
3. It's just a behavioral read. I just simply don't think he would feel the need to say that and then continue to reiterate that as scum.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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I don't really have a very good track record of reading umlautIn post 617, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
i still think i can get an umlaut wagon started and i still think scum!yeet + bomb!fire isn't likely. i wanna go bomb hunting.In post 609, Aristeia wrote:@HEM
if you're convinced fire!scum is covering for um!bomb, perhaps you could help us with yeeting Fire!scum? Surely if Fire flips Goon - we can get Um!bomb tommorrow.
how do you read umlaut?
If I had to guess off the top of my head I'd say town because I think his scum play is a bit better than what's present here.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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do you think he's actually going to yeet you successfully out of this game?In post 627, Roden wrote:Your scum read on me is weird and inconsistent. First you think I'm scum for not being proactive or trying to play the hero. Then I start posting and put forth a hero solve, and you scum read me for leaving my lurk phase and attacking LHF.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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are you town though? :<In post 758, Ydrasse wrote:i think ari is town-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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can you expand on your reasoning for wanting to yeet this slot?
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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I'm not very good at changing my mind about things so it feels pro-scum for them to leave Catboi alive for him to fight with me rather than to shoot him esp if he is on a wagon that flipped a town.
It feels like they removed him for a reason.
The first 2 inoculated are confirmed innocent but the third is not so I could see this happening because the person recruited into the room yesterday was mafia.
or perhaps they had a read that Catboi was reserved because he was a mason.
or perhaps they wanted to remove him to remove his voice because he was blocking pushes they want.
I like to think about why things happen.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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if i'm reading the setup correctly
we start with 2 town inoculated, they inoculated someone yesterday(unknown alignment)
so if this person they inoculated yesterday is a mafia goon or mafia bomb, they could shoot catboi(town inoculated) and today the mafia inoculated gets to pick someone to inoculate.
if they inoculate another mafia player - they could simply bus the bomb and win because there will be only 1 town inoculated and 2 mafia inoculated-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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actually I might not be reading this correctly
@Mod is the Inoculator always the same person? does it pass to the most recent inoculated player after Inoculator dies?-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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In post 773, Pavowski wrote:In post 770, Aristeia wrote:actually I might not be reading this correctly
@Mod is the Inoculator always the same person? does it pass to the most recent inoculated player after Inoculator dies?The most recent person to join the neighborhood gains the ability to recruit next day.
For example, if I get neighborized day 1, I choose the recruit for day 2.@Mod
ok so for example if the game starts with
Player A inoculator
Player B inoculated
and A incolulates Player C...
Will the new roles be :
Player A Inoculated
Player B Inoculated
Player C Inoculator ?
As in if Player A/B die, they flip as Town Inoculated?-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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well no because we can always try to avoid the bomb and kill the bomb last in that case.In post 774, Enchant wrote:If mafia recruited, we ARE fucked, as they can enforce Draw at minimum.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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also this rule is why your quickhammer is extremely bad enchant :<In post 1, Pavowski wrote:Inoculation is compulsive. If no inoculation has occurred by the time of the elimination, the mods will randomly select a non-inoculated player BEFORE the elimination occurs.
An inoculation given *after* a hammer will not be processed. Inoculation must occur before elimination. In this case the mods will randomly inoculate.
you should always give a chance for claim and for the inoculator to finalize decision.
if we randomly got a mafia added into the inoculation pool it is extremely bad :/-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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: (In post 805, catboi wrote:Tthanks for this experience, really made the whole thing feel worthwhile. Absolute shining stars. Glad I signed up for this one.
sorry you feel this way. it was fun to play with you while it lasted.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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In post 828, Umlaut wrote:Fuck. Sorry, everyone.
Given I got the (in retrospect terrible) Inocilation choice in just minutes before the elim I don't feel like "we had plenty of time" is really a reasonable complaint though. Wish I'd chosen better.
putting someone at E-1 before you and your partner finalized an inoc choice is really bad play and incredibly frustrating for everyone else.
I think even inoculating the dead person who is being eliminated is better atp than hipshooting.
hope you get better soon.-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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realistically we needed to get all of town online and ready to blitz whoever the recruit was.In post 801, fireisredsir wrote:ggwp! i guess i should have been more careful about voting. is the correct play there to wait for the inoculator to claim who they recruited and then lim there if there is no cc?
and it would have to be a coordinated town quickhammer at a time when monkey was offline so he could not submit a recruit choice.
leaving votes on was very bad-
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Aristeia SheSurvivorShe
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