Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Coral]

Hi everyone!! Very excited to play with you all

A couple quick thoughts on this setup. These are just my own assessments. I would of course love to discuss if anyone disagrees, I know a majority of you have played in previous runs.

1) On day 1, it is extremely beneficial to scum to be among the first to lock in their locations. Any early votes should be put under intense pressure and scrutiny.

2) On day 2, I think it also benefits scum a lot if there is an open consensus about the order of resolving the locations. It allows them to plan ahead, plant associatives, and be prepared for what's coming. I suggest being flexible.

[Coral]

do you think

there is great value

in turning the wall into a second gate?

What do you mean by that? put a top consensus townread there?

[Coral]

do you think

there is great value

in turning the wall into a second gate?

What do you mean by that? put a top consensus townread there?

like

i feel like

the benefit to me locking in keep would be to force the mafia to move me or concede the keep

whereas the main benefit to me locking in the wall would be turning the wall into a second gate

so i was wondering if you thought there was great value in that since it seems you've been thinking about the setup et cetera

It seems like there's an implied assumption here that you are or will be obvtown, is that what you're saying? What makes you special in that regard over anyone else, I guess is what I'm asking.

[Coral]

Coral should just solve the strat and then we should play mafia

I don't think I'm the best setup-strat-solver here. Maybe not even in the top half

I'm happy to get discussion going, though

[Coral]

I'm pretty indifferent at the end of the day. I think Gate would be pretty fun to run-back, and puts scum in between a rock and a hard place. I think Wall would be a bad fit but I'd get to play longer. I think Keep is really suited to my playstyle, but I want to hang around and enjoy the game for awhile and that tends to resolve early. It's a good place to quarantine me, but I'm also hoping that enough people have strong scumgames here that I get to go elsewhere.

I generally oppose Coral's suggestion and am curious to hear more of the reasoning behind it.

I had the same thought pregame that probably quarantining you to the one you are likely enjoy least is not as necessary in this run as the previous one.

Which suggestion do you disagree with? The flexible solve order, or the closely examining early decisioners?

[Coral]

2) On day 2, I think it also benefits scum a lot if there is an open consensus about the order of resolving the locations. It allows them to plan ahead, plant associatives, and be prepared for what's coming. I suggest being flexible.

This part. I strongly believe that more information/transparency is better for town in virtually every scenario. I don't think of scum planning, planting associatives, etc being bad things. Defense predicated on obscurity really defeats the entire point of mafia.

That's a reasonable (and unsurprising!) take. My belief from previous runs is that scum struggled the most when town did unexpected things in the midgame. I think a rigid solve order does put all of the pieces on the table, which allows for the more chess-like analysis of how things develop, and that's valid.

I think the reason I lean towards wanting to inject some areas of unpredictability here is that we really only have very few points of information gain compared to a standard game. The depth is very shallow, there's very few points where a flip or new piece of mechanical info will allow people to step back and reassess. There's a limited number of moves to be made in the game. I think if scum know what IC especially is thinking and where they want to go, it makes things fairly easy for them.

I'm open to disagreement, as I said, but that's my reasoning at least.

[Coral]

I quoted 33 because I wanted to ask about quarantining faker in the first game but then I decided to not flood a game that's already 90 mph but I guess I'm asking now. Isn't making a slot miserable -EV?

I think it is. It's definitely +MV, which I would prefer to avoid, even if it is at a minor cost of EV. I want this to be a low Miserableness Value game, if possible.

Faker suggested it in the previous game of this that she played, so it was on my mind that she likely would bring it up again, and I think it's more fun to let her frolick freely in the pastures of her dreams.

[Coral]

I probably prefer Keep, if it matters. Purely from a playstyle perspective, I think it's ideal to have patience and cooperation there, since scum NEED a town to vote first and vote wrong. I have more faith in those abilities of mine than in pure read abilities, at least.

Gate could be alright, I think I'm pretty bad at 1v1s but I would enjoy the solving based on a known flip aspect if I'm uncleared. Being the clear sounds like a lot of pressure

Wall is just standard and would be fine.

[Coral]

This might just be a function of me being tired/illiterate but I don't know why people think the Keep would make me miserable. I'm pretty indifferent on where to go, I'd rather defer to others' preferences. The downside is more just that it resolves early but shrug, I like games like Trust Fall and Undertale exactly for the townhunting mechanic.

Gate is nice because I might get to do similar even though I'm not a great clear, and I haven't been voted out as town since early 2017. I'm not the best clear but I'd love to have the ball in my (winter) court this game, and if someone is down and thinks they can break the streak I'd love to see you try!

I might have gotten the names mixed up and I also might be misinterpreting/misremembering a comment you made last time. I thought you said something along the lines of that you would not enjoy the Gate, but that you thought it was the most +EV place for you to go.

[Coral]

I would enjoy the solving based on a known flip aspect if I'm uncleared

Elaborate?

If you end up in the 1v1, you have one flipped scum from your POV to work with, prior to any games resolving. I think that sort of solving sounds appealing.

[Coral]

I think Coral would make this kind of suggestion as scum and after reviewing their answer I do scumlean this. I don't think she expected anyone to actually follow this and is mostly in it for the towncred.

My belief from previous runs is that scum struggled the most when town did unexpected things in the midgame. I think a rigid solve order does put all of the pieces on the table, which allows for the more chess-like analysis of how things develop, and that's valid.

I think the reason I lean towards wanting to inject some areas of unpredictability here is that we really only have very few points of information gain compared to a standard game.

The unpredictability happens mainly because players are open/talking and suddenly town players take the ball and individually run the other way unexpectedly. This is a function of the degree of transparency of the players, not of them hiding the ball.

Can you restate what you think my suggestion is? The way you're talking about it sounds different than what I mean to be saying, so maybe I miscommunicated.

You are right that I would say this as scum, but I do believe that it's pro-town and it doesn't seem at all unreasonable to expect that people would follow it, which is why I think maybe we're talking about different things?

[Coral]

2) On day 2, I think it also benefits scum a lot if there is an open consensus about the

order

of resolving the locations. It allows them to plan ahead, plant associatives, and be prepared for what's coming. I suggest being flexible.

o h

yeah i thought you were talking about commentary on minigames

;_; okay i sleep i'm useless

yes, please sleep

I was not and certainly would not suggest that nobody talk about other games. Everyone should absolutely do as much of that as possible.

I just meant we shouldn't go into day 2 with a rigid resolve order and never waver from that.

[Coral]

glad you're having a good time!!

I feel less compelled to be full serious mode early now that it seems clear we don't have anyone itching to instalock, that was my main concern. I think catboi may have had the right idea with the banter approach

[Coral]

I'm not sold on the full read silence part of it. some reads are probably necessary to progress the game

With the early flood of posts, I've barely been trying to sort people so far, really. I have a total of two slight leans, I think, maybe three

[Coral]

I think the optimal approach here is to find all the scum day 1, then hard townread all of them, lock into the gate, and hope they make me IC for my wrong reads and then boom I turn on them

[Coral]

completely unrelated to my previous post, I hard townread Isis and Faker

[Coral]

Coral, tell us about your Isis read! please. :>

I'd like to see what she does next first, if you don't mind, but I promise I will later!

[Coral]

a third of the game is in the scum PT so the party probably moved there

[Coral]

Coral feels pretty town.

mmm hard for me to not feel like there might me an angle here after i expressed my thoughts regarding keep:

I probably prefer Keep, if it matters. Purely from a playstyle perspective, I think it's ideal to have patience and cooperation there, since scum NEED a town to vote first and vote wrong. I have more faith in those abilities of mine than in pure read abilities, at least.

like i don’t really think we need patience and cooperation to win the keep we just need one town to believe in the other and it doesn’t need to be two way street or anything

and if in the keep and there is absolutely no way to be the town that is believed in like if the other players in the keep refuse to ever vote for you then you simply ask them to each self vote and then it becomes the gate at least from my perspective

On paper the keep is the easiest for town, but in practice there can be a delicate balance and a lot of back and forth. The on paper strategy is for there to be a consensus that the scummiest player votes first, and then if they refuse to vote, they are outed as scum. But it isn't always that easy.

For example, consider the scenario where town A has a correct townread, but town B townreads scum (C). Town A will want to encourage C to vote first. C can indicate that they want to vote A. If B panics and thinks that vote will lose the minigame, they may pre-empt the vote and vote for C themselves, thinking that is the only way to win the game.

In general it is quite easy if the two town find each other, and can run on a knife's edge if they don't. It can be a very exciting and tense minigame with a lot of potential for mindgames. I think that patience and cooperation are valuable for it.

I'm also aware that it's likely to be a favorite choice for a lot of people, and not everyone who wants to go there will be able to.

[Coral]

town b is town and is being townread by a and therefore should ask a to vote for b and then b self votes and town wins - like why would town b ever trust their read of c over trusting in their own alignment?

The idea is that even if A believes their read is correct, they can use the mechanic as a check against their read by asking C to vote instead. That way, even if their read is wrong they still have a chance at winning the game.

B would prefer for A to just vote them, of course, but that isn't always the best play from A's point of view.

If (whichever town decides to vote first) just votes for who they think is town, it's true that's mechanically a 50% chance at a win. Maybe that's better than playing the "make the scummy player vote" game and introducing these potential difficulties. I'm not sure what's optimal, my opinions are just based on how things have played out in the past

[Coral]

Most of skitter's reads are the opposite of mine, which is interesting

[Coral]

and I like their concerns about scum making early moves to lock into minigame slots

I'm concerned because this seems to be coming from a scum pov
Like it seems like their concerns are stemming from 'having thought abt how they'd play this as scum'

Wrt you: fair, i have tried to block parts of that from my memory. You feel really like weird and distant tho

I thought a lot about how I'd play as scum, in the same way that I thought about how scum would play, and how town should play. I find this setup very interesting and fun to puzzle box.

If I said those things as scum, they would be with the goal of getting towncred. It would be understandable to suspect me for that reason. But I don't understand suspecting me for those thoughts coming from having thought about how I'd play this as scum. If those thoughts had only occurred to me after rolling scum, I would be somewhat unlikely to expect to get towncred from saying them?

[Coral]

Was wondering if it'd be possible given the group of people to have assignments decided in a democratic manner - was thinking that absent traditional gameplay mechanisms you can't really exert meaningful pressure on scum and if instead people were held to a vote on who to send where it'd provide data and some amount of discussion fodder. My approach the time I played this as town was pretty bad and I'd like to do something a little different.

I had a related thought of, after some discussion, voting on who chooses location first? Possibly with popcorning after. I think that method is likely to reduce the agency scum has over their location choices. Did you have a different approach in mind?

[Coral]

I don't think you expect to get towncred for them, i just think the things you're posting are more likely to come from scum then town

what do you think my goal would be of posting them as scum?

[Coral]

Like i guess my thoughts when i'm tend to trend more towards 'this is jow i think town should play the game'

And less 'i think scum is going to play like this so this is how we can counter that'

If that makes sense

Not that you have any reason to believe me in particular, but I think everything I've said mechanically so far are things that I thought of prior to getting my role pm this game.

I don't really believe that you think I would aimlessly post my scum pov without a goal in mind.

[Coral]

I was thinking straight majority assignment, not declaring who gets to choose first. Of course that might make some people unhappy to be sent to a place but someone's got to go.

As in, a separate vote (gate/keep/wall) for each slot?

My thought is that's hard to really comprehend the meaning of what each individual vote means in that case.

[Coral]

The wall is my least desired minigame because I hate hate hate 3p elo.

that's the secret: it's all 3p elo

traditional

3p elo. I really do like the Keep conceptually and feel like in most player lists I'm a good choice to go there.

For what it's worth I agree with this, from a playstyle perspective.

[Coral]

I don't really believe that you think I would aimlessly post my scum pov without a goal in mind.

I'm not saying 'aimlessly post your scum pov'
I'm sayinng you were making a post to share your thoughts abt the game which i think happen to be more likely to come from scum

Those arent quite the same thing

It just feels like a read where you are actively resisting thinking about it on a level past 0, and that's hard for me to understand.

[Coral]

I think it's strategically inaccurate, same as Faker

I'm curious about your strategic disagreements here

[Coral]

What does that even mean in this context

I think it feels to me like if you had thought about it on a deeper level then you wouldn't have found it to be a significant point. That may be my own bias in the situation, but still, it feels like when I attempt to guide you towards why I believe that to be the case, you are uninterested in trying.

It doesn't feel like an engagement meant to sort me, it feels like you've decided your point and don't want to look into it any further. Which, realistically, is your right! It still feels a bit wrong to me, though.

[Coral]

I'm not sure how we're now going to crack the ice to start placing people

This is why I thought finding the consensus towniest person and having them pick first could be useful.

[Coral]

Oh, was my joke really that bad? Perhaps my humour is too subtle and advanced

[Coral]

What does that even mean in this context

I think it feels to me like if you had thought about it on a deeper level then you wouldn't have found it to be a significant point. That may be my own bias in the situation, but still, it feels like when I attempt to guide you towards why I believe that to be the case, you are uninterested in trying.

It doesn't feel like an engagement meant to sort me, it feels like you've decided your point and don't want to look into it any further. Which, realistically, is your right! It still feels a bit wrong to me, though.

mmm, 'guiding her' is an interesting choice of words. aren't you trying to read skitter here, not guide her? is her read on you scummy to you?

Yes, guiding her towards the deeper meaning behind her point. I think I was clearly asking leading questions of her. She doesn't have to follow them if she doesn't want to, obviously.

Both for the goal of seeing if she did have a deeper meaning/analysis behind her point (and I didn't much like the fact that she didn't seem to), and for the goal of hopefully bringing us closer to finding each other as town if she is.

[Coral]

I think the optimal approach here is to find all the scum day 1, then hard townread all of them, lock into the gate, and hope they make me IC for my wrong reads and then boom I turn on them

completely unrelated to my previous post, I hard townread Isis and Faker

I thought I laid it on pretty thick but maybe not

[Coral]

(it meant that they were, at the time, the closest things I had to scumleans)

[Coral]

Coral, tell us about your Isis read! please. :>

I'd like to see what she does next first, if you don't mind, but I promise I will later!

so why make this post?

Because I didn't want to say why I found her early posts scummy until she made more of them.

[Coral]

I found Isis' early posts to be a little... restricted I guess would be the word? It's mostly just a vibe thing and I'm not sure how to point out examples since it feels more like a lack of something than a presence of something. Sorry it's not anything more exciting!

[Coral]

I think the optimal approach here is to find all the scum day 1, then hard townread all of them, lock into the gate, and hope they make me IC for my wrong reads and then boom I turn on them

completely unrelated to my previous post, I hard townread Isis and Faker

I thought I laid it on pretty thick but maybe not

Oh I think the mistaken scumcount made the joke hard to follow, since you'd want to name a full set of fail in the basic version of that joke.

I appreciate the constructive comedy criticism, I think you're right

unfortunately I only had 2 scumleans. maybe I should have waited until I had 3

[Coral]

i misread it as referring to the previous

previous

post about how she only had two or three townleans...

It was 2 scumleans and maybe 1 townlean, for full disclosure! (the maybe townlean was catboi)

[Coral]

I feel like I've somewhat lost the thread of this game overnight

I guess I'm not sure what thoughts are productive or useful for me to share at the moment. Someone ask me something, maybe, if you want to.

[Coral]

I will say I'm starting to regret discouraging people from just picking their choices. Building consensus and going from there in a thread with 3 scum vs 6 town is maybe actually not likely to produce the best results, since town are rather unlikely to have strong placement opinions for others and could get influenced fairly easily

[Coral]

Sharing reads is always productive, yes. Maybe I'm projecting here, but although I have some vague ideas of pairings that seem useful, or playstyles that work better in different locations, if I were to attempt to do a full location sort a lot of it would be "well, here, I guess". It could be I'm alone on that.

[Coral]

For myself at Wall, I don't think it's ideal? I think I usually lose a 1v1, and I'm probably not the best IC either. The main aspect I would enjoy about it would be potentially having a headstart at trying to figure out what the scumteam is trying to do, if I end up in the 1v1.

[Coral]

Coral might be a good fit there, bit more formal but definitely same whimsy, but you seem to take Coral's tone/style as more face value which is definitely a mistake. I don't know how vulnerable Isis is after I hauled her up the mountain vs. Coral in Eurybia

Dear God I am awful at keeping track of these names

[Coral]

That was quoted to say that I would enjoy that grouping! I can't confidently say I can read them accurately, but I feel like I have a level of understanding of them more than others, that may help. Both of them usually make sense to me

[Coral]

Wall I feel pretty neutral about. I'm fine with it. It's the most standard one, there's no real tricks or anything.

[Coral]

That was quoted to say that I would enjoy that grouping! I can't confidently say I can read them accurately, but I feel like I have a level of understanding of them more than others, that may help. Both of them usually make sense to me

The downside of this is that both are people that I would naturally want to trust and I'm somewhat vulnerable to that. A more detached grouping might be a bit more +EV +MV

[Coral]

Skitter not wanting me there is reasonable since I think I'd likely do well in that group as scum. Probably better than as town, honestly. So anyone who scumreads me, I would expect to oppose that

[Coral]

I will say I'm starting to regret discouraging people from just picking their choices. Building consensus and going from there in a thread with 3 scum vs 6 town is maybe actually not likely to produce the best results, since town are rather unlikely to have strong placement opinions for others and could get influenced fairly easily

I really disagree with this, both because I think town has strong incentives to care about where/who they are with, and because I'm town and have strong opinions because of those strong incentives.

My specific location thoughts are a bit all over the place but there are clear good/bad matchups. We can modify these a bit based off of novelty, fun, and scarcity of slots, but we really want to exert pressure in this manner. Pressure scum to acquiesce to bad matchups or justify saying no, and narrow the options available for them to swap by making certain options much more enticing.

I think that's a reasonable perspective to have. I'll try to dig in a little more and think more deeply about the locations when I have some time later today.

It was more an inkling of paranoia of that if we are working towards building a consensus and deciding locations that way, if a scum wants to just argue strongly for what is optimal for them, they likely will be able to just take the reins and do it.

I guess really that's an argument for resolving the minigame of whoever most strongly pushed a consensus we land on first. It does leave a pretty big trail, so maybe the worry was unimportant

[Coral]

I'm surprised at the confidence on skitter town

[Coral]

Since you probably wouldn't mind talking about it anyway, and I find it fun, I'll ask: how do you think that attitude would carry over or impact your scum play here?

[Coral]

from a pure numbers standpoint, is it a good idea to herd universal-ish scumreads into Keep?

kitty/Tempest/absinthe is my early call. Isis could replace one.

eh, throw that out. i'm assuming skitter town out of laziness when i have no read on her.

Chara, was your pick of 3 names here meant to be your own scumreads, or your assessment of what "universal-ish scumreads" were? And what did the post about skitter have to do with it?

i've decided, group is Isis/Chara and whoever else wants to be there. not Keep. this is my only stipulation and it is serious!

I'm also curious if there's a game-related motivation behind this (as in, beyond just personal affinity/meshing well), and how you arrived at this decision. In this case, "I don't want to share yet" is a valid answer, but I would like to cash that in eventually if so

[Coral]

I was misreading it as skitter initially but figured out it's catboi.

[Coral]

the three name picks were my scumreads, but with a null read on skitter they're not anything i want to put a lot of stock into, given two of them were her own scumreads and my own tendency to be more confident in my reads when someone else who is 'good at mafia' shares them. (meaning, i made the list and then went hm, this is probably influenced more than i'd like by skitter)

and i have a game-related reason for me/Isis being a group i'd really like.

Hmm okay, that makes more sense, thanks!

And we'll follow up on that next game day, then.

[Coral]

With Wall being fairly set, things were already probably heading in this direction whether I liked it or not, but with how things are currently I'm feeling better than I was earlier (happy, even, perhaps) about the prospect of going to the Gate.

[Coral]

I like absinthe in Keep with catboi and Faker.

[Coral]

Me? While I agree wholeheartedly, I don't think there's room to play with Chara. Isis and Chara mutually want to be together and are heading towards Wall with demona. I'm pretty happy with the groupings as they're shaking out at the moment.

[Coral]

I like absinthe in Keep with catboi and Faker.

Why is that, exactly?

I like Faker's plan for it, mostly. I'm currently leaning towards feeling trusting of Faker (rookie mistake), and at the same time not feeling town on absinthe. So that + Faker wanting to pair up + absinthe feeling a little resistant towards accepting that arrangement = me wanting to voice support of it.

[Coral]

I like absinthe in Keep with catboi and Faker.

Why is that, exactly?

I like Faker's plan for it, mostly. I'm currently leaning towards feeling trusting of Faker (rookie mistake), and at the same time not feeling town on absinthe. So that + Faker wanting to pair up + absinthe feeling a little resistant towards accepting that arrangement = me wanting to voice support of it.

Also, the other side to this is that I think absinthe would do well there if town, so either way it seems like a good grouping.

[Coral]

Okay that makes Gate Coral, skitter, absinthe/Tempest which ~isn't ideal~ and I'm wondering if putting Isis/Chara in Gate is better

What's unideal about it, from your perspective?

[Coral]

Ah, you wanted skitter and demona together

[Coral]

It's true, amazing. How did I not see the "mafurscum" before? I was too blinded by the colors when I tried it out last time

[Coral]

Did you eat the egg?

[Coral]

I guess probably not.

[Coral]

I realize that you might not have known demona went to the wall, but I’m curious about your thoughts there. I’m on record as having a town read on demona. It’s the only read I’ve unequivocally stated. I’ve mentioned a suspicion of you. Now I know my reads can change quite a lot, especially overnight, but your thought there that you’d be the decider doesn’t line up with the thoughts I’ve given.

I'm not sure exactly why absinthe didn't clarify this, and focused more on the reads portion, but the way I interpreted the original post was that she was saying that she would be the decider due to being the consensus scumread among the Keep players (scummiest person decides is the standard Keep play). Which I think does line up with what you're saying here.

It feels meaningful, somehow, that absinthe focused on analyzing your reads portion of this rather than clearing up what looks to me like a misunderstanding. But maybe I'm the one misunderstanding something here?

[Coral]

My location opinions haven't changed, I still like:

Keep: Faker/catboi/absinthe
Wall: demona/Isis/Chara
Gate: skitter/Tempest/Coral

I'm also interested to hear skitter's location thoughts here, which won't be for a few hours yet I suppose.

[Coral]

I have a few thoughts that I think would be better shared once we're on day 2. I am somewhat itching to share them but I think it would be harmful to do so now.

That alone is making me want to get to day 2, but I'll try not to be too impatient

I think besides that aspect, taking our time here isn't a bad thing.

[Coral]

cat can you make sounds like these real fast maybe we can get her to look at her computer on a Saturday

I think that's still not allowed for a bit longer

[Coral]

I realize that you might not have known demona went to the wall, but I’m curious about your thoughts there. I’m on record as having a town read on demona. It’s the only read I’ve unequivocally stated. I’ve mentioned a suspicion of you. Now I know my reads can change quite a lot, especially overnight, but your thought there that you’d be the decider doesn’t line up with the thoughts I’ve given.

I'm not sure exactly why absinthe didn't clarify this, and focused more on the reads portion, but the way I interpreted the original post was that she was saying that she would be the decider due to being the consensus scumread among the Keep players (scummiest person decides is the standard Keep play). Which I think does line up with what you're saying here.

It feels meaningful, somehow, that absinthe focused on analyzing your reads portion of this rather than clearing up what looks to me like a misunderstanding. But maybe I'm the one misunderstanding something here?

I'm pretty sure I already expressed this thought well before Tempest's post, so that doesn't appear to be what needs clarification.

How do you interpret her saying:

1) she townreads demona
2) she mentioned a suspicion of you
2) therefore, you being the decider doesn't line up with the thoughts she's given

That seems to directly imply that, regardless of her reads and whether she stated them earlier or not, she thinks that her suspicion of you is incompatible with you being the decider, no?

[Coral]

Historical detective work and philosophical reflection sounds like fun

[Coral]

I feel like all of that kind of misses the point of what I was saying, but I'm not really sure it's an important point anyway, and I appreciate the thought process shared regardless.

[Coral]

Coral is still a project because I'm out hunting for books to read over break.

I recently read

The Violent Bear it Away

. Quite something, I thought.

[Coral]

that is a very fair question. the feeling of being able to read demona is not something i could defend to myself, i think, given it is not based on any fact i can point to, but sometimes my intuition knows more than my conscious mind does and i occasionally find i should listen to it.

I can relate to this feeling. Perhaps the self-assertiveness of the "you all will be able to townread me" worked some sort of hypnotic magic and I started to believe it. I do believe it, in spite of that, though

[Coral]

I personally find that philosophy makes a stronger impact on me when ferried into my brain behind a thinly veiled guise of character and story

Maybe someday I'll be strong enough to drink straight from the source without coughing too much, and then forgetting most of it.

[Coral]

It is somewhat hard to have normal mafia gameplay even in the event that we were discussing reads more freely than we are, due to the lack of votes or wagons or pressure.

The nice thing about tomorrow is that it really isn't much like a standard 3p elo at all, since we can all talk and discuss and cross-check with each other. I don't think we're depriving ourselves of too much here. If anything, I believe we've probably had more productive discussion than a lot of previous runs.

[Coral]

I think it will be very entertaining when day 2 opens and everyone jumps in with their theories about what the scumteam have been up to that they've been waiting to share and in all likelihood everyone will have a different one

Will that be better than if we all just shared them now? Not sure! But it will be fun

[Coral]

A lot of the posts I was trying to read were a bit too hard to follow like if the a goes to b goes to c but b is c and b should go wall etc
We need more mafia gaemplay

but the b to c is potentially sortable mafia gameplay

like if you/chara are both town and you follow through with coming to the wall, then mafia would have to switch one of us

so mafia might want to disrupt this

which only faker has really suggested anything different i believe but there were other plausible reasons for this and it wasn’t a hard push or anything

or the mafia might play around knowing they’d have to switch

and if one of you/chara are mafia then i think mafia would be comfortable with you locking in (though the non-you/chara mafias might not say so of course) and then weighing each of your approaches to doing so et cetera becomes relevant if none of us are switched

also applies to potential faker/catboi/absinthe keep

(and i kinda think everyone as mafia is more in practice of believably giving/discussing reads)

i guess i am mostly saying i do not mind more discussion of others’ alignments but i do not think one should come at the cost of the other

I like this post and the thought process that comes behind it, and I agree. I believe that a lot of potential motivation can be read into the dance of who is going to what location. I've been pushing for Isis/Chara to go to Wall more for this sort of information angle than necessarily exactly for who is best at sorting whom.

[Coral]

I'm either wildly wrong this game and skitter is just taking advantage of it or a thousand little angels decided to all hold hands and give us the same reads to steamroll with

Isn't there a third option here?

Technically a fourth, being that you're both town and wrong, but I didn't mean that one.

[Coral]

If it makes you feel better, skitter, if I'm scum I won't IC you

[Coral]

I'd certainly prefer Carol of the Bells!

[Coral]

You're misinterpreting 677. I think she's saying what if I was positioning for Keep publicly but secretly hoping that demona would lock it, giving me the free way out, and her actually locking Wall made it fall through.

(I think, maybe your interpretation is correct)

This was my interpretation as well.

[Coral]

Actually wait: @coral why is me/you/tempest at gate a good idea from your pov?

To be more precise, my wants are these:

1) catboi/Faker/absinthe at Keep
2) Isis and Chara together
3) Me not with Isis and Chara at the Gate

There's a limited number of valid combinations that satisfy these, and that one happens to be my favorite, but I'm not married to it. You, me, and demona at Wall could be fine, but I think the swap from that could result in some situations that I would not prefer.

[Coral]

I'm not actually saying he is scum but yes this is 100% in his wheelhouse and that was a big part of why I typed 'Seriously?' to him yesterday when he first pulled that out, especially because he initially made a show of hiding reads at first

I beliebe you when you say this

But like what does scum-him get out of this

At a table like this I think a lot of people are going to have their radars tuned for someone who wants to take over the game and go high effort and get townread through force of will. Playing counter to those expectations flies under that radar, which is a possible approach.

[Coral]

Essentially, the bar for being seen as town is high here. The natural inclination for scum is to stretch and clear that bar. Some may choose instead to simply duck under it.

[Coral]

And that works well with this setup, where being seen as town is perhaps of more importance than most games, compared to usual other scum goals.

[Coral]

Actually wait: @coral why is me/you/tempest at gate a good idea from your pov?

To be more precise, my wants are these:

1) catboi/Faker/absinthe at Keep
2) Isis and Chara together
3) Me not with Isis and Chara at the Gate

There's a limited number of valid combinations that satisfy these, and that one happens to be my favorite, but I'm not married to it. You, me, and demona at Wall could be fine, but I think the swap from that could result in some situations that I would not prefer.

1. Why do you want absinth with faker/catboi at keep
2. Me with you and tempest at gate is one of the worst possible pairings i can think of

1. 603 and 606. My reads have changed slightly since then but my feelings are the same.

2. Why do you think that? It doesn't seem bad from my perspective.

[Coral]

Keep in mind also that only one grouping remains intact. 2 are guaranteed to be altered.

[Coral]

IIRC Coral you've seen a game where I intentionally held off on engaging with someone very similar to you as scum, though that was more to implicate them when I flipped.

Why are you so trusting of my slot given this?

Your approach to me hasn't factored in to my read on you. I'm not judging you on that axis at all. I guess that could be an oversight? But I'm not especially concerned about being confident on getting you correct at this exact moment.

[Coral]

I dont understand how this is strong enuf reasoning to base the rest of the game around

I suppose another side of it would be that I don't have any conflicting opinions that are strong enough to want to try to overrule what seems to be the preference of someone forming a group that doesn't involve me.

[Coral]

I dont understand how this is strong enuf reasoning to base the rest of the game around

I suppose another side of it would be that I don't have any conflicting opinions that are strong enough to want to try to overrule what seems to be the preference of someone forming a group that doesn't involve me.

The context is that this is a 'want' that led you to forming a me/you/tempest pairing

So like ig i'm kinda confused why the catboi/faker/ffery pairing made by someone elese is strong enuf to base the rest of the game on (including where you yourself go)

Like this explanation doesnt fully square with me with describing that pairing as a condition for how you arrived at your own pairing ...

I have reasons that I like the pairings that are probably selfish, possibly entirely off base, and that I will share tomorrow regardless.

There's a couple of possible worldviews bouncing around in my head right now, and I have ideas on what the swaps could be in those worlds. I think that certain combinations would result in swaps that would be more informative or less informative as to whether my worldviews are accurate or not. While that isn't and shouldn't be a dominating reason for pushing a certain grouping (too hard to realistically believe that it's predictable), it does factor in a little bit for me.

[Coral]

Demona does look pretty town it's also the townread in the game I feel I can pull out of the 1000 jigsaw and put down as a corner piece.

I'm finally fully caught up.

I kinda don't like skitter at wall because I dont understand or buy her demona-kinship preference at all. I understand game pref though

I'm falling aslepo

I feel very similar here. I have somewhat been using demona town as a corner piece to worldbuild off of. I haven't delved super deep on it and probably will do so day 2 if needed, but demona does seem quite town to me, and does seem like the slot or one of the slots here where I can feel the most comfortable about a townread.

With that in mind, I think skitter's stated ability to read demona seems like it doesn't exactly live up to the value that she is placing on it. I don't really mind her going with demona, but I don't think it's that significant in terms of EV.

I suppose the possible alternative I'm missing is that skitter thinks she can find scum!demona when the rest of us won't, but that isn't really the impression I was getting.

[Coral]

Wall: domna, Chara, Isis
Gate: Tempest, skitter, Coral
Keep: Faker, catboi, absinthe

is my preference in a vacuum. Arguably Tempest/absinthe should swap but I do like the idea of clear-Tammy. I think that's a very favorable Gate regardless of who the scum player/clear would be.

Agreed. I think we're likely walking into a 1-1-1 but I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. All of these groups feel solvable to me, and I don't think there's a swap that would change that too dramatically.

[Coral]

I'm pretty curious about people taking demona-town at face value. Demona isn't deadweight and the pattern/style of questions is pretty typical.

The most town thing to me is just the "me-town" centric perspective that is akin to Slaughter Hour, but I view that with a very heavy dose of skepticism.

I don't think the pattern/style of questions is really what does it for me, certainly not just tone. I agree that the perspective behind the posts that comes from an unabashedly town mindset is the towniest thing. Not as much the most obvious instances, more the ones where it leaks through in a way that doesn't feel faked or planned to me.

930 was an example for me, as well as 981. Even 810 and 812 has touches of it for me. The approaches to other slots don't feel like looking to punish mistakes or doing busy work. The insights feel to me like they require a deeper level of not only thinking about the game as town, but thinking about how others should be thinking about the game as town and if that matches up with what's shown in their posts. It just feels like genuine sorting, I guess.

Is your skepticism coming from feeling like these types of posts are within range, or just a standard level of feeling that this sort of thing is not hard to fake?

[Coral]

and the locations and signatures are all references to this song:



which is very dear to me / thus will take the opportunity to share

I liked this, thanks for sharing. I'm also rather fond of your poetry choices on other accounts

[Coral]

981 seems very inrange for anyone because it's meta pattern recognition.

For 981 it's more just that I believe that was something that demona had already thought about but hadn't felt a need to share. It's not exclusively town, true, but it helps.

[Coral]

To me most of coral's posts just feel kinda scummy. If she's town idk how to get over that

Tone or mindset?

[Coral]

I've gotten that reaction before

I do tend to think of things from less of a pure town mindset because I find scum fun to play and fun to think about. I don't think I could ever really genuinely pull off what I see in demona, for example, and that's maybe part of why I feel strongly about it being town.

[Coral]

I think its definitely a different perspective. I've been thinking about things a lot in terms of potential swaps. It seems that some people are thinking more about what the groups end up at the end of the day. It could be indicative of alignment in some cases, but I think it's possible to just be different town ways of looking at things.

[Coral]

I decided to skim and realized I'm really bored with this game

Sounds like it's time to lock in, then!

[Coral]

Isis locktown!

[Coral]

Isis locktown!

Are you ou town

Yes

Are you?

[Coral]

I think mafia can certainly be beautiful, but it's okay to treat it like a delicacy. It can be easy to end up with too much of it.

[Coral]

Sounds wonderful! I've never played.

[Coral]

That's fair, I understand!

[Coral]

I'm not offended or anything, don't worry

Hope you're drinking water!

[Coral]

VOTE: Gate

[Coral]

This feels like a "gamestate" read which to me sounds like complete horse hockey barring something more specific.

I am really hoping that there are 2 scum in the Keep and they can't swap me out. Maybe they're happy with the current arrangement, but I feel like I got what I wanted. If scum feel they're better for it then okay, let's see it.

I think it's either 1-1-1 or this.

[Coral]

NOT a gamestate read!!!

[Coral]

Pedit i don't think ffery chooses keep if she's scum with catboi @ prism how do you think that makes sense

I also think it's unlikely, but she was rather pressured into it

[Coral]

Did demona resolve whatever demona wanted us to wait for?

[Coral]

Oh hey, we did it! Good luck with the swap and the confirmation, everyone!!

[Coral]

I SHOULD HAVE SET AN ALARMMMM

[Coral]

Hi everyone. I had a bunch of thoughts written out that I'm not sure if they're useful to post at this point. With the swap I'm at like 90% thinking it's absinthe/catboi/Chara

[Coral]

Okay, here it was. Nothing too groundbreaking honestly, I just had a bunch of read thoughts that I had previously been keeping to myself:

So... I strongly scumread Chara. I haven't wanted to reveal this at all because part of what tipped me towards the read was feeling like Chara was trying consistently to pocket people, and I wanted it to think that it had succeeded with me (and possibly tempt the scumteam to then swap me into Wall for demona, so they can IC demona, hoping I vote Isis).

Maybe a bit silly and self-centered, but I felt it fairly strongly, and it seemed like a reasonable idea. Locking in Gate with Isis and Chara seemed like it would go poorly to me, since if I was right I probably end up staying there with a cleared Isis, and I'm not at all confident I win that. My Chara read also then becomes pretty useless. demona had already locked in Wall, so the next best option seemed to me to go to Gate and encourage Isis and Chara to go Wall.

At the time that I came upon this idea, I also scumread skitter and absinthe. I'm a bit less sure on both of those reads now, though. I have gradually scumread catboi more (which seems like a common opinion), and while I still think skitter is more likely scum than Tempest, I'm hesitant to make that call (and might not need to, so I don't plan to think about it too deeply yet).

I do tentatively think Faker is town at this time, and probably would hope that whoever is town of catboi and absinthe will vote there. I lean town on Isis, partly due to the strength of my Chara scumread and believing that they're unlikely to be scum together.

demona, honestly, I've just been hoping gets IC'd. I do lean town but I'm not as confident in it as I'd like to be. I did really like demona's suggestion at the end of day to break up where the final two were going, and I think it is fairly likely that scum would not have wanted that. I don't think it's that scummy for Chara to have locked in Wall in response, though, since I imagine it would have done so as town, too.

Tempest I thought felt off in her early posts, same as several others, but she's gotten better. Part of me does worry that this may mean the early post tone is less of a consistent character trait, and could be indicative of scum struggling to find their footing and their voice. There's several worlds where I won't actually have to sort here, so I'm not focusing on it too much yet.

Also, now that it's night and I'm actually thinking through the possible swaps and how scum might choose to approach them, I'm realizing it's a pretty low chance that they do swap demona over and IC. Revealing one of the swaps as town right away gives away some information to town about the configuration of scum. So maybe my dream plan (side note: I thought it was pretty funny that Isis mentioned thr exact same hopeful plan near the end of the day) was never going to happen.

[Coral]

I was working a bit under the assumption that scum were 1-1-1 due to the general contentness of everyone. But with absinthe being scum and part of the swap, that locks in either it being 0-1-2, or skitter being scum. My gut reaction is to flip our game first, and that means that whoever is town in skitter/catboi should just vote Faker.

Am I getting anything wrong there?

[Coral]

Hi everyone. I had a bunch of thoughts written out that I'm not sure if they're useful to post at this point. With the swap I'm at like 90% thinking it's absinthe/catboi/Chara

what's your confidence raiting on absinthe?

Prior to the swap, like 60% maybe? In a vacuum I thought she was scummy but I thought we were at 1-1-1 and I was starting to suspect catboi more.

Now, 100%, obviously

[Coral]

I was working a bit under the assumption that scum were 1-1-1 due to the general contentness of everyone. But with absinthe being scum and part of the swap, that locks in either it being 0-1-2, or skitter being scum. My gut reaction is to flip our game first, and that means that whoever is town in skitter/catboi should just vote Faker.

Am I getting anything wrong there?

Oh. Yes I am. This is assuming that Faker isn't scum LMAO

[Coral]

Sorry I literally just woke up

[Coral]

I can case Chara in a bit, sure

[Coral]

and can you point to where you were trying to make me think i'd pocketed you? i don't think we interacted much past that one conversation i remember regarding Isis.

It was more that I was trying not to break that impression by stating a scumread. I'm also fairly bad at faking that sort of thing as town, for some reason, so I mostly just tried to avoid the topic.

The only real active choices I made were
1) not being clear about my read
2) not continuing to pressure the point in 588

Speaking of, was the game-related reason your scumread there?

[Coral]

I read (and it gradually turned to skimming) the posts since daystart before I got too antsy and started posting, and they really only make me more confident in the solve. I think it's still worth considering other possibilities, but it's hard for me to see at this point.

[Coral]

and can you point to where you were trying to make me think i'd pocketed you? i don't think we interacted much past that one conversation i remember regarding Isis.

It was more that I was trying not to break that impression by stating a scumread. I'm also fairly bad at faking that sort of thing as town, for some reason, so I mostly just tried to avoid the topic.

The only real active choices I made were
1) not being clear about my read
2) not continuing to pressure the point in 588

Speaking of, was the game-related reason your scumread there?

my question also meant to include what behavior from me you were interpreting as pocketing? i just find it hard to believe you thought i would think i'd pocketed you somehow.

Yes, I'm not ignoring that!

catboi had already asked the same question and since it requires referencing some posts, I'll get to it in a bit.

[Coral]

I read (and it gradually turned to skimming) the posts since daystart before I got too antsy and started posting, and they really only make me more confident in the solve. I think it's still worth considering other possibilities, but it's hard for me to see at this point.

Sorry, I actually meant what skitter thought of me/cat's back and forth.

Oh that was not meant in response to you, I was just sharing

[Coral]

Gate

catboi
skitter30
Isis

Wall

Faker
Chara
demona

Keep

absinthe
Tempest
Coral

This is unrelated to the points I'm currently working on making, but I saw it while reading and thought it was interesting how close this got to the final groupings.

[Coral]

To be clear, I don't mean this to be an alignment indicative point. One could make the case, but I think it'd be pretty shaky. I meant it in more of a "huh, that's neat" way

[Coral]

My only current thought on solve order is being tempted to want to do the Gate first. We lose fewer town voices due to Tempest staying, and at this current time I think my voice will mostly be used to run around in circles chanting about how scum are Chara/catboi and why. Which I don't really need to be here for, you all can just promise to periodically pretend that I've entered the thread and said something to that effect.

That could obviously change, I might change my mind at some point on who I think is scum and actually be doing a useful amount of active sorting. But it's where I imagine this heading based on current trajectory.

The other benefit is that it confirms one of the swappers as scum. While it doesn't solve the Keep immediately, I think it is useful information for helping to support a solve there, and to give people a narrower field of possibilities for what the scumteam was trying to accomplish with the swap. Leaning heavily myself towards it being a S/T swap due to a 0-1-2, obviously.

[Coral]

I'm not voting until at least Day 5 but I'm increasingly convinced that cat just swung and completely struck out, rather than this being any kind of galaxy brain townplay.

I agree, if it's worth anything. Even ignoring my prior reads as best as I can.

[Coral]

Why? I think my perspective is unique. I'd like to hear how to get the same answer a different way, if that's the case.

I just don't buy the approach as real. It feels like he's going through the motions but his heart isn't in it. I don't believe 1365, that's a post made to look like he has town thought, not a real one.

I think the scum team (if I'm correct) is closer to losing than winning here, and I think the response to Chara in 1376 felt like reorienting himself slightly in order to angle better towards supporting a teammate rather than a natural response -- I don't think he feels it important to make that response live as town while there's a lot of posts flying around that are interesting and thoughts to share. Why pick that one out just to waffle about it?

1384 is admittedly coloured by knowing absinthe is scum, but this is just pushing the party line of what the scum team hoped the town reaction to that spiel would be.

The biggest issue for me though is that he seems largely unsure if he wants to full commit to calling you scum or not. He dances around it for a bit, then commits, but even then I just don't buy it? He'll probably argue that he was town baiting a reaction in order to sort, but I don't believe that. He says he's "likely going to vote soon" in 1428 and there is absolutely no chance that is genuine. 1460 just... really doesn't hit the mark.

[Coral]

Sorry, 1379 about Chara, not 1376

[Coral]

Like, look at the timestamps around that. Posts are flying through faster than anyone could respond to everything. What makes him pick that post out to respond to, just to say nearly nothing?

[Coral]

I could by biased by my Chara scumread there, it's true, but knowing that absinthe is scum and wasn't in thread (even if you think it's me, I wasn't in thread) I think that he would look to support a partner coming into to the day in that situation. As town I don't see what compels him to make that post, even if it's a thought that he would genuinely have.

[Coral]

1367 is less affecting to me because I think he probably wouldn't go that route today if he didn't believe that he did correctly plant the seeds for it. He just didn't plant them very well, but I don't really think he would try to bluff a progression that he knew he didn't have, especially against you. I understand the issues you have with it, though.

A note also that if he does end up voting early, it would likely be to try to end the game early and take down the voices of skitter and Faker with him. I don't think it's necessary to quickhammer yourself in that event, skitter. He would only do that with the goal of getting two town who are good at solving out of the game, and there's no rush, since we can simply move forward with that game effectively prefilled.

[Coral]

lol yes don't try to make a case or anything, heaven forbid you have to cite sources

I'm obviously going to make a case, what's the point of this? I meant that after I do, the case will have been made, and my townflip is probably not

that

much less of support for the case than me continuing to post about it. At least compared to other minigames flipping, where we lose 2 town voices, who may also be more undecided.

I'd still rather be alive than dead, but my point is that the loss of me is probably not such a big hit to town win%, and the loss of the towns in the other minigames are almost certainly greater.

[Coral]

1367 is less affecting to me because I think he probably wouldn't go that route today if he didn't believe that he did correctly plant the seeds for it. He just didn't plant them very well, but I don't really think he would try to bluff a progression that he knew he didn't have, especially against you. I understand the issues you have with it, though.

A note also that if he does end up voting early, it would likely be to try to end the game early and take down the voices of skitter and Faker with him. I don't think it's necessary to quickhammer yourself in that event, skitter. He would only do that with the goal of getting two town who are good at solving out of the game, and there's no rush, since we can simply move forward with that game effectively prefilled.

lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol

okay so like, for the record

me throwing down a vote as scum would be outright throwing or possibly gambiting that the other town in keep would panic (very unlikely!)

but coral is arguing that me doing so would make it unnecessary to actually resolve the keep and get my flip and that it's sooo much more valuable to treat the other voices here as confirmed town

and from where I'm standing anyway, this doesn't really make sense for town at all - knowing the alignments of the keep players should be incredibly important to solving the rest of the game

but instead coral wants to be resolved first


and that, to me, only really makes sense if coral is someone who knows the flips in the keeo are going to make the game significantly harder for her to win. it makes basically no sense for town to say this.

I don't think anyone should be voting any time soon. I don't think it would in any way be pro-town to do so. I don't think you would vote soon as town, even though you said you would.

It's worth considering the possibility that you would choose to vote as scum, and what the reaction should be, to avoid any panic votes. I don't want the Keep to flip yet (as in, like, today or tomorrow, not as in I am opposed to it flipping first) won or otherwise, and I don't think any town should want that.

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't resolve the keep if you vote. I'm arguing basically that we should ignore your vote, treat it as a gambit, and continue to solve the game as we otherwise would, and flip it when we're ready to do so and after skitter and faker have had a chance to solve the other games. If you throw the keep in a gambit attempt, then yes, we should confirm that is actually what you're doing before flipping any other games. But we don't need to rush into it.

My arguing that the Gate should be resolved first is entirely disconnected from my side note about an edge case that I want to be prepared for. They weren't related points and they exist in different worlds.

You saying that I said "unnecessary to actually resolve the keep and get my flip and that it's sooo much more valuable to treat the other voices here as confirmed town" is like, entirely fabricated. I never said that or anything close to it. I said that it shouldn't be quickhammered, and there's no rush, we can take our time.

I was going to be a little mean but I will take it on good faith that you simply misunderstood the point I was making or read into things that weren't there, even if you're scum, because I don't think you would intentionally make such an embarrassingly bad point.

[Coral]

I don't think anyone should be voting any time soon. I don't think it would in any way be pro-town to do so. I don't think you would vote soon as town, even though you said you would.

hahahahaha

What

do

you believe my approach is here as town? I favor a faster resolution because I have all the agency to decide this minigame in my own hands, getting the flips and knowing alignments is valuable, and being indcisive and taking too long is incredibly anti-town. I don't need a week to decide between two players.

Not be entirely unreasonable, I suppose? This all just feels like bluster to me. I'm not sure why you wouldn't want to take your time here.

[Coral]

Wanting to vote first is bordering on reasonable, although still suboptimal and a strange approach. Voting in the next 24 hours or so when you have a lot of threads in the other minigames that you are ostensibly still looking to resolve would be unreasonable.

If you are that convinced skitter is town, a more reasonable approach would be trying to work with her to solve rather than just throwing away the time you have for a chance at proving yourself right. I just cannot reconcile that approach with you being town. It doesn't fit.

[Coral]

I'm not voting right away, I want people to check in first, but I am likely to vote soon.

If you think I'm scum, go ahead, pre-flip me, start partner hunting, it's all going to be meaningless very very soon.

My point is that these are bluster. I'm not panicked and I'm not sure what gives you that impression. I just think you're scum who is flailing a bit, and your play doesn't make sense from town.

[Coral]

Would you like to explain the differences between those quotes and the sentiment you're expressing now, instead of just lolcatting? Why did you react so strongly to me saying that you wanted to vote soon if that was in fact exactly what you said earlier?

[Coral]

I'm not voting right away, I want people to check in first, but I am likely to vote soon.

If you think I'm scum, go ahead, pre-flip me, start partner hunting, it's all going to be meaningless very very soon.

My point is that these are bluster. I'm not panicked and I'm not sure what gives you that impression. I just think you're scum who is flailing a bit, and your play doesn't make sense from town.

lol okay, egg will be on your face

I was thinking while out for a walk about what your goals would be as scum here. I think most likely you would be trying to undermine confidence and play into my fears of Getting Things Wrong. Which is an understandable goal, the approach is just ineffective. I'm much more vulnerable to people being nice to me

But anyway. The point I wanted to make here is that this is a pretty clear perspective slip. Your stated perspective is that I'm scum, and you have performed as such that you feel that fairly strongly. However, your scum goal here is to make me feel like I am wrongtown. Those clash, and result in the post that I've quoted, where you say something that only makes sense if you know I'm town. There wouldn't be egg on my face if I were scum here. I wouldn't be embarrassed to have gotten you wrong, because I would know your alignment already.

Even if I take the most generous interpretation, that you meant that I would look foolish to others for having gotten you wrong, there's no reason for you to tell me that directly. That shouldn't be the focus for you. It would be something like, "my flip will prove me right about you".

[Coral]

I think this has been enough distraction. I don't want to focus on the Keep anymore for a bit, I'm less sure than I'd like to be on the Wall (despite coming into the day most confident there) and I want to try to shore that up.

[Coral]

Okay, my current to-do list, that I personally at least would like to get through before we flip anywhere, although I of course can't control what anyone else may choose to do :

1) Ignore the baits from catboi that are really hard not to respond to
2) Write up what made me feel the way I do about Chara.
3) Reread things with the knowledge of scum!absinthe in mind and see if that opens up any new angles of perspective, maybe some thoughts on what the scum team may have been trying to do at different points.
4) Stare really hard at Isis and demona to sort out what exactly is going on over there because I've kind of been glazing over it a bit while distracted by the Keep.

Does anyone care about me casing absinthe as an individual? I can, it isn't my immediate inclination since it's hard to see it being that useful, but I guess that's up to Tempest mostly.

[Coral]

I guess in particular the "ah HA I was secretly scumreading Isis all along" feels real because, like, I expect scum to play offense harder than that where they need to present a case to sell people on the read but doing so in that manner is less likely to be persuasive.

I'm curious what the distinction is here for you between Chara having a secret Isis scumread and me having a secret Chara scumread? Is it just that they're in the same minigame? Or were the reads expressed differently? I don't really remember what I expressed exactly, but I remember thinking that Chara's felt like what I had in my head at least, which made me hesitate a bit.

(genuine question, trying to sort. less confident than I was earlier after a step back.)

[Coral]

Oh. You asked about it

[Coral]

Chara was trying consistently to pocket people

cite me some examples?

I think arguing people have been pockety is a difficultaccusation to prove because there are lots of behaviors in a typical game that can be made to feel that way, although it's not impossible to show.

This post seems hard to come by without also absorbing that I scumread Chara. I guess a lot of posts were flying by at the time and it could be hard to keep track, but it does make me feel like you weren't really trying to sort me with the question (or really reading my posts since then that have referenced the read).

[Coral]

For what it's worth, I don't expect anyone to townread me for my wall of thoughts. I would definitely do similar as scum. I mostly wanted to just start the day with that because they were a lot of things that I had been itching to say and hadn't been able to yet, and getting them all off my chest would give context for the more important things that were to come.

Probably as scum I would be more focused on casing and having clean progressions (gradually coming to the realization of reads rather than just dumping them all immediately), but I don't expect that to convince anyone.

[Coral]

Short answer is that I think I pocketed myself moreso than you taking direct action, but there were a few points that stood out. I did halfway type up a post about them and then got a combination of unsure/distracted/lazy/bored. I will get to that tonight, though.

[Coral]

[Coral]

Short answer is that I think I pocketed myself moreso than you taking direct action, but there were a few points that stood out. I did halfway type up a post about them and then got a combination of unsure/distracted/lazy/bored. I will get to that tonight, though.

you pocketed yourself on my behalf and came out with a scumread on me? that's new. i suppose you should get better at pocketing then.

aahhhhh see this is funny and then I want to townread you for it and then i want to scumread you for making me townread you even though it's entirely my own fault

[Coral]

That isn't really what my impression was but I expect you know it better so maybe I'm wrong

[Coral]

rereading chara's iso i'm getting a lot of happy townvibes
idk how much weight to put into that but yeah

Chara's d1 is pretty happyvibes yes
And its scumgame is more joyless, it's almost a watermark

Yes but if it's town
I'm left with scum-you

Are you confident in demona town, then?

[Coral]

MathBlade, please try not to jump to conclusions about the game prior to actually understanding the setup. You're probably best off just rereading the game from the start and going for pure gameplay reads, and focusing on your own minigame.

We can help answer any confusions about the setup that you may have. To answer the question of if you have premises off, the answer is yes, generally.

I think everyone in this game passes a certain bar of skill at both alignments to where I would recommend against making reads based on your perceptions of their strengths as an alignment in a vacuum. More nuanced takes of how players might perceive their own ability in certain matchups could be useful, though.

I disagree with skitter and absinthe being for sure S/S. I think S/T is more likely. An S/S swap would likely be for the goal of hoping catboi and Faker turn on each other and vote the third, knowing they're more likely to do that with skitter than with absinthe. That's a possibility worth considering, but on play I think it's less likely.

Your statements that "demona Isis and Chara contains a town" and "me, absinthe, catboi contains a town" are not meaningful, because we already know that given the current groupings. demona, Isis, and Chara contain two town, because they are one group. You and catboi contains at least one town, because you are in the same group.

[Coral]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

[Coral]

I do plan on reading the thread but I wanted to see if anyone found my optimal strategy pre posts flawed, which it seems like you do. It becomes a matter of if that flaw is genuine or you don’t like the Coral + Catboi team I noted it implied as a possible team earlier.

The "optimal strategy" is unclear, but if I'm understanding it correctly, it's based on faulty premises and disregards alternative options for no reason.

What I find really odd is both you and Skitter disagree and one of you is scum. And only one. But you disagree in different ways. Which means something is close for one of you.

There's no mechanical reason that one of me and skitter should be scum.

[Coral]

Sigh

I was already leaning this way but I am a little tempted to just locktown skitter for this, as poor form as that is to do for a one-word post

It was my exact reaction, and I don't think she gets much out of responding this way as scum considering she probably needs Math on her side. It makes it feel honest, and I think as scum her honest reaction would be more concerned or appeasing.

Never ever read Skitter honest as town.

Skitter has one of the best scum games on MS. And I’ve seen some doozies.

Skitter (and myself) are both top tier scum who do honest lying really really well.

I have no doubt that’s skitter’s emotion it’s a matter of why to sort her

I'm sure you have only the best intentions, but I'm familiar with skitter, and I've already taken the strength of her scumgame into account when making that read. The advice is noted but does not affect my opinion!

[Coral]

Sort of like if you’re told a doctor and cop are in a setup.

Barring limitations if the doctor knows who the cop is, the doc will heal the cop if town.

Then it becomes well the cop died.

Then you’re looking for exceptions (roleblock, macho, 1 shot) etc.

So in this case what is the optimal placement, then if deviations happen why?

Right. Well. I think reading the game to see how the decisions for groupings played out will help you get a better sense of what the possibilities for what scum believed to be optimal placements were.

[Coral]

My main point here is that you have not read the game and do not have a sense of the landscape of the game and people's reads and relationships to each other, so you are assuming that the swap was made purely based on the only information you have, which is the player's names.

I fairly strongly believe that what has actually happened in this game most likely had more of an effect on the choice of swap than your judgements of the relative strengths of players as town or as scum.

[Coral]

Mech is different from player strength. Your point was that absinthe and skitter are the same alignment because of something to do with player strength. I don't really follow your reasoning, so I can't exactly argue against it, but this...

Assume top is all town. Then scum would choose from a two game to add into the top game.
Given Isis and Chara and absinthe and Catboi are all good scum, taking any one of those into a top versus skitter seems a better strategy. So then likely top is not all town.

...is nonsensical. You jump to the conclusion that the Gate was not all town originally because... scum should have swapped a good scum player to play against skitter, instead of swapping skitter out? That's a leap in logic that is entirely unsupported.

[Coral]

Given you have experience with Skitter (and I doubt you’d lie about something Skitter can refute) then my earlier premise of you being new based on the join date might be wrong which would throw my same alignment premise off.

Yes, that is my point. You seem to also be thinking that Faker is new. Faker is Prism.

I don't think you should be basing anything on the premise of people in this game being ineffective or even weak as either alignment because I don't believe that's the case for anyone.

[Coral]

Given you have experience with Skitter (and I doubt you’d lie about something Skitter can refute) then my earlier premise of you being new based on the join date might be wrong which would throw my same alignment premise off.

Yes, that is my point. You seem to also be thinking that Faker is new. Faker is Prism.

I don't think you should be basing anything on the premise of people in this game being ineffective or even weak as either alignment because I don't believe that's the case for anyone.

So it’s an experience thunderdome and mech is irrelevant…

Lovely.

Hi Achilles heel.

Essentially, yes!

I don't think mech is irrelevant, though. Mech plays a role here, it's just very closely tied to the context of dayplay that you'll only find by reading. I think that exact co-mingling of mechanics and dayplay is part of what makes this setup especially interesting.

[Coral]

I don't think they would be useful to answer and I'm not particularly interested in answering them anyway. I have a completed game as both alignment if you would like to read meta.

As for facts, it's true this setup is lacking in them. In the worst case, you could just sheep Tempest!

[Coral]

I'm not really sure what Tempest's reads are, she hasn't updated in a bit, so I don't think they factor in to my point about you sheeping.

I would say tend to lean towards logic and reason and strategy, but am at times tempted into being swayed by gut.

[Coral]

I talked mostly mech because in this setup, it is beneficial to obscure your reads to an extent. I talked about reads significantly less than I normally would as either alignment.

[Coral]

Something that's worth keeping in mind is the differences this setup provides to the natural dayplay.

One is that it's denser. 6v3 instead of the standard 7v2. There will be by necessity more scum interactions with each other, and scum have a larger influence on the thread than usual.

Another is that bussing is generally approached differently and with different goals, since no scum can ever directly vote out another scum. That changes the motivations scum may have to distance and push each other.

There's probably others but those two immediately come to mind.

[Coral]

We could, it's a formality really. I think we just both haven't bothered yet. I doubt Tempest is going to rush into a hammer but arguably not voting allows for the town to share final thoughts before flipping the minigame and not being able to talk anymore.

[Coral]

That's reasonable.

VOTE: absinthe

[Coral]

This is going to be a lot of probably hard to parse words for a relatively small amount of meaningful thought. I'm aware of this, I tried and I can't be concise on this, forgive me. I won't be offended if you skim it, I'm not very happy with it, but I committed to trying to explain my thoughts here and so I'm going to try.

Anyway. Reading back, (as I mentioned already) it's entirely possible that I placed myself in Chara's pocket rather than it actually doing anything specific to put me there

Pocketing is maybe not the right word for what I found suspicious initially, anyway. It's just an approach to the game that centers a lot more on interactions and sending out little feelers to make connections with people, compared to an approach that is focused more around internal solving and worldbuilding. I townread the early game initially just on the pleasant vibes, it felt excited to be here and talk to people, which I think is in a vacuum a good sign. I first got concerned around post 547, where I started trying to track where this thread had begun, and then found some of the early posting to be more suspicious than it had felt when reading it live.

I went to reread some of Chara's games to make sure this wasn't out of range, and instead found that it matched a lot closer to the approach in scum games than in town. I thought the scum games had that distinctive focus on engagement and making connections, while in the town games it was more content to do its own thing. I'm not especially interested in doing a in-depth meta case, I generally try to avoid it, but I'm mentioning it here because that did spark my interest. I'm also going to note here that Isis said this game matched closer to town meta than scum meta, so I might be wrong anyway on meta. Regardless, I think it's at the very least in range.



A couple specific points that stood out to me.

1) The lines of engagement with others. These, to me, feel like they are meant more to get into a conversation, or establish a connection with someone, or appear friendly, or portray itself as comfortable. Early examples include 29, 123, 171, 173, 257, 358. What pings me about these is they feel like the question being asked (or point being made) is not really the goal of the posts.

Okay, but why can't they just be Chara trying to sort people, and genuinely being comfortable? That's what I struggle with explaining here. I don't really have a good answer for you beyond "I don't believe that they are". I guess it comes from a place of feeling like it needs to be the one to move things forward itself. While moving the game forward is Good and Towny, I get a sort of need to prove itself from the posts, which I don't think is a typical town priority.



2) The approach to Isis. I think the framing of it in 1363 as Isis being the one motivated to put them together is inaccurate to what actually happened. Isis mentioned wanting to be in the same game in 261, Chara responds in a somewhat joking manner.

The actual serious push for them being in the same game begins in 425 and for the most part Chara felt like it was the one herding Isis along, certainly not the other way around. Especially with Isis being disengaged with the thread during this time period due to the flight and etc. I think in all of the interactions between the two, Isis comes across as quite uninformed and without a major plan behind her actions, and happy to follow Chara.

The other puzzle piece that doesn't quite fit for me is that Chara outed an Isis scumread in 413, just before declaring that it wanted to be with Isis. The progression

almost

feels relatable to me, from finding a scumread, to getting excited about pushing for a location sort that allows you to take advantage of that scumread and win your minigame, to then revealing the secret read at the start of day 2. But revealing the read beforehand doesn't fit quite right with the rest to me.

~

For the record, I think Chara is playing very well if scum here. I'm also extremely tempted to delete everything I've written every time I read one of its posts, which is making this quite difficult and making me grateful I didn't end up in the Isis/Chara game after all. I don't think this is a slam dunk case or anything. I am more concerned than I would like to be about demona. I feel pretty good about Isis, but not 100%. I wish I could feel the confidence that I felt overnight on this group, but I don't. Maybe it's better that I don't. The fact that Chara seems to be pushing for catboi and absinthe as scum seems like a losing play from it if I'm right and that is making me heavily doubt that I am. I'm just going to hit send anyway though because I've put it off for long enough.

[Coral]

I agree that Gate and Keep should probably be first. Wall feels the murkiest to nearly everyone, and determining the result of the swap seems useful. I don't feel as much of a preference anymore about Gate going before Keep, either seems fine.

[Coral]

But revealing the read beforehand doesn't fit quite right with the rest to me.

Is this a mechanical objection to the idea town!Chara revealed info that would let scum!Isis ship Chara away, or more of a flow objection that town!Chara would throw out and igmeoy with no force and just slunk into making good on the threat when the minigame started?

I think there's at least a little playstyle clash going on but I want to dig up the part that can make the most sense to me.
I'd probably like the EoD FoS better at if it was either fully developed, or completely holstered for this phase.

Moreso the former. It just feels to me like that narrative presented almost makes sense, but reading back the posts I don't see how the thought process completely lines up, going from posting about the scumread to then immediately deciding to push the point of going together while keeping the scumread under wraps.

[Coral]

It's about what I feel is a difference between the way Chara's actions on day 1 reflect its thought process at the time, compared to the perspective presented at the start of today's day phase. This is in respect mostly to its read on Isis and wanting them to be in the same minigame.

It's not strictly mechanical.

[Coral]

The info was about Chara's scumread, not mechanical info.

[Coral]

I agree with skitter, Math, I think there's a lot more nuance to the situation than you're currently giving it and it's reasonable to find that frustrating.

[Coral]

I just think that a lot of your answers can be found by reading the game. I don't think there's anything you've said that's been ignored or rejected. It's just that if you say "Okay, the situation is either A or B. Which is it?" and it turns out there's also C and D and also none of us know and they're all valid possibilities, it's hard to directly answer your question.

[Coral]

It’s either Skitter scum saw the scenario and took advantage or Catboi always wanted that three way situation. So it’s a big ol bottle of wine which.

Like, this is the question that you wanted skitter to answer. She said "or Faker wanted it, hard to say". You took that as a refusal to engage. You're not really asking her a mechanical question though, you're just asking her who she thinks is scum.

There's also the possibility of there being 2 scum in the keep and one needs to get out and there wasn't really any ideal swap that the scumteam wanted. It's possible absinthe really wanted to go to the Gate, and skitter was just the best choice to send to the Keep.

I think that trying to assess which motivation makes the most sense in isolation is unlikely to be productive because in all likelihood even if we get the scum right using it, we probably will not correctly predict the exact motivation behind the swap, and it could be a combination of factors. It's something to consider, for sure, but I don't really think it's a good starting point.

If you'd like my opinion, I think that there were two scum in the Keep, catboi and absinthe. One of them had to go to Gate, which had zero scum. Tempest was the best clear as someone that usually gets read as town eventually. That left only skitter and me as the best swaps, with either catboi or absinthe. They didn't have a lot of options. I had expressed a townread on Faker, and so putting me in there seems likely to lose. skitter was more conflicted.

[Coral]

Considering alternative worlds for the sake of completeness:

1) skitter is scum. It's possible that because Faker was scumleaning absinthe that they needed to get absinthe out, and decided to go for a scum/scum swap for skitter, who Faker was townreading, in the hopes that the conclusion would be that it was a scum/town swap. This seems surprisingly reasonable, actually, so I don't think this world should be discounted. I think it's less likely on play, but mechanically it's possible.

2) Faker slot is scum instead of catboi. I don't know why they swap skitter in this world instead of me, since I had a townread on Faker. It seems like this swap forces it into a world where both catboi and Faker would prefer to vote skitter, and it seems hard for Faker to win.

[Coral]

No, I don't think thats an accurate assessment of my perspective. My perspective is that it's a difficult problem to solve. You're welcome to try, but I think there is too much missing information without any flips to come to a solid conclusion yet.

[Coral]

I think that is most likely, but that stems from my reads on the slots involved rather than vice versa.

[Coral]

To be clear, I have it mechanically confirmed that one of the slots (absinthe) is scum. That makes my perspective on this different and narrower than most others.

[Coral]

To be clear, I have it mechanically confirmed that one of the slots (absinthe) is scum. That makes my perspective on this different and narrower than most others.

Okay so you’re halfway there.

Then if you think it’s an absinthe scum skitter town world. Then the swap is alignment indicative. Meaning scum had to balance the games right?

See 1886 and 1887.

[Coral]

I think I have been exceptionally patient and as un-difficult as physically possible, personally

[Coral]

Scum have to make the games 1-1-1, yes.

[Coral]

Scum have to make the games 1-1-1, yes.

They would do this based upon the information in game yeah?

Then why ignore what seems to be fundamental?

It doesn’t jive.

They would do this based on what would help them most as a team given the constraints of the game, yes. I went over what I think the possible situations are and what the scumteam's possible motivations would be. I'm not ignoring the swap, it is a very important factor in the game. It feels to me like I'm saying "there's nuance here and it's difficult to have a decisive answer, but it's worth considering the possibilities" and you're responding with "you're ignoring it".

[Coral]

Also, absinthe was similarly active to me on day 1. I've been significantly more active on day 2. So I don't think that was a factor on the swap.

[Coral]

If you can figure out the why you can figure out the who is how I like to play.

And I've said that you're welcome to try.

[Coral]

I never accused you of listing possibilities, I said you skipped and discounted possibilities based on little support.

I have taken a stance. I said which one I thought was more likely and why.

[Coral]

If me trying to work with you and talk things through with you is frustrating for you I am happy to stop trying to do so.

[Coral]

I feel like Math is very likely to be town. I think he has a certain energy where he feels like everyone is against him and I think that is much more likely to come from him as town replacing in. I don't think he gets much out of being abrasive as scum here, and I think he's probably capable of taking a different approach if he thought that would benefit him more.

[Coral]

Miserableness Value. Unfortunately I think we (collectively) failed in our goal in minimizing that

[Coral]

someone came out of retirement only to roll scum in this game, what a hilariously cruel fate

Are you calling Faker scum or saying this whole playerlist is retirementers

that was a joke I thought up pregame but I left it intentionally ambiguous to see how people responded. I got some value out of it. Have one strong read.

What was the value you got and the strong read you had at this point?

[Coral]

My current take on the Keep, if you're interested, is that if catboi and skitter both agree that they aren't confident in voting Math (looking that way currently), then catboi should vote skitter. I think Math (and Faker) seems the most likely to be town of the group, and I have a little bit of worry about skitter, but if catboi is town and misreading both then the game is likely lost anyway. I think Math slot is easily findable as town here (bracing for egg) and the safest option would be a vote there, but of course that's only possible if the players in the game agree. I think Math being the one to vote would be the worst possible option.

Most likely in my view is still that catboi is scum, and won't vote. Most dangerous in my view is that town Math goes rogue and votes scum if things aren't going according to his views.

[Coral]

As scum?
I would try to avoid prism/catboi/isis

I think this is probably true, actually. Maybe voting skitter is safe

[Coral]

I'm sure they all have angelic voices

[Coral]

[Coral]

My current guess for the scumteam is ffery coral tammy

I'm not sure i particularly care where they (or anyone else) goes, i just want to try to herd them to the same spot

Aww, cute. We did it, skitter! We're all in the same spot!

[Coral]

Game ends on the 31st. If we wait to flip until after the 25th, we have around 5 days to resolve all three games. Worth considering if we should flip one sooner. Probably is mostly up to Tempest, as our fearless leader.

[Coral]

My current take on the Keep, if you're interested, is that if catboi and skitter both agree that they aren't confident in voting Math (looking that way currently), then catboi should vote skitter. I think Math (and Faker) seems the most likely to be town of the group, and I have a little bit of worry about skitter, but if catboi is town and misreading both then the game is likely lost anyway. I think Math slot is easily findable as town here (bracing for egg) and the safest option would be a vote there, but of course that's only possible if the players in the game agree. I think Math being the one to vote would be the worst possible option.

Most likely in my view is still that catboi is scum, and won't vote. Most dangerous in my view is that town Math goes rogue and votes scum if things aren't going according to his views.

I am confused by this:

You think I am town.

Rules are:

At the Keep, Nutcracker Soldiers must vote on one player. If that player is a Nutcracker Soldier, the Nutcracker Soldiers win; otherwise, the Minions of Summer win.

So you’re asking for a townread of Skitter to vote on a person you scumread, in what world do you expect scum Catboi not to hammer?

I think I am drunk because I don’t get it.

I don't think anyone should vote for catboi. I would prefer that whoever is town between catboi and skitter find you as town and vote for you. Failing that, I would like skitter to be the one voted. If choosing the person who does the voting, I'd want that to be catboi.

You being the person I townread the most means it's the worst option from my perspective for you to be the one who places the vote. Does that help?

[Coral]

It's actually an interesting proposal, for everyone in the Keep to place votes on themselves. Worth thinking about! I wouldn't do it immediately without more thought as to any downsides, but it might be smart. It removes the possibility of scum gambiting by voting and trying to hope someone else will panic vote.

[Coral]

It's also possible that I'm missing something too and this is a terrible idea for some reason so please don't do it without a sanity check

[Coral]

I guess one downside is that scum can end the mini game immediately if they want to cut off discussion, which is something I was worried about earlier. Probably not worth it, then, unless everyone is already ready to move on?

[Coral]

Okay not horrible cool. I think the intent is someone to be hammered since we vote one player.

But if I vote myself it removes a lot of paranoia of derp hammer. So then Skitter and Catboi likely know what you’re saying is true that I am town versus trying to convince Skitter which much as I misread her she misreads me. And Catboi I don’t have many memorable games with but have played with them so I think that works.

No, votes aren't locked. Voting yourself won't provide any information.

[Coral]

Okay, I think it's probably not a good idea, I doubt the benefits are worth much anyway. I like the idea, though.