Open 508: The Law of the Jungle (Town Wins!)

[ChannelDelibird]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't we immediately no lynch so as to narrow it down to 3? We have one wolf and three townies left, yes?

[ChannelDelibird]

By the way: I haven't read the game yet because I don't like reading up when I can't immediately post my thoughts when I'm done.*

*Disclaimer: If I were scum, I would have at least have skimmed the previous day plus however much more I could fit in during the night, but I obviously wouldn't tell you about it. I feel like this should be obvious but I just want to assure you that I'd be playing to my win condition either way.

[ChannelDelibird]

In fact,

VOTE: No Lynch

There would have to be an amazing reason not to do this. I'll still be reading up today but, generally, we should be doing this with a minimum of talking.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why did you feel the need to post that disclaimer by the way? It starts making my head spin with wifom.

I knew that would happen, and I apologise for adding the WIFOM element, but I prefer that to giving the impression that I might be trying to 'game the system'. I would feel bad about the mod adding two days to the night phase to allow for hypothetical CDBscum to read the game and choose a kill, then for me to come into the game now all 'hey guys I haven't read anything so it couldn't possibly be me, right?'. That would feel like I were using the unfortunate mechanic of replacement to win rather than just playing the game, and I don't think that's fair play.

If my math is right (always suspect sadly), we only have 1 mislynch whether we lynch someone today or tomorrow. The only difference is whether we're a man down when deciding on the lynch. So I think the optimal thing to do is to get full discussion with everyone today, then no lynch, then when we're a man down tomorrow, at least we have that person's input and they're conf-town so we can take their thoughts seriously.

My concern is that, the longer we talk now, the more scum get to figure out exactly who is the optimal kill. We (presumably) learned something from their choice of kill last night and their next choice, if made on the same information, should tell us more about their choice than a kill choice they make after we spend two weeks expanding and making cases. We want the scum to be as uninformed as possible because their advantage over us is information. Killing with as little prompting from us as possible helps that happen.

[ChannelDelibird]

Frustratingly, I'm sure there

must

be an MD thread explaining exactly why it's better to no lynch immediately rather than later with greater concision and eloquence than I can muster - mainly because it's been universally agreed at all meets I've been to, with many great players, that that's the best way to do it. I'm going to keep trying to find it but I really think it's best that we do this quickly.

[ChannelDelibird]

You'd also have to say that the one thing scum would like to do today to get town cred is to immediately suggest a no-lynch.

Not necessarily at all; opinions are clearly not as unanimous on this subject as I thought. It's what

I

would do immediately as scum, sure, but it's also what I would do immediately as town. This actually has no relevance to alignment at all, it's just an objective discussion about optimal play.

I may or may not be able to finish reading tonight but, if there's no further support for an immediate no-lynch when I'm done, I'll go along with this and we'll talk before we no-lynch, and I'll answer the questions you just asked. I'd rather scumhunt than drag out an argument about it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, for ease, my username is commonly abbreviated to CDB. Too many CDs from before my time...

[ChannelDelibird]

however if you read the wiki on here it actually points out that by doing that you allow the scum to get rid of town's best player if you like (or who they think would be most useful)

a) Don't believe everything you read on the wiki verbatim. A lot of it is written subjectively, out of context or outdatedly. It's a guide, not a rulebook.
b) Scum "get rid of the town's best player" more effectively when they get a full day's talk to see who is more likely to rumble them in endgame.

[ChannelDelibird]

Well, CDB, I'd love to hear your reads and I won't be voting no lynch until I hear them.

Fair enough.

I'm mid-read at the moment and will finish as soon as I can - tomorrow is the busiest work day of the year, however, so I may be pretty quiet for 24 hours or so.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, looking to finish that catchup starting now. Let's see if we can't break this game open.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, I'm caught up! I'll organise my own thoughts and then respond to those questions you posted, Phil.

HEADLINE:

Jennifer is probably the last wolf.

But let's take it player-by-player.

Stubbs

Starting early - in #18, Stubbs makes the first clear effort to actually scumhunt on page 1, rather than dick around. This is a pro-town mindset.

His readslist in #221 shows repeated genuine consideration of what behaviour is most likely to come from town or scum, rather than just farting out reads for the sake of it. Also pro-town.

His quick post here, when there was a wait for Robocopter to get in and respond to Darthe's claim, just isn't what a wolf would do to their only buddy. At this point, the wolf wants to stall as long as possible and hope that the town convince themselves to do something else while they're waiting. It's not overwrought, it's just cold and factual. Pro-town.

There's a similar desire to cut through the bullshit and get scum killed shown here, when he votes Titus in the midst of that almighty Phil-DBK blowout. Again, scum love this kind of fight and would be most interested in commenting on it in the hopes of either prolonging it or creating a false dilemma between the two. Pro-town mindset once more, which I think is continued in posts like this.

Here, I'm pretty sure the wolf wouldn't be so keen on slowing down proceedings. Self-doubt is usually pro-town.

One or two tiny things have bothered me - Robo's quite specific niggle with asking him to respond to an earlier question here could possibly be less harmful buddy interaction - but, overall, I think it's fairly clear that Stubbs is town.

[ChannelDelibird]

Phil

I was a bit meh on his posts in the first couple of pages but I think that's likely not for alignment-related reasons, just differences in approach. Largely, I think Phil's been pretty town, and I certainly think that the sheer rate and intensity of his posting is hard to fake as scum (I got a lesson about this in another game recently and there's definitely something to be said for the most frequent posters being townier).

There's this post by Robocopter when he says of Phil 'this could be genuine or could be scum ... shrug, probably genuine' which looks to me like the sort of post scum like to make because it makes them look like they're considering things but it's actually pretty empty (when you think about it, you can say of any post 'could be genuine, or could be something they're saying to make them look less like scum'). It also sets him up with a reason to add to suspicion of Phil later down the line should he ever need it ('I was wrong at the time but this did make me think he could be scum'). I don't think that's what you'd do to a buddy.

Robocopter again engages Phil shortly afterwards and, rather like the last one, it has a pretty diplomatic tone. This is Robocopter managing his image rather than actually scumhunting and there's no reason to make yourself look good to a buddy. Think this points to Philtown.

In his own posts, I like the doubt and consideration of the options here as town. The confusion reads genuine. Then this post is a good example of his openness and willingness to change his reads - in my experience, scum hold onto their reads for longer as it takes effort to fake reads so you want to get as much use out of each set as you can before you need to pretend to have reasons to get new ones.

[ChannelDelibird]

Jennifer

While I've liked some of her early-day scumhunting, that's not necessarily limited to town and it seems to dry up significantly once Robocopter dies and she can afford no more mistakes. Jennifer's play has been cautious and quiet ever since we lost a wolf, and I don't think that's coincidence.

There's more than that, though - this series of posts has a whiff of 'caught for the wrong reasons'. This is overly diplomatic and safe - making a show of worrying about there being six (Six!) days until deadline but offering no sign of direction as to where the town should go, and playing up the confusion as if there being two factions makes it harder to hunt for scum in general.

The post when she votes Robocopter isn't about Robocopter at all - it's purely addressing Darthe, being as mathematical as possible. There's no mention of Robo at all other than in the vote tags; I think this is scum who know their buddy has to die today and wants to do it emotionlessly to avoid giving away their connection. Town would make a comment about how Robocopter hasn't posted, or

something

looking at both sides of the argument.

This post shows the state of Jennifer's scumhunting compared to her early game. Early on, she would spot inconsistencies, make a case and vote with some confidence - like here, for instance. In #492, she is very robotic with her vote ("My reasoning is his vote on Voodoo") but, rather than exhibit any kind of conviction in her scumhunting, handles Phil with gloves, asking him to co-operate with explaining and clarifying his vote. That's what you'd do to someone on whom you couldn't make your mind up, not who you've voted in that very same post. Jennifer is desperate not to make a splash.

[ChannelDelibird]

- Who would be the easy target scum would want to target for a lynch today/tomorrow

Certainly before replacement, I'm assuming that it would have been Slimer (i.e. me). It's possible that my coming into the game with a fresh perspective might have changed that, but I don't know.

- Who do you think is the last scum

I think it's very likely to be Jennifer.

- Is there anyone who you think is 100% town (or basically someone you wouldn't consider lynching)

I've been burned too many times before to say there's anyone I'd absolutely rule out, but I think Stubbs is pretty close to obvtown.

[ChannelDelibird]

Sod it. I'd end up here anyway.

UNVOTE: No Lynch
VOTE: Jennifer

[ChannelDelibird]

Ofc if you were the wolf, you could easily make a case against Jen. In fact, I'm sure anyone could make a case about anyone at this stage based on a selection of posts.

Possibly, but making a case and other people believing it are different things. Don't doubt it "because scum could fake it", doubt it if there's reason to think it faked.

is CDB being too keen? Coming in and providing this brilliant case, is it too convenient? Clearly an experienced player, so could easily be capable of it.

There's no reason for me not to be this keen. I replaced into a 50-page MyLo, it would be irresponsible of me not to put the requisite effort in. I'd obviously do it as town and I'd attempt to imitate it as scum - the difference being, if I were scum, I'd have to be faking reasons to be suspicious of Jen. So if you think my reasons hold true as part of a clear thinking process, there's no reason to think me scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Jennifer, my voting you today only makes a difference if there were any chance of you being nightkilled after a no-lynch, which I don't think is very likely, do you? If both of us were alive tomorrow there's a strong chance I'd be voting you anyway based on the reasons I've detailed.

A no-lynch works well enough, and I'll go along with it if it happens but I feel pretty confident that we'll win if we lynch you today.

[ChannelDelibird]

/prod-dodge

Yeah, so I want to lynch Jennifer today or no-lynch and then lynch her tomorrow. Let me know when we can get on with either of those things.

[ChannelDelibird]

Guys, do we really have to make another replacement read through 52 pages? Can we not just end this?

[ChannelDelibird]

Flaking out in LyLo is much more likely to happen as scum than town, btw. I've done it.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Penguin_alien

Nice to see you, but you're scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

I've been certain that you're scum for a couple of weeks and wanted to get it over with yesterday. I have no reason to waste anyone's time; I'd get here anyway.

[ChannelDelibird]

So, uh, hey Stubbs, help me out here

[ChannelDelibird]

Wake me if you need me.

[ChannelDelibird]

prod dodge, please end this

[ChannelDelibird]

C'mon, Stubbs.

[ChannelDelibird]

When I glanced over the game before replacing in, I figured BoroPhil was the werewolf based on how he was supporting CDB's charge on Jennifer; not sure why CDB killed him.

You can't offer a reason why I would have killed him because there is none. Phil would have voted for you with me; there is no way that I would have nightkilled him.

CDB came in yesterday and put together a case on my slot and was quite prepared to push it through at MyLo. I've been in situations where MyLo is no different than LyLo due to a conf-town being present without PRs, but that wasn't one of them.

How dare I be right yesterday.

I appreciate you putting the effort in, penguin, but you did basically concede with that first quote there.

[ChannelDelibird]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah

end this

[ChannelDelibird]

Sorry, I know this isn't the most productive behaviour in the world. It's super obvious to me because it just wasn't going to be either your or Phil, and we got to that point such a long time ago now. I can understand wanting to take your time but I explained why Jennifer was scum Yesterday, have since been proved entirely correct, with a nightkill that I would not have made in the meantime.

I don't know what else you need.

[ChannelDelibird]

HURRAH!