Open 545: Nothing to Hide (Game over!! MAFIA WINS!!!)

[toolenduso]

Hey everybody. I'm reading up and will give my thoughts later today. For now I have at least these questions.

@ABR: Why the vote for TvK? What do you think about the game right now?

[toolenduso]

Reads list:

Town:

>TSO: #103 strongly suggests town because it looks like TSO not being confident in how bjc would flip, which fits with him not voting for him either. Banter with bjc in #111-115 also doesn't look like scum partners. Meta generally fits with Guyett's mini where he was town.
>Vonflare: He would have to be a really good scum player to have the confidence, nerve and skill to pull off bussing bjc like that. Vonflare is likely town.

Null-town:

>havingfitz: Put bjc at L-1, which looks more town than otherwise I think. Asked a lot of questions, but that's null.
>Sakura: Early jump to bjc wagon looks town-ish. Not much else to consider.

Null:

>ABR: Hasn't done a whole lot but is pursuing TvK. Need more input.
>Anorway: Hasn't contributed much. Null.
>TvK: #62 is quite confusing. Right after voting for bjc he says that Tlachta's vote on bjc was quite bad. Why? #95 looks towny because it suggests he doesn't know how bjc will flip. Albert suggests that this could be fishing for town points -- I could see that.
>anxiety: Not much to go on.

Null-scum:

>Desperado: Trying to not only lead, but control town. Behavior isn't exactly manipulation, but wording implies agreement without it necessarily existing. Gives broad reads on multiple players and acts like they're strong without giving any reasoning. Read on Matias was especially strange and the fact that his first post was used to vote for Kaiveran makes it look like he picked a target and then decided to pursue it. Hammer on bjc could come from either direction. If he's scum, Kaiveran is town. If Kaiveran is scum, Desperado is town.

Scum:

>Kaiveran: Starts off with joking and post #22 seems off somehow. It just kind of comes across like he was trying to look town because he dropped a hint about his wincon and the wording of the third sentence looks like unnecessary eagerness. Vote for TvK made no sense. Response to HF in #34 about Sakura suggests that if Kaiveran is scum, Sakura could also be. Point against anorway in #80 was super weak, could be reaching/opportunism. In that post, he also talks about wanting to extend the day longer, which looks like waffling on bjc, who he has said looks the scummiest but hasn't voted for at that point (this was when bjc was at L-2.) After Desperado's hammer on bjc, Kaiveran says he wants to lynch Desperado no matter how bjc flips and then proceeds to go after anorway at the beginning of D2.

@ABR, anorway, TvK and anxiety: Please give your reads.

VOTE: Kaiveran for all those reasons.

@Kaiveran: Why are you voting for anorway?

[toolenduso]

Whoops, you're right I missed that. Doesn't change a whole lot though.

[toolenduso]

Tool, I hope you're ready for another home run, compadre.

Sure am! We're on the right track anyway. And I've got a pretty good winning streak going.

But I'm not so sure about TvK. How does his play look different to you between this game and The Darkness Within?

hmm

Unvote: tool

@ABR, anorway, TvK and anxiety: Please give your reads.

I'd rather just have a conversation and comment on people as I go instead of formatting everything into a single list.

I'm fine with that. I asked because I want to get a better read on my nulls.

16-18 wagon grows on anorway, bjc reaction: "Well, I don't like it. So stop it." Imma go ahead and guess bjc wouldn't make that comment about a buddy.

This is a good point.

[toolenduso]

The only person Matias suspected was tlachta. Scum are trying to frame tlachta. TvK votes tlachta. There's your connection.

In my experience, with a player list like we have, scum would NOT kill Matias if he was right about tlachta.

The reason why:

-Matias wasn't active enough to be a threat
-Matias didn't drop any PR tells or obvious breadcrumbs
-Matias didn't play enough to be considered as tunnel vision on tlachta

The only reason to kill Matias is that they wanted everyone else kept alive, because they thought they could easily frame somebody the next day; like tlachta.

Or they think Matias is a good scumhunter by reputation.

I believe TvK fits the bill for both of these.

These are all good points, and TvK's responses to Albert's case don't make him look any better.

Here are my reasons to vote Tool/Tlachta:

-Tlachta was my second biggest scumread last day
-Tlachta's vote was the scummiest of all of the votes on Bjc
-The people that voted Tlachta were either one of my top townreads (TSO) or flipped town last night (Matias)

-So bjc's flip and the night actions don't change anything for you?
-Have you explained why yet? I don't remember you explaining this.
-Fair enough I guess.

TvK never responded to ABR's #190.

What's to explain? Don't you like it if people who are town give their final reads in twilight? Because of the fact that I am not scum, I wasn't 100% on what Bjc would flip.

This is basically a reiteration of what Albert was talking about before -- the scum explanation for this statement is TvK fishing for town points.

I'm leaning more scum on TvK, but I still think Kaiveran is a better lynch today. His post #204 is way defensive and fits with scum who have gotten off to a bad start with a partner getting lynched day 1.

@Kaiveran: Why did you start off the day voting for anorway?

By the way, if it wasn't clear I am quite confident that Albert is town.

[toolenduso]

unvote, vote: havingfitz

I know sakura hana was on v/la but where's anorway...

Why this vote?

@Kaiveran: Is this your first game back after a hiatus? And if so, when was the last time you played before?

@ABR: What are your thoughts on Kaiveran?

@TSO: Reads? Particularly on anxiety and Kaiveran?

[toolenduso]

Also, Kaiveran, why did you vote for anorway at the beginning of D2?

[toolenduso]

re: Vonflare's #240:

Sigh. It seems like somebody who doesn't know Albert posts something like this at least once in each town game of his. I should know. I did the exact same thing once. Here's what I posted (warning, it's lengthy.)

I learned my lesson, and in the last game was able to accurately townread Albert based on his meta. Here's one of those posts.

I can elaborate if you want, but trust me...based on his posts so far, I really think Albert is town.

@Albert: Desperado's defense of TvK doesn't look too scummy to me because it looks a bit too middle-of-the-road to be scum interaction to me. I would think scum would rather use that sort of situation to either distance themselves from their partners by pushing against them, buddy them in a super obvious way so that people read their interactions as too obvious to be scum partners later or just ignore the situation completely.

Kaiveran's #239 gives me more of a towny vibe from him because it gives what seem like genuine explanations for some of my concerns about him. I'll answer your questions in the next post, btw.

On TvK: He has been looking scummier and scummier ever since Albert started pressuring him. In #209, he says "it is possible" that Albert's points against him "could make sense" despite being "drenched with WIFOM." This is the kind of language I would expect somebody to use when they're trying to manipulate the person they're talking to by seeming reasonable and open-minded. Except it doesn't make sense to be open-minded about a case against you if you're town because you know that the person attacking you is wrong and could possibly be scum.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing to be reasonable or open-minded, but the way that TvK just suddenly switched to that mode of speech, during a time in the game where suspicion was beginning to swing his way, looks like he's doing it consciously in order to manipulate people away from him.

TvK's reasoning as to Tlachta's vote seems a little weak. He says it was bad because he jumped onto a fast-moving wagon without any reasoning at all -- this would be a good reason to suspect somebody who hopped onto a wagon against town, but bjc flipped scum.

Then comes more "I'm reasonable and open-minded" language at the end of post #206 and #210. It feels like a kind of buddying in the hopes of decreasing the suspicion on his slot. Then he caps it off with a switch to the biggest wagon, Kaiveran.

VOTE: TvK

[toolenduso]

TOOLENDUSERLICENSEAGREEMENT

>Kaiveran: Starts off with joking and post #22 seems off somehow. It just kind of comes across like he was trying to look town because he dropped a hint about his wincon and the wording of the third sentence looks like unnecessary eagerness. Vote for TvK made no sense. Response to HF in #34 about Sakura suggests that if Kaiveran is scum, Sakura could also be.

(a)

Point against anorway in #80 was super weak, could be reaching/opportunism.

(b)

In that post, he also talks about wanting to extend the day longer, which looks like waffling on bjc, who he has said looks the scummiest but hasn't voted for at that point (this was when bjc was at L-2.)

(c)

After Desperado's hammer on bjc, Kaiveran says he wants to lynch Desperado no matter how bjc flips

(d)

and then proceeds to go after anorway at the beginning of D2.

a. How do you figure?
b. It was still pretty early D1. I don't recall there ever being super strong points there, generally. Plus I wanted to see his reaction, and probe him into contributing more (which obviously didn't work.)
c. This is wrong, but has been addressed earlier. Only thing I'd like to ask is why you think it doesn't matter that I had already voted for bjc by this point (Specifically, I put him at L-4.)
d. Not much to say here...I didn't actually

say

that, mind you, but the difference between suggesting someone be lynched and suggesting someone is good for Vigilantes to shoot is pedantic.

a. In the last game I was in (Bert's mini, "The Heart of Artificial Reality"), both scum partners read each other using a pretty similar approach to the way you were reading Sakura in that post. Basically a non-committed "idk"-type response.
c. My read on you has shifted, but the reason I said that it didn't matter is because your wording looked like a non-committal approach to bjc and thus actually served to weaken the reasoning behind your vote against him.
d. You did say that though.

What's to explain? Don't you like it if people who are town give their final reads in twilight? Because of the fact that I am not scum, I wasn't 100% on what Bjc would flip.

This is basically a reiteration of what Albert was talking about before -- the scum explanation for this statement is TvK fishing for town points.

Okay, I can see how you can feel like I'm fishing for townpoints there. But how did that single post make Albert that incredibly sure that I am 100% confirmed scum?

Because that's how townAlbert plays. He plays his reads close to the chest and he's very sure of himself when he feels like he has somebody pegged as scum.

I can see how your read on me is developing and I understand that. But Albert is tunnelling so hard on me for that single post. And so far he hasn't been able to convince anyone else of that, seeing that he's still the only one voting me. If you ask me, I think his tunnelling is at least anti-town.

Anti-town...meh, maybe. He can play anti-town sometimes, like voting for people he doesn't really think are scum in order to get them to do what he wants. Doesn't make him scum though. In his case it actually lends to the case of him being town.

Also, ABR wasn't scumreading you based on one post. He was scumreading you based on your posting arc, one post in particular and then your response to his pressure.

[toolenduso]

Well it helps that when you came back you voted for a person with no votes on them, who most people seem to be townreading, for "gut" reasons, and you're halfway challenging people to find you scummy.

[toolenduso]

tool, I don't like how you are using another player's meta to defend them.

OK...? I don't care if you don't like it?

Are you saying meta isn't useful at all? Because I'm talking about one specific player. Meta is one of the only tools you need to read Albert, that's what I said in The Darkness Within (where I accurately read him as town based on meta).

[toolenduso]

And what among those reasons actually looks scummy to you?

[toolenduso]

Albert, you really think TvK would fake a result on his own partner at L-1?

I don't.

Yeah that doesn't seem likely to me. But it probably doesn't matter because if Desperado isn't scum he's probably dead tonight.

If TvK is town then I think we need to take a look at anxiety tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

So...those last two posts from Sakura look pretty contrived to me. Like "hey guys I know I sheeped onto a fast-growing wagon against town, but I'm innocent I swear!"

@Albert: Why Kaiveran?

@anxiety: Why did you vote for TvK the second time?

[toolenduso]

You knew there was a hider in the game but you didn't know that TvK had claimed hider?

[toolenduso]

Whoah

[toolenduso]

Well that kills Kaiveran's theory about drawing six Ts

[toolenduso]

tool, what do you think of Anxiety?

The vote on TvK makes him look pretty bad to me, but I want to hear his response to my question. I feel like I need to go back over his ISO though.

I'm not sure what to make of Sakura's claim. There's enough to make me doubt it, but I wonder why scum would claim with pretty much zero pressure.

[toolenduso]

Well in one way it was a good idea. Scum won't want to kill her now knowing she could commute whenever, so we should have a clear assuming she's telling the truth.

Which is what I'm going to work on for now because I can't think of a reason for scum to claim
in the way she did.

[toolenduso]

@Albert: Could you explain your vote on Kaiveran please?

@Salmonella: Could you give a reads list, or just thoughts on the game?

On anxiety:

hmm

Unvote: tool

@ABR, anorway, TvK and anxiety: Please give your reads.

I'd rather just have a conversation and comment on people as I go instead of formatting everything into a single list.

After saying this, anxiety *kind of* commented as he went, but he really didn't say a whole lot. In #246, for instance, he replies to somebody, explains himself, gives a town read and a null read and asks a question. #180 is probably where he does the most analysis, and even then it seems kind of lethargic. A lot of his comments are just responses to things about him or comments directed toward him (as opposed to active scumhunting), which looks a little like a self-preservation-type attitude.

So from where I'm sitting it kind of looks like anxiety has made an effort to stay out of the spotlight and move things toward a mislynch. His vote on TvK was also pretty shallow -- his original reasoning was sheeping, and his second vote on him was justified by quoting a question he asked TvK earlier.

VOTE: 4nxi3ty

I'd still like to hear his answer to my question, but I feel like this is the best place for my vote.

[toolenduso]

@tool and sakura: what are your thoughts on the kaiveran wagon?

The wagon itself? I don't know, I feel like the membership is fine, and it doesn't seem like it has too much momentum atm.

As for the wagon's target...kaiveran has said some scummy things, like in #401 when he goes for the easy shots against Albert without saying a whole lot about the game itself or his play.

But other things he's done have seemed towny, like his response to me in #239.

I don't see a big reason to vote him and I would feel much more comfortable lynching anxiety right now. So I guess if I were to sum up my thoughts on the kaiveran wagon I would say "I don't really support it but I don't feel like it's scum-driven or all that big of a concern right now."

That being said, I would like to hear more from kaiveran.

[toolenduso]

@Salmonella: if you were to vote for somebody right now, who would it be and why?

@TSO: Same question.

@Sakura: Why are you voting for anxiety?

@vonflare:

for me:

Vonflair is town

I am flabbergasted.

Vonflare is Town.

It makes you likely town, not confirmed town.

For sakura:

I'm 1-shot commuter. I can only exist if there's a hider.

you claimed 1-s commuter. and everyone believed you.

Not exactly. My reaction was that we can't really say much about her claim either way, so it's null evidence unless something else comes to light.

What do you think of my idea of a massclaim?

I'm not sure. It could out PRs to scum. I guess maybe we could use the claims to check them against the setup and find a pool of people who could possibly be lying about their claims...? I don't know, could

Sakura

weigh in on this since she's played similar setups before? If we were to massclaim, would we be able to use knowledge of the setup possibilities to narrow down a pool or are there too many possibilities to do that with a good chance of success?

or my case on salmon?

It's...not much of a case tbh. I was just in a game where scum did something very similar and the person they were defending wasn't scum:

I dont enjoy the idea of orci being scum i rlly dont ok so can u guys stop calling him scum thanks

I think if anything it's a point in the town column for the anorway/SD slot.

Now I'd like to hear why you dropped your votes on anxiety and kaiveran so easily? Especially anxiety. He may have argued well against your points, but what do you think of my case against him?

[toolenduso]

Scum is in Kaiveran, Tool and TSO.

no, no and no.

Convincing arguments on both sides...

Albert, could you explain please?

If I wanted to stay away from the spotlight I would've followed the popular Kaiveran lynch instead of fighting it. Same thing with attacking fitz who hasn't been a scumread for others. Probly would've made sure my reasoning for joining the TvK lynch sounded more decent than just sheeping too.

Well, no, not necessarily. I would say hopping on bandwagons (which you didn't do with Kaiveran) and giving thorough, developed reasons for voting for people (which you didn't do with TvK) would both be examples of putting yourself in the spotlight. So the opposite -- avoiding the Kaiveran bandwagon and giving a bunch of reasons or otherwise not just sheeping when you voted for TvK -- still look like trying to stay out of the spotlight to me.

But now we're on the edge of wifom territory, so to prevent the discussion turning in that direction I'll have to do some meta research on you.

Unfortunately, work is busy and I have a day trip coming up this weekend so I'm not sure when I'll be able to do that. We have time until deadline though.

[toolenduso]

No time to explain.

Deadline:

Monday, March 17, 2014 at 10am Central Time

[toolenduso]

OK so I'm posting from a tablet, which I've never done before, so I'm not going to do fancy stuff here like provide links.

I did a meta dip of anxiety, looking at Empking's game and POTUS mafia. In POTUS anxiety was town and in Emp's he was scum. I would encourage town to ISO him in both those games and pay attention to his votes. Overall, it looks like anxiety puts more thought into his votes when town. When scum, he will provide reasons but they don't seem to be as developed. That makes his voting in this game look a bit more like his scum meta.

The biggest thing that jumped out to me was the way scum anxiety hopped onto the lynch of a townie day one in Emp's game. Just like in this game when he voted for TvK, anxiety posted nothing except his vote. He put the townie at L-2 both times as well.

So yeah I think my vote is going to stay on him.

[toolenduso]

for future reference, post 110 and onwards by bjc is an attempt at tying, both vonflare and tso are town

Good points, but people have already kind of pointed them out in-thread, which makes me wonder why you're bringing this up now...

Still not seeing Albert as scum, none of these behaviors people are calling scummy are all that surprising to me :/

Also,

Bah, I'm going to sheep onto the Kaiveran wagon for the sake of actually having a useful vote

VOTE: Kaiveran

Why this switch?

[toolenduso]

I need to look into anxiety more before I make a decision there but he hasn't done anything that's stuck out as scummy.

Did you look into anxiety and has your opinion on him changed at all?

[toolenduso]

pretending to be town as scum does keep the suspense up so there's that

Oh good, I was starting to wonder if maybe you were town but this helps put my mind at ease.

So assuming anxiety flips scum, I think that all but clears Albert.

[toolenduso]

Which would make SD my number one candidate for scum tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

So assuming anxiety flips scum, I think that all but clears Albert.

The contrary actually (I hadn't read what vonflare posted before ABR's hammer), if anxiety is scum i can see ABR doing a bus panic hammer in the same way as what happened D1. But then again maybe i'm just tunnel visioning on ABR because of his "if you're not voting my scumreads you're scum"

Well add onto it that Albert just immediately believed anxiety was town after the hammer and started distancing himself from the lynch and that makes the scheme more complicated and harder to pull off if Albert were scum.

Possible, yes, but to me it looks very much like town. Also, I would think scum would be much less likely to hammer buddies after one member of their team had already been mislynched.

it's not like I'm town pretending to be scum pretending to be town with that comment or anything, that would be ridiculous

No, just scum pretending to be town.

[toolenduso]

To make town chase their tails over his twilight interactions for the rest of the game. I've seen several people do it before for that reason.

[toolenduso]

I need time to read, look at the setup and think about this. Today's not the greatest, but I might be able to get to it. If not today then tomorrow.

Quick question to vonflare: could you explain why kaiveran is a town read for you? Is it still the same as post #453?

[toolenduso]

It was dumb of me to think I would post yesterday (I had work and other things to do), but it looks like we're mass claiming anyway so I guess I don't have much to say until that's done.

[toolenduso]

Well it tells us there's definitely two scum left and that one is definitely a JOAT right? And it would also tell us what the JOAT can do -- I think. Would the JOAT have a roleblock, ninja kill and strongman kill in all cases or only if there are four Ts?

[toolenduso]

VT. I believe TSO is the last one left to claim?

[toolenduso]

Yeah so vonflare is scum. Let's take a look here:

N1: Kaiveran: goes nowhere (so the VT claim is prob true)
N2: Anxiety: goes nowhere
N3: Albert B. Rampage: goes nowhere (dies)

Those are his claimed night results. Note that they are all safe for scum to fakeclaim -- Anxiety is dead and flipped VT, Albert is dead and flipped as somebody who tracker couldn't get a result on, and aegor is a claimed VT as of this post:

I am VT. Havingfitz is next.

Vonflare says that Aegor is clear:

Oh btw, Kaiveran-slot is telling the truth. I will explain after everyone claims.

...despite a negative tracker result not meaning that player isn't clear. Another inconsistency is here:

BJC was scum! hahahahahaha.

VOTE: kaiveran

...so vonflare got a negative result on Kaiveran N1, then comes right out of the gate voting for Kaiveran D2, only to reverse his position during massclaim and say that the Kaiveran slot is clear? This does not compute.

Then fitz gets him to post his night actions, and when fitz reveals that he jailed vonflare N3:

I'm a jailkeeper.
N1 I kept no one.
N2 I kept Desperado.
N3 I kept Vonflare.

Unless I was RB'd last night (1:8 odds?)....it would appear Vonflare is lying about his N3 action.

...vonflare posts this:

WAAT?

OMG I just checked. I was roleblocked last night. the PM was "there is nothing to report".

I thought that meant that ABR went nowhere, but now I understand. It meant I was roleblocked!

Fitz is conftown.

VOTE: salmonelladreams

I know, you prob don't believe me, watever. But when you lynch me, and I flip town tracker, You will know that fitz is conftown, so at least I played some purpose.

I should of realized that "there is nothing to report" meant roleblock.



oh well.

that leaves SD, T S O, and Tool as my scumspects.

Personally, I think that the mod should have made it more clear that I was roleblocked in my PM.

any questions?

and BTW aegeor, take your vote off of fitz please. he is town.

...despite already having quoted how his results are supposed to be phrased here:

1) it was phrased like this:

"{playername} goes nowhere."

...which means he would have known what his PM would have looked like had he not gotten a result N3, had he actually been a tracker.

So basically, vonflare has backtracked multiple times on this claim, and now he's fake scumhunting in the hopes that attention gets diverted elsewhere.

VOTE: vonflare

[toolenduso]

...despite a negative tracker result not meaning that player isn't clear. Another inconsistency is here:

*not meaning that player

is

clear.

[toolenduso]

T S O,

Vote fitz. Claiming VT and then changing to a PR deserves a lynch, regardless of alignment. Fitz's results are just as non-definitive as vonflare's.

Yeah but fitz was a claimed VT. If he were scum, and safe as a claimed VT, why would he suddenly change his claim to JK?

[toolenduso]

So you think fitz gambited in the hopes of clearing both himself and vonflare?

And if that's the case, why is fitz the better lynch of the two?

The way I see it, fitz could very well be town telling the truth -- the motivation would be that he wanted to wait to reveal his actual role so that he could catch scum lying.

[toolenduso]

...

so you're sticking with the tracker claim then?

[toolenduso]

OK well I was thinking it was Salmonella but I have to say this push from aegor and TSO feels coordinated.

Nobody vote yet. That should go without saying but you never know.

[toolenduso]

Actually it has to be one of you two if not both so.

[toolenduso]

Do you really think we'd be so blatant, tool? Really?

Um yes, of course I think you’d be that blatant as scum. All you’d need to do is convince one townie to vote and there ya go…

Then who is it?

…that being said, I’ve been to this point in a game before and I messed it up. The lesson I learned last time is you keep your options open for who could be scum. Two out of you, aegor and SD are scum, so my chances are pretty good. If I had to put together a list right now it would go SD, you, aegor.

I’ll take my share of blame for being on the vonflare wagon but god damn did he put town in a bad position. Future note for vonflare and anyone else reading this game in the future:

DON’T SELF-HAMMER AS TOWN.

[toolenduso]

I will read through this thread today to find out. I am not liking tool's "case" on vonflare at all.

You just said vonflare had a terrible claim and yet my case against him was bad? What was so bad about my case?

[toolenduso]

Are you scumreading Aegor/SD?

SD’s hop onto the vonflare wagon looked bad, and he also has dropping the hammer on TvK on his resume. So that’s why he’s at the top of my list.

Aegor I put at the bottom because I feel like if he were scum with stated suspicion on fitz in-thread he would want to keep fitz alive to get him mislynched the next day. But obviously I don’t know what scum talked about during the night so it’s hard to say why they did what they did. It’s not enough for me to consider him clear or anything.

You I don’t have anything damning on, but that doesn’t mean you’re not scum. I’ll need to go through your ISO.

[toolenduso]

Might I ask why I’m in the top two on everybody’s scum list?

[toolenduso]

ISO reads:

Spoiler: Anorway/SD

Bjc post #18 + #31: not weird interactions with anorway
SD post #287: gives two reads – TvK as scum, ABR as town. Doesn’t really elaborate. TvK is the easy lynch at the time.
#311: drops hammer on TvK (this is his 8th post)
#421: defends why he doesn’t post much/give very much input when he posts.
#461: first vote for vonflare, not much reasoning.
Keeps pressing vonflare based on vonflare not agreeing that one of his points is weak…
#530: votes kaiveran, admitting he’s sheeping.
#541: doesn’t want to vote for anxiety because he’s at L-1. If scum, it’s because he knows he can’t drop the hammer on a townie two days in a row and get away with it.
#693: votes vonflare “for obvious reasons,” putting him at L-1. Doesn’t elaborate.

tl;dr: this slot stayed out of the spotlight and placed votes on two townies in pretty scummy ways, but seems distanced from the Kaiveran/Aegor slot because of certain votes.

Spoiler: Kaiveran/Aegor

Kaiveran generally doesn’t post often, but posts walls when he does…
#80: agrees bjc is his top scumread
#117: says Desperado should die tomorrow regardless of how bjc flips.
#139: with first post of day 2, votes anorway
#204: defends pressure on desp by saying he wasn’t the only one uncomfortable with the hammer, votes desp
#271: hops on TvK wagon, is third vote with six needed to lynch
#508: votes SD for gut reasons. This is the second time Kai has voted for that slot, making it seem less likely that they’re partners.
#594: calls ABR being nightkilled “a total framejob” before anybody brings that line of reasoning up. Right before dying, ABR’s top scumreads were myself, TSO and Kaiveran – this looks like kaiveran preemptively telling town that ABR being nightkilled was meant to set him up to be lynched.
Aegor replaces in at this point…
#613: one of his first posts, argues that we should massclaim because then town will know the setup so scum can’t fakeclaim – which is wrong, because scum obviously did fakeclaim, and I feel like that should have been obvious at the time. Also asks for fitz to claim first. This is important because later he starts pushing against fitz pretty hard, making it look like scumAegor could have replaced in, picked a target for mislynch and started pushing him right away.
#614: realizes he was wrong about scum fakeclaiming, says that massclaim should happen anyway with no further explanation.
#664: suspicion on fitz comes to fruition with a vote.
#684 – 708: continues to push on fitz. Even says we should policy lynch him tomorrow (way too late in the game to consider policy lynching as pro-town), and says he’ll vote fitz the next day no matter what, even if vonflare flipped town.
#708: says he was never in favor of vonflare getting lynched, which is kind of a distortion of the truth. He said both vonflare and fitz should be lynched, and even listed vonflare as one of his scumreads in #634.
#728: says he didn’t like my case on vonflare yesterday without explaining why. He didn’t complain about it at all the day before and agreed vonflare should die (even if after fitz).

tl;dr: This slot might actually look the worst to me upon reading back. Both players have contradicted themselves and backpedaled on their statements, and possibly made a scumslip in post #594.

Spoiler: TSO

Day one, generally likes to ask questions. Doesn’t post reads lists or give a whole lot of insight, which is in the interest of scum to do D1.
#111-140: looks town because his twilight banter with bjc looked like he believed bjc would flip town as claimed, and he was willing to reverse his scumread on vonflare rather than push vonflare for contributing to the bjc lynch.
Having a hard time pulling specific posts because he generally doesn’t post long, elaborate thoughts. Since I have experience with TSO as town I know this is more of a playstyle thing…
#442: one of a couple posts of him sort of buddying Albert. Not that I can exactly claim innocence in this area lol.
#456: one of several examples of him buddying me. Votes anxiety, putting him at L-2.
#606: coaching a partner not to claim…….????
#635: kind of lets Aegor talk him into thinking vonflare is scummy. Associative tell with aegor perhaps?
#690: votes vonflare, putting him at L-2, not a whole lot of reasoning but presumably is sheeping my case.
#732: I don’t like this. It kind of feels like I’ve caught him and Aegor and he’s trying to distance himself from his partner.

tl;dr: generally seems towny, but doesn't like to put himself in the spotlight, which serves a scummy purpose. Lots of buddying of various town slots, and appears connected with Aegor/Kaiveran slot from certain posts. Post #606 could be possible coaching to a partner.

Ending conclusions: The TSO and Aegor/Kaiveran slots look like partners when I go back through their ISOs. So one of those two is where my vote is going, but not until everyone gives their input.

[toolenduso]

Bjc post #18 + #31: not weird interactions with anorway.

*weird interactions with anorway.

[toolenduso]

We know based on flips that there are 2 H's, one I and one P. That's four power roles, which means that if there wasn't another town PR there would be three Ts, and three Ts would mean there's a serial killer.

So unless we have a seriously lucky SK who decided not to kill anybody this game, a seriously unlucky SK who targeted the same people as scum every night or a townie who's lying about their PR, your claim has to be genuine.

[toolenduso]

also im surprised that no one except SD is suspecting TSO? (or did i get that wrong).

Yeah I suspect TSO/Aegor.

[toolenduso]

Ironically SD and tool feel more coordianted than Aegor and TSO, as they both have managed to both be going for the exact same 2 people.

Is that the only reason we look coordinated to you?

What about TSO and Aegor coming right out of the gate today pushing against me, then switching to bussing each other once I pointed out that they have associative tells in their ISOs?

Also, did you read the cases people posted and do you agree/disagree?

[toolenduso]

This is classic LyLo where both scum are attacking me and one misguided townie's doing it too. There's absolutely nothing I can respond to, yet everyone's calling me scum.

I posted some stuff about you here.

Also, which two are the scum and which is the misguided townie?

[toolenduso]

I know I'm getting mislynched no matter what I fucking do, I've been here before.

Nobody's even voted yet, sir, so why are you acting like the game is lost already?

[toolenduso]

I'd really ask Sakura, even though I know she's hellbent on lynching me, to look at the lack of a concrete ANYTHING against me.

Uh...she said she was thinking SD and I were a scumteam last time I checked.

There are no associatives, no scumslips, no cases.

K well I've listed two associative tells I found between you and Aegor's slot as well as one potential scumslip from you. Of course you're going to say they don't exist, but you're not really arguing against them.

The scumteam of Aegor/TSO must have agreed to attack tool straight away in their QT, in order to win LyLo. When the person they were pushing to lynch, tool, pointed out some "associatives" (and I'm using this word in quotations marks for a FUCKING REASON - THEY DON'T EXIST.), instead of continuing to attack tool, we turned on each other because ...?

...because you don't want to be linked to each other. So when I start saying that you are, you and Aegor try to put some distance between each other.

Also:

For the record I'd probably lynch me too.

I'm thinking Aegor and TSO, but if my accuracy with voting is indicative of how right I am, I'm probably wrong :/

I don't like this at all. SD is kind of acting like he's about to get lynched here even though there's kind of an equal amount of suspicion on him as there is on anybody else. Then he gets self-deprecating with his reads, kind of like he's leaving the door open to sheep somebody on a mislynch.

[toolenduso]

First associative tell:

....dafuq? I've yet to fully catch up, but wow.

ABR acts scummier throughout the day, culminating with an awful hammer on Anx, only to be NK'd?

This feels like a total framejob.

This is the first post made the day after ABR got NK'ed. It feels like Kaiveran preemptively saying "I was framed!" before anybody actually threw around suspicion based on Albert's death.

Following the line of logic of scum NK'ing ABR to frame somebody -- how would ABR's death frame somebody? Perhaps because of who ABR suspected? That list was myself, TSO and Kaiveran. So to me this is Kaiveran defending all three people on that list against suspicion based on Albert's death

before anybody has a chance to bring that suspicion up.

Second associative tell:

I felt he came off strongly thinking that bjc was Town. I can't find the motivation to do what he did as scum: if it was me, I'd just completely lurk out twilight, whereas he was defending Desperado when everyone was mentioning policy vigging him.

Though the posts you bring up worry me. I'm going to look back over vonflare.

In the meantime, talk to me about Salmonella.

You defend vonflare, then go on to say that the posts Aegor just quoted make you worry and say you'll take another look at him. In your next post, you bring up a newfound question connoting suspicion on vonflare. Later, after the massclaim, you become the second vote on vonflare.

To me, the quoted post looks like it could be you letting your partner give you a reason to go for a known mislynch.

Possible scumslip:

this is excellent. come massclaim, her claim's surrounding area could nail a scum somewhere.

The scum motivation behind this post would be to warn your partner not to be in "(Sakura's) surrounding area." The town motivation for it I'm not so sure of. It feels anti-town, because why would you want to put out information that could let scum know where you're looking for scum?

@Salmonella and Aegor: You should respond to my cases against you as well.

[toolenduso]

I've seen everyone of you point 2 possible scumspects, gun to your head, if you had to vote right now who would it be (66% chance to catch scum since i'm conf town?)

Probably TSO as of right now, but I'd like to hear his response to me. After thinking about it a bit more, I'm not sure if my "dissociative" tells between the Aegor slot and the SD slot are really all that dissociative (I'm pretty sure the votes in question came at a time when neither was at all that great a risk of being lynched), so it's hard to say who would be second and who would be third on my preference list.

Also, did you read people's cases against each other and do you have anything to say about them?

[toolenduso]

Also, SD is like 100% scum. Not only have his actions in this game been 100% scummy, he was town in a game where I was scum, and he is acting nothing like that game (lurky but generally competent). I almost never appeal to meta, but I am telling you, he is scum.

Could you link to that game please?

[toolenduso]

This has about three conditions that need to be filled before it's usable as a point. It's a ridiculous post to bring against me. This point assumes Aegor is scum, and points to you being Aegor's partner

100% as much as it points to me.

It requires scum to have killed ABR to frame someone - why? Why didn't they do it an earlier night? Etcetera. I'm not responding to it, and it feels like you're really clutching when you're using an associative tell linking to yourself.

Yeah, but I know I'm town. I just happened to be on ABR's list. I'm not saying this is like smoking-gun, red-handed-type evidence, but taken with the other associative tell it starts to look like a pattern to me.

Let's start off by saying that you're a fucking hypocrite. Let me remind you that you immediately attacked vonflare for his claim; you made a long-ass case against him and mercilessly pushed him. And you have the gall to call me scum for doing the exact same thing as you? For re-aligning my reads in the case of a claim which looked so scummy it deserved an auto-lynch?

But, whatever. We'll go through this again, so I can point out to other Town players how doubly wrong you are.

I talked to Aegor. Aegor made me realise that my read on vonflare wasn't as strong as I had remembered it to be. I re-read, saw I was wrong and voted vonflare. Point out the scum motivation in this statement, tool.

OK let's be honest here, "mercilessly" is a bit of a hyperbole. Regardless, I see your point about the town explanation for this in terms of listening to Aegor. It helps to balance out my thinking on this point, but I still take it in stride because there is a 66% chance you're scum and I have my first point to think about here too.

You don't even understand what I was talking about, do you? This isn't a scumslip; this is me trying to warn off scum claiming Commuter because you can't verify the claim. This is practically a townslip.

re: the scum motivation: I would tell or have told my partner in the QT, not blatantly post it in the thread. I have never once coached in a scum game, ever. I am strongly against it.
re: antitown: It's not anti-town, and even if it was, anti-town =/= scum.

I took it differently. I didn't see the town explanation behind it, but now I do. It kinda makes sense, but it's sort of like with my second point -- I can't just let the point go because I have a town explanation to balance out the scum explanation. One of those two explanations is correct and I can't be totally sure which one.

Wait a minute, you've made a fucking case on everyone?

Yes. I'm paranoid about everyone left except Sakura.

In summary: Maybe my case on you isn't as strong as I thought, but that doesn't necessarily make it wrong. You're not off the hook. I'm going to look at a couple things for SD and Aegor now.

[toolenduso]

Fakeclaim

PRs

obviously. Scum can always fakeclaim VTs. The problem is that scum know whether there are PRs in the game, and thus can fakeclaim PRs in lylo. That is bad. In fact, that is exactly how my team won my last scum game.

How would scum know whether there are PRs in the game?

I found fitz scummy. My suspicion of him was completely justified when he claimed VT and then reneged on his claim after vonflare botched his claim. Your idea of pushing hard does not correspond to my own.

Yes. Fitz's claim was terrible and hella scummy. If vonflare flipped town, the most likely possibility to me was that Sakura and Fitz were both scum fakeclaiming. This would make sense since the maf clearly knew early on that there was probably no SK. Thus a fakeclaim could be delivered early, followed by another as necessary. And surprise, fitz's came after vonflare's, and directly contradicted it.

Vonflare was lynched for his claim, which was no worse than fitz's.

I guess what bothered me most about your push on fitz was that after I pointed out the town motivation behind it you kept acting like he was basically confirmed scum, and I didn't get that because to me it made sense that fitz and Sakura both telling the truth was equally as likely as both of them being fakeclaimed scum. So...why did you think that fitz and Sakura lying was the most likely?

I never realized I was wrong because I never was wrong about the setup; those were the only two options for the setup. I simply made erred in assuming that scum would not be able to fakeclaim PRs, which was not important (to me, at least) anyway. A massclaim in lylo means we could be trying to decide the accuracy of 4 or even 5 PR claims. That seems undesirable to me. Massclaim should

without exception

be performed before lylo. This is textbook.

OK, the massclaiming before LyLo makes sense. But I don't understand what you mean when you say scum fakeclaiming PRs wasn't important to you...?

#708: says he was never in favor of vonflare getting lynched, which is kind of a distortion of the truth. He said both vonflare and fitz should be lynched, and even listed vonflare as one of his scumreads in #634.

Total misrep:

And I was never in favor of lynching vonflare when fitz should have been lynched instead.

I was pretty clear that I wanted fitz lynched before vonflare, who proved to be an easy mislynch.

Yes, you said you wanted fitz lynched before vonflare, but you still said you wanted vonflare lynched here:

So... Obviously fitz and vonflare both need to die as soon as is possible.

Which contradicts you saying "I was never in favor of lynching vonflare."

[toolenduso]

If I try to make a really bad, convenient vote, call me out on it.

Does this mean you trust that I'm town? Because this kind of feels like you investing trust in me that it wouldn't make sense for town to have in LyLo.

Help me understand the town mindset behind this statement.

The TvK wagon was regretful. I was strongly relying on ABR's confidence, because for ABR to express such a strong read like that, he'd have to be pretty damn confident in his read. I was also a tad overeager to jump into the game.

Yeah, I've been lurking. I'm really bad about it.

...OK. I feel like these statements could be helpful when going through your meta.

vonflare made that really awful vote and claim request on anxiety, followed immediately by an unvote. Throwing around claim requests like that reeked of rolefishing and is what led me to vote him. I also really didn't like his push on me. It just didn't make sense to me and I couldn't just ignore it.

All right, that helps me understand your push against vonflare a little better. What's missing here is consideration of vonflare's actions earlier in the game. Did you take those into consideration when you pushed against vonflare the first time?

I sheeped onto Kaiveran's wagon because it was the next best thing and my vonflare vote was going absolutely nowhere.

vonflare butchered his night actions. The inconsistency was indicative of scum backpedaling when put under pressure.

Both these statements are kinda sheeping actually, but obviously agreed at the time about vonflare's post-claim actions. I feel like these statements should also be helpful when looking through your meta.

[toolenduso]

Meta research is taking a while so I'll post about it later, but in the meantime...Aegor, I looked through Salmonella's posts in the Razzies game you linked to and I felt like it wasn't too far off from his posting in this game. What did you think was different about it?

[toolenduso]

Welp, now either we lose or one of Aegor or SD (if not both) is confirmed scum.

How do you figure?

[toolenduso]

...I don't think that answered my question.

[toolenduso]

I'm really not sure. Meta research has shifted my reads a little bit but I feel like I need a bit more.

[toolenduso]

VOTE: SalmonellaDreams

[toolenduso]

God I hope he flips scum.

[toolenduso]

VOTE: SalmonellaDreams
VOTE: SalmonellaDreams
VOTE: SalmonellaDreams
VOTE: SalmonellaDreams

[toolenduso]

Haha well I guess that was a lynch.

Yes I was scum. Aegor's my partner obv.

Good job buddy!

[toolenduso]

Of huck

[toolenduso]

Wait a second. SD was my partner...

[toolenduso]

fuckfuckfuck

[toolenduso]

Oh my god I should not play whil drunk

[toolenduso]

Oh well gg i guess, and ftr i did use my commute last night.

holy crap we almost targeted you. lol wow.

@TSO: isn't it like 2 am where you are? Did my psychic brainwaves reach you from thousands of miles away and tell you to wake up so we could hammer?

[toolenduso]

Some quick thoughts:

Albert and vonflare had us pegged, but didn't have enough credibility to see it through, IMO.

I got pretty nervous when the massclaim happened.

Also supercred goes to TSO. I really had to read your ISO with a bias to come up with a case (not even a good one) against you because you're super good at looking town while you're scum.

TSO <3

[toolenduso]

Yeah Aegor, you were catching on.

I have no idea why Albert thought that TvK was lying

[toolenduso]

Ha I actually got scared for a second then I thought of like five reasons why you can't be a SK.

[toolenduso]

As you can see in the Scum QT, I was off on all my PR speculations, except T S O and I agreed that Albert was a PR of some kind.

vonflare: self-hammering doesn't make town believe your reads. It pisses them off.

[toolenduso]

@fitz: I checked with the mod before we submitted our actions that night and he said that a RB would stop you from jailing somebody. So since I RB'ed you, if you had jailed TSO instead then your action should have failed and TSO's kill should have gone through anyway.