Open 572: Nightless Vengeful Mayhem - Game Over

[shaddowez]

VOTE: cheetory

I don't want cheaters in my game!

[shaddowez]

VOTE: Cheetory6

?

[shaddowez]

I like Dys right now, but it could be the avatar.

Cheetor

- You're at L-2 in just RVS (outside of Johnny's "serious" vote). What do you think of your wagon so far?

It was a hypothetical to explain why yyr's question was pointless

Not for why I voted you.

Droog

- You wanted to tie up the wagons, but then realized your count was wrong. Do you have a reason for keeping your vote on Cheetor now?

[shaddowez]

What aout YYR's vote didn't look serious to you?

It was his second post, and was a naked vote after a seemingly innocuous question/response. While he did answer before I made my post, it's easy to give reasons retroactively.

[shaddowez]

Not necessarily, but it still felt like an RVS vote to me.

[shaddowez]

Also, to answer your defense, she basically pointed out that wagon analysis is wifom

I don't think this is what's being said at all...I think the point is just being made that people hopping on a bandwagon for no good reason makes it difficult to actually perform VCA. Basically, if town is filling up the wagon it's easy for scum to hop on and hide in the middle.

[shaddowez]

Goal for this game: Beat NM to a page top post.

I know the game just started tonight, but it would still be good to hear from the rest of the people.

Blair

- Why do you have a slight town read on Droog? I understand the null, but don't see anything townish yet. I know there are some people that like to townhunt rather than scumhunt early game. Is that how you usually play?

Also, I don't think "useful scumhunting" looks like something in particular

This looks like a useful defense for later in the game. What made you vote Cheetory?

[shaddowez]

I quick hammered because he already had 6 votes and I was impatient and am

new to mafia on this forum

I'm not buying the bolded part. Unless you've never, ever played mafia before, the theory should be the same wherever you played. Just because you're new on this forum isn't an excuse to quickhammer.

VOTE: wgeurts

I believe that's L-1.

[shaddowez]

NM, you're a bot aren't you?

[shaddowez]

Hey everybody - sorry for the disappearing act, today didn't go as planned. Also - this is a shameless prod dodge/extension, and I will be back Sunday night.

[shaddowez]

I'm back and beginning my read through now. I know I missed a lot, so if anyone wants to point out any relevant posts or ask specific questions, feel free! I'll be trying to put together a reads list too, but that may wait until after my first round so I can do ISOs.

[shaddowez]

I think it was opportunistic. Nobody was really questioning wgeurts just yet, so she jumped in to start it. In a vacuum, this isn't scummy, but in the context of her other posts, I think it is.

I actually thought shaddowez' vote was worse.

I didn't like his jump on the wgeurts wagon - his reasoning felt a little forced to me and the timing looks like scum wanting to make sure to hop on the end of the wagon before all the good seats are taken.

(I realize this basically necessitates they both be Scum, which is my chief concern with this theory)

To an extent, this was a policy lynch. Anyone that comes into the game, reads only enough to see that somebody is at L-1, and lynches doesn't help town, even if they aren't scum. I also knew that I most likely wouldn't be around for a few days, and wanted to get my vote in. If a lynch hadn't occurred by then (which I didn't expect it to not), I could have reconsidered my vote.

I quick hammered because he already had 6 votes and I was impatient and am

new to mafia on this forum

I'm not buying the bolded part. Unless you've never, ever played mafia before, the theory should be the same wherever you played. Just because you're new on this forum isn't an excuse to quickhammer.

VOTE: wgeurts

I believe that's L-1.

I'm kind of not buying that you're not buying it. Or rather, have you never seen players doing weird or not thought through things, or been kind of clueless? (Actually I think most of us are, sometimes :3 *raises hand*). My point is, what you're pointing out as the point of suspicion here feels weird to me. It doesn't make him any more likely scum or town from my point of view. Unless he deliberately quickhammered with the plan of playing a newbie card afterwards, which I find unlikely.

I'm curious about your reads at this point, if you have any you are willing to share? Your shaddowez name is so mysterious! =O

I don't understand what me not accepting his "I'm new to this forum" excuse has to do with players doing weird things or being clueless. I absolutely accept the fact that people do things that make no sense, I do too. Wgeurt's excuse for quickhammering was being new to the forum, not new to mafia. If he had said "I'm a newbie, I didn't know what I was doing", I would have had a much different view.

Reads list will be upcoming.

What other areas would you like to expand on?

For starters, my first red-flag of the game: Shaddowez

I'd like your input. Am I being irrationally paranoid, or did it look as bad to you as it did to me?

So, I get it. You didn't like my vote on wgeruts. But why are you addressing it to everybody but me? (Everybody in this case = Thor and Acryon)

I like Dys right now, but it could be the avatar.

I quick hammered because he already had 6 votes and I was impatient and am

new to mafia on this forum

I'm not buying the bolded part. Unless you've never, ever played mafia before, the theory should be the same wherever you played. Just because you're new on this forum isn't an excuse to quickhammer.

VOTE: wgeurts

I believe that's L-1.

in iso these are the only two reads of yours i found


please provide me with your list of reads before i decide you dont have one
because you dont have reads
because youre not scumhunting
because youre scum

I'm scum for not providing a reads list? Does that make everybody that hasn't provided one scum?
Also, look at my recent activity -
oh right, I don't have any
because I haven't been on site

Vote: Blair

In this phase I support getting something out of the Fokem slot, even if it's just a replace and then a new player's thoughts...though, really, that would be about the same thing.

@Dys - I do second Droog's request for your reads. (edit - and hello wall, though I see you put off the read list. I guess I'll go and read it all though)

@Shaddowez - I would like your top scumspect please, also I would like your thoughts on both the Blair and YYR cases as they currently exist.

@Acryon - I would like your top scumspect please, also I would like your opinion on lurkers.

My top scumspect right now is between YYR and Dys. I'll be giving the YYR slot some leeway as he replaced out, but I did find his activity so far scummy. His inital vote placement was weird, and his reasoning seemed extremely weak to me. He also came in to prod dodge, promised a post by that evening, then replaced out without saying anything. I'd definitely like to hear what the replacement has to say. Dys has been fairly active, but many of her posts are walls of text that have a lot of words but don't really say anything.

I'm really null on the Blair case right now. There seems to be a lot of disagreement between you two on how things are being said/asked/whatever, but there isn't much substance to the argument itself (that I can read, trying to read up on 10 pages of mostly that in just a short time is rough) that makes me think she (or you, for that matter) are scum.

[shaddowez]

Reads list, as promised.

acryon

- Town. He made a strong entrance after the D1 lynch was already over. He's been asking questions and pushing for answers, and isn't backing down on his own stances just because people are questioning them.

bins

- Not enough info as she just replaced in, though it already looks like she's starting to fluff post. Haven't seen anything at all from this slot yet, so I'll be keeping an eye here.

Blair/Thor

. I don't usually do people together in my reads list, but almost feel I have to for this one. I'm null/town on both of them. They've both been very active, though Thor moreso with more people than Blair. They're both pushing their own stances, and it seems to be more of a personality and linguistic argument than anything substantive to either being scum. It is difficult to read through the argument to much of anything else, so it is possible one of them is scum trying to obfuscate anything useful in the game, but I don't think so at this point.

droog

- Leaning town. I didn't like him in the beginning, especially with the vote count/placement issue. However, he's definitely been providing for the game since then, and genuinely scumhunting. Also, it's be an interesting gambit to outright push for a possible mislynch just for policy.

Dys

- Scum. It could be how she plays, but she seems to throw some sort of emotion into most of her posts...humor, outrage (feigned or not), etc. It's not scummy in and of itself, but to me it slightly distracts from the rest of her post. It's not quite AtE, but it strikes me as odd. She's asking a lot of shallow questions, and most of her replies seem like redirects or brush-offs. As I said in my previous post, there's a lot of words, but not a lot of content.

Phil

- Town. He's been offering explanations and answering everything directed at him. He's also been giving town info about his thought processes, while scum are often likely to just say what they're thinking with no good reason.

YYR

- Leaning scum. As explained in my previous post, his initial hop onto Cheetory was based off of a very weak case. He was pushing to find out whether Cheetory was seeing Johnny as scum or town, and the fact that Johnny flipped scum raised my hackles quite a bit on this one.

I don't like voting a slot that has an incoming replacement, so I'll vote for my other scum read at the moment.

VOTE: Dys

[shaddowez]

Dys

- Sorry, missed this in my last runthrough:

Goal for this game: Beat NM to a page top post.

I know the game just started tonight, but it would still be good to hear from the rest of the people.

Blair

- Why do you have a slight town read on Droog? I understand the null, but don't see anything townish yet. I know there are some people that like to townhunt rather than scumhunt early game. Is that how you usually play?

Also, I don't think "useful scumhunting" looks like something in particular

This looks like a useful defense for later in the game. What made you vote Cheetory?

Did Thor ever explain his town read of droog?

What do you mean by "useful defense"? It's how I view the game, basically. I voted Cheetory a bit because he was very calm and I was curious to why, and if more votes/larger wagon would get some kind of stuff happening, and a bit because why not.

I mean that saying "useful scumhunting" doesn't look like anything in particular seems like a good setup to be able to not do much. If people later on down the road say "it doesn't look like Dys is doing much in the ways of useful scumhunting", you could say "Well, I am scumhunting in my own way, how do you know what "useful scumhunting" looks like?"

[shaddowez]

bins - Not enough info as she just replaced in, though it already looks like she's starting to fluff post. Haven't seen anything at all from this slot yet, so I'll be keeping an eye here.

LINK TO MY POSTS THAT ARE FLUFF

I'll address the rest after this League game.

Are you an alt?

Not really an important question, I was just curious.

I was like: Hey, 15 pages! Easy as fuck!

But then I read through it and I'm not going to lie I pretty much glazed over the Thor/Blair interaction due to the fact that Blair might be one of my stronger townreads. I'd still like to double check everything though, but I am done reading. My reads will be coming shortly.

I'm currently reading up. I expect to have a post out by tonight, if not, I probably got distracted by America's Next Top Model or something.

[shaddowez]

@shaddow & acryon, I'm referring to the newbie game where I put Billy as my "want to lynch so so so bad" read.

I remember this game all too well....it's the only one I've been in with you (I think), so I'm trying not to pull too much meta from it though.

[shaddowez]

He also came in to prod dodge, promised a post by that evening, then replaced out without saying anything.

You say this like it's remotely unusual?

I haven't seen people promise a post, and then request a replacement. Usually if people disappear they get replaced by the mod for inactivity.

I'm really null on the Blair case right now. There seems to be a lot of disagreement between you two on how things are being said/asked/whatever, but there isn't much substance to the argument itself (that I can read, trying to read up on 10 pages of mostly that in just a short time is rough) that makes me think she (or you, for that matter) are scum.

Were you able to follow Blair's dodge and/or not consider it a dodge?

Are you talking about the very beginning of this spat, in posts 81 and 82? If that's the case, I think she skirted around the answer some, but don't know if I'd call it a dodge necessarily. From there is where it seems to degrade more into wording and personality than anything significant.

I give mild town points to Bin for clearly having that post in pocket. If there had been a long delay I would have called her scum. Eh.
Probably mild points for Shaddow too, though I dislike most of his conclusions and reasoning.

I'm intrigued that so many like Blair - I feel like no one understands my case on her. Would anyone like to discuss it?
I'd also be pretty content with a Dyx lynch.
I'd rather not lynch YYR today, I think we can do better.
Anyone want to talk about any of this? Anyone not understand the case on Dyx or Blair?

At this point I don't like Blair any more or less than I like you....you're both flooding the thread with redundant, circular arguments (with each other, at least. Discussions with other people seem to be going places).

Which conclusions of mine don't you like?

[shaddowez]

Are you talking about the very beginning of this spat, in posts 81 and 82? If that's the case, I think she skirted around the answer some, but don't know if I'd call it a dodge necessarily. From there is where it seems to degrade more into wording and personality than anything significant.

Do you think her goal was to understand my point or to attack me?

It doesn't seem like much of either, IMO. It looks like word choice and interpretation is an issue. It also appears that Blair is starting to get on the defensive, which to me is a null tell. I've been called scummy multiple times for just trying to defend myself when I'm being questioned/called scum, and I've been town every time.

Liking the new crop of reads

I'm willing to entertain scum Thor (suddenly feel like his questions only prove into discussion of what he asks -- will look later)

But he's not a top read

I'd like a few real flips before tackling Blair/thor

^The bolded part. I really don't think they're both scum, and am having a hard time believing it's not town v town. I'd rather see more hardread flips than this just yet.

Also emphasizing that a votes intent, once declared, ABSOLUTELY cannot vhange

I may be missing the context in being able to infer what you mean from this. Are you saying that once a vote has been cast, you always want that person lynched, regardless of if you change your vote? Or just that while a vote is on a person, it's because that lynching that person is it's intent?

So, I get it. You didn't like my vote on wgeruts. But why are you addressing it to everybody but me? (Everybody in this case = Thor and Acryon)

Acryon: I brought up your vote in response to him talking about opportunistic voting on the wgeurts wagon.
Thor: He asked me what I would like to talk about.

You: You're never around. And I sort of expected you to respond when I started talking about you? Didn't realize I needed to address you directly to get your rebuttal.

P-edit: Sorry, I thought it was implicit: It's scummy. I don't think she's as scummy as Phillammon, though, which is why I asked you about him immediately after.

I think it's unfair to say I'm never around....not around at the same time as you, absolutely. Also, please see my (new) signature if you ever wonder why I'm not posting. Also, if you're specifically asking other people about a topic (me), that's fine, but I don't understand why you wouldn't ask me specific questions if you thought something I was doing was scummy. Also, notice that once I did get back to posting, I did start responding to you without direct interaction.

Phil

- Town. He's been offering explanations and answering everything directed at him. He's also been giving town info about his thought processes, while scum are often likely to just say what they're thinking with no good reason.

I recently accused him of "just say[ing] what they're thinking with no good reason." Thoughts on that?

I didn't like 183...that one just seems tacked on and sheepy. I feel many of his other posts are more in-line with my read...134, 150, 275.

I haven't seen people promise a post, and then request a replacement. Usually if people disappear they get replaced by the mod for inactivity.

I'll admit I didn't like the timing of this, either. It's not much to go off of, though.

If this was the only thing, I wouldn't be scumreading it...I went into more detail in the post before that one, this was just my response to Thor about doing that being unusual.

[shaddowez]

Are you talking about the very beginning of this spat, in posts 81 and 82? If that's the case, I think she skirted around the answer some, but don't know if I'd call it a dodge necessarily. From there is where it seems to degrade more into wording and personality than anything significant.

Do you think her goal was to understand my point or to attack me?

Liking the new crop of reads

I'm willing to entertain scum Thor (suddenly feel like his questions only prove into discussion of what he asks -- will look later)

But he's not a top read
I'd like a few real flips before tackling Blair/thor

Ah, gotcha. Thank you for the clarification

[shaddowez]

@Mod

- Can you please edit my last post to take out the quotes (everything but the last line)? Didn't preview it, but not sure why the extra quotes showed up...

[shaddowez]

Phil

- Town. He's been offering explanations and answering everything directed at him. He's also been giving town info about his thought processes, while scum are often likely to just say what they're thinking with no good reason.

I really don't get this read. Also, I disagree with the last sentence. I think town is generally more likely to just say what they are thinking with no (apparent) good reason, while scum tend to explain cause they have to create a town narrative in their head. (Of course this depends on the player, but I don't agree with what you're saying here).

I'd very much like an updated opinion on the YYR slot/Fink, and also seperate opinions on Thor and Blair.

I'll admit, when I do reads lists I don't necessarily go by every single post. I look at every post, but if I'm getting a decent read on someone, I generally only start paying attention to things that really stick out to me. I may have skimmed over some of Phil's scummier sounding posts by doing that, and will revisit this, especially since I don't like his most recent post, 455.

As for my last sentence, I can of course only speak for my own playstyle definitely, and what I've experienced. I always like having reasons for what I'm saying, even if that reason is gut. If I'm trying to convince people that my scumread is actually scum, it doesn't help to say "just because". Scum do, as you said, try to get into a town mindset, but it seems that you have to extract more info than they give willingly.

I'll provide the reads you asked for in my aforementioned reads list.

I mean that saying "useful scumhunting" doesn't look like anything in particular seems like a good setup to be able to not do much. If people later on down the road say "it doesn't look like Dys is doing much in the ways of useful scumhunting", you could say "Well, I am scumhunting in my own way, how do you know what "useful scumhunting" looks like?"

I could. And so could anyone else. It works for anyone. It's not meant to be "useful defense", it's just how I see the game. I very much view this as a people game, and people are different. Which is much excite.

You are correct. However, you are the one that specifically said that (paraphrasing) "useful scumhunting doesn't have a particular look". That's why I called you out on it, and said it looked like you could be setting up a defense for later.

[shaddowez]

Work sort of exploded tonight, so no reads list....sorry. Will get to it tomorrow night though.

[shaddowez]

Alright, updated reads list as promised. Let's see if I can do this without boring anyone to death.

acryon

- I initially had a fairly good town read on him based on his entrance and his interactions with people. However, he's since moved down to the null/lean scum category. His reads list in 382 seems to be all over the place....certain people with content are null while others are lean-scum, and some of his other reasoning for reads is extremely weak (imo). The argument about voting for your top scum read seems to be reaching a bit far in my mind. In many of my games, we would rarely have a not-deadline lynch if everyone voted for just their top scumread. The fact that he uses that as part of his scumread on Thor bothers me as well. He also mentions that Thor and Blair have "monopolized the thread", but then starting in 454 he takes on Blair's mantle and does the same thing. In my previous reads I had listed that I felt the Blair/Thor argument was town/town, but I'm not getting that same feeling with the acryon/Thor interaction. He also continues to refer to YYR well after he replaced, which makes me think he's not even paying attention to the Fink replacement.

bins

- Has to be a null. Seemed like she was fluff posting a bit as I said in my last read, and her reads list wasn't very indicative to me of alignment. Will have to wait on her replacement to get an actual read.

Blair

- Here's the first of a few of my difficult reads. At this point, I still believe she's town. It appears that she picked the fight with Thor inadvertently, but never backed down from it. There are many points in the arguments where some could read that she's avoiding questions or trying to slip by, but to me it seems more a lack of understanding of where the questions are coming from/what exactly Thor is trying to get at. Sometimes people just don't mesh communication styles well, and this seems to be one of those situations. Her interactions with wgeurts on D2 were fairly null before the flip, but I don't believe scum would have been pushing for info the way she was knowing that he was town. Her push on Phil seems authentic as well, and is still pushing for reasons from people on their reads/votes.

droog

- Going to say more solidly town now. I liked his counter arguments to acryon's "must vote your number 1 read" posts. The fact that he brings up that most people have him as their top town read and that scum is somewhere reads as town to me. I know it's sort of WIFOM, but I think a post like that would make people look at you closer, which would be extremely brazen to do as scum. I'd like to see a little more activity, as he has a lot of posts with not much in any of them, but I do like the game progression he's looking for in those posts.

dys

- I'm still thinking scum on her, though possibly not as strongly as before. Based on ISO's, I could see an acryon/dys scum team though. Now, into the actual meat of my read on Dys. I have the same feeling about the acryon/Thor argument as I do about the Dys/Thor argument. It feels like rather than an actual conversation, it's measured responses to make sure she doesn't get caught in a contradiction. Her reads list in 477.478, and 479 are another instance of being very wordy without saying much. Almost all of her reads could have been limited to two or three sentences, but instead she has lines upon lines, spanning three posts. The fact that she doesn't provide any reads on YYR because he replaced out also seems convenient, if YYR's slot were to flip scum. I agree that replacements can change reads on a slot, but that doesn't preclude one from giving a read on the player that was in the slot. In 494 Dys says she's not going to respond to Thor anymore because it feels like it's going nowhere, and then directly corresponds with him again in her next two posts (559 and 560. I did like her push on Phil which didn't feel like bussing, which is probably the only reason I have a slightly less strong scumread on her right now (I know my original read on Phil was town, his read comes later). I'm still comfortable with my vote where it is, however.

Fink/YYR

- Null/leaning town. I have my YYR case explained in my previous reads list, so I'll focus on Fink here. I appreciated his intro to the game, although giving the interim reads was a little interesting as it appeared that his reads on some people changed in very few posts. The thing I did not like at all, however, was the fact that he didn't even mention his slot until 485, where he makes the comment about "knowing the YYR slot is town" and talking about Phil's case against him. He's not letting things slip by (556, 557 for example), and seems to be genuinely trying to understand motives.

Phil

- Intial town read, now beginning to lean scum. His intro reads list seemed to have some effort put into it, and his questioning of wgeurts seemed to be town-motivated. His next few posts don't have too much in them, so they're a null read to me. In 183, his read on Johnny seems very fencesitting, and he doesn't provide very much original though on Blair, as he admits in the very beginning ("a lot of the same things Thor's been calling out"). In 328 is where things start to go downhill. He admits to not having read the entire thread between Blair and Thor, which leads me to two questions: 1) How can he know what context things that follow are in? and 2) How can he be sure he didn't miss anything thrown at anyone else as not all of the posts were purely Thor-->Blair or vice versa. He mentions that she's scummy for her defense of YYR, but defending other players is townish in the next paragraph. He then talks about looking closer at the Dys case, and mentions three specific posts. He talks about the first one in 455, which he resolves at "isn't all bad", then says he needs to still visit the other two, which he still hasn't. In his next (and only post since) post, 558, he gives an argument for Dys that's similar to the one I'm using here, but (imo) worded much more poorly. He also says that he's going to look at things that aren't Dys' ISO, which precludes us from hearing anything more on the two posts he mentioned in his previous post.

Thor

- Are there any roles that allow you to be both town and scum? That would be an easier case to make than either alignment. I'm finding his actual content very hard to get a read off of, which makes him null based on that. Some of the methods he's using, particularly post flooding, seem like something scum would do to hide their alignment. However, most strongly based on his major interaction partners (Blair, acryon, and Dys), I have to say I feel he is town. There has been no lack of him trying to offer explanations (though his snarky attitude often leads to dodgy sounding answers), assuming people actually ask the right questions. His voting record does not seem suspicious to me - the fact that he considers wgeurts and Blair scummy doesn't actually require him to place a #1 and #2 scum read and only vote for #1. The wgeurts wagon was gaining steam, so there was no reason to move it and attempt to start a counter wagon. He is definitely pushing people's buttons, but I could easily see that as being a way to get people to catch themselves in contradictions or just all-out flail. In his dealings with Blair, there definitely seems to be a lack of understanding between them in certain phrasings/motivations, but they are continuing to probe into each others posts and reasons. With both Dys and acryon, I feel that Thor is pushing on them for reasons, and they are both looking for anything that could possibly be a hole to try and place him as scum for.

[shaddowez]

@Shaddowez: You seem to have come back to this pretty strongly as a scummy thing about Dyslexicon lately, but it was Droog who first said "useful scumhunting", Dyslexicon had just come in 2 posts later to argue with him about whether or not YYR's thing was pointless, essentially saying that he shouldn't be ruling things out as pointless so quickly. So Droog did have an opinion that this was useless while Dyslexicon did have the opinion you don't like (nothing is necessarily useless), fair enough. But isn't it weird to jump on this as Dyslexicon setting up a useful defense, seeing as it was in reply to "I can't imagine any useful scumhunting coming from that question"?

I mean you seem to be giving this a lot of weight, but in context of that section of the thread, it seems more like a throw-away "Don't be so quick to shut down discussion" sort of comment. Why does it seem so significant to you?

Why isn't it a null-read we-think-about-things-differently comment?

You are correct, Droog did first use the term "useful scumhunting". The phrase that I disliked was when Dys said "I don't think "useful scumhunting" looks like something in particular". If there was nothing else to my argument but that, I would have definitely just let it pass by as an "I don't like it", but not necessarily as a scum tell IMO. However, considering I already didn't like other things about her posts, it was just another point on the scuminess scale for me. The only reason I ever went back to it specifically was because Dys asked me about it - I never brought it up again of my own volition.

[shaddowez]

Thor

- Why are you against a Phil lynch? Also, what are your thoughts on an acryon wagon?

[shaddowez]

@Shaddowez: What do you mean by not liking that I "didn't even mention my slot"? I'm not sure what you're saying.

I've never replaced into a game (Well, that's technically a lie - I replaced into one but it was still in confirms), so I can't say exactly how I'd act. However, I imagine that I'd look at my slot's ISO first and see what kind of interactions they had and deal with them early on. You didn't do that, and just started providing your own reads on people. That's what I didn't like - not a major thing, just something that struck me.

When you say you already didn't like things about Dyslexicon's posts and this was just another point on the scuminess scale, we're talking post 78. What were all the things you disliked about her before that point?

I'm sorry, I had misunderstood your second part of that line of questioning. Yes, at that point in time it was just something that pinged me, so I pointed it out. Had Dys never asked me about it, there's a good chance I would have forgotten about it/ignored it except for when doing ISO reads. I'll often call out lines from people that I don't like, even if I have them as strong town reads. It gives me something to look at again later, as well as bringing it to other people's attention to do with what they will.

[shaddowez]

You can read YYR's ISO in about 20 seconds. I didn't just jump in and start providing my own reads because I wasn't wanting to deal with how he interacted with people, I jumped in, started reading the thread and providing my own reads because there wasn't anything to go on. And frankly, I'm still trying to figure out what that question to Cheetory was about.

Honestly, I find my own reads much more worth discussing than YYR doing one weird thing and then posting "I'll catch up tomorrow, I swear" a few times.

Fair enough - like I said, not having been in that situation I just may have been seeing it differently.

[shaddowez]

What do you think about the points in my read on him? Specifically the questions that I brought up, and the fact that he was going to look at Dys' ISO, then looked at one post and randomly decided to stop looking at Dys' ISO?

[shaddowez]

Another reason I ended up voting for Blair instead of Thor is that when I made my big list of Blair quotes on the previous page, it stood out to me that she kept undercutting Dys while seeming to defend her. Maybe it was just a weak defense of a weak read, but it seems more likely to me at the moment that it's a good way to support a mislynch without being one of the early people driving that mislynch.

Thoughts?

So do you think a scum-Blair would have tried to change her mind at some point and hop on the wagon, or continue to sow distrust while trying to White Knight?

[shaddowez]

Forgot I had a wedding to attend tomorrow, so I won't be back around until Sunday night.

acryon

- I saw your recent post about questions you had asked me, putting it in this post to remind myself to look into it when I get back on.

[shaddowez]

Sorry for the absence guys, but...well, see my sig. Also, wedding yesterday.

We're at a seven day point, is the plan legitly to just grind this out he whole way?

I'd rather not sit around and wait for the whole time, but is there any motivation, town or scum, to hurry the vote in a standard(ish) game?

I would love to see someone throw some spit on one of the 2 vote wagons.
Acro, Shaddow, new Bins guy whenever he shows up - are top contenders for that as their current votes are doing nothing useful at all.

I still like my Dys vote, but really don't see her being scum with Acryon, who is my next highest scum read. I'm willing to compromise on him or Phil to ensure a lynch. Since I saw some votes on Acryon, I want to reread before moving my vote to make sure I don't derphammer.

I specifically was talking about Thor dominating the thread, not Blair. Although the Blair/Thor discussion was big, as was the Thor/me discussion, the two have a common thread.

(1)

If you think I'm not paying attention the the Fink replacement, how is that scummy?

(2)

Since you think it is scummy, do you also think it is scummy that Thor referred to a YYR lynch 5 posts above yours? Seems like you're stretching.

(1)

If you're town and don't already know everybody's alignment, it's fairly important to pay attention to everybody in the game. There were several people that were reading YYR as scum, and Fink not so much. Not paying attention to the replacement reads to me as if you're trying to continue to push for the lynch based off of only what YYR had done, not anything in his slot.

(2)

Thor refers to YYR as the slot

once

since the replacement. Yeah, it shows a slight lack of attention to the game, but I've done that too with a replacement. You, on the other hand, repeatedly referred to the slot as YYR. So, not exactly the same.

[shaddowez]

Unless I'm counting wrong (and I really hope I'm not), Acryon has 3 votes on him, which puts him at L-2.

VOTE: acryon

That makes it L-1. Please don't hammer him until he's come back from his V/LA and has time to respond to the most recent posts.

[shaddowez]

So in my opinion Shaddowez had by far the scummiest jump onto the Acryon wagon. DCLXVI came into the game, read it, and placed a vote on a non-existant wagon that turned out to be pretty damn viable, that doesn't seem scummy to me at all. Thor has been jumping at the bit to get a lynchable wagon going (something I don't actually read as scummy coming from him right now) and has never had much read on Acryon. I have 0 difficulty believing Thor would see Acryon as a viable lynch candidate and a perfectly reasonable compromise. Droog had been catching up on the last several days and saying for a while he needed to reevaluate things, when he came back, he moved his vote based on the other two responses and preferring Acryon to Phil I think. Shaddowez just kind of came and tagged on to a rapidly rising wagon to put it into lynch range.

I can't control when other people vote/post. If you haven't noticed, I tend to post at different times than everybody else. I agreed with Thor's point about not having my vote sitting on a wagon that's not going to happen, so I decided to move it to my next highest scum read. Would it have been less scummy had only one other person voted acryon before I moved my vote? If so, why? If not, would it have been less scummy if I waited until he was at L-1 and used my vote to hammer? Also, if so, why?

wait who is shaddowez

shaddowez is probably also topping my scum lists at the moment
most everyone eles is making fair town impressions on me

You had interacted with me a number of times, and only once in Post 271 did you mention any sort of scum read on me, and that was me out of a group based on gut. Considering the other one was dys and you said you wanted to hear more from both of us, I can only assume that feeling was based on something along the lines of lack of content/participation. If that's the case, I'll ask you to review my signature and the second line of my response to Fink.

As for everyone else giving you town impressions, does that apply to acryon as well? If so, why do you still have your vote on him? If not, do you see him and I being scum partners, and if so please explain why.

Unless I'm counting wrong (and I really hope I'm not), Acryon has 3 votes on him, which puts him at L-2.

VOTE: acryon

That makes it L-1. Please don't hammer him until he's come back from his V/LA and has time to respond to the most recent posts.

Why acryon instead of phil? You have both of them listed as suspects and bother were L-2 when you put that vote down?

A couple of reasons - while I never did a "rating" system, when I first did my reads list I did feel acryon was scummier than Phil. My read on Phil is partly PoE, and based more on his lack of scum hunting and following up on things. My read on acryon is actually based on things he is saying/how he is saying them, along with his interactions with other people. Additionally, I'm still suspicious of Dys (where my vote was before I moved it), and I see Dys/acryon being a more likely team than Dys/Phil. Since Phil and acryon were the two viable wagons, since I moved my vote off Dys I'm going to move it to who I see as her partner.

[shaddowez]

Dys

- I should have said "who I more likely see as her partner". In the line just above where you bolded I said I see you as a more likely team, not outright saying that you are. I have liked what you've been saying lately, but I'll have to do a more complete reread to see if you still look scummy to me or not.

I'd still prefer an acryon lynch over a Phil lynch toDay.

[shaddowez]

Shadow, get your butt in here.

Going to dinner shortly, will be on afterwards.

[shaddowez]

dys

- I'm still thinking scum on her, though possibly not as strongly as before. Based on ISO's, I could see an acryon/dys scum team though.

I still like my Dys vote, but really don't see her being scum with Acryon, who is my next highest scum read.

Since Phil and acryon were the two viable wagons, since I moved my vote off Dys I'm going to move it to who I see as her partner.

Actually, shadow, I'd like you to take me through your thought process on these changes here.
I have my thoughts, but I'd like to hear your's^^

A couple of reasons - while I never did a "rating" system, when I first did my reads list I did feel acryon was scummier than Phil. My read on Phil is partly PoE, and based more on his lack of scum hunting and following up on things. My read on acryon is actually based on things he is saying/how he is saying them, along with his interactions with other people. Additionally, I'm still suspicious of Dys (where my vote was before I moved it), and I see Dys/acryon being a more likely team than Dys/Phil. Since Phil and acryon were the two viable wagons, since I moved my vote off Dys I'm going to move it to who I see as her partner.

Dys

- I should have said "who I more likely see as her partner". In the line just above where you bolded I said I see you as a more likely team, not outright saying that you are. I have liked what you've been saying lately, but I'll have to do a more complete reread to see if you still look scummy to me or not.

I'd still prefer an acryon lynch over a Phil lynch toDay.

That ok, but you're kind of using it as a relevant point. When if you "really don't see us being scum together" it's not really a relevant point, imo.

I'm going to start at the end here and work my way backwards, I believe. While I didn't

need

to move my vote, I was the only vote on you, and I don't believe that anybody else was going to move on to you when both acryon and Phil were at L-2 and there were other people ready to move on to either wagon. Rather than have my vote sit on you, who I was still reading as scum, I decided to move it to one of the other wagons. As I said before, I was willing to move to either as a compromise, but since both were in the same position I moved to the scummier of my reads. Since we

know

that there are two scum alive, and I had a total of three scum reads (you/Phil/acryon), if I was reading you as scum one one of acryon/Phil could also be scum. Even though I was finding it difficult to see you as a scum team with acryon, there was no possible way I saw you as a scum team with Phil. I also didn't really see an acryon/Phil team, although in retrospect I suppose I could have been looking at that harder (null point now). That is why I went from saying that even though I didn't see you as a team in 712, I was comfortable saying that I saw acryon as a possible partner in 811 (clarified wording in 816). Would it have looked more town to you if I moved my vote off of you, a scum read, on to acryon, and just said that I don't see you and Phil as partners?

Now, on to why my scum read lessened on you. The following are all from after my initial reads post. I liked your posts 619 and 621. Everything in it seems genuine, and you're trying to engage people, which is good. I also like the fact that you're willing to take arguments against yourself, even those you don't like, and look at them objectively, relative to yourself and others commenting on them. You have a reads list in 636 in response to Thor, but except for Phil, who we all know is your top scum read, you don't give any explanations. Granted Thor is town reading Phil, so that would be who you need to explain the most about, but it still seems like tunneling. Your jabs on Thor in that post, and in a few of your subsequent posts, made me uneasy, as well as you saying you'd compromise lynch Blair without saying much about her. 707 was also nice, but I wasn't fond of this quote:

I thought it was scummy at first especially the weight he gave it (well that is weird still, but), I don't really see it as a scum point anymore.

You had definitely put in what I considered more effort and less things that I took as scummy, but I wasn't fully convinced yet. That's why in 712 I was still comfortable with my vote, but had less of a scum read on you than in my first read.

Now that acryon has flipped town, I'm actually willing to move you to null/lean town. I still do

not

see a Dys/Phil team, and I definitely still see Phil as scummy. You've been continuing to push and ask questions, and even though it seems you're tunnelling on Phil at least you're giving arguments too, not just saying "sheep me" or "vote Phil, he's scum". I'm not sure who I think Phil's partner would be right now, but that's something I'll look into more.

I'm not sure what the problem is here. If scum wanted to (and weren't already on the wagon) they could have quickhammered. That act would have made it INCREDIBLY obvious that they were scum, however, and I refuse to believe that this hypothetical scum would not have realized this.

Does this mean you do or don't think scum was already on the wagon? Considering there's two scum and four people were on the wagon, what do you think the odds are that neither or only one was on the wagon? This is a very WIFOM-laced post IMO.

Thor

- Considering the flip and everything that's happened since, do you still have a town read on Phil? If so, why, and who but Blair do you think is scummy?

[shaddowez]

I have indicated suspicion of both Blair and DCL in my first post of this day phase - those reads remain unchanged for me as neither player has even shown up yet for me to delve for info or assess in any new way.

Good point - Blair's been around less frequently as of late, but DCL was on earlier. Speaking of which...

DCL

- Reads list you promised?

[shaddowez]

The first thing that I noticed was that you both had interactions with several other people in the beginning, but not each other. In posts 155, 157, 160, and 167 you have a brief back and forth that really provides no content, but provides the illusion of not distancing. You then don't interact for quite some time, including during the wgeurts lynch, which had neither of you on the wagon. His reads list in 382 has you as a null, and is very non-committal. Then, in your reads list in 479, you list him as null/leaning townish, which also seems very contrived and non-committal. Your response to acryon in 492 didn't do much for me, either, though at that point I was already thinking there could be a link.

In 605 and 619 each of you address Fink, and something about the way that each of you responded made me start questioning whether it would make sense as a team to talk to the same person the way you two were, and I was starting to doubt my team read. Your 621 pushes that a bit more, as you could have just let that go. Acryon could have continued to push the issue to try and get some heat on me, but rather than stand by you stepped in. You read him as null in 636 with no info, but you didn't provide content for...well, anyone really...so that's not really anything at all, other than you did downgrade him from leaning townish. Your 687 and 707 present even more chances for you to distance yourself, which you don't do. acryon had also had a lull in posting (it was over the weekend, so he may have been V/LA, I don't remember), which would have been another good time to continue not interacting, as you still hadn't been doing too much. At this point I felt all comments regarding acryon coming from you felt much more sincere and actually scum hunting than I did in the first part of the game, which led me to believe it was unlikely that you and him were a scum team.

Does that answer your question better?

[shaddowez]

Now that acryon has flipped town, I'm actually willing to move you to null/lean town.

What impact did acryon's flip have on your read on me if you didn't see us as likely teamed anyway?

Since we know that there are two scum alive, and I had a total of three scum reads (you/Phil/acryon), if I was reading you as scum one one of acryon/Phil could also be scum. Even though I was finding it difficult to see you as a scum team with acryon, there was no possible way I saw you as a scum team with Phil.

You were still a slight scum read, but if it was two out of the three of you, and it's not Phil and you, if acryon was town and I still think Phil is scum, that town reads you.

and even though it seems you're tunnelling on Phil at least you're giving arguments too, not just saying "sheep me" or "vote Phil, he's scum".

I've been giving arguments way before I ever said "sheep me". Not a change.

That actually wasn't meant to be a comparison of you versus you, I meant it as I find it scummy when people just do that as their entire argument and you havnen't been doing that(it actually hasn't really happened much this game, Thor tunneling on Blair has been the most similar to that I've seen).

[shaddowez]

1. You scum read me to the point of still liking your vote on me at 712.
2. At the same time you really can't see me and acryon as a team. And you really really can't se me and Phil as a team.
If acryon and Phil were your stronger scum reads (apart from me),

(1)

then who then could I be teamed with, and

(2)

why did it make sense to vote me?

I feel like I'm answering the same questions again.

(1)

- First off, seeing something as unlikely (or not really seeing it, however it was phrased), does not mean it's impossible. Now, let's look at my thought process again: I only had a total of three scum reads. Dys, acryon, and Phil. Since we know there are two scum, this gives me three total scum teams to work with:
{Dys, Acryon}, {Dys, Phil}, {Acryon, Phil}. Of those three choices, the one I thought least likely, and almost impossible, was you and Phil. I don't really see a connection between you and anybody else, which is why when acryon flipped town I was willing to move you out of a scum read.

(2)

- I'm not sure I exactly understand what you're asking here. I explained in my reads list is 586 and in my response to you in 883 why I was voting for you. If you're asking specifically about 712, that doesn't make sense since I said I was going to move my vote, which I did in 713. I also already admitted I should have been looking closer at the possible acryon/Phil scum team but I didn't, though that point is completely moot now.

@ Shaddowez: What do you think is the strongest reason you scumread Phil? Do you disagree with any of the arguments I've made?

At this point, I think my strongest reason is his....trying to figure out the best way to word this....lack of follow through? He makes posts that allude to him doing some form of scum hunting, or explaining, or reasoning, but then never really does them. Examples:

455 - He talks about looking at posts from Dys, looks at one post then never looks at the others
558 - Says he's going to catch up on things that aren't Dys, responds to two people in his next post, and then his very next post after that is 635 where he says he has nothing to add.
672 - Is waiting on DCL to give us any more info
787 - Opposed to the lynch, but rather than give any info says" but I'm guessing my opinion doesn't count at the moment."
835 - Says he's going to look at people that moved onto acryon's wagon, then only closely looks at Fink until questioned about it

As for your arguments against Phil, I think most of them hold water, especially him misrepresenting you and being dodgy about his answers about the wagon analysis. I do think that your push about Phil's thoughts on opinion changes is a bit of a stretch, especially considering he'd have to think every single person that changed their mind throughout the course of a game would be scummy if that were true.

On a related note of unfulfilled promises:

DCL

- Second night in a row you've promised posting, and second night in a row you've let us down. What's going on here?

Everybody

- What are your thoughts on the Blair replace? Whoever takes over that slot is going to have to try and figure out her mentality with regards to the whole Thor debate, which was a large part of her content.

[shaddowez]

@Shaddowez: Why didn't you see a Phil/Acryon scum team. Obviously that isn't the scum team, but at the time, I thought it was a reasonable explaination (in fact, I thought it was the most reasonable explaination) for both of their behavior as the wagons developed on them. You dismissed it almost out of hand. Why?

It's not that I didn't

see

an acryon/Phil scum team, it's that I never looked for one in the first place. I think I mentioned in one of my replies to Dys, and I'm still not sure why I never looked for one. The best I can think is that since I had Dys as my first scum read, I was more intent on looking for partnerships with her rather than her as town and other people as a scum team - call it confbias.

You've now said you couldn't see me on a team with Acryon, Phil or anyone else.

Now you're just twisting my words to fit your agenda.

No other thoughts than it kind of sucks and I hope we get a replacement soon that is able to catch up properly. And your's?

I don't think replacing in general is alignment indicative. The issue I have with this specific replace is that Blair and Thor had such a convoluted argument that I don't think a replacement is ever going to be able to do justice to the slot.

Dys

- You're focusing on Phil not answering questions. What are your thoughts on DCL continuing to promise reads and vanishing?

[shaddowez]

Also, I'll be around intermittently tonight, but then V/LA for the weekend.

@MOD

- I'll be V/LA until Monday, 10/13

[shaddowez]

Phil

- I like the fact that you finished your thoughts, but it's easy to do something after being called out on it and saying "hey, doesn't that make me look town now?". I did also like the content in it, so I'm going to hold off on voting you right now, but you're still definitely scummy to me.

That being said, using his inactivity as a case for Phil being scum is terrible. First off, it starts an entire WIFOM argument with the way it was presented. "If he says scum would do it, then he does it, he's scummy, but would he think we'd think he was scummy if he did it", and then nobody messes with a Sicilian and somebody dies.
Princess Bride jokes aside, it's just a weak and terrible argument. Gameplay aside, this is a game and things happen IRL, and if you can't post for some period of time, you can't post. I've said in other games (if not here, can't remember), to me it's not post count, but content.

As for the vacant slots, this stinks However, it doesn't make me feel very good about the DCL/Bins/Fokem slot. I can't say anything about Fokem (he had a total of 3 posts on site, all /ins), but I wasn't liking Bins. Her posts were fluff and lacked anything to go off at all. DCL came in and provided a nice entrance. He then began to tunnel on acryon, and kept promising reads that he never gave.

I don't want to vote the slot, because I really dislike not giving replacements a chance first, but at this point pretend my vote is on DCL's slot.

[shaddowez]

Hey Dys - when you come back, let me know your thoughts on the Droog vs. Fink argument. If I remember correctly, you had a townread on Droog, I know you have a scum read on Phil, and the hierarchy looks like this:

Droog --> Fink --> Phil

[shaddowez]

By hierarchy, I mean who they're pushing the hardest for lynches right now

[shaddowez]

So, at this point we have less than a week to deadline (unless it's extended due to the empty slot), and the votes are all over the place. At this point I'm willing to vote the Bins/DCL slot (partially for scum read, partially for a PL to get rid of a currently useless slot), or Phil, for reasons already explained.

Bob

- Who, other than Thor, are your current scum reads?

Thor

- Who, other than Blair/Bob, are your current scum reads?

Dys

- Come back to us!

Droog

- At this point, do you think that it's more likely for Bob to be scum than Fink, or do you just think it more likely for a Bob lynch than a Fink lynch?

[shaddowez]

Now I'm coming to think of it, I just had an idea with regards to scum daytalk and replacing into slots. I will take a look back when I have time (which may well be never) but that seems like it might be worth looking into.

If you think you may not have time to explain, would you mind at least posting an outline of your thoughts?

[shaddowez]

what are you thoughts on thor vs me?

So far it has a similar feel to me that the Blair vs Thor fight did (town v town). You seem to have more experience with Thor than anybody else has had, so you're calling out a lot of points that hadn't really been brought up yet, giving me a town vibe, although there are some things that are questionable (mainly the fear mongering section, I'll explain after). Thor's responses seem to be direct and genuine, so even the items you're calling out aren't enough to make me think he's scum.

As for the fear mongering discussion: Your defense to Thor accusing you of fear mongering is terrible - it doesn't matter if the person you're accusing of something is actually guilty or not. Fear mongering is trying to use scare tactics to convince people of your cause, whether or not it's right. You seem to be trying to deflect Thor calling you out on that by telling him it's only fear mongering if he's what you're accusing him of being.

[shaddowez]

Sorry for the absence, life got busier than expected. Will be back Sunday night

[shaddowez]

uhm

In RVS, thor did everything in his power to keep the pressure low in his interactions with johnny, whom he didn't have a clear read on, while his interactions with literally everyone else were aimed at blandly generating responses. Even his push on johnny was phrased as a suggestion to cheetory so johnny wouldn't have to defend himself.

Thor barely addressed anyone outside of Cheetory and Blair before the end of D1. How do his interactions with Johnny make any more of a connection than his interactions with anybody else?

Fast lunches would've stopped this game from stalling

I agree with this wholeheartedly...not saying we should be quicklynching people, but waiting until almost deadline every time is making this game drag.

Bob seems to be tunneling on Thor, which is something that Blair may have been doing but I saw it more as a discussion with her. I'm still thinking that's a town slot, though many of Bob's posts have me questioning that. I think I'm still more inclined for a Phil lynch than a Bob lynch right now, but I don't want there to be a no lynch either (even with no NK, that just stalls the game out even more). I'll place my vote back on Phil, but will hammer Bob tomorrow night if it hasn't been done already, or if other things haven't changed.

VOTE: Phil

Also, the hesitation to have Bob at L-1 and then the revote when somebody else gave the okay, along with the following quote, makes me wonder if there's the possibility of a Phil/Bob team.

So let's talk about the Bob/Blair slot. The TL;DR here is that I was unconvinced that Blair was scum, but basically every post that Bob makes makes me more and more convinced that the slot is in fact scum and Blair just had me completely fooled.

[shaddowez]

@Shaddowez: Why do you prefer Phil over Bob? I don't mean why is Phil scummy, I mean why didn't you want to vote for Bob given that he looked like the wagon for the day?

I hadn't done a VC myself, and was using Phil and Droog's posts (1114 - 1116) as reference, which implied that Bob was at L-1. I didn't want to hammer at that point, which upon review of my post I didn't make clear at the time.

What more specifically do you want to know about the Phil vs. Bob thing?

Bert

- As I was one of the strongest proponents for Scum-Dys early on, I'm interesting in hearing why you have her listed at scum.

@Droog: What's weird about Dys' post specifically?

She says she is not willing to entertain the wagon
"Yeah, no"

Then joins it

The only thing I could

possibly

see happening here is because of the spelling/grammar issue in the post, she misread it as "are you unwilling"....to be honest, I did the first time around. If she didn't do that, then I've got nothing.

@Everyone: Is it just me, or did the Bob wagon really move faster than the Phil wagon? Is there anything worth reading into this or am I being paranoid? I'd love it if several people could mention their thoughts on this.

I think the Bob wagon started closer to deadline, and at least one person (Dys) joined it because it seemed a more likely lynch than Phil's. There was also more content in a more concentrated amount of time from Bob, which seems to make people form opinions quicker, especially since it gives them more to base those opinions off of. I'm not saying it means nothing at all, but I don't know how much to actually make of it.

I vote that next day we try to get our votes organized earlier instead of sitting around not posting for 2 days.

I'm all for this....however (/ducks) I'm going to be very limited for the next week or so. I'll have mostly regular access, but limited hours, over the next few days, then have to be V/LA for a few days. Short version, I won't be around much for the beginning of the next Day phase.

[shaddowez]

@Thor: So why'd you vote for Shaddowez?

Because I think he is an appropriate mix of scum and null to explore/lynch today.

I'm actually interested in what made you change your read of me, considering you had a town read on me in 955. The best guess I have is that I've been focusing on your "town reads", and you're trying to divert attention from the Phil wagon on to me.

By my accounting we have, what, three more lynches to manage to hit at least one scum with?
Why not start with a guy I have no real read on of late?

You're sounding like Droog from D2. Him and Dys have a couple posts starting in 98 about mislynches, and we see how well that's worked out so far.

From my perspective, i think scum Bob (and maybe Bert) moved to give a solid counter offer to the Bob lynch by trying to push through the Phil lynch.
That said, i am coming from a basic perspective of Bob=scum and Phil=town.

Now that Bob flipped town, what do you think about Phil? He's been wagoned at least twice, with that wagon disbanding (or at least not completing) each time. Don't you think it even a bit possible that his partner would be doing the best they can to put the pressure on another wagon instead? Both times, town was lynched (acryon and Bob).

I agree with Fink's read on Bert, and haven't liked the slot from the get-go. Nobody seemed to really agree with me about Bins, and what DCL did for the slot in the beginning degraded quickly. I'm willing to vote that slot if need be, but I'm more interested to see what happens with another Phil wagon.

VOTE: Phil

[shaddowez]

I'm actually interested in what made you change your read of me, considering you had a town read on me in 955. The best guess I have is that I've been focusing on your "town reads", and you're trying to divert attention from the Phil wagon on to me.

Do you think you've managed to do enough to justify me keeping a town read from around 300 posts ago?

I suppose that's a question about how you scum hunt. Are you looking for people that don't "do enough to justify" a town read, or do you look for people that actually do scummy things? If you're looking at activity, why isn't Dys on your list of scum reads? Actually, how about you provide a list of scum reads. Since the last read you gave on me is from 300 posts ago, I'm sure some others have changed as well.

You're sounding like Droog from D2. Him and Dys have a couple posts starting in 98 about mislynches, and we see how well that's worked out so far.

I think it has worked out okay, frankly, it's not like we've lost people I've town read.
Do you think it's not working out okay?

In a decreasing pool starting with ten people, I would have rather seen at least one scum lynched than three townies; so no, I don't really think it's working okay. The more that town does to mislynch people, the less work scum have to do to actually cause mislynches.

I'm actually leaning town on Shadow - if he's scum he's flying totally under my radar.

Ooooh, and such an epic read to reverse on.

It's still a reversal, no matter how strong it was.

[shaddowez]

Why is this a big deal? You keep bringing up the hypothetical example of one scum not letting "Phil" get lynched. When I came in the game, a Phil counterwagon started and almost went through. Furthermore, it got to L-1 more quickly than Bob's did, by a mile.

How do I

keep

bringing it up? Also, the keyword in your post is

almost

. It did catch up, but then Bob's (town) went through. I'm not saying that Fink is necessarily scum for being the hammer on Bob's wagon, but since anybody from either wagon could have hopped on to the other one, the fact that nobody from Bob's moved over to Phil and that Bob ended up being town warrants some looking into.

Also, you never answered my question from 1182.

That's kind of an empty statement though - you're not dinging the method, you're dinging the result.
Yes, sure, a town lynch is bad - that said, the method has been fine and we are limiting the pool of potential scumspects with each move. Beyond that we can start looking at who is defending or pushing whom and draw ideas from that about possible teams.

Do you have some alternate method to consider, or are you just wanting to be seen bemoaning the town lynches?

There are two points to be made about this. First is that results are often based on the methods used to acquire them (and vice versa), so it is generally futile to attack one without expectation of some backlash to the other, which is something I didn't do. Secondly, there was no "method" that I was attacking anyway. What my comment was aimed at was the notion that it is okay to mislynch townies, as we have enough days left to do so while still winning the game. I understand that, unless you're in an extreeeeeeemely lucky game, townies are going to be mislynched, I don't think it's okay to look at it like "Well, I don't care how many townies get lynched between now and then, as long as we eventually catch scum". That shows a lack of desire to actually find scum in any manner other than PoE.

If I reverse a weak read that is hardly a shocking or strange thing. that's actually pretty normal. I just lynched a scum read and they flipped town - oddly that makes me go back and reconsider things in a new light. I submit it would be strange if all my reads remained rock solid, rather than having some shift. Also, you *presented* that shift like it was surprising or strange, how do you remotely justify that? A read change is not strange - it is the normal state of affairs. I did a much bigger one to Dyx back a few days going from 'scum' to 'solid town' and you didn't even bat an eye when I proclaimed that, so why does this one bother you so much?

be specific.
Please.
I'd love to hear this.

Reversing a read is absolutely fine, I never said there was a problem with doing that specifically. I asked why you reversed your read on me, primarily because you did so with no reasoning whatsoever and just placed a vote. I would question that no matter who you placed it on, not just me. As everybody generally reads things other people post differently, having reasons actually helps people understand why you think that person may be scummy. The primary reason that I can think of to place a naked vote is because you don't actually have reasons for that read, you just want other people to try and read into the fact that you're voting somebody.

{More to come later, work calls....}

[shaddowez]

VOTE: Thor

Yeah. I'm not about to move my vote.

Bai. Later.

Dys, I'm surprised to see a naked vote from you. I know you haven't liked Thor, but considering how much steam there was on the Phil wagon yesterDay, why would you vote Thor over Phil toDay?

Shadow, your case against Dys is being too verbose without the content to match it, and also...not being serious enough and instead injecting weird emotion? I don't quite follow.

Can you please specify where you're talking about? I don't recall ever using emotion in my arguments, but I could have and just don't recall doing it. Also, are you talking about my scum case on Dys, or the fact that I'm now town reading her?

Dys Picking Thor over Phil doesn't make sense either given Day 3 stances.

Agreed.

[shaddowez]

@Mod

- I'll be V/LA through 10/28

[shaddowez]

I'm back, and there's way too many wall posts for me to actually digest all the information and follow it, but I'll do my best. On that note, I apologize if I ask any questions/make comments about things that have already been addressed that I missed. I'm also going to break this into multiple posts so as to not just wall.

At least one of Bert/Phil/Droog must be town by simple mathematics, so it bothers me that they all like to accuse people that are scumhunting of being scum for not scumhunting, especially while being useless themselves.

But I don't believe they can all be town.

Which one of the three is towniest to you, and why? Personally, I've liked Phil's posting the most of any recently, but the continuing near-miss wagon still has me skeptical. I haven't read Droog as scummy yet, but I also know that his are a lot of the posts I had to just skim through tonight in order to not go insane.

what is it about the philamonn slot that has attracted sly near lynch wagons two days in a row?

fink will resent the word sly so:

why has philamon been almost lynched two days in a row as an option for people who didn't like the current lyrch?
thor's right -- something's off there

That was an intentional dig at Fink, and considering you made the comment and rephrased it in the same post, you know it was. Why, as town, would you do something that sheds a poor light on yourself?

Also, it was me that made that case about Phil's wagon, I don't recall Thor doing it as well.

till right now im more interested in everyone else who has gotten by without being on these lynches
i think thor is town and im starting to reverse my position on you (toward town)

I'm not sure I understand this - are you thinking it more likely that scum is sitting back and letting town just lynch itself? If that's the case, who do you think is most probable for that to be?

A replacement search for dyslexicon has been going on for a while.

even when dys was active
thor was the only person paying her much attention
((though philammon might have had a case on her?
dont quite remember because my point is that
i cant remember her getting any flak
))

Dys and I had quite a few interactions...not sure if that's what you were thinking of. I had her as a town read after the acryon flip though.

[shaddowez]

That's a really flimsy reason to move your vote off me.

I love how Bert's "scumhunting" consists of lurking and criticizing people for not finding him scummy enough by the way.

And completely ignoring me pretty much every time I've addressed him, that's part of it too.

1) You keep bringing up that typo (which was

not

part of any case with anything I thought worth replying to that I haven't already. The only reason I'm bringing it up is because you're equating my finding you stupid for finding me scummy for a typo with me finding you scummy for ADDING PHIL TO A LIST OF PEOPLE AND DOING ANALYSIS BASED ON IT when he didn't belong on that list. I don't think that was a typo. I do think you're working hard to discredit me by comparing it to your own earlier argument which I ridiculed.

2) I never claimed you changed my read on Phil. You made me think you weren't scumbuddies with Phil, and given the two of you, that pushed me into thinking you were the more likely to be scum. I've said it before, I don't understand why you're acting like this is such a shift. It isn't.

3) As you pointed out, you never had a real case on me, and I don't know why YYR asked Cheetory a useless question, but I think it's sufficient reason to tunnel someone all game given all the far far scummier things everyone has done since then. And I'm not going to engage in a wall war and let you get everyone skimming over this more than you already are.

Fink makes some really good points here, especially his last one.

You want a short, to the point Droog case, how about this:

The person once so concerned for the readability of the thread, who pointed out how giant wall arguements make people skim and null-read both parties resorts to just such a tactic, along with blatantly making things up to discredit the person suspecting him as soon as he gets a vote.

Almost as if he were more worried about avoiding being lynched at any cost, rather than scumhunting, maintaining thread readability, or finding the truth.

I feel like a hypocrite here since I'm making wall-ish posts, but I don't know how else to do it for a 4ish day catch up. You went from fairly succinct posts, to ridiculously long, massive quote blocks. You did have a couple posts complaining about walls as well. It does seem like you're trying to obfuscate things now that there's more scrutiny on you.

thor makes a lot of sense as scum if fink is scum
they play off each other in an interesting way
but not much sense otherwise

i want to look at the dys slot when we get a good replacement
dys never did anything that especially convinced me of town motive

same goes for shaddowez

im liking your slot because i liked dcl before fink started making cases on it
have no faith in fink's scumhunting rn whether town or scum

philammon is pretty town in my eyes

i could see any of fink/shaddowez/dys
and thor if it's fink

but i want to take a breather on fink

If Fink is your strongest scum read, why would you want to "take a breather", especially if that's the only slot you've also got a possible team set up with. Also, since there's definitely only two scum left, and you have more than that listed as scum, who is most likely to be town out of that list?

[shaddowez]

@Shaddowez.

Kinda asked you some questions here;
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p6327703

So you did.

Did you think I had a strong read on you?

No, actually the way I took it was that you were moving me into a town read more for liking some of my posts rather than having done anything extremely townie. I'm not entirely sure how that's relevant though, since reversing any read should have some explanation behind it. Let me ask you to look at it the other way:

Assume somebody ("X"), in a post or a reads list, mentions that they think somebody else ("Y") may be scum, but doesn't give a solid reason. "Y" doesn't do much to indicate they're scum, but then for some reason a wagon forms on them. "X" then says they're not going to vote "Y" because they're town. Wouldn't that look a bit odd to you? Why is it different the other way around?

So now that my read has been explained, do you have any thoughts on that?

Not really. You're grasping at straws to build a case, but you're wasting your energy. Unless, of course, you just want to use up all of our mislynches as a good strategy.

[shaddowez]

No, actually the way I took it was that you were moving me into a town read more for liking some of my posts rather than having done anything extremely townie.

How did you reach this conclusion?

Probably mild points for Shaddow too, though I dislike most of his conclusions and reasoning.

I'm actually leaning town on Shadow - if he's scum he's flying totally under my radar.

Mostly the way I interpreted those quotes.

Assume somebody ("X"), in a post or a reads list, mentions that they think somebody else ("Y") may be scum, but doesn't give a solid reason. "Y" doesn't do much to indicate they're scum, but then for some reason a wagon forms on them. "X" then says they're not going to vote "Y" because they're town. Wouldn't that look a bit odd to you? Why is it different the other way around?

Depends how much time passes between the two moments and

all I would do would be to ask them why the read changed

, I wouldn't be shocked it changed unless...basically nothing happened between the two points or they were very close together in time.

I'm actually interested in what made you change your read of me, considering you had a town read on me in 955. The best guess I have is that I've been focusing on your "town reads", and you're trying to divert attention from the Phil wagon on to me.

I added in a

guess

, but didn't feel strongly enough about it to try and make a case or call you scum. How is that much different than what you're saying you would do?

Not really. You're grasping at straws to build a case, but you're wasting your energy. Unless, of course, you just want to use up all of our mislynches as a good strategy.

I want to use all of our lynches on people I can't read, yeah.

What straws do you think I'm grasping at, I thought I was pretty open about the meaning behind my case. There's no grasp there, it's just a 'you lurk, you hard read, you dead'. It's sort of a perfect case, in a way.

So just to be clear, what you're saying is just because you can't read me, you think I'm scum?

I'm going to be really annoyed if Thor turns out to be scum. It will have meant that people kept independently catching him, but making terrible cases that none of the rest of us could get behind.

That said, I don't like your case on Thor, Shaddowez. What do you think of Bert? What do you think of Droog?

I'm okay with you not liking it, because I'm not making a case on Thor? He voted me, I addressed that vote, we've been having a discussion - I still don't think he's scum, I'm just trying to figure out his thoughts and motivations.

I don't like Bert. At all. I've never liked the slot, and have said something similar a few times. I'm tired of that slot just coming in, making a few useless posts (or in the case of DCL, making a bunch of posts and then not following through), and not interacting much with the game. As a matter of fact,
VOTE: Bert

I'm still unsure about Droog, though I'm leaning scum on him. You make some compelling arguments, but then again he's making some decent ones as well. He still hasn't done anything inherently scummy, but his defense of Phil, along with the fact it seems impossible to actually lynch Phil, give me some pause.

[shaddowez]

Fink and droog - I'll get to your questions, but probably not until the next Day as I won't have time before tomorrow night.

Prod dodge...tortillas with flour.

Happy H'ween everyone.

Deadline is tomorrow night, you haven't posted anything useful in forever, and you're prod dodging? Wow

[shaddowez]

Sorry, had my deadlines mixed up. Still, not happy with another dodge from this slot

[shaddowez]

Sorry for needing the prod guys, life happened and time disappeared. I'll be posting tonight, I promise (soon, hopefully)!

[shaddowez]

I know I'm probably missing a bunch here, but just haven't had time to catch up. I'm going to address the Droog/Fink question here...if anybody has any particular questions or posts they'd like to point out, feel free and hopefully I'll be able to read and post more tomorrow.

Before that, I came across this in ISO and must have missed it earlier, my apologies:

Droog - At this point, do you think that it's more likely for Bob to be scum than Fink, or do you just think it more likely for a Bob lynch than a Fink lynch?

@Shaddowez: Droog is currently voting me, and was when you asked this. Why are you treating him as if he's voting for Bob? Why did you phrase the question this way?

I wasn't intending to make it sound like he was voting Bob. He had been hard pressing you (as evidenced by his vote on you), but then started discussing Bob with Thor in 1005 and 1018. I had asked the question since he had made a comment about moving to vote Bob with Thor.

Back to now:

Spoiler: Things I like about Finks case on droog

The initial reason for Fink's vote on Droog in D5 (1268) is a bit weak. It's a whole lot of WIFOM spec about how droog intentionally made a mistake to set up Fink for falling into it. The biggest problem I see with that is if droog did to that and it ever came up (which it did), if Fink flips town it's a speedlynch on droog.
1298 is a good summary of how I felt about the typo incident. I don't agree with the wagon case either, but it definitely happened from both contenders.
I really like 1308 and 1312. They are succinct, and directly address the issues that Fink has with droog. I agree with most of what Fink is saying in these posts as well, especially

1) You keep bringing up that typo (which was not part of any case with anything I thought worth replying to that I haven't already.

Even though each of them made mistakes, droog

keeps

bringing up the typo, which out of the two weak cases is the weaker one.

The person once so concerned for the readability of the thread, who pointed out how giant wall arguements make people skim and null-read both parties resorts to just such a tactic, along with blatantly making things up to discredit the person suspecting him as soon as he gets a vote.

Almost as if he were more worried about avoiding being lynched at any cost, rather than scumhunting, maintaining thread readability, or finding the truth.

I think I addressed this already, wall posts are evil.

I was going to spoiler droog too, but don't think I need to. Doing the ISO, I realized there's less I like about droog's case against Fink than I thought, the posts I like are just his defenses to Fink's argument. I'm not sure what that means, as it goes back to the idea that droog isn't actually scum hunting, but just trying to create chatter.

I don't like the tone of 1317, but it reads to me as genuine frustration. That's not alignment indicative necessarily, but does seem to lead to the genuinity of the issue in the post.
1360 is another post that makes some good points against Fink's case.

The reason I don't like droog's read on Phil is that the read reversed so drastically, and he doesn't give a very compelling case about why he actually thinks Phil is town. In most of the explanations he gives, he says that Phil could still be scum based on it, or null. Also, since Phil has been

impossible

to lynch, and you're advocating so strongly for him makes me wonder what the dynamic is between the two of you. It doesn't quite read as town-town to me, but I'm not sure which of the other setups I think it would be right now.

[shaddowez]

Not_Mafia (and everybody else) - Sorry for needing another prod. Work's been crazy hectic, and I haven't had time to keep up with any of my games. I'm around tonight and going to start reading through now.

[shaddowez]

what reads of droog's have been compelling? i may be foolish, but his read progressions dont seem like scum blending in

on a side note, phil's stances have been eye turning sicne i came into the game. so i cna agree with you somewhat on phil, i guess? I just wish you would quit saying Phil is impossible to lynch. He's not. He won't be tomorrow or today or any day.

I realize Bert is dead now, but still felt these questions needed addressing. I don't actually think any of droog's cases have been very compelling. I'm not exactly sure what he was looking for here, so can't really expound any more than that. As for the Phil wagon, I'm pretty sure that another not-Phil lynch just strengthens my argument. Although, I'm pretty sure I only said it once or twice, not as many times as Bert made it sound in this post.

droog (so many people townread him

Who's so many people? I'm pretty sure Bert was the only person outright saying they were townreading droog, unless I missed something.

VOTE: Phil

Why? Still not convinced he's town, no scum have flipped, and he's survived another day somehow.

Slick hasn't done anything to change my read on the Dys slot, so there's no way I'm voting for him or Thor right now. I'm still reading Fink as mostly town as well, so my compromise lynch at this point would be Droog. (Yes, partly PoE as evidenced by this, but his posts and arguments are also just terrible if he's town)

[shaddowez]

Mod - I will be V/LA over the weekend (until 11/10)

[shaddowez]

I'm sorry my activity hasn't been up to par with the rest of you - my posting hours don't allow for it quite as well, and the delays don't make for as good a back and forth. That being said, I feel like I've addressed (or at least tried) anything directed at me. If any of you feel this isn't the case, let me know what you think I need to address and I will.

I guess my current stance is this - only you and I have expressed desire to lynch droog as any sort of serious statement.

You're right - I'd prefer to see a Phil lynch, though Droog is working his way up. However, I did say I'd be willing to vote Droog in 1570

Let's all talk Shaddowez, that's he didn't post that much, but he's had a few different interactions. It'll give him something to talk about when he gets back. Because whether we end up lynching him or not, we need to get him engaged here.

I'm pretty much done for the night I think, but I'll post something tomorrow.

Am I missing something, or did this not actually happen?

but do you want me to post clear reads
that is a thing im willing to do

I'd like to see this, with maybe a line or two about why exactly you have each read. I doubt I'll get to it tonight, but I plan on doing another reads list myself tomorrow night.

i just realized how bad this looks
thor lists everything but fink
with 2 scum left
and says 1-2 scum may be in that group
he is saying anyone could be scum

he functionally said NOTHING

VOTE: vote: thor

He didn't say

nothing

, he just said Fink's the only person he finds townish, but back-asswards. I'm not sure what in that particular set of posts makes him look back enough to warrant a vote (I've seen that you give further arguments later on, but this is in response to posts at the time)

I'm contemplating voting Droog and putting him at L-1, but want to hear more from him first.

Droog

- In addition to responding to my above, please also tell me who you think is most likely to be Thor's partner should he be scum. Everyone else seems to have an opinion on what the team could look like, but I don't recall seeing one from you.

[shaddowez]

I'm contemplating voting Droog and putting him at L-1, but want to hear more from him first.

please tell me what you think oof 1537 and 1597

I'm not exactly sure what you want me to comment on regarding these two posts, unless it's Thor's belief that I'm scum? If he wants to waste his time and the last mislynch we have available (which I don't want to have to use at all) trying to get a policy lynch on what he considers a "lurker" rather than finding actual scum, that's on him. To be honest, that mentality is becoming consistent in his play, and is beginning to drop my town read on him.

As for his last line in 1597, I'm guessing he hadn't been paying attention to people's votes and was only going by VC. In my mind, you're generally saying who you want lynched when you place a vote on somebody, which a number of us had.

[shaddowez]

Hey ArcAngel, thanks for replacing in, and good luck reading.

@Mod

Meant to post yesterday but forgot - I will be V/LA until 11/16, my son's second birthday party is this weekend.

[shaddowez]

Got back later than expected, will read up tonight and post, I promise!

[shaddowez]

dont worry droog..i am super town.. we have time and i wanted to drag it till the end.

dragging day phase always help town.

.

I have to ask if you've finished reading this game yet? We've gone to deadline almost every single Day phase, and haven't gotten a single scum kill yet. The only scum kill was from Cheetory's vengeful role. Please explain how dragging the day phases helps town, specificially in reference to this game?

Your lack of willingness to consider him as scum, at this stage, is scummy.

ArcAngel is also reading me as town right now, based on 1378. Why does that make droog seem scummy, but not him?

Even if you want to take the no hammer as a read, why couldn't it be droog/Shaddow? Which is actually what I'm currently believing myself.

This is setting up for what can almost be nothing but a WIFOM answer.

I'm feeling a little better about the slot with ArcAngel's posts, so I'm going to unvote for now
UNVOTE:

I was contemplating putting droog at L-1 because I haven't liked his play, but his latest interactions with Thor are feeling off to me. The persistent push on droog and circular arguments are making me think that Thor/Fink is a possible scum team, but that would mean that my reads have been off all game.

[shaddowez]

I rest my case.

Are you just completely ignoring everybody's questions now?

[shaddowez]

Shadow, get your butt in here.

Going to dinner shortly, will be on afterwards.

I summon thee, shadow!

*poof, appears* Hello! But later!


lol, how is this not textbook active lurking?

Please, explain how once instance from over a month ago qualifies, especially when you decide to not look at any of the surrounding points. First, my response, while two posts later was an hour later. Secondly, 883, the very next post, was from me, as promised. Care to misrep me more?

this much i am quite sure that there is one scum between Thor and droog. and if thor is town..it is Droog and Shaddowez and if the any of the droog or shaddowez is town. Thor and fink is scum.

Still not answering questions I see. That's very townish behavior [/sarcasm]

[shaddowez]

So, at the risk of this looking like an OMGUS vote, I'm going to do this anyway:

VOTE: Thor

He seemed to be making sense most of the game, but now that it's getting down to the wire and there are less other people to pay attention to, he's blatantly not working with the rest of town. He's also discussed lylo a couple of times, making it sound like he knows we're going to mislynch and end up there. I don't like it.

[shaddowez]

Thor, you seem convinced that Droog's town, and your best argument against me is PoE, yet you're voting me instead of him. Why?

Oh, and in case you miss the question directed at you, as you seem to be doing more and more of late:

Thor, you seem convinced that Droog's town, and your best argument against me is PoE, yet you're voting me instead of him. Why?

Green Crayons

, have you finished more of your read through yet, and what are your thoughts if so?

[shaddowez]

@Mod

- Typical weekend V/LA until 11/23

[shaddowez]

@Shaddow - I seem convinced he's "scum" I presume you mean.
I also seem pretty sold on you being scum, last I checked.
I'd vote either of you - I'm currently voting you because I think Green is a little more sold on you being scum than Droog being scum, and my other wagon mate is being replaced so who knows where that is going - if something changes I'd move in a heartbeat. But at the moment you are my sweet and only love.

I did mean "scum", thank you. That's what I get for posting when exhausted. You make me feel so special, really.

GC

- Admittedly, I don't have a very solid read on who Thor's partner could be. My best read is Fink's slot, and that's mostly based on how the two of them were interacting, especially concerning droog. The other slot I haven't liked most of the game is AA, though she is doing a much better job of making me think the slot is town than Phil was. You said you were reanalyzing your want to lynch order - what's it at now?

droog

- I'm not sure what you're getting at in 1860. Are you trying to say you think we're going to mislynch toDay?

[shaddowez]

Ah, that makes a bit more sense.

[shaddowez]

Wow, I did not expect to come back to two lynches. Before getting into game theory, I'd like to thank you guys for actually acknowledging my time restrictions and the fact most of the game happens during my non-posting hours.

Alright, on to game:

I didn't like the Phil slot (as evidenced by my ISO), but apparently I was wrong about it. Here are the interactions regarding that slot recently that pique my interest:

I'm not calling you scum in any way at all, in fact I'm calling your slot town - what are you talking about?

Now confirmed scum, Thor was telling AA9 that he was reading the slot as town, which we know was true based on AA9's flip.

OK so as I've said before, scumteam is most definitely thor + AA9. Can't be anyone else. Let's do this.

VOTE: Thor

L-1.

Cool, think we hit scum, one more to go. Last scum would be AA9 if I get killed tonight

I'm not sure what it is about these two posts, but the certainty gives me a weird vibe. It would be brazen to rush into a town lynch, but after hitting scum gives credibility. That's an entire WIFOM argument, though, so I'm just sticking with I don't like them.

I prefer looking at the current situation rather than bringing up the past

I partially agree with this. As a replacement, you obviously don't know why the previous slot holder(s) said what they did or know what they were thinking. That being said, those interactions did happen, and we have to use them in determining what slots are scummy and what slots are town. Since droog is currently my highest townread, and Fink was his largest antagonist besides Thor, I'm going to have to go with my gut and place my vote there.

VOTE: Riddle

[shaddowez]

Shadow, why me over GC? Is it just 'gut'?

Not entirely. If I'm looking purely at you vs GC, GC hasn't done anything in particular to make me think he's scummy, and would be more of a PoE vote (which, like I said I'm going to reread droog if I'm wrong, I really don't like PoE votes that much). On the other hand, your pseudo-push of Thor along with your strongarm push of AA9 doesn't sit well with me.

Looking at previous players, I wasn't liking Fink towards then end of his time in the slot. I was town reading Dys after scum reading her hard early game, and Slick didn't really do anything one way or the other to change my view of the slot.

[shaddowez]

If you actually flip town and it's between GC and droog, I will most likely be voting GC. However, I refuse to say that for certain until I reread and am more confident in my read.

[shaddowez]

Same here - kinda forgot about the Holiday thing last time I posted. Hope everyone that celebrates had a Happy Thanksgiving, and a great feast!

[shaddowez]

Sorry for the lack of activity - holidays plus work have had me swamped. I'll be back later with actual content.

[shaddowez]

No idea. The question is purely speculative, and any sort of educated guess - which I wouldn't really credit anyways - would require knowing how Johnny plays as town and as scum, which I don't. Would scum mention two buddies in a list of three reads? Maybe, maybe not. Would scum be more likely to list a first scum buddy as town (Riddle) or scum (me) and then list the second scum buddy (Thor) as scum-because-I-know-his-play? No idea.

I would agree with this. We only know the flip of one out of the three. Considering that was indeed a scum flip, it seems risky to post more than one since there could easily be a chain lynch. This was especially the case in early game, when we had more mislynches as people were pointing out. On the other hand, doing so could divert attention from the third partner if one of them were found out. Without knowing how Johnny plays/thinks, this is an endless WIFOM argument that could really go either way.

wgeurts was an easy mislynch for scum. Two scum on the D2 wagon against an easy target does not surprise me.

Coming from your POV, I have to take this answer with a grain of salt, considering you were the only one still alive

not

on the wagon. Based on pure statistics, it would make sense there were two scum on the wagon, but we can't go purely by that. I'd also be willing to say that since it was such an easy lynch, and there were at least four townies on the wagon (assuming both scum were), it's not a far stretch of the imagination that 5 townies were, and only one scum.

droog

- What are you trying to garner from these questions? There's a lot of WIFOM and speculation involved, which isn't really going to get anywhere as far as I can see.

[shaddowez]

droog, why have you just faded into the background?

[shaddowez]

So, we seem to have a problem here. droog, for some reason, is being indecisive and not placing a vote on anybody. As we need three out of four votes on any given person, unless droog becomes the lynch candidate for the day (highly unlikely), we're at a standstill. In case the problem is he doesn't want to hammer and be the final vote on anybody right now, I will

UNVOTE:

Once droog has made up his mind, or there's something to swing my vote to somebody else, I'll place my vote again.

[shaddowez]

This is a peculiar unvote.

I don't understand your line of thought behind the bolded.

droog wouldn't want to be the hammer? Why not?

Presumably droog isn't voting because he doesn't want a lynch yet. He said as much in Post 2013 and Post 2020. If he was to vote either Riddle or myself, that would put us at L-1. And then you'd just hammer, thereby accomplishing exactly what droog doesn't want yet: a lynch. How does your unvote encourage droog's vote in this situation?

You make it sound like I'm just going to hammer regardless of where he places his vote. It is possible that my idea of where to place my vote will change. Even if it didn't, and droog places his vote on Riddle, I would state intent, giving droog (or you, technically) time to unvote if either of you still didn't want the lynch at the time.

As for why I think droog doesn't want to be the hammer, I don't know. It was just one possibility that went through my head at the time, and the one that made it into my post.

Even though he made it clear he didn't want to hammer yet, he didn't seem to be doing much "investigating" either. Now that he's posted more tonight, it looks like he's actually still playing, not just doing nothing.

shaddow explain why i shouldnt lynch you for lurking

Explain how I'm lurking based on my posting pattern, which has been brought up several times now, and I'll consider this.

[shaddowez]

@Droog

- I unvoted when you weren't doing anything, which is amusing that you're calling me the lurker, yet until you started batch-posting again, you had kind of dropped off for a while.

I'm not going to waste my time trying to prove why I'm town. I know this is a very unpopular opinion, but I'm starting to believe that if Riddle isn't scum, droog may be.

As we're approaching lylo, droog getting rid of me would make an easy setup for a hammer. Knowing that you both think he's town, and that you think each other are scum, all he has to do is wait for the first one of you to vote the other, then hammer for a scum win. Keeping me around with either of you, when both of you are hesitant to vote for me, makes it possible he'd be found out before a vote was cast on either of the other two living players.

He's also been tunneling on me, with nothing to go on but "I'm a lurker" and "Thor may have bussed". By the numbers, it is highly likely Thor did bus - out of the four of us living, he only didn't vote for one of us...he never voted Fink's slot. It also looks like he's panicking, but that could just be the way he's posting.

Anyway, the fact that Thor

didn't

ever vote Riddle's slot, when I believe he voted

every

other slot in the game at one point or another, still has me thinking it's more likely Riddle than droog. I'm also not going to vote for somebody else, and have every single player voting somebody different.

VOTE: Riddle

[shaddowez]

droog

, I don't suspect you because you suspect me, I'm beginning to suspect you because of how you're acting all of a sudden. If I thought you were more likely to be scum than either of the other two, I'd be voting you, not either of them.

If you want to look at my voting record of people I "voted for suspecting me" anyway, I'd say I'm at a pretty good success rate.

[shaddowez]

I was referring to Thor. I suppose "suspecting" may have been the wrong word, since his case on me was "PoE"

[shaddowez]

@MOD

- V/LA over the weekend, back on Sunday, 12/14

[shaddowez]

Sorry guys, screwed up my V/LA date this time around.

I looked through the game again, and can't find anything scummy other than how he was acting yesterDay, so I looked more into GC.

YesterDay, GC and Riddle were determined the other was scum. I was basing my belief that Riddle was scum more on what the previous slot holders had done, because neither of them were making an impression on me either way. Now that we know he's town, I'm looking back at VCA to see what makes sense: (I know the D numbers don't exactly match up based on No-Lynches, so assume anytime I use "Day" or "D" I mean lynch)

Both slots were on the wagon D1, which is pretty much a null tell based on the quickhammer by wgeurts.
D2, wgeurts was basically a policy lynch. Riddle's slot was on the wagon, but GC's wasn't. To me, that policy lynch looked more town driven than scum. I know Thor was on the wagon, but considering how many people pushed for it there was no pressing need to have multiple scum on the wagon.
D3, neither of them were on the acryon wagon when it got hammered, and were both on Phil (confirmed town), so there's not really anything to garner here.
D4 - GC's slot put Bob at L-1, and Riddle's slot hammered. Knowing that Riddle's slot is town makes GC's slot look scummier, especially considering D5
D5 - GC's slot puts bert at L-1. Bert was very focused on Riddle's slot, and seemed convinced Thor's slot was town. This is the second Day in a row this slot puts a conftown at slot, making it eligible for lynching without actually doing the deed itself.
D6 - GC, who was riding Riddle for most of the Day, switches votes to lynch Thor. 1917 is very interesting at this point, as well.
D7 - this is a quicklynch on AA9, which Riddle started, but he was pushing for Thor/AA on D6. GC, who has made it obvious he realizes my time-based posting restrictions, jumps right on, knowing that it only takes droog to vote for the lynch.
D8 - Riddle (conftown) and GC are going at each other. This is a similar situation to what I brought up as a possibility for droog. Knowing that droog would be going for me again toDay, it made more sense to try and get rid of the person who would be going for him toDay instead, and have an easy lynch on D9...which leads me to....
D9 - GC votes for me immediately. Regardless of which of them is scum, if droog hammers scum wins. However, if GC is scum and knows that droog is town, he can assume that droog won't hammer. This "proves" droog's towniness, but doesn't reveal GC's alignment.

VOTE: GC

[shaddowez]

Well, that wasn't really a defense, that was his best attempt to call me scum.

Considering droog's reason for voting me is almost purely PoE and because I'm a "lurker", I didn't see much to defend against. If he (or you, though I highly doubt it) have specific questions about what I did or why I did something, I'll be happy to address them.

[shaddowez]

I don't know what Thor was thinking or trying to accomplish, so anything I say is based purely off of guessing.

Thor-scum motivation for voting shaddow-buddy when nobody else was was that it allowed him to pretty safely vote a bud without too big of a fear of people joining him. At one point someone - I think it was Fink - asked Thor what he thought about the fact that nobody was joining him on his shaddow suspicions, and Thor basically gave the text version of a big shrug. Which is notable in how apathetic Thor was towards getting others to join him on the shaddow vote, in contrast to his pretty heavy-handed push of the other votes (as noted by acryon back when he was criticizing Thor's play).

Thor-scum motivation for jumping off of you and voting shaddow-buddy, and then telling me to join his vote/goading me into voting shaddow by pursuing my own shaddow suspicions, I guess was Thor trying to severely undercut my Thor suspicions by leading the charge against shaddow. Thor was a leading vote candidate at that time, tied with droog - so from Thor's perspective, even if he did get lynched, then his reignited shaddow push would look good for shaddow (it worked).

Thor first votes me on D5 with an empty vote, which he then explain as being based on no read/lurker reasonings. This is the vote that Fink questions about nobody joining with. He then switches to Droog later that Day based on discussion with Fink. He switches back to me, and a good portion of the early 1500 posts are him trying to convince droog that I'm scum, so I'm not sure where the apathetic push idea is coming from.

I also notice that you don't have anything to say about Thor voting your slot

once

the entire game, and there was zero push for him to get on that wagon. It was just another series of wall posts that didn't really say anything.

shaddow looks like he feels obligated to vote Thor, but doesn't necessarily really want to: he acknowledges that folks might see it as a OMGUS vote, so preemptively tries to kill that criticism, and then provides some pretty weak justifications.

As for why vote his buddy Thor-scum? I don't know. The VC was droog, Thor, and shaddow all at 1. Maybe he got nervous about him or Thor flipping without him having sufficiently distanced from Thor? Scum are much more worried about optics than town, so he could have been nervous about the following LYLO situation in which both he and Thor survived after having pushed through a droog-town lynch.

There was enough push for Thor's lynch that I didn't need to vote for Thor. However, using that reasoning at this point in the game doesn't really matter, because your admittedly showing confbias. Had I not voted for Thor, you would be finding a reason to use that against me. I'm also not sure I understand your last sentence there....if I'm scum, and we know Thor was, why would I be nervous about Thor and I surviving in LYLO?

[shaddowez]

droog, please ask questions of either of us, or just hammer one of us. I know you still have a day before prod, but I really don't want to see a replacement at this point in the game.

[shaddowez]

Will post tomorrow night, didn't mention standard weekend V/LA as I thought game would be over

[shaddowez]

Good game everybody Scum, sorry for the loss at the end. Work and life got insane (had no site activity at all for a while), so I couldn't push as hard in LYLO. I honestly think we could have had it too, if it had been different circumstances (namely, a different scum member in LYLO).

Definitely droog for MVP though, amazing job!