Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[CommKnight]

VOTE: Brain Skies Obviously scum replacement is obvious.

@Narna,

[CommKnight]

For those online:

What is this and where do you think we are? This isn't united airlines you know.

[CommKnight]

What is this and where do you think we are? This isn't united airlines you know.

[CommKnight]

@Brian, would you say replacing out was not a sign of getting a role someone did not like?

Also it's a joke vote. Everyone here except you and Necta were in the last game before it had to be re-rolled. So poking at the newbies who replaced in due to two people not wanting to continue our fun. We were almost to page 100 on D1 but it had to re-roll because everyone claimed pretty much and Umlaut got the wrong role PM (LOL Guess we shouldn't have made Umlaut claim).

Also, your slot was scum before the re-roll. (So was Frank and me).

Finally, VOTE: Necta, time to bring in the IC who's not so innocent anymore.

[CommKnight]

On a serious note. VOTE: FireScreamer.

His play feels off from last game.

{FrankJaeger, Brian Skies, Narna}
{Alchemist, Green Crayons}
{davesaz, Titus, shannon, RoryMK, Necta}
{Umlaut, FireScreamer}

If FireScreamer is red, I'm willing to bet Shannon is too.

VOTE: shannon

Is anyone allowed to ask why or are you wanting to engage Shannon herself?

Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.

[CommKnight]

My blocs went: Not lynching, slight-TR, Neutral, Suspicious.

As you can see, Umlaut falls on that bloc very easily.

I'm certainly not lynching anyone today that was scum last game, because that is counter-intuitive. It is a gambler's bet. But it's a bet even you know is likely to be correct. Rolling something twice in a row is highly unlikely. Especially if we end up being in a 2 mafia vs 10 VT & 1 1-shot PR game.

Either way, I'd be willing to roll the dice on either FireScreamer or Umlaut. It's a hunch, but it's more than likely a right one and they're gonna rip on me after the game for "getting lucky" if I'm correct. But we'll see.

[CommKnight]

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

- This implies 2 v 10 + 1 town PR
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

[CommKnight]

This is C9++ meaning that the set-up is actually found on the site's wiki.

C9++ Wiki

So in this set-up the mod rolls SEVEN numbers of 0-100

1-50 = T (Townie. This actually directly influences scum powerroles.)
51-65 = C (Cop)
66-75 = D (Doctor)
76-85 = V (Vigilante)
86-95 = M (Mason)
96-100 = B (Blocker)

As you can see each set of numbers have an assigned letter.

T = 50
C = 15
D, V, M = 10
B = 5

Meaning T has 50% chance of being rolled for each of the 7 randomly generated numbers. C has 15%, and so on.

If you check the link, they'll show you what roles there are upon rolling each one.

Then you go to the scum roles.

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

If all 7 are T's you go with the first set-up for scum. Work your way down the list for each C, D, V, M or B that's rolled in place of a T.

So let's say for example the mod rolls CBMMTTT.

This means the game will have 2 goons, mafia roleblocker, Serial Killer, 1-shot cop, town roleblocker, 2 Masons and 5 VTs. For the rest of the configurations you can check.

But as we flip mafia roles/SK is found/town PR's die, we can fill in the ??????? questions with letters and prevent scum from fake claiming. Or we can actually CATCH scum in fake claiming.

Fastposted a few times. LOL, I'm gonna go ahead and say I'm on the right track here. Already Umlaut is trying to make associations and GC doesn't like the fact I won't lynch the other two that were mafia last round DAY 1. (All other days are open season, but Day 1, I'm not lynching them. If you think that's a smart move, I may need to teach you on how to play with probabilities as town). You can hate me all you want, but the numbers don't lie. My preference is in the Umlaut/FS duo today.

[CommKnight]

@GC, if you're paranoid about being buddied. Look at Umlaut's question to you about a Narna and me duo. Like legit. He's trying to get on your good side. Also for being the math guy, he's not even looking at the numbers for this. Just sucking up to you to mislynch D1. I'm a betting man and I will bet in odds when they are favourable to catching scum even if they act townie. They can never hide from probability.

[CommKnight]

Also for being the math guy,

he's not even looking at the numbers for this

. Just sucking up to you to mislynch D1. I'm a betting man and I will bet in odds when they are favourable to catching scum even if they act townie.

They can never hide from probability.

What's the probability of getting scum in a C9++ setup?

What's the probability of getting scum in a C9++ setup, given that you got scum last time?

Unless you can answer these questions, you don't actually give a shit about "looking at the numbers." You're just making things up.

Well you have to make an assumption of how many anti-town are in the game. It can range from 2-4 and SK is every second T, so let's say on average there is 3 anti-town every game.

This means that there is 3/13 chance of rolling scum in ANY given C9++ set-up. (Roughly 23%).

While it is true, both games are indeed independent, when they are the same number, same set-up, same probability created by the same randomizer. We have a probability stat to look at.

(3/13) * (3/13) = 9/169 , in other words, 5.3%

So you have to gamble on me being scum on a 5.3% margin. Higher if there are 4 scum, lower if there are only 2.

Probability. You just can't beat it.

Meanwhile. Let's look at the probability of rolling town twice on the assumption of 10 townies each game shall we?

10/13 = 77% (rounding up)

(10/13) * (10/13) = (100/169) OR 59% In other words, if I were to take a random shot at a person who was townie last game, they'd have a significantly higher chance of being scum this game than I would.

For those who don't understand. Out of the two games, there is 13 slots. We're estimating a 10:3 ratio. 13 slots per game makes 169 total combinations. Me being scum in both games only works in 9/169 combinations (or 5.35% of the combinations). While someone being townie in BOTH games works in 100/169 combinations (or 59%). Obviously the percentages seems off when you think 41% chance of every town player from last game being scum this game. But what the probability is saying, is that if we were to branch this town into every possible outcome in the game, then only 9/169 combinations of the two games would have me being scum in both.


On another note @Umlaut. Here's the lowest probability setup: BBBB(VVV/DDD/MMM). Technically BBBBBBB would be the rarest but there is NO set-up available for such a scenario. So the above would be the rarest. The probability would be as follows:

(5/100) (5/100) (5/100) (5/100) (10/100) (10/100) (10/100) = 6.25e-9 (Or in more understandable terms... 625,000/100,000,000,000,000 = 625/100,000,000,000) Yep, so if we had time to make 100 billion games randomly, 625 of them would contain the BBBB(VVV/DDD/MMM) setup!

[CommKnight]

Note on combinations: It doesn't account for what OTHER people are for every slot on am. Just the fact that there are 3 available scum slots for me each round and 10 available town slots. It measures the probability of me falling into any of the 3 scum slots both games, not what others would fall under for the overall "combination". Just where my slot would fall under. I hope that clears that up. Probability is fun. But it can really mess with your head.

[CommKnight]

Just because we know the outcome of the first roll, does not make the probability any less. Because in the sum we are looking at percentages. I mean I could very well be scum in both games. But the percentage overall is lower. I mean it'd be like saying if I won the lottery this week and picked the exact same numbers next week that I'd "still have the same chance". But no I wouldn't because the law of probability dictate that picking the exact same numbers as the week before would be stupid and you'd be throwing your money away.

It's like rolling dice. If I roll a six four times in a row. You can bet your ass my money would be on rolling something else the fifth time. It isn't that I could never roll a six a fifth time, but that the probability of me rolling a six five times in a row is a lot lower than just saying I got 1/6 chance of rolling a six every single time and completely ignoring the probability from the last roll.

Now usually you can't do this probability in mafia because there's different mods, time in between the rolls, different sizes, etc. But in an open game with the same number twice in a row. We can use it to our advantage D1 at least of all days. D2 I'd be more interested in getting a solid cop claim. But D1 when we all know each other and any "reads" are now more NAI than anything. I'm willing to risk taking a D1 probability lynch.

Now here's the question. Why is there so much resistance when I go up against FS? I'd say the probability of him being scum is tipped a bit higher than a random lynch by now. Because of how much protection/buddying he is currently receiving.

Fastposted by Umlaut. See, 30/169 is a bigger chance than 9/169.

[CommKnight]

So then we're in agreement. I'm less likely to be scum than anyone who was town last game.

Also FS is definitely acting differently this game than last game. Also would you think I'd draw attention to myself this game as scum if I did so last game as scum? I mean fool you once, I'm doing my job. Fool you twice, and LMAO. But in all seriousness. Do you believe that after the game ending early last game and me showing up as scum playing the way I did, would it not make more sense for this time if I were scum to lay lower and not draw as much attention to myself? You really gotta ask yourself that one. Which is why I find it funny GC points it out yet continues to vote me like "Hey, he's doing the same thing twice in a row as scum, he must be scum guys! He'd NEVER change his strategy or anything if his alignment was the same!"

Fastposted. You're on Umlaut. I'll have you know, I predicted a coin flip correctly 23 times in a row one time... Netted myself $300.

[CommKnight]

Which for anyone who likes probability.... 23 times at a 1/2 chance... is 1/8,388,608. (Assuming I predict heads/tails from the start and go right through before the initial flip). While I had a 1/2 chance every time the coin was flipped... the overall probability of being right every single time...

[CommKnight]

Look at that OMGUS vote. I'm interested in what we can squeeze out of you FS.

@Dave, It's a pretty simple tier. Not lynch D1 is just my gamble of them not rolling scum again. The TR's are TR's. Neutral, I got nothing on. Honestly the Umlaut/FS duo I'm interested in. Also Umlaut even admitted he's SR'ing all the ones who voted him last game.

@FS, No, not a 1-shot Doc. Don't you know? The mod broke the game and made me a Jester-Vig-3rdParty-Vampire. I can bite in the day and shoot at night and if I'm lynched I win.

[CommKnight]

I warn you Comm. If you try and take me down here you will lose.

If you are town you need to reconsider suiciding based on a provable logical fallacy. It would leave town with nothing to go on tomorrow.

That isn't an argument that says you're town. That in fact points more towards a threat. If that is indeed how you wish to play it, we'll do it that way.

[CommKnight]

[quote="In post 268The point is that Comm is like "well obv probabilities matter super most and therefore I'm not going to vote D1 for anyone who rolled scum last game" when he himself rolled scum last time, thereby (1) broadly laying the bad groundwork for why we shouldn't vote him D1 and also (2) planting the buddying seeds in the minds of his prior game scumbuddies' minds that they definitely shouldn't vote him either.[/quote]

That's not even the point I'm trying to make. Before we even have a flip, result or anything, D1 I'd just rather lynch outside of the 3 people who were scum last game. Simply due to the likelihood being less. Whether you agree with my math or not isn't the point of the whole thing. I'm trying to score us a scum lynch D1 even if it comes down to a bit of luck and mixing that with how people act. I mean hell, I suggest go Day 1 without lynching in the pool that were scum last game and already you got people going crazy that they might have to look elsewhere for a single day.

@Umlaut, depending on how you looked at it, it really was me, you, Alchemist, GC and FS. Of course, me being scum at the time I was trying to control the bloc away from scum and cause enough disruption on a TvT wagon that if I were to flip, the other might get looked into a bit further.

@GC, I had set-up knowledge last game other than suspecting Umlaut being scum (because of the messed up role stuff), so obviously my TR's back then would have some bias in them since I would already know who was town and who wasn't. But would you say FS has been acting differently this game? Is there anything townie he's doing now that you can hard link to the last game?

Also I notice Necta has not said anything yet.

Also FS, "you got 0 towncred, you won't be believed." Isn't really something townies say. Not sure if it's just me because it's directed at me to notice the tone, but it's kinda like "Haha, you can't catch me, town will never believe you" sort.

[CommKnight]

@GC, I would still argue the same if I wasn't scum last game. It's a gambit but hey, if it ups our odds to 30% or more. I'll take the gambit.

That and Frank and Blue Skies hasn't really done much to grab my attention. Meanwhile FS's posts do kinda strike me as odd. He's not playing like I would expect him to as a PR and he was a VT last game, so you'd expect at least something similar to it. But I don't believe he is playing like he would a VT. I mean hell, he's not even interested really in engaging others. I've set my eyes on him and have mentioned suspicion and it essentially ends in an OMGUS vote and a rhetoric about me not having the town cred to lynch him.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but town doesn't really use that phrasing and he sure as hell didn't talk like that remotely last game toward anyone.

Not only that, but he has been unable to engage anyone else in talk really. Umlaut has tried to drag you into their voting but ultimately FS has failed to really look at anyone else. Perhaps it is part my fault for zeroing in on him. But I think he's acting this way because when he's scum he does not do well under pressure of any sort. (Anyone have experience with scum!FS to confirm this?)

Also I do take notice that ultimately it's myself, FS, GC, Umlaut and Alchemist posting again... I am not opposed to lynching in the lurkers when this comes towards deadline and I will do so if they produce nothing between now and then.

[CommKnight]

Here's the problem with your questions Umlaut. They take posts too literally. Titus nor I can know 100% (assuming she's town as well) who scum are. In fact it's Day 1, the only ones who know who scum are 100% are... scum.

You're asking me how I know someone in last game's town bloc is definite scum. Well it can never be 100% we could all be town this game and it could be a game full of lurker scum allowing the town to go at each other. However, that is counter intuitive. I see FS postings as off. Even if only slightly. I can't point at something and be like "Ah ha, he's 100% scum, let's lynch him". I can only state that his reaction thus far hasn't been quite what I'd expect from him as town again.

If you got something better to bring to the table, then bring it. But you haven't been sticking your neck out for anything aside from questioning. (Legit, questions might 'seem' townie. But to me if they aren't backed by you taking a few gambits and risks, it tells me you're playing TOO carefully. Which can be a sure sign of scum play-wise).

I do find it funny how my two SR's are 2/3 of the people voting me currently. XDD I doubt that BOTH are scum, but they both seem scummy to me and I will laugh if they were the only two anti-town in the entire game.

[CommKnight]

Welp Firebringer is town.

He sure as hell wasn't town in the game I played with him. I'll nail both Fires for it. Also that mod post doesn't confirm his alignment. If he's scum doing it, it's the same result.

[CommKnight]

Again, you're taking it too literally and skipping over the parts that help make it make sense. Not sure if intentional or if you're reading what you want to read into me.

- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.
- Instead of building said case on them, you worry about defending FS. Which honestly started as a simple SR as scummy behaviour. But mixed with your defense of him. I'm willing to bet more on there being one scum in the two of you if you aren't both scum.

If you don't like my SR of yourself or FS, feel free to make a case for something. But worrying about me providing burden of proof (when there is none currently for anyone) is itself a fallacy. In fact, your entire thing and vote on me is that I don't have a solid case to vote FS. (Which shouldn't worry you unless you somehow know for certain he is town). Which I could argue the same back against you both. You got no real case. Just votes on me for voting FS and suspecting him. Which IS an OMGUS vote.

Back when I was going on about the probability numbers, you guys are soo worried I won't lynch into two other people (and myself included). I'm not enforcing this rule on others. But *I* won't vote in the pool. (Which of course I'm in the pool, I'm not going to vote myself. Herp a derp).

But yet you keep pushing this "Why won't you lynch X?" crud. Unless you got a case against either of them, then it's wise to drop it. Because why aren't YOU lynching X? Again, I have TWO people I'm not voting for DAY ONE. This is what you guys blew out of proportion because I said the random probability is lower on them being scum than others. Then you get antsy about a vote on FS. Again, unless you got some reason to solid TR him, you should want more information from the slot as well, should you not? Or are you going to claim mason buddies? Otherwise your defense of the slot as a townie makes zero sense. You should want to sort EVERYONE, but you're using past-game-confirmation-bias to be against my style of play while writing off the difference in FS now play compared to last game play.

Do I need to spell it out any clearer? So far you and FS have been the most scummy in my eyes and it's only getting worse. Want to prove me wrong? Then let us get more info, or you find a good case for me to look at. Because currently I only see the one valid case of your defense of FS and overreaction to initial reads. Part of it was gut, but now it's your guys' play thus far.

Fastposted by Umlaut. Well as I've stated in this post, it's leaving the probability phase and entering a more reaction phase. I had nothing solid to go on now, but now I believe I do. (Read the above paragraphs).

[CommKnight]

@Umlaut. I mean really think about what happened so far. Joke Phase > I create a list of people I TR, won't lynch, neutral about and two people I'm suspicious of. Partially using probability in my case. > The two people I happen to SR both vote for me because they don't like where my suspicion is placed. > They keep asking for something solid, with one always mentioning my "town cred" as a reason he'll win a 1v1. In fact if he were town, why would he already be thinking of a 1v1? I never mentioned one. > I then gain a read of a team dynamic. Maybe wrong, but maybe right and if right, it was due to a lucky guess from probability followed by reactions.

But I'm done with this for now, it's just us posting at the moment and it adds nothing to the game since you're going to keep reading only what you want to read of my posts and ignoring the reasons behind them or trying to over complicate them. I want to know what those who HAVEN'T spoken really yet on it on what they think. You should be wondering that as well if you're interested in finding the scum because we can't let others hide from this.

[CommKnight]

Uh, +1, or ditto, or whatever the cool kids are saying these days.

Lol, "cool kids." I'M COOL. So just follow me. The cool kids speak proper English. Not the lame "txt spk" kids do or the "1337 5p34k" either. Also that is a life tip for the younger ones playing. If you go to hit on a woman. Intelligence is much more valuable than that shit. (I mean, don't go rocket-sciency intelligence because the average high school girl will not give a rats ass about that and will look at you like you're weird. Even if you speak of Elon Musk. All the kids raving about environmentally friendly and all this liberal stuff. Yet don't even know who Elon Musk is or what he does. My coworkers don't care when I explain it out to them).

ANYWAY, back on topic.

- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.

Had you previously stated the "today only" aspect of your probability thing?
Have you said who the TR's are?
Do you have any actual SR's yourself?

Are you aware of what the probability thing says to an observer who is outside the 3 people who get a free pass and the people you're directly arguing with?

Pedit: Yay, replacement!

I find it funny you ask me those things... since I'm literally the only person with an actual reads list in the game... that and I've stated those things multiple times. I mean heck, this is my 23rd post, so even ISO'ing me isn't so bad aside from my walls of text. (I'm going to build great walls... they're going to be great... the greatest you could say. I know people... important people... they'll help to ensure the USA pays for these walls. They're great people and I know them. Very important. Much Doge).

On a serious note. VOTE: FireScreamer.

His play feels off from last game.

{FrankJaeger, Brian Skies, Narna}
{Alchemist, Green Crayons}
{davesaz, Titus, shannon, RoryMK, Necta}
{Umlaut, FireScreamer}

If FireScreamer is red, I'm willing to bet Shannon is too.

VOTE: shannon

Is anyone allowed to ask why or are you wanting to engage Shannon herself?

Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.

Look at that beaut. My first serious post of the day has an early reads list (and people have been getting antsy about it ever since.

My blocs went: Not lynching, slight-TR, Neutral, Suspicious.

As you can see, Umlaut falls on that bloc very easily.

I'm certainly not lynching anyone

today

that was scum last game,

because that is counter-intuitive. It is a gambler's bet. But it's a bet even you know is likely to be correct. Rolling something twice in a row is highly unlikely. Especially if we end up being in a 2 mafia vs 10 VT & 1 1-shot PR game.

Either way,

I'd be willing to roll the dice on either FireScreamer or Umlaut.

It's a hunch,

but it's more than likely a right one and they're gonna rip on me after the game for "getting lucky" if I'm correct. But we'll see.

And oh mah gawd. My next post literally has me saying I won't lynch them TODAY. Then I even went on to say my Umlaut/FS reads were a HUNCH. It's almost like these two posts everyone has gone crazy over... because they might be... RIGHT.

Anyway, I don't mean to be a sarcastic prick.. oh wait. Yes I do. (No I'm just being an ass because my ISO is a quick read when you read those two posts and then base everything since then from those.). Seriously though, think about how Umlaut and FS have reacted since and the wagon forming on me based on those two serious posts of the day. I mean I get I didn't have the BEST case on them at the time (there was nothing solid to go on back then). But now.. as stated in one of my latest posts.

Again, you're taking it too literally and skipping over the parts that help make it make sense. Not sure if intentional or if you're reading what you want to read into me.

- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.
- Instead of building said case on them, you worry about defending FS. Which honestly started as a simple SR as scummy behaviour. But mixed with your defense of him. I'm willing to bet more on there being one scum in the two of you if you aren't both scum.

If you don't like my SR of yourself or FS, feel free to make a case for something. But worrying about me providing burden of proof (when there is none currently for anyone) is itself a fallacy. In fact, your entire thing and vote on me is that I don't have a solid case to vote FS. (Which shouldn't worry you unless you somehow know for certain he is town). Which I could argue the same back against you both. You got no real case. Just votes on me for voting FS and suspecting him. Which IS an OMGUS vote.

Back when I was going on about the probability numbers, you guys are soo worried I won't lynch into two other people (and myself included). I'm not enforcing this rule on others. But *I* won't vote in the pool. (Which of course I'm in the pool, I'm not going to vote myself. Herp a derp).

But yet you keep pushing this "Why won't you lynch X?" crud. Unless you got a case against either of them, then it's wise to drop it. Because why aren't YOU lynching X? Again, I have TWO people I'm not voting for DAY ONE. This is what you guys blew out of proportion because I said the random probability is lower on them being scum than others. Then you get antsy about a vote on FS. Again, unless you got some reason to solid TR him, you should want more information from the slot as well, should you not? Or are you going to claim mason buddies? Otherwise your defense of the slot as a townie makes zero sense. You should want to sort EVERYONE, but you're using past-game-confirmation-bias to be against my style of play while writing off the difference in FS now play compared to last game play.

Do I need to spell it out any clearer? So far you and FS have been the most scummy in my eyes and it's only getting worse. Want to prove me wrong? Then let us get more info, or you find a good case for me to look at. Because currently I only see the one valid case of your defense of FS and overreaction to initial reads. Part of it was gut, but now it's your guys' play thus far.

Fastposted by Umlaut. Well as I've stated in this post, it's leaving the probability phase and entering a more reaction phase. I had nothing solid to go on now, but now I believe I do. (Read the above paragraphs).

For real, read the first two posts I quoted of myself. Where in them did I say no one else could look into Frank or Blue Skies? I just said I wouldn't lynch them today based on probability. Which like the probability or not, or like the reasoning or not. It's my own train of thought and it is most likely right this game based on their overreaction to it thus far.

@Rory, the above was towards Dave, but I'm really interested on WHAT you support about my wagon. I just pointed out the two things people got all antsy over me for which can be reread in my VERY short ISO. So what do you agree with again? Because you're sliding down any chance of being TR'd for today. That's for sure. At least Daves isn't blindly following something they see as an easy mislynch. To me, you seem less interested in why the wagon is formed on me or even reason to vote me. Just you see something forming and voting it. Am I wrong?

Also, you never answered my question. When you play a game, do you avoid the PT area of the forum on your moderator account?

[CommKnight]

You read THAT and skipped over everything else I just said. Hang today scum.

[CommKnight]

How about what I've bolded in red text and my comments on them where I say that THESE are what everyone is wagoning me over. The fact I got the balls to put down a reads list and GAMBLE on something rather than sit there with my thumb up my arse!

[CommKnight]

Well last game Frank and Momo were inactive (Blue Skies, Momo's replacement) is pretty townie and Frank is a lot more active than he was. So I'd like to think they're both town at this point, but will reassess as time goes on. Right now I am certain something is up between FS/Umlaut though.

[CommKnight]

@FS, where is yours and Umlaut's read list? Aside from myself and each other. Reasons why? I'm curious to see where you stand, if anywhere. No stalling either.

[CommKnight]

Updating my reads list by the way, nothing real solid yet as a lot of people are just becoming more active today. Gonna make the reads clear too.

TR: daves, Narna, Frank, Alchemist, Green Cryaons and Brian Skies (I keep calling him Blue Skies, sorry!!!)
Neutral: shannon, Titus and Gamma Emerald
Scum lean: RoryMK
SR: Umlaut & FireScreamer

[CommKnight]

1.) Hunch.
2.) His defense of you.

[CommKnight]

Well at this point if FS flips red, I think we'd have quite a few associates to look at.

[CommKnight]

@Rory, I was just curious as to if you could see the PT's because let's say there was a game with PT's outside of scum chat, if you were able to see it and playing in that game you'd know there'd non-mafia with PT's ongoing. But that's cool. Makes sense to do it that way to prevent things like that.

Also I've had two games with Frank, one as both town and one as both mafia. I'd like to think I got a feel for him. As far as Narna goes? I only had a single game where I was mafia and she was town. I'd like to think I know how town her acts.

[CommKnight]

@GC, well consider this: FS hasn't really stated a good reads list of his own. Really only "questions" mine. If he flips red, I'd say because my reads might be correct. He's worried about being singled out by PoE. Not only that, but asking why I TR people constantly seems to be unsure scum who want to know why they aren't in my TR pile. If they were town, they'd create cases for me to examine why I SHOULDN'T TR someone. Not just telling me I shouldn't because herp derp, they told me so.

I'm comfortable with flipping FS today. You mix his play with his earlier statements of me not being able to lynch him, makes me want to see him lynched all the more just to show his cockiness as scum doesn't work when up against me. When you're in my sights, you're going to either claim or be lynched eventually. No way around it for him now.

[CommKnight]

I'm pretty sympathetic to the GC wagon but I'd still rather attract more attention to Comm, given how badly he buckled under that pressure as scum last time.

Alchemist, what are your independent feelings on FireScreamer? I still think he's town, but I'm much more conflicted on that read than I was last game.

You really are bad at reading me if you thought I "buckled under pressure".

@GC, PoE by TR'ing others. He is left in a pool that I don't TR (or right now I'm even SR'ing). Which as scum, that would not leave much room to wiggle. When I'm pretty much the only one posting full read lists at the moment, scum!FireScreamer could be seeing it as himself being cornered a bit and after comments last game about what happens when a scum gets in my crosshairs.. He could be worried. Especially if he read any of my past games. Now this is just a theory. But it's a possibility that he is worried that if I gain the town cred he says I don't have, that he will be facing the chopping block if people don't believe whatever he claims.

VOTE: GC - This is a pressure vote for claim. I think GC is town still, but I do think it'd help progress this along to get his claim and push FS if it's believable.

[CommKnight]

Green Crayons

(5): Brian Skies, Titus, Narna, Alchemist21, CommKnight

@Mod

: So uh... what's up with the "right" arrow there TB?

[CommKnight]

This is a pressure vote for claim. I think GC is town still, but I do think it'd help progress this along to get his claim and push FS if it's believable.

That's like the worst reason to vote someone. wtf

Not when my TR's are on him and they aren't gonna help me focus on FS unless we get something from GC. So obviously I gotta apply pressure to one of my own TR's in hopes we can move onto someone I'm SR'ing.

[CommKnight]

(Also who the hell doesn't know who Elon Musk is?)

You'd be surprised, I wonder the same thing but even at my university, there's a small group of us that know who he is. (Then there's even fewer who know about all the things he's been doing). I'm working toward entrepreneurship and innovation so he's the one guy that is a good role model these days for people getting into entrepreneurship.

Anyway, I do play ToS but the intelligence on there is lacking when half of them have only ever played that (and a good portion actually cheat).

But that has nothing to do with me voting GC. It's a compromise. Get this done and over with so I can push on FS. I could park my vote on FS but with how town is being, it's not going to produce results till I know we can put him at L1. If you're voting for a lynch without a claim, say so now and I'll lynch your ass today. I always prioritize claim first. Anyone who hammers before a claim is the next day's lynch.

If you're worried about outing PR's then why the hell do you bother voting anyone? You might as well no-lynch and let the PR's go to work. If today is going to progress, GC is going to need to claim, else, town is going to be too stubborn to actually LOOK at FS. (And no Umlaut, your view of FS has been less than helpful, I'm trying to get the actual town to look at FS, not someone who's been defending FS all along).

[CommKnight]

I have a serious question. Where the hell did all of ya'll get your previous experience playing mafia from? It's like playing the game with guppies who think they're a shark.

It isn't "bad play" "scummy" or whatever you want to brush me off as. Hell, half the people against me keep using "well he was scum last game and played similarly. So he MUST be scum. Because we believe he's stupid enough to draw attention to himself if he were scum two games in a row."

I'm going to stop there, otherwise it will get personal. Trying to brush me off as bad play. You know, scum always try to do that, and they always get caught by me. Then post game one of two things happens. Either they continue their bullshit claims of bad play or admit it was a good game with them falling in my crosshairs.

I say go ahead and lynch me. It'd provide me relief of not having to scum hunt for you guys because when you're looking this far off of finding scum (both wagons are on me and GC which I know I'm town. But I can tell you I'm pretty damn confident GC is town too). When we both flip green and you try to rub it off as "bad play". Just remember you SR two townies and let scum control the lynches.

Want to find scum and be a good hunter? Look at who's directing the wagons on myself and GC. I can promise you you'll find a scum in it.

Anyway, I'm done with this for a bit. Don't like my play? Don't like my case? Make your own. Or you know, "Oh Comm's case is bad, let's vote him instead of.. ACTUALLY MAKING OUR OWN CASES."

@Frank, this is like that damn bastard game. I nailed both scum and even 3rd party tyrant king. Yet my play was always brushed off as "bad" or "illogical" or "scummy". But I was right, wasn't I?

In case I'm lynched, (Claiming now: VT) calling it now.

Town: GC, Brian Skies, shannon, Narna, Alchemist, Gamma Emerald, FrankJaeger
Mafia: FS, Umlaut (and if three, Titus).
SK: davesaz or RoryMK (If no SK, both are more than likely town).

When half of that is right come end game after my lynch, I'm going to look at Brian, Alchemist and GC for letting scum roll them over.

[CommKnight]

VOTE: Rory

You know. I'm going to grill you for this naked vote after what people made up for excuses to vote me.

- Case on Rory?
- What made you change?
- How confident are you he's scum?
- Looking for another claim today? Rolefisher!
- Not sure if bad play, or just terrible scum!

Come on guys, Brian must be scum, he hasn't even expanded upon this vote since then. His slot was scum last game, herp derp, all aboard the Brian wagon.

Jokevote: Brian Skies

No seriously, town got their head out of their collective asses enough to see GC is a bad choice. I honestly don't want him to claim but at the point I voted him it seemed there would have to be one from him so I wanted to get it done and over with rather than waiting around for some turtle to make up their mind they're going to put him to L1 and make him claim with less than 24 hours left.

So VOTE: FireScreamer <- It's a mistake not to put this one in the noose today.

@shannon, nah, I was just curious, maybe I should've made it clear that was non-game specific question or even taken it to pm. But I was wondering how it worked for the mods since they'd be able to modify the different topics and what not.

@Narna, I claimed VT. Claiming early is NAI (I'm not sure when people think L2 is early, we use to always claim L2, because no point in dragging it out and it prevents someone from making an excuse to cast the hammering vote).

[CommKnight]

GC,
Brian, Shannon
Alchemist, Dave
Frank, Rory, Umlaut,
Gamma, Titus, Narna
Comm

Very fluid still apart from the poles but theres generally where I am just now.

Shannon read explanation?
Dave read explanation?
Narna and Gamma?

I mean I get you dislike me and Titus, but if you flip scum, I'm willing to write Gamma, Titus and Narna off as town because of how backwards this is.

Also, my experience with Frank says he's not active when scum and is more active as town. It also says that he's just as quick as I am to pick fights with someone when scum (notice last game when I grilled him for his poor play in our first game together and he went right back at me, he doesn't mind fighting as scum but when we're town, he's more on the fence and not very aggressive in his stances).

So I'm willing to place a bet on Frank being town, anyone care to bet against me? I'll gladly take your money (or in this case, TR'ing ability points).

Also what Titus said earlier strikes me as correct which I'm surprised people want "good" cases, when essentially you should be trying to TR people to create a smaller pool to look at. FS has not once landed in my TR's this game. Last game I even admitted if I was town he would've quickly fell in my TR's. This game he isn't and there's one good reason I can think why. I'll give you a hint. It's some red text in his role.

[CommKnight]

Also, about Campbell's ban. Fucking good. I bet he tries to make an alt and return before the six months is up and gets perma banned. The little dipshit. I don't feel any remorse for that one.

[CommKnight]

Tip GC: Never try to compare my words from one game to the next. Because both play styles will be similar. When I'm mafia, I play the game like I'm town. When I'm town, well I'm town. The only added thing when I'm mafia is I try to set-up town or lead them astray. Even if I clusterfuck them between two townies (like last game).

So far, for finished games. I have only rolled scum twice, both times upon replacing into a game (guess scum don't like playing scum). So far all my games I begin from the start, I roll town. Just seems to be the luck of the dice.

Though you'll love trying to figure me out as we play together more, because I can promise not all my scum/town plays are the same (even if they are similar).

Now I can't pull a power play as town this game, because a VT is a VT, so all I can do is be active and call FS out for being a scummy little bastard. I gotta go through and make my case on him clear. But he's not actually made any real cases that go past saying my cases are bad. I'm very straightforward when I say, if you think my case is shit, make a better one. Scum reading me because you think my case is shit is not a valid reason.

@GC, also notice how you no longer have an L2 wagon on you? Hmm, I wonder what motivation could be behind getting that off you hmmm? I'll take my thanks after game when we both flip green. But I want you to go through the player list, try to cross out the bigger TR's you have. Make a pool of who you think even *could* be scum. PoE by taking out TR's and other small assumptions D1 will help more than you think. I do wish I could have a day vig ability though, just so I could prove who is scum this game.

Umlaut I am having doubts about. I mean I still think he could be scum, but not as confident as I was before. Titus seems to kinda buddy me. But my confidence is more on FS flipping red still. I might not have the perfect case on why he's scum. But I'd love to see a case on why he's town.

[CommKnight]

@Gamma, well compared to last game, he's been only focused on the defensive this game. I mean hell, when he voted me it was an OMGUS vote and I assumed Umlaut was with him when he constantly defended FS's poor play. Initially it was gut from me, but it become more scummy when he was only reactive and not proactive like he was last game.

Not only that, but I think FS's flip will be good for associations. Look at the people who avoided his wagon early on (and kept creating counter wagons) if he flips scum like I believe he will.There's CLEAR resistance to his wagon, it's just hard to tell which ones are his buddies and which ones are just TR'ing him more than me.

That and some of the reasons for voting other people (from the ones who've avoided voting FS thus far) have been rather borderline making up excuses. I'll try to do a full ISO of him before bed tonight.

[CommKnight]

well compared to last game

So we shouldn't compare your play between two games, because they're similar; but we should compare another player's play between two games, because they're different?

Becuase I admit to playing like town when I'm scum to make my similar play unreadable. You'll never know if I'm a manipulating scum or insane (but correct) town.

However, FS has no excuse for being less proactive if he rolls town again. See the difference? I was scum playing like a town-me would play. If he's town, then why would he act differently than he did as town last time?

[CommKnight]

@Brian, I'm kinda on the fence on Umlaut. But consider this: Both FS and Umlaut have played in a way to keep me from sounding credible. In fact over half of either of their ISO's are either 1-2 liner fluff posts or trying to make me look bad.

Some town is buying into it, but they've only ever been pushing me.

Even if you dislike my probability theory, the fact remains it is probably right and if it is, then scum would definitely want the 3 people who were scum last game to hang this game just so they can buy themselves time. Which when they've been trying to control the wagons and every wagon offers little resistance compared to FS. Trying to get votes on FS is like pulling bloody teeth. Now, scum would be all too happy to get on a mislynch of this is what is was. That and funny how they suspect anyone who is suspicious of them. They've not really gone after dave, rory or anyone who didn't suspect them. Which means they also aren't taking risks. If they aren't taking risks, they are playing it safe. If they're playing it safe, we got scum.

[CommKnight]

@Alchemist, Gamma and Narna, what would it take to get you three to vote FS? We can't rely on the others because they've shown they will resist his wagon and if he flips red, we might be able to get two birds with one stone. If you can't help put him at L1, WHY is he town to you all? Look at his ISO, it's fluff, no cases built, nothing. He's relying on being "Town read" to get by. He's not actually trying to scum hunt.

[CommKnight]

@Alchemist. BUT you don't think he's townie neither. At the very least, it'd be a good idea to light a fire under his ass.

[CommKnight]

@GC, yes start sorting elsewhere. Sort FS with me.

[CommKnight]

@daves, notice how both FS and Umlaut are voting Gamma? Join the FS wagon with me. Time to string up scum.

[CommKnight]

@Shannon: You do realize wagons on different people are being created to AVOID a FS lynch. It is clear to anyone watching even just the vote counts that wagons keep forming to try and get away from FS. But it's not working. When FS flips red, I'm going to look at those who refused to vote for him and I will GRILL them alive.

[CommKnight]

@Alchemist, well my reads list is currently like this.

TR: Firebringer, Alchemist, Brian Skies, Gamma Emerald and Narna.
TL: Green Crayons
Neutral: daves and Titus
SL: RoryMK, Umlaut and shannon
SR: FireScreamer

Now if FireScreamer flips green, I'd probably be more inclined to look into Titus. But it seems to me that others are seeing similar play in FS that I'm seeing, so I don't think he will flip green. Also Brian and others pointed out something I didn't really notice. FS early threats were like he KNOWS I'm town. But doesn't want me to be looking at him and he wants something easy to defend against but his overall play screams scum.

I'm still on the fence about Umlaut but if I had to pick with a gun to my head. I'd say FS, Umlaut and possibly shannon being scum this game with Rory, daves or Titus being possible SK.

[CommKnight]

@Titus, there is no question to answer. I had my reads before you did.

It's about time FS hangs!

[CommKnight]

@Davesaz, Why are you voting FS?

Because I think he's scum.

Why though

[CommKnight]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: a50

Oh look, a naked vote from FS when people are changing votes from Gamma. HANG TODAY SCUM.

@A50, I asked because I was genuinely curious. As I said, I could've taken it to PM but I figured some others might like to know the answer as well. I didn't know what they had access to. I mean hell, I'm against scum this game and if there was any way we had an advantage like that (outside of game knowledge) then yes, I'd like to know he's avoiding the thread if it were viewable to him. But I'm happy with the way he says it. I've wanted to play with Radja for a while, and I've never played with the list mods before this game, so it was a genuine question I'd ask no matter my alignment.

Also.. Let's hunt scum today and clear 3 town tomorrow because I mess up again eh? XDD You should seriously think about voting FS though.

@Alchemist. I like you. I don't even have to explain myself, I'll just call on you, it's like you know exactly why I'm doing what I'm doing. It's awesome.

@Everyone READ THESE POSTS 1406 AND 1407. Gamma points out something damning about what FS said about voting Brian... If Brian has been wagoning town.. then FS knows more than he's saying and if he flips red, I'm willing to bet we can clear 3-4 people bang bang bang because of his SLIP!!!!!!!

Oh look... FS votes daves. WITH ANOTHER NAKED VOTE. Scum!FS can hang today, thanks.

@Alchemist & A50, how sure are you on Gamma flipping scum? I'm pretty confident on FS flipping red this game. Look at the past few pages. His votes are all over the place. Whatever wagon he thinks he can get momentum on... NOT TOWN!FS play AT ALL!

[CommKnight]

Also with A50 here, anyone making a case against me for "flawed logic". Ask him what flawed logic did for town in our game.

Fastposted by FS, if you flip green. I would definitely be on Titus. But if you flip red, then I feel pretty confident on my Titus town read. Umlaut could still be scum, but I am interested in battling with him later on in the game when we get flips and the letters get filled. Because if he tries to trick town, I'm gonna be on his ass.

Fastposted again, Oh really? PR soft much? Because a VT claim = HANG.

[CommKnight]

@Alchemist, then I'll make you a deal since I trust you this game. (I'd say 95% sure you're town. Can't ever be 100% sure D1, but your play and when you explain my own play out to people who just aren't getting me. Scum would not do that).

So my deal I make with you is help me push FS for a claim at the least here. If it's acceptable (and no counter claims) then I'll vote Gamma with you. But if he gets countered... I'm hanging his ass.

Fastposted a few times. Because I said I'd be on her to figure her out. Not that she's 100% scum.

[CommKnight]

How about you vote Gamma today. Scum now has to be terrified of my soft. If I'm still alive tomorrow and gamma flipped green

I'll claim page 1.

I'm holding you to this. If Gamma flips green, you claim tomorrow.

VOTE: Gamme

[CommKnight]

VOTE: FireBringer

He went real quiet and we're near deadline now.

Also surprised Umlaut didn't jump on Gamma when he claimed BB. The mistake town made last game was to not account that T's have a 50% chance to be rolled and they looked to fill all 7 letters with anything but T's. I'm gonna go ahead now and assume we have 2 T's at the very least. This means we have a set-up like this right now:

BB*??TT - Assuming Gamma's claim is real, two letters are confirmed + FS's PR sof (which means 3 mafia is confirmed). I'm assuming FS is one letter for now (Won't make him claim 1-2). So that leaves two letters unknown with my assumption of at least 2 T's.

Mafia will know what letters reaimn based on what roles they have. But I'm going to do a bit of guess work with the current claims to get us going here.

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

So unlike last game, I will assume the game is not the first two nor the last two set-ups due to T's being roughly 50% Which means 3.5 is the average. This leaves us with these.

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

- Assuming FS soft is true.
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

Which means there is now 3 set-ups currently really available. For those wondering how I cross out the first two and last two. I based it on 20 randomizing tests. All falling in between 2-5 T's. The likelyhood of rolling 0-1 or 6-7 T's are evidently very low. So this is what I'm working with at least for today. (Technically anything is possible but we'll leave that analysis for later).

I will ask for vigs to not kill tonight. We have no cop investigation and you may hit a PR. So abstain from shooting please.

If we can get a Godfather to flip, I'd say it's the TT setup with pretty good confidence. If we can get an SK to flip, I'd say it's the TTT set-up with confidence. TTTT is a bit harder to find however.

[CommKnight]

I will ask for vigs to not kill tonight. We have no cop investigation and you may hit a PR. So abstain from shooting please.

Strongly disagree.

If a vig were to shoot tonight, he'd do more harm than good.

[CommKnight]

Ha, I thought you were trying to mess with my quote Titus.

[CommKnight]

Titus, didn't you say last roll that one-shot RB claim was an autolynch?

Why aren't you looking at the 1-shot RB as much anyway? It's definitely possible to have, but you NOT saying much about it after last game? Seems odd for you.

[CommKnight]

Also consider my vote on Umlaut if the deadline approaches with nothing on Firebringer.

[CommKnight]

Official Vote Count

Titus

(4):

Almost50

,

Umlaut

,

davesaz

,

Brian Skies

davesaz

(3):

FireScreamer

,

Gamma Emerald

,

Titus

Gamma Emerald

(3):

RoryMK

,

Alchemist21

,

Narna

Almost50

(1):

Firebringer

Alchemist21

(1):

Green Crayons

Firebringer

(1):

CommKnight

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

Town Reads

Almost50 - This guy is playing like he did in the other game I played with him where he replaced into a scummy slot (and it turned out to be a town PR). He isn't perfect on reads, but me and him working together created an unstoppable machine where the scum that I TR'd got offed because he found the flaws and pushed it. So definite asset in later days and like I say, so far, his play is similar so I think this is town.

Gamma Emerald - So his wagon has zero resistance really aside from me and Titus. That in itself tells me something is up here. Also that's one ballsy claim for a scum to make. Nor would I lynch this slot unless we EVENTUALLY mass claim (not today, stop being stupid people, you let scum!Comm me find ALL your PR's D1. Like you couldn't do jack shit last game if we went through with everything because you outed ALL of your PR's to me with the stupid RB/not RB stunt). Plus this guy was already in my TR's. His play so far has not been scum-worthy. Honestly when he does end up dying. I'm going to grill the fuck out of the early wagon for the bullshit cases they made to make him claim in the first place.

Alchemist21 - This guys gets me. If people (like GC) have a hard time understanding what I'm saying. Just ask Alchemist. He is not my unpaid interpreter. The fact he is trying to explain my actions out to town instead of boarding the bandwagon against me. Scum won't bloody do that. If you SR Alchemist currently, you need to rethink your entire reads list if they're that far off base.

Town Leans

davesaz - I wasn't liking daves early play. But lately he's been picking it up and seems to be genuine in questions and sorting people. Can't be 100% on this slot, but hey, for Day 1, I think he's a good town lean. It's one of those slots I can't find anything he's posted to solidify him here, but the gut says if I don't, I'm going to regret it later.

Titus - Gut. Pure gut. If I were to base off just his play, I'd lean scum on Titus. But the way he's after FS like I am, could be buddying me, but if FS is red like I think FS is, then Titus is town. (If FS is green, as I said before, Titus is going to find themselves towards the orange/red real fast). As I don't think Titus would bus FS to help me push him like Titus has so far but if FS is really town, then could be just trying to play me to set up a mislynch and blame it on me.

Green Crayons - He has no associates this game. I've been eyeing how people interact with GC so far this game and I don't think he has a mason buddy or a scum buddy. He's also going balls deep in questions and not afraid to have a different reads. I'd say SK/Town here. With more of a lean on Town. If someone were to try to claim GC was scum, I'd tell them to go float themselves (The 100 reference yo). I'm definitely solid on him being SK/Town. Scum is out of the question.

Neutral

Brian Skies - This one is all over the place. Some of his cases are okay, but some of them could use some work. Honestly, just giving him a Day 1 break since I don't know how to read his play currently as I have no real experience with him.

RoryMK - This is one of the other slots I'd say could be SK if one exists. He has no clear buddies/mason friends. He's alone like GC. Except unlike GC, he hasn't really risked anything for his reads. Kinda feels more of a play-it-safe so far. Not sure how to read Rory yet.

Narna - The early play felt townie, but honestly lately some of it seems a bit bandwagon mentality. Could be town tired of a long D1 or could be scum. So rather neutral on Narna for today.

Scum Lean

Umlaut - He's starting to bring out his math like last game. However his early defense of FS (even when FS admittingly suspected him) and his "cases" so far this game have felt faker than HH breast implants or the idea that Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup. He accuses me of hiding behind gambler fallacy yet he uses the very same probability stuff to excuse himself from looking at the posts. I don't think he's really analyzed anyone so far this game. (At least not sincerely).

FireScreamer - What can I say? Soft a PR, sure. Buy yourself a day or two. Doesn't make my read of you any townier. Unless you were town trying to act scummy so you wouldn't die in the night? (LOL, stealing my thunder with that one).

Firebringer - Honestly, his play hasn't been good. The only thing that bought him time before was my idea of not lynching into the scum team from last game and Frank's earlier play. But Firebringer brings the fire alright to the scum team. By drawing my vote to his ass.



Now with that out of the way with (evidently, not all my reads are as strong as others, some of them I just can't be assed tonight to explain out any further than I have). I hate Day One's. Honestly, I'm a lot better later on in the game when we begin getting results, flips and associations. But I feel like we've hit a brick wall for all we can really find today and I kinda just want today done and over with (after over 140 pages between both games and not a single flip!!!).

So hate me if you want, but I think Firebringer lynch is the way to go. Outside of my town reads/leans, it becomes risky to lynch some of the others without more evidence for/against them that we might hit a town PR which I'd rather we not out any more today. Give scum less info to go into N1 with.

[CommKnight]

Also I just noticed how most of my reads list have 4 sets of 3's mostly.

[CommKnight]

Well Rory has hit the 2 days mark about 6 hours ago. So he is due for a prod.

Still mentally debating on who I'll vote for if deadline approaches without FB being one of the choices. A50 is off the table however, so get your head outta your ass there.

[CommKnight]

VOTE: Titus Eh, Titus isn't high in my TR's currently. So I'll compromise Titus over Gamma. I also find it funny FS thinks the RBer is useless. You do realize it can counter the scum roleblocker or stop mafia/SK kill right? In a game with limited town PRs, roleblocker is one of the few roles we can at least make use of.

[CommKnight]

I'm glad A50 replaced in. He's dragging Titus and FS through the mud and they don't even understand how.

Titus today, FS claims tomorrow and if he doesn't cliam PAGE 1 of D2.. He dies. No exceptions.

@Full RB, stay hidden. We're NOT lynching Gamma today and getting yourself killed in a game with likely zero doctors is not a bright move. Those who have toyed with the RB/Not RB shit will face trial by fire tomorrow when Titus flips red.

[CommKnight]

Did alchemist crumb and I missed it?

I seen nothing either. I assumed Alchemist was town, but bloody hell, maybe we shouldn't have outed our TRs on him. Because I think a major factor was that pretty much everyone town-read Alchemist.

So that five can tear each other apart for a couple days. I'm conf not mafia so while I have strong opinion on who and who isn't guilty in that pool I'd like to see the pool try and sort itself.

Also, no you aren't confirmed town. Hell, by your own admission you aren't confirmed town. Since you admitted you'd bus as scum you meta'd yourself into that unconfirmed position.

Also LOL at Rory and Umlaut. Speaking of bussing above, check last game. I wasn't afraid to go after either of my scum buddies. In fact I recall willing to trade one for GC by trying to connect the two. I legit TR'd a scummy. I'm not perfect and even my previous games has me TR'ing one scummy usually out of a 3-man team.

But still. thanks for lynching that one town, I wouldn't have seen through him until MYLO/LYLO (and even then iffy).

Now then onto checking the set-up again. The first three are now off the list since mafia roleblocker has flipped.

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

So for now going to assume there's no SK in this set-up.

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker - Needs 1 letter (If we have Masons, this set-up is gone)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather - Needs 3 letters
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather - Needs 5 letters. (This set-up is unlikely due to low probability of rolling 0 T's).

What I'm digging at above, is assuming there's masons, MM, that means there MUST be another town PR because we need odd number of letters to get whatever set-up we're in. Again, I'd cross out 0 Ts due to the 2-5 Ts being the most likely and if we do have a mason duo, we have really one letter left outside the mason. (Meaning whoever is 1-shot/doctor needs to try and avoid claiming so that he can operate).

So set-up for now is assuming this CCMM?TT or CC*??TT (assuming FS PR claim is true but we're wrong on masons). Either way, we're probably looking for a godfather and while I hate that alchemist is dead, his role might actually spell the end for mafia when massclaim time comes (probably tomorrow). So Alchemist could only find one more scum by his role, but with his flip, it digs scum into a tighter hole.

With set-up out of the way (and I think we found which set-up this is), I'll make a separate post with my reads updated.

[CommKnight]

Gamma Emerald

(7):

RoryMK

,

Alchemist21

,

Narna

,

FireScreamer

,

Titus

,

Green Crayons

,

Brian Skies

-- LYNCH!!!

Titus

(4):

Almost50

,

Umlaut

,

davesaz

,

CommKnight

davesaz

(1):

Gamma Emerald

Commknight

(1):

Firebringer

So Narna and Rory were early on Gamma. I'll for now say that they are at the very least Neutral-town reads.

Titus was a counter-wagon and daves was voted by confirmed scum. So I'll slot them in town-leans.

I still town-read A50, his early claim also says that he's trying to give town all he knows.

Green Crayons I still got a town-lean on and Brian Skies is neutral.

FireScreamer is neutral because he is so full of himself that he tried to clear himself as "confirmed town" when he even stated before that he'd not be afraid of bussing as scum. That is contradiction of each other. If he toned it down and didn't admit to bussing when scum, I'd say town. But neutral at best at this point.

But since FS is claimed to be a PR (still not hard claimed), I'd say for me that leaves the pool at: Brian Skies, Umlaut and Firebringer for today.

VOTE: Umlaut - You're the odd one out.

Also I will say this, I doubt both remaining scum were on the same wagon together. Which means that if we nail one on either wagon, it means that FB and the other wagon more than likely has the final scum in it.

[CommKnight]

@GC, I'm not afraid to do it. FS admits he's not afraid to do it. But I don't think Gamma is the type that would, especially while he's the one being lynched.

[CommKnight]

Gee I don't know how youtube tags work.

Everything after the v= you put into the youtube (for anyone who hasn't figured it out yet). Because the tag puts in the rest of the link for you.

Also you know I'm gonna sit here and chill and watch FireScreamer lynch someone because they had a wrong read. *le gasp*. Why the hell would Gamma try to save me if he was Roleblocker? Probably THE most useful role for scum in this set-up. Also with his flip it confirmed 3 set-ups that it's not.

I'll let ya'll fight this one out. I'm parked on Umlaut and when you realize he's scum. come join me.

[CommKnight]

On another note, I've just won a Dayless game that I subbed into on N2, and managed to call both scums remaining when I was a mere Fruit Vendor. What does that tell you? That I have games when I spot on and thus can work out links and call the entire team. Gistou should tell you that I also have games where I get off a shitty start and then never recover from it.

I didn't realize it ended till you posted this (no message or anything). LOL I was the only one on town that could actually kill scum and got 3/4 shots right (but busdriver caused me to miss a shot). Want to see what happens when I'm given that power? Look at that game.

Dayless I literally only misfired once. (Talk about an ego booster) XD

[CommKnight]

@Umlaut. Since you want me to vote elsewhere, make a case for me to vote elsewhere. I townread/lean daves and Almost. That leaves you, FB and the Gamma wagon.

So tell me Umlaut, who's scum? I can tell you I'm not, so who is it? You're so dead set on me you'll be disappointed when you're wrong (though I'm sure there'll be an excuse 'well he was scummy'). But right now, pretend you got the knowledge I'm town ahead of time, who's scum? Look at the wagon on me right now and know that when I flip green you'll have to look at it again.

[CommKnight]

@Umlaut or did both remaining scum bus Gamma? Because by my deductions, you're the odd one out on the Titus wagon, there were only 4 of us. I trust A50 this game and daves wagon seems to have little to no resistance, everyone just piled onto him for??? I can believe FB is scum and one on the Gamma bus. But again, you'd need a reason to scum read FB over you since you were on Titus with the 4 of us.

[CommKnight]

PoE says you're likely scum Umlaut. So like I say, if you want me elsewhere there has to be a convincing reason that someone else is scum over you. Also I doubt everyone on Gamma is town. There's gonna be someone who bussed.

[CommKnight]

@GC, I'm not afraid to do it. FS admits he's not afraid to do it.

But I don't think Gamma is the type that would, especially while he's the one being lynched.

Why?

Gamma isn't usually one to risk stuff like that from what I've seen of him. Why is daves scum?

[CommKnight]

@GC

Reason 1: He scum reads my question to Rory. Not particularly alignment indicative so much as not understanding I was asking Rory in general.

Reason 2: Umlaut and Firebringer are also highlighted, why neither of them?

[CommKnight]

I'm really happy with our current wagons and my townreads seem suspicious of the Cloud.

VOTE: Narna

You are happy with both wagons? Really? So let me get this straight, 3 scum (and make no mistake, there are three since RB was in game). Scum gets lynched and you think that scum had their final vote on another scum with BOTH final scum voting for Titus. Not only that, but you assume even one of the scum stated a hard TR on another that was being lynched. One, that let's not forget will throw his buddies under the bus without a shred of guilt so long as they can use them to trade for a mislynch on town the next day.

In fact everyone voting between BOTH me and Dave (and thinking both are good) are along a very terrible scum hunting line right now. I can get if you think ONE of us is scum. Either or, but if you believe both are scum in the given circumstances. I'm going to ask you to hand in the towel post game and admit you let D2 go to shit because you didn't want to put in real effort to look past two wagons that let's be honest, is obviously being influenced by the real scum.

Come at me Narna, OMGUS me and we'll go at it post-game when what I'm saying (and make no mistake, I am saying both Daves and I are more than likely BOTH town).

Here's another problem everyone is magically skipping over. Both Daves AND me are at L2, if we both voted each other it'd put both of us at L1 with Brian Skies (who no one really hard town reads) hammering. Now let's assume me or Daves is scum and the other is town, would the scum not vote town in the very least of self preservation?

Open your eyes. These two wagons are horrible and scream mislynch on both if anyone actually cares to analyze them.

But hey, I'm gonna just shut up and let this mislynch happen now because honestly, no one is listening to me because everyone, whether they admit to it or not, are prejudging me based on being scum last game.

[CommKnight]

Town comm is screaming bloody murder at me just now. Town comm keeps his tunnel locked firmly onto me. This isn't town Comm.

You know, before I die, I'm going to point out how stupid this is. Claiming I'm tunneling when it's the other way around. I last voted you:

VOTE: Rory

You know. I'm going to grill you for this naked vote after what people made up for excuses to vote me.

- Case on Rory?
- What made you change?
- How confident are you he's scum?
- Looking for another claim today? Rolefisher!
- Not sure if bad play, or just terrible scum!

Come on guys, Brian must be scum, he hasn't even expanded upon this vote since then. His slot was scum last game, herp derp, all aboard the Brian wagon.

Jokevote: Brian Skies

No seriously, town got their head out of their collective asses enough to see GC is a bad choice. I honestly don't want him to claim but at the point I voted him it seemed there would have to be one from him so I wanted to get it done and over with rather than waiting around for some turtle to make up their mind they're going to put him to L1 and make him claim with less than 24 hours left.

So VOTE: FireScreamer <- It's a mistake not to put this one in the noose today.

@shannon, nah, I was just curious, maybe I should've made it clear that was non-game specific question or even taken it to pm. But I was wondering how it worked for the mods since they'd be able to modify the different topics and what not.

@Narna, I claimed VT. Claiming early is NAI (I'm not sure when people think L2 is early, we use to always claim L2, because no point in dragging it out and it prevents someone from making an excuse to cast the hammering vote).

Since then:

How about you vote Gamma today. Scum now has to be terrified of my soft. If I'm still alive tomorrow and gamma flipped green

I'll claim page 1.

I'm holding you to this. If Gamma flips green, you claim tomorrow.

VOTE: Gamme

VOTE: FireBringer

He went real quiet and we're near deadline now.

Also surprised Umlaut didn't jump on Gamma when he claimed BB. The mistake town made last game was to not account that T's have a 50% chance to be rolled and they looked to fill all 7 letters with anything but T's. I'm gonna go ahead now and assume we have 2 T's at the very least. This means we have a set-up like this right now:

BB*??TT - Assuming Gamma's claim is real, two letters are confirmed + FS's PR sof (which means 3 mafia is confirmed). I'm assuming FS is one letter for now (Won't make him claim 1-2). So that leaves two letters unknown with my assumption of at least 2 T's.

Mafia will know what letters reaimn based on what roles they have. But I'm going to do a bit of guess work with the current claims to get us going here.

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

So unlike last game, I will assume the game is not the first two nor the last two set-ups due to T's being roughly 50% Which means 3.5 is the average. This leaves us with these.

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

- Assuming FS soft is true.
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

Which means there is now 3 set-ups currently really available. For those wondering how I cross out the first two and last two. I based it on 20 randomizing tests. All falling in between 2-5 T's. The likelyhood of rolling 0-1 or 6-7 T's are evidently very low. So this is what I'm working with at least for today. (Technically anything is possible but we'll leave that analysis for later).

I will ask for vigs to not kill tonight. We have no cop investigation and you may hit a PR. So abstain from shooting please.

If we can get a Godfather to flip, I'd say it's the TT setup with pretty good confidence. If we can get an SK to flip, I'd say it's the TTT set-up with confidence. TTTT is a bit harder to find however.

[quote="In [url=https://fo

Gamma Emerald

(7):

RoryMK

,

Alchemist21

,

Narna

,

FireScreamer

,

Titus

,

Green Crayons

,

Brian Skies

-- LYNCH!!!

Titus

(4):

Almost50

,

Umlaut

,

davesaz

,

CommKnight

davesaz

(1):

Gamma Emerald

Commknight

(1):

Firebringer

So Narna and Rory were early on Gamma. I'll for now say that they are at the very least Neutral-town reads.

Titus was a counter-wagon and daves was voted by confirmed scum. So I'll slot them in town-leans.

I still town-read A50, his early claim also says that he's trying to give town all he knows.

Green Crayons I still got a town-lean on and Brian Skies is neutral.

FireScreamer is neutral because he is so full of himself that he tried to clear himself as "confirmed town" when he even stated before that he'd not be afraid of bussing as scum. That is contradiction of each other. If he toned it down and didn't admit to bussing when scum, I'd say town. But neutral at best at this point.

But since FS is claimed to be a PR (still not hard claimed), I'd say for me that leaves the pool at: Brian Skies, Umlaut and Firebringer for today.

VOTE: Umlaut - You're the odd one out.

Also I will say this, I doubt both remaining scum were on the same wagon together. Which means that if we nail one on either wagon, it means that FB and the other wagon more than likely has the final scum in it.

rum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9164467#p9164467]post 1699 [/url], CommKnight"]VOTE: Titus Eh, Titus isn't high in my TR's currently. So I'll compromise Titus over Gamma. I also find it funny FS thinks the RBer is useless. You do realize it can counter the scum roleblocker or stop mafia/SK kill right? In a game with limited town PRs, roleblocker is one of the few roles we can at least make use of.[/quote]


Finally:

I'm really happy with our current wagons and my townreads seem suspicious of the Cloud.

VOTE: Narna

You are happy with both wagons? Really? So let me get this straight, 3 scum (and make no mistake, there are three since RB was in game). Scum gets lynched and you think that scum had their final vote on another scum with BOTH final scum voting for Titus. Not only that, but you assume even one of the scum stated a hard TR on another that was being lynched. One, that let's not forget will throw his buddies under the bus without a shred of guilt so long as they can use them to trade for a mislynch on town the next day.

In fact everyone voting between BOTH me and Dave (and thinking both are good) are along a very terrible scum hunting line right now. I can get if you think ONE of us is scum. Either or, but if you believe both are scum in the given circumstances. I'm going to ask you to hand in the towel post game and admit you let D2 go to shit because you didn't want to put in real effort to look past two wagons that let's be honest, is obviously being influenced by the real scum.

Come at me Narna, OMGUS me and we'll go at it post-game when what I'm saying (and make no mistake, I am saying both Daves and I are more than likely BOTH town).

Here's another problem everyone is magically skipping over. Both Daves AND me are at L2, if we both voted each other it'd put both of us at L1 with Brian Skies (who no one really hard town reads) hammering. Now let's assume me or Daves is scum and the other is town, would the scum not vote town in the very least of self preservation?

Open your eyes. These two wagons are horrible and scream mislynch on both if anyone actually cares to analyze them.

But hey, I'm gonna just shut up and let this mislynch happen now because honestly, no one is listening to me because everyone, whether they admit to it or not, are prejudging me based on being scum last game.

So do me a favour, get the fuck over yourself. I haven't voted you in a long time. I've been actually looking at other people, unlike you.

[CommKnight]

VOTE: Narna My last post missed a quote somehow and made the Titus thing outside of quotes.

[CommKnight]

1.) You've never played with town!Comm before this game.
2.) You've never played with scum!Comm past D1.
3.) You assume I'm not capable of actually hunting for real scum instead of tunneling as town. Even if you are scum, there's at least one more out there. That's the one we need to find today.

I also find it funny FS wants to LINE UP LYNCHES for D2 and D3.

But let's assume for a moment you aren't that full of yourself (Which you are). So let's say one scum is between Daves and I, where's the third FS? While I believe that Daves and I are both town, regardless of whether or not I'm right about Daves, there's a third scum missing out there to find.

Also in case I die before I return from work tonight, when I flip green (and I will flip green), if town lynches A50 or Daves without some 1-shot cop getting a guilty on them D3 or D4, I'm going to rip into the actual town players that joined those wagons in dead chat/post-game. What you want to look at upon my flip: Narna, Umlaut, FB and FS. Those four there is definitely one scum in them if not both. Though honestly FS is likely town, just not that great at clearing his tunnel vision. But still you'll need him to claim eventually.

[CommKnight]

Here's what I love, the case on me is the following:

1.) Based on my gambit, I post 2 other people I won't lynch *DAY 1* (Guess what, Gamma wasn't either of them and he turned out scum).
2.) I was on the Titus wagon when I didn't support a lynch on one of my TR's.

Literally, that's it. Get your head out of your ass FS, if you're going to mention bad cases, there's this one right here. I've been pretty damn clear as day and I find it funny that the one guy who understands what I'm saying and my biggest TR of Day 1 (and who let's face it, TR'd me) was killed N1. SCUM KILLED SOMEONE WHO WOULD NOT VOTE ME. Why in the hell would I off Alchemist if I were scum? He's one of the only people who understood what I've said so far.

[CommKnight]

While I'm at it (final message before work). Why wouldn't I just kill you FS? You were a claimed PR. In fact the only claimed PR. If I were scum, I would've killed you and claimed I got set-up if I received pressure for it. But hey, me killing Alchemist makes 100% sense. Let's make sure more people are alive that want me dead rather than the ones who want me alive. That makes total sense... if you're in a parallel universe where people can't think past what they're doing right now (oh wait, that's this one).

I say go ahead and flip me green. FS must claim tomorrow page one when I flip green. Do not let him weasel out of it either.

[CommKnight]

OH LOOK MY TR OF DAVES IS RIGHT. Hence why he didn't take the opportunistic approach to vote me and I didn't vote him. Neither of us are scum. Which leaves Umlaut on that wagon.

But hey, it's Comm, he's scummy, he doesn't know what he's talking about. Also might I add, that FS is now limited in claiming if he is faking a PR. There's two possibilities and I think A50 read it right. Which means the following:

Gamma Emerald (7): RoryMK,

Alchemist21

, Narna,

FireScreamer

, Titus,

Green Crayons

, Brian Skies

-- LYNCH!!!

Titus

(4):

Almost50

, Umlaut,

davesaz

,

CommKnight

davesaz

(1):

Gamma Emerald

Commknight

(1): Firebringer

Umlaut is the odd one out on Titus (assuming Titus is even town, I mean playing the devil here, we could of had two scum on the chopping block here and didn't even know it). With Firebringer on me. I doubt both scum would avoid the wagon on Gamma, so I'd say if we get a red flip out of Umlaut/Firebringer, the other is 100% clear.

But you know, I'm going to go real hard here and say both scum voted Gamma. What does that leave us? Rory, Narna, Titus and Brian Skies. Obviously my reads are saying Narna which I will get to in another post sometime later. But I think we should let daves shoot tonight, sure he could accidentally hit town, but since he's town at least we KNOW the kill is in a town hand rather than a lynch which *can* be manipulated by scum. We should obviously give him a pool to shoot into before we go into the night though. As much as I don't like FS sometimes, he's not going to be in the pool nor will GC or A50. If we can limit it down to 2-3 people to shoot between that would be optimal.

Though I do want to know his letters as well.

Lol my tunnel is strong

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dave

At least you admit to it.

Also, you might enjoy playing with Firebringer, but even you can't deny, he's been sheeping you today shamelessly. Honestly, when I was thinking about it on my break at work, I think the three ones I'd nominate as scum right now (with one obviously being town) is Firebringer, Titus and Narna. I do consider Brian Skies as possibility and even Rory, but I think in the Firebringer/Titus/Narna, there is at least one scum. I'm still meh on Umlaut and if Titus was a counter wagon, he would be 100% the odd one out, but I think the possibility of Titus being scum and we had two wagons on scum yesterday an actual good chance.

Also we know 2 VT's 1 Vig/1-shot, 1 PR (most likely 2 if A50 is correct). I think tomorrow, we should mass claim, regardless of whether or not we hit scum today (or Daves gets them tonight). Because we can essentially force scum to claim into VTs or have to keep PR's alive if they fake claim into that.

[CommKnight]

Comm either you're scum or your reads are shit. Suppose no scum bussed and I am town. What do your reads look like?

What's shit about them, 3 PRs, 1 good TR (though I TR'd Daves before he even claimed).

Want to talk about shitty reads, how about talk about people who put two townies to L2 and wanted them both lynched *cough* FireScreamer *cough*.

My PoV we are left with a short list: Rory, Narna, Titus, Brian Skies, Umlaut and Firebringer. <- I am not voting outside of this pool today. Sure it's 6 people but while you're focused on yourself being in that pool, you forgot I'm actually on Narna who was "satisfied" with the two wagons. When both wagons were shit, have always been shit and not even Titus can make up a load of crud to make them look good.

Let's say you are scum Titus, there's still another scum in that list above. So I'm hunting for them. The idea that yesterday's wagons could've both been on scum is just that, an idea. But do keep getting worked up over nothing. It makes future cases on you easy when we get the second scum and if you're third you lose your defense.

[CommKnight]

I was kinda sour no one went back to bother with my line of thought, not even A50.

I was right with one being on the Gamma lynch and one being off. I was right about Umlaut being the odd one out on the Titus counter-wagon. I was even right about no one from scum team last game being scum this game.

Might disagree with my method. But when it's right it's bloody right. I only TR'd Gamma mistakenly and that was a factor in lynching me. (Though I still do not understand your guys' mindsets on that one. I am willing to bus easily. Even be among the first 2-3 voters on my partners. I would never resist a wagon like that that hard on a scum buddy).

[CommKnight]

Should've trusted me enough to help lynch Narna.

[CommKnight]

^ Am I the only one wondering what the hell this is???