Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[Umlaut]

VOTE: fire
For not getting us to page 19 by now

Sheeping my mason buddy here
VOTE: FireScreamer

[Umlaut]

Official Vote Count

Brian Skies

(3): CommKnight, Titus, Alchemist21

Umlaut

(2): shannon, Green Crayons

FireScreamer

(1): FrankJaeger

Not Voting

(7): Narna, davesaz, Brian Skies, FireScreamer, Umlaut, RoryMK, Necta

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

That's two votes, I should probably claim.

[Umlaut]

You can't make me claim! You can't make me do anything! YOU'RE NOT MY REAL DAD!

[Umlaut]

^^That's what makes me think faux claims. Also no one else is taking it seriously as they would if it was a real claim. I always policy vote fake claims, no matter how fake,

You didn't vote Titus last game for fakeclaiming "two letters."

Shannon why are you offering to recind a vote if it makes someone uncomfortable?

I like this question.

[Umlaut]

Liking FireScreamer as town for the questioning.
UNVOTE: FireScreamer

VOTE: shannon
If I scumread her every game eventually I'll be right and ruin her perfect record.

(Seriously though I'd like her to answer FS' question.)

[Umlaut]

Let's make D1 shorter this go around.

[Umlaut]

But yeah. I feel like I've done something this game that I actively wouldn't do as scum and asked a couple of middling questions. The fact that Umlaut ignored the bigger thing makes me think the read wasn't super thought out and I think town is less likely to not properly think about townreads before expressing them.

I mean, I'm not going to claim it was insightful or well thought out, it's a tenuous read at best. It's just enough for me to want my vote somewhere else.

[Umlaut]

I think it would be less likely to roll scum twice in a row.

Umy, does the math confirm this?

No, this is basically the gambler's fallacy. You can say in advance of both games that someone is unlikely to roll scum twice in a row, but once they've rolled scum once they're already "halfway there" so to speak, and are just as likely as anyone else to roll scum in the second game.

(Phoneposting and a little buzzed, will write about the actual game later)

[Umlaut]

Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.

1. This is phrased as if you were town last game, which you weren't. It's odd that you identify with a townbloc that you weren't really in.

2. Why do you think someone in the townbloc is definitely scum this time? I can dismiss "scum last time won't be scum this time" as a common misconception, but I'm not sure how you're getting this one.

[Umlaut]

It feels artificial and a bit LAMIST, and combined with bad math that happens to point away from him in particular if it's accepted it makes me suspicious.

Re. your point about me and Titus, I think I understand what you're getting at but I'd rather have you spell it out to make sure I'm understanding correctly.

[Umlaut]

Literally the only thing that made me think CK was town last time was the role claim and I said as much then.

Your second paragraph is confusing because afaik neither Titus or I have stated a townread on one another. I thought you were going to say the reason was that if Titus and I are both town you'd expect us to have diametrically opposite reads on shannon, or something. I think even that's expecting too much but at least I can follow it, whereas right now I have no idea what you're trying to say.

[Umlaut]

You've also been pinging me this roll, so I find the whole situation off putting.

Point to one or two things I've said (before your post) that ping you.

[Umlaut]

It is less likely, but at the end of the day it's kind of arbitrary. I was scum in my last game on the site, so I'm less likely to be scum now. It seems like a bit of a fallacy.

I think it would be less likely to roll scum twice in a row.

Umy, does the math confirm this?

No, this is basically the gambler's fallacy. You can say in advance of both games that someone is unlikely to roll scum twice in a row, but once they've rolled scum once they're already "halfway there" so to speak, and are just as likely as anyone else to roll scum in the second game.

(Phoneposting and a little buzzed, will write about the actual game later)

Aside from Frank directly addressing me, this isn't even close to the same thing you said.

[Umlaut]

Narna, how do you feel about CommKnight's latest post?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Narna

Setting up a double mislynch on page 8 is pretty ballsy.

CommKnight's post is badly reasoned regardless of alignment, but more importantly he didn't actually answer my question.

@CommKnight

Why do you think former townblockers are more-than-default likely to be scum?

(Incidentally, having no IC actually makes it more likely we're dealing with a scumteam of 2, since it means TTTTTTT is theoretically possible. More likely is still very unlikely, though.)

[Umlaut]

(off-topic: I wonder what the most improbable C9++ setup ever rolled is.)

[Umlaut]

GC, does Narna/Comm ping for you? I know it's way early to be thinking about this but I felt like Narna jumped down my throat the second I started questioning Comm.

[Umlaut]

Gambler's Fallacy (MafiaScum Wiki)
Gambler's fallacy (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

pedit

@GC, if you're paranoid about being buddied. Look at Umlaut's question to you about a Narna and me duo. Like legit. He's trying to get on your good side. Also for being the math guy, he's not even looking at the numbers for this. Just sucking up to you to mislynch D1. I'm a betting man and I will bet in odds when they are favourable to catching scum even if they act townie. They can never hide from probability.

This feels exactly like Comm from last game.

VOTE: CommKnight

[Umlaut]

Also for being the math guy,

he's not even looking at the numbers for this

. Just sucking up to you to mislynch D1. I'm a betting man and I will bet in odds when they are favourable to catching scum even if they act townie.

They can never hide from probability.

What's the probability of getting scum in a C9++ setup?

What's the probability of getting scum in a C9++ setup, given that you got scum last time?

Unless you can answer these questions, you don't actually give a shit about "looking at the numbers." You're just making things up.

[Umlaut]

Well you have to make an assumption of how many anti-town are in the game. It can range from 2-4 and SK is every second T, so let's say on average there is 3 anti-town every game.

This means that there is 3/13 chance of rolling scum in ANY given C9++ set-up. (Roughly 23%).

While it is true, both games are indeed independent, when they are the same number, same set-up, same probability created by the same randomizer. We have a probability stat to look at.

(3/13) * (3/13) = 9/169 , in other words, 5.3%

So you have to gamble on me being scum on a 5.3% margin. Higher if there are 4 scum, lower if there are only 2

This is wrong but at least it makes me think you're genuinely mistaken, because it's the genuine mistake someone would make.

Estimating the number of scum at 3 isn't perfect (the expected number is about 3.27) but close enough. The real problem here is that the (3/13)*(3/13) number isn't "the probability of being scum in a second game given that you were scum in the first," but just "the probability of being scum in both games."

As of now there is

zero

probability that you weren't scum in the first game. You just were. So the probability that you are scum in both isn't (3/13)*(3/13), it's just 1*(3/13).

[Umlaut]

If what you were saying was true it would invalidate the entire concept of re-rolling a game.

[Umlaut]

Also it would imply that the probability of your being scum in the first game and town in the second is (3/13)*(10/13) = 30/169.

Meaning your probability of being scum

or

town this game is 33/169, and the remaining 136/169 of the time the universe explodes.

[Umlaut]

Meaning your probability of being scum or town this game is

39/169

, and the remaining

130/169

of the time the universe explodes.

EBWOP

[Umlaut]

(sorry everyone, CommKnight pressed my nerd rage button)

[Umlaut]

Yes, and the ratio between them is 30:9, or 10:3.

[Umlaut]

It's like rolling dice. If I roll a six four times in a row. You can bet your ass my money would be on rolling something else the fifth time. It isn't that I could never roll a six a fifth time, but that the probability of me rolling a six five times in a row is a lot lower than just saying I got 1/6 chance of rolling a six every single time and completely ignoring the probability from the last roll.

Remind me to do this with you for money some time.

[Umlaut]

We're not in agreement. 10:3 is just the same odds you'd have of being town:scum anyway. There are 10 town and 3 scum in your scenario.

At this point I don't know whether you're trolling, doubling down after being called out, or just not reading.

I don't like pulling out

ad auctoritatem

but I already tried making the actual argument and it didn't work, so maybe it's worth pointing out that I'm a mathematics ABD who designs slot machines for a living.

pedit

Also would you think I'd draw attention to myself this game as scum if I did so last game as scum? I mean fool you once, I'm doing my job. Fool you twice, and LMAO.

Honestly, yes. You were easy enough to spot last time that I suspect you're just not very good at playing scum.

[Umlaut]

For someone who was scum in the last game, the ratio is (3/19)*(3/19) : (3/19)*(10/19), or 3:10.
For someone who was town, it's (10/19)*(3/19) : (10/19)*(10/19), or 3:10.

It's the same number.
It's the same odds.

[Umlaut]

While I had a 1/2 chance every time the coin was flipped...

Slip.

If you recognize this, you don't actually believe what you've been saying.

[Umlaut]

Well I mean, I think I've caught him out on understanding it perfectly fine, which means I was productive despite my best efforts.

You're right that I didn't engage him so much on the first thing, but I'm not totally sure where to go with that.

"Why do you identify with last game's townbloc when you were scum then?"
"I'unno"

[Umlaut]

@Comm

Who are you actually including under the heading of last game's townbloc?

[Umlaut]

Aside from the general swagger and cocksureness (which is probably just how he is), I distinctly remember him taking others' scumreads/cases and tripping over himself to repeat them twice as loud. CommKnight's post there came right after GC said he sensed I might be buddying him.

[Umlaut]

Hard to quote posts from the old game when the thread is locked, but I had this in particular in mind:

This may be the most fun I've ever had in a Mafia game.

UNVOTE:
Actually I'd prefer to declare intent to hammer just to make absolutely sure he hangs today after seeing 1710. Would appreciate votes on Umlaut in the meantime.

AND I'm locked in. That is the scummiest shit I've seen. Like it's almost too scummy to be scum! The only way he avoid the noose is if he's a mason and even that's iffy.

As far as I know no one else claimed to scumread me more for this in particular than they already had. This was actually a major influence on my later read of "town for the claim and for no other reason" on his slot.

[Umlaut]

(Admittedly that example was also directed at me, which is hard to separate out)

[Umlaut]

Actually, all the examples I can find are directed at me. It's possible I'm just an egomaniac.

He also took Titus' case against me from 1220, 1224 and parroted it back in 1234 even though it was terrible. Others (well, Shannon) followed it but he repeated it as if he'd thought of it himself.

[Umlaut]

That entire sequence happened in the span of 5 minutes. It's entirely possible he didn't even see the IC's post when he posted that.

I mean, it's possible, but when I scumread someone over a thing and then they turn out to be scum I'm going to keep it in mind.

[Umlaut]

Actually, all the examples I can find are directed at me. It's possible I'm just an egomaniac.

He also took Titus' case against me from 1220, 1224 and parroted it back in 1234 even though it was terrible. Others (well, Shannon) followed it but he repeated it as if he'd thought of it himself.

See now that one makes a little more sense. I think it might just be your confbias from the last game talking here though. Someone said the exact thing about me when I voted you (something about "agreeing 200%") and I was Town. You just remember Comm doing it because he was scum in that game.

(nothing wrong with being an egomaniac like me though)

oh shit it was Umlaut who made the 200% comment lol

...which kind of proves your point, doesn't it.

Shit did I just scumread everyone who voted me last game?

[Umlaut]

The math stuff is dumb because everyone (should) recognize that what you rolled last game has no causative effect on what you rolled this game BUT ALSO any given player has less of a chance to roll scum twice in a row in the same game setup (4/13 + 4/13 = 8/26) than roll scum once and then town once in the same game setup (4/13 + 9/13= 13/26). Also that math is very simplified because not every game has a set 4 anti-town slots but the general principle is there.

[Umlaut]

Time to pressure Comm till he reveals it was all a ruse and he is actually 1 shot doc pretending to be scummy.

Why did you say this?

[Umlaut]

@Comm

Who are you actually including under the heading of last game's townbloc?

[Umlaut]

I mean I get that it's a joke, but it's a joke with the implication that we should disbelieve CommKnight out of hand if he claims a PR. Do you endorse that?

[Umlaut]

I don't endorse doing anything out of hand but solid misrepresentation.

Like I understand what you are saying but tone back the strength to which you are portraying it.

(read that at first as saying you endorse solid misrepresentation out of hand, was v. confused)

I'm not misrepresenting anything. It was a joke, it does have that implication, I wanted to know what you actually meant by it. It sounds like you didn't mean anything, but I've been witch-hunted based on "just watch him do X" remarks before and I don't want anyone to fall into that trap here.

[Umlaut]

I would say Alchemist (much more targeted, focused questions), Umlaut (general vibe), Titus (lol where is she?), and shannon (actually answering questions) have all acted differently. Sure, FS has too because he isn't literally dominating the thread peppering everyone with questions.

I think at least some of these (Alchemist, shannon) can be explained as altering the behaviors that got them scumread last time around, particularly if they're behaviors that are arguably anti-town anyway. I know if I were called out for e.g. gliding along and not asking hardball questions, I'd feel some guilt for that even if I were town and would try to do better next time. It's less clear that this is what's going on with Titus though.

@Titus

Are you deliberately adjusting your playstyle this time around compared to last?

[Umlaut]

I mean I can't really argue with you if you say it was meant to be sarcastic, but when multiple people are asking you a serious question when trying to get a read on you, sarcasm isn't the answer.

Ircher tried that shit too in the last game.

Was he scum?
Is it alignment indicative?

Shit my bad. I thought he was in a scum slot but he wasn't.

UNVOTE: Shannon

I would be very surprised if this is scum.

[Umlaut]

Also Rory quoting my question reminds me CommKnight never really answered it, we just devolved into arguing the gambler's fallacy.

Why do you think someone in the townbloc is definitely scum this time? I can dismiss "scum last time won't be scum this time" as a common misconception, but I'm not sure how you're getting this one.

[Umlaut]

Can we slow down? I do has work and other games? Is shannon lynched yet?

I just counted and you have 180 new posts on the site in the past 24 hours, 3 of which are in this thread. "I do has work and other games" just isn't enough to account for that kind of discrepancy.

Honestly I'm not as ready as some people are to scumread you for this. While I've never met scum!Titus, I've heard she's pretty crafty, so I don't believe she has a tell this blatant. But... what gives?

[Umlaut]

Trying to find gems in crap is insane. I just know shannon's scum.

Like whowver else has 3 votes prolly town too

You haven't said anything about how you know Shannon is scum and when someone asked you you said "cuz lol."

A bit excited, aren't we gents?

If you're insinuating something here you should spell it out instead of just eye-rolling.

I've already made a statement in the thread I wouldn't have as scum.

Not credible if you're the one claiming it. Also, if true, is borderline bannable as a trust tell.

True that it's not credible (and I think everyone has rightly ignored it) but not true that it's a trust tell or really even close to one, even assuming he's town. I could point out things in any of my town games that I never do as scum, because they're not things that get me townread and so I have no real reason to emulate them in my scum games.

[Umlaut]

"What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence."

You aren't offering evidence that Shannon is scum, so I'm going to dismiss that read.

[Umlaut]

Welp Firebringer is town.

[Umlaut]

FireScreamer.

[Umlaut]

If I ask
"What makes you so sure of X?"
and you answer
"Well of course I don't

know

X 100%, no one can be 100% sure of anything except scum, I don't have to be 100% sure just to say what I think"
then you haven't actually told me why you're so sure of X, you've just evaded the question.

You're asking me how I know someone in last game's town bloc is definite scum. Well it can never be 100% we could all be town this game and it could be a game full of lurker scum allowing the town to go at each other. However, that is counter intuitive. I see FS postings as off. Even if only slightly. I can't point at something and be like "Ah ha, he's 100% scum, let's lynch him". I can only state that his reaction thus far hasn't been quite what I'd expect from him as town again.

This still doesn't explain anything. You're saying

• You think someone in the townbloc is scum, because you think it's unlikely that no one in the townbloc is scum, because that would mean no one in the townbloc is scum.
  
• You think FS is scummy, because his posts are off, because he's not acting like town.

You're not explaining anything.

[Umlaut]

I understand why you'd think someone who was town last game is more likely to be scum this game.

What makes you think someone who was

townread

last game is more likely to be scum this game?

I don't care if it's 100%, I don't care if it's 50%, I don't care if you're absolutely certain or highly confident or just barely moved. Why do you think this is even a thing?

[Umlaut]

@FireScreamer

What's the thing you've said that you would never say as scum?

[Umlaut]

Be good and post lots x

Aaaaand everyone stops posting

[Umlaut]

Real talk, I consider that every time someone with a wagon gets replaced.

[Umlaut]

He was definitely at the top of the VC at some point because I was wondering why we were wagoning someone who hadn't posted yet.

[Umlaut]

VC 1.5 I guess it was mostly RVS votes though.

[Umlaut]

Are you stating that you don't understand what the insinuation is, or that you don't know whether there is an insinuation?

Either you think one or both of us is handing out townreads too freely, you think one of us may be trying to buddy the other, or you just really like Pulp Fiction and wanted to post that video.

If there is an insinuation I don't like the vague eye-rolling expression of it because it's just shade and doesn't actually help improve your reads or advance a point.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut for King of Town. Unfortunately I think Comm is town too.

Why is this? (About Comm, though I guess I wonder why I'm town too)

[Umlaut]

Are you stating that you don't understand what the insinuation is, or that you don't know whether there is an insinuation?

Either you think one or both of us is handing out townreads too freely, you think one of us may be trying to buddy the other, or you just really like Pulp Fiction and wanted to post that video.

If there is an insinuation I don't like the vague eye-rolling expression of it because it's just shade and doesn't actually help improve your reads or advance a point.

Well you got the correct message so my method of communication appears to be a success

Several potential messages were mentioned.

Yup.

Are you just being opaque for fun now?

@Gamma

Just don't start the gambler's fallacy argument again. I'll join in and everyone will be sorry.

[Umlaut]

"Franks wifey" is Frank's new IRL fiancée.

[Umlaut]

Are you trying to buddy me with numbers? Because it's working.

[Umlaut]

Gamma, that was a troll post aimed at me.

[Umlaut]

@FireScreamer

What's the thing you've said that you would never say as scum?

I know you may be wary because of the whole not-trust-tell thing but I think you're already in the clear there, so I'd still like to know this.

[Umlaut]

Re. the Brian-FS exchange starting with 470 (on having incompatible scumreads), I see FS' point more than Brian's (even though I'm more sure of Brian being town than FS). We were all rightly on Titus' case last roll for saying basically "since these three people are scum, everyone else voting them must be town." FireScreamer is just

not

doing that.

[Umlaut]

I'm pretty sympathetic to the GC wagon but I'd still rather attract more attention to Comm, given how badly he buckled under that pressure as scum last time.

Alchemist, what are your independent feelings on FireScreamer? I still think he's town, but I'm much more conflicted on that read than I was last game.

[Umlaut]

There's a part of me that wants to say he was modspewed Town but the better half of me is saying mod could have done that for scum too.

I know ThinkBig alerted me (the mod) when a player claimed scum with a partner in another game, even though he knew that player was town, on the basis that it would have been gamethrowing if that player were telling the truth. So he understands the need to take the same action regardless of actual alignment. I'm not 100% sure this is the same thing since FS never actually claimed to be using a trust tell.

[Umlaut]

@GC, PoE by TR'ing others. He is left in a pool that I don't TR (or right now I'm even SR'ing). Which as scum, that would not leave much room to wiggle. When I'm pretty much the only one posting full read lists at the moment, scum!FireScreamer could be seeing it as himself being cornered a bit and after comments last game about what happens when a scum gets in my crosshairs.. He could be worried. Especially if he read any of my past games. Now this is just a theory. But it's a possibility that he is worried that if I gain the town cred he says I don't have, that he will be facing the chopping block if people don't believe whatever he claims.

VOTE: GC - This is a pressure vote for claim. I think GC is town still, but I do think it'd help progress this along to get his claim and push FS if it's believable.

1. Get over yourself, no one is worried about getting in your crosshairs.
   
2. Voting a townread less than halfway through the day as "a pressure vote for claim" is completely ridiculous.
   
3. Why do you want a claim from GC anyway?
   
4. 90% of this quote is self-aggrandizement and self-explanation. You could have cut it down to "VOTE: GC - I'd like a claim from him" and been just as informative. What are you hoping to accomplish with all the fluff?

[Umlaut]

Trying to reread Narna, because I felt like he was chainsawing me when I started questioning CommKnight before but sort of dropped that line of inquiry after my back-and-forth with CommKnight himself. My biggest problem with him is I have no idea what he means by almost anything he's said, and don't really understand what he's thinking despite his being one of the most active players in terms of post count. For instance:

AND I'm locked in.

That is the scummiest shit I've seen. Like it's almost too scummy to be scum!

The only way he avoid the noose is if he's a mason and even that's iffy.

Why did you quote and bold this?

VOTE: Green Canyons

Titus vote and you'll flip town

pedit:.

What does this mean?

Lol, "cool kids." I'M COOL. So just follow me. The cool kids speak proper English. Not the lame "txt spk" kids do or the "1337 5p34k" either. Also that is a life tip for the younger ones playing. If you go to hit on a woman. Intelligence is much more valuable than that shit. (I mean, don't go rocket-sciency intelligence because the average high school girl will not give a rats ass about that and will look at you like you're weird. Even if you speak of Elon Musk. All the kids raving about environmentally friendly and all this liberal stuff. Yet don't even know who Elon Musk is or what he does. My coworkers don't care when I explain it out to them).

ANYWAY, back on topic.

My twon read, everyone!

This seems like a joke but at the same time the record indicates you actually are townreading CommKnight, why?

[Umlaut]

(Also who the hell doesn't know who Elon Musk is?)

[Umlaut]

FoS: Gamma Emerald

[Umlaut]

But that has nothing to do with me voting GC. It's a compromise. Get this done and over with so I can push on FS. I could park my vote on FS but with how town is being, it's not going to produce results till I know we can put him at L1. If you're voting for a lynch without a claim, say so now and I'll lynch your ass today. I always prioritize claim first. Anyone who hammers before a claim is the next day's lynch.

If you're worried about outing PR's then why the hell do you bother voting anyone? You might as well no-lynch and let the PR's go to work. If today is going to progress, GC is going to need to claim, else, town is going to be too stubborn to actually LOOK at FS. (And no Umlaut, your view of FS has been less than helpful, I'm trying to get the actual town to look at FS, not someone who's been defending FS all along).

This is either some seriously poor reading comprehension or some serious word-twisting.

The reason to have someone claim before lynching is as a

precaution

to avoid hitting a PR once you've already decided someone is lynchable. You don't run someone up who you think is town just to make them out their role. Or if you do, you're terrible at Mafia.

[Umlaut]

Why don't you actually explain what you find scummy about FS instead of just patting yourself on the back over how scared he must be of you?

[Umlaut]

Waiting for this is like waiting for Santa to write you back.

All you Santa deniers can just fuck off

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: CommKnight
It's too early to lynch and I think we've gotten what we can out of this wagon. The premature claim is also making me think CK really is just like this, so I probably have to meta-dive him at some point for comparison.

VOTE: Titus
Start playing.

[Umlaut]

Ok. I am. Shannon and Green Crayons were scum.

Are you the third bailing on a bad lynch or what?

Why are Shannon and Green Crayons scum?

No.

[Umlaut]

We have more than half the day left.

It's not the claiming VT, it's the claiming at L-2 that is sounding lynchbait alarms for me. Scum can be lynchbait too but I want to think about it more, and meanwhile there are other things worth pursuing today too.

[Umlaut]

I honestly haven't thought about Dave in a while. Skimming his ISO, I don't see anything I could scumread him for that I didn't incorrectly scumread him for last roll. I agree with him on 138, 250, 370, and while I obviously don't agree with 144 I don't find anything AI about it. The questions he's asked so far seem townish. Some of the reads from his list are a little surprising, namely:

@Dave

Why is Gamma your top townread?

pedit

Half the day left? If you think you found scum, you lynch it. Why screw around for half a day and risk getting a shitty deadline scramble lynch?

I can vote CommKnight whenever I want. Everyone else can vote CommKnight whenever they want. There is no barrier to lynching CommKnight if that's what we decide. I'm not going to rush a decision when there's no call for it.

You don't think scum can do that? Did you not really believe in the points you argued against him before? How am I supposed to feel about you just bailing at the first sight of a non-PR claim and not just think you're PR-shopping now?

Feel whatever you feel about it, don't ask me.

[Umlaut]

I mean, claiming prematurely was part of it, no one

should

do it but I think it's usually town who actually

do.

I was pretty clear before, more clear than I think I probably should have been, that I wanted "more pressure on CommKnight." (I say more clear than I should have been because in my opinion votes that admit they're for pressure are no pressure at all, but that's not the point.) I wanted to see how he would react when it looked like he was the likely lynch. His reaction seems to be telling us we all suck at Mafia and giving us his reads. It's not the best possible response and it's not the towniest possible response, but it gives me pause.

What did

you

make of that post, since you think I got the wrong thing out of it?

[Umlaut]

I feel like there's a difference between what you're saying here:

Half the day left? If you think you found scum, you lynch it.

and what you're saying here:

Maybe he's town, maybe he's scum trying to diffuse his own wagon. At the very least I know he's not a PR and probably a safer lynch than anything else that's going to be pushed today.

How confident are you that CommKnight is scum?

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: CommKnight
It's too early to lynch and I think we've gotten what we can out of this wagon.

Gotten what we can? Are you claim collecting?

Why does everyone think this is about the claim.

[Umlaut]

What is it about, then?

We've gotten his response to high pressure and an idea of who does and doesn't support the wagon and why, which is enough to build reads on, and leaving my vote parked there for the next week isn't useful.

[Umlaut]

I'm not voting CommKnight.

Yeah, I noticed you weren't.

Why not?

[Umlaut]

Pagetop

Official Vote Count

Gamma Emerald

(3): FireScreamer, shannon, Narna

Titus

(2): davesaz, Umlaut

FireScreamer

(2): FrankJaeger, CommKnight

Green Crayons

(2): Titus, Alchemist21

RoryMK

(2): Gamma Emerald, Brian Skies

Alchemist21

(1): Green Crayons

CommKnight

(1): RoryMK

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

Mod Note

: Thanks for the top!

[Umlaut]

There is no good case d1 barring someone planning to murder the IC and even that fails sometimes.

[Umlaut]

I've never felt buddied by Rory, where is this coming from?

[Umlaut]

Is it just because he voted my scumread?

[Umlaut]

I mean if he is he's not doing a good job, I don't feel especially friendly toward him and I've had him as pretty much "meh, null" all day.

[Umlaut]

I've never felt buddied by Rory, where is this coming from?

I asked you first.

[Umlaut]

I just think he's scummy and he's townreading you (and you're the only other person I believe he's mentioned as a townread up until now).

The way you expressed it made me think you were using the buddying as an additional reason to scumread him. You can't use the judgment that he's scummy as reason to think he's buddying, and then use the judgment that he's buddying as an additional reason to find him scummy. Or you can, but it's the road to confbias and tunneling.

Why do you feel the need to defend someone from a buddying accusation?

I think if it involves me I should have some insight into it. I'm not so arrogant as to think I can always tell when someone is manipulating me, but I feel like I should at least

notice

the person when that happens.

I'll argue with any accusation against anyone if I don't understand it.

[Umlaut]

^Umlaut, what're your thoughts on this?

The asking about daytalk is weird, I have no idea why Rory would think that. I guess it's worth pursuing but it's not something to hang a case on by itself.

Saying his townread on you "feels disingenuous" isn't really useful by itself. What feels disingenuous about it?

[Umlaut]

I could see 515 and 849 as buddying attempts since they're appealing to your ego by calling you a strong player, but I think there's no real barrier to them being genuine. I loved the way you were playing the game too as of 515, and 849 is not exactly a surprising sentiment either: the players who were townreading CommKnight last game were mostly doing it on the basis that he was picking difficult fights with highly active, highly townread players.

336 is kind of confusingly phrased, because "I have a feeling he will eventually catch scum or get killed" is not really a reason to townread someone. I have an idea of what this actually meant but I'd rather hear Rory's explanation first.

I don't think 859 is really indicative of anything except Rory's stated reads on the two of you.

[Umlaut]

Brian asked for my opinion on his reasons for suspecting him.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Umlaut]

336 is kind of confusingly phrased, because "I have a feeling he will eventually catch scum or get killed" is not really a reason to townread someone. I have an idea of what this actually meant but I'd rather hear Rory's explanation first.

I'm not really sure what needs explaining here?

You said "I'm going to start townreading Brian Skies. I feel like he will eventually catch scum or be killed. Good enough reason for now."

How is the second sentence a

reason

to townread someone?

[Umlaut]

Explain why in depth.

Why does nobody in this town want to actually justify anything they do.

Because I think he's coming out poorly in his interactions with you here and hasn't satisfactorily answered anything you're asking.

pedit

Gamma, thanks for asking because the answer is no. I know what I think Rory means, I want to know what Rory thinks he means.

[Umlaut]

CommKnight, can you articulate why your read on me is softening?

[Umlaut]

Brian, what are your feelings on Titus' play? I'm not necessarily asking for a read, just whether you find it pro-town or think you understand her motivations.

[Umlaut]

The asking about daytalk is weird, I have no idea why Rory would think that. I guess it's worth pursuing but it's not something to hang a case on by itself.

I never play open games and I am a big fan of daytalk. I didn't realize open games don't allow daytalk, or at least this setup doesn't.
That's my explanation, for what it's worth.

It occurred to me that this was verifiable, so I checked.

Spoiler: PolitiFact ranks this statement "Mostly True"

A review of Radja's topic list shows he played in only a single Open Queue game (604), it was in 2015, and he replaced out during early Day 1. Under his prior account, StubbsKVM, he played in five Open Queue games (505, 508, 512, 522, 603).

Only one of these six games (512) was C9++, it was nearly four years ago, and he replaced out of that game during Day 1 as well. It did not have daytalk, but Stubbs was town-aligned and could plausibly not have realized this.

I think the statement "I never play open games" is honest and substantially true given this record.

I expected it to be true, but it was worth taking a look anyway.

What confuses me is what the statement "I am a big fan of daytalk" has to do with anticipating daytalk in this game. In general most games don't have daytalk, and being a fan of something doesn't make it more likely unless you're the mod.

[Umlaut]

What I mean is, because I love daytalk myself, I kind of assume others do too and I expect there to be daytalk in every game. If that makes sense?
How did you find my old account?

I mean it doesn't

really

make sense but I don't especially want to press the point.

I happened to run into your "Retiring my main" topic while scanning Radja's post history.

[Umlaut]

336 is kind of confusingly phrased, because "I have a feeling he will eventually catch scum or get killed" is not really a reason to townread someone. I have an idea of what this actually meant but I'd rather hear Rory's explanation first.

I'm not really sure what needs explaining here?

You said "I'm going to start townreading Brian Skies. I feel like he will eventually catch scum or be killed. Good enough reason for now."

How is the second sentence a

reason

to townread someone?

it's not a reason, it's more of a followup on what was a small townread at the time. I still feel like he will either find scum or get killed. He's the type of player I wouldn't want to have around as scum.

So what is a "good enough reason for now"?

[Umlaut]

Well at this point if FS flips red, I think we'd have quite a few associates to look at.

Fs might be scum, might be lynchbait.

Titus can you explain those pls.

Vote histories.

I could swap out Umlaut for FS though.

I just want A case, good is optional

My case is the votes speak to me. The VCs suggest CommKnight town, shannon scum.

FireStarter's vote pattern is different.

GC reasonless got sheeps but Shannon didn't. GC and CommKnight has high odds of scum but CommKnight town. So GC has conflicting info. Umlaut votes after CommKnight not lynchable.

Pretty much stuff like that is my case.

Oh Firescreamer has a wagon.

VOTE: FireScreamer

Its week 1 day 1. Every wagon stalls out.

You keep getting defensive

and no, not every wagon stalls out.

Titus,

The sentences in boldface make up your complete stated thoughts on FireScreamer. In summary:

1. He might be scum, might be lynchbait
   
2. His vote pattern is different
   
3. He has a wagon
   
4. He keeps getting defensive

1 isn't a reason to vote FireScreamer.
3 isn't a reason to vote FireScreamer.
2 is possibly a reason to vote FireScreamer, but it's so vague it could mean anything.
4 is pretty contrived in the first place, and aside from that, arbitrarily declaring someone scum and then saying "You're being defensive" when they respond is really ugly.

Regardless of what you say to the contrary it's obvious that you're being deliberately opaque and stonewalling questions. If you continue like this I'm strongly considering pushing a policy lynch just because letting scum get away with such a lazy tactic would be unforgivable. I don't care if you make a case or sheep a case, but just pretending to participate and saying "the votes talk to me" while declining to translate for anyone else is anti-town and you know it.

pedit

I've pressed Submit about six times now, not reading until this goes through.

[Umlaut]

Hi, FireBringer. I'm completely incapable of reading you so I'm just going to believe whatever everyone else says.

[Umlaut]

He's scum, Umlaut get him

Whatever you say, boss!

VOTE: FireBringer

[Umlaut]

FB, why did your predecessor claim so early?

[Umlaut]

Well, obv-soft, not claim

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

pedit

I wanted to see if FB would back up the mason claim since by default he's probably not a mason.

[Umlaut]

To be more clear: the odds that (a) there's a masonry, and (b) it includes some specific player, are low enough that if FireBringer's answer was "yeah, I'm a mason" it would effectively be a scumclaim.

It wasn't likely to work but it was worth a shot.

[Umlaut]

Why arn't you suddenly asking everyone in the thread that they are masons then? It's just rolefishing and lying to someone about what their slot already claimed is even worse rolefishing.

It's cool that you answered your own question here. Asking everyone if they were a mason

would

be rolefishing.

This was a unique circumstance and I don't see how you can't understand what I was trying to do.

[Umlaut]

@Brian

Thanks for answering. I was asking because I can't understand why anyone would be willing to vote on Titus' say-so right now. It sounds like you're saying it doesn't have much to do with Titus at all.

What do you find confusing about my test on Firebringer?

@FireScreamer

I think it's time to accept that Titus is not going to make herself any more transparent, at least not today. We can drop it or we can wagon her, but if there's a third option I haven't thought of it.

[Umlaut]

First of all, I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. And if it is what I think it is, then why are you using a reaction test on someone based on probability after spending the vast majority of this game getting on CK's case about it? It's incredibly hypocritical.

I got on CK's case because his math was just incorrect as a matter of fact, not because using probability is bad. I actually spent last roll posting detailed tables of probabilities after every PR claim/reveal, and was planning to do that again once we actually had some.

• A priori
  a player is about eight times more likely to be scum than they are to be a mason.
  
• If FB had seriously confirmed the mason "claim," these would be the only two possibilities with any significant likelihood.
  
• Therefore that claim alone would have made FB scum with 8:1 odds.
  
• This reasoning wouldn't work in just any case, because normally masons would have a far higher base rate for claiming mason than scum would.
  
• However,
  in this special case,
  FB would be about equally likely to do so in either case, so this reasoning
  does
  work.

I think this was an

excellent

reaction test even if it was inconclusive, and I would use it again.

[Umlaut]

Why is Gamma Emerald a wagon? Last I remember I saw more genuine attempt to solve from him than from anyone else.

I realize you're working in chronological order, but the best way to find an answer to this is just to read the segment of the game during which the wagon built up. Once you get to that I'd appreciate your thoughts on the cases presented.

[Umlaut]

Dave, I could likely be sold on Titus but there are two things stopping me:

1. I've never played with Titus in this mode and can't pattern-match what she's doing to any particular scum MO. You seem to have more experience there so maybe you can point me to relevant examples of Titus' use and misuse of VCA.
   
2. I was certain she was scum last roll and I was completely wrong. Her play is obviously very
   different
   this time, and the circumstances are different too (she's not death-tunneling me this time for one), but all the same I'd really like to hear more from players who correctly townread Titus last game. (My first choice would be Narna except I'm not really townreading him.)

[Umlaut]

Oh, and 3. I just imagine it will be an extremely hard wagon to push.

[Umlaut]

Oh, and 3. I just imagine it will be an extremely hard wagon to push.

Why is this a concern?

This is a fair question. It really shouldn't be but I'm just going "ugh" at the thought of beating my head against that particular wall.

[Umlaut]

Gamma, who on your wagon do you think is scum?

[Umlaut]

Way behind on everything.

If I post here during the next 16 hours you should all yell at me to get back to work.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald

Will reconsider this when I get back.

[Umlaut]

I'm not sure what to make of 1255. There is at least one thing blatantly wrong with it, but I'm not sure what shannon's intent was.
FireScreamer's subsequent rapid ping pong voting is also quite interesting. Panic much?

I think I know the thing that's blatantly wrong with it, but I notice you didn't say yourself what it was. Is there a reason you don't want it said out loud?

Re. the ping-pong voting I'm actually townreading that. What's panic-indicative about it? Why would scum!FireScreamer publicly vacillate between his strongest counterwagon and a totally new vote, and then settle on the latter?

Gamma, who on your wagon do you think is scum?

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald

Will reconsider this when I get back.

this is nasty
VOTE: Umlaut

This is a really lame basis for suspicion—like, who would actually think they could dodge a scumread by unvoting you before you could answer—but it's so lame I kind of think it's town?

Need to reread, still kind of busy. I have a big weekend of nothing lined up so I'll have time.

[Umlaut]

o/ Hey, Almost.

VOTE: CommKnight
I've been watching him ever since I unvoted him.

CommKnight started arguing that I was scum as soon as I questioned something he said. (He had me as scum in his readlist before that, but he didn't actually argue it.)

Spoiler: CommKnight's read on me for the first half of the day

{FrankJaeger, Brian Skies, Narna}
{Alchemist, Green Crayons}
{davesaz, Titus, shannon, RoryMK, Necta}
{Umlaut, FireScreamer}

My blocs went: Not lynching, slight-TR, Neutral, Suspicious.

As you can see, Umlaut falls on that bloc very easily.
[...]
Either way, I'd be willing to roll the dice on either FireScreamer or Umlaut. It's a hunch, but it's more than likely a right one and they're gonna rip on me after the game for "getting lucky" if I'm correct. But we'll see.

LOL, I'm gonna go ahead and say I'm on the right track here. Already Umlaut is trying to make associations and GC doesn't like the fact I won't lynch the other two that were mafia last round DAY 1. (All other days are open season, but Day 1, I'm not lynching them. If you think that's a smart move, I may need to teach you on how to play with probabilities as town). You can hate me all you want, but the numbers don't lie. My preference is in the Umlaut/FS duo today.

@GC, if you're paranoid about being buddied. Look at Umlaut's question to you about a Narna and me duo. Like legit. He's trying to get on your good side. Also for being the math guy, he's not even looking at the numbers for this. Just sucking up to you to mislynch D1.

@Dave, It's a pretty simple tier. Not lynch D1 is just my gamble of them not rolling scum again. The TR's are TR's. Neutral, I got nothing on. Honestly the Umlaut/FS duo I'm interested in. Also Umlaut even admitted he's SR'ing all the ones who voted him last game.

- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.
- Instead of building said case on them, you worry about defending FS. Which honestly started as a simple SR as scummy behaviour. But mixed with your defense of him. I'm willing to bet more on there being one scum in the two of you if you aren't both scum.

If you don't like my SR of yourself or FS, feel free to make a case for something. But worrying about me providing burden of proof (when there is none currently for anyone) is itself a fallacy. In fact, your entire thing and vote on me is that I don't have a solid case to vote FS. (Which shouldn't worry you unless you somehow know for certain he is town). Which I could argue the same back against you both. You got no real case. Just votes on me for voting FS and suspecting him. Which IS an OMGUS vote.

Note that while the "defending FS" accusation is in here, it's not the only one he lobbed. He consistently presented himself as having a suspicion of me that grew into a confident scumread based on my posting and behavior. He maintained this position straight through through 717.

In case I'm lynched, (Claiming now: VT) calling it now.

Town: GC, Brian Skies, shannon, Narna, Alchemist, Gamma Emerald, FrankJaeger
Mafia: FS, Umlaut (and if three, Titus).
SK: davesaz or RoryMK (If no SK, both are more than likely town).

In 719, I unvoted him. Most of my posting immediately after was responding to three people questioning my unvote and finding it various degrees of scummy.

This is CommKnight's next mention of me:

Umlaut I am having doubts about. I mean I still think he could be scum, but not as confident as I was before.

He never seriously pushed on me again, upgraded me to "scum lean" in his next readlist, and has shown no interest in trying to sort me since. What happened to all his suspicions from before? All he seems to have left by 1120 is that I along with FS have "played in a way to keep me from sounding credible."

(Incidentally, 1120 also betrays a survivalist attitude, focusing on the idea of a scum conspiracy to get him lynched when there is

literally no one voting him any more.

)

Countering this is the fact that he is still pushing hard to lynch FS even though FS has given him a townread now. Which... say, why is he pushing to lynch FS?

Comm can you lay out why you actually think I am scum again?

CommKnight never answered this.

There were good reasons for the CommKnight wagon:

• using bad logic that just happened to clear him;
  
• more interested in justifying his reads than explaining them;
  
• talking in circles, nitpicking, and otherwise evading direct questions;
  
• trying to vote a townread (Green Crayons) up to a claim for unconvincing reasons.

I found his claim post townish enough to back off and think about it some more. I've thought about it some more. I think he's scum.

[Umlaut]

Why Almost?

[Umlaut]

1. Why are we all voting davesaz?
   
2. Why are we all not voting CommKnight?
   
3. Re. how to approach claims like this: assuming the game isn't mod errored again, I don't think we can really generalize from what happened last time. The only one who "got away with" claiming one-shot was Comm, and that was a doc claim.

[Umlaut]

Titus, didn't you say last roll that one-shot RB claim was an autolynch?

[Umlaut]

Why aren't you looking at the 1-shot RB as much anyway? It's definitely possible to have, but you NOT saying much about it after last game? Seems odd for you.

Haven't been at a real computer. I can give numbers once I am.

[Umlaut]

@Alchemist, well my reads list is currently like this.

TR: Firebringer, Alchemist, Brian Skies, Gamma Emerald and Narna.
TL: Green Crayons
Neutral: daves and Titus
SL: RoryMK, Umlaut and shannon
SR: FireScreamer

Why did you stop townreading Firebringer?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Titus

Could do this since no one's listening to me on Comm anyway.

[Umlaut]

Best wishes, TB.

Thanks!

@Narna: I don't think lynching Gamma today is the best plan and if there's a case on Dave I haven't seen it.

[Umlaut]

I'm not at all convinced that CommKnight is town. I'm torn between his reads making some sense vs. the early attempt to take himself off the table for bad logic.

I don't think "taking himself off the table for bad logic" is

by itself

a strong basis for a scumread. Lots of people commit the gambler's fallacy whether or not it happens to make them look good.

More suspicious is painting attempts to point out the bad logic with defending the people it would implicate or throwing shade on the people it would clear. CommKnight did both.

[Umlaut]

MATH POST AHOY

We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.

Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:

• The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
  
• If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
  
• There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
  
• I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
  
• Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that
  especially
  corroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)

Conditional on the truth of Gamma's claim, these are the multiplicity distributions for each letter:

Spoiler: Here be tables

T count	Prob
0	1.960%
1	11.216%
2	26.472%
3	32.686%
4	21.517%
5	6.148%

C count	Prob
0	40.194%
1	39.968%
2	16.151%
3	3.323%
4	0.349%
5	0.015%

D count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

V count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

M count	Prob
0	87.812%
2	12.103%
4	0.084%
5	0.002%

B count	Prob
2	99.457%
4+	0.543%

Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:

• The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
  
• The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
  
• The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.

[Umlaut]

Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.

That's wrong for at least three reasons:

• What you gave is the probability that at least the
  first
  two letters are BB (or the 2nd and 5th, or some other specific choice of two), not that
  any
  two letters are BB.
  
• There is no 1-shot RB if there are exactly three Bs, so we have to do extra work to exclude that possibility.
  
• The absence of any town PR makes others more likely, so in particular knowing there's no IC makes 1-shot RB more likely.

I don't know if there's a clean, compact way to show the work on this; the program I'm using just sums over all

*checks*

512 possible setups that lack an IC.

[Umlaut]

Didn't notice we were doing the mass RB claim. I think it was a bad idea last game, I think it's a bad idea this game, and I'm kind of annoyed that we started without waiting for any kind of consensus. I'll participate if everyone continues to insist, but first let me actually make the case against it.

The premise is that we can clear Gamma or condemn him based on the existence of a roleblocker, and this is worth outing him if there is one. However:

• Getting a claim only means there is a full blocker
  or
  a scumbuddy willing to all-in with Gamma.
  
• Suppose we lynch Gamma. Even if he flips green, this doesn't verify the full RB claimant; conversely, even if he flips red, that doesn't mean the full RB claimant is lying.
  
• Suppose we lynch the full RB claimant. If they flip green, this
  still
  doesn't clear Gamma.

So the only way this proves anything is if either

• There is no roleblocker
  and
  no scumbuddy willing to join in, or
  
• Someone claims full RB and then
  we lynch them and they flip red
  .

The rest of the time it's just a great way to out PRs. It seems like most people want to lynch Gamma tomorrow regardless, so why out another PR first?

can you tell me the odds of BB if either 1 or 2 other non B letters are known.

It depends on the letter.

For non-RB roles nailing down one letter

• one-shot cop (C): 4.13%
  
• one-shot vigilante (V): 3.92%
  
• full doctor (D): 3.66%

For non-RB roles nailing down two letters

• full cop (CC): 2.90%
  
• 1-shot doctor (DD): 2.89%
  
• full vigilante (VV): 2.73%
  
• mason in a masonry of two (MM): 2.60%

(Again, these all factor in our current knowledge that there is no IC)

[Umlaut]

Brian, I don't find Rory's activity level alignment-indicative at all for him. Speaking as someone who's run a few games in Radja's queue, there are frequently long waits for listmod action there, suggesting that being away from the site for extended periods is his usual MO.

I know that's not the only thing you've said about him, but it's worth responding to since you brought it up.

[Umlaut]

Okay, going from "Titus is a good lynch" to "Titus is probable scum."

She's voting her townread after saying it was stupid to lynch him today and his claim was solid, because

I don't see an rb claim yet. I am starting to think I am wrong on Gamma, but his play is so obvtown.

That's a pretty weird reason to turn around completely, especially given that people are

explicitly

not claiming and Titus herself said she'd rather just hurry up and lynch Dave.

Hey, I wonder if the most recent VC can help us figure out what changed her mind.

Official Vote Count

Titus

(4): Almost50, Umlaut, davesaz, Brian Skies

Gamma Emerald

(4): RoryMK, Alchemist21, Narna, FireScreamer

davesaz

(2): Gamma Emerald, Titus

Almost50

(1): Firebringer

Alchemist21

(1): Green Crayons

Firebringer

(1): CommKnight

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

[Umlaut]

Read the last line of that again too.

2.5 days until deadline. So yeah, the VC is a factor.

I predicted this response.

Survival voting is all well and good.

There is a big difference between saying "VOTE: Gamma, better him than me," and saying "VOTE: Gamma, I changed my mind and decided he was scum at the most convenient possible moment."

[Umlaut]

Titus is arguing in the post above yours that we should lynch Gamma even in the presence of a full RB claim.

[Umlaut]

Come to think of it, she's doing that while also saying the full RB

should

claim, which is completely pointless if she wants to lynch Gamma anyway.

[Umlaut]

The Gamma wagon has so much resistance and counterwagoning when worst case we get an IC out of the deal. Gamma is scum.

What's with this talk about the IC?? Isn't the IC -if existent- supposed to be mod-confirmed at the start of the day??

They're not talking about a literal IC, they're saying if only one person claimed RB, and then Gamma flipped one-shot RB, that claim would be confirmed true (since one-shot RB implies the existence of an RB). So the RB could be thought of as an innocent child in a way.

[Umlaut]

Titus says all of these things simultaneously:

• the lack of an RB claim shows Gamma is probably guilty;
  
• if the RB does claim, we should flip Gamma anyway to confirm the full RB as town; and
  
• the RB should claim, to save Gamma.

We went through

this exact scenario

last roll, and it culminated in Titus telling me I should self-hammer to

prevent

the full RB from claiming if I was town. I don't know how she forgot that so quickly.

[Umlaut]

Just checked via the auto VC and yeah, Gamma is hammered.

That was terrible. We had two days left and most of the people voting Gamma still wanted to get an RB claim. I didn't, but I'm looking closely at people who said they did and yet have no complaint about this.

[Umlaut]

Survivalism isn't a scumtell.

I already answered this point, naked survivalism isn't a scumtell but disguising survivalism behind "I changed my mind" is.

[Umlaut]

We had two days left and most of the people voting Gamma still wanted to get an RB claim. I didn't, but I'm looking closely at people who said they did and yet have no complaint about this.

Looking at FS in particular for this. Titus at least questioned the motives for the hammer, FS was all about the benefits of getting a claim but is really blasé about Brian jumping the gun.

[Umlaut]

Fair enough, point retracted.

[Umlaut]

It's not "delaying a lynch" if you don't actually want to lynch the person

[Umlaut]

And scum would love to know whether he's using his shot for reasons Narna already explained (scum no-killing to potentially frame a townie).

Someone hypothesizes this about once every other game I'm in, and I'm amazed that anyone takes it seriously. The object of the game for scum is to get to lylo. If they can kill someone they're going to do it, absent a reason to think it will get one of them caught.

Even if hypothetically Gamma planning to block had enticed scum to no-kill, getting scum to no-kill would be a win for us. If you thought that was a likely outcome you should have been looking for a way to make that happen.

[Umlaut]

Numbers post incoming tonight.

Almost50, why did you ask last twilight who Alchemist would hypovig, in 1916?

[Umlaut]

Oh yeah and

VOTE: CommKnight

I already wanted him yesterday, the Gamma flip only makes it worse.

[Umlaut]

@Mod V/LA for let's say two days, will extend if need be.

Having home connectivity issues and phone stopped working all at once.

[Umlaut]

Looks like I'm back online. And welcome back, ThinkBig!

Haven't read yet, but here's some more of that number crap.

Probabilistic setup spec

The numbers below are based on the following things we know:

• There is no innocent child.
  
• There
  is
  was a Mafia roleblocker, and therefore three Mafia.
  
• There
  is
  was a full cop.

...and the following conservative assumptions:

• There is no one-shot roleblocker.
  
• There is at most one non-Mafia killing role.
  
• If there is a non-Mafia killing role, there is also a doctor or roleblocker.

This still leaves some 87 possible setups, so I'm not going to list them all, just give summary data.

Total Town PRs	Prob
2	32.70%
3	32.90%
4	29.26%
5	4.28%
6	0.86%

Spoiler: Per-letter tables

T count	Prob
0	2.20%
1	4.74%
2	37.47%
3	22.89%
4	32.70%

C count	Prob
2	63.67%
3	32.36%
4	3.14%
5	0.81%
6+	0.01%

D count	Prob
0	29.63%
1	51.57%
2	16.52%
3	2.09%
4	0.18%
5	0.01%

V count	Prob
0	78.81%
1	14.68%
2	6.50%

M count	Prob
0	88.16%
2	11.78%
4	0.05%
5	0.01%

B count	Prob
0	64.03%
1	35.66%
3	0.31%

Some conclusions:

• There are 2-6 town PRs including Alchemist; expected number is 3.08; 95% chance there are no more than 4.
  
• Cops:
  33% chance of one-shot, 4% second full cop, <1% more than two.
  
• Doctors:
  70% chance of at least one full, 17% one-shot, 2% two full, <1% more than two.
  
• Vigilantes:
  15% chance of one-shot, 6% full.
  
• Masons:
  12% chance of two, <1% more than two.
  
• Roleblockers:
  36% chance of one, <1% more than one.
  
• Scum:
  44% chance of godfather, 28% chance of serial killer.

These numbers aren't perfect -- we have information that makes SK, vig, and RB less likely. But just how much less likely is hard to quantify since that information is noisy.

[Umlaut]

I don't think Titus is likely scum. It's easy to say "scum can bus," but it really feels like there were better options for scum!Titus in this case. Titus had already given her reasons to keep her vote on Dave until day's end, and her meta would excuse her for being stubborn in her reads. I don't think there was ever a point at which the Gamma lynch was a foregone conclusion, so increasing the risk of his lynch wasn't really worth the towncred if she's scum.

If there was scum on that wagon, it's probably Brian. His total meltdown over what amounts to not being declared conftown for hammering is just unbelievable. The replace-out could come from either alignment but the touchiness itself is something I don't understand if he's town. I'm pretty much just saying what GC said in 1988, but it's worth saying twice.

Oh yeah and

VOTE: CommKnight

I already wanted him yesterday, the Gamma flip only makes it worse.

explain, I blacked out towards the end of last phase and really nodt want to reread,

Well, FireScreamer and Rory have already made good cases here -- I could just point you back to 1370 where I pointed out his behavior toward me since his wagon died down. I also note that he's now voting me even though all his problems with me before were based on associatives with FS, who he seems to think is neutral-to-townlean now.

Re. Almost50:
Softing power last night and then claiming VT first thing in the morning is actually pretty town (though I understand Almost50 is a fakeclaim magician so I'm a bit wary of this). That said, I have no idea why he's suddenly talking about masons and I don't love his play in general. I've never played with town!Almost so I don't know what to expect from there; in our first game together, the town overcorrected for his tone naturally seeming scummy and nearly failed to realize he actually was pretty scummy.

Re. Dave:
I could believe he was scum if someone would make a case, but unless I'm forgetting something I haven't seen one. The only thing he has going against him is the push on Titus, and Titus was being so obstructionist yesterday that I can't really fault anyone for pushing there.

Re. Rory:

To be honest, I didn't completely catch up on the game yet, because I thought I might get vigged and didn't want to read 30+ pages to find out I was dead.

I haven't been scumreading the inactivity in general but this excuse really pings me for some reason. That said, I like the two followup posts.

Also, Rory mentions me:

It is interesting to note that out of the 5 people on the original wagon, Umlaut wasn't part of the actual lynch.

That's true, I left the wagon to try and push another and then never went back on after he claimed.

Regarding the object-level issue of lynching Gamma, at this point I'm sort of torn between saying that waiting was the right call and we just lucked out, and feeling dumb for trying to correct people after they get the right answer.

[Umlaut]

@Umlaut. Since you want me to vote elsewhere, make a case for me to vote elsewhere. I townread/lean daves and Almost. That leaves you, FB and the Gamma wagon.

So tell me Umlaut, who's scum? I can tell you I'm not, so who is it? You're so dead set on me you'll be disappointed when you're wrong (though I'm sure there'll be an excuse 'well he was scummy'). But right now, pretend you got the knowledge I'm town ahead of time, who's scum? Look at the wagon on me right now and know that when I flip green you'll have to look at it again.

I don't really care if you vote me or not. I care if you think I'm scum, but I'm pretty sure you don't.

I could believe Almost or davesaz as scum on Titus' wagon. If I had to choose one to lynch now I'd go with davesaz, because I don't feel like I'm going to do any better at reading him over time.

It also occurs to me I don't really have a read on Firebringer. Working on that in a bit.

[Umlaut]

Dave, why shoot Brian Skies over Titus? You've been saying she's scum for two days now.

[Umlaut]

I did see that, what about it?

Though looking at it again I have to wonder why Titus would get pissy at Dave for shooting the person she wanted dead next.

[Umlaut]

Dave, did you say whether you're 1-shot or unlimited-shot vig?

[Umlaut]

Cloud, you're either scum or in the way of lynching scum and frankly, I don't care. I want A50 or Davesaz but I will settle for you. Especially when you wall in a manner that straight up dodges my question.

Brian is town, so his replacement will be too.

VOTE: CommKnight

No more dodging questions. We lynch A50 or Davesaz tomorrow. Not engaging in a yelling match.

What happened to take him out of your lynchpool?

[Umlaut]

Unless if someone else claims a non-mason PR, dave shouldn't claim 1 shot or unlimited.

Why not? It forces him to commit to a claim that can likely be disproven later if it's false.

I'm working on a math post but want to let the day play out for a bit first.

[Umlaut]

did Titus just claim scum?

How's that?

[Umlaut]

She's yelling at the vig for not shooting dave and then votes dave.

I'm very interested to see what reasoning she has there.

I think I see a potential town explanation for this but I'm not going to volunteer it.

She also knew which one wasn't the scum kill.

This is a lot more concerning actually.

[Umlaut]

Why not? It forces him to commit to a claim that can likely be disproven later if it's false.

dave is either SK or vig. Why give scum knowledge today about whether dave has another kill in him to work off of tonight?

Suppose Dave is SK.

• Claiming one-shot ties his hands; he can never kill again.
  
• Claiming unlimited-shot opens him up to a possible counterclaim. Certain PRs are possible if he's SK but not if he's full vig.

I mean, it's not

that

important (if he's SK we'll probably figure that out anyway) but it's useful to town, and doesn't seem especially useful to scum.

[Umlaut]

Um, if Titus doesn't know Dave claimed vig that's

another

knowledge slip, since she immediately attributed the kill to a vig.

[Umlaut]

someone know knows a shit about this setup, can scum deduce via whatever roles they have whether dave (assuming he's telling the truth) is a single or multi-shot vig?

I'll figure this out when I get home, but I don't think so since scum can't distinguish in the 0-2 T range.

[Umlaut]

someone know knows a shit about this setup, can scum deduce via whatever roles they have whether dave (assuming he's telling the truth) is a single or multi-shot vig?

I'll figure this out when I get home, but I don't think so since scum can't distinguish in the 0-2 T range.

Okay, figured it out.

There is only one possible setup in which mafia have any better knowledge than we do about Dave's role, and that's TTTCCMM. In this setup:

• there are no more unknown PRs;
  
• Dave is a serial killer;
  
• the mafia knows the exact setup.

Under any of the sixteen other possible setups, the Mafia can't rule anything out.

On paper TTTCCMM is actually the single most probable setup (~44%), but it implies a serial killer who decided not to kill n1, which I think is itself pretty unlikely.

[Umlaut]

Need to reread Titus. As of yesterday I felt I'd ruled her out as scum, so I need to remind myself why I did that so I can decide if it was a good reason.

[Umlaut]

Addendum to 2198: I used but didn't explicitly state the assumption that there aren't two killing roles. If you drop that assumption, everything is the same except that TTTCCMM is less probable (~35%) and there are five more possible setups.

[Umlaut]

You've left out both shooting the same target or a doctor heal.

I was explicitly talking about a setup in which there is no doctor. (You're right that I left out the possibility someone was double-targeted.)

We can prove me wrong or not. You can pretend my familiarity with this setup is knowledge slips or not. I watch open setups and I watch people. We can do this dance again, or you can save yourself a headache and sheep me.

Well, I do love to dance.

VOTE: Titus

Looking back, the only reason I thought Titus couldn't be scum was that she was on the Gamma lynch, but I can't give infinite credit for that. The way she thought MathSkies was absolutely, unquestionably a vig shot up until she was reminded it was Dave, and then said "never mind it's SK," makes it seem like she's more interested in getting Dave roped than she is in updating on the evidence. And the idea that she knew it was a vig shot even while complaining that it was a bad shot is more than I'm willing to swallow.

Also, everyone ignore Titus' massclaim suggestion. There are excellent reasons to avoid further role claims until Dave has confirmed or disconfirmed that he has more shots. This is independent of her alignment: Titus pushed a premature and harmful massclaim as town in my very first game on MS, so her appeals to self-expertise here mean nothing to me.

[Umlaut]

Me, davesaz, RoryMK, Almost50.

I am not thrilled with the composition of this wagon.

Not unvoting but let's at least give everyone else a chance to weigh in before anyone hammers.

[Umlaut]

I'll have you know that Titus' persistence to include me in every possible scum team is pinging me hard. She is one of the very few who can read through me, and she knows my play as either alignment. She has seen the good and the bad in my play as either alignment, and there's NO WAY she is misreading me here.

So, I'll make you all an offer you can't refuse (I think): LYNCH ME. When I do flip Town, lynch Titus + Narna. That's the scum team I see right now, with Titus being the GF (and the thus the deviation from her meta of not bussing). If the game still doesn't end THEN dave is a SK. (If he is a full Vig he should shoot in Titus/Narna tonight).

I think Gamma claiming a 1-shot RB was to out the RB if any. It helped scum a LOT to decide which setup this might be. I'm not sure if they already identified the Cop or if it was a strike of luck.

Can you do this, please?

I really don't understand how you are coming to most of these conclusions.

Why do you think Titus is GF and Narna a goon, and not the other way around?
Why do you suspect Narna in the first place?
What does Titus or Narna's alignment have to do with Dave's?

Meta question for others: I've seen Almost make the "lynch me" offer as scum. Has anyone seen him do it as town?

[Umlaut]

Hmph, was I wrong on you Rory? Either you or Umlaut.

This has been nothing but posturing from you both.

Also, I think my entire wagon minus Rory is those not voting Gamma. (Needs verifying)

If I needed more confirmation that Titus' suspect list is just a list of people who scumread her, this is it.

[Umlaut]

Meta question for others: I've seen Almost make the "lynch me" offer as scum. Has anyone seen him do it as town?

I actually have a second question, is Almost the sort of player who's willing to tell direct lies as town?

pedit

I can't really see me being unconvincable here.

[Umlaut]

ThinkBig, I'm digging the "link to the votes" thing in the new VC.

[Umlaut]

I actually have a second question, is Almost the sort of player who's willing to tell direct lies as town?

As for the 2nd Q: YES. HELL YES. The answer is DEFINITELY YES.

Spoiler:

In fact I lie much more when I'm Town than I do when I'm scum. I claimed PGO on D1 in Gistou when I was actually a Town Vig. I claimed a I shot Tywin in Timeshift when I was also Town Vig but was out of ammo. I claimed I was BP in DBZ-A when I wasn't. The three fake claims resulted in: me end-gaming and a Town win, Tywin obv!Scumming as the last living one of the team, and ABR fake-claiming he shot me thus uncovering himself as the SK (he had been faking Town Vig). All 3 games ended in Town wins.

Oh, and -if you wish- you could count me "confirming" both BTD & N_M as scum when I was just a Fruit Vendor in Daykess Mafia towards my lies as Town too.

Okay, I think Almost is town then which makes me feel better about the wagon.

Titus:

Assume you're town. What is the motivation for sk!davesaz to stab MathSkies over you?

[Umlaut]

Maybe we can finally get through a day in this game without a quickhammer.

Re. setup stuff:
TTCCVMM is by far the most likely setup (~51.5%). However, the next

three

most likely setups (combined probability of ~30.3%) are TCCDMM#, with a serial killer, a doctor, and one more PR.

There's also the possibility that Dave is a full vig inadvertently stopped by a doc/RB.

We should claim today. I propose Dave goes first, then popcorn.

Almost, why would you ever make a promise to vote yourself in mylo as town?

Also, how did you figure out there were masons on Day 1?

[Umlaut]

I don't know which I like less, Almost50 agreeing to something that would be gamethrowing as town, or Firebringer getting Almost to agree to something that would be gamethrowing as town.

[Umlaut]

So you think agreeing to that is scummy in the first place?

[Umlaut]

Like read this, he agreed to it. Then says I am scum for something he agreed to do.

I don't understand how this is contradictory.

[Umlaut]

Almost, seriously, stop voting yourself if you're town.

(If you're scum, keep it up!)

[Umlaut]

Only semi-available this weekend.

I don't know if scum!Almost would soft power on day 1 "to bait the night kill" when there might well have been a night kill for him to bait.

[Umlaut]

On Gamma d1: RoryMK,

Alchemist21

, Narna,

FireScreamer

,

Titus

,

Green Crayons

,

Brian Skies

Off Gamma d1: Almost50,

Umlaut

,

davesaz

,

CommKnight

,

Gamma Emerald

, Firebringer

On CommKnight d2:

Umlaut

, RoryMK, Firebringer, Narna,

FireScreamer

,

Titus

Off CommKnight d2:

CommKnight

,

Brian Skies

, Almost50,

davesaz

,

Green Crayons

On Titus d3:

davesaz

, RoryMK,

Umlaut

, Almost50, Firebringer
Off Titus d3:

Titus

,

Green Crayons

, Narna, Almost50

---

If I had to guess the team from this alone I'd say RoryMK and Firebringer. RoryMK hasn't really done much and I'd have no problem believing he's scum, but I've been sort of leaning town on Firebringer up until the hammer yesterday so I have to consider that.

[Umlaut]

Actually, one of Almost or Firebringer basically has to be scum so I should be looking between those two.

[Umlaut]

On Titus d3:

davesaz

, RoryMK,

Umlaut

, Almost50, Firebringer
Off Titus d3:

Titus

,

Green Crayons

, Narna, Almost50

There was an error in the last VC yesterday, Almost50 was listed as both voting for Titus and not voting. He was actually voting for Titus and shouldn't be in the "off Titus" list.

[Umlaut]

shannon/Almost50 vote progression

Day 1: (as shannon) Umlaut, FrankJaeger, CommKnight, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald; (as Almost50) unvote, Titus

Day 2: Brian Skies, davesaz, Narna

Day 3: Titus

Day 4: Almost50, unvote, Narna

Never voted: Green Crayons, FireScreamer

----------

This is actually a pretty clean record. Note that shannon put Gamma Emerald at L-1 and left the vote there when she replaced out, which seems unlikely for a scumbuddy.

[Umlaut]

FrankJaeger/Firebringer vote progression

Day 1: (as FrankJaeger) FireScreamer; (as Firebringer) FireScreamer, unvote, FireScreamer, FireScreamer, Almost50, CommKnight

Day 2: CommKnight

Day 3: Titus

Day 4: Almost50, unvote

Never voted: davesaz, Narna, Alchemist21, Green Crayons, Brian Skies, RoryMK, Gamma Emerald, Umlaut

----------

Uh yeah.

VOTE: Firebringer

[Umlaut]

Sorry, I was away pretty much all day yesterday and it's been a hellish several days before that.

Not sure what a massclaim would gain for town. If there is another town role, scum would gain from knowing who they are.
Even if there is a town benefit I'm not sure what town gains from me revealing first. Scum would have a better grasp of how many letters are available to fakeclaim.

A massclaim may produce a contradiction in which case we'd lynch in the claimed PRs today.

pedit

Almost was on the Titus lynch, that was an error in the VC that I replicated in that post.

[Umlaut]

Dave, the reason I want you to go first is that I want to rule out the possibility that you're a serial killer. I'm pretty sure you're not, but I'm not sure enough to bet the game on it. So I want you to specify whether you're full or one-shot vig without knowing what other PR claims there could be.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Firebringer

Don't want a lynch before we've claimed or decided not to.

[Umlaut]

I don't have trouble believing scum didn't bus, except that I'd have to believe Almost and Firebringer were a team.

[Umlaut]

Do you plan to explain that vote?

[Umlaut]

I don't understand how that makes me scum. That looks like exactly the progression you'd expect if he wanted a reason to call me scum but actually knew I was town.

I can kind of see the point with Narna, but then it's pretty clear the scumteam consists of one of {Narna, RoryMK} and one of {Almost50, Firebringer, Umlaut}. So of course you're going to say Narna is scum. Personally I'm most sure it's not me or Almost.

Note this is

another

reason we need to know conclusively if Dave is full vig, because

it's not quite mylo

if he is since he can take one more shot and hope to get us to 1:2 lylo. If which case we should just lynch one of Narna or RoryMK and he can shoot the other one if we're wrong. Whereas if he is one-shot we need to get it right.

[Umlaut]

@Umlaut: Actually, we should lynch Narna and if dave has a shot he can pock his target depending on the flip. If Narna is Scum, Rpry is TOWN, and thus dave shoots Firebringer. If Narna flips Town, dave shoot Rory. Isn't that a more likely to net at least one scum scenario?

I don't see how that's different from what I said. My point is that's why we need to know. If Dave is full we should limit ourselves to Narna and Rory, whereas if Dave is one-shot we don't have another chance and we should just lynch whoever is the most likely scum.

[Umlaut]

If no one else will start, I will.

I'm a vanilla townie.

Everyone else claim in your next post.

Also,
VOTE: Firebringer
since no one else will.

[Umlaut]

I am a vigilante.

Sigh.

[Umlaut]

I figured Firebringer was trolling, it didn't really occur to me to take him seriously. But I guess CCVVVMM is still a theoretical possibility.

Firebringer, unless you either retract that claim or specify what kind of vigilante so that Dave can corroborate, I am never taking my vote off you today.

[Umlaut]

I'd actually like Firebringer to answer first given the low face-value plausibility of his claim.

[Umlaut]

I can see Firebringer as scum trying to shake things up, though it only makes sense if scum need a different outcome than the one they're likely to get with status quo.

This would suggest a Narna-Firebringer team.

A quick skim of their ISOs shows nothing that would really refute this. FB has just said "Narna is town" without further comment since day 1, while Narna's only substantial comment on FB's alignment is today:

I've got A50/Umy as a scumteam. Their spots on the last wagon are pretty shitty, and FB's hammer while bad, seems like FB to me (I haven't seen scum fb though). A50 why am I FB's scum buddy now when I was supposed to be Titus' yesterday?

Neither has ever directly spoken to the other that I could find.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Umlaut
I may have been wrong on almost but this is definitely scum

I'm not clear on whether this is saying you still think Almost is scum too or not.

[Umlaut]

We'll never reach 100 pages at this rate.

[Umlaut]

I didn't know we were going for such a mark. I only want to get scum lynched today and get it over with.

It was a joke. We were getting close to 100 pages at the end of the last roll's d1.

Narna, everyone has claimed but you and Dave, you're up.

[Umlaut]

Might as well do the rest of these.

Narna vote progression

Day 1: Alchemist21, unvote, Brian Skies, Umlaut, Umlaut, Green Crayons, Gamma Emerald, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, davesaz, Gamma Emerald

Day 2: davesaz, CommKnight

Day 3:

(no votes)

Day 4:

(no votes)

Never voted: Firebringer,

Titus

, RoryMK,

FireScreamer

-----

Mixed feelings about the jumping on and off Gamma. It could be read as looking for an alternative to busing, but mostly it's just weird.
- She voted Almost and then quickly went back to Gamma without ever really explaining the Almost vote, and without any pressure.
- She voted Dave and then went back to Gamma apparently based on my telling her

not

to.
- She never really used the PR claim as a reason not to vote him even though it was the most obvious reason.

Narna, why

did

you vote Almost when you did?

[Umlaut]

RoryMK vote progression

Day 1: FireScreamer, Alchemist21, CommKnight, Gamma Emerald

Day 2: CommKnight

Day 3: Titus

Day 4: Narna

Never voted:

davesaz

, Almost50, Firebringer,

Green Crayons

,

Brian Skies

,

Umlaut

-----

The fact that he stuck his vote on Gamma Emerald for real reasons and never moved it looks good, even though the reason was weird (if you think Gamma is scum because of his associatives with Comm, why not keep voting Comm?). Not a lot else to say about it, it mostly reflects his overall inactivity.

[Umlaut]

Are you going to try to convince anyone or just ask politely?

[Umlaut]

I'm about as confident as I ever get that Firebringer is scum. Almost, just thinking I'm town should be enough to convince you of the same unless you think scum double-bused on day 1. What's keeping you from voting him?