Open 692 - Two-fold Matrix6 (Game Over)
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Greetings, I'm the new Kantrip.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Mmmm, brief skim of predecessor's iso just has me wanting to soft town Kasu.
Who wants me to sheep them? I'm too lazy to bother reading everything for reads.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How would any one player have this info?In post 1302, CommKnight wrote:
True. But then why not out who it is? If the mafia kill was blocked two nights in a row we kinda need to know who it was.In post 1300, Something_Smart wrote:Since the mafia kill was clearly blocked N1, yeah.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Leaves open both BP and Werewolf RB possibilities.In post 1305, Something_Smart wrote:If they are the JK...
Yeah, I wouldn't be sad to hear a JK claim if they targeted the same person twice - but it's still a gamble.
How does that affect read accuracy exactly?In post 1305, Something_Smart wrote:Also don't sheep Kasu!slot it's had like 4 different people in it.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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So you're saying I should disregard your reads also?In post 1307, Something_Smart wrote:The older players wouldn't have reads based on anything that's happened since they replaced out.
The newer players wouldn't have experienced (or in Mario's case, even read) the things that happened before they replaced in.
And if there is a JK and they did target the same player both nights, that person is very likely mafia IMO.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Vote: Something_Smart
Why would you specifically try to wave me off of sheeping a slot that you thought was a town slot?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Yeah, sounds more like you just don't want my vote on you and were trying to head off the possibility by not addressing the case but addressing vague game theory.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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You're saying there's no case on you?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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If you addressed them fully why are people still voting you?In post 1321, Something_Smart wrote:There have been cases on me, which I have thoroughly addressed. But you don't seem to know that, because you haven't read the game. So what you call a "case" is based on an incorrect guess, made for no reason that I can see except to throw shade.
I suspect you addressed them and people disagreed.
Also, if cases *were* presented then why are you claiming there is no case on you, wouldn't that be factually incorrect?
@Vedith - why aren't you pushing for anything at the moment? Thus far the entire time I've been here *I've* done not only about half the posts, but 100% of the pushes. Feels wonky, whassup for you?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Why should we lynch one of them?In post 1325, Vedith wrote:
I'm happy just chilling right now.In post 1324, Thor665 wrote:@Vedith - why aren't you pushing for anything at the moment? Thus far the entire time I've been here *I've* done not only about half the posts, but 100% of the pushes. Feels wonky, whassup for you?
But we should lynch SS regardless. Or WhyMafia.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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That's a not unreasonable case.In post 1328, Vedith wrote:
Because they both entertained my obvious fake claim.In post 1326, Thor665 wrote:Why should we lynch one of them?
And tried to push with it.
Therefore, pushing a mis lynch (on your slot) with the downside heading towards me.
Scum motive, scum reward.
@Something_Smart - why is the above case dumb/how have you rebutted it?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How does it do that? It assesses your behavior and then assigns a tell to it as far as I can see.In post 1341, Something_Smart wrote:Because it assumes I'm scum and then assigns motivation to my actions.
Did you believe his claim y/n?In post 1341, Something_Smart wrote:Not to mention that if I'm scum I have CLEARLY no intention of mislynching Vedith as I have been hard townreading him most of the game. There is a perfectly valid town motivation to my actions-- sheeping a player whose reads have in the past been good-- and both Mario and Vedith were in the game I referred to. (Incidentally, in that game I ALSO got wagoned for sheeping a confirmed town player and was almost lynched, and I was town of course.)-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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So it's not doing what you initially claimed, and now your complaint is that he failed to describe why scum would be more likely to fall for a fakeclaim than town?In post 1344, Something_Smart wrote:
It assigns a motivation to it. It doesn't explain why that motivation is any likelier than any other. And in fact, it doesn't make any sense because my play has pretty clearly been geared toward keeping Vedith from being lynched.In post 1342, Thor665 wrote:
How does it do that? It assesses your behavior and then assigns a tell to it as far as I can see.In post 1341, Something_Smart wrote:Because it assumes I'm scum and then assigns motivation to my actions.
I can easily think of logic for that myself - scum are more likely to buy a claim because they come from a place of generally believing eveyone else will tel the truth, since they are the faction that lies.
So his case does have validity then - how fake was the claim at face value? I'm going to have to research this.In post 1344, Something_Smart wrote:For a minute, until I realized.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Looking it over WhyMafia looks worse to me of the two.
But you don't look like you really give much of a fig for questioning Vedith either.
And it was super obvious he didn't have a guilty.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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At what stage did you understand it was for lawlz and decide to keep pushing Mario?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Why is WhyMafia scum in your mind?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Okay.
Unvote: Something_Smart
Vote: WhyMafia-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I would think yes considering your stated reads.
Why is Not_Mafia a better lynch than WhyMafia?In post 1354, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:where is everyone? the game pace is too slow im starting to worry we will either mislynch towards the end of the day or have another no lynch.
Looking at his 'orginal case' that you linked I find this to be demonstrably untrue. The "differences" are, at best, extremely slight and make absolute sense in coming from a person stating an identical thought in two slightly different ways. There is no atual real change in the cases I can see - can you describe it for me?
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How do you feel about them?In post 1378, Something_Smart wrote:Ari you're so fun when you try to gamesolve! You should do it more often
How do you feel about WhyMafia and Thor and my recent interaction with them?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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In post 1390, WhyMafia wrote:Should we do the 1 shot BP claim then?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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There hasn't been a night phase since I replaced in and no one has used a daykill power yet.
So...?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Considering blocked kills happening it is either because my predecessor's reads were quite bad or quite good.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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It was the wagon on you, wasn't it?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I have no idea and would have to pull up the ISO to look, since you would have to do the same and are apparently curious I would suggest only one of us deserves to do the workIn post 1425, Titus wrote:
What do you think your predecessor's n1 reads were? N2?In post 1414, Thor665 wrote:Considering blocked kills happening it is either because my predecessor's reads were quite bad or quite good.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Are you kidding?In post 1435, Something_Smart wrote:Although you were the one who speculated about your predecessor's reads, not Titus...
I actually only "speculated" to answer a question Titus asked me and my speculation required me to know literally nothing about my predecessor's reads as I claimed either they were good *or* bad.
What are you talking about?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Probably because you were attacking me, duh.In post 1437, Something_Smart wrote:Damn why so defensive...
Unless you felt that snipe *wasn't* trying to weaken my position, in which case you don't understand how the game works.
Pair that with illogic and it felt like it needed a shotgun.
I don't actually care about my predecessor's reads, why should I? Because I think they might be "quite good or quite bad" (which is so different from thinking they are good or bad...)? I don't have the info (scum's kill targets and all PR night action info) to divine the good v. bad so...it's literally pointless.In post 1437, Something_Smart wrote:You actually said they were "quite bad or quite good" and maybe it would be worth it to you to check them to see if you still think so, and if so which one you think it is?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How is it integral at all? In my answer I was blowing off Titus for asking a silly question with no valid way to answer it.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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My answer *calls it a silly question in a clever way* by providing an answer that is meaningless yet that does answer the question.
How was my answer "nteresting"-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I'm guessing you now agree that a value call on the quality of my predecessor's reads was not actually integral.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Scum might have shot me, how do you know they didn't?In post 1444, Something_Smart wrote:Because the obvious answer to call the question silly is "because the scum didn't shoot me". But instead you mentioned your predecessor's reads, in a way which does not say nothing (you said QUITE good or QUITE bad, which excludes the possibility of slightly good or slightly bad).
Because I was asked why I was alive - if you don't think 'quality of reads' is a factor in how long a town slot lives in a game then I would be fascinated to hear what you think the factors are.In post 1445, Something_Smart wrote:I mean, if you don't actually care about the quality of your predecessor's reads, then sure. But then why bring them up at all?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I would also argue in any mafia game slightly bad reads and slightly good reads are the exact same thing.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Then we agree that it's not a simple answer to say scum did or didn't try to kill me - so I have no idea why you're telling me I should have used your so-called simple answer.In post 1448, Something_Smart wrote:I don't, but given that I was actually around when your predecessor was here I don't think anyone would protect him.
Why was my answer 'interesting' again besides, unlike some of your claimed answers of how I should have responded, being correct?
So, at what stage then is it integral for me to assess my predecessor's reads?In post 1448, Something_Smart wrote:For one, it's multiball so each scumteam only knows half of how good someone's reads are. Also there's how townread someone is, PR tells, intended crosskills, reputation, none of which your slot had. And it's only been 2 nights so sure maybe a slot with really good reads wouldn't survive until LYLO but we're not nearly there yet.
You often say things like this to me, has it ever worked?In post 1449, Titus wrote:Cmon you were my first IC Thor. You know what I am saying here.
Dunno, don't care, already told you that - you refusing to read doesn't then obligate my usual refusal to read to magically end.In post 1449, Titus wrote:What were your predecessors reads at n1?
Sheep me or do your research, you're starting to be very boring.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I town read Umlaut and Judge Dredd now.
Otherwise happy with my vote.
With three days left I'd like to force a claim on someone. Some of those straggler votes should go into high octane sheeping demands or should consolidate on a viable wagon.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I suspect we're going to, people are just being slurpy slow about it.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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That is more of a stance than you have otherwise provided thus far, and if you have any interest in seeing it advanced you need to provide a sexy bullet point case asap for people to sheep.In post 1469, Titus wrote:Yes and it should be you. I am not voting WhyMafia with your obvscum ass pushing it.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I've provided the reads I have, anyone else would be in 'null' at this stage.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I have not called myself great, but thank you for the burden of proficiency fallacy (as usual).In post 1475, Titus wrote:You've had 3 days and the best the great Thor can do is nulls on most everyone?
I agree it has been three days, and you should be able to go back and look at those three days and see it was a wasteland.
And, frankly, about four reads in three days seems okay to me.
So your claim is I'm the last Mafia and he's a wolf, and I know it and don't want to threaten him or his wolf buddy by pressing them?In post 1476, Titus wrote:Why it's almost as if you're trying to avoid pissing off Umlaut who is likely a wolf by wagons yesterday.
If so it apparently took me two days to puzzle that out and try to do it as a strategy I suppose...and in the interim I hard pressed the 'wolf'.
Or did I know when I was attacking the wolf that it was a wolf all along?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How do the wagons yesterday make Umlaut a wolf?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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We have an asexual relationship and don't need you coloring it.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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You've trapped me in a web of my own devising, assuredly.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@Titus - y'know, before Lang came in with jokes I asked a number of serious questions, I'd like to at least see this one fielded.In post 1478, Thor665 wrote:How do the wagons yesterday make Umlaut a wolf?
Because he's blatantly trying to game solve.In post 1490, Umlaut wrote:Why is JJD town?
I will note that 'Not Voting' is mod confirmed as not scum aligned, so if you're going to say something like this I'd like to see something non=sloth like accompanying it.In post 1496, Aristophanes wrote:Whymafia could be scum but I feel like he's the designatwd mislynch atm.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I'd phrase it as "deserved a wagon on you" but would otherwise agree.In post 1499, Something_Smart wrote:
I don't know, I got more of the impression that Thor was trying to see if he could swing a wagon on me...In post 1493, Aristophanes wrote:Okay, so Thor/SS looks like a TvT to me. They noth appear to ve sorting each other. I like SS saying not to sheep the Kaus slot and I like Thir pushing around at others rather than clinging solely to that point.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Finding myself wishing I had pulled scum, could win this game by just going to sleep.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I can only summarize for myself, which would be awkward interactions with Vedith around a fairly obvious fake claim.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I suppose I can add 'lurking like a boss' but, then again, that could be my case on everyone-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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You're saying normally trust Vedith and it burns you and so you wanted to be untrusting this time? Or are you saying you normally don't trust his fake claims and it burns you and so you wanted to be trusting? I am having a hard time parsing this answer.In post 1508, WhyMafia wrote:Therefore I must VOTE: Ari
Join this righteous wagon. Thor regarding my "awkward comments". Why do you think scum would be that blatantly oppertunistic? It doesn't make any sense. I have previous experience with Vedith fake claims, and 99% of the time, I misjudge the situation. I didn't want to hesitate this time and plus I did attempt to confirm he was telling the truth. Additionally, what stops town from making the exact same comments I did? It's literally NAI
I would generally expect town to either believe or not believe him.
You chose to believe him but suggest he should be lynched if wrong - which is the lining up lynches scum option.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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20 hours left.
Are we just going for another no lynch day or what?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I am fascinated by the current situation because whther I am town, mafia, OR werewolf my appropriate wincon is to suggest I'm Mafia and play along.
Which is an odd place to be logically. So...sure, I'll help you scumhunt? Derp.
I will note that it doesn't make a lot of sense not to lynch me today if you're convinced I'm Mafia, that's bad town play straight up though, and S_S is suspect for acting like it's a good move, and his plan doesn't actually make logical sense if he believes what he's saying.
Makes me think he's a wolf and being smart.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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So my advice would be to lynch me, and then lynch S_S and then buddy hunt.
The catch is one of the lurkers is probably the buddy, and I'm town. SO...yeah.
But logically that's the best play.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I shall number your list and respond, but the most obvious reason is 'town isn't actually benefiting from this plan, but scum are';In post 1599, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:
maybe im too thick but how is that?In post 1576, Thor665 wrote:I am fascinated by the current situation because whther I am town, mafia, OR werewolf my appropriate wincon is to suggest I'm Mafia and play along.
1. I would presume Mafia would then kill whoever the hell they feel like and laugh as I get lynched for not upholding my end of the bargain - resulting in a pretty solid Mafia win chance making it a bad move for town.In post 1599, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:1. assuming youre town you cant kill so your only chance of surviving tomorrow is if the real mafia kill your assigned target for you. now what if your assigned targetisthe real mafia?
2. if youre ww then the same applies, i.e. what if youre required to shoot your own p?
3. the only way you can pay along here is if you are the real mafia
4. but seeing how titus crumbed her target i believe you are indeed the mafia and comm explained well how its fair for everyone to leave you alive and leash you
5. so its ari or lang for me today and nobody wants to lynch lb it seems and wm did ask me to lynch ari today so unless someone can come up with a very good case on someone else or a very convincing argument against this particular lynch my vote is on aris
6. now can we agree on who thro should be shooting in each case? (i.e. if ari flips ww as most of us would expect him to be, or if he flips town as mainly ss thinks he is)
2. Then the wolves can freely shoot for Mafia, on a Mafia flip I'm spared and come out smelling like roses which is good for Wolves, and on a town flip I'm lynched which works out okayish for Wolves and great for Mafia and, at best, equal break for town (and it *still* would be better to lynch me today than tomorrow in that situation as it prevents potentially double town kills tonight - making it a bad move for town).
3. Or if I'm the wolves, or, frankly, if I'm town though my "play along" has an in built fail that only helps me if I lynch Mafia today - in fact, as I said, lynching Mafia today is inherently in town's best interests therefore leashing Mafia is, as mentioned, a bad play for town.
4. Even if I am exactly Mafia, and I'm not, S_S has actually failed to explain the theory gain from my so called leashing. Like I said, if I'm Mafia the best move for town is to lynch me because it takes a kill off the board and still leaves you with equal odds for bagging wolves, whereas leashing Mafia (presuming you even can) DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE CHANCES OF MAFIA WINNING. (much less Wolves) which is against my wincon, how about you?
5-6. Even going on the insane presumption that not lynching "known" scum is a good play, you then galumph off without making werewolf buddy cases for your suspects.
Does any of that ping you to the issue with the plan?
Town doesn't advocate not killing scum.
It's why I think S_S is a good town lynch presuming you're daft enough to not lynch me (and I can even grok the case on me, and it's painful to see people ignoring it for NO REASON BEYOND A HALF BAKED PLAN).-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Like at least walk through the theory advantage to town if I'm Mafia and am not lynched.
There isn't one worth a spit.
Except to me if I'm Mafia, there's a LOT of advantage there.
Why then negotiate that just to control who I theory shoot?
Literally only wolves would be worried about a theory Mafia shot at this stage of the game.
That makes S_S a strongly likely wolf and that's regardless of what you think my actual alignment is.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Let's not even dwell on Wolves opting to remove a JKer focusing on a theory Mafia.
Like, the thing that makes the leashing plan even possible.
When wolves, if I was not a wolf, wold have zero issues with what Titus was selling.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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If Titus were here she'd be calling you all lackwits with me.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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You're arguing how controlling Mafia kill is beneficial while admitting that the only point of even theoretical control of the Mafia kill is based only on the idea that it helps Mafia win condition - which is the point you're trying to argue with me doesn't exist, and then reversing into an explanation of how the reality is zero Mafia win, which means you don't control the kill at all and therefore why are you claiming control of the kill?In post 1604, Something_Smart wrote:Lynching you takes a kill off the board that we could otherwise force you to use to bring us into odds. And the odds of a mafia win are still very low because, assuming you're mafia, neither the town not the werewolves will take an action allowing you to win; in 1v1v2 going into the day town will no lynch rather than risk lynching werewolf and in 1v1v2 going into the night werewolves will certainly kill you.
If Ari is lynched and flips town, Umlaut should eat a bullet.
I will agree that in 1v1v1 and 1v1v2 that town is already basically screwed and a scum lynch can be autolose and town should always no lynch.In post 1605, Something_Smart wrote:
Also I can prove this wrong very easily: 1v1v1 or 1v1v2. In both cases, lynching scum autoloses for town. In the second, lynching town actually gives town a higher EV than no-lynching.In post 1600, Thor665 wrote:Town doesn't advocate not killing scum.
Multiball lategame and endgame scenarios are very weird, and all bets are off. Because don't forget: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." So congratulations Thor, you're my friend.
Are we in that setup right now?
Because otherwise I fail to see what you think you're arguing with me other than further evidence that you're not advancing a lynch that is based on a town wincon - which is my point.
If I'm Mafia you literally don't control gak, and by keeping me alive you're increasing my win chance.
So...why is keeping me alive beneficial to town exactly?
I understand how it benefits Mafia and Wolves just fine.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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- Posts: 33454
- Joined: October 11, 2009
- Location: Venice, FL
Yeah, but then you'd still need to lynch Mafia for the win tomorrow regardless even presuming things amazingly went your way, you can get a 'mislynch' equivalent off a no kill tomorrow regardless and you're not running the risk of totally screwing town wincon.In post 1607, Something_Smart wrote:Because we can mislynch and not lose the game.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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- Posts: 33454
- Joined: October 11, 2009
- Location: Venice, FL
Like, lynching Mafia today leaves town in a hunt tomorrow - worst case (and best case) scenario.
Guessing at a lynch and having two scum kills (one of which for some insane reason you're claiming town will control) in multiple variations leads to almost immediate town auto lose.
You're looking to gamble that for a mislynch opportunity?
Explain those odds a bit there wolfie.