Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over
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In post 27, Thor665 wrote: Why announce town leans without expanding on them?
What is there to say? Is it not possible to have a vague impression of a town read that would sound ridiculous to put into words?In post 28, Maxous wrote:because someone would inevitably ask for detailed explanations of page 1 gut reads
In post 26, Bellaphant wrote:Hii all.The way she puts 2 'i's instead of 1... so friendly and relaxed, probably town.-
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Because I'm not about to say "hey everyone, thor isIn post 40, Thor665 wrote: PEdit - if you think I'm chasing a low hanging fruit (and I am blatantly chasing the Penguin wagon) why aren't you tagging me over it directly instead of empty side line commenting on it to see if other people agree with you before you go in on the thought?clearlydoing this scum thing despite there being other equally valid explanations for his behavior". That would be pretty hypocritical considering my stance on Penguin, wouldn't you think?
For example one of those equally valid explanations would be that you're overly-aggressively scum hunting right out the gate. In this scenario, Beefster's casual defense of Penguin may be viewed in an incriminating light.
I'm not looking to pin everyone down as 100% scum or town on page 2. I'm just looking to put various information on the table so opinions can more quickly be formed.-
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Is this supposed to be a RV? I thought we were past that.
I didn't think it was prompted at all. I was just throwing out additional notes.In post 59, Thor665 wrote: What made you call out my action unprompted and Beefeater's only when needing to justify your actions as non-scummy?
More on Penguin:
- I like the reactions we've gotten out of it so far but I feel like it's a waste of time. I personally don't feel like there's a solid read to be had on Penguin based on what we've seen.
- I feel like Thor's overaggressive scumhunting doesn't make him town based on his experience with the game.
- I do however think it's incredibly effective. But in terms of Penguin I think the argument made is very weak and won't yield any further results.
On Maxous's "I have town reads"
- I feel like it's an odd thing to say but I can see why he wouldn't supply reasons. Sometimes you just get vague impressions, it happens.
- What I don't understand iswhy he felt the need to speak out on these impressions.
PEdit: Not a fan of how quick penguin is to get the focus shifted on someone else...-
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I may be using the term wrong, but isn't that considered WIFOM? It seems thor does this every game so I'm not convinced it can be a guaranteed town tell. If the goal of scum is to act as town as possible, and scum hunting is a towntell (as it would seems everyone agrees, as a few have pinned thor as town already) would it not make sense to scumhunt? I'm not saying he's either, just that I'm not so quick to pin him as either this early.In post 66, HeWhoSwims wrote:I'm not one to usually have solid reads right out of RVS, but I am townlean on Thor now for, as I said, scumhunting (although it's OTT) is a catalyst for discussion -> is good. Would scum!Thor really want to put that much attention onto themselves that early?
I can see why you get vague impressions but I don't think they'll be helpful to the game... someone isn't scum or town based on the way they cast a vote in RVS or say hello to competitors so having impressions is okay, but why mention them as you said?
pedit: Since I'm still on thor, UNVOTE: as well.
I'm moreso starting to agree. I don't see why he felt the need to add that other than to say "yes I too am contributing". I thought people were reading into it too much at first but I can see why now more than I did previously.-
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Is me alluding that Beefeater siding against you and with Penguin is fishy not considered throwing out a note on Beefeater? Or am I not understanding the question?In post 70, Thor665 wrote: What made you "throw out notes" on me and not Beefeater at that moment?
I don't see a difference in saying that vs making a comment on you going at penguin's throat. Which at this point is more clearly an interrogation and not a push for a lynch.-
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Ok so I'll start here by responding to Thor.
Ok so I think you may have misinterpreted what I meant in 46. To adjust your overview:In post 81, Thor665 wrote: CLearly we are not communicating functionally - here's the timeline as I understand it with my question restated for clarity;
You: Thor is pushing for low hanging fruit, amirite?
Me: If you think that, why aren't you coming at me over it? I think you're looking for support before getting behind something.
You: Because you may not be scum, for instance, look at Beefeater's thing too - maybe you're town.
Me: Then why call me out and not Beefeater at the same time?
You: I did call out Beefeater.
So to clarify/reask my question;
Initially you *did not* call out Beefeater's actions. You only called out mine in a scummy light.
Why do that if you also had questions about Beefeater/didn't really think I was scummy for what I was doing?
Walk me through the whole thought process if you can.
Money: Thor is pushing for low hanging fruit, amirite?
Thor: If you think that, why aren't you coming at me over it? I think you're looking for support before getting behind something.
Money: Because you may not be scum,there may be an equally valid explanation for your behavior. To say otherwise would be hypocritical of me given my stance on PP. Also, in such a scenario where you are town, I find it odd that Beefeater is very specifically trying to be lowkey about defending PP.(42)
Thor: Then why call me out and not Beefeater at the same time?
Money:What do you mean, I did call out Beefeater just as equally as I "called out" you. I'm not pinning down either of you as scum, simply pointing out potentially scummy behavior.
I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.
That said, I more clearly see the importance of me being more direct with my observations. In a new post (or perhaps multiple) I'll start providing some more detailed reads. I'll start on it now.-
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Starting with Beefster:
Despite my inital thoughts from 42 I feel like he's a pretty strong town read.
I agree. Actually I think it's very manipulative. I'm aware he didn't vote for Bell but that doesn't mean I like the way he's presenting himself here.In post 102, Beefster wrote:
Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.In post 98, Flubbernugget wrote:Bella votes are pro town atm
VOTE: Flubber
Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.
I feel like in a world where Beef is scum, he would never 180 like this after attention being drawn to 42. Even though I disagree with him here I appreciate his ability to make such a blatantly drastic, yet honest change in opinion. I feel like scum would be more focused on "how can I subtlety change my mind on this" rather than just an outright 180.In post 115, Beefster wrote: Turns out I misread. You're absolutely right.
That changes a lot, actually. It basically flips my reads on Thor and PP.
This Flubber v Thor argument makes me more comfortable with my vote.
On Max:
I don't feel like max is scum. I feel like his analysis of HeWhoSwims in 71 is very detailed. I'm not sure if I believe it's 100% accurate. But I think it's a very detailed thing to find, and not something you can really pull out of a hat if you're on the spot and need to throw out some contribution. He's also been contributing since.
I still feel like his remark of having reads but not listing them is strange. However I think it's more interesting to see everyone else's rather severe reaction to it.
HeWhoSwims hasn't posted a lot but I don't feel like they are trying to hide anything either.
I feel like Athena is accurate in 84 in her remarks about texcat. I also agree with her analysis of PP in 100.
I like how Klick is asking a lot of questions instead of just accusing everyone. Town read on him for me.
Something feels really off about moz in 130. I find it strange how he's going to call out Klick for doing something that max did earlier that everyone found suspicious. Seems like a redundant, ez callout that's bound to get people riled up, right?
I feel like Bell is participating on a good level with Klick and Beef.
Ok so now for Flub and PP.
Flub: I'm not a fan of how Flub is trying to control the game. It could just be his playstyle but he seems very intent on guiding the direction of the game. His comment on Bell comes off as very manipulative to me. In general it feels like he's going way out of his way to prove that he too is a good town boi, and is very angry at all these scummy lads in his town. And if you're town of course you need to side with him too right?
PP: I don't like how he's reacted to everything so far, at all. He seems really defensive based on his interactions with Thor, Athena, and myself. I feel like Athena's analysis of him is solid. He seems very upset about the timing thing, which I personally think isn't a valid argument. However if you're guilty and someone catches you with a jank argument, that's upsetting right? It's frustrating to be caught doing something that really can't even be pinned down as suspicious. I just don't like that whole exchange. I don't like his responses to anything. I don't like how he hasn't done much else but defend himself.
VOTE: PenguinPower-
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I'm not sure I follow. Are you now saying that post was in an effort to see if anyone would fall for the bait?In post 149, Flubbernugget wrote:
The idea was that you had a weak entrance that scum could have hopped on to counterwagon maxous. It would have made for a good talking point in addition to Thors push on penguinIn post 147, Bellaphant wrote:Yeah, that is what I meant and was super helpful.
IF flub -doesn't- wanna lynch me, what does he think town is getting out of a wagon... I have some ideas but I'd rather flub talked to me.-
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Klick: I'd like to hear more about your reads. I see you asking people for theirs but I'd like to hear what you think.
Thor: Do you have any opinions on people you haven't mentioned yet? I know you've been busy with PP and Flub but I'm interested in what else you have to say.
HeWhoSwims: What do you think of people like Flub? Has your opinion changed on Max?-
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I'm not sure what else I can say at this point. At the time of writing that post while I was replying to you I thought I would also point out beef's behavior in his post. You are correct, I did not specifically say to his face "beef, why have you done this". I left it as a comment in passing, similarly to how I left the original comment about you.In post 162, Thor665 wrote:
It's not a playstyle issue.In post 148, Moneybags wrote:I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.
You opted to call me out.
You did not opt to call out anyone else.
I'm asking why and you're not answering yet.
At this point it's just a debate on how I intended to write my post vs how I came across. I'm not really sure how I'm supposed to clarify this any more than I already have.-
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I feel like as a scum you're less likely to take risks, right? Pulling a 180 like that so early on isn't going to be something on your agenda. It draws attention to flip around like that. He's been giving some good contribution since as well so he's fairly town to me.In post 164, HeWhoSwims wrote: @Moneybags why exactly do you think scum can't do a 180 but instead wants to change their mind subtly? Wouldn't that pretty much depend on the playstyle of the scum players...? The rest of 150 is great though and I agree with most of it.
I wanted to single this out because I very strongly agree with this. I think Max's reaction was very solid. I think they're town for the reasons cited above. I had the feeling when I first saw his reaction but I didn't really know how to put it into words. This articulates it well.In post 175, Flubbernugget wrote: Maxous - good reaction to the pressure over their early Town reads. I can see them expecting that to be a moot point and moving on with the rest of the game, and didn't try to over explain their initial town leans.
Ok so I don't know about it even being slight OMGUS. However looking at Flub's behavior, I do feel like you have described it accurately. I also feel like toned it down a lot after I called him out for attempting to domineer the game. I'd also like to note that HeWhoSwims made a pass at Flub's 1 liner posts in 164, and it was after this he started contributing more. His behavior feels entirely too self conscious.In post 182, texcat wrote: This looks likeblatantobvious OMGUS. When you said that you didn't understand Bella and Klick's town read of me, it was OK, but when I say something about it, suddenly it's shading? And what about Klick, he echoed Bella, but you say that he's "making good observations." Seems a little off.
You weren't pushing anyone and your vote was not on anyone until I voted you. Suddenly then you produced a list of townreads and then decide to vote me. Stinks like pond scum. I think you are scum looking for an easy place to park your vote, and you found it when I voted you.
I am personally good with either a PP or Flub lynch today. PP has been awol for nearly 2 days now so idk what's going on there. I'd like to hear more from him when he has the time.-
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But why? We have several fairly good leads right now.
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I replied to that post in 168.In post 194, Thor665 wrote:
@Moneybags - 5th verse, same as the first.In post 162, Thor665 wrote:
It's not a playstyle issue.In post 148, Moneybags wrote:I feel like this miscommunication is due to a very polar difference in our play styles. So far I've been making passing comments to generate discussion. You have been interrogating people which gets reactions and also generates discussion. I can see why you would take an issue with me being less confrontational.
You opted to call me out.
You did not opt to call out anyone else.
I'm asking why and you're not answering yet.
Nothing.
What do you think changed?
I like the idea of a Flub v. Tex wagon adventure.
Bella is now an acceptable lynch to me also.
Beefster is wasting time.
Errant is playing right near the very edge of strategic lurking and should knock that crud off.
VOTE: Flubbernugget
EP said they have been sick. Even still they've contributed more than Tex and PP.-
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I'd like to know why you, or anyone else who agree, thinks PP is town. I can see someone not thinking he's scum. I can why someone wouldn't be ready to come to that conclusion. I can't see how someone could think he's confirmed town simply based on "timing argument is bad." Just because the argument is null doesn't confirm or exempt PP from being town. It's his reaction that counts.In post 202, mozamis wrote:
moz,penguin,thor,beef,cult,max= town.In post 200, mozamis wrote:
moz,penguin,thor, beef townIn post 55, mozamis wrote:moz, penguin, thor town. P.O.E ahoy!
so scum in Klick, Hewho,Errant,Flubber,Bella, Tex,Moneybags
3scum in 7, not a bad lynch pool for day 1.
Before people go mental, these are PROVISIoney
ONAL DAY 1 reads. I like to be captain obvious, get a sensible lynch pool going for day 1.
I AM NOT SAYING THAT TOWN POOL are confirmed. It just helps me focus.
But yeah, we should defintely be looking at those 7-
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Addendum: I realize your list is not confirmed town, and I shouldn't have used the sentence " I can't see how someone could think he's confirmed town..." as that leads to confusion. It should more accurately read " I can't see how someone gets a town vibe from him simply because he was on the receiving end of a null argument".-
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I really just feel like you're projecting your interpretation of what I was meaning with my beefster remark vs my remark on you. Honestly if I had any way more clear or more "acceptible" to put it I would. Again I'm telling you how I was trying come across and again you're telling me thats now how you saw it. And that's fine, I accept that it didn't come across as I intended. However you refusing to accept my answer does not change anything. I don't have any other answers for you, feel free to interpret it as you wish.In post 219, Thor665 wrote:To clarify my issue - it's the timing for me.
You attacked me in a sideline way.
When asked you stepped back to try to call it a neutral opinion (ignoring that your initial comment was straight up attack) and also then tossed out other thoughts that you didn't opt to share until called on it and then claimed those thoughts were actually similar/identical to your initial call out even though you didn't initially state them at that time.
You're scummy to me now.
If you get a better answer to that issue feel free to toss it out.
Are you calling that scummy?In post 195, Moneybags wrote:EP said they have been sick. Even still they've contributed more than Tex and PP.
Are you saying you think EP needs votes?
You're sidelining again.
I was actually trying to vouch for EP. I don't think EP needs votes for being sick and attempting to catch up on the game.
Moreso in general, I'd like to clarify that I don't think Tex is scum. I was using them as a reference in that post vs EP. While I don't agree with everything that Tex has said I do think their town. Hearing other people say that they are usually quiet affirms that the quietness isn't a scumtell.
Seeing moz post more makes me feel like they are genuine. Although I have to say I really don't agree with a lot of what they are saying. I feel like Beef continuing to make more radical game play decisions is more of a towntell. I can see he was clearly trying to generate discussion but it was entirely unnecessary. The only alternative I can think of is that he is perhaps trying to detract from a flub lynch by generating controversy.
Also @moz, if PP is town due to him defending himself head on, what does that make flub? He's had a few accusations come out against him and unless I totally missed it I haven't seen him do anything other than adjust his playstile when he was accused of things. For example I mentioned it felt like he was trying to manipulate the game and suddenly he's gone and toned things down a bit.
I'd like to go back and comment around Tex's claim that Flub's vote on her was OMGUS. While I feel like that's a bit of an exaggeration, I find it really interesting that he decided to double down after that in 183. Him picking tex as a target is really interesting to me because her playstyle makes her, to quote myself, low hanging fruit. And to be more precise this time, I think Flub is going for the low hanging fruit, Texcat. And to top it off, as HeWhoSwims points out in 193, it's a really weak argument he has to begin with. It really does feel like OMGUS. You have an easy prey that other people could possibly read as scum, that just happens to be voting for you. It looks really bad to me. I'd like to hear what other people think about this.-
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Ok so after reading HeWhoSwims take on Beef I thought I'd look at his posts in a new light. Keep in mind this is in context with the other two players I currently find the scummiest.
-Siding with PP over ThorIn post 42, Beefster wrote:VOTE: thor
Something smells fishy about this interaction and I don't think it's PenguinPower.
-Busing Flub?In post 102, Beefster wrote:
Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.In post 98, Flubbernugget wrote:Bella votes are pro town atm
VOTE: Flubber
Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.
-180 on pengiun, doesn't want to buss both teammates at once?In post 115, Beefster wrote:
Turns out I misread. You're absolutely right.In post 103, Thor665 wrote:
My case has literally nothing to do with his status as queue moderator.In post 87, Beefster wrote:You're case is built around Penguin's status as a queue moderator. I don't think that's very sportsmanlike and reeks of typical garbage reasons used by scum.
His defense has everything to do with it.
So how is my case built around it exactly?
That changes a lot, actually. It basically flips my reads on Thor and PP.
This Flubber v Thor argument makes me more comfortable with my vote.-Notice he does this right as Flub takes heat for voting Tex. It's soon after 184 where I say "I am personally good with either a PP or Flub lynch today."
He does indeed change his mind after it doesn't pan out. But it did distract people, like moz.In post 210, Beefster wrote:The flubber wagon felt stale at the time, but it seems to be picking up momentum. She's been pinging my scumdar. She feels very methodical/mechanical in her posts.
VOTE: Flubber
I am still suspicious of COA.
Not sure if any of this means anything but here it is.-
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When I was writing 240 I felt like there was another bit of evidence in Flub changing his behavior after a callout (besides mine). It was HeWhoSwims', detailed here.In post 184, Moneybags wrote:Ok so I don't know about it even being slight OMGUS. However looking at Flub's behavior, I do feel like you have described it accurately. I also feel like toned it down a lot after I called him out for attempting to domineer the game. I'd also like to note that HeWhoSwims made a pass at Flub's 1 liner posts in 164, and it was after this he started contributing more. His behavior feels entirely too self conscious.-
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I was echoing moz's terminology to describe how Beef went from "time to vote someone else" to "that didn't pan out, back to flubber". He said he's still suspicious of COA. At least for me, using that phrase was in reference to his vote change. I don't know if moz actually thinks it's deeper than that.In post 253, Thor665 wrote: I'd love for either or both of you to describe to me where and how Beef changed his mind exactly.
He clearly changed his vote.
He never indicated in any way I can spot that he changed his mind.
Clarify?
No comments on any of the points brought up against Flub?-
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At this point I'd have to say I agree. Early on it was enough for me to go on but now there may be enough evidence for me to think otherwise.In post 252, Errantparabola wrote:Moneybags:
I'm not saying you're wrong statistically but I'm also going to say that scum is capable of being a lot (to the point where an observation like this is useless to me) more unpredictable in this regard than you think. Especially when they don't think about this kind of stuff.In post 150, Moneybags wrote:I feel like scum would be more focused on "how can I subtlety change my mind on this" rather than just an outright 180.
I didn't realize there was still a push for max. PP has had to step out for a bit and Bella has not been offering a lot of insight either. You've actually made the most valid case against him so far.-
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My concerns stem from it being a strange thing to see right after flub starts taking heat. Which only matters in the context of both Beef and Flub being scum. If one or neither of them are scum then it's probably nothing. That whole post of beef quotes from me is mainly in context of his interactions with people that are suspect to me.-
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Didn't you have a problem with HeWhoSwims for skimming and not reading?In post 284, Maxous wrote:
the highlighted quote answers the question.In post 219, Thor665 wrote:Why is it a poor vote?
Also, if you dislike my vote, why are you totally fine with Beefster's 210?
i don't see a concise, clarified reason for the vote. It's jumbled up into wall posts that people have to struggle to figure out.-
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Coming from just sharing that sentiment, I don't think Athena feeling ignored was under pressure at all, let alone scummy. She had what, one out of the blue vote and she's "under pressure"? Iirc no one but beef had said anything to her. I can't see how this quote can be considered under pressure when the simplier and more likely scenairo is that it's out of frustration.In post 312, Errantparabola wrote:
I feel like this question comes from scum a lot under pressure. Responds to a single one-off vote from Beefster with a flurry of posts, questions about why she's being ignored, classic "it's not me, it's my playstyle" line... idk, seems like a disproportionate reaction.In post 266, CultOfAthena wrote:Hm, I feel like my posts are getting ignored here. I also didn't get really get any responses that I'm satisfied with from my questions. Is it my posting style?
VOTE: CultOfAthena
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Just a thoughts dump:
Right now I'm in a place where I have a small pool of people who I think are probably possibly town and a bunch more people who I would just be okay voting.
This remark from you paired with the other paragraph I left included does not sit well with me at all.-
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So I'd like to start by saying my stance on Flub is now a very strong null read. He's done a lot of things to make me suspicious but I'm no longer confident in saying he's scum. He made a post saying something like "the change in my gameplay was literally me no longer arguing with thor". I agree that could easily explain what I was seeing. I am, however, still not a fan of his reactions to things. For example him telling thor that there is no case against him in 334 just rubs me the wrong way. I feel like the post he made explaining the change I and others picked up on is fair. I do still have problems with other things of his. For now I'm going to remain on the fence cause I felt like I've been reading too much into his posts in general.
I'm going to UNVOTE: Transcend. I was going to leave my vote on PP until he came back and gave me a reason to remove it. I'm changing my stance on him to null until we can get more solid information. He's either town trying to make up for PP's failure to play the role, or scum trying to dig out of his current situation. Either explication is currently valid.
I do want to address Klick. I noticed some things from him early on that I decided to keep quiet on so he would play unaffected. Other people have since brought it up so now that it's out in the open I want to bring up some things I didn't see mentioned.
The Bella Exchange:In post 136, Klick wrote:Which way is the gut read on texcat, and what posts does it come from? Because I have the same thing.
I think we all can agree this is strange. I know he explained this in one of his recent posts as him being insecure. However what's strange to me is that he would ask this after voting her in 95. Keep in mind this was when PP and Max were the top wagons. Shortly after in 98 Flub made his "bella votes are town votes" remark. In retrospect, I feel like he actually might have been on to something here.In post 138, Klick wrote:Yeah, I had a weird gut townread on texcat as well reading earlier. Something about the post he made on page 3 seemed like... minimal content, but in a genuine way? idk.
The Moneybags Exchange:
In context of a Beef-scum scenario, this isIn post 159, Klick wrote:On my phone. Just posting to say I really, really like your post 150 Moneybags. Particularly the Beefster bit - that was a nice catch, and I think I'm going to townread him now as well. I agree with not quite seeing Maxous-scum at this point in time, and his wagon is very peculiar/interesting to me. Going to look into the votes on him in detail when I get back on my laptop.reallyinteresting. I also townread Klick in my post 150. This in light of the bella exchange feels like straight up buddying with me. Also it gave him a reason to say Beef is for sure town, which he seems really enthusiastic about.
Beefster is Town (thanks Moneybags), also Flubber might be scum but I'm not committing:
Points on Beef and myself have been commented on already. I think his non-stance on flubber is interesting.In post 167, Klick wrote:Alright, reads.
mozamis - slight Town-lean for reasons I've already discussed.
Beefster - Town-lean based on Moneybags' point; I can't discern his alignment beyond that, but the argument that he wouldn't make such a drastic change in reads just like that is one I can get behind.
Thor - Thor
Moneybags - I guess a Town lean? Essentially I'm seeing a bunch of pro-Town activity from you - what you're doing is advancing the Town agenda - but I can't say that's totally alignment-indicative just yet. But I want you to be town. Your reads make sense from a town perspective and you're a good mind to be able to rely on in this team. I think for convenience's sake I'm going to assume you're Town for a little while, and reevaluate at a later point. More than likely I'm right and we'll start getting somewhere by cooperating.
texcat - I felt good about his second post as I discussed before. It would really help if he posts more so I can further cement that read if he's town. Null-leaning-town.
Bella - I didn't like her second post, but my vote on her has been more to encourage her to get in here and get involved than anything. I was really hoping once she got active she would show me she was town really quickly (I know Bella very well personally, we joined this to play together). That didn't quite happen. I can't shake an annoying gut scum read of her, but I also can't justify it beyond that second post.
Flubbernugget - I want to say Scum, but I'm not going to, mostly because I think the things I'm seeing as scummy are probably playstyle-related. Namely, he's been primarily focused on exactly two subjects all game; the never-ending discussion of Thor's activity read on Penguin, and the whole "votes on Bella are pro-town" thing (and he keeps being baited into that discussion). Due to his reactive/responsive posting style, I don't think it's really indicative of alignment, but at the same time I really want to hear about more things than that from him. Especially since he mentioned Penguin would be scum if all he could do was argue with Thor, which is all Flubber is really doing at this point. Null for the time being, but I'd like to fix that.
Official Reads (Finally, on page 15):
Town Reads: Not surprising, except that he has nothing to say on anything against Beef, and is strongly still holding him up as town.In post 351, Klick wrote:TOWN
This is my strongest read. I really like Beef's 115 which is where my townread of him started. There's inconsistency in his reads and odd flops of his vote, in ways that I think he'd be more careful about as scum. Most recently, I like the way he's criticizing mozamis in his last post for voting CoA, joining his own wagon, because it doesn't line up with moz's reads. He just looks really genuine to me, thus he's my strongest townread.Beefster:
LEANING TOWN
As I said in my last post, the wagon on him currently makes no sense to me. At first I was put off by his abrasive posting style, but everything game-related he's posted lines up with my own thoughts on the game really well. I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget. Call it gut, I guess, and a little bit of texcat looking super bad on his wagon.Flubbernugget:
This is a very slight read. I'm wary of Bella's ability to come across as genuine and town-looking. But one thing does stand out to me a little:Bellaphant:In post 139, Bellaphant wrote:I liked the vote as well: it seemed to want to move on from the thor/pp thing which people (now flubber) are stil dragging, and felt like a gut reaction to max's weird 'I have SEKRIT' townreads. tex is prolly the player i've got most experience of here as well.I don't feel like scum-Bella gives the thread a second thought after her first post. I feel like scum-Bella is more calculated than that, sure of what she wants to do before she posts, while town-Bella is more impulsive like this.
It's not much, but enough to raise her from the null pile.
LEANING SCUM
I had a gut town read on him at one point, but reading through again I'm missing it and really can't find anything that indicates Maxous-town. Everything he's giving feels very borderline and easily-faked. The problem with that is you never know if it's lazy town, lazy scum, or under-the-radar scum. 2/3 of those are scum, so I'm going to put Maxous in the leaning scum pile.Maxous:
Penguin's contribution to this game was practically nothing. I didn't like his start, and he wasn't around long enough to improve. Transcend's posts so far have been regurgitated reads with no explanation. I'd be completely fine with lynching this.Transcend:
I had a weak gut townread on texcat earlier. It was based on Post 58 seeming like genuine opinions. It was small, and I now feel like it is something tex would do as either alignment based on her posting style.texcat:
But the Flubbernugget vote is really, really bad. She gave no real indication she had any sort of read on Flubbernugget before the vote. Her vote was based on hypocrisy, not really alignment-indicative in any sense. But she's gung-ho about it, and sets Flub into what seems to me like a manipulated lose-lose scenario. I don't believe texcat actually has the opinion on Flub she claims to have. It's too flashy, too overconfident.
VOTE: texcat
Leaning Town: Making Flubber and Bella lean town is interesting to me. It doesn't commit to pinning Flub as town but says "I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget." I left Bella in for context of the earlier exchange.
Scum Reads:Way to play it safe.Somehow people are still holding on to Max-Scum. I personally don't see it but ok. Still holding on to PP Scum? Ok yeah I really can't see that atm. Riding the PP train feels a bit blatant considering we don't currently have a lot to go off of from Transcend.
Tex?!Are you sure? The one, safe bet for a scumread. "But they've been lurking!" C'mon man. This feels so strongly like it's the one wagon you could get away with shifting to. It feels dirty and I don't like it at all.
VOTE: Klick-
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That's actually a good question, please explain.
As a side note I want to mention I think the case on Athena istotal garbage.It's incredibly flimsy. Athena's been a solid poster as well. It feels like since no one really came out and townread her it made her a very good target (helpful + not favored by town).
I feel like this is very solid. I feel like out of Beefster and Athena, Beef is much more likely to be scum. If Athena was scum that would make this, what, omgus? This is way more solid than Beefster's case on Athena.In post 338, CultOfAthena wrote: I think Beefster is scum. His original vote on me only came after I called him out for his questioning being superficial, and since then it seems like he's had to come up with reasons to keep justifying his vote on me. Look at his response to mozamis:
I've highlighted what likely isn't true. First, the idea that Beefster had a slight scumlean on me that he "just didn't feel like mentioning" is doubtful, not just on face value but also on the fact that his reads list explicitly had a section for "scumleans" and one of them was explitly marked "slight" – if I was one of those slight scumleans before, why didn't he mention me there? Next, he says that "a couple more of my posts" solidified his scumlean on me, despite the fact that I only made one post inbetween his readslist and his vote.In post 249, Beefster wrote:Pfft. I had my reasons.I just didn't feel like expressing them at the time. In my big reads post, I had her as null. (she was initially town before I posted my reads) I described her as "good questions. not much else" andafter a couple more of her posts, it just solidified that her posts have been methodical and perhaps a little deceptive or misdirecting. I don't know if I can point to any particular post or line.
I haven't really been paying super close attention. I was juggling 2 other games with AGDQ.
Another thing I'd like to note is that I think I was right on the mark on Beefster "hedging" his read on me, given that he only resumed his push aftermultiplepeople declared that they didn't want a beefster wagon in response to his vote on me.-
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Ok so first off, @Klick:
Fantastic response. What I had been seeing from you had me worried but I was very much on the fence. I feel your reply was very solid and it's cleared me of any doubts. That said, UNVOTE: Klick.
Second:
Wow lets pump the breaks yeah. We havezero reason to assuming RC is being truthful. Remember scum picked the PRs. Scum-RC would know if there was no tracker and would be able to claim it un-cc'd.
I don't think Transcend pulling a cc stunt makes him guaranteed scum. There's town enough reasons to cc a PR. Especially when they do something like hardclaim D1.
I don't like Transcend appearing to flail around on page 19. It looks really bad to me. If I were to vote him it would be based on his performance here and not the sole fact that he cc'd.
RC is blatantly unhelpful by assuming their contributions are guaranteed to be helpful and that anyone who pushes them is automatically scum. It's forcing down everyone's throat that they are obviously such a hardcore town member that there's absolutely no possibility they are scum. It's like Thor on steroids.
However RC's seemingly self awareness of being miss lynched as town leads me to believe they are telling the truth. Unless that's part of the act. Either way we'll find out tomorrow, based on whether he is still in the game.
I realize each of these points seem to be contradictory. My main objective was to provide some alternate perspectives. However, allow me to elaborate:
- We can't solely judge Transcend as scum based off of the CC. We can however take into account PP's poor performance early game combined with him flailing about on Page 19.
- RC can't be automatically trusted cause they are un-cc'd. I think their play stile is outright detrimental to the town. However as they are self aware of this I'm willing to believe them until day 2.
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I want to wrap this up with an abbreviated, updated read list:
Town:
HWS: Hasn't given me any reasons to assume they are scum, they've been mostly helpful so far.
Klick: Very solid response in post 383, has me convinced.
CoA: Has been playing the game and has had very town reactions to everything so far.
Town Lean:
Thor: His posts more reccently feel more genuine, I'm willing to accept he is most likely town.
EP: Is at least trying to solve the game despite me disagreeing with them about CoA.
RC: Town until day 2.
Null:
Flub: Leaving him here until we can get more to go off of.
Max: Moved here due to a general lack of contribution. At least it feels that way, compared to a lot of the more active posters.
Tex: The one thing moz has said that I really agree with is in post 446. Her few posts left me feeling like she is trying but it's getting to be really hard to continue to see them as town.
Moz: I have no idea how to read moz. I feel like that may be a goal of his. His behavior is erratic and I very often find myself disagreeing with him. I'm not convinced that makes him scum as of right now, but I'm not going to pin him as town either.
Scum Lean:
Beef: He's been all over the place and I don't feel like he's been particularly helpful. Any time something interesting happens he goes off on his own tangent. It feels very off to me.
Transcend/PP: I still agree with CoA about PP in early game. I'm not a fan of the events that have transpired but I'm not sold just yet.-
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That's perfectly fair. I wanted to try something other than "throw out accusations and see what people have to say about them". I think it's good you picked up on that as it shows you're actually paying attention. I'm also glad you've come around on CoA.In post 501, Errantparabola wrote:
I know that I've been consistently suspicious of Moneybags for reasons that are almost entirely gut and probably confbias and I've been annoying about them but this makes me feel very bad.In post 489, Moneybags wrote:Fantastic response. What I had been seeing from you had me worried but I was very much on the fence. I feel your reply was very solid and it's cleared me of any doubts.
I doubt there is one scum in Transcend/RC, but that's just a gut thing, I guess we'll see.
If there's no scum out of Transcend/RC, do you think their may be scum surrounding the situation at all? If so, who?-
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That was me. Unless he said it too.In post 586, Maxous wrote:
Beefster is someone I change my mind about frequently. I'd lean town atm. He did say it's his first game in ages or whatever so that could explain some of the awkwardness-
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It's really hard to put into words without it sounding like I'm a jerk. I'm currently writing off moz as "he can't possibly not be town because there's no way scum would ever want to come off the way he is coming off". If his intention is to make me feel that way then he's clearly on another playing field, at least from where I'm standing.In post 648, Flubbernugget wrote:
Can you elaborate on this?In post 569, Moneybags wrote:If Moz is scum he's a mastermind.
I think RC said they disagreed and said it would be easy to fake. To which I concur, however that would mean moz is currently doing terrible as scum. And judging by his join date I find that less likely.
As a disclaimer I realize I'm probably reading way more into this than I should be. I just personally really think he's incredibly... "raw" as town. So raw it couldn't be faked without a lot of intentional, tactile planning.
Cause I went in with "hey now that I'm older maybe I'd be better at playing mafia" to the current "Nope I still have no idea what I'm doing."Flubbernugget wrote:Beefster's reevaluation doesn't look natural
Moneybags has these really strange tone inconsistencies where he goes from 100% literal and calm to awkward tinges of sarcasm and I'm suspicious of it, but can't pin a motivation to it atm.-
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I'm not sure I buy Beef's gambit. It feels like a hail mary to me. It's equally possible he could be telling the truth and is really just going to go along with it. In which case yes I agree it would be useless to confirm him as town. Which means if he's not scum then lynching him would indeed be a complete waste of time.RadiantCowbells wrote:VOTE: ErrantParabola
I think this is probably the best lynch right now.
Ok so I see your point. But why EP? I feel like we could do better than EP.-
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I say this not having an alternative I could probably sell you on. I just don't find EP particularly scummy?In post 667, Moneybags wrote:
I'm not sure I buy Beef's gambit. It feels like a hail mary to me. It's equally possible he could be telling the truth and is really just going to go along with it. In which case yes I agree it would be useless to confirm him as town. Which means if he's not scum then lynching him would indeed be a complete waste of time.RadiantCowbells wrote:VOTE: ErrantParabola
I think this is probably the best lynch right now.
Ok so I see your point. But why EP? I feel like we could do better than EP.-
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What's that first line supposed to mean? You say that like you know one is scum and the other isnt? In which case why are you so sure EP is scum all of a sudden? And now Tex? Why everyone but Beef now?In post 674, RadiantCowbells wrote:What do you mean there's no difference? They don't have the same role PM.
Is it possible that one could be scum and another could be town and by switching off the town we could end up lynching scum?-
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Sorry, that was meant as a follow up to the other post I had just made. Your's got sandwitched in between.In post 707, Thor665 wrote:
I'm talking about Flubber, not Transcend.In post 699, Moneybags wrote:I don't think we'll ever see 2 night kills. We'll never be sure.
I want to also say that I'd be willing to fold and go with a flub lynch because I feel like that's the only other one that will get us answers. EP or tex won't give us anything. They're lurkers, they have minimal interactions with everyone else. We won't get a lot if they're scum and even less if they're town.-
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How so? If EP flips town and we have 1 NK, where does that leave us?In post 709, Thor665 wrote:I actually think denigrating a lurker flip is anti-town. They're really actually just as good as the so-called "info flips" people tout.
That said, vote Flubber, I like that thought.-
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Sorry, I actually meant to respond to you. I see what you mean about the lynches, I agree with you.
I'm not sure if I agree with that exact argument about flub. I do think its time I get off the fence though, and I'm not sold on any of the other options. Scum being in the beef wagon makes a lot of sense vs anything else I've come up with.
Transcend if you go back and read coa's post where they voted you'll see they actually put effort in and had a solid reason to vote beef. If it's anyone in the wagon it's probably flub.
VOTE: Flubbernugget
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