Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Also, I have to say the hider is an interesting ability.
If you choose to hide behind someone then you currently have a 3/11 chance of dying. If you don't then you have a 1/11 chance of dying.
The only way it could possibly be useful is if they announced who they were going to hide behind before doing so, so like a self-sacrificial investigative role. This would be more dangerous to do later in the game however, so perhaps they should either play as a vanilla townie and not use their ability for the whole game or claim now and try to get killed to turn up scum. Also, was someone to do this and report people as innocent we could not be sure they weren't mafia making a fakeclaim.
Anyone else agree with this? The watcher should either play like a vanilla townie for the whole game or claim now, say who they tried to hide behind night one if anyone and who they intend to hide behind night two.
I thought about whether it was possible for the mafia to manipulate this i.e. kill them once they nominate in the thread that they will hide behind a townie, to incriminate the townie. But we would know if this happened because the mafia would not have nightkilled someone else also.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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I didn't suggest they should claim
I suggested it was one way they could play their role
And I really don't see how my points could be harmful to town- the hider is still free to play as they see fit. The fact remains, that unless they picked someone on night 0 who wasn't scum to hide behind, who is still alive and is going to be alive for a substantial proportion of the game, it seems as though by using their hide ability in the future they are more likely to die than if they don't.
That's a fair point about breadcrumbing but the fact remains even if the scum notice the breadcrumb they _cannot_ do anything about it. If the hider breadcrumbs and hides behind an innocent player, the scum can't kill them. If the hider breadcrumbs and hides behind a mafia player they will be dead. In fact this is more of a reason for the hider to claim- if they choose an innocent player they will definitely survive the night, if they choose a scummy one they will definitely not survive the night. EITHER of the rolecop or the watcher could confirm if they're telling the truth on that same night, and could stay silent and not claim unless the hider was lying.
To reiterate, if the hider claims and says who they will hide behind (and they can be verified by EITHER the watcher or the rolecop, who DON'T have to claim the following day unless they find that the hider is lying), then if they choose an innocent player, they will survive the night and the mafia can't attack them. If they choose a mafia player, they will die, and we will have exchanged a suicidal investigator for a mafia player (this is the _best_ outcome for this role, imo).
Please comment on this plan. I have some more ideas for contingencies but I don't want to put plans into the mafia's head.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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And when I say "best" outcome for this role obviously it's better if they clear multiple innocents *before* targetting a mafia player (who they can then confirm the next day, as they are guaranteed to be alive- the rolecop/watcher can also be contingencies against a mafia player fakeclaiming), but I'm saying there is no reason to be scared of hitting a mafia player. The _worst_ outcome for this plan is swapping a mafia player for an innocent day 1, the second worst outcome is getting a confirmed innocent day 2 and then swapping a mafia player for an innocent, the third worst outcome is getting two confirmed innocents days 2 and 3 and then swapping a mafia player for an innocent etc.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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If this is true then my plan is not going to work. Furthermore, if it is true I was not aware that this was the case as I have not played in a game with a hider previously. However I very much like this idea:bionicchop2 wrote:
The bolded part is what I consider the norm for a hider. The mod will need to clarify. All talks about announcing who the hider hides behind won't get us anywhere. If the mafia knows where the hider hides, they can get 2 kills in one night.wiki wrote:The Hider has the ability to target one player each night. If that player is pro-town, the hider is protected from Night-Kills that night.If the player targeted is killed that same night, the Hider dies too.If the player targeted is Mafia, the hider usually dies.
Does anyone have any reason we should not do this?afatchic wrote:okay to be honest i don't at all like ortolans idea of the PR's claiming right now. that just seems scummy to me. however, an idea that i like a little better, which was done in a game i just finished. is everyone fake claims as hider. and you say i hid behind (player) last night, so they are town. and then right before night everyone claims who they will hide behind if they were hider. so right now no one is cleared, and the mafia don't have a clue who the hider is, but whenever the hider dies, the town can go back and look at their reports and find who is actually cleared, and who the hider died behind.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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First of all; to repeat, when I say I did not suggest that they should claim, I mean I did not suggest this was the only option- I clearly stated that an alternative way of playing would be to go through the game as a vanilla townie. Secondly, as far as I saw it, based on the roles described by the mod, my plan was flawless. I have not played in a game with a hider role previously, and have no knowledge of what might be considered "conventions" for them. Thirdly, as this is an open setup, if it is true that the hider dies if they hide behind someone who is killed, then it seems a reasonable expectation that this fact might be mentioned by the mod in the "hider" description. Finally, you are talking as though it has actually been confirmed that the hider in this game functions the same way as it does in the wiki, rather than in the way implied by the mod's description. We still have not received clarification on this.camn wrote:
What is suspicious to me ort's seeming fixation on figuring out what to do with the Hider role.
First he says
thenThe watcher should either play like a vanilla townie for the whole game or claim now...
then launches into a convoluted plan, with statistics and everything, that is defeated by the wiki.I didn't suggest they should claim
THEN, when afatchic brings up his idea (which, to reiterate, Ilike), Ort grabs THAT and runs with it.
.. it all seemed suspect to me last night after getting home from the bar... and I have certainly gotten lynched for less
Mod: Does the hider die if on any particular night they hide behind someone who is killed on that same night?
I also find it amusing that you think that if I was scum I would try a ploy that could only work if no-one were to read the wiki.
Also how does the fact that I started supporting afatchic's plan as soon as I realised that mine was potentially flawed whereas his didn't seem to be suggest I am scum? As soon as the possible flaw in my plan was brought to my attention I reevaluated it.
Agree with your point about the watcher. I made basically the same point in relation to my original plan. Seeafatchic wrote:camn- sorry i misunderstood what you was trying to say, but i get it now. i also thought ort seemed very scummy with his behavior over the PR's, but it seemed somewhat newbish to me, just something to keep in mind though.
however i don't really agree with what TCS is saying. first by doing what i said, it would give an inno from last night upon the hiders death. if the hider dies, plus a nk on a person the hider didn't claim to hide behind, you have caught one mafia. finally, if the hider becomes so obvious that the mafia know who to shoot and get a double kill, then it should be obvious to the watcher, and yet again we catch a mafia. IMO this seems like the only way to make the most of the hider role.
So can you please explain how this plan is flawed....? FOS TCS
(post 55).ortolan wrote:To reiterate, if the hider claims and says who they will hide behind (and they can be verified by EITHER the watcher or the rolecop, who DON'T have to claim the following day unless they find that the hider is lying)
So this means that even if the wiki is correct, if the hider hid behind someone who was then killed by the mafia after reading what the hider would do in the thread, then the watcher would have watched the person whom the hider was hiding behind, and would be able to say the next day which mafia player killed them. Of course, this is still not a very good outcome for town, because it entails the watcher dying, another townie (who might be the rolecop) dying, and the watcher having to claim in return for one mafia player.
The same point applies to afatchic's plan however- if multiple people claim they will hide behind the same person, then the watcher should target this person. This way if the scum try to target that person then the watcher will at least be able to identify them, as would have been the case in my original plan.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Oh, also:
Please back up the assertion that discussing the setup (especially in an _open_ setup game) is a scum-tell. All that my discussion of the setup has lead to so far is the hypoclaim plan, which everyone agrees will benefit town.camn wrote:
Oh, and Ortolan is back with a FURY!
I know bionic quoted it for you.. but it is true. The Hider operates as usual.
And at this point I don'tparticularlythink you are scum. I just think you make bad decisions. But you COULD be newbie-scum just as well as newbie-town. . so don't try and weasel around it that way
Excessive Worrying about setup is a common scum-tell IMO..... that is all.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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You're welcome to your opinions but I would expect them to have some basis, especially when you announce them to the town. There's no benefit to just giving your "instincts" to the town without justification, it's just like saying "I find him scummy" without offering any reasoning to back up the claim, it's only counter-productive for town.camn wrote:Make your own list.
And it's not an assertion, its an opinion. That's what IMO means.
I will write it out for you next time.
Well maybe you did have decent reasons for suspecting me for discussing the setup, but did not make them explicit. In response to your points: if I was mafia, would I come up with such an obvious scheme to try to glean who the hider is? I personally would give myself more credit. But yes, I do take your point that it may possibly make people more likely to slip up and reveal their role. Thankfully that has not happened in this case and it has instead led to a constructive hypoclaiming scheme.camn wrote:It comes from the idea that there is nothing pro-town about figuring out who the power roles are on Day 1.. because then they end up dead. But the scum shure would like to know who they are.
And excessive discussion about setup often leads to somebody slipping up and hinting as to their role. It gives the scum info. And with very little benefit to us. But that's just often, not always.
But I admit.. this claiming thing is interesting. I usually play straight.. but this is fun, too.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Wait...you just totally misrepresented what I said. I said speculating about the roles (I don't see why this is surprising at all, we're in an open setup so it seems quite an obvious path) could lead to good outcomes (as, I would argue, it has in this case). Alternatively, I have to acknowledge, it might *potentially* have led to someone slipping up and outing their role inadvertently. But that's like most tactics in this game- they can serve your purposes, or they can backfire. Of course, in this case, it didn't, so we've got a good outcome and seemingly no negatives (so what's the problem?...).camn wrote:
I don't give you more credit. Why would I?ortolan wrote:In response to your points: if I was mafia, would I come up with such an obvious scheme to try to glean who the hider is? I personally would give myself more credit.
You insist, even now, that speculating on roles is a pro-town move.
Yet, in the same breath, you agree that it is hazardous.
The only reason I "did not make it explicit" is because, in 75% of games I have played here.. you would have been lynched already. I'm not the crazy one here.
So.. which is is? Is my point valid.. or is it not? That is a serious question.
A rhetorical one: Are you seriously using "I give myself more credit" as a defense for acting scummy?
I, sir, have spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder........
And saying I would have been lynched in 75% of games (a pretty damn big assertion and one which I don't actually believe) may be the case, but that doesn't mean that it would have been a good decision.
And I'm not using "I give myself more credit" as a defence against acting scummy, because I don't acknowledge that I've acted scummy.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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You get a rolefishing vibe from me acknowledging the danger? Or you get a rolefishing vibe from me discussing the setup in the first place?
Anyhow, you needn't worry, I didn't get any information about roles from the discussion anyway if that's what you were worried aboutCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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On the contrary, I would argue me asking people to explain their suspicions towards me when I am in no immediate danger of being lynched is good play- I think they should back up what they say if they're trying to plant the idea I might be scummy.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Yes, that's what I was implying, if they can subtly lay suspicion at my feet today and get a townie lynched today then tomorrow they can say "oh look @ ortolan he's played scummy all game" and refer back to their meritless earlier postsCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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I just mean in general people scum can try to spread distrust around and lay the groundwork for a future lynch by launching pseudo-cases against you using FoS etc. and then later in the game try to refer back to them to pursue a lynch. I am saying by questioning these sorts of votes when they happen, even if one is not in direct danger it forces people to explain their reasoning so this sort of thing is harder for scum to do.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Hi, I just read back over the whole game.
I have to ask you something afatchic. See post 59
Post 106:afatchic wrote:okay to be honest i don't at all like ortolans idea of the PR's claiming right now. that just seems scummy to me. however, an idea that i like a little better, which was done in a game i just finished. is everyone fake claims as hider. and you say i hid behind (player) last night, so they are town. and then right before night everyone claims who they will hide behind if they were hider. so right now no one is cleared, and the mafia don't have a clue who the hider is, but whenever the hider dies, the town can go back and look at their reports and find who is actually cleared, and who the hider died behind.
In the first post you say you just finished a game with a hider (and you even proposed the hypoclaim based on that game), then in the second you say you've never played with a hider before. I don't understand?...afatchic wrote:This is the first game i have played with a hider, so i really don't have any idea about it, which is why i am asking questions.
Also, TCS, is your suspicion of OP/PS85 intended seriously?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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TCS; you seem to be saying that of your four suspects, you only really have a case against one (the machine- that's bionicchop2 right?)
I saw your jokevotes against OP and Panda and somehow they seem to have evolved into a real suspicion now, and I don't see what they've done to warrant it- apart from possibly lurking, but I was under the impression that was widely considered a null-tell.
Mod: I think we need a replacement for Panda Stomper, he hasn't posted in a week and a half.
Before I comment on this:
Which post were you referring to? Post 70?I think that in post four he may have been subtly encouraging the watcher to claim, a tactic which I disagree with thoroughly. Watchers/cops should almost never claim, I think; they should simply make it obvious who they investigated should they end up dead. Were I watcher, and not hider, this is how I would play the game.
What did you notice that made you change your mind?The Fatty
I honestly didn’t like his vote-hop to me. But after a re-read, I get a more neutral to pro-town read from him.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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camn wrote:
Now understand this.. I think EVERYONE is scum.afatchic wrote:Camn im confused, who do you think is scummiest?
But my scummiest? these. Though I by no means am calling for their lynch at this time.
Xtoxm. - for saying "I don't like this wagon". I see scum say that all. the. time. To me.... attacking the wagon seems weird. Why not defend the person? Or attack the people ON the wagon? It always reeks of trying to look town. I know, "too townie" is not a scumtell.. but still.
ortolan - as discussed.
Panda Stomper - I also know that Lurking is a null-tell.. but I am pretty firmly in the Nuke-All-Lurkers camp. I know it's wrong, but it feels so good.
Now your turn, fatchic! Who, and why?
camn, would you mind explaining how this relates to your previously posted list (195)?
He just did that in a game of mine also, lolIcemanE wrote: I've only seen a player successfully pull off a move like this once - it was vollkan in a game that's currently ongoing, so I can't get too into the details, but he self-voted to draw attention to himself
I would normally have thought the ploy of getting on the bandwagon and then saying it was a trap was kind of a really dodgy post-hoc justification but it seems relatively well argued in this instance.
I think it's on the whole pro-town. The only bad possibility that can come from it is that scum see enough people who said they hid behind them on previous nights (i.e. lying) and then can work out who the hider is to get a double kill. I would hope the watcher would be involved if that occurred however.icemanE wrote:I still can't see anything anti-town or pro-scum about the hypo plan.
Fine, I'll see where this goes.Xtoxm wrote:Not liking Ice's case. Think it does look a bit scum motivated.
Still like my vote though, it's not random. To clarify, It is not in place for the reasons I origally stated.
Vote: Crazy-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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I agree with bionicchop2 in that someone *has* to occupy the third and fourth votes on a bandwagon (assuming there are 4+ votes). I don't think in this case it's sufficient to judge that they're not town specifically (we don't know that TCS is actually town, for one).Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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icemanE wrote:In a quick reread I noticed that they were the two major proponents of the hypoclaim plan. I'm trying to think of a possible scum motivation for suggesting this plan. It is ostensibly protown, from what I can tell. However, they had N1 to discuss how they'd proceed. I will mull it over.
What made you modify your opinion of the hypoclaim plan between these two posts?icemanE wrote: that, and I still can't see anything anti-town or pro-scum about the hypo plan.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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You'd be better off just reading the thread. Why did you ask me and bionicchop2 specifically for a summary, also?Haschel Cedricson wrote:Greetings, everyone.
Before I read this game, I want bionicchop2 and ortolan to give me a summary of the game so far.
I still have bio and afatchic as leaning towards town. afatchic proposed the hiders idea. His play is also quite contrarian- he has targetted a lot of players for different reasons. This would attract a fair bit of attention if he was scum, so I find it *reasonably* unlikely he is.
my reason for thinking bionic is town is that he defended Crazy initially in response to the silly votes placed on him for reminding the mod of the setup. Also he proposed an idea about watchers based on this setup which seemed to have potential- I find it somewhat unlikely he would mention this were he scum.
I am neutral on icemanE (not in a bad way). He still hasn't responded to my last post (218).
I think TCS' reasoning has been pretty horrible/non-existent throughout the game. I dislike his earlier mentioned non-cases against "the penguin, the panda and the fatty". And I dislike his willingness to "get the day over with". That sort of vibe could you get lynched easily in another game and I find it surprising he wouldn't be more cautious about openly taking this position- especially as he's been a member for 2+ years.
I do get a slightly worrying contentless-posting, lurky vibe from OP but it may be consistent with his meta.
I meant it to be in reference to this:StrangerCoug wrote:FoS: ortolanfor not giving reasons for his vote, and it comes off to me as if it was done out of appeasement.
I thought Xtoxm was hinting at role-related reasons for his vote. He hasn't since clarified and no-one seems to have commented on this. I am left wondering what Xtoxm's undisclosed reasons are. I certainly didn't intend it out of appeasement- I currently get a neutral vibe out of Xtoxm- I would prefer if his posts had more content. I also agree with Crazy's most recent post (225), about bio and also OP to an extent. I wish he/Xtoxm would comment on what Xtoxm said earlier though.Xtoxm wrote:Not liking Ice's case. Think it does look a bit scum motivated.
Still like my vote though, it's not random. To clarify, It is not in place for the reasons I origally stated.-
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I wasn't going to indulge him either in case I got something wrong then got accused, but I'll have a go: this is just from memory so correct me if I'm wrong.
Mod made mistake with game- was meant to be night start- Crazy called this, was accused by some for paying attention to the setup.
I suggested plan involving hiders- several people commented on a loophole I was unaware of and deemed it scummy. afatchic proposed alternative hypoclaim idea which was agreed on by town. everyone went through with it, someone (I think StrangerCoug, not sure) chose to hide behind the same person nights 1 and 2 which implied he wasn't the hider, this was thought slightly scummy.
camn suspected me for something or rather, I can't recall.
there was a TCS bandwagon which icemanE was the second on- bionicchop2 and afathich followed and then icemanE voted/fosed them with a quote from the wiki about being 3rd/4th on a wagon. bionicchop2 then claimed he had been setting a trap for icemanE. This was deemed by several people a bad move unless one is a mason.
I think TCS is "most likely to be lynched" at the moment. That is all.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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^^ lol
Have you been reading? Haschel asked for a summary- I said I'd give him one from memory. It was intended to be objective rather than personal opinion and I forgot that bionicchop2 had surpassed you in votes. The post was not an attempt to give my "opinion".How about instead of "most likely to be lynched," you point out the player that you think should be lynched.
No, it's apparent what the purpose of the post was if you'd been reading- to comply with Haschel's request. I don't accept your criticism as it clearly shouldn't be treated as a "normal post". As I'm currently probably most likely to vote for you, when I do I can assure you I'll give reasons.This looks like one of those soft, trying-to-appear-in-the-game posts that I really don't like, because if the situation arose you could jump onto my bandwagon and say that this post was tantamount to a FOS, but otherwise you've really made no contribution to the game.-
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What makes you so sure I'm town?StrangerCoug wrote:OK, here's my two sense after looking at this OP guy:
It's hard for me to picture town theorizing about scum motives like this. What I'm getting from this post is that orangepenguin knows ortolan is town and therefore is trying to distance from a mislynch.orangepenguin wrote:I think they're saving you for later, IMO. Getting the idea that you're scummy out there, so they can set up a lynch on you later, assuming you're town and they are scum. If they aren't scum, then I don't think they're doing that, but just my interpretation.
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I *sort of* see the case against OP. However, I think this sort of play is very consistent with his meta- take a look at his profile and you can see him getting accused of exactly the same "active lurking" in a different current game. That said, I don't think this sort of lurking should be an excuse to ride the game out to the end, but I still feel his lynch is based mainly on policy currently.
I agree with this also, actually. I assume you're referring to Prisoner's Dilemma (it's finished, don't worry) which I read most of. Even then, the fact OP displayed intelligence in an action unrelated to his lurkiness can't really be applied to this game- it's not really an example of him "not lurking" and this having good consequences for this town.TCS wrote:Well, if you were, in fact, reading this thread, you might have had something to say about me insisting that PandaStomper85 was scummy even though he posted next to nothing. Or you might have had an opinion about Haschel C. asking for people to summarize the game for him. Or you could have had an opinion about my wagon, or Iceman's citation of wiki, or bionic's "trap," or bionic's discounting of the wiki.
Instead, your posts have been pretty much without content. Your longest post of the game prior to this was to attack lurker-lynching, which I suppose makes sense since you are quite intentionally lurking, it seems. I've posted your entire contribution up to this point. I don't think that I need to drive the point home that your posting in this game has been severely lacking in opinions about who the scum are.
Here's the rub: I know that you don't completely lack opinions or thoughts on things. I just saw you single-handedly win a game for the town because you correctly labeled two players as scum, when the entire town was hoodwinked, and without the benefit of investigation. Surely you have an opinion about something in this game.
I still prefer a TCS lynch. Here's why:
Firstly, his previously dealt-with non-cases against OP, Panda Stomper, afatchic and bionic (I think).
In posts 237, 239 and 240 he suggests a link between Haschel and bionic and myself. This seems incredibly baseless to me- while Haschel's request was kind of wierd I don't see why anyone would try to interpret something as obvious as this as a "signal".
Finally, in post 281 he votes for OP having had the way cleared by afatchic, who previously was one of TCS' "top suspects". This is despite him only a few pages before in Post 236 saying:
TCS is throwing his suspicions around as much as possible, jumping from player to player. While this is not in itself scummy, he seems to be drawing as much attention to himself in doing it as possible e.g. take this case:You should all be well aware at this point that I'm totally for lynching HC or bionic.
He seems to be making a point of how aggressive he's being to every one- he even FoSs StrangerCoug for unvoting him. While a lot of townies play devil's advocate like this, I also don't like his readiness in riding wagons- he never seems at all skeptical about them. About the only thing he's been consistent on this game is trying to get Panda Stomper/ Haschel lynched. Even in this case he's been happy to switch to the OP wagon after afatchic cleared the ground.The Central Scrutinizer wrote:StrangerCoug wrote:Unvote: The Central Scrutinizersince it's not doing anything.FOS:StrangerCoug
Am I scummy? If not, then why were you voting me in the first place? If so, they why did you unvote me without revoting elsewhere? Do you have a better lynch candidate than me?
If not, please do the townie thing and revote me.
Overall I don't see how such aggressive play can help the town, especially when it's given with so few reasons and is as bandwagonny as his.
Vote: The Central Scrutinizer
I agree, it's a bit odd.bionicchop2 wrote:@crazy - really need more participation from you. I don't remember you being this inactive last time we played in the same game. For someone who really liked the setup, you don't seem to be paying attention to it.-
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When did I say I am voting for him for his style of play hurting the town, "even if he is townie"? I am saying "I don't see how this style of play could help the town, therefore I think he is scum."afatchic wrote:
Do you really need someone to answer this question for you?camn wrote:Then why, pray tell, are you good for the town, even if you AREN'T scum?
Are you suggesting that he will hurt the town, even if he is townie? we have ways to prove allignment, so a lynch because they are harmful to the down is a bunch or crap.ortolan wrote:Overall I don't see how such aggressive play can help the town, especially when it's given with so few reasons and is as bandwagonny as his.
anyways.... congrats, you both just hit scum tell number 1. so with that comes...
UNVOTE VOTE CAMN, why would you EVER want to lynch a townie, regardless of how distracting they may be?
FOS ORTOLAN
FoS: afatchicfor taking an incredibly dodgy interpretation of my post and positing it as a scumtell. I also immensely dislike you lazily lumping me and camn together as though we are only worthy of a singular reply.-
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Meh, I don't really like your case against me, and most of the points have already been made by other people.
My comment that you should full-claim was because saying "it will sure hurt the town otherwise" seemed kinda scummy to me. Note I am not saying you are scum, but I didn't like you saying that and thought it would have been better just to outright roleclaim. I obviously wasn't the only person to say that at that point.
However I still don't think you're particularly scummy. I feel if you were trying to simply divert attention from yourself you would have voted for someone else who already had votes on them- rather than me, who had none. So I don't think your case against me is opportunistic. It's also reasonably plausible that you changed your tune on afatchic halfway through writing up your case.
But basically your case against me amounts to me discussing the setup excessively. From my meta, as I believe Crazy was referring to, I probably discuss setup more than average.
I can say I still like my vote and might also post cases on some other people soon.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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camn I am suspicious of your intense bandwagon hopping- on OP, off OP, on OP again, off after he claims then back onto me. Your reasons for voting for me are similar to OP's (apparent rolefishing through extensive discussion of the setup), and I still intend to use meta as a defence (what more can I do?). It's also ironic that while you accuse me of rolefishing my plan led to no roles being claimed, and the only role that's been revealed so far has come from the you/TCS + others bandwagon against OP. Even then I don't think an accusation of "rolefishing" is very substantial, I'd like you to come up with something more. And I'm keen on hearing Crazy's case on you.
afatchic: see post 324 for my reasons for voting for TCS, it's still recent (page 13)
Remember when I say "Overall I don't see how such aggressive play can help the town, especially when it's given with so few reasons and is as bandwagonny as his." I mean "deliberately not helping the town" i.e. implying it is scummy, rather than merely unintentionally non-townish.
For reference all TCS has said in reply to that post was:
Was that (lack of) response justified?My only real defense against ort's accusations would be pretty WIFOM, and I'm not going to engage in that.
That and TCS still has some bizarre fixation with OP + Panda Stomper/Haschel which dates back to an apparent joke in post 48 and *clearly* stems from nothing:
As recently as post 338 he has said:The Central Scrutinizer wrote:
This argument has my full support.StrangerCoug wrote:Once again,vote: Panda Stomper 85until he tells me what happened to Panda Stompers 1 through 84.vote: Panda Stomper 85
Also,FOS: orangepenguinfor making light of this serious line of questioning.
This is entirely illogical in light of the fact he could have had no possible reason for *genuinely* suspecting them when he first voted/FoSed them in post 48.My initial impression of this game has not changed. Haschel Cedricson and orangepenguin are my top suspects. Haschel has redeemed himself somewhat in my eyes, and orangepenguin has not.
However, I am not going to allow myself to get completely tunneled into these players, as many of my previous posts, which you characterize as hopping, exemplify. I am confident that one or the other of these players is scum, just as I am confident that we will lynch correctly when the time comes.
My vote on orangepenguin remains, and my tight-but-aggressive play remains, because I like to win games.-
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This is probably subjective but I don't see it...do you think for example his fixation on OP/Haschel since the game started and with a clear lack of reasons is justified?camn wrote:Plus, in the TCS vs. Ort deal.. I think TCS has brought better analysis, and is thus more USEFUL to the town.. . but this could change.
Yes, it is possible his play is consistent with his meta, which I haven't looked at. I still think his play to date is worthy of a vote.bionicchop2 wrote:- TCS can be found making posts with unsound logic in many games. I misread him as scum in my one prior game with him. He may be scum, but there is no convincing case of it. Right now I see him as a convenient place for scum votes (not to say all voting him are scum).-
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Why are you voting for me then?camn wrote:Plus I still like Ort.
I agree about Xtoxm. I supported his hint about Crazy with a vote but he's given nothing at all to support it subsequently. Xtoxm really does post too little. I have noted other players' points that it is consistent with his meta, however.camn wrote:Xtoxm is still on. I know it's redundant, but I have gotten really burned lately by SCUM not posting that much. I think it is common for the town to get fixated on people who are "actually playing" and they end up ignoring lurking scum.
And Xtoxm hasn't had more than , like, 2-line post since..... ever.
Anyway, minimal posting aside... he has a vote on Crazy for UNKNOWN reasons...
He TWICE has simply disagreed with wagons, without any better Ideas or any input at all, really. I totally have seen scum do that just to look good after a mislynch.Still like my vote though, it's not random. To clarify, It is not in place for the reasons I originally stated.
BUT... although I would love to question him at length,
a) He is hardly around to answer.. and
b) I don't have time. You, Bionic, might think 3 days is a lot.. but I have finals next week... and I am flying to LA this weekend.. and I have ALREADY been playing mafia too much!! You guys are killing my test scores!
I don't understand your role claim though, seems like there was hardly any pressure on you at all apart from a vote for Crazy. I wasn't even reciprocating your vote on me... You weren't "practically on L-1" in the slightest. But the act of your role claim is ambiguous- it could be panicky scum which is a bit of a long bow or it could be something to do with exam stress etc.-
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If you are indeed vanilla and don't get lynched, then the fact you've claimed may have moderately bad results for the town by increasing the likelihood of scum hitting power roles by knowing not to target you.And my claim is because I am tied for a deadline lynch. Which is effectively L-1. And I am not going to have a lot of time to deal with things this week. . . so I thought I would throw it out there. It's easy when you are vanilla!
Additionally, I don't see why you needed to claim at that point. It's the sort of thing it's only really necessary to do if you have a power role and thus need to avoid being lynched, and even then the timing was amiss. In contrast, I for example, have the same number of votes on me as you and as yet have no compulsion to claim.-
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True, but it also applies after night 1. And also to be clear I wasn't suggesting her claiming was scummy, more that it was moderately bad based on policy.afatchic wrote:
Im pretty sure they hit Power role tonight (OP) unless he is hider, then it may be a no kill or double kill.ortolan wrote:
If you are indeed vanilla and don't get lynched, then the fact you've claimed may have moderately bad results for the town by increasing the likelihood of scum hitting power roles by knowing not to target you.And my claim is because I am tied for a deadline lynch. Which is effectively L-1. And I am not going to have a lot of time to deal with things this week. . . so I thought I would throw it out there. It's easy when you are vanilla!
I don't know which post HC quoted this from but this argument is valid (the premises entail that conclusion) but not sound (you have offered no evidence for premise 1, premise 2 isn't proven either but can be assumed for the time being based on the claim). So I would like to see the evidence for your first premise, that "One of orangepenguin or Haschel Cedricson is scum".Haschel Cedricson wrote:
Check your premises.The Central Scrutinizer wrote:So yeah...unvote, vote: Haschel Cedricson
P1: One of orangepenguin or Haschel Cedricson is scum.
P2: Orange penguin is not scum.
Ergo, HC is scum.-
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That was the whole idea- I thought it would be helpful to town but as I was unaware of the specifics of the hider role it was interpreted by some as rolefishingCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Agreed. But TCS is not helping by refusing to give justification for his continual tunneling on HC/OP.
I am suspicious of camn's sudden change of tune about me. It seems to be based more on the fact afatchic and bionic seem to now think I am town, rather than their arguments.
fyi, the two points afatchic made for me being unlikely to be scum:
had in fact already been made by me as far back as posts 92:Yeah, i doubt that was too much role fishing, since he was more of asking the town how we could use the hider the best way. also, i think it was about his first week on the site when it happened, so you may even pass if of as just newbish. but either way... i don't really think he is the lynch for today.
and 117:First of all; to repeat, when I say I did not suggest that they should claim, I mean I did not suggest this was the only option- I clearly stated that an alternative way of playing would be to go through the game as a vanilla townie. Secondly, as far as I saw it, based on the roles described by the mod, my plan was flawless. I have not played in a game with a hider role previously, and have no knowledge of what might be considered "conventions" for them. Thirdly, as this is an open setup, if it is true that the hider dies if they hide behind someone who is killed, then it seems a reasonable expectation that this fact might be mentioned by the mod in the "hider" description.
As such it's somewhat ironic you should say:Please back up the assertion that discussing the setup (especially in an _open_ setup game) is a scum-tell. All that my discussion of the setup has lead to so far is the hypoclaim plan, which everyone agrees will benefit town.
...and then unvote. I had already made similar arguments in my defence. Your unvote seems more likely to be due to you realising weren't going to get the support of town in lynching me, at least today, and thus backed off, rather than agreeing with the actual argument afatchic presented.I tend to agree with you about Ort, afatchic.... but I would have loved to see the defense come from him, rather than anyone else!
Oh well.
UNVOTE. . for clarity.
I don't like how you're so sure of TCS' alignment. It could be a scum move to look good when he flips town. He has in fact given good reasons for voting for him- his unexplained tunneling on HC/OP in the absence of a claim seems good enough. But there are other things, like his dodgy attack on bionic (post 412):Just did a quick read on TCS, though.. and I don't see him as scum. ...
I, of course, would rather see Xtoxm hang.. but we don't have the time.
I have a bad feeling about this day!
Something just occurred to me, actually, that it would be explained if he was a watcher, watched KMD night one and both OP and HC targetted him. It would surprise me though if TCS had left this until the deadline day with him as the leading lynch to claim this however. (Again, this is not rolefishing- this is the only valid explanation I see for TCS' actions without supporting evidence).Also...fos: bionic.
In this hypoclaim strategy, it would ultimately behoove the hider to hide behind scum.
Unvotepending response from TCS, he needs to explain his position on OP/HC now though.
Finally, I agree about lurkers- both xtoxm and Crazy have lurked too much and posted too little of content.
Seconding bionic's request for knowledge of when the deadline is.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Even if he's going to get lynched otherwise? It seems at this point we're either going for a no lynch or a lynch of TCS (camn has said she would vote him, I only unvoted him due to my interpreted roleclaim)- if we're going to lynch TCS he should claim- if we're happy to no lynch then he shouldn't.Also, very good catch on why TCS may be stuck up on them, however i think he probably shouldn't confirm this today.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I think it's hard to read Post 472 as anything more than WIFOM
Even then, I'd actually be slightly more inclined to believe it's deliberately misleading i.e. the scum were the ones *not* voting for himCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I agree and was considering posting similar on the first two points, but we already knew he was the rolecop because if he was the hider he would have died when Kmd was killedCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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your idea has potential, but bear in mind that the mafia have better odds of guessing the hider than town do- they know if someone has previously claimed to hide behind mafia and lived that this person is not the hider.afatchic wrote:also, i haven't really thought this one through all the way, but what if we do a quick no lynch, let the hider clear one more, or find a mafia, and then we are guaranteed a win.
Nevertheless I will start the night three hypoclaim (the no lynch doesn't have to folllow). I ask two things- Crazy and OP please don't bother claiming as we know you're not the hider, and it limits who we have to choose from to hide behind. Secondly please ensure that you choose to hide behind a different person from either of night 1 or 2.
Here is the original list but I believe some people changed after it so tell us if you did:
Tonight I will hide behind icemanE.camn wrote:
hypoclaim n1 wrote:
bionicchop2--->camn
camn---------->Bionic
TCS------------->Crazy
StrangerCoug--->orangepenguin
afatchic--------->icemanE
orangepenguin-->Xtoxm
Xtoxm------------>camn
icemanE------->afatchic
Crazy-------->Panda Stomper 85
ortolan-------->Bionic
hypoclaim n2 wrote:
bionicchop2---->Xtoxm
camn------------>afatchic
TCS------------->Panda Stomper 85
StrangerCoug--->orangepenguin
afatchic--------->StrangerCoug
orangepenguin-->ortolan
Xtoxm--------->icemanE
icemanE----->StrangerCoug
Crazy--------->TCS
ortolan--------->camn-
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Actually, sorry, I realised I hadn't read the last 1-2 pages properly.
I actually agree with bionic's post 526:
If the hider claims and is not counter-claimed then we have 3 cleared townies, including the hider themselves (because there is no chance of the hider giving us redundant information, because if they hid behind someone who was nightkilled they would have already died also). On scum counter-claiming hider: firstly this may very well be impossible or obviously true based on the hypoclaim choices. Secondly even if there are multiple claims and we somehow lynch the wrong person we can lynch the fakeclaiming scum the next day with no hassles. Finally, looking at the hypoclaims, it looks like at least one of *my* most likely scum suspects will be cleared by this process, giving at least me more info.I think the hider needs to be discussed - claim vs. continue hypoclaim 1 more day vs. don't do either.
I think process of elimination for scum will allow them to deduct who the hider is. We know camn has a spreadsheet. She may be scum. Scum may also have the hypoclaim laid out.
We have 9 players. Remove 2 scum and there are 7 possible. Remove role cop and you have 6. Remove crazy (if town) and you have 5. Remove xtoxm (if town - since he claimed townie) and you have 4. Remove camn who claimed townie and you have 3.
Hider is one of afatchic, bionicchop2, icemanE, ortolan, StrangerCoug minus the 2 scum (unless the 2 scum are accounted for elsewhere - camn, xtoxm, crazy).
Scum can also use the hypoclaim in reverse by eliminating people who said they hid behind scum.
I think it is possible scum already knows hider and I would not be against a claim today. If we decide not to claim, then I would say we do not continue the hypoclaim because it may give scum an easy double kill.
Now, if hider does claim, it can narrow down our suspects to 5 players (Role cop is clear, hider is clear, 2 townies would be clear - assuming no overlaps) giving a 40% shot on a completely random lynch. Hider can then either proceed to claim targets attempting to hide behind scum (risk double kill vs. finding scum) or just hide without claiming and target someone they know is town (33% double kill shot for scum) or random hide.
Furthermore as bionic says I think there's a very good chance scum already know who the hider is, which will just lower our odds of winning by the double nightkill. I advocate a hider claim at this point.-
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Yes, I agree, imo the hider should be claiming today
camn claimed vanilla on day 1bionicchop2 wrote:
You read properly. Afatchic wrote improperly. OP has never checked camn.ortolan wrote:Oh and furthermore my astonishment in post 544 was explained by me not having read properlyCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I just gave them in the preceding post...bionicchop2 wrote:so, hider says jump and everybody jumps?
vote camnas a follow over from yesterday. Ortolan, I would like to know your reasons for voting crazy.
Xtoxm I would like to know yours which were never expresed yesterday.
I didn't think you were scum, and thus the scum are to be found in Crazy, xtoxm and I wouldn't rule out camn either. However, I prefer either of Crazy or xtoxm first (for lurking very hard thoughout the game, and camn did at least facilitate the hypoclaim) and as afatchic already began the bandwagon on Crazy, I was happy to follow
I would also be happy to switch to xtoxm...
I will consider changing/ further supporting my vote as I read the more recent posts
I haven't been ignoring her as a suspect...BC2 wrote:1. Camn - could drop down, but I feel like everybody is ignoring her as a suspect. Could be the posting style of overly joking that has my read on scum.
I honestly don't understand why you've been tunneling on me since you first started to post actual cases- most of the points you made to begin with were arguments that had already made by others and I believe shown to not hold much weight. There's also the evidence for me being town that I was very forceful in wanting TCS lynched until I interpreted that he was the hider, I don't see what scum could possibly have to gain by putting that information on the table freely.OP wrote:I don't think we should rule out ortolan as scum. If ort is scum, I am thinking his partners (either bio or xtoxm) are trying to get the idea that ort is town out there, that way, when either of them is eventually lynched, there partner is saved for the win. Now, I think there is a good chance crazy is scum still.
On the hider thing: I agree with xtoxm: if fat tells us who he's going to hide behind then the scum definitely get two night-kills no matter what (and we have no watchers so if the person they hide behind is town we get no information and just gave the mafia another kill). Furthermore all this does is bring the game into even numbers and I believe it's better to maintain odd numbers? At the moment we are on 7 townies 2 scum. If the hider tells us who he's going to hide behind and they're town, and we misslynch, then tomorrow we're on 4 townies 2 scum, and if we misslynch again we lose. However if the hider doesn't tell us who he's going to hide behind (or even just doesn't hide behind anyone so whatever happens the scum can only get one night kill that night), and we misslynch, then we've got 5 townies to 2 scum, and can go another day on 3 townies to 2 scum even if we misslynch. Thus I don't think the benefits of using the hider as a kamikaze cop in any outweigh the benefits. In fact, with the extra day allowed in the worst case scenario by the hider not hiding, in allowing us an extra misslynch, we are getting the detective function we could have gotten from the hider anyway. Please question me if this is not clear. But I'm certainly not in favour of the hider telling us who he will hide behind.
Perhaps I misinterpreted the post where you placed me under continued suspicious. I certainly would have thought from that that you'd have me higher than a 4.ETA: Put camn at 5, with ort at 4.
And after re-reading I'm still happy with either Crazy or xtoxm, perhaps I lean slightly towards xtoxm now after post 600 (I still trust bionic, even though this post may be mere wifom)
so at this stage
+3 xtoxm
+2 Crazy
+1 camn
I will reconsider bionic though to see if I've misinterpreted him as town-
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Actually I just realised that's kind of contradictory that I agree with xtoxm about the hider yet still find him very scummy
I might have more to say in a whileCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Um, no. Especially if the mafia expect you to hide they will not target you.If i don't hide, then i just die tonight.
But now I think about it actually I'm not sure.
if you randomly choose someone you have a 2/9 chance of dying from hiding behind scum + a 1/6 chance of hiding behind someone who gets night-killed (assuming scum don't try to target you also, if they did then it would only be a 1/7 chance of hiding behind someone who gets night-killed assuming you hid behind someone at all). This is around a 39% chance of dying now I think about it, and if you didn't breadcrumb this would reveal nothing to us at all.
Instead if you choose from this list of five:
bio camn crazy ort xtoxm
which I assume will be a list of four after today's lynch, then you have a 1/2 chance of dying and outing scum in the process, and a 1/2 chance of getting night-killed along with the townie you hid behind. So actually I reckon there's a good argument for using your role as a suicide cop, considering we've got numbers on our side at the moment. Any comments, have I got my maths wrong?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
Feel free to PM me to be ready in case I need a replacement.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4158
- Joined: October 27, 2008
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ortolan Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4158
- Joined: October 27, 2008