Mini Normal 1976 - The Firsts - Night 2[End Jan 8]

[profii]

Hey guys how’s it going?

[profii]

The answer is both are scum. I'm inclined to flashwagon TIAM now to get more accurate reads.

Actually, let's do this

VOTE: PsykoSavant

Last to the wagon is scum

Did you go from TIAM to Psyko within 3 minutes there?
Given they are the 2 different sides of the debate that has taken up most of the game so far, any reason you jumped from 1 side to the other there?

[profii]

Did you go from TIAM to Psyko within 3 minutes there?
Given they are the 2 different sides of the debate that has taken up most of the game so far, any reason you jumped from 1 side to the other there?

It's not weird if he thinks both are scum. You're starting to sound like someone intentionally avoiding the elephant in the room.

I actually totally agree with psyko about 2inam's opening post. However when assuming 2inam is scum the rest of the game so far doesn't make a lot of sense. If you take a moment and just look at the thread assuming 2inam is town, the narrative seems to make more sense. This wagon is manufactured. It does not read like a natural bandwagon to me. Town doesn't manufacture wagons, so scum has to be fuelling it.

Sky's entire ISO has nothing redeeming in it. It's red flag after red flag. 2nd to vote 2inam would also be one of the more scummy slots. It can be a message to other scum to vote. Even if I'm wrong, townreading sky right now is crazy in my opinion. AT BEST he'd be a nullread.

I agree with the previous sentiment that Psyko vs TIAM is unlikely to be SvS so pretty weird to me.

What elephant am I starting to avoid (within 2 posts of this thread )

[profii]

Hi.

I'M NOT INCLINED TO LYNCH
BuJaber
Jodaxq


NEED MORE
rb
Sky_Paladin
Hawk
Profii

I CAN CONSIDER THIS
TwoInAMillion
Derpy Hooves

LYNCH THIS
PsykoSavant

NOT EVEN IN THE GAME YET
acryon

I don't like PsykoSavant's push at all. Everyone's been talking about this so I won't be redundant.

I'm also suspicious of how much Derpy is riding my back right now. If you see him, he seems fine because he seems like he's got good game. If you look closely, you now see he's just piggybacking on some of my arguments about Psyko. If you eliminate that, his OC push is superbad. (declaring Psyko confirmed scum based on lying and then backtracking with a lame ass "wrong game"... Are you serious) It doesn't look like he's interested in sorting anyone else either.

If Psyko is town, Derpy is scum. But they're not SvS.

About TIAM:
TIAM throwing shade around the park and #21 still makes me feel inclined to call him scum. But I think my theory on TIAM + Psyko is crackpot as shit. It could still be true tho.

its interesting that I query something you posted, BuJaber jumped in to answer for you & you are not inclined to lynch him

[profii]

TIAM and Psyko is TvS or TvT, but probably not SvS.

Did you go from TIAM to Psyko within 3 minutes there?
Given they are the 2 different sides of the debate that has taken up most of the game so far, any reason you jumped from 1 side to the other there?

It's not weird if he thinks both are scum. You're starting to sound like someone intentionally avoiding the elephant in the room.

I actually totally agree with psyko about 2inam's opening post. However when assuming 2inam is scum the rest of the game so far doesn't make a lot of sense. If you take a moment and just look at the thread assuming 2inam is town, the narrative seems to make more sense. This wagon is manufactured. It does not read like a natural bandwagon to me. Town doesn't manufacture wagons, so scum has to be fuelling it.

Sky's entire ISO has nothing redeeming in it. It's red flag after red flag. 2nd to vote 2inam would also be one of the more scummy slots. It can be a message to other scum to vote. Even if I'm wrong, townreading sky right now is crazy in my opinion. AT BEST he'd be a nullread.

The answer is both are scum. I'm inclined to flashwagon TIAM now to get more accurate reads.

Actually, let's do this

VOTE: PsykoSavant

Last to the wagon is scum

Did you go from TIAM to Psyko within 3 minutes there?
Given they are the 2 different sides of the debate that has taken up most of the game so far, any reason you jumped from 1 side to the other there?

Excuse me if I've misread what you meant by 'inclined to flashwagon' but I was assuming you were happy if we all voted TIAM. You then very quickly went to Psyko after previously saying you doubt they are both scum.

BuJaber then jumped in on your behalf, which is a worrying sign in itself, saying you may think they are both scum - which you earlier said yourself, is probably not the case.

So either I've missed where that changed or something doesn't add up.

For now,

VOTE: BuJaber

[profii]

What elephant am I starting to avoid (within 2 posts of this thread )

Exactly my point. You posted after most people have already. Your first post is just hello. From the second post onwards you've been building pressure on Monkey. That isn't a bad thing by itself but not acknowledging 2inam v. Psyko at all is what I'm finding odd.

I acknowledge the interaction but it's day 1, no one has flipped anything yet so when i read phrases such as 'confirmed scum'... one wonders a little bit.
If anything I'm giving TIAM a town read and Psyko the benefit of the doubt for running through post history for now- I'd be quick to review my position on the latter subject to who goes if we lynch and overnight.

Profii, why would you vote BuJaber there exactly? Don't want to join in the existing wagons because VCA might incriminate you?

I had a theory that TIAM + Psyko is faking the interaction. ISO me or read the game we're in Page 6. In fact, I said that I called it too early that Psyko and TIAM is not SvS because TIAM unvoted where it doesn't make sense to. Did you miss that or will you double down?

Just the jumping in to answer a question aimed at you is a bit of an alarm bell and highlighting it might make people consider it as an option... obviously there is some time until the deadline.

You misunderstand profii. He said they can't both be scum. But he doesn't know which. I mean he's been going back and forth quite a bit, but he claims he wants to find which of them is scum if any. If one of them gets lynched and flips scum I assume that will mean he won't go after the other one. Just because he thinks they can't both be scum together doesn't mean he can't think both are scummy.

At least that's how I understood his post.

you are probably right, given HEM's recent read list on P6.

[profii]

I was scum hunting psycho. You were the one who got weirded out when somebody else voted him. Then you backed off and then for some reason doubled down. I don’t think you really want him lynched the more I think of it.

The fact you went to discredit me for having the same read as you, when I was the one who originally started questioning him.

Then you take my honest mistake and use it against me knowing I can’t talk about it and if i do, I get modkilled

I gave you an easy way out. All you had to do was do a little research on your own and apologize.

This body of work is scum.

I’ll claim now. 1 shot vig. Lynch me today or you get a bullet tonight.

oh wow what are you doing lmao

[profii]

if you are wrong, scum already know who not to kill tonight and you just give them a head start. i suppose you know that, i hope you know what you are doing

[profii]

youve both made your points.

[profii]

firstly, before i get started- we could really use some contribution from acryon.

anyway, i read HEM and Derpys ISOs. Probably easiest to look at HEM first- he thinks Psyko is scum because his reaction to 'truly random' was to metadive and find a reason to call him scum, essentially HEM thought that reaction was a bit over the top


then you have Derpy, he thought Psyko lied about the facts, then decided in post 93 that he wasnt right about that, however, psyko is still scummy regardless (p95) (i cant really see why though)


Fast forward to after the argument, where Hem and derpy couldnt work that out for themselves, we ended up with a vig claim (uncontested thus far)

Personally i cant glean a scum read from HEM or Mulch so i need to remove my vote from BuJ as the logic was BuJ was defending his scum mate.

What I can see is a reckless vig who is going to shoot someone come what may - if we lynch town by accident today, then Derpy shoots mulch and scum kill someone else we risk losing 3 town by the time day 2 starts, so purely for damage limitation

VOTE: Derpy Hooves

sorry pal but you are a danger to town

[profii]

What I can see is a reckless vig who is going to shoot someone come what may - if we lynch town by accident today, then Derpy shoots mulch and scum kill someone else we risk losing 3 town by the time day 2 starts, so purely for damage limitation

So earlier posts it seemed like you may scum read monkey or were suspicious of him. Now you act like he’s town and we’re doomed if I kill him and want to lynch me to protect him and the rest of town.

That’s kind of a big 180. What changed?

The questions I asked of him were easy points to probe based on facts in the thread. I was hoping HEM would actually answer but BuJ jumped in (as he just did above on your behalf )

So although he didn’t answer I did just post on this very page that I read his ISO (and yours) just to try and get a bit more of a handle on where all this mess has come from (and by mess, I mean your vig claim. I don’t see how that is a clever play at all)

You are obviously trying to get me to see that HEM/Mulch is a scum player when I’ve just said I read their ISO and came out with not a lot. You aren’t particularly producing a great deal of evidence to convince me either

You’ve also just posted ‘were probably lynching Mulch today’ now please correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t see a queue of people following you down that path so as far as I can tell you are trying to lead the group somewhere it doesn’t want to go. You need to accept that fast so you can analyse the rest of what is going on in a fair and objective way.


As far as my lynch on you is concerned. You have put yourself in a ridiculous position where if you don’t shoot someone tonight you are at significant risk of the scum killing you. Then what does that tell us in tomorrow’s analysis? scum killed a known town PR- big whoop, we learn nothing.

The further consequence of your action is you are either going to shoot Mulch because you are awesome and can confirm scum players on day 1 (well done if that happens) or if you do by some miracle, convince everyone to lynch him, will have to take a pot shot tonight which is just crazy. All because you couldn’t help but bite when HEM pressured you... the alternative conclusion is you do manage to exercise some restraint, get killed by scum and your PR goes to waste.

[profii]

not really there were 2 points I was really making
-1. I wanted to point out your awful awful play at being vig
-2. I wanted to point out you’ve made your case on HEM/Mulch and it isn’t very compelling so bring more to the table or get out of your awful tunnel vision

[profii]

Yeah it’s more of an anger lynch than somewhere my vote will be at the end of the day

I’d probably go Psyko of those 3. Although none of them really appeal to me

[profii]

Win condition is town out number scum

Assumption = Mulch is town

if we lynch someone else and you kill Mulch that will be 3 town deaths by the time day 2 starts

Therefore by lynching you we save Mulch and that’s one less town death because you didn’t team kill

That’s less towns people dead which is part of the win condition


Therefore the decision people need to think about is if Mulch is town or not. But as I said you aren’t not doing much at all to convince anyone

[profii]

Spoiler:

firstly, before i get started- we could really use some contribution from acryon.

anyway, i read HEM and Derpys ISOs. Probably easiest to look at HEM first- he thinks Psyko is scum because his reaction to 'truly random' was to metadive and find a reason to call him scum, essentially HEM thought that reaction was a bit over the top


then you have Derpy, he thought Psyko lied about the facts, then decided in post 93 that he wasnt right about that, however, psyko is still scummy regardless (p95) (i cant really see why though)


Fast forward to after the argument, where Hem and derpy couldnt work that out for themselves, we ended up with a vig claim (uncontested thus far)

Personally i cant glean a scum read from HEM or Mulch so i need to remove my vote from BuJ as the logic was BuJ was defending his scum mate.

What I can see is a reckless vig who is going to shoot someone come what may - if we lynch town by accident today, then Derpy shoots mulch and scum kill someone else we risk losing 3 town by the time day 2 starts, so purely for damage limitation

VOTE: Derpy Hooves

sorry pal but you are a danger to town

Per policy lynching the vig- I can see your logic but I think it's better to just convince him to shoot someone else. I don't want to lose a near-confirmed town, those are a rare commodity

ta - I’ve made my point and you’ve acknowledged it. I sincerely hope DH gives some strong consideration to whatever he chooses to do over the course of the night/day cycle and I hope my labouring of the point has helped that happen. If so, mission accomplished but what will be will be...

In the mean time I’m going to move my vote back to...

VOTE: BuJaber

Not a tit-for-tat vote but I’ll explain it when I’m not in a service station mid way through driving home for Xmas

[profii]

profi's assumption of Mulch as town, and Mulch's quick vote of Jodax after profi was voted makes me think they could be a scumteam.

the Jodax one is a tricky one for me. Limited posts but the one everyone is focussed on was a pretty bad one. The decision for me will come when Jodax shares a few reads etc.

I’ve got you as a town read. I’m putting all that stuff in the first few pages as a misunderstanding rather than malice fwiw

I get that my logic will draw votes in my own direction but my logic is sound that I’m potentially reducing the amount of town players that might die - that is one of my reasons for voting BuJ as he seems unwilling to at least acknowledge that is one valid train of thought - I can accept if people don’t want to go with it. The other point is if by making a fuss I have given DH some food for thought overnight tonight then again, we have potentially saved a town life.

Does me dying help DH pick a target tonight? By your logic no, because I’m just VT so it just says I know no more than anyone else.

I guess that is a way to look at it - if we lynch someone we should try and help DH pick a target tonight as he pretty much has to shoot. I guess by that logic Psyko is probably the way to go, given you 2 got into it- although I give it the benefit of the doubt for now, if he flipped scum, I think most people give you a town card, but if he flips town does it cast doubt over your role? I’m not sure

[profii]

profi's assumption of Mulch as town, and Mulch's quick vote of Jodax after profi was voted makes me think they could be a scumteam.

Id try and defend myself but no matter how many times I read that post I don’t get how you’ve come to that conclusion

[profii]

Profi is trying to policy lynch
You're trying to policy lynch profi

I mean at this point..whatever

I'd just like to extrapolate on my targeting of DH. It could be called a policy lynch for sure, however I've made my case, I can see the group isn't on board. I'm not here to rock the boat if people don't want to go that way - I've pulled out. I wouldn't say I'm a policy lynch any more if I am not gunning for a PR.

The weird part of that, BuJ himself has said I am a policy lynch in his opinion - Thanks for the town read there buddy - you got 1 bit right.

But then there is what we can conclude about people following my controversial way of dealing with DH - some people have, in a roundabout way said 'policy lynch? ok, weird, but not for me' - I can give these people instant town cards because the logic was to stop 3 town people dying, rather than 2 and that can only be a good thing. I can see why people wont go for it so as i said above, no need to rock the boat, I've got my town reads out of it.

BuJ obviously voted before I removed my vote and highlighted the above, but has left his vote there saying dont vote for a PR, town 101 etc. That's an easy place to leave a vote come day 2 analysis if in actual fact he is creating a wagon.

TIAM votes me for some logic which I just can't understand, maybe I'm just thick and I'm happy to admit that anyway. Spot 2 on the lynch, another easy place to be come analysis time, although I wonder if he has really considered tomorrow - he has highlighted a potential link between me and Mulch. With DH highly likely to shot Mulch come day 2, everyone is going to know there is no such link if we both were to die. (I'm town so no links, although I'm town reading Mulch, he could flip scum still)


Then we also have to think about DH - has he rolled the dice, that there is no vig in this game and got lucky? Are some people such as BuJ denying the value of a policy lynch on DH because they are actually a scum team. Now I know I am very guilty of coming up with elaborate scenarios, when I should pay heed to that occams razor thing... I know that is a stretch, but ultimately someone in this game is lying so perhaps it doesn't apply - BuJ has jumped in twice now to answer my queries directed at other players, so I just wonder if he is trying to control something.

[profii]

Merry Christmas Happy holidays everybody I'll post more tomorrow. This is just a check in to let y'all know.

Good if you to do so. The group had a growing concern that you had gone noticeably quiet during this deluge of posts over the last 24 hours or so. I’m glad you found the time to update us with your whereabouts


Hope you had/have/are having a great Xmas though (and everyone else )

[profii]

I agree with at least 90% of the summary Jodaxq has provided there although I will point out I mocked Hawks check in because it reminded me of the way Jodaxq said I’m not scummy - could be way off as Xmas obviously does throw everyone out of routine

[profii]

Oh, page 14 didn't appear when i made that post above

so that policy lynch guys?

[profii]

I have high standards for town. I don’t lower them for anything.

I am trying not to be rude but you make it increasingly difficult each time you post.

I know no one else has posted yet, but I'd honestly be surprised if we get a counter claim.

Which means, you've jumped in with a vig shot and found the cop on day 1. I know you said there is no set way or no bad way to play the vig but actually you could not be more wrong. This game is the definition of doing the vig wrong.

[profii]

oh

VOTE: Derpy Hooves

I'll remove it if there is a counter claim.

[profii]

I guess I’m gambling that we have a doc type role to protect the cop overnight - ever the optimist I am.

There are a few ways this plays out:

1.
We lynch derpy
We have a doc that saves Mulch
The mafia either get no kill because they went for Mulch or they also gamble we have a doc and we lose another player
But we get a cop read tomorrow

2.
We don’t lynch DH, it will be luck if we hit scum here
DH kills Mulch
Mafia kills an additional player - that could be 3 towns we’ve lost including a PR and a wasted vig shot

3.
We don’t lynch DH
Mafia and DH aim at Mulch, we only lose 2 people but 2 wasted PRs

4.
We get another cop claim before the end of the day throwing everything into disarray



The only other thing I don’t know is if we have a doc he could presumably protect the cop from DH but I don’t want to draw another Pr out today. I think we’ve had enough!

[profii]

I think you're both town.

What has he done that looks town?

Up until the cop claim I couldn't be comfortable placing him on either side. The cop claim this early is too risky for scum imo.

Though in all fairness if he did indeed believe you then it's probably the only move he has to protect himself from your shot.

So we have to theorize about setup here. You reckon we'd have a town-vig without a town cop? Everything is possible but I'd be very skeptical of this in a normal game. Which means if he's lying somebody CAN counterclaim, and even if they decide they don't want to counterclaim in day 1, they can counterclaim at any time later. So for that, it's pretty much suicide for scum.

BTW if there is someone who can counterclaim you HAVE to do it now please. We would be able to 1) lynch mulch, 2) save DH's bullet, 3) profii wouldn't have to worry about DH shooting cop.

if we are not lynching DH to save Mulch do we really want further PR claims or do we let todays mess unravel itself at night and collect the real cop reads in a few days time (or whenever they come out etc)

[profii]

We lynch derpy
We have a doc that saves Mulch
The mafia either get no kill because they went for Mulch or they also gamble we have a doc and we lose another player
But we get a cop read tomorrow

Btw this scenario is wrong cause if mulch is alive he won’t have a result tomorrow.

Just looked through profi’s iso and I see nothing to suggest he’s town. He also failed to deliver on his reasons for BuJaber which he said he’d post.

What’s up with people not explaining themselves? That’s a key part of the game and something every townie should do.

The scenario is mulch claim is true and he survives if another player is the doc and protects him. Just for clarity because I’m new do you play the cop having a self protection aspect? (Which would be where you are coming from)

Anyway, I can go get my BuJ reasons in a bit but I’m on my phone now. The jist of it is he is using odd logic (imo) eg not acknowledging that there is a benefit to killing you, especially given you seem determined to kill the now claimed cop. The idea of leaving you both alone means, if BuJ is scum, they know the vig and cop are out tonight so they can manipulate the lynch to get someone else which really helps them

[profii]

To that end seeing as Mulch has claimed can we ask him if he needs protection or how does that work from here...

[profii]

Ah ok missed the even bit. Yeah I see it from your perspective quite clearly that he is keeping himself in the game the way he is going. Food for thought for now for me

[profii]

See my last post - now you’ve pointed out the even bit it’s a convienient claim so I’ll jump off you

UNVOTE: Derpy

[profii]

Looking back at ISOs for HEM and Mulch my conclusions are:
HEM seemed to be throwing accusations around to see what stuck. If you want him to be scum, you could say he was seeing if any wagons started or something like that. However, you could say he was testing players for their reactions to see if anything revealed their alignments. I think the latter now I’ve read through again.

That’s, ignoring the claim, which ultimately we can’t do. It does seem convenient that he is even night. The tricky bit is Mulch isn’t L-1 or even close afaik, so why even reveal now. If he is truthful, sure it’s a role we want but it didn’t need to come out yet, so that’s weird. If he is town-lying just to try and not die, I think he is wasting our time and if he is scum-lying then god loves a trier

I feel like if this was poker I have to bet to see what hand you guys are holding even though I know I’m going to lose

[profii]

I don't buy Mulch's claim. No reason to claim this early in the game and claiming because of an argument with one player is really poor play. Also claiming cop could force a counterclaim and even night means he doesn't have to give results right away. Too convienient of a claim for me so I call BS.

I don't buy Mulch's claim. No reason to claim this early in the game and claiming because of an argument with one player is really poor play. Also claiming cop could force a counterclaim and even night means he doesn't have to give results right away. Too convienient of a claim for me so I call BS.

Trying to lynch the cop I see

VOTE: 2inamillion

Scum found

on the one hand, I agree with what TIAM is saying there, the claim is very suspect given the circumstance

On the other hand, I would agree with the Mulch post but TIAM has not actually moved his vote so that doesn’t wash with me.

As much as the suspect claim has only gone as far to give me empathy with what DH has been saying, if we are not lynching DH for being a PR I am not going to lynch Mulch today either - I have seen some obscure claims come good so I’ve been here before.

[profii]

Also for the record I can quote physically the posts where I explained all of my scum reads .

I already said that I don’t recall seeing them. So why haven’t you done
This already to show me? I’ve read your iso like 5 times looking for your reasons for joda and never saw them.

The standards of town players I expect is being able to read the posts

[profii]

I’ve had an idea. If we are going to lose a PR when DH kills Mulch, I’ll make a different policy vote

VOTE: no lynch

Ner!

[profii]

Profi doesn’t want to find scum. He’s basically scum claimed.

Yes, exactly, by not wanting to lynch the PR claims, I am scum claiming

Logical fallacies, certainly not scummy at all there buddy

[profii]

What if I think one of you and Mulch are likely scum but I’m fairly confident we won’t get a majority vote on either

[profii]

VOTE: twoinamillion

Go review the last few pages and come back and tell me what’s changed since that quote and I’ll move my vote

[profii]

Derpy - if we lynch Mulch today, who do you shoot?
Presumably if you don’t shoot and don’t get killed, do you think you’d get lynched tomorrow? I’d be really tempted as it currently stands

[profii]

I think he is saying one of him and mulch are scum + 2 = 3 total


Someone help me out because I’m new on this site. Will the vig and mafia kills be announced as “player X was shot” ie we won’t actually know which kill was the scum or vig

I can see a scenario where DH is scum and they already plan to kill Mulch... DH doesn’t die and palms it off as maybe a Dr or scum wanted mulch dead too (whatever)
We then go mad at DH for killing a PR so his scum mates bus him for town points

Feasible or no?

[profii]

@BuJaber - by way of something quantative like a percentage or marks out of 10 (or whatever you choose) how likely do you believe it is that both Mulch and Derpy flip as per their claims

[profii]

right, so the point is, there is a chance that someone is up to shenanigans here. Therefore, there is a chance, albeit by your own admission a minority chance, that lynching could be a positive thing to do.

I am not making this point to say to you I think you should change your lynch to DH or Mulch, but when you say things like 'we are not lynching Mulch today' (instead of something like, in my opinion it's not the way to go or whatever) you come across as 'playing by the manual' in terms of 'we can't lynch a PR claim!'

now, that's a great way to portray yourself as town. It's also a great way for the scum to know if they put you in a particular scenario, you will react in a certain way because that's "the town thing to do" which to me, means either:

-you are trying way to hard to be town because you are scum.
-by rigidly sticking to the playbook you are highly susceptible to scum manipulation which will lead you to lynching who they want you to lynch.


food for thought, do as you wish with it, but that is my perspective on how you are playing - basically I'm still scum reading you a bit

[profii]

-Hawk, I guess the one thing we can say about Derpy is if he is fronting an aggressive tactic and doesn’t intend to shoot the cop after all, he is doing exactly what you are telling me to do and standing by his convictions. I’m probably picking Derpy as more towny than Mulch but I guess I hadn’t really figured that with the even night claim bit it’s going to be so easy for Mulch to say oh yeah I read that guy who already died as he has loads of time to think about which player to fake read

-Sky, I went back to review the part of your post that you highlighted in red - given than Psyko eventually did lay a lynch on TIAM I think it’s fair to say he did have a scum read so I’m not sure I entirely agree with what you are saying here. Therefore moving on to the BuJ bit, I can see why BuJ said what he did in post 73 but given that’s its day 1 I think BuJ is a bit naive to think someone caught scum on page 1

[profii]

B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?

Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.

This is exactly what I mean when I said Bujaber is following the manual, people are having their cake and eating it by saying “I won’t be blamed for lynching a cop but I’ll air my doubts now so I can say I told you so later...”

Yea I know nobody wants to lynch the cop but it will take 6 of us to do it, If it’s a mistake, that would be a shame but it doesn’t suddenly mean we are all scum or some other travesty

The other really weird thing I don’t get is that no one will put their name to a lynch of a potential fake PR claim because they don’t want to lynch a Pr but when DH says that he will kill a PR claim tonight very few people care enough to try and stop him. Again I assume people want their cake and to eat it because they will let DH be brave and take the risk of shooting a PR so they have an easy person to blame in the aftermath

No risk no reward people!

[profii]

we are on day 1 - go and pick 10 random games and tell me how many times the town lynched a scum on day 1 with essentially no real data other than people claiming they’re psychic - I bet it’s less than half

With Mulch, it’s 50/50 he’s either lying or he’s not. Given the convenience of the even night bit, I think the risk is no longer 50/50 and it’s something we should consider - probably better odds than picking any other essentially random player

[profii]

Ebwop - that was mainly aimed at TIAM

[profii]

Statistics don't work that way profil. This is a social deduction game and I'm sure it is less than half in fact it's probably pretty close to x/y percentage where x is the average # of scum players in any given game and y is the average total number of players in any given game.

Pedit: No odds don't work that way...

Also that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Let's ignore the proclaimed action of a person who can directly eliminate a player and choose our lynch without considering this information. Changing DHs mind is reasonable if you believe both DH and Mulches claims.

The point is, if you don’t believe mulch’s claim and you don’t want to change DHs mind, do DH a favour and kill mulch so DH can make better use of his PR!

[profii]

Derpy I'm getting pretty strong townvibes from but I wish you wouldn't tunnel so hard and focus on other players even if they've said less,

Im not focusing on mulch only. I’m currently voting profli. I see nothing townie from him. I’d also support a psycho lynch. That’s 3 people that I’m willing to lynch.

It just feels like you've only talked about Mulch most of the game. I know you haven't entirely funneled. A little more on your Psycho read and your read on Profil would be nice.

I don’t know how much more I can add to either than what I’ve already added.

Profli doesn’t want to find and lynch scum. He’s rather vote a town Pr or no lynch.

Psycho I was suspicious of from way back. He’s drifted into the background since mulch and I have fought.

Where is my vote right now? Keep up

[profii]

Where is my vote right now? Keep up

Yeah you are voting somebody now AFTER I called you out for it. Saving face imo.

Yeah when you pointed out the even bit of the read I came round to your way of thinking but you refuse to see it.
Although I am getting town vibes from you and I’d rather we took the gamble on Mulch so you can perhaps make better use of your shot, that might be a dangerous plan

[profii]

Acryon - I am sort of on board with your argument that lynching Mulch means we can ‘save’ DHs shot for something else. But given his claim do you think the mafia will kill him tonight which actually just flips your scenario on its head - ie -

Educated lynch on mulch
Uneducated pot shot by DH before he gets scum killed

That probably makes me sound scummy because he is targeting me but if you think there is a scenario where DH sees the night through to gain a bit more knowledge then I’d go with a mulch lynch

[profii]

So

Why don’t you believe my claim

Baby fucking steps

Do you regret your rage claim given the even night bit looks dodge as ____

[profii]

NL was more of a rage option at DH going to shoot a cop claim but now people are actually talking about it I’m less ragey

[profii]

hawk - you asked why i am voting TIAM.
I placed the vote after he went back to his own post about me and mulch being a scum team, he quoted it just after i placed a no lynch vote
the main reason for the vote on TIAM here is that some players are saying, i can see why a policy lynch might happen here, but not for me, some players are just downright ignoring it, TIAM falls into this pile. One reason for ignoring the policy lynch factor could be the claims are legit and it means PRs die. Good for scum so that's a scum read to me.

Obviously after the fact, TIAM pretty much ignored my vote on him, despite arguing the toss quite vigorously about all the TIAM vs Psyko stuff. Perhaps he thinks due to my approach to the game, I'm a less credible player, therefore he doesn't need to justify his town role to me, but I'm noting this down as a scum read because trying to convince someone you are town is a potential way to dig a hole, so maybe he is trying to avoid going down that path.

you also specifically asked about TIAM/Psyko - I guess Psyko was gunning for TIAM and although they both placed votes for each other, I guess I'd perceive TIAM as retaliation more than anything even though he did vote back. It's impossible to say if the meta diving stuff was scum hunting or town-mis-leading. I think to try and mislead the town on the first page would be pretty ballsy so I'll say probably not that, which gives me a town read on Psyko. Then to consider TIAM, initially I thought given that vigorous defence of himself, that he might have a role to play in the game, as people tend to get more involved when they are something above VT, but over time I have figured with these long days, it might just be the way you guys play the game here, I'm used to quick deadlines where I've played previously.


going through the ISO of TIAM, he doesn't believe mulch's claim, but won't lynch him. His reason is he might not be right and we can take risks later. If a reason for not voting is you might not be right, I think TIAM should abdicate his right to vote... He also says if someone thinks they are always right, they are more scummy, so, in theory he could vote DH.

his vote is currently on me, from a significantly long time ago in the game, based on the weird link between me and mulch when mulch voted Jodax after I voted BuJ - I do not understand how he even came to that conclusion but it's curious that his vote remains there after, in my opinion, I've made enough efforts to explain my logic. This leads me to believe he is happy for me to be lynch and he also thinks it's possible that I'll get a majority maybe for the reasons i mentioned earlier such as I'm less credible as I'm suggesting policy lynches which seems to attract heat.

[profii]

I’m going to do a read list, more for my own benefit just to see all my thoughts in one place and sense check my own thinking adds up.
I have to admit where I’ve played mafia before, we used to have maybe a 48 hour day 1 deadline, you wouldn’t see any vote until the last hour and we didn’t need a full majority to lynch, it was just whoever had more votes when the clock ran out - the reason I mention it, is where I played everyone would basically RVS on day 1 so trying to scumhunt without any voting records or flips & night action results etc is not a skill I’ve ever tried to develop, to the point where I’ve always figured a read list just told the scum who is targeting townies and allows them to frame said person with their night kill but I’ll do a quick one and if anyone wants more detail, just ask...

Derpy Hooves - I probably believe the claim on the face of it.
Sky_Paladin - some really good analysis which I don’t think a scum would bother with
TwoInAMillion - sort of linked to Pskyo in my mind, some questionable logic has been used so alarm bells
acryon - although highly inactive I find myself agreeing with a lot of acetone posts so town here
Hawk - similar to sky, some positive analysis
BuJaber - some highly questionable logic, scum reading here
profii
Mulch - I think the claim is convenient, I’m giving him benefit of the doubt because I’ve been bitten by lynching in this scenario
PsykoSavant - as I mentioned linked with TIAM a bit, starting to coast a wee bit so not sure either way
Jodaxq - quite inactive and a mix of posts I agree and disagree with but ultimately I’m reading town
rb - I am getting a gut feeling of scum but it could just be apathy for the drama rather than trying to be the scum coaster


Looking at it like that, I suppose BuJ is my strongest scum read, I’m also happy that I’m not reading too many players as scum at this point, obviously there won’t be loads of them!

Anyway, the logical thing to do seems to be :

VOTE: BuJaber

[profii]

Profii’s “Cant eat a cake” post. This player alternates between madness and stone cold logic. Profii, if you are town, my main advice would be believe in yourself more, and don’t second guess yourself. Your logic is sound and strong. I think you should exploit this to it’s full potential. I doubt you when you doubt yourself. Who are your scum reads and why? Don’t worry if other people disagree. I want to see your unbridled thought process.

lol, thanks I think.
I agree with you, because I'm new here I think I'm trying to fit in. I'm used to my usual group knowing my meta and accepting that my logic is usually fairly sound, despite it being a bit unusual at times. I know this, you can see this. I don't know why I am bottling but lets move on.

Unbridled thought process then, I've been working my way through each players ISO and I thought of something interesting that I will put across in the form of a question for every player except for Derpy (well he can answer but I don't care what his answer is)

that question is: Please tell us why you think Derpy is so set on killing the HEM/Mulch slot?

feel free to look back through posts etc but I think it will be interesting when we see how people answer that... I will give my answer, I don't want to pre-empt anyone just yet though!

[profii]

Profii’s “Cant eat a cake” post. This player alternates between madness and stone cold logic. Profii, if you are town, my main advice would be believe in yourself more, and don’t second guess yourself. Your logic is sound and strong. I think you should exploit this to it’s full potential. I doubt you when you doubt yourself. Who are your scum reads and why? Don’t worry if other people disagree. I want to see your unbridled thought process.

lol, thanks I think.
I agree with you, because I'm new here I think I'm trying to fit in. I'm used to my usual group knowing my meta and accepting that my logic is usually fairly sound, despite it being a bit unusual at times. I know this, you can see this. I don't know why I am bottling but lets move on.

Unbridled thought process then, I've been working my way through each players ISO and I thought of something interesting that I will put across in the form of a question for every player except for Derpy (well he can answer but I don't care what his answer is)

that question is: Please tell us why you think Derpy is so set on killing the HEM/Mulch slot?

feel free to look back through posts etc but I think it will be interesting when we see how people answer that... I will give my answer, I don't want to pre-empt anyone just yet though!

[profii]

PEDIT- to answer your question prof - DH has an aggressive and confident play style. Players like that don't and shouldn't back down.

He think Mulch is lying

so he wants to shoot him. But there is no way that he isn't at least a little biased. Which is why he is choosing to shoot and not lynch. Much more personal.

That is of course assuming he is town. If DH is lying then his motivation is easy. He manipulated and frustrated a player to the point that most of the players are now angry and/or scumreading that player and he knows lynching mulch would be easy so he wants us to mislynch someone else first and then scum can manipulate us into lynching Mulch day 2.

The only other scenario is that they're both scum, though that by now would be very very very shocking, but I guess it would explain why DH didn't vote for mulch.

Do you think Mulch is lying?

[profii]

I’ll stick my 2 pennies worth in now... Sky, you alluded to what I was going to say, the trivial reason is the bit I spotted and I thought to myself, pages and pages of BS only because Derpy got upset that HEM called him a liar.

When I’ve been a vig I just chill out, try and balance coasting and contributing so scum aren’t NKing me and town aren’t lynching me. Then maybe at night 2 when I’ve seen 2 lynches and a NK flip I might have enough info to pull the trigger.

I know I called Derpy on this and he said there is no right way to play the vig but going bat ____ crazy and threatening to kill someone is something I haven’t seen before or anything close so it just makes me start to think something is going on, but in the knowledge that I’ve reminded myself the reason Derpy has a boner for Mulch is practically nothing - do I believe the claim? I don’t think so. Do I think Derpy has a long term plan? Yes I do. Can I give it a town or scum read? Not yet.

It all seems a bit bananas

[profii]

PEDIT- to answer your question prof - DH has an aggressive and confident play style. Players like that don't and shouldn't back down.

He think Mulch is lying

so he wants to shoot him. But there is no way that he isn't at least a little biased. Which is why he is choosing to shoot and not lynch. Much more personal.

That is of course assuming he is town. If DH is lying then his motivation is easy. He manipulated and frustrated a player to the point that most of the players are now angry and/or scumreading that player and he knows lynching mulch would be easy so he wants us to mislynch someone else first and then scum can manipulate us into lynching Mulch day 2.

The only other scenario is that they're both scum, though that by now would be very very very shocking, but I guess it would explain why DH didn't vote for mulch.

Do you think Mulch is lying?

No I don't.

Given that the original question was why do you think Derpy wants to shoot Mulch and you said Mulch was lying. Why have you disregarded the HEM bit out of interest

[profii]

DH had already decided he was shooting the HEM/Mulch ‘slot’ before Mulch had even entered the game. If you look back at the reasons for that, they are ropey at best in my opinion - I was wondering who else had noticed that as it’s an interesting way to play the vig

[profii]

I’m starting to think we will see you on day 2 haha

[profii]

Do you guys usually play with roles that have even night caveats - I’m wondering if this game is going to be weird and wonderful as we go which is my thought process on Derpy. I don’t know if he is a SK but I don’t think he is a normal vig either, although I assume he has a NK facility

[profii]

I already explained my vote. I see Mulch and prolif as a scumteam.

I’ve said a couple of times I am none the wiser as to why you’ve linked us. Would you mind elaborating a bit on that please

[profii]

Acryon- I think at this point we are rolling the dice over the claims a bit
DH has softened his stance over shooting Mulch which is good and definitely a factor to consider

I think Derpy is a PR but I think maybe there is more to him than a 1 shot vig.
I’m really not sure about Mulch, I’m sort of in benefit of the doubt mode and I think leaving them both alive achieves 2 things - let’s see who was making idle threats - let’s force some of the coasters to get involved so we can pick a alternative lynch target perhaps

I’m inclined to stay away from the 2 of them as it stands, an alternative lynch (or I suppose no lynch) would potentially leave 1 PR in the game as mafia can’t kill both is something to think about if you believe them both

[profii]

I know someone went over this earlier but I just want to remind myself by writing it down.

Worst case scenario...
11 players
We mislynch and scum get a NK
That probably makes it...
3v6
Let’s say the flips aren’t that useful and we mis lynch again could become 3v4

That then becomes LyLo, right? So if Mulch’s reads are players that got killed or just town then he really isn’t much use.
This also assume DH does as he says and no shot after town lynch, which could change tomorrow.


So even if you believe the Mulch claim, his PR isn’t that great and perhaps wouldn’t be a huge loss. It also enables our vig to think freely if you believe that claim.


But that is very much everything going wrong... easy to suggest with no flips at all so far

[profii]

If we don’t lynch Derpy or Mulch, mafia have to make a choice. If we have some kind of protection role, they have to decide if which PR is telling the truth and if they think both which is most at risk/most useful.

If Mulch is telling the truth and has some reads by the time we get to LyLo, then town will probably have trouble trusting said reads.


I’m in a weird place where I think Mulch is not lying but has no value to town regardless

[profii]

If we don’t lynch Derpy or Mulch, mafia have to make a choice. If we have some kind of protection role, they have to decide if which PR is telling the truth and if they think both which is most at risk/most useful.

Although this is only true if they are both telling the truth. If either is lying, there is no choice to make, and if we have a protection role, they are forced to guess which one is telling the truth and hope they protect the right one.

If Mulch is telling the truth and has some reads by the time we get to LyLo, then town will probably have trouble trusting said reads.

Exactly. If we have a PR that we can't trust anyway, then what's the point of them for the future of the town?

It’s difficult because ultimately he could form part of the town majority, which PR or not, is a good thing

TIAM

- can you explain what made you think Mulchs vote on Jodaxq after my vote on BuJ (I think it was) made you conclude possible scum link?

@Psyko, I’m aware of that post and agree it’s his reason, but I also agree with you that it makes no logical sense so I keep asking for a bit more from TIAM

[profii]

It’s still uncontested so there is one reason. I’m not sure anyone we are playing with suffers from ADHD so I’m not buying distraction, especially since at the time half the team thought that 1 post from Jodaxq was was scum central.

Overall pretty weak to be hanging on to that 15 pages later!

[profii]

I don’t really care about your vote I am just pleased to learn your logic is weak and i thought it would be useful to reiterate it. Vote as you will

[profii]

I don’t really care about your vote I am just pleased to learn your logic is weak and i thought it would be useful to reiterate it. Vote as you will

It's not weak at all. Your counterargument is that people are paying attention therefore it isn't a good argument and someone else would have pointed it out. So whose argument is weak?

its such a tenuous argument I don’t really feel I need to argue it. Partly because I still don’t really understand it and partly because I obviously know there is no link so I can’t be bothered to spend time thinking about it

[profii]

I get it but it’s just speculation and I know it’s wrong so I really dont see the point in me getting involved

[profii]

You’re doing my defence for me dude, soon we are going to be a scum team... I totally agree though

[profii]

You’re doing my defence for me dude, soon we are going to be a scum team... I totally agree though

lol defending you is just a byproduct of me trying to point out to people that TIAM has been skating by on shitty logic and needs to be lynched.

I just had a quick flick through TIAMs ISO and I agree a lot of his assertions seem to be based on illogical premises. The 2 things I would note are he clearly thinks Mulch is scum & fake claiming but won’t lynch. I think the motivation here is “ I won’t lynch a PR claim because lynching potential PR is a scum move”

It reeks of desperation to be in a position where he can come out and say “well I can evidence that I’m town, can you” rather than scum hunting which some people believe must be priority 1 at all times...

Now I know I’ve been through a few scenarios involving the lynching of the claims and even no lynching so some people are probably thinking its hypocritical of me to say something like that, but to those people I would say look carefully and you will see my motivation was always trying to find ways to keep the most town players alive - I think this can be nearly as valuable as finding scum, which I believe is very hard on day 1. I would assume from that my town card would be earned naturally but I would say I believe that is not the case looking at TIAM closely


Does that make him scum? Not really, but he’s not top of the towniee list either

[profii]

I think I’ll never believe what Mulch will say, also Derpy seems to have become less militant with his Vig shot so hopefully by removing an untrustable PR claim, we can make use of the other PR claim

VOTE: Mulch

[profii]

I'm starting to doubt the cop claim. He's basically a 1-shot investigator with 11 players. His second investigation wouldn't happen until N4 which there would only be 3 players left with no vig shot.

Mulch - partly this, partly your claim is convienient given the circumstance, partly if you are alive day 2 all we are going to talk about is lynching you again and there are probably 2 other scum just coasting through

[profii]

In any other game I’d be lynching hawk for suggesting we lynch a PR and a vig should shoot on Night 1 haha but it does actually make sense, oh god

[profii]

um thats pretty bad lol

it would make sense only if he was scum, but if you think hes town the solution here is to work together not to advocate a policy lynch

yeah a few people have said this, great idea - who and why please?

[profii]

You don’t deserve an answer

Sheep me after I flip

Don’t question it

They are scum

Are you not thinking the reason Derpy had on you was pretty weak and he might be up to something that isn’t straight vig? If he doesn’t die overnight or doesn’t shoot we have to consider his claim as well ffs!

[profii]

I’m going to go back through the thread and see if anyone had said no policy lynch etc is now advocating a Mulch lynch just to see if everything adds up

But for now, sleep, so just to buy myself some time UNVOTE: mulch

[profii]

ok, so, people voting Mulch are:

Me (technically, subject to my findings I'll put my vote back...)
Mulch
Sky
TIAM
acryon (is on the last vote count on page 27.)

notes:
Jodaxq - not opposed to a mulch lynch as per page 28


right so lets look at how each player came to those votes:

Me - At first, I figured Derpy has a highly weak reason to go for Mulch's slot so militantly, although he has eased off that stance slightly towards the latter parts of this thread which is good to hear. However, I know people think you shouldn't lynch a PR claim, but no one has really pressured it in depth. Perhaps it is too early to do so, but I think it's something we need to think about tomorrow. Anyway, this post isn't supposed to be about Derpy, I'm looking at Mulch. He came straight into the game to be told he is going to die tonight regardless, despite Derpy easing off a bit as I've mentioned he has still not engaged much in the game. Given his interesting claim of even night cop, I think we will spend a lot of time overthinking his role. If we do keep him here and he reads someone who is alive by Day 3, is anyone going to trust it? I'm not. So happy for him to go and maybe we can get some positive action out of Derpy as an additional benefit.


Sky - Looking at his big analysis post here I find it interesting that he considered my policy lynch of Derpy one of the less significant interactions as he spoilered it to skip past it.
Then in the next analysis post he points out my lynch on Derpy is logical. So twice he has acknowledged that policy lynches have a purpose, which means no alarm bells when Sky gets involved in a policy lynch. What I am saying is I doubt this is a scum bus.
So, given the final post from sky is that he is voting for Mulch because we didn't follow his BuJaber logic and he also believes there is some sound logic in policy lynchs which i found in my analysis above. I am going to give this a town read.

TIAM - He has early on given Mulch a scum card by linking him with me. So we can say at this point TIAM thinks he is voting scum legit.
He also contests the PR claim.
He doesn't like BuJabers rolefishing which is a good thing, but he doesn't want to put his money where his mouth is and lynch the fakeclaiming Mulch
Tries to justify with Acryon that he doesnt have to vote Mulch despite thinking he is scum and fake claiming.
#474 thinks the risk of lynching a potential cop is worth saving for later
#482 suggests DH might change his mind on his Vig shot. I did check Derpy's ISO and he mentions fairly on that he would not shoot if we lynch town (post #228) so this changes things for me because I missed this earlier. I didnt see Derpy relent until much later.
Then TIAM eventually decided to vote Mulch
Conclusion, it's fairly sound that TIAM has voted for a fakeclaim and someone he is scum reading, but thus far, he is the only player scum reading and not policy lynching which is something I am going to keep in my mind.

Acryon - his first post, is 10 pages in - then jumps straight in with a Mulch vote.
Says early claims are bad, agreed. Says it's unlikely 2 PRs will go head to head so soon, agreed.
He also points out the policy aspect of it - we lynch mulch, meaning DH wont shoot at random, which potentially saves a town life.
He disputes TIAMs point that there comes a point where we should kill Derpy if he is a SK killing loads of townies.
Specifically says he does not believe the cop claim from Mulch
He says his secondary lynch target would be TIAM for 2 points TIAM made which in my opinion, TIAM made using sound logic. see here and click the links Acryon provided
He also suggests maybe BuJaber as an alternative and doesnt elaborate.
Seems confident DH wont shoot if we lynch town, then follows up with another post to justify it
Doesnt want a no lynch scenario.
queries Derpys wont shoot if we lynch town policy.


Mulch - I'd like Mulch to consider that Derpy has actually eased off his 'you are 100% dead stance' (a bit) it would be useful for you to read the game in a positive way because there is a chance you could convince people you should stay imo. I missed post 228 where he said he wouldnt shoot if we lynch town, so maybe you did too. I'm not saying we should lynch a town to keep you in the game


I know I keep going on but I'll also summise what I think of Derpy at this point, I think it is fair to say he is relevant when it comes to Mulch discussion:
-He is fairly determined to remove Mulch from the game, but his lynch is not on him.
-He has made a few nods to say he will not shoot if we lynch a town today.
-Mulch is likely to survive the night, because his claim gives him no info tomorrow, therefore scum are likely to target Derpy, therefore he has to be super confident in his scum!Muclh read otherwise he will not get his shot before he dies. In my opinion, his reasoning for his scum read is super weak, it is also day 1 so no one is really confident of anything. I'm not sure if Derpy is trying to confuse the scum or if he is scum.




So in conclusion, Sky and TIAM are definitely getting passes from me because their analysis thus far seem logically sound. Even TIAM voting for me is ok because no one knows anything yet, people are going to get stuff wrong, but him moving to Mulch is him standing by his scumread convictions which is a good thing I think.

Acryon is really confusing me, everything he says is logically sound... but! Thus far, he has only really directed us towards Mulch. If you read his ISO, you could suggest he has come into the game a bit later on (and I know it's xmas etc) which has given him a position to look at the game and see which direction it has already taken. He has taken some steps to appeal to those who think policy lynching Mulch is a positive move and he has also taken steps to appeal to those who just think Mulch is scum. He also softly suggested TIAM and BuJaber are perhaps other lynch targets but his reasoning for TIAM was pants (see above - TIAM is right in saying Scum will statistically mislynch, that's their job! Also, if Derpy kept shooting 'wrong' players, we probably should lynch him. Although that would be subject to his justification and how the game panned out.
Posts #536 and #537 also rang alarm bells with me, #536 is a Hawk quote saying Acryon has assumed DH wont shoot and he just says "I don't think he will." then #537 is a follow up justifying the scenario where it's basically the same as if we lynch someone else who flips town, the Derpy shoots anyway. Whilst that is true, I was reading with a biased narrative where there is a DH/Acryon link and Acryon knew DH wouldnt shoot, but then found a logical reason to justify it after stating it. Perhaps a scumslip.



In conclusion, I'd like people to consider what I've said about Acryon and discuss. I'm not confident enough to put my vote back on Mulch as I feel like we've been lead there - I also believe something weird is going on with Derpy's claim, more than I believe something is wrong with Mulch's claim. Reason - Derpy said in post 228 he wouldn't shoot if we lynch town. I know we are going with 'rage claims' but if you are a PR you dont put yourself in a position where you are likely to die before you make any use out of your power. Derpy will obviously say my argument is irrelevant because Mulch is scum, but his reasons are that he has forced himself into a position where he can just say 'Policy: lynch all liars' so something is really fishy here.

If we are lynching a PR today, I'd prefer Derpy over Mulch.
If we are not, I'd like to discuss the points I've raised over Acryon.

[profii]

Oh no

You don't want me to wagon with you?

But your fervor was cringy because I still don't know if you're town. If Psyko is scum, you're town or super-bussing scum.

Since there's daytalk,

I think bussing is going to be much much of an option here. So this could be a set up to clear both of you off associative reads later since first page wagons are most likely to be thrown off.

Especially since you claim that you only played scum once. I don't recall that as true.

Question for mods - I was perusing the wiki and it said day talk has to be announced. I dont see it being announced but HEM mentions it. Either something needs clarifying or that's a massive scum slip haha

[profii]

EBWOP - I was searching the thread for "daytalk" and your rules said there actually is "Day Talk" so ignore me, there is day talk aha

[profii]

we should have just waited for someone to react suspiciously lol

[profii]

but yeah its right at the end

[profii]

Welp.. according to the votecount on page 27.. deadline has already been reached.

Have I missed a voter? I counted 5 out of 6 and I didn’t think day 1 deadline was until after NY

[profii]

I couldn’t find a 6th voter so mulch just put himself at L-1 I believe but I’ve undone that

[profii]

VOTE: Mulch

Cya guys

I never put myself to L-1 at scum

I wasn't even sure if I hammered myself

I'm confirmed town now and votes on me are a scumclaim

VOTE: Acorn

Uhhh you did.... lol
Flailing he's not going to be helpful for town anymore :/

VOTE: Mulch

Mulch - don’t be daft

Hawk - thoughts on acryon please obviously when NYE is out the way if necessary have a good one

[profii]

VOTE: mulch

L-1

If scum. Yippee

If town. Blacklisted.

I thought he was confirmed scum?

[profii]

Another reason I feel like Mulch is lying is that I feel a Vig and a Cop would be a lot of power in one town, and I doubt that DH is lying. On the other hand, I feel like it's entirely possible that Mulch is gambiting and he's actually VT, but if that's the case that's completely on him and he deserves to be lynched.

think about how powerful an even night cop really is

also, im not asking DH to confirm, but I've played games where the vig has a shot every night, a shot and thats it, or a shot that gets reloaded only if he hits scum, so the balance of power is relatively unknown


unless you know something i dont

[profii]

Fair enough, but it's reasonable to assume that there are other power roles as well that haven't been claimed.

hang on, a minute ago, vig + cop was a lot of power, now you think there could be more?!

[profii]

Fair enough, but it's reasonable to assume that there are other power roles as well that haven't been claimed.

hang on, a minute ago, vig + cop was a lot of power, now you think there could be more?!

This is basically a scumslip

Breaking my ignoring Mulch for a second.

I’ve always wondered something. What happen to you attacking people who voted tiam because he was mislynch bait to you calling him scum and voting him yourself.

Also earlier you said you are very familiar with rb and this is his town game but you’ve only played with rb twice and once time you were scum. How can 2 games enough to be “very familiar” with someone?

it's not really a scum slip. Just trying to get TIAM to think through what he is suggesting clearly when posting tbh. I know I do a lot of what if'ing but i see this game a bit like chess, you have to consider the game can unfold in a number of ways and you need to asses the risks correctly.

This all started with us observing an even night cop isnt actually as powerful as it sounds given the number of players in the game etc. Also, a vig doesn't have any better scum knowledge than anyone else in the game, so isn't that amazing either.

and that's about all we know :p

[profii]

um thats pretty bad lol

it would make sense only if he was scum, but if you think hes town the solution here is to work together not to advocate a policy lynch

yeah a few people have said this, great idea - who and why please?

I don't get why it's a scumslip either

Also don't get why we are still policy lynching when we could just try to lynch scum?

No matter how much I try to filter out this stupid 1v1, it keeps returning to the game. At this point I can't even take it seriously

i still agree, would like to hear your ideas

[profii]

Happy New Years everyone!! I'll be out of topic most of the day.

@BuJaber 812. You said deadline been reached not hammer or majority. We have 1 more day are you misreading it or did you mean something else?

I'm fine with Mulch lynch if that's what we have to do.

Yes I was talking about the deadline. On page 27 mod said day 1 deadline is in 1 day 16 hours. I admit I read it as 1 day 6 hours originally, but since he posted that on dec 29th, it is now definitely passed the deadline. I just wanted to know what that would mean.

I think we should vote no lynch. If DH decides he wants to shoot mulch we can't really stop him. I don't want to lynch a townie just to stop him shooting. I am not comfortable voting DH even when ai consider that all my assumptions are wrong. So we no lynch to avoid a mislynch, brings us closer to night 2 where mulch can investigate if he lives. If we get 2 night kills and mulch is one of them we know DH shot him which is not 100% guarantee but basically means DH is conftown. If only one night kill it means scum either didn't kill or DH didn't shoot. Either way it makes scum's decision harder, reduces the number of townies killed, and is a way to prove DH's claim. If mulch dying is inevitable I'd rather we do it in the most beneficial way. The worst case scenario is that we're back here on day 2 with one dead townie and both DH and Mulch are still alive which is basically what we have now. Though if that is what happens then for me that would mean DH is scum.

VOTE: No lynch

scum scenario is as follows:

1 of DH and Mulch are scum = they debate the risk of a doc type role protecting the other and probably kill a random town

Neither of DH and Mulch are scum = they still debate the risk of a doc type interfering with their plan and personally I’d still go for a random kill just to ensure they get the numbers down - that’s their win condition.


In terms of a no lynch situation- no town death therefore, Derpy will likely shoot Mulch - if you believe Mulchs claim you need to consider all the other players and find the other scum. A little bit more what if for you:

We lynch scum, hurrah, that’s good, DH would shoot Mulch and Mafia will also kill. I reckon we’d lose 2 town there but at least 1 scum down.

We lynch town, Derpy doesn’t shoot, my bet is scum avoid our 2 PR claims to frustrate us tomorrow and less risk of Doc save- but despite their incessant arguing we potentially have 2 PR still - even if they did take a gamble on killing one of them; they can’t kill both so we could keep at least 1 of the PRs, that’s not bad

If you don’t think mulch is a PR, then you should lynch him now and try to make use of Derpys PR later, just in case he is a 1 shot vig.



I can see how a no lynch appeals but on balance given there are scenarios where we can make better use of Derpy IF he is the Vig, then it’s bad for town.

If you don’t think Derpy is the vig, you need to consider what you think he is up to - does he have the ability to kill? He is confident he can survive the night - does he think Scum will assume he will kill town and leave him in? Is he scum? Is he a different role? Is he gambling on the Docs help? At this point he still is as much of an unknown as Mulch really.


I’m going to get something moving.

VOTE: acryon

As per my large post, I posted numerous reasons as to why Acryons targetting of Mulch could be suspect. I know it’s NYD and the deadline approaches but I think he is worth a debate at least, he seems to have escaped scrutiny thus far

[profii]

I just read game 1963, Mulch replaces HEM and TIAM was scum haha so it was a good read. (It finished so I’m safe to continue I believe)
I’m not a huge fan of meta but the 2 points I picked up are
TIAM threw a lot of shade and it was quite reaching which I don’t believe is the case here
Mulch is massive dead weight in this game - he tried a lot harder in 1963 - granted he didn’t have a gun pointed at his head & he does have a relatively obnoxious play style it seems - so the thing I would say to mulch is just go back and check 228 (off the top of my head) Derpy said fairly early on he might not shoot if we lynch town- I missed that initially and I think I fuelled the fire a bit when it comes to Derpy vs Mulch. However I do believe the even cop claim so I’d like to keep you around but if you don’t care about us enough to put something into the game, maybe we should just remove (via lynch ofc) you as we are really just carrying you

[profii]

I thought I was fairly thorough, ask specifics and I'll be happy to answer

[profii]

I agree that a Stalemate would be bad. If anyone I could go for Bujaber, or as per your post Mulch if we really had to but I don’t want to

[profii]

You guys and your stupid oppressive hive mind.

You don't want to bring new cases, you don't want to fix the bombshell that is one claimed PR claiming he wants to shoot the other claimed PR, and you don't want no lynch when it is obvious it's the best strategy in a broken game as this. I hope you're right about mulch but I refuse to vote there.

I will post again in day 2. This day is supposed to be over anyway but mod isn't back. Unless something pops up right in front of my face that exposes someone as guaranteed scum, I will stick to no lynch vote and i urge you to do so too.

I literally just brought a massive new case against acryon, go read it, it’s enlightning

In the mean time, I’m going to read your ISO.

[profii]

Ok, posting this from BuJabers ISO with a view to making a case in my mind as to placing my vote on him or not. I'm sort of inclined to based on gut feeling so let's see if the evidence follows before I do anything rash.

I'll go through backwards so I look at the most up to date stuff first...

879: Obviously has objects to someone in the Profii/Hawk/TIAM pile.

878: ignoring my new case against Acryon, I'm hurt, but more importantly, ignoring the game either means, he has already decided where he is going and is waiting for people to fall in line with his world view.

868: (cant see what this is in response to in ISO but assume my Acryon post) so despite responding to a new case, he decides the hive isnt bringing new cases, or just not the case he wants to jump into bed with... i.e. one that is targeting a townie because he knows who the scum are. If BuJ flips scum, it's bad for Acryon.


849: the no lynch post - on overall consideration of everything, Derpy seems to be indicating he wont shoot if we lynch town, which I and Buj both think Mulch is. This is a logical fallacy, by not killing anyone, we know Derpy will shoot (no reason to contest that anyway) therefore, no lynch is essentially a mulch lynch, but BuJ believes Mulch is town. No Lynch means BuJ

knows

Derpy will shoot Mulch which means no lynch and no vig shot which is a highly safe position for scum to be in. It also makes a town case for Derpy if BuJ flips scum.

tbh I think that's enough to justify a vote.... I'm just going to double check the thread to see if it's L-1 or anything then I'll place it...

[profii]

No it's not, he's only on 3.

Just to echo what the mods said, I dont think we have made majority lynch yet and the deadline hasn't passed either.

VOTE: BuJaber

I make that 3 votes, I believe there are still 3 on Mulch too.

[profii]

Votecount 1.3

Mulch(4)

~ acryon, TwoInAMillion, Sky_Paladin, Mulch

PsykoSavant(2)

~ rb, Jodaxq

TwoInAMillion(1)

~ PsykoSavant

profii(1)

~ Derpy Hooves

BuJaber(1)

~ Hawk


Not Voting (2): BuJaber, profii

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-01-02 21:00:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

Performed 34 calls in 6 seconds. With an average of 0.205382352941176 seconds per call.
<<Flavor of first stuff coming later>>

BuJaber stop being dumb we have a day and some hours left.

Acryon, Bujaber, and Psycho have kinda danced around the idea of lynches most of the day not taking any firm stances. If we're lynching outside of Mulch I'm fine with any of these.

Come on guys let's use this last little bit of time.

VOTE: BuJaber

I strongly disagree regarding Acryon, as far as I can tell he is 95% looking at Mulch and made 1 post that said he would consider 2 other players. If I've missed something, please let me know.

[profii]

Rather do Acorn

because.........

[profii]

whats your thoughts on placing a vote on Bujaber given the wagon has started and there isnt much momentum behind acryon... i mainly ask because i dont recall you placing a read on buj for a while

[profii]

even the mods want to kill mulch haha

[profii]

what is the latest vote count anyway? I've got it as BuJaber 4, Mulch 3, assuming Pskyos vote is counted during that episode...

[profii]

Thats L-1 btw

[profii]

878: ignoring my new case against Acryon, I'm hurt, but more importantly, ignoring the game either means, he has already decided where he is going and is waiting for people to fall in line with his world view.

868: (cant see what this is in response to in ISO but assume my Acryon post) so despite responding to a new case

no i acknowledged you responded to my Acryon case, but had already highlighted that you said you wanted to people to present cases - but I did, so I think you want people to present cases matching your reads so you can get on the wagons.

& look! A super strong role that cant be verified by our cop claimer, wonderful

[profii]

Think I mixed up odd and even with BuJs claim... shame he didn’t claim Doc or something to waste the scum nk

[profii]

I would like everybody to take a look at what I posted in 923.

In this post I ask BuJaber to explain how he 'knew' Mulch was roled (the reason he voted Profii) before Mulch had crumbed or made his claim.

To me it looks like a straight up scum slip of BuJaber outing his buddy by accident, and this explains Mulch's subsequent meltdown - he knew the only way to save the team was to distract players from looking at BuJaber.

Like, have I missed some obvious post before then that Monkey or Mulch had indicated they were roled? Thoughts?

Hi scum

This day has dragged on so everyone is fed up
The deadline approaches and people probably feel the pressure to get someone as we probably all agree NL is bad
No one is really agreeing so given BuJ is very close to L-1 you need something to drag it over the line

Why not use a logically fallacy? That post was BuJ saying I shouldn’t have voted for Derpys scum claim, not mulch

Could just be an honest mistake but I feel better voting you than yet another PR claim given this is starting to feel like mad roles all over the place

VOTE: Sky_Paladin

[profii]

Helpful...

[profii]

I’m starting to see the same pattern with Mulch that I do with BuJ - If we don’t lynch or scum read the players they think are scum it’s a problem.

I’ve been trying to ignore it but I don’t think I’ll be too bothered now if Derpy shoots Mulch. He contributes nothing (well until D3)

[profii]

You would know

[profii]

Lol I meant Derpys PR claim.

I just had to put the pressure on to see what your answer was - I get that reading ISOs can be unclear so my theory was if you came out with some weird justification for what you said there... I’d be pushing your vote, but you didn’t so good!

VOTE: BuJaber

[profii]

Oh that’s back on L-1 btw!

[profii]

when did BuJaber claim?

Post 909 - odd night commuter

[profii]

BuJaber also said somewhere something along the lines of “Lynching me wouldn’t be so bad”

I am phone posting so can’t find it but that is one of the worst things to do to a commuter. Alright odd night but still

I’m happy with my vote.

[profii]

Is the whole purpose of this game to have as many worthless roles as possible?

Given we have probably outed most of them we apparently need them

[profii]

L-1 again?

[profii]

I think you are right

[profii]

Has profii voted everyone in this game including a no lynch? If one of the effortful posters is scum it's probably him

I would encourage you to read some of my analysis rather than judge wall post = potential scum.

[profii]

If derpy shot BuJ tonight, it would prove it to be fair haha

[profii]

I'm down for an Acryon lynch if he doesn't go find my post and come out with someone convincing.

[profii]

ebwop - @ Acryon - I'm interested in your response to my analysis, mainly the bits that relate to you, but if you want to go through the lot feel free

this post

[profii]

The first point is fine
The middle point I don't actually know the stats, but I think the logic that scum will aim for town is a reasonable principle. I went back and spotted the 1 shot bit, I didn't realise that until now. The bit that is most interesting here is no one seemed to correct TIAM & TIAM just assumed Derpy had the potential to be a SK despite saying one shot vig. I missed it so I can't argue he is ignoring the facts but it's an option
The last point - yeah I was just trying to look at the angle where you are scum to see if it made sense. Your logical analysis I like, but I just thought it became too conveniently appealing to everyone, a bit like a horoscope

[profii]

The first point is fine
The middle point I don't actually know the stats, but I think the logic that scum will aim for town is a reasonable principle. I went back and spotted the 1 shot bit, I didn't realise that until now. The bit that is most interesting here is no one seemed to correct TIAM & TIAM just assumed Derpy had the potential to be a SK despite saying one shot vig. I missed it so I can't argue he is ignoring the facts but it's an option
The last point - yeah I was just trying to look at the angle where you are scum to see if it made sense. Your logical analysis I like, but I just thought it became too conveniently appealing to everyone, a bit like a horoscope

Never heard of a 1 shot sk?

he could be a SK but he claims 1 shot vig, so 2nd shot = insta lynch.

[profii]

ebwop the whole point of that post was to link omg I'm dumb

check this out

[profii]

Is there really a reason to do it as Vig. "he called me a liar" is total BS.

[profii]

Well done Derpy

[profii]

Fos still on Acryon for me. Came into game after Mulch had resigned to death so fairly focussed on his for town points, Mulch also voted his way a lot. Distance created before inevitable scum flip

[profii]

VOTE: profli

The only defence I have is you obviously spotted something I didn’t I have no idea how you called that - I still think the liar reason was a bit loose but it worked

[profii]

VOTE: profli

The only defence I have is you obviously spotted something I didn’t I have no idea how you called that - I still think the liar reason was a bit loose but it worked

You didn’t read my posts did you? It’s more than the lie about my mistake. His predecessor was very manipulative. I started questioning psycho first and he latched on and then tried to blame me for copying him. That’s manipulative and not town ever.

I got that but you were pretty set on it. I wasn’t as convinced so I didn’t get it or could go with it as easily
I no lynched at you because you were so insistent on killing mulch come what may. Although it paid off you actually said you wouldn’t do it if we lynched town so I think it wasn’t so bad to be frustrated with you when we didn’t actually know mulchs role - at the time the vote was more symbolic to point out we should save PRs

I think I made some cases sinces but the game was very confusing so hopefully I’ll be less wishy washy here on out

[profii]

Last 2 scum in acryon/Jodax/Psyko/profli imo

I’m definitely going to go back and pay more attention to Psyko especially at the TIAM stage
Agree on Acryon
I hope Jodaxq contributes a significantly bigger contribution today now we should be less dramas, the low content and hammer is a bit fishy but hmm

And I can only point out this is the first game I’ve participated in (on this site) so doing anything beyond RVS on D1 is a bit of a learning curve for me... I’ve never seen a 2 week day phase but I’m picking it up (I think)

Also agreed that TIAM is pretty town now

[profii]

Had a gander at Psykos ISO quickly. I can see the scum read now mulch has flipped

It’s very different to the scum read I have on Acryon but there could easily be 3 scum

[profii]

Okay it's tinfoil hat time - I'm thinking derpy might be SK.

3 scum with a vig would make it possible to go to a day2 MyLo. 3v8, lynch town, vig town, NK town = 3v5 on Day2.

More likely a 2/1/8? SK first priority is to scumhunt anyway and be seen as town, get scumteam gone and then win off towncred while 'looking for the last scum'.

/tinfoil

Interesting and worth keeping on the table

Even though we got scum no one has really been bothered that the plan _was_ town lynch = no shot so Derpy shooting anyway works in this theory. It ended up good for town but worth noting regardless

This is a bit OMGUS but it seems he is the main person bothered by me, and I am the main person bothered by him - this also fits your theory.

[profii]

Explain how you knew Derpy shot mulch at the point you elected for self preservation

[profii]

lol it's confirmed scum who am i kidding

VOTE: PsykoSavant

ez game

I wanted to do that, day 3 will be easy

[profii]

I think there will be a day 3

[profii]

I think there will be a day 3

Do you think we were wrong about Psycho or do you think there's a 3rd party??

I’ll tell you what I know tomorrow

[profii]

I knew something was not right with Derpy haha whoop.

[profii]

Kinda sad my blatant breadcrumbing only tempted am investigate rather than you just killing me. Was hoping to draw you away from our apparent numerous PRs seeing as Derpy was probably going to tunnel me next day which I thought might discredit him a bit and push town in his direction

I also figured Derpy was a SK but thought he might have not shot until really late on to let some 1 kill nights give him some credibility

[profii]

something I got way wrong was TIAM - after Sky flipped mason everyone was townblocking him. Looking at Sky's posts he was giving TIAM town cards in almost all of his reads. So I just assumed given the lack of reason behind the reads he was bread crumming his mate.

apparently not haha

[profii]

I had a gut feeling on rb, so easy to of course because we now know but I couldn't say anything because I had no evidence to back the claim.

interestingly, if the dr was alive and saved derpy, the scum would have died and derpy could have maintained his 1 shot vig claim to the end, so psyko was the perfect lynch in a way

[profii]

I had a gut feeling on rb, so easy to of course because we now know but I couldn't say anything because I had no evidence to back the claim.

interestingly, if the dr was alive and saved derpy, the scum would have died and derpy could have maintained his 1 shot vig claim to the end, so psyko was the perfect lynch in a way

kinda pleased I got a bite there derpy seeing as no one was following me that you were dodgey as f__k in the game

[profii]

Consider it karma, actions taken in good faith result in an unlucky lynch but it was looking pretty bad until the scum teams sorted things for us and we chalk up a win

[profii]

I read the scum thread.
if i was the doc, there was a chance i might have protected the mulch claim.
although given by the end of that day derpy reiterated his intention to not kill mulch i might have looked for someone else at risk, i dont think i had a strong scum read at that point so it would probably be pot luck.

or just self protect haha

[profii]

Oh yay we won. good job.

hahaha