mini 2140: partition (this is over)
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Good afternoon,
I've been thinking on how to approach this game, especially due to the peculiarities of the setup. My conclusion was that I would need some time to work better on my impressions and shape my conjecture on the possible combinations in the distribution of groups before actively engaging with the playerlist. Something that caught my attention, however, was the time when the topic was released, because according to post 2, there were two conditions for the game to be released:
*Starting with 11/13 confirms.
*Mafia have a consensus about the d1 partition.
Therefore, by the time the topic was released, there was obviously already a confirmation of at least 11 players, as well as a collective consensus on partitions by the mafia. Considering that the confirmations had a period of 48 hours between the 10th and the 12th of May to be made, it is more plausible, in my opinion, that the margin of 11 players had been reached before the mafia consensus, which indicates that the release of the topic probably occurred as a result of the mafia decision, which implies that possibly the three members should be online during this period and, consequently, commented at some point in the first two pages. Evidently, this is a premature speculation, but I would like to share this observation because I did not see any comments addressing this. I intend to give a more formed opinion about the groups as soon as I finish my analysis.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Hum, I agree that they could have chosen not to post in the initial phase, but I still believe that the delay in releasing the topic is suggestive.In post 158, Morning Tweet wrote:
This doesn't really take into account that schadd probably didn't open the thread at the exact moment scum came to a consensus. i'd actually be pretty surprised if he didIn post 153, clidd wrote:Good afternoon,
I've been thinking on how to approach this game, especially due to the peculiarities of the setup. My conclusion was that I would need some time to work better on my impressions and shape my conjecture on the possible combinations in the distribution of groups before actively engaging with the playerlist. Something that caught my attention, however, was the time when the topic was released, because according to post 2, there were two conditions for the game to be released:
*Starting with 11/13 confirms.
*Mafia have a consensus about the d1 partition.
Therefore, by the time the topic was released, there was obviously already a confirmation of at least 11 players, as well as a collective consensus on partitions by the mafia. Considering that the confirmations had a period of 48 hours between the 10th and the 12th of May to be made, it is more plausible, in my opinion, that the margin of 11 players had been reached before the mafia consensus, which indicates that the release of the topic probably occurred as a result of the mafia decision, which implies that possibly the three members should be online during this period and, consequently, commented at some point in the first two pages. Evidently, this is a premature speculation, but I would like to share this observation because I did not see any comments addressing this. I intend to give a more formed opinion about the groups as soon as I finish my analysis.
that and scum could choose not to post immediately after the thread opened-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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In post 155, Ame wrote:Clidd and Albert for scum
I don't think you're evaluating the groups properly. Let me finish my analysis first and then we talk.In post 156, Ame wrote:We lynch there today-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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In summary, I have these combinations in mind:
1- (1)(1)(1)
2- (2)(1)(0)
3- (2)(0)(1)
4- (0)(1)(2)
5- (0)(0)(3)
6- (3)(0)(0)
7- (1)(0)(2)
The first is less likely, as it proposes a slow game and would involve Scum!Albert involved, something that I find a little inconsistent considering that the appropriate form of distribution would be to place players who are vocally transparent in each of the groups, because at the same time as one scum is eliminated, players of relevance would also be, which also makes it evident that the composition {Clidd, Albert} is strongly antagonistic to this idea, which is why I imagine it to be unlikely. The second would also involve Scum!Albert, but it doesn't make a lot of sense because it would be better done with the addition of 1 ~ 2 players to group 2, something that would be more interesting in the sense of cost-benefit, especially because the group 3 does not seem to me to be a weak trio verbally, which would be characterized as a disadvantage for group 2 early in the game and would make this type of formation unfeasible. The third is plausible, considering that the camouflage of 2 members in the group with the largest number of players would be a safe move, while one of the members of group 3 would be instructed to push against the smaller group, being able to use both the pretext of Albert's existence, which is a slot with a shallow playstyle, as well as the numerical justification, considering that only 2 players will be lynched, therefore, the loss would be, theoretically, less than the lynch of group 1 ~ 3. The fourth would make sense only in the scenario where the two scums in group 3 were planning to deliver Scum!Albert via buss to gain town credibility early in the game, but the fact that they only put one more player in the group, instead of adding more players, reduce the damage done and imply a very early disadvantage for them, which might not be worth it in the long run, considering that there would eventually be speculation and suspicion about the centralization of votes in the group, which probably would not take long to lead to the inference that there was a bus in the middle of the wagon. The fifth would be possible in the scenario in which Scum!Dsj, Scum!Enomis and Scum!Mohab were able to embark on a risky gambit, but I believe that this would underestimate the cognitive capacity of group 1 and does not fit the profile of Scum!Dsj ( at least as far as I observed in our scum in common), where he would probably strongly suggest the change of composition due to the lack of security he would feel. The push, in this context, would also be group 2. The sixth seems more plausible to me than the fifth, considering that there are players like Scum!Hoctac and Scum!Ame who could build a narrative where groups 3 and 2 were the main lynchs , under the pretext that the numerical force of group 1 would make the materialization of a lynch unfeasible, and that it would be safer in the mathematical sense to choose groups 2 and 3. The seventh also makes sense, with the same push reasoning of compositions 3 and 5.
Conclusion:compositions 3, 5, 6 and 7 make sense in my conception, considering that I can imagine the establishment of pushs on group 2 only because of the existence of Albert in it. That said, I am inclined to think that group 3 has expressive chances of having scum in its composition.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Why is a bruh moment ?
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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This sporadic behavior by Ame does not seem natural to me. I don't know to what extent she still has some paranoia for my slot, or if she is acting in bad faith with this push.
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Spoiler:-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I feel that your comments on posts 56, 57 and 138 were a more fluid progression. This change in posture did not seem to me to be within the investigative instance of before, which gives me the impression that it is a forced inference.In post 166, Mohab500 wrote:I know I said I had a hunch that group 3 had 2 scum in it, but I am actually having a hunchier hunch about group 2 being all scum, so let's vote group 2, shall we?-
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I'm not sure if this is a valid motivation for a TL. At the moment, my TL on him is justified by the composition of the groups, which weigh more on the scenario of Town!Albert being *him* (if you look at his past games), than Scum!Albert deliberately pushing a group maliciously.In post 170, Hoctac wrote:Something about scum!Albert's plan being "enter hard pushing group 1 in hopes of lynching it" doesn't sit right about me. It feels full of agenda and scummy, so I'm leaning town on him.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I still don't understand the reasoning of voting in your own group.In post 86, dsjstr wrote:I was also thinking of voting for group 3 tbh
Group 1 is too risky and if there is 1 member in group 2 then even without reads it would be a 50/50 we get them the next day.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I see Mohab500 as a potential scum for what I mentioned on post 187 and for the strange transition between posts 149, 163 and 166, as he does not contextualize the reason for voting on group 2. Dsj has very strange/confused opinions on posts 49 and 51, which are aggravated on post 189. However, posts 178 and 191 demonstrate a volatility that is making me reflect. In the case of Enomis, I liked post 63 initially, where he performs some calculations to give substance to the opinion, however, the difficulty on presenting a reason for voting on post 90 seemed more like an attempt to highlight the problem than necessarily proposing a solution, considering that he makes the intention of voting explicit but does not execute it, which suggests a scummy slow-push without compromise.In post 190, Hoctac wrote:VOTE: Group 3
clidd, how do you individually read the three inside group 3?
So due to the combination of the impressions I had about the slots, added to the composition speculations I made on post 182, it is very likely that their group has scum.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I think you're getting me wrong. I'm pushing the group that I believe has scum and I explained that. Albert does not make sense as a scum because the fact that he was placed in a small group does not seem strategically correct unless he is being used as a lynch-bait.In post 199, Morning Tweet wrote:Clidd you're coming across to me as someone who just wants to get group 3 lynched, rather than simply find scum and attack wherever they are
Although your 188 is an exception to this, where you say that Hoctac's reasoning for TLing ABR may be faulty. what do you think the odds are that Albert is scum?-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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In the scenario (1) (1) (1), there would be a concern on the part of the mafia to distribute the "transparent" players (who are more easily townreads) among the three groups, so that regardless of the group that was lynched, the mafia would benefit, as these players would be lynched as well. Now, considering Scum!Albert in this situation, he would be acting in a scummy way to attract the lynch of his group, but that would only be beneficial if there were other relevant players in the same group, and the fact that only having both of us does not justify this risk. Especially since there are 4 players on the playerlist who have a slight paranoia about me. It seems to me much more a composition to attract a lynch in our group than a planning involving Scum!Albert.In post 203, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Can you rephrase this? I don't understand why there wouldn't be 1 scum in {you, Albert}In post 182, clidd wrote:The first is less likely, as it proposes a slow game and would involve Scum!Albert involved, something that I find a little inconsistent considering that the appropriate form of distribution would be to place players who are vocally transparent in each of the groups, because at the same time as one scum is eliminated, players of relevance would also be, which also makes it evident that the composition {Clidd, Albert} is strongly antagonistic to this idea, which is why I imagine it to be unlikely.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I can understand your reasoning, but I believe that you are underestimating group 3. The pressure, in my opinion, would be in the lynch of group 2, considering the attempts to push during the day, and they only eased when I was able to participate more actively in the game, this clearly does not seem normal to me.In post 204, Morning Tweet wrote:If i were setting up these groups, it would seem really obvious to me as scum that Group #3 is going to receive the most lynch pressure.
It's got an extra player over group #2, so in theory, town would think they get higher chances of hitting scum in there. This is subjective, but they didn't put any of the players that i know are good at seeming towny in there (like Cat, Ame, clidd, Kanna). Someone in group 3 admitted they usually get scumread.
And now, indeed, the majority of the game seems to be having suspicions towards group #3. Even all three group #3 members seem to suspect group #3, lmao
i do lean town on Mohab and Enomis as well. Dsjr i dont have an explicit read on yet but i havent found him scummy per se
At this point, im feeling there's 2-3 scum in group one and 0-1 scum outside
I feel like group #2 has a better chance of hitting scum, and if there is no scum outside group #1, it limits our losses a bit as well-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Spoiler:
"Scum in 1-1-1 would specifically want groups 1 > 3 > 2 to be lynched in that order."
Why ?
"Forget the specific partition for a second, I've noticed that you've basically explained away scum!Albert in every configuration and it doesn't make sense to me. For instance, in the case where the groups are 2-1-0, you say this configuration is too risky for scum in group 2 because group 3 players don't seem "weak verbally." The players in group 3 aren't any stronger/townier than the players in group 2. In fact, I would say the players in group 3 are probably the least known players in the list and have already been attracting a lot of scrutiny."
Do you consider Albert to be a verbally strong player ?-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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It depends on whether he is a secret alt from Hectic or not.In post 215, Ame wrote:Hoc + Clidd?-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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In post 219, Ame wrote:Why would he be? Hoctac is clearly not the same thing as Hectic. Are you dyslexic?-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Ok, thanks.In post 292, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Lynching group 1 would instantly win scum the game"Scum in 1-1-1 would specifically want groups 1 > 3 > 2 to be lynched in that order."
Why ?
I guess the difference between groups 2 and 3 aren'tthatbig, but group 3 would mean eliminating an extra townie compared to group 2.
I haven't played with him, but based on what I've seen so far, I think he's lynchbaity than the players in group 3 if that's what you mean. He has proposed that we lynch group 1 and at least two people are townreading him for it"Forget the specific partition for a second, I've noticed that you've basically explained away scum!Albert in every configuration and it doesn't make sense to me. For instance, in the case where the groups are 2-1-0, you say this configuration is too risky for scum in group 2 because group 3 players don't seem "weak verbally." The players in group 3 aren't any stronger/townier than the players in group 2. In fact, I would say the players in group 3 are probably the least known players in the list and have already been attracting a lot of scrutiny."
Do you consider Albert to be a verbally strong player ?-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I had a flash back from Hectic with a sheep on Doctor Drew's vote months ago.In post 289, Hoctac wrote:
That's beautiful. Change "his tea" to "coffee" and it'd be perfect (clidd's a huge fan).In post 284, Morning Tweet wrote:
clidd, the detectiveIn post 266, Hoctac wrote:a haiku about clidd
he takes a sip of his tea
it’s quite delicious
im not sure if the last line is cheating or not
VOTE: Group 2
You have earned my vote.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Another proof.In post 298, Hoctac wrote:
viewtopic.php?t=81962In post 296, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Do you have any completed scumgames dsjstr?
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=82403-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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This narrative has no cohesion, in my opinion. Scum!Clidd would have placed himself in the larger group, for valuing his life more expressively than all the others in the mafia. Group 2 was probably shaped to make my elimination from the game possible, while group 3 is a bottomless wifom pit.In post 300, Hoctac wrote:Hang on a minute, I just realised why there's probably 2 or 3 scum in group 1. Everyone (as far as I'm aware) in group 1 are good at looking like town and don't get lynched very often.
In group 3, Mohab has said he gets scumread a lot. Doro is usually scumread (even though he's obvtown), and enomis I have a feeling is made of the same cut, given how he's entered strangely with this whole demotivated thing. Should metacheck him.
clidd doesn't really get lynched however. And Albert is a wildcard I guess, but definitely wouldn't call him lynchbait. BUT, they are exactly the sort of players that would have the confidence to put themselves in a smaller group and pull that off as scum. In fact, I think scum have done their homework and have put them both in group 2 so that we fall into the trap of thinking that.
Conclusion: Either, there's 2 scum in G1 with 1 being in G2. Or they're all in G1.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I haven't seen you provide an argumentative particle to your vote. I'm not townreading your debauchery.In post 328, Ame wrote:^Scum theatre-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Hum.In post 303, Morning Tweet wrote:YES HOCTAC ILY!! (*≧∀≦*)
I am in total agreement with that assessment-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I found the progression in the last pages strange, especially after the post 299. I still have a higher scumread on group 3, but I believe scenario (3)(0)(0) is possible, although my reads point to either (2)(0)(1) or (1)(0)(2).In post 330, Albert B. Rampage wrote:all 3 scum are in group 1 and will fight tooth and nail to avoid instantly losing.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Mohab, could you explain what you found scummy about my slot ? I feel like my eyes will end up ignoring your posts if I don’t understand how you’re interpreting group 2 individually.In post 428, Mohab500 wrote:-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Spoiler:
''@Clidd, do you have a read on Albert outside of partition composition?''
If you want, I can go into details, but basically it is because of the way he is playing. The aggressiveness he showed in defending the idea that group 1 is strategically feasible to be lynched seems to me an ignorant behavior that I see coming from an interpersonal trait characteristic of his profile, where he is probably frustrated/irritated by the gamestate, which makes sense within the scenario in which Town!Albert demonstrates emotional levels that would not make much sense in the Scum!Albert mentality, where he would be aware that his reasoning is fraudulent. In other words, it is my interpretation of the slot to distinguish that his expressions/reactions are within a natural spectrum of conduct, very different from what I feel about Ame, for example (which is forced).-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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In short: you do not understand my texts and the tone I am using seems to emphasize quantity instead of quality in your point of view, which seems to conveys the message in a confused/insubstantial way. Correct ?In post 594, Mohab500 wrote:
Clidd, I don't really think I am getting much from what you write. I'll admit it could very well just be the meta, and I only looked at your meta briefly, but it seems a little excessive this game. 153 for example, this post means nothing and gets across nothing, you write way too much and 'analyze' way too much for it to have this much holes. 182 is another one where it seems deliberately made to be confusing, meaningless, full of contradictions or otherwise just full of random assumptions meant to mislead us. So yeah, another hunch.In post 452, clidd wrote:
Mohab, could you explain what you found scummy about my slot ? I feel like my eyes will end up ignoring your posts if I don’t understand how you’re interpreting group 2 individually.In post 428, Mohab500 wrote:-
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If so, you could have simply engaged with me on these posts. If you really read my meta, you should have seen that this type of FoS is generic in my slot in every game I play, and that the action normally taken by these players was to talk to me about exactly what they didn't understand, so that it can be clarified. The context of your scumread, however, was distant from me, which prevented a channel of communication between us.-
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In post 617, Albert B. Rampage wrote:The fact that no one from group 2 or 3 has hammered group 1 pretty much confirms my theory of minimal scum in groups 2-3.In post 618, Albert B. Rampage wrote:if there was 2 scum in groups 2-3, they hammer, they NK, its 2v2 town is endgamed.In post 619, Albert B. Rampage wrote:this confirms 2 or 3 scum in group 1.In post 620, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Theres at least 2 scum in Hoctac, Cat, MT, or Raya. They would never self-vote group 1.
I agree about the game state indicating 2 scums on group 1, but I highly doubt that they are 3 because of the reads that I have on group 3. It would be an insult to my analysis ability to say that group 3 is entirely town, so my solve at the moment is 2-0-1.In post 621, Albert B. Rampage wrote:From perspectives other than mine its possible im scum with enomis trying for autowin but I can confirm I'm town.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Good reads ^In post 624, Raya36 wrote:
This is a good point. Because of this I'll consider group 1 but first I need to actually find 2 or 3 people on it I actually think are scum and so far I'm mostly only seeing scummy players in group 3.In post 617, Albert B. Rampage wrote:The fact that no one from group 2 or 3 has hammered group 1 pretty much confirms my theory of minimal scum in groups 2-3.-
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You are deliberately trolling or are scum, I am still waiting for the explanation of my push and the sudden change of posture on post 542.
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Did you have any evolution in your read about group 3 ?In post 626, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I think only clidd is confirmed to not be scum with 1 scum in group 1 by virtue of not hammering
I need to think-
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I think I was the only one who considered this hypothesis so far.In post 653, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Unless anyone seriously think it’s 1-0-2?-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I'm not surprised, my reads already pointed out that you were town long before.In post 654, Albert B. Rampage wrote:I am now confirmed town or the only scum in groups 2 and 3 and I just put both my scumbuddies at L-1 twice-
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In post 655, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I think there’s virtually no risk in lynching group 1 because I doubt scum made the partitions 1-0-2
I don’t think there’s value in discussing who scum might be in groups 2/3 in case there’s 2 scum in group 1 bc I have no idea who it is
If I am wrong and we won, I will be extremely surprised to have bad reads about group 3.In post 656, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Let's wait for consensus.-
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Raya is one of the few players who is seeing what I'm seeing on group 3, I don't think she's scum. Her opinions are socially ''safe'', but I don't think this is AI in her case.In post 657, Morning Tweet wrote:I am still wondering though, who is the scum in Group #1?
my guess would be D&D and raya but it's pretty baseless.Spoiler:
As for outside of group #1, I'd guess clidd..? I still townlean on group #3 and think it's generally a bad move for scum to put people in there. Easily could just be wrong on group #3 and there is in fact 1 scum in there thoughKanna/AmeorDaenerys/Amehas more compatibility in my opinion. Ame started the game with a random push on group 2 and didn't explain her reads about me/Albert/Hoctac, and then went back saying that I would be obvtown without contextualizing why I would be scummy before. She is a much more competent player than that, and it's stupid that she doesn't find anyone on group 3 scummy. I find myself easily forgetting about Daenerys' slot, because nothing she said seemed ''striking'', and Kanna is more of a PoE issue. I have different levels of TL in the other players, including Hoctac.
From my pov is:Mohab>Enomis>Dsjto scum out of group 1.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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In post 680, Ame wrote:Clidd, I felt your opening was agenda-y and that you and Hoc might have been partners. I hadn't answered you because I had mostly been skimming at that point. I didn't really read your posts in particular because they are not posts that I can just look through real fast. When catching up last night I finally got to reading your content and it's just obvious to me that you're town. Your tone/thoughts/pushes are all reminiscent of strawberry and Boon's game, and lack the nervousness from Conspiracy. Most substantially, I don't think scum Clidd comes at me the way you have and would rather avoid me since you seem to fancy and fear my ability to read you.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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What's your read on Mohab ?In post 681, Ame wrote:Also I do scum read someone from group 3: enomis.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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The only scenario in which I see Town!Ame theorizing Scum!Hoctac and Scum!Clidd without elucidating the reasons for her scumread is in which she is testing our reaction to the push. The inconsistency is that you continued with this during the period when group 2 was being pushed (117), ignoring group 3 due to the lack of support from group 1 in the lynch, and only going back when the players started to reconsider the votes in the group 1(540), which fits the Scum!Ame scenario taking up opportunistic instances.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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I'm waiting for the hammer.In post 686, Morning Tweet wrote:Is there anyone here that still thinks there's two scum inside of group #3?-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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Plus ^In post 484, Ame wrote:Even if we think there are 2+ scum in group 1, I think lynching it would be bad gameplay. I haven't tried to do that math, but I suspect that going that route has a poor EV relative to the others.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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You should have followed my reads.In post 704, Morning Tweet wrote:That's really surprising you went for that. plus group #3 fooled a lot of people including me reads-wise. nice job-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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You were pretty obvious to me from the start.In post 706, Mohab500 wrote:Thanks, glad I could take at least one scum game down on this site.-
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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clidd Jack of All Trades
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