Mini 1942 - Switchboard 2 [Game Over]

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Aubrey

[havingfitz]

I know I've played with you but don't recall specific games.

VOTE: Fish

[havingfitz]

Questions to anyone,

Mod too

, who may know the answer to these:

1) Can players toggle AND perform actions in the same night?

2) Can a player toggle their own switch?

EX. If player X is the roleblocker and he/she begins the game switched off....N1 could player X say Toggle:On player X and in the same night then roleblock another player (depending on the answer to question 1)

3) Are there any duplicates of priority numbers or does everyone have a unique number between 1-13? I assume everyone is unique.



Also...while I'm typically against early (D1 or D2) unnecessary claims, is there any reason not to full claim out of the starting block?

If we are assuming the roles listed are all in the game...then we could reduce our scum pool to 3 out of 7 (barring counterclaims which would be great on D1 as well). 3 out of 7 sounds much better than 3 out of 13 and it also prevents the claimed PRs from targeting each other. Instead focusing their abilities on the smaller pool of scum candidates.

Putting this out there for dicussion....so please don't jump to claim a PR unless a consensus thinks it's a good idea.

And the claims could just be generic such as "I'm a town PR" to make it a little more difficult for scum to nk specific PRs.

[havingfitz]

UNVOTE:

[havingfitz]

Mod et al...I will be v/LA from 3pm EST this afternoon until Monday morning. I expect to be without any internet access so I don't expect to post.

[havingfitz]

I'm going to beat this horse a bit before I leave for my v/LA.

I realize people are very anti claim early in games (as am I typically), but if the roles are all known I do not see how the net gain is not in town's favor to full claim.


Mafia has an advantage already in that they have a 60% chance (6 in 10) of hitting a PR at night...which is even higher 67% (6 in 9) if D1 ends in a mislynch..

Town is at a disadvantage in that they have an 8% chance (1 in 12) of voting scum D1.
Town PRs are at a disadvantage in that they have a 9% chance (1 in 11) of targeting scum at night if D1 ends in a mislynch...which only improves to 10% chance of targeting scum with a D1 scum lynch.

All crappy odds for town.

If we full claim...scum has a 100% chance of targeting a PR...but town also increases their odds of effecting scum abilities.

D1 town would have a 43% chance (3 in 7) of voting scum.

N1 after mislynch - Town PRs would have a 50% chance (3 in 6) of targeting scum!
N1 after a scum lynch - Town PRs would have a 33% chance (2 in 6) of targeting scum. Still not too bad and we've eliminated a scum.

But wait you say....mafia will know who our PRs are. So. If all the claimed PRs focus on the unknowns and the TBD Vanilla townies focus their switches amongst the PRs...that's 8 or 9 toggles all directed in pro town directions.

So high probability that scum are toggled off and most town PRs are toggled on.

AND...town PRs have a smaller pool of 6 suspects (because 1 of the 7 unknowns would have been the D1 lynch) to focus their town PRs against. Eliminating the inadvertent town PR action against another town PR.

BUT wait! That would give scum more information!
- True...but town would be getting even more information. Right now each townie has to sort out 12 other players. A claim would drastically increase town's ability to target the right players.

But wait...we would have our town PRs knocked off one at a time.
- Possibly....but with all the town PRs focused in a small group some town PR is going to see/effect scum night actions for the good of town.

They might not even get a NK off if the jailkeeper gets lucky (focusing on the smaller group).

And if scum is stupid enough to counter claim at the beginning....then our odds of starting the day with a scum lynch are 50:50. Even higher if the legitimate PR is convincing.

tl:dr

I don't see how a full claim is not in the best interest of town. Even if every single night action goes the way of scum...town is still working from a 3 in 7 starting position for focusing their suspicions and votes towards and if town can't get that right enough days before 6 PRs are nk'd then they don't deserve to win in the first place.

[havingfitz]

I don't think the claim idea is a good one, too risky and too advantageous for scum, our Power Roles are valuable for us working information out later in the game.

Also I feel there is a flaw in Fitz's logic:

Town is at a disadvantage in that they have an 8% chance (1 in 12) of voting scum D1.
Town PRs are at a disadvantage in that they have a 9% chance (1 in 11) of targeting scum at night if D1 ends in a mislynch...which only improves to 10% chance of targeting scum with a D1 scum lynch.

These odds are assuming random targets, if we scumhunt effectively these can be reduced a fair bit and not appear so bad. I appreciate that the same principle applies to the odds post-mass claim, however the basis of the idea is that our odds of hitting scum today are crap, when I would contend that.

The "flaw" you point out was left out on purpose. But you are almost correct. Effective scum hunting would INCREASE chances of hitting scum. But the same "effective scumhunting" would have an even GREATER INCREASE on a small unclaimed pool of players.

Aubrey is seeing my point.

[havingfitz]

v/LA over. Will effort to catch up today.

[havingfitz]

Post v/LA 15 page catch up:

Page 1:
Slightly hypocritical of me but I do not like Radical Rat's suggestion (post 19) that we out our priorities. Scum know who the town are and as such would know exactly how their (scum's) priorities would stack up against town. Best they stay in the dark on this IMO.

fos - RR and mozamis
lt - Raya

page 2:
RR post 28 seems a bit more townish even though I still do not like the idea. Question...how would we know the Rolecop's switch status and if we did know who the RC was....we wouldn't be concerned with their switch status in the first place.

Realeo's post 37 feels fake. For, not a direct quote, "I don't know if mafia has a nk or not so ergo I must be town" towncred. Post 48 seems like a weak excuse/explanation.

I like Key's post 45. ltr on Key.

fos - Realeo
lt - Keychain, RR

page 3-4:
I like Key's post 55. Still tr on Key.

Chick's post 71 seems to helpful pockety.

I like Mjollnir's post 77.

Brilliance - Post 79

Not a fan of Aubrey's toggle plan. I don't think priority 1 could say toggle on : 13. I think they would have to specify a player by name. So the only way to carry out your plan would be if we all claimed priorities.

I like IAI's post 95.


Fos - Chick
lt - IAI, Mjollnir

Page 5-7:
I beat a dying horse. I kind of like how Aubrey and Allo respond.
Nosferatu not doing anything is affecting my view towards her.
Realeo seems more town for his consideration of my mass claim idea (for better or worse)...the two scum cc scenario gives me pause for thought on my suggestion.

Mozamis' post 150 seems suspect given his quick willingness to out his priority.

Stopping here for the day, lot of RL on the agenda the rest of my day. I should be caught up in full tomorrow.

After reading the "optimal scum play" with regards to full claiming I was initially like...well f***...maybe that wasn't such a great idea. But as I continued my catch up read the thought of a full claim kept nagging at me so I want to look at it one more time.

The reads I give in my catch up above are subject to change after my entire catch up is done. They are just where I was at at that point in the game. lt= leaning town btw.

More tomorrow.

[havingfitz]

OK...let the (dead horse) beatings continue:

So I looked at 2 full claim scenarios where 2 mafia cc'd the claimed town PRs. Why 2? Because someone figured out that was scum optimal play and I agree. 3 CC's would allow town to focus on 6 players for the 3 scum and scum would not last long.

1 or 0 claims would allow town to focus on the VT pool. Still very much in town's favor.

So 2 mafia counter claims it is.

Scenario 1:

Every possible move goes against town. There are 2 CC's so we have 2 days with a 50/50 chance of hitting scum and if we miss both times...we are at least guaranteed scum the following day. Ex.

D1 - mislynch a CC'd town PR (3M v 9T)
N1 - NK one of the un-CC'd town PRs (3M v 8T)
D2 - Lynch the scum CC we got wrong D1 (2M v 8T)
N2 - NK one of the un-CC'd town PRs (2M v 7T)
D3 - mislynch the other CC'd town PR (2M v 6T)
N3 - NK one of the a town PR (2M v 5T)
D4 - Lynch the scum CC we got wrong D3 (1M v 5T)
N4 - Scum NK the last town PR (1M v 4VT)
D5 - We are in a 4 vanilla town vs 1 scum situation.

This scenario does not factor in any of the town PRs being successfully switched on or having any beneficial results.
Worst case it's 1 vs 5. If even one town PR gets some beneficial use of their PR town is even in a better situation.

Scenario 2:

If town gets just 1! of the Town vs Mafia PR CC situations right and lynches scum.

D1 - LYNCH a CC'ing SCUM PR (2M v 10T)
N1 - NK one of the un-CC'd town PRs (2M v 9T)
D2 - mislynch the other CC'd town PR (2M v 8T)
N2 - NK one of the un-CC'd town PRs (2M v 7T)
D3 - Lynch the scum CC we got wrong D2 (1M v 7T)
N3 - NK one of the a town PRs (1M v 6T)
D4 - We are in a 4 vanilla town vs 1 scum situation with the added bonus of TWO PRs remaining who are also essentially ICs and not under consideration for lynching.

This also doesn't factor in any successful uses of town PRs or competent scum hunting within a smaller group. The natural worst case progression of scenario 2 from D4 on (losing the remaining town PRs N4 and N5) would lead to 3 person LYLO on D6.

So basically both worst case without any successful uses of the town PR abilities and not factoring in any on or off statuses of the switches gets you at worst case in 3 player LYLO with 2 VT against 1 Mafia.

Best case...we get lucky with some of our PRs before they are eliminated and are able to zero in on the last scum by focusing efforts within the smaller VT pool for the win.

Sorry if this continued claim speculation is annoying anyone. I can't help it. I think it's some OCD thing. But I don't think I can express it any more clearly than I have so I think I'm done talking about it.

So anyone interested in a full claim? I probably would since I like having the information to work with.

Also...I was a bit busy yesterday so I did not get a chance to finish my catch up. Guaranteed to have it posted and a vote, depending on claim situation, by this afternoon.

[havingfitz]

From page 8.

@Mjoll.... my reads were given in my up to pafe 8 catch up and will be updated at the end of this post.

9:

@ IAI...my oversight. Correct...D1 town has 25% chance of hitting scum (3 out of 12). Still not as good as 50% with any PR claim counter claim combos we would surely get. Not sure whet you mean by "the math works out to 3 outta 7" though. Can you explain?

10:

Releao feeling town.

Feeling Aubrey is town.

@mozamis... I'm leaning town at this point on IAI and Mjoll. TBD on Fish.

11.

@Nosferatu...it's not "setup spec." The set up is a given. The "spec" is on the best way of approaching the open set up.

But that said...page 11 kind of gives me a slight town lean towards Nosferatu.

12:

@Aubrey...this comment was made when I was envisioning a mass claim without considering counter claims being the right play for scum. A single counterclaim (or more likely two CCs) would result in a mass claim being full and open vs generic "I'm a PR."

13:

This Nosferatu post has me leaning more town towards him and is making me sus Allo.

14:

<crickets>
Oh...and mozamis got a little ATE-ish IMO.

15:

Chickadee counting my posts is annoying. Postcount is NAI so why bring it up?

16:

skimskimskim
Fish is playing. Read tbd.

17:

zzzzzzzzz

18:

Me and the dead horse thing. Limited reception.

Caught up.

FYI...I usually am not active on weekends and this past weekend I was backpacking in the woods for 3+ days making me even less available. And now we are on the brink of a holiday weekend soooo. I should be actively posting until Friday afternoon.

Off the top of my head without looking at what I have said in my catch ups here is where my head's at:

Town: Me of course.
Leaning town: Aubrey, IAI, MJoll, Keychain
Slightly less leaning but still leaning town: Nosferatu, Realeo, Raya, Radical Rat
???: Formerfish
Suspects: Allomancer, mozamis, Chickadee

That's my gut talking as I look over the player list and reflect on the 18 pages I just finished reading.

Enough of the claim stuff for today I guess. I'm going to ISO my suspects probably tomorrow morning and put a vote down. Kind of leaning Allomancer but like someone said...I want to make sure it's not lurker bias or the draw of lynch bait making me want to do it.

[havingfitz]

So, you are your only solid town read?

If I didn't have myself listed I wouldn't have a line for Town. And halfway through D1 is not typically going to find me with a lot of "solid town reads."


p.edit...that sucks Fish. Good luck.

[havingfitz]

Two of my three suspects are voting my 3rd suspect with two of my townreads. bleh

[havingfitz]

Makes me doubt my Allo read more than of those on that wagon.

[havingfitz]

20 minutes after complaining. 6 pages worth of content, and all we get is an obvious statement? K

?

[havingfitz]

Changed mind on Allo....slight tr for now.

P.edit....thoughts on what?

Are you talking about Allo?

[havingfitz]

LOL, Fitz. Use context clues here. Yes.

Ok...what does 20 minutes have to do with Allo? That context is not evident to me.

[havingfitz]

I read 519. Where are you getting the 20 minute part from?

[havingfitz]

I'm confused as to what you're not understanding about it. refer back to 519. I'm being point blank on the matter.

I read 519. Where are you getting the 20 minute part from?

?

[havingfitz]

If it's the ladder go to his ISO and look at his first post where he complains, and then look at the posts where he starting "playing the game" shortly after. Assuming he didn't check the thread at all until being prodded, one would assume he was reading between this time period (in fact it is less than 20, I'm just rounding)

Hence look at his ISO and the time stamps.

VOTE: Allo

Allo's first post is almost 3 days before his second post. So I still don't see wtf you're talking about. And as that seems to be a contributing factor to your Allo suspicions...I want to understand where the "20" minutes is coming from.

[havingfitz]

Sorry...3 day holiday weekend has me RL pre-occupied. Will catch up nlt tomorrow.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Chickadee

[havingfitz]

@MJoll...have you been asking everyone to explain their votes? I can't recall. If not....why me?

a) I've suspected Chickadee most of the game. Scum aren't going to make it easy for town so I do not have any silver bullets against her. It's been a gut feel because imo she's come off as trying to be excessively helpful and I do not like where her suspicions/votes have been directed.

b) I don't care. And I've given my reads on mozamis and Nosferatu so this point is unnecessary.

c) You can't make everyone happy.

[havingfitz]

@MJoll...


i) Fair enough.

1) I believe a gave a few examples (weak per you) in my catch ups. She's had me, Allo, and you in her suspects for a good portion of the game (prior to Allo's claim). I've town read you. I'm town. I was tr'ing Allo prior to his claim. So that's the differences I find her suspect for. I do not feel like trying to dissect the contrived-ness of a comment. It's how I viewed them. That gut thing.

2) I still do suspect mozamis. A look at recent moz-town and moz-scum games I've played with him recently, in which he was lynched in both games iirc, has me thinking this edge of lynch behavior of his is more in line with his play when getting wagoned as scum. No particular reason for being reluctant. Probably just that suspicions a bit stronger towards Chickadee atm and I want that vote registered/noted. mozamis is still in play for me. Unless people start dropping off his wagon I don't think we're in jeopardy of a no lynch.

3) Everyone scum hunts differently.

[havingfitz]

Town: Me of course.
Leaning town: Aubrey, IAI, MJoll, Keychain
Slightly less leaning but still leaning town: Nosferatu, Realeo, Uzi, Radical Rat
???: Flubbernugget
Suspects: Allomancer, mozamis, Chickadee

So I back off Allo before they claim so I feel good about that. I wavered on moz but still suspected and would have supported....so bad. And I suspected Chickadee...bad.

Not sure who my sr's are now.

v/LA until Monday

[havingfitz]

HAVINGFITZ! WHERE ARE YOU? WE MISS YOU. IT HAS BEEN 4 DAYS <3

Hi. Just caught up in another game. Driving cross country tomorrow. Will read up on this game in the car when I am not driving and try to have comments/inputs nlt Thursday. I suspect no one atm. Chickadee was it for me.

[havingfitz]

Checking in. Sorry for the activity level. I'm on vacation and reading motivation is low. I'm town though so don't stress it.

I have a pretty busy day ahead of me but will try to get a catchup read through done (minus the annoying catch ups that Uzi hates) at some point today.

I have 0 suspects atm.

[havingfitz]

probably will ISO everyone on the moz wagon first with priority on {fitz, mjoll, flub} since those were chick's last scumreads,

Did these ISO's you mention 10 days ago ever take place?

fitz has been hiding behind setup spec for awhile now

I haven't mentioned setup spec since D1 in August. I've been absent...but saying I've been "hiding" behind setup spec is a bit misrepresentative and shady.

[havingfitz]

those who pushed/voted allo & moz

Did you determine who was in this group?

[havingfitz]

I'm more concerned that no one tries to sort my slot. Am I not a threat for mafia? Am I potential back-up mislynch? Do people genuinely have no issue with me?

Mafia would never cry out for this type of attention so I would put you in the suspect pile. Congrats.

Fitz, when you can, could you fix this asap?

Why yes.

Coming from the guy with only two scum reads (one of which that flipped town)?...

I want either IaI or Fitz but I was tired mentally at that point.

What do you "want?"

VOTE: IAI

nvm the what. Why?

I mean, sure, fitz has activity issue, but doesn't he is supposed to carry scumread from D1?

What are you talking about?

WE ARE GOING TO DIE! EVERYONE PANIC!

Not till the 23rd iirc.

Reads--
Town: Me of course.
Leaning town: Aubrey, IAI, MJoll, Keychain
Slightly less leaning but still leaning town: Radical Rat
???: Formerfish
Suspects: Nosferatu, Realeo, LUV

VOTE: Realeo

[havingfitz]

Realeo...your freak out over my questions to you was uneccesary and unwarranted. I was basically asking what you were talking about in your comment about IAI and me, and when you voted IAI...I retracted that question and wanted to know why you were scumreading me.

Both these questions were based on posts made before you started talking about RL activities. RL activities which I have no interest in and as far as I can tell had nothing to do with your vote on IAI at the time you made it nor, more specifically, your apparent suspicions towards me.

So before you start rudely ad homing people perhaps you should make sure you understand what it is you are being asked.

[havingfitz]

I retracted that question and wanted to know why you were scumreading me.

It is also in my iso. How hard is it to pull my iso.

During my catch up I did not feel like digging into every question I did not recall seeing an answer for.

Be honest, are you catching up the entire game or you are just catching up me because I am the leading wagon?

I read the game from the start of D2. Not you in isolation.

This post is 917. You started to promise catching up in 784. You should have seen that.

I saw this. Was this the only reason? I'm not being committal? Is my vote on you committal enough?

[havingfitz]

You flipped around here and there, like D4 play In Cosompolitan; that would be Mary Saotame and Vedith. In here, it would be two dead people + Allo.

So changing my reads from two dead people and someone I had chaged to a townread (and who claimed) is flipping? Excellent observation.

Here, it's a much happier fitz.

That's my meta...happy scum. j/k. Have I been happy in this game? I mean...I am happy but I hadn't noticed any difference from my norm.

Scum can paint a meat read however they want it. I find yours on me to be fairly inaccurate.

[havingfitz]

You're misrepping. I'm not talking about the D2 read change, I am talking about D1.

No misrep misrepper. You never mentioned anything about D1 and you yourself referred to the "two dead people"....which they would not have been D1.

Proof it then. Show me your meta.

Every post I make is my meta. Enjoy.

[havingfitz]

Happy birthday Fitz, whenever it hits in your timezone. I'd also like to point out that my government has set our election for the day the world is supposed to end, which I find hilarious.

Why thank you. And yes...that is an amusing association between the end of the world and a government's election day (which country?).

You do realise Fish was replaced during Day 1? How do you not have a read on Flubber?

Flubber...Former...Former...Flubber. Vacation induced oversight. Thanks. Because he has not stood out in my reads and I haven't ISO'd him. He's not in my top three atm so no rush to sort. Fish was probably 51% scum iirc in my mind. Not enough to officially suspect and Flubber hasn't moved that needle.

Was this reads list literally copied from your one over 500 posts ago, but with some townleans dropped to suspects?

Yes. Copied and adjusted accordingly (minus the Former Flubber fix).

[havingfitz]

@ Keychain,

If I had to pick a side for Flubber it would be the slightest nudge towards the direction of scum..hence the 51%. That 1% is not worth discussing or defining imo but you seemed to want a better read on Flubber than the ????. And when I said I had zero suspects it was because I needed to read D2 following the demise of the two players I had the most suspicions towards.

And yes...with both of them gone, and following my D2 read...I felt better about promoting 3 POE suspects ahead of a ???.

tl:dr; I suspect them more atm than Flubber.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Realeo

L-1

I believe.

[havingfitz]

will lynch {flub, fitz, iai}

Flubber is still someone I need to sort out. IAI is a town lean. I'll review your suspicions towards them and see if anything makes sense.

[havingfitz]

Zzzzz

[havingfitz]

Flubber 12 hrs past a prod...so he's good till D3.

8 hrs to go....no one off the realeo wagon suspect of him enough to hammer and avoid a nl?

Ffs non-realeo voters...c'mon.

[havingfitz]

Realeo...your reads were shit this game so for your sake (and town) I hope you are scum.

As for whatever meta case you are inferring points to me being scum, it's no better than your reads. I'm town.

PS...turn on...not off.

[havingfitz]

Do you realistically think saying "I'm town" is enough defense? I made dozens of posts and I'm still getting lynched.

It wasn't so much a defense as it was an fyi to you given the focus you had on me. I don't really see a case from you on me to defend against. Meta is what people want to believe. Whether your two examples show differences or not...they are still leading you to a faulty conclusion. On purpose or not.

[havingfitz]

I was busy.

He wanted to know if he could stay since he only received one prod and then he mentioned something about his scum partners.

Serious? So is the game compromised?

[havingfitz]

But did anyone see his partners?

[havingfitz]

But did anyone see his partners?

Or did he just say partners? Still sucks for the scum team.

VOTE: Flubber

[havingfitz]

Well that's that.

Looking at yesterday's lynch...might have a few questions for IAI tomorrow if we both make it to tomorrow.

[havingfitz]

Oh hey fitz...thanks for outting IAI with that hider death crumb. No prob.

Would have been interesting to see how the last day would have panned out if IAI had been lynched the day after I died.

My reads weren't great. Pfft.

Nice job mozamis...impressive D1 reads.

Interesting game mod...thanks.

[havingfitz]

@Key....

"Fitz must be rolling in his grave. "

Lol...