Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Prince of Paterson]

Greetings!

Hello Everyone.

No witty entrance post?

Enchant

confscum.

VOTE: Enchant

Reading more carefully, you should be able to figure out that was a witty entrance post.

VOTE: Greeting

[Prince of Paterson]

Enchant is probably town.

[Prince of Paterson]

Why does it seem more likely?

Because the alternative is you got spooked by "hello everyone".

Tell me what his post looks like to you and I’ll answer.

Suspicious attempt at saying "don't expect much from me".

The point is that I did.
Fine, have it your way if you want to withhold information.

VOTE: UNOwen

Are you interpreting their post as withholding information? It looks to me like they answered both of your questions. I'm not sure what your complaint is here.

[Prince of Paterson]

Liking Crescent so far, they seem comfortable, and the quick jump to read past games of UNOwen seemed a little bit more likely to be real rather than performative. Dwlee99's entrance didn't feel great to me.

VOTE: Dwlee99

[Prince of Paterson]

No, Owen didn’t post an opinion on geraintms entrance. Feel free to prove me wrong.

Are you sure about that? His response there seems to fit as an opinion on geraintm's entrance. It seems like you interpreted it as a characterization of your own post, but I don't think there's really any reason to believe that's more likely than him simply answering your question.

[Prince of Paterson]

Okay, what‘s his opinion on geraints entrance in your own words?

Seems that he believes geraintm was making pre-emptive excuses for his own play being lacking (game is larger, set-up is weird, implying he won't be able to keep track of what is going on) and UNOwen thought that was suspicious.

[Prince of Paterson]

Okay, what‘s his opinion on geraints entrance in your own words?

Seems that he believes geraintm was making pre-emptive excuses for his own play being lacking (game is larger, set-up is weird, implying he won't be able to keep track of what is going on) and UNOwen thought that was suspicious.

UNOwens ISO looks like I‘m the only other player in this game.
He‘d show interest into getting more out of gera if what you said was true.

And how do you think you look? You ask him a question on another player. He gives you a reasonable answer. You misinterpret it and take it to be about you. Then, even after having the misinterpretation pointed out to you, you insist that he must have been refusing to answer you and that his answer was actually talking about you when it's a stretch to even believe that the comment could apply to you.

[Prince of Paterson]

Does anyone else agree with Vivax's interpretation? This is a strange hill for him to choose to die on. I think it's a little towny to do so, though. Town often have a lot of pride in their own view of things.

[Prince of Paterson]

Right now, I think that the series of four posts starting with 188 are the most likely thing to come from scum that I've seen so far. Fredrick A Campbell inserts himself into the main conflict of the game, Vivax vs UNOwen, and tries to add fuel to the fire of one of the sides. The fact that I believe the criticism is inaccurate (UNOwen was referring to post 138, which Fredrick himself has ignored) makes me think it's even more likely that it was a made up reason to join what looks to me like a T/T conflict and encourage it to continue.

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

[Prince of Paterson]

FancyPants* - lurk idk
Vivax - troll town
MalcolmTucker - prob maf
Greeting - idk always failed at reading
Firebringer - hot null would't care to vote
Fredrick A Campbell - can afford to die
Dwlee99* - lurk
Crescent - eh idk
Lowell - prob town
bugspray - always failed at reading
PookyTheMagicalBear - always mafia
geraintm - prob maf
UNOwen - idk i started yawning at this guy, pretend that's there's something funny drawn at next 3 persons and i call it a day, too much effort for me
Prince of Paterson
Andante
MegAzumarill

VOTE: Enchant
When has Enchant ever made a reads list

Explain why that makes them more likely to be scum?

[Prince of Paterson]

Alright, that's reasonable. Do you still think Andante is town, and if so, why?

[Prince of Paterson]

Mostly I've been interested in seeing how Fredrick would post when not being as directly pressured. He's continued to move forward, pushing in multiple directions in what I feel to be a much townier way than previously. Posts like 339, 435, and 443 all are examples. I also feel that if his early obfuscated style of posting was meant as a scum gimmick to fake content or make things difficult to read, there wouldn't be much reason for him to stop. His posting style has cleared up significantly. I don't think anymore that he's likely to be scum.

UNVOTE:

As for UNOwen, I have a tendency to believe that someone who is being misrepresented is more likely to be town, but that's not really how things work. I independently think that Vivax is town, so his side of the argument with UNOwen is irrelevant to UNOwen's alignment. Revisiting UNOwen's ISO on its own, I agree that it doesn't look great. There is one post though that I really like from him: 366. It's an observation that one makes if they are looking closely and genuinely thinking about the game. He read through Enchant's readlist closely enough to notice that some of the reads weren't the easy ones to make, and it's good reasoning to make as a result of that observation. If it weren't for that one post, I would be willing to wagon him and see where it goes, but it makes me hesitate.

I'd like to see more from Pooky. I don't really feel like he has any opinions on the game that he cares about (besides that Firebringer is present) and there isn't much interest in doing anything that will help sort people or make the game more solvable.

VOTE: PookyTheMagicalBear

[Prince of Paterson]

Speaking of Prince, he has notably fallen off a cliff since his vote on Fred. He has two posts since then in almost 48 hours. Any good vibes that vote made me feel are all but gone. When he made it, he was feeling proactive. Now he just feels lazy.

When I see something that interests me, I'll engage with it, but I generally find that getting stuck in the trenches early doesn't really accomplish much for me and usually just increases the noise in the thread. I tend to prefer mostly sitting back and observing, especially early in the game. This game is a little more stagnant than some, though, so I do think some more proactivity could be useful here.

[Prince of Paterson]

Also I'm done with the "vote X until I hear more from them" bit. That applies to others also.

How is it a bad thing to pressure others to make them more readable? If everyone lets people get away with not posting content then we have very little chance of ever solving the game.

[Prince of Paterson]

Also, I don't believe I've done that. I voted Fredrick earlier because I thought he was the most likely player to be scum. I no longer think that.

[Prince of Paterson]

my opinions this game are that Meg is scum and I would like to yeet them

Then why not give any sort of reasoning why, to help convince others to wagon there? As well as making post 387 which will only make people think that you aren't to be taken seriously.

[Prince of Paterson]

I don't like stating "reasoning" because it makes scum feel more self conscious if you push them without stating reasoning because they don't know what you caught them on and freeze up

So do you think Meg's reaction to your push was indicative of them being scum?

[Prince of Paterson]

Since Meg hasn't answered still, the reason I'm asking about his opinion on the wagon is that I'd expect someone who had the reaction they had to the mini pileup on Fred would also show a bit of concern about scum being involved in the almost completely unexplained five vote wagon against himself. Responding to it by ignoring the votes and instead accusing FancyPants of tmi for calling it a bad wagon doesn't seem consistent. To me it looks like Meg couldn't tell whether the wagon was a bluff or not and didn't want to risk looking scummy by overreacting.

Hadn't really thought Meg was scummy previously, but this is actually fairly convincing reasoning. I'm okay with this, maybe Pooky is right after all.

VOTE: MegAzumarill

[Prince of Paterson]

You think Meg gives off the impression that they'd show concern at something?

Although UNOwen used the word "concern", I don't think that's exactly what he meant, or at least not how I see it. More that there's an inconsistency between the way that Meg responded to the wagon on Fredrick and the wagon on themself. As town, Meg would be more informed that the wagon was bad that they would be about the Fredrick wagon. So I would expect them not to be "concerned", but to be suspicious, or think that scum were taking advantage of the wagon in some way. That defensiveness and pushback can sometimes be scumread, however, so as scum they may choose to ignore it and hope it goes away. There's not really any drive to investigate if the reasons for being wagoned are valid, which is something that they already indicated they cared about when considering the Fredrick wagon.

[Prince of Paterson]

Lee isn't scum, I don't think. They don't seem to care much about keeping up appearances. The difference is probably simply that this isn't a very interesting game so far.

[Prince of Paterson]

Lee isn't scum, I don't think. They don't seem to care much about keeping up appearances. The difference is probably simply that this isn't a very interesting game so far.

Have you ever considered trying to *make* it interesting through your own actions? This isn't a spectator chat but that's how you play.

Limming scum would be interesting, and I'm trying to do that.

[Prince of Paterson]

I'm kind of thinking the reason I was townreading PookyTheMagicalBear is useless due to WIFOM.

I don't know if this was intended to be a dumbtell, but I am having trouble believing that someone who early on was reading carefully enough to be noting down interactions as non-partnered and correcting the mod on votecounts would not notice who the nightkill was.

VOTE: Fredrick

I agree with Crescent's thoughts so far for the most part. I think it's fine to trust her as town for now. I expect that she is a pretty good scum player who would be willing and able to control the game, but I think especially her frustration near the end of day yesterday at the lack of action feels uninformed. Scum would know that it could look bad in the face of an imminent scumflip. I also think that the somewhat shaky townreading of Lowell for being active near end of day is the specific brand of not quite rational play that comes from town, letting your emotional take on the game influence your reads.

I would be fine with a Malcolm wagon as well.

[Prince of Paterson]

Don't really think that this is the approach MalcolmTucker takes to the day if he did intentionally hammer a scum partner. If he did that, he would have been expecting to get some credit for it, but here he seems almost apologetic, and I believe him that he didn't know it was the hammer. I also like the way he reassessed after reading Firebringer's ISO and took back his suspicion there. It weakens him a bit to do so, in a position where he's already vulnerable. As scum I would expect him to try to more confidently push in some chosen direction. Making a post calling someone out, experiencing some light pushback for it, and folding immediately will often be jumped on by town and scum alike, so I'm inclined to think instead that it's just the way his opinions naturally evolved because it gains him no advantages.

I don't really support the Malcolm wagon anymore and much prefer Fredrick.

[Prince of Paterson]

Of course I can see how it could come across that way, but I didn't have much of a read on Meg at the time. The questions were to help me sort Pooky. I was interested in why he was so strongly suspicious of Meg but also not doing much to help convince anyone that Meg was scum, and even downplaying his own read accuracy. It felt to me like he didn't actually care if Meg got eliminated (or maybe that he didn't even want them to be eliminated). I don't really see anything that was a defense of Meg, I just wanted to hear Pooky's reasoning. And his responses were fine. UNOwen's later point helped convince me as well. If I were chainsawing, I would have gone for Pooky harder.

[Prince of Paterson]

Was starting to doubt Fredrick scum a little bit after reading some of his past games, but his latest posts have made me feel more confident again. 1013 is a very weak gotcha attempt on someone that he has previously had as one of his strongest townreads. Or, at least, one of his most talked-about townreads. Which, incidentally, is another thing I have an issue with: he very rarely ever differentiates between the strength levels of his reads in the way that I would expect a town player to do. There's no nuance or higher-level thinking, he simply notes down a basic reason like "solving" and then puts them in the list of his townreads with everyone else.

[Prince of Paterson]

If you're town, then going into more detail about which reads are your strongest, and why, would be useful.

[Prince of Paterson]

Townreads

Vivax
Gamma Emerald/bugspray
Crescent
Greeting

Townleans

UNOwen
Andante
Malakittens/Dwlee (weak read, mostly gut)
geraintm (weak read, mostly gut)
Lowell (only due to bugspray's result)

Of the 5 remaining slots, I don't feel that strongly about any of them being scum. I'd like to see what Fredrick flips, because I think even if he's town it will be pretty informative, but I can't say that I'm fully confident in him being scum. I think his lack of ability to produce substantial reads or nuance does point to him being more likely scum, but some of his posts have felt genuine.

Enchant is difficult to read. I townread their first few posts, but I don't feel that as strongly with anything since then. I could believe they're scum due to the limited focus on actual sorting or reads, and more on joking around and being present.

Firebringer I have felt at times could have an agenda. They seem perfectly capable of sheeping Pooky on a correct scumread in order to bus and then pivot that into a nightkill on Pooky and then attempting to take control of a mostly apathetic game. I don't think I actively scumread anything they've posted, but their positioning concerns me. Could easily be scum with Malcolm, as 1035 feels lightly partnered to me.

Unsure I like a lot better than FancyPants, but that may be due to playstyle. FancyPants I had a slight gut scumread despite their opinions on the game mostly aligning with my own at the time, but Unsure's approach after replacing in felt good to me. Looking back at the actual action they took, though, I think it could easily be partnered with Meg.

MalcolmTucker I felt could be scum from his day 1 play, but his posts early on day 2 felt to me like a genuine town approach to solving the game and it didn't feel like he had a plan at all. There hasn't been anything since then to townread, though, so I don't want to give that too much weight.

[Prince of Paterson]

yeet

Fredrick A Campbell [5]:

bugspray, Greeting, geraintm, Andante, Prince of Paterson

Andante [4]:

MegAzumarill, Vivax, MalcolmTucker, Enchant

MegAzumarill [2]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Lowell

UNOwen [1]:

Fredrick A Campbell

Vivax [1]:

UNOwen

not voting [4]:

Firebringer, Dwlee99, Crescent, FancyPants

yeet

Fredrick A Campbell [4]:

bugspray, geraintm, Prince of Paterson, Lowell

FancyPants [4]:

Vivax, Enchant, MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell

MegAzumarill [4]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Greeting, Firebringer, UNOwen

MalcolmTucker [2]:

FancyPants, Andante

Andante [1]:

MalcolmTucker

Enchant [1]:

Dwlee99

not voting [1]:

Crescent

yeet

MegAzumarill [4]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Greeting, Firebringer, UNOwen

UNOwen [3]:

Enchant, Fredrick A Campbell, Vivax

Andante [1]:

MalcolmTucker

MalcolmTucker [1]:

Andante

Fredrick A Campbell [1]:

bugspray

PookyTheMagicalBear [1]:

Prince of Paterson

Prince of Paterson [1]:

Lowell

FancyPants [1]:

MegAzumarill

Enchant [1]:

Dwlee99

not voting [3]:

Crescent, geraintm, FancyPants

yeet

MegAzumarill [7]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Greeting, Firebringer, UNOwen, geraintm, Lowell, Prince of Paterson

bugspray [4]:

Fredrick A Campbell, Enchant, Vivax, Unsure

Andante [1]:

MalcolmTucker

MalcolmTucker [1]:

Andante

Fredrick A Campbell [1]:

bugspray

Enchant [1]:

Dwlee99

Lowell [1]:

MegAzumarill

not voting [1]:

Crescent

Here is why I think a Fredrick flip would be both a high chance of being scum and also informative.

- In the first of these VCs, I townread or townlean all 5 on the Fredrick wagon. 2 of the 4 people on the second wagon, on Andante, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum. A third is Meg, a flipped scum.

- In the second VC, I townread or townlean all 4 on the Fredrick wagon. I townread 3 of the 4 people on the Meg wagon. 2 of the 4 people on the third wagon, on FancyPants, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum. A third is Meg, a flipped scum.

- In the third VC, I townread or townlean 3 of the 4 on the Meg wagon. 2 of the 3 people on the second wagon, on UNOwen, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum.

- In the fourth VC, I townread or townlean 6 of the 7 on the Meg wagon. 3 of the 4 people on the second wagon, on bugspray, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum.

Consistently, I townread or townlean the people pushing Fredrick early in day 1, and the people who I think are most likely to be scum are seen pushing the counterwagons. If Fredrick flips town, I would expect that at least one of my townreads is wrong, as the scum likely would not all be grouping up on the counterwagon to a leading wagon on town. I include the third and fourth VCs to show that again, members of the same pool of 5 show up on the bugspray counterwagon to Meg.

There are a total of 4 different players here that show up as counterwagons to either Fredrick or Meg: Andante, FancyPants, UNOwen, and bugspray. The people voting these wagons are as follows:
- MegAzumarill: 2x
- Vivax: 4x
- MalcolmTucker: 1x
- Enchant: 4x
- Fredrick A Campbell: 3x
- Unsure: 1x

That's the complete list. A total of 15 votes cast on 4 different people, with 13 of those votes being cast by only 4 individuals. All of them on a wagon that was secondary to either Fredrick or Meg. I don't think that level of consistent movement of votes is natural. Even if Fredrick is town, I think there's likely still something going on here, it's just less straightforward. And the easy answer is just that Fredrick is scum, Meg was scum, and at least 1 or 2 of their partners are among this group. The final one likely decided to bus early, seeing the position scum were in, and I would put my money on Firebringer.

I should also note that Vivax shows up on these wagons every time too. I don't think this is especially damning for him, as I've felt since early on that he is town who is often overconfident and often wrong, which is exactly the type of town that mafia would want to hide behind and join their pushes. However, it should be noted, because if he survives to endgame, depending on the flips it could be worth giving him another look.

[Prince of Paterson]

But the truth is im in full preservation because mt wagon has faltered and im not feeling fred and i know that means i die because im the other wagon so yes i have some aversion upin self reflection i kinda feel that to engage means to get better reads and i dont have time yet

There's one vote on you. I don't know why you're so concerned about your supposed imminent demise.

[Prince of Paterson]

fred is a trash wagon yet no one wants to move or do anything else but wait till it pushes through.
Everyone immediately dismisses my mala push.

Its like most people don't care that much for fred wagon but are so indiifferent they just waiting for it to be decided for them.
Kind of annoying

Have you read my 1160? It feels like either you haven't, or you're being intentionally dismissive of what I (and others) think is valid reasoning.

[Prince of Paterson]

I'm okay with an Enchant elim. I think that one of my townreads is likely wrong. Could be Greeting, I suppose, but he might be right about Unsure.

VOTE: Firebringer

[Prince of Paterson]

I'm okay with an Enchant elim. I think that one of my townreads is likely wrong. Could be Greeting, I suppose, but he might be right about Unsure.

VOTE: Firebringer

Yeah there is a virtually 0.00% chance you are getting me to vote Fire over Enchant, Owen, or

you

today.

I wasn't even trying to get Fire to vote Fred there, I merely pointed out how bad his argument for defending him was, and frankly Fire jumping to Fred as a result isn't a bad look, especially given it also made Gamma do the same, and Gamma just died and was town.

....And it led to a quick scumhammer by Enchant, of course.


Very much dislike the quick jump onto Fire. The quick jump on Unsure is a lot more understandable.


"I'm ok with an Enchant elim"

*Votes Fire while giving no reason for it*

You're gonna have to explain that Fire vote for me in detail because this looks like scum saying he's ok with killing another scum, but voting town for no damned reason.

Sure, I can go into more detail later if you'd like. The short answer is that by the end of day yesterday I started to feel like Firebringer was scum regardless of Fred's alignment. I don't expect to convince you of it and will probably switch to whichever wagon out of Enchant and Unsure needs more momentum. It's mostly a vanity vote. I don't think either are a quick jump though, as both were in my pool of most likely scum.

[Prince of Paterson]

I am wondering why, in spite of being townread so widely, my reads, which I feel are very widely substantiated, are not being shared by the vast majority of players. The fact that there are players who supposedly townread me and whom I townread (

Crescent

comes to mind) and who for some reason keep refusing to work with me leads us nowhere. It's giving me a real headache and making me wonder if there is a point in me even speaking about my scumreads anymore.

And yes, some of you people who say are townreading me are lying scum who just know that there is not enough suspicion to scapegoat me and throw me out.

Greeting, it's possible for people to both think that you're town and also disagree with your reads and direction. You might end up being more correct on your reads than I am, I was wrong on Fredrick, but I haven't found your cases convincing so far. I think you look for very different things when making your reads and it makes them hard for me to connect to or agree with.

[Prince of Paterson]

Right now, between Unsure and Enchant, I think Enchant is more likely to be scum. I like and agree with most of the thoughts that Unsure has been posting lately. Especially, setting out a POE in 1413 and then very soon after finding a reason to townread Mala (and also finding a reason to townread UNOwen, another likely wagon candidate) doesn't seem like how scum would approach a day where they themselves are being wagoned.

I also don't feel confident enough in Firebringer being scum to want to case there and potentially derail what are probably good wagons. Something about Malcolm just feels like town to me, he feels unconcerned and lacking an agenda. I won't fight for that strongly, though, I don't think it's a great reason. I agree with Unsure that Mala and UNOwen both seem most likely to be town to me.

VOTE: Enchant

[Prince of Paterson]

Explain why he follows the trajectory he did on Meg as scum partners with them? I don't see it as likely.

[Prince of Paterson]

A false innocent check on a mafia doctor would help explain why I and others feel like there's too many people to townread in this game. I agree with the reasoning as well.

[Prince of Paterson]

And the three mentioned went for Meg all around the same page. So it was some kind of super mindmeld, or cooperation at least.

Votecount analysis is easy to manipulate. If you see Crescent, Andante and Prince coming in with the oomph wagon on Meg, you might want to start to cover your butt if you don't feel like fighting.
That said, for the way I reacted negatively to that I could be a decent push here, but I get the feeling the remaining mafia don't want to try that.

Timeline is a bit off here. UNOwen voted Meg before any of these, to put the wagons at 5 on Meg, 4 on Fredrick. He then stuck with the wagon all the way to the end. His reasoning later in 539 was what convinced me to vote Meg.

[Prince of Paterson]

Also, Fire is the least likely to be a bus on that train, just because of the way he and Pooky interacted. To start day 2, I said it "Generally isn't ever a bus".

Only thing I ask is that if I do get elimmed at some point, you consider carefully whether you could be wrong about this. I hold the opposite opinion. Pooky and UNOwen's votes were the least likely to be a bus because of the way they campaigned for more votes and gave genuine, nuanced reasoning. Fire's vote and interactions with the wagon were mostly centered around buddying Pooky and didn't really have anything to do with Meg at all, until it looked like a Meg elim was unavoidable, at which point there was some obligatory attempt at interaction. The subsequent kill on Pooky locks them in as appearing to be of one mind and doesn't allow Pooky the chance to question if he's being buddied by scum.

I don't really see anything about it that makes it not ever a bus.

[Prince of Paterson]

Prince's vote to try to discredit Pooky comes a mere 9 posts after Meg, a train led by Pooky, becomes the vote leader. Prince's vote on Meg comes just 8 posts after Lowell puts a 5th vote on Meg.

So basically, he ignores the train until it's at 4 votes, then tries to discredit it by going after it's leader.

Presented in this way, my actions line up with your interpretation, so it's fair in a way, but I don't think it really fits what happened. My vote on Pooky was to pressure him to give more content, not to discredit him. I didn't feel like he cared about pushing for Meg to be eliminated despite it being presented as his strongest read, and I thought that had possible scum motivation. So I prodded him to explain more about his read on Meg and why he found them scummy. I found out through this discussion that he did actually care and had reasons for not explaining his rationale earlier. That prompted further discussion, which in the end helped to convince myself and I think others that Meg was scum. I don't ever discredit Pooky's reasoning, I ask him for more instead. I'm not sure how I as scum would benefit from that approach.

[Prince of Paterson]

We should be focusing on an MT elim anyway. He's really, really struggling for scumreads.

Part of me can see where you're coming from, but another part of me gutreads the struggle as town. One aspect of that is that I relate to some extent. I'm voting Enchant but I don't have a strong reason why. It's been easier for me to find townreads than scumreads in this game as well. I also don't think he really has this level of difficulty faking scumreads as scum, and so to some extent I believe that he is just being honest with his views on the game and is genuinely struggling to find a scumread that he's confident in.

[Prince of Paterson]

I think I can't convince mafia, so I'll wait for a few townreads of mine to show up and see what they think.
Which are logically the ones who aren't my scumreads.

Okay, but it isn't really about convincing. You gave a read that was supported by a narrative that is simply not accurate. What is your opinion now that you know the basis you provided is false?

[Prince of Paterson]

Just 4 more votes on Owen for another mafia down, presumably. Not voting that outs you.

Restate your reasoning for why he is mafia? What makes you so confident?

[Prince of Paterson]

The tl;dr of all of it is I think Prince is quite a bit more likely to be scum than Owen, and I think Owen's chances of town go up if Prince is scum just because of how consistently he has and continues to mirror him.

my tldr of it is, UNOwen never actually outed a reason for voting Meg, it was just an RVS vote that kinda stayed, andlike, what bothers me, is even as the wagon picked up speed, UNO did absolutely nothing to go "yeah guys vote meg!" so like, yeah... some people generally don't move votes around too much, this feels like it started as "I'm gonna RVS vote meg for distance" but then, meg wagon actually picked up, and UNO couldn't justify hopping off so just stayed.

You seem to think it's "super clearing" that UNO didn't move wagons? I mean, Meg is definitely not scum's most powerful role... I genuinely don't see how UNO's meg vote is "so clearing" as you seem to think it is

This isn't really true at all. His 539 is a good reason and it convinced me to vote Meg. So it wasn't an RVS vote, he did give a reason, and it did convince others to vote there.

[Prince of Paterson]

Unfortunately, flipping a mafia doctor would not fully clear you. It has already been mentioned that the mod has previously made a setup with multiple mafia doctors.

[Prince of Paterson]

Prince is correct, we know only that there's

at least

one mafia doctor in this game, so Lowell isn't cleared even a bit.

Unfortunately, flipping a mafia doctor would not fully clear you. It has already been mentioned that the mod has previously made a setup with multiple mafia doctors.

Why did you give any credence to bugspray's result in the first place?

Not cleared, but probably made less likely to be scum. We don't know how many doctors there are. I don't think the result is something that should be relied on to prevent his elimination, but I also don't think it should be ignored completely. To speculate on the setup a little bit, we haven't had any other results claimed after two nights. I expect town to have some investigative power. If the odd-night gunsmith is one of the only investigative roles, I would expect it to not be completely useless, and thus would expect there to be fewer mafia doctors. That's making a lot of assumptions, but the point is that we may know more about how useful the result is as the game progresses.

[Prince of Paterson]

like, none yall can give a solid reason to yeet UNO, so like... what are we doing

Isn't your vote on UNO? Do you still think he's scum, or has your mind changed?

[Prince of Paterson]

The question was to clarify your current position to make sure that I understand what you're saying. Because I believe that multiple good reasons not to vote out UNO have been given and you have not engaged with them at all.

[Prince of Paterson]

You didn't respond to 1632, for example, which refuted all of the poins that you made. Did you read it? I would like your response, if you have one, please.

[Prince of Paterson]

The way that Andante kept popping in to continue her tunnel on UNOwen while also ignoring any counterarguments and saying that nobody was providing any, then disappearing again, was starting to worry that my townread on her was wrong. However, I think her recent string of posts was much better and townier, so I'm not too worried there anymore.

I agree that Greeting's progression is strange. I think flipping Enchant after me would probably still be best, though, as it will provide the most information to work with. The motivation that scum Greeting may have is less clear to me, knowing that I'm town.

[Prince of Paterson]

super not helpful but im fairly certain one of malcolm/prince is scum.
And it has almost nothing to do with their interactions together. I just read each individually and don't think they make sense as a team.

You should not allow Firebringer to get away with using this to push for a Malcolm elim tomorrow. Please.

[Prince of Paterson]

super not helpful but im fairly certain one of malcolm/prince is scum.
And it has almost nothing to do with their interactions together. I just read each individually and don't think they make sense as a team.

One thing I want to be clear on: you should not allow Firebringer to get away with using this to push for a Malcolm elim tomorrow. Please.

Fixed.

[Prince of Paterson]

Lowell, Enchant, Firebringer is where I think there's most likely to be scum.

Unsure might belong in there somewhere. I could just be wrong on Firebringer, I certainly hope so because I don't think they're ever getting eliminated here.

I don't think that Mala, Malcolm, gera, or UNOwen are scum. Andante is unlikely but possible, and same goes for Vivax. gera is right that Vivax has consistently played anti-town and it's getting more and more difficult to continue to give him passes on it.

Crescent and Greeting are similar in that I think there's an element of self-righteousmess that feels town. Of the two, I trust Crescent more, both in likelihood to be town and in ability to have correct reads. I wouldn't feel confident enough to lock either as town, though.

[Prince of Paterson]

Prince I don‘t know what your read on MT is at this point after having a look at your ISO.
Apologies if I missed it, but that‘s relevant if you are calling FB mafia for pre-pushing Malcolm.

Crescent casing Greeting so extensively and then voting Prince confuses me.

You're right that on a surface level it is confusing, but Crescent likes to find associations prior to flips, there's already a wagon on me, and she has prior suspicion of me. The point about Greeting only really makes sense if Greeting is defending me as a scum partner, anyway. So I think it's a reasonable thought and a reasonable vote.

Of the four people I called town, Malcolm is probably the one I'm least confident on, but I do still believe him to be town.

[Prince of Paterson]

Quick summation:

Prince scumflip means Greeting scum, Owen town, Insure town, Enchant..Town?

Last scum maybe just Mala?

What about my townflip?

[Prince of Paterson]

i think its fairly obvious i have no influence on anyone this game to make any elim i want happen

Hopefully everyone understands now how wrong this was. I don't think you had any reason to take control of the game previously, but you are clearly capable of doing so whenever you decide you want to. This is why I think you as scum would kill Pooky. He would be your main threat for denying you that position after he successfully caught a scum on day 1, and now he can be a martyr who also happened to be your buddy.

Even with my suspicion of you I'm swayed by the charisma and would be willing to vote alongside the Bear Avengers, so you are obviously very effective.

[Prince of Paterson]

Prince I don‘t know what your read on MT is at this point after having a look at your ISO.
Apologies if I missed it, but that‘s relevant if you are calling FB mafia for pre-pushing Malcolm.

Crescent casing Greeting so extensively and then voting Prince confuses me.

You're right that on a surface level it is confusing, but Crescent likes to find associations prior to flips, there's already a wagon on me, and she has prior suspicion of me. The point about Greeting only really makes sense if Greeting is defending me as a scum partner, anyway. So I think it's a reasonable thought and a reasonable vote.

Of the four people I called town, Malcolm is probably the one I'm least confident on, but I do still believe him to be town.

I just realized how funny it is that someone with such polished, detailed posts as Prince is keen on defending one of the votes on their wagon that acted inconsistently in the process.

TMI level: Defending own voters

(possibly)

An inconsistency it is not. If you took some time to give what I said and the situation some careful consideration, you would see that. Crescent did the same thing with Fred, see 1142 and others. I think it's a dangerous way to play that can lead to wrong assumptions (for example, her assumption that Enchant and I are scum together), but it is consistent with her playstyle. And in this situation, it would be illogical for her to vote Greeting first.

[Prince of Paterson]

Tomorrow, I would prefer if you kill Enchant or Lowell. I'm VT.

[Prince of Paterson]

I would slightly prefer not to have the wagons swing away from me/Enchant since I fear that if we flip town elsewhere then we will simply be back where we are now tomorrow. I won't protest too much though since I townread the people considering Malcolm, and my read could be wrong there.

[Prince of Paterson]

Sorry, I haven't had a chance to catch up yet. I will be able to do so in about 2 hours. I see there's been a lot of activity but I'd like to read the full context first. From the bits and pieces that I have read, though, I think that despite there being clear issues with Malcolm's play and how it connects to his claimed role, a part of me has trouble believing that scum would manage to do both of these:

a) recognize that this specific fakeclaim with this specific modifier makes sense with the setup (mafia doctor and gunsmith(s)) when it's a rather unusual role
b) not understand the implications of what the role would mean and how it could be used

This thought might be outdated, but it is my immediate reaction. More later.

[Prince of Paterson]

That's a very tempting solve, Owen. I'll take back my townread on Mala, at the very least, because I don't think it makes any sense to vote me due to sheeping her townread of Andante (1852), and then when Andante moves somewhere else, instead of following she tells Andante to stay where she was. That's not a town trajectory.

Catching up now.

[Prince of Paterson]

Alright i looked Day 2, Malcolm was mostly abstent and just naked voted Fred in the end. But i never noticed "I Townread Enchant" even before from him. At best i was Null.
On this day he opened with "Enchant is my first suspect". Considering it's Gamma (who was locktown for everyone i believe) died, then i think same conclusion he supposed to had at moment of night...


So.
Malcolm, why you didn't shot me? DID YOU TOWNREAD ME? And if so, what SUDDENLY changed after Gamma death?

Hmm, this is a good point, and both improves my read on Enchant and makes me more suspicious of Malcolm.

Also glad to see that 1953 comes to a similar conclusion as I just saw Owen commenting on, in MT plus 2 of Lowell/Mala/Enchant.

[Prince of Paterson]

Malcolm you are not like your namesake at all.

The only way your role is provable is if you kill a townie at night, which you've just said you don't want to do for the risk of hitting a PR.

I would be willing to have a go at someone we may believe to be scum with town consensus. Then you'd know in advance who I was going to hit.

Good lord no. The problem with your claim to begin with is that scum can easily just save your target if you're town.

You're claiming a role that is openly detrimental to town once claimed.

Sure, I get this. Best to eliminate me. On D4, as I say, best looking at players who are positioning themselves around my wagon opportunistically.

Greeting constantly TR'ing me but then being willing to eliminate me pinged me a bit.

I think you're probably town in the end but I do have a tendency to read more analytical players in a more biased ways because it's the type of posting I like, I do fear you're trying to approach my elimination in a deliberately logical way that allows you to eliminate town without looking scummy. But then you've suspected Enchant anyway - no reason you couldn't have just let that go through.

I think Unsure is probably just tunnelled town.

Eh, I was starting to be swayed by Malcolm's posts, but I don't like this one at all. It doesn't feel like it accurately recreates a town mindset. The reads don't really fit with how he should be viewing the game at this point, especially the part where he implies that Enchant is town when mentioning Crescent's push there. There's an unsaid implication that Enchant is town IF Crescent is scum, but I don't think this is how that would be stated coming from someone voting Enchant. Instead, the Crescent read is predicated on the idea that she could have pushed town Enchant, and the fact that she hasn't makes her town. Someone who suspects Enchant would be considering the possibility of it being a bus, but there's no mention of that.

[Prince of Paterson]

That's a very tempting solve, Owen. I'll take back my townread on Mala, at the very least, because I don't think it makes any sense to vote me due to sheeping her townread of Andante (1852), and then when Andante moves somewhere else, instead of following she tells Andante to stay where she was. That's not a town trajectory.

Catching up now.

Where did I tell andante to vote somewhere else?!?

I was GETTING HER TO REVOTE YOU

I think you should reread my post. That's exactly what I said you did. It's suspicious because your only reason to vote me was to sheep Andante. Why not sheep Andante on Lowell? Why get her to revote me if the suspicion was hers originally, not yours?

[Prince of Paterson]

If it's in MT/Enchant/Mala/Lowell I'm ok with it right now, as there's no way that fourpack is clean.

Now that I've caught up and have seen Andante's claim, I agree with this as a list of elimination candidates, and I believe it contains all of the remaining scum. Outside chance still of Unsure if Malcolm is town, or possibly Firebringer if Mala is town, but I'm okay with leaving those slots alone for now.

My order of preference would be Mala, Lowell, Enchant, Malcolm. We can deal with Malcolm tomorrow. I will vote any of these four to secure an elimination, though.

VOTE: Malakittens

[Prince of Paterson]

Imma sheep tm town read

VOTE: pOP

E-1 btw

This is the post I was referring to. Here she is saying that she was sheeping Andante, her strongest townread. Later she justified it by saying that she also townread Enchant, but that was more about why she didn't want to vote there rather than why she voted me.

[Prince of Paterson]

we want to lim one of the easiest testable roles in the game?

Explain how you got from your only comment on the Malcolm situation being to quote this post, to now finding him to be "scummy as hell"?

[Prince of Paterson]

Right. Well. I'm not sure how nobody decided to check if Mala's claim made any sense, but it doesn't.

But hey if you guys want a flip with zero info go ahead a lim me

That’s just cool

She was at 5 votes when she said this. Her treatment of Enchant also doesn't really match up with someone who got an innocent result on night 2.

I think there's probably scum in that pivot to Malcolm after the claim.

[Prince of Paterson]

I think there's probably scum in that pivot to Malcolm after the claim.

Probably, but not certain. All four who switched were also on the 5 vote Mala wagon day 2. It's possible that's all town.

[Prince of Paterson]

I want you to go into more detail about her treatment of Enchant, because it's specifically her treatment of Malcolm I find weird.

Really it's mostly the fact that she didn't say anything about it initially. She is reading, catching up, and posts 1454 with no mention of Enchant, and instead talks about how Andante is very locktown and she'll never lim there. It doesn't make any sense to me to talk about a slot that you find very town and that you will never lim immediately after receiving an innocent result on someone else. It's only after that, with 1457, that she brings up a reason to townread Enchant, which is that they made a funny joke.

[Prince of Paterson]

Especially because if she had gotten night killed before claiming, people would see her flip and go read her posts and interpret it as Andante clear rather than Enchant. It's dangerous play and doesn't make sense from a cop.

[Prince of Paterson]

Ngl kind of happy andante went
She didn’t seem to be in cooperative mood this game

Actually surprised prince hasn’t accused me of being scummy for her death since her out of way goes to his theory that I can push game where I want

That isn't an argument that I would present. I don't think you as scum would be likely to kill Andante for any reason other than her role. I'm not that interested in pursuing you as a possible scum at this time anymore anyway.

[Prince of Paterson]

Ngl kind of happy andante went
She didn’t seem to be in cooperative mood this game

Actually surprised prince hasn’t accused me of being scummy for her death since her out of way goes to his theory that I can push game where I want

That isn't an argument that I would present. I don't think you as scum would be likely to kill Andante for any reason other than her role. I'm not that interested in pursuing you as a possible scum at this time anymore anyway.

Umm most night kills are for people you don't think you can elim during the day. Id say only 30% of my scum thought process takes role into consideration and only when i think the person is going to use that role effectively on me. I.E i think X is a cop and chances of me getting checked are high.

That post was not to say that I think you would have killed Andante for her role. It was to say that I do not think you would have killed her based off her play or so that you could gain thread control. I do not think that she would be a threat to you in that regard. especially as she didn't seem that invested in this particular game.

[Prince of Paterson]

Although I think Mala's claim is likely fake, I understand the case for not eliminating her today. That does leave me at somewhat of a loss for where to go instead, since it also takes Enchant off the table. I'm less confident in Unsure being scum, but it's possible. So is Vivax.

I'm fine with a massclaim, I think it's probably the best choice here. Oherwise we will probably just eliminate town and then end up doing it tomorrow instead.

[Prince of Paterson]

So can we start the mass claim then?

I'm happy with Lowell choosing the order.

That's fine with me.

[Prince of Paterson]

Anyway it's almost 1am and that was way more than I actually expected to phone post from bed . If anyone disagrees with my summation of the current gamestate, give me a reason why.

I mostly agree. I do think that Mala is scum, and Enchant probably is too. After the massclaim we can assess who the best elim is. Crescent, Greeting, and Geraint are my strongest townreads now. I doubt UNOwen is scum, and even if he is, Lowell should be town. Fire is probably just town. That leaves Unsure and Vivax.

I'll claim VT now since Mala has already claimed.

[Prince of Paterson]

Okay, having read Crescent's post, I mostly agree with the conclusions. I think there's not really any way from my perspective that Mala isn't scum. I think that Enchant is most likely the partner. Mala obviously should be flipped first. If it isn't Enchant, we'll be at 5p with 1 scum remaining. I think flipping Vivax and Firebringer/Frogsterking wins the game in that situation.

If somehow Mala is town, she should claim her result now, and it makes it possible that Owen is scum. I strongly doubt that to be the case, however.

[Prince of Paterson]

What's also interesting is that Prince's immediate response was to say he agreed with almost everything I wrote. It's kinda stark just how different these reactions were.

Not very surprising, I would expect, since you mentioned my previous stance in the post and essentially said that you agreed with it, with the caveat that I could be scum instead.

Also, Mala voting me after you and Owen express suspicion of me seems to me like it is clearly trying to create exactly the reading of it that you had. She knows she's the elimination today.

[Prince of Paterson]

So if we recapitulate and it's not MK and Enchant, there's not really a reason not to vote PoP

Question is who the last is between Cres/Owen/Lowell then. Writing off Cres, because mindgames. Owen/Lowell are a tricky duo. But Lowell has been looking scummier, so probably PoP + UNO?

Or Mala is just scum. How has anything that she's done today so far made you think otherwise?

[Prince of Paterson]

Okay, having read Crescent's post, I mostly agree with the conclusions. I think there's not really any way from my perspective that Mala isn't scum. I think that Enchant is most likely the partner. Mala obviously should be flipped first. If it isn't Enchant, we'll be at 5p with 1 scum remaining. I think flipping Vivax and Firebringer/Frogsterking wins the game in that situation.

If somehow Mala is town, she should claim her result now, and it makes it possible that Owen is scum. I strongly doubt that to be the case, however.

It's suspicious to me that Prince already has an idea for what to do if it gets to a 3 player endgame. Especially that he wouldn't be worried about geraintm at that point.

I townread geraintm too, but if this game is still ongoing when there are even five players left and I'm still alive I'd definitely want to reevaluate to make sure on that read.

I've already thought about wtf to do if I find myself in various F3 scenarios but that's just how I am. It is kinda interesting that he seems to be assuming what F5/F3 would look like.

Final scenarios I might not be here for, so I think it's worth sharing my thoughts on them. I don't really have any doubts about Gera being town and don't see why I should. If Mala is scum, Owen is town, assuming there aren't any other power roles unclaimed. I still think Crescent is town. That leaves Vivax and Frogsterking.

[Prince of Paterson]

This is what I mean about it getting harder for me to continue giving you the benefit of the doubt. I have been very clear that from my perspective, Mala is nearly confirmed scum. The only way she isn't is if Owen is scum.

My interest right now is finding her partner. Enchant is most likely, but I'm worried about the possibility of that being wrong. If it is wrong, then the most likely partner for Mala is instead either you or Frogsterking. I do not think it is at all likely that you two are scum together and I never said that.

You would know all of this already if you had been reading my posts. If you genuinely did scumread me, I expect that reading my posts is something you would have interest in doing. If all you care about instead is keeping Mala alive and finding excuses to vote town like you have all game, because you know that people will inexplicably townread you for it anyway, then this exactly what you would be doing.

[Prince of Paterson]

Having said that, though, I did just take another look and your consistent pushes on FancyPants and Unsure are at least a decent case for you being town. So in all likelihood, it's just Mala and Enchant and we can end this and go home.

[Prince of Paterson]

I think there's only 2 votes here at the moment. I've said all I feel is necessary for now, I think things will be easier if we just get the flip.

VOTE: Malakittens

E-2

[Prince of Paterson]

But hey if you guys want a flip with zero info go ahead a lim me

That’s just cool

If you (Vivax, or others) are considering Mala as town, you need to explain why she makes this post while being run up on day 2, as a even night cop who would want to stay alive to get a result that night.

[Prince of Paterson]

I can't rule it out that townies can fakeclaim things to nudge the game towards the direction they want.
Tried it once to get Holyflare launched on TL lying about a redcheck, never again.

Seems unbelievable to me that your actual thought process in reaction to that is that the claim is fake but that Mala is still town.

[Prince of Paterson]

This is as not-genuine as it gets and I already called him out on it. It also lends credence to Owen's assertion that day 3 may have simply been a setup because they knew he wasn't going to be hammered. If the claim was made inorganically, it explains why he forgot he made it

Perhaps it doesn't matter much at this point, but this doesn't make sense. If I were mafia fakeclaiming, I would be

more

likely to remember the fact that I had claimed due to the importance of being consistent in a lie. As town, I was being honest, and had no reason to keep track of if I had claimed or not already.

[Prince of Paterson]

Letting us speed through the day will mean that you learn nothing from my elim and we will probably just lose if it isn't Enchant. At least give me a chance to attempt to solve the game.

[Prince of Paterson]

And there's no town advantage to rushing things anyway, even if you think I'm scum. You gain nothing. If nobody unvotes here, most likely scenario is that Enchant quickhammers, people elim Enchant for it tomorrow, and if they aren't scum (I'm not very confident that they are), the final scum will likely win in ELo.

I'm mostly asking Owen because Crescent is gone and I doubt Frogsterking will.

[Prince of Paterson]

No, it won't. I'll have some time either tonight or tomorrow morning to look things over in full. I ask that I be given time to do that. If you still decide that I'm most likely scum after that, so be it, but at least I will have given what I can to help solve the game after I'm gone.

[Prince of Paterson]

Explain why.