Mafia 90-Lolwat? Mafia, Game Over, Mafia Win

[Vino]

/confirm

[Vino]

But still no phpBB3!

[Vino]

/watch

[Vino]

Vote: Yosarian2

because Christmas is over and his avatar still has a Christmas hat on. Also I am a scrooge.

[Vino]

That's really not true; especally in a large game like this, a small early bandwagon is unlikely to go to a lynch, it gives the town something to talk about, and gets the game going. Frankly, the chances of a random early speedlynch without the guy even getting a chance to claim in a game like this are close enough to zero so as to not even be worth worrying about.

So you think Bandwagonning in a game like this is okay?

Dude. There are times when bandwagoning is perfectly acceptable. Granted, wagoning for the sake of wagoning is scummy, but if everybody went off on their own tangents and never came to a consensus, the game would make no progress.

Unvote: roflcopter
Serious vote: MafiaSSK

I thought this wagoning for the sake of wagoning...

I am not wagoning for the sake of wagoning; I am attacking your views on wagoning.

Vote: Strangercoug

for misunderstanding MafiaSSK's statement in a way that I don't think is even possible.

From my understanding of SC's meta, this isn't how he plays as scum.

I don't have anything of substance to add to this discussion because I think the whole bandwagon deal was frivolous and inconclusive of scum behavior. I just wanted to make a big quote hole.

[Vino]

I would love to get in on this discussion but it is moving very fast, has nothing to do with me, and seems to be between a group of people who have known each other for a while, so I have very little to contribute. Also this is my first large game and I've never played with so many people, so I'm having trouble sorting out who is who.

I don't know what to make of the SC/SSK misunderstanding because I don't even understand what "I thought this wagoning for the sake of wagoning..." is supposed to mean, it's not a valid English sentence.

Anyways, good time as any to

Unvote

my random vote.

Also re-reading the thread I must comment on this off-topic:

I think anti-discussion is only a scummy mistake if it's intentional.

Mistakes are rarely intentionally made.

People can certainly do things intentionally that later turn out to be mistakes.

[Vino]

Two scenarios.

A) Townie sees a lurker, and starts prodding him to be more active. Lurkers tend to be scum, so this is a pro-town move.
B) Scum sees a lurker, and uses the pro-towniness of prodding lurkers to try to start a bandwagon, an anti-town move.

So, we can't really establish his vote on a lurker as a pro-town or anti-town move. As these people are saying though, the way he behaved afterwards is particularly revealing.

A Brief History of Litral:

Random vote on Empking, makes a joke about starting a bandwagon
Attacked by Honcho and SSK.
Makes a snarky comment about the previous vote
"anti-discussion is only a scummy mistake if it's intentional" followed by discussions of this comment
tyhess agrees with Litral
Litral attacks SC
Backs off SC, Vote-prod 14, seconded by Lowell
Attacked by dude-whose-name-I-can't-pronounce GnKoichi.
14 not redeemed by a pro-town post
Attacked again by GnKoichi and Penguins and SC, "Jester" comments
Attacked by Yosarian2

And now attacked by me.

I think jester is a very high likelihood for Litral, which is why I'm not voting him. His remarks read more to me of jester than blundering scum.

[Vino]

This is my first non-newbie game, so I didn't know jesters are uncommon. The game description said there may be one. I figure pointing it out might be helpful, because if we lynch a jester he wins.

GnKoichi, I did say why I thought he was jester and not scum, that was this:

His remarks read more to me of jester than blundering scum.

It was not very specific so I apologize. It was jestery in my opinion only because it was sloppy for scum play. I guess the term "very high likelihood" was strong phrasing for the associated logic, I tend to speak in absolutes too much.

After further thinking last night, his play was pretty sloppy for a jester too, so I'm not convinced he's that either. I made the list of things he'd done so I could see in short form how he'd interacted with other players.

I'm not liking Serengeti's willingness to hammer two people on such little evidence.

I'm also not liking #201.

[Vino]

Do I have to be specific?

Upon even further thinking I realize that if jester is such a rare role, then playing it obviously is not a bad tactic, so Litral's actions are in line with jester play. Still not convinced he is one, but I prefer it to scum.

[Vino]

This game is moving a lot faster than I am used to.

I'm also not liking #201.

FoS: Vino

for coming off here as not wanting Litral to talk about his refusal to unvote Numberfourteen.

What? When/how did I do that? What's it have to do with that quote?

Reason I don't like 201 is the willingness to unilaterally pardon two other players so early in the game. Serengeti and Yosarian don't read as scum to me either, but I'm not going to write them off as town so soon, I've made that mistake before. It makes you look paired with at least one of them.

Also talking so nonchalantly about lynching bothers me. I figure that much would be obvious to everybody here, so I'm surprised I am bothering having to explain it.

I also believe Lowell's mason claim, but if I understand correctly that doesn't mean he's not scum right? Some mason can be traitorous, and his masonites wouldn't know?

Knight, off topic: Isn't that a Muse song? Does the name have any significance?

[Vino]

If you're not scum, you're a distraction of the highest order, and the town will be better off without you either way.

this sentence is a

huge, glaring scumtell

Yeah you're right but I can vouch for Koichi's relative trustworthiness.

So you're a mason partner with him?

So the masons are Lowell, Serengeti, Yosarian2, ________ and GnKoichi? Is this the reason you voted Honcho for vague reasons? The fifth is roflcopter perhaps, for his earlier vindications of you two? Hmmmmm? Something is quite scummy about this mason group, so the revelation that it exists means nothing to me. All of the masons ping high on my scumdar. Lowell's claim still remains dubious in my mind. There is no apparent motive.

Or is the vote of confidence purely meta?

PS I also think that line was quite telling for GnKoichi.

Generally, if there is a jester in a large game, if you lynch him it dosn't hurt the town's chances of winning. The jester either wins or loses, but it has no effect on anyone else. So if there's a jester in the game, lynching him day 1 isn't really a bad thing anyway; it's not as good as lynching a scum, but much better then lynching town.

I was under the impression it would count as a mafia lose / town lose / jester win if the jester was lynched first. The jester role was in my mind a hot potato. If what you say is true then I officially stop caring about jesters in 3... 2... 1...

and my town read on yosarian goes up in smoke

You see what I mean now?

Also, stop coattailing other people, the scumminess of it doesn't look very good on you.

[Vino]

I actually don't care who the masons are. Like I said it doesn't matter to me, half of them are scum anyways, and the scum already know or will know shortly who they are, so town might as well know too. What I care to learn from Serengeti is why she voted Honcho, why she was defending GnKoinchi, and why she felt it necessary to out you. No explanations for any of these actions, and I plan to vote her if a good explanation is not forthcoming.

[Vino]

I actually don't care who the masons are.

You just spent a whole post trying to find out who the masons are, speculating, asking people, ect. Now you're going to pretend you don't care?

Something is quite scummy about this mason group, so the revelation that it exists means nothing to me.

Like I said it doesn't matter to me, half of them are scum anyways

Um...what? Do you know something I don't?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Obviously only one or two, but it means that about the same ratio of general players to scum exists for mason players to scum, so knowing which of the masons are scum is useless until the scum is routed and we can confirm townie masons. I don't understand why this isn't obvious to everybody. Am I missing something?

[Vino]

Coug, I don't see where I implied anything like that. My understanding of the rules are lacking as there was no beginning night phase, so I am not sure if scum were allowed to talk before the game or no. If yes, and there is a scum in the masons, then all of the scum already know all of the masons. If no, then they will as soon as N1 begins. This means scum know or will soon know all of the masons. Isn't there no sense in keeping that info from the town if scum already know it?

Yos, perhaps I'm making too many assumptions here. Like I said before, this is my first non-newbie game. If one of the masons is a scum, then knowing that people are masons does not make them confirmed townies. Therefore we have to route the scum before we can establish which of the masons are townie masons. Also we have to know how many scum masons exist in the game, which hopefully is only 1, because >1 would be quite complicated to find.

[Vino]

Yos, perhaps I'm making too many assumptions here. Like I said before, this is my first non-newbie game. If one of the masons is a scum, then knowing that people are masons does not make them confirmed townies.

Well, yes, obviously. I'm still wondering why you seem to be assuming that one of the masons is scum, though.

One of the masons said it was a large group, so he was guessing that at least one of them must be scum. (Lowell? When he claimed? Can't be bothered to dig up the post.) Naturally all of this logic is reliant upon that, and since he is the resident expert I am taking it as the most likely scenario. Since he found it suitable to reveal his masonry, he must be relatively positive that there is a scum in their midst, so I find it reasonable to assume that he is correct.

Which is also an odd part of your post; if there are scum masons, why would you assume there is only 1? Or, how would we find out how many there are, or whatever?

I am not assuming such. I don't know where you got that idea. I specifically stated earlier that there may be many. If there is one it is much easier to purge them. If there is many I think town may as well ignore the fact that there are masons. The problem, as you say, is not finding the scum masons, but establishing how many scum masons exist.

Serengeti, you

did not address my questions.

I want to know:

* Why did you vote Honcho for no given reason?
* Why did you defend GnKoichi for no given reason?
* Why did you feel it necessary to out Yos as a mason? You could have pushed a lynch on Yos without claiming mason and outing him.

These are all scummy things and I want them accounted for. And let me add to it:

* Why are you pushing mason lynches?

Answer these questions or invoke a vote from me.

[Vino]

Um...Lowell is the resident expert? Of what?

There is a difference between other people's posts, that have said that there's a pretty good chance there is a scum, and your posts, which seemed to imply you already knew there was a scum mason.

No. I am just taking the idea that there is one or more scum masons to its logical conclusion. I am a fan of the idea that there are no scum masons, but it just doesn't seem likely.

And well... maybe not resident expert, but what I meat was he certainly knows more about masons than I do.

Then what were you talking about when you started talking about confirming people as townie masons?

a) There is a high likelihood of scum masons.
b) Until we know which mason is scum, we can't confirm masons as townies.
c) Until we know how many scum masons exist, we can't know whether we've cleared out all scum masons.

Until these conditions are satisfied we can not confirm masons as townies.

I have a common problem playing mafia games were as a townie I make logical conclusions using publicly available knowledge, and present my findings to the town, who accuse me of being scum because I have apparently confidential knowledge. This is what is happening now. If you follow my logic, however, you will see that nothing I am saying can not be extrapolated from publicly available information. I'm sorry for not making myself more clear.

[Vino]

*meant

[Vino]

Fine. All of this is beside the point. My purpose in #261 was to ask Serengeti questions, not to extrapolate on masonry. The purpose of pointing out mason connections was to demonstrate my point: she was acting sketchy. Why was she defending GnKoichi and attacking Honcho? Saying "half of the masons" was a euphemism - I was exaggerating for the purpose of sarcasm. Believe what you like, but if you want to vote me, please spell my nick properly.

[Vino]

Thanks.

[Vino]

Serengeti, Honcho made what I thought was a valid point about GnKoichi as it reflected what I was thinking at the time. Your response was:

For density of mind, and until he sees the light:

unvote, vote: HeadHoncho

This tells me that you think Honcho does not know something that you do, and therefore is acting "dense." You had said just previously:

I can vouch for Koichi's relative trustworthiness.

Unless I'm missing something this tells me that you are either scum partners or mason partners with GnKoichi. Until I have reason to believe otherwise I will assume scum. You then proceeded to out a fellow mason with no proof that he is scum, and promoting the lynching of masons does not impress me either, having masons would be useful to town if we ever are able to establish who the mason scum are, assuming they do not get NK'd.

Vote: Penguins of the Serengeti

[Vino]

In the event of three scum and one of them is a mason, there is a 3/16 chance that a random player is a scum and a 1/5 chance that a random mason is a scum. That makes an 18.75% chance of lynching scum if we use a random player and 20% chance of lynching scum if we use a random mason. The difference is statistically insignificant and not worth exposing fellow masons over. If there are four scum then a random player actually has a greater chance (25%) of lynching scum than a random mason. Claiming there are multiple scum masons is a great way to make your chances seem greater. Either way it is pretty scummy to vouch for killing masons.

[Vino]

Claiming there are multiple scum masons is a great way to make your chances seem greater.

So...you think she would do that as scum...why?

Read the numbers I just posted. Her argument is that indiscriminately killing masons is a pro-town strategy.

If

she is scum, she wants it to appear as if the ratio of scum-mason to mason is higher than the ratio of scum to town, so that the town concentrates on lynching masons. Those numbers don't add up, but that's still her argument. It's pretty simple logic. Take off your "Vino is scum" colored glasses for a moment.

Either way it is pretty scummy to vouch for killing masons.

Unless they're scum, duh.

This guy just keeps getting scummier...

She's not vouching for killing scum masons. She's vouching for killing

any

mason, because she says we're better off that way. Look:

Do that, scumbag, and the more dead town masons litter the morgue, the higher the chances that the scum masons will be weeded out.

She wants to kill

all masons

. The problem with that is the math simply doesn't add up. We stand just as good if not better of a chance of killing scum if we ignore the fact that there are masons.

Honcho, you just linked to an entire page. Which post on that page did you think is the protown post? Also, s/dumb/poorly worded/

[Vino]

I was wondering. I heard someone say at some point that there are five masons. Maybe I heard wrong. However, I identified six mason players in play.

Lowell outed himself.
Serengeti outed herself.
Serengeti outed Koichi, Yos, orange, and #14

This adds to six, and was a point of consternation to me for some time. Anyway, it just demonstrates my point. She outed

all

of the masons other than Lowell.

Concerning Serengeti's mason-hunting, in my haste I quoted the wrong post from her last time:

This is not a conventional strategy, but perhaps we ought to consider lynching a mason today, or at least early in the game. Right now, randomly, we have a >16% chance of killing a scumbag if we lynch a mason. I doubt this scum mason is Lowell on account of the claim. I know I'm not a scum mason, but that's useless information for the rest of you. But from my vantage point, of the 4 remaining mason, there's a really good chance of hitting scum with >25% likelihood.

Okay. So, six masons. However, these numbers are from her viewpoint. From everybody else's viewpoint, if we have scum masons there are either five or four town masons. (Three is way too unlikely, I think everybody will agree.) So, in the case of five or four town masons we have either 20% or 25% chance of finding a scum mason. With three four or five scum you have 18-31% percent chance of hitting any scum. 16% is if there are two scum, but two scum in a 16 player game? I'm sorry but there are probably two scum

factions

, not two scum. Her numbers just don't add up to something that makes sense to out herself and four other masons. To me it looks like she's beefing them up to make it look like we should lynch masons.

What is the point

of outing

every single

mason? It makes absolutely no sense.

Somebody please explain

to me how it's a good thing that we lynch masons. I would rather a mason scum survive a few days than a mason townie die. We have plenty of other tools to route the scum, we can use cop investigations or lynch other mafia and look for connections to mason members. If we are able to route the scum, every mason townie turns into a confirmed townie, which makes town's job

ridiculously

easy. If we kill our confirmable townies then we have shot ourselves in the collective feet for the endgame.

While I'm at it, I should point out that Serengeti decided I was scum at 193 but didn't vote me until 297, after I had three or four other votes on me. That vote and alvin's are the two I view as scummy bandwagoning.

PS @ Honcho: There is a paper icon at the top left of every post. Right click/Copy link location

PPS @ Yos: If she plays town flippantly, what does she play scum like?

[Vino]

Happy birthday.

[Vino]

Me too, if Vino flips scum, Yosarian is 100% Greyhound-driving scum.

And if he flips town?

His interest in the mason group (and who reveals who) exceeds any pro-town explanation.

It's probably about time I start defending myself. I believe I am at L-2. All masons but two were already out when I began questioning Serengeti. Moreover, the reason I gave at the time, which GnKoichi just agreed with (see below) is that since scum know or will soon know all of the masons, town may as well know too.

The other charge against me is that I somehow "knew" there was a mafia mason. To any of those who still think I gave something that town wouldn't know, let me recap history for you:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 38#1447938

i'm guessing based on the wording of your post that your role pm does not gaurantee the alignment of your partners?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 57#1447957

I also don't believe that everybody in the mason group Lowell speaks of is likely to be town given its claimed size.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 39#1448039

No, it doesn't. And, given the size of the group, having them all confirmed town would be way too much of an advantage.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 89#1449089

It's certain that at least one is scum. Minimum of one. Maybe even two.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 45#1449545

Uhh, Vino, you're still implying that you know who at least one of the scum in the mason group are.

(What he meant was, implying I know that there is at least one scum. I made no indication that I know exactly who it is.)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 93#1449593

I actually don't care who the masons are. Like I said it doesn't matter to me, half of them are scum anyways,

and the scum already know

or will know shortly

who they are

, so town might as well know too.

Remarkable insight into what scum knows.

(Compare with "I agree that it is not scummy to have revealed all the Masons" from GnKoichi)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 37#1449637

There is a difference between other people's posts, that have said that there's a pretty good chance there is a scum, and your posts, which seemed to imply you already knew there was a scum mason.

Conclusion: I used logic and built from the assertions of others and came to conclusions which, when not immediately obvious to others who didn't understand the logic, voted me as scum due to having new information and started a bandwagon.

The other issue was me saying "half of" the masons are scum, which would mean three, which makes no sense given I've never stated I think there are three scum masons, and I don't think it's likely, and I think the statements claiming I was being literal with the term are efforts to unfairly paint me as scum.

Prove me wrong or unvote me, and we can move on and talk about something else, like the real scum tells that other players have been giving off for days.

Vino lynch could very possibly confirm the presence of scum mason/s.

No it wouldn't. I'm not a mason, and moreover I'm not scum. I don't see how I've established any ties to any mason players, given I've criticized them all unilaterally.

[Vino]

roflcopter's mind is like a weather vane.
Serengeti's mind is like a wind tunnel.

It's a match made in heaven.

[Vino]

Somebody prove that #356 isn't WIFOM.

Calling everything WIFOM is a great scum tactic. Oh but even saying that calling WIFOM is especially useful to the scum, is WIFOM.

SC is climbing the ladder on my scumlist.

So essentially what you are saying is, "Anybody who attacks me is scummy." That's been your attitude since day one, anybody who criticizes you is automatically summy in your mind. You're probably going to call this post scummy for just pointing it out.

Yosarian2, you said you don't think she is scum because she acted like this before as town. I ask again, if she's like this when she's town, then what is she like when she is scum?

[Vino]

Gah. Too much posting. Guarantee an actual good post tomorrow.

(Two days ago)

[Vino]

Be careful. Now she's going to put you at the top of her scum list.

[Vino]

I'm of the general opinion that claiming mason puts burdens on scum that they don't want.

Would you expand on this please?

[Vino]

If we have a vig and one of those people get lynched, I want him or her to target the other.

Directing other players, not cool. Nobody's mentioned a vig so far.

Ugh. Right, you know what?

unvote; Vote roflcopter

Because I'm fed up of you leading the town into a massive circle-jerk about sk masons and how yos is very funny and quite frankly, if I had tits, you'd be getting on them. As it is, the only reason I'm not pulling my hair out is because the chemo will do a quicker job of getting it out. But only just. That's how fucking annoying you are.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha... ha. It must be the whole "across the pond" thing because I found this hilarious.

That's actually a valid question, and I'm not sure if I've played with her when she was scum before, although with all her alts it's hard to keep track. (Penguins, have I?)

Still, frustrating as she has been, nothing she's done this game is any different from how I've seen her act as town many, many times, so I'm not going to join that wagon.

I hate to state the obvious here, so I won't. However, if she's flippant and eccentric when she's town I see no reason she wouldn't be as scum too. Barring her alts, she has only ever played town that I was able to read.

[Vino]

Vino, you should probably claim. With a PM. You're at L-2, I think.

Um, no. Learn some math. I'm at L-3, and of the people who have not voted me there are not enough who haven't expressed support or defense of me to get me lynched. I'm in no danger of being lynched right now, and it's uncool of you to try to get me to claim.

That's why I said "if we have a vig". While whether directing one is a good idea is open to debate, I don't think it's scummy in and of itself to do so as long as the player directed to is selected for a good reason.

Inside knowledge of whether we have a vig nonwithstanding (obviously if you're not a vig there's no way you would know) it gives information which may damage the vig's identity in the future, if there is one. It also gives the mafia an idea of who to kill to look like a vig. I'm sure it also does lots of anti-town things I can't even think of, it's like a pandora's box of mafia.

People seem to be defending roflcopter and Serengeti based on meta. I don't disapprove of the meta, but I do disapprove of the logic. Previous games have no bearing on whether they are scum this game, and in this game they are corroborating and mirroring each other, and showing scummy behavior and so must be pressed. It's only fair. I have no problem with them acting flippant and nonchalant, but their apparently lies and self-contradictions are more than I can overlook.

I explained it already. The probability of all masons being town is close to zero. My first though when I saw that long mason list in my PM was 'which one is scum?' So the scum already knows.

So let the masons out themselves. They are capable of speaking. Isn't there a mason thread where you can decide these things among yourselves privately before betraying them?

Also, when I used this

same exact logic

you called me scummy for it. Why the double standard?

Also, why are you strawmanning some made up rule about masons not voting each other? That logic makes no sense and here's why: It is likely there may be third parties looking for masons, and voting each other is an acceptable strategy of throwing off their trails. SK's for example, or multiple mafia parties. If one of the masons dies and the town needs to figure out who are the remaining masons, they can ask the masons who are still alive, and discover lies through the usual methods of investigation or logic. With such a large mason group, masons can be verified simply by strength of numbers.

God I want to vote StrangerCoug right now. Who'd be willing to hit that wagon?

Now that I've finished reading. I'll amazingly agree with you.

Unvote,vote SC

Why?

[Vino]

Again I was inaccurate in my scumlist, I forgot orangepenguin:

SCUMLIST: Litral, Numberfourteen, Yosarian, Vino, orangepenguin and StrangerCoug.

Yes three of them are masons. orangepenguin may be the least scummy in the lot, the rest are pretty much equivalent but for different reasons. I'm willing to lynch any of these players.

What is your level of certainty of that scum list?

Vino: I'm just getting scum vibes from SC.

You'll have to verbalize your thoughts if anybody else is going to give them any credence. Would you please try?

[Vino]

Do you mean to say there are seven anti-town roles in this game? What would they be, in your opinion?

[Vino]

BTW, I'm still bothered with your hesitation to claim, because you were only at minus 3. Scum hates claiming, and you don't seem to be eager to.

unvote, vote: Vino

That's hilarious. Your vote was already on me, you took it off and put it on again.

I'm not claiming because I'm not in danger of being lynched, and for no other reason. It's not a scum or town thing to do. Saying "Scum hates claiming" is a misrepresentation of the reality that most roles, scum or town, dislike claiming.

At least you're open to the idea that you might be wrong with your scum list.

[Vino]

Saying "Scum hates claiming" is a misrepresentation of the reality that most roles, scum or town, dislike claiming.

My experience is very different, otherwise I wouldn't have expressed the opinion.

Nobody who doesn't want to claim is going to claim if they don't have to, Serengeti.

[Vino]

I'm not a fan of Lowell at the moment mainly because of his claim, but the problem with attacking Lowell is he doesn't come by enough to defend himself. I guess you could consider that scummy in itself, but it concerns me because I don't want to lynch someone who hasn't had a chance to speak for why they are innocent. I admit I will sometimes pick the wrong target and I welcome the opportunity to have my mind changed. It's not that I approve of lurking, but rather that I prefer an open discussion. Last game I played a townie lurcher got quicklynched simply because town couldn't find anybody better to lynch, and he couldn't defend himself. For these reasons I think pushing Serengeti (who is not holding up well under pressure) or roflcopter or to a lesser extent Yosarian2 or StrangerCoug are better choices, but later on in the game I would like to press Lowell as well.

I rarely do this, but I guess it will have to suffice for now:

FoS: Lowell

for an unprovoked claim and general lurking.

Also, the following statement is retarded:

There is no reason for a scum mason to out himself early Day 1

[Vino]

Even in the face of lynching, she is completely unremittant. I'd be inclined to believe you more if your response to the lynching weren't, "YOU'LL THANK ME WHEN I'M DEAD YOU

MORONS

!"

Anyway, chill out, including your own vote I am pretty sure you are at L-2, not L-1. It's 9 players to lynch. Even so I don't think there are two additional players who would be inclined to vote you at this point, but I think it's prudent anyway, to help us decide whether or not we want to go through with the lynch, to discuss what happens on either side of the lynch.

If Serengeti flips town, I would tend to look for players that she got along well with. Normally I would look for players that she got along poorly with in this circumstance, but if she was town and made this much of a ruckus, I think a likely scum behavior would be to encourage her. Under those lines, Lowell and roflcopter are where to look.

If Serengeti flips scum, I would look for players who lightly condemn or ignore her behavior. For all of the fuss she is making, I would think scum would try to stay away and bus. alvinz95 Litral and Empking look like good candidates, especially for their lurking.

I would like to hear other people's opinions.

[Vino]

Vino: Do you think her play is consistant with how you would expect a scum to act? If so, how and why?

Also, I'm a little disturbed by the apparent contradiction between you attacking Penguins because she was willing to lynch a mason, and you wanting to lynch Penguins, a mason. Could you explain that, please?

Both good points.

I see Serengeti's play consistent with scum play because of the shit-tons of self-contradictions. She got overconfident with my bandwagon and the way I see it stopped putting too much thought into the game, and started throwing out attacks that contradicted each other. Due to its overreaching nature, her flippancy reads to me like a gambit that she could stir up a hornet's nest without deviating too far from her previous play styles. (In other words I think she's overacting.) Of course, I've been wrong before, so I'm remaining open minded to the possibility that I'm wrong in this case.

Concerning the second point, it's been established for a while that there are probably scum masons, and likely in roughly the same ratio as normal scum. I believe it was you that I discussed with before about the possibility of confirming mason townies, and you said that this was not possible. I find I must disagree, the town has many tools available to them, and I believe we can do it, but if there are scum masons then at some point we are going to have to lynch (or vig) masons, and she is acting scummy enough that I am satisfied with lynching her.

The chances of getting a D1 lynch correct are naturally never very good, and it could be argued that it's better to lynch other players D1 and wait on masons for another day. We have plenty of time left before our deadline, and I can be convinced that we should have more discussion before we lynch anybody. If she gets another vote some time soon, I intend to remove mine to help prevent hammering until a general consensus is agreed upon.

Serengeti: I don't care for your meta, and I won't tell you mine.

[Vino]

This is not what I meant by allowing Serengeti to defend herself. Cydonia's pushes at a hammer are pretty scummy, and Serengeti's tantrum is not helping her case. What I really meant was to debate her on her record.

Outing the mason group was NOT a mistake after TWO freakin' masons were voting other masons, and screwing up the mason breadcrumb signals. The town had the right to know what the scum knew.

I'm really sorry babe but the rest of us just plain old disagree on this point, and since you seem safe for the moment, I'd like to get you using that powerful logic of yours and debating this point with me, as I think it is at the core of why you are on the gallows.

I personally disagree about the mason breadcrumb signals. I explained this in a previous post:

Also, why are you strawmanning some made up rule about masons not voting each other? That logic makes no sense and here's why: It is likely there may be third parties looking for masons, and voting each other is an acceptable strategy of throwing off their trails. SK's for example, or multiple mafia parties. If one of the masons dies and the town needs to figure out who are the remaining masons, they can ask the masons who are still alive, and discover lies through the usual methods of investigation or logic. With such a large mason group, masons can be verified simply by strength of numbers.

This is a game of everybody suspecting everybody else, and the same logic that gives mafia good reason to vote their scum buddies (to throw off suspicions) is the logic that gives masons good reason to vote their mason buddies. Tell why you think that isn't the case.

So even if we establish that pro-town masons should never vote their buddies, you still have to demonstrate that you had a good motive to out everybody. Lowell outing himself was suspicious but he had a reasonably pro-town cover. You outing other people is so scummy because those people should have been able to make the decision for themselves. What compounds the problem is that you gave absolutely no reason for it at the time, throwing out names like they meant nothing to you, only trying to logic yourself out of it after the fact.

If you can help clear up these two issues, it would help define whether you are a townie and we can make a clearer decision on whether or not to lynch you. If you continue the tantrum, I wouldn't blame me if you got lynched.

I don't want to lynch you if you are a townsperson, but your insistence on lynching yourself is not going to help, because it compels people to vote you whether or not you are scum. I wish you would calm down and give us something better to go on.

[Vino]

Unvote

This game is way too confusing.

[Vino]

Maybe KoC has a posting limitation where if he gets five votes he can only post poetry.

Maybe there are

three jesters.

Seriously though, I have no fucking clue what to make of this game now. Good job guys.

[Vino]

I can't imagine that it is productive for town to conjecture about post restrictions, I regret mentioning that now. That said, at this point I'd be surprised if there isn't some kind of oddity in the setup. I think I am going to re-read the thread and see if I can come up with anything new.

[Vino]

:eyebrow: So, you don't think the votes on KoS are a "real scum hunt"? Could you clarify?

Knight of Serengeti?

[Vino]

Fffffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuu...

I cannot believe what I am reading. What the fuck. Posts like this one and this one are freaking me out. While they still follow the same (dumb) strategy of attacking people who have attacked her and forgiving people who are no longer attacking her, they are actually reasonable and well thought out posts with fewer self-contradictions and spelling errors. She even used a bunch of SAT words like "meted" and "nascent." In isolation they give me a "sloppy town" reading instead of a "flippant scum" reading from before.

(Lawl I'm just joking about the SAT words and spelling errors. Obviously they don't factor into scumminess. Anyways...)

This is a completely different Serengeti than was here two days ago. I've still got my reservations, though, there's no way she can clear her previous actions by turning around now.

Serengeti, I am also getting the sense that you are being evasive, and it has nothing to do with how much you post, it has to do with the content of your posts. Proof is that I requested you engage me on a few simple questions a short time ago, and you completely ignored me. If you are town you ignored me because you think I am scummy and not worth talking to, but this frame of thinking is wrong, because it's more important to engage people's ideas, even if you do it on your own terms, than it is to ignore them and goodness knows you

just may

be wrong about your scum picks. If you are scum you ignored me because you had another strategy. Either way, ignoring all of the direct questions and posting your own content instead is hurting town.

[Vino]

2. I tend to think that both Penguins and rolf, while being sometimes illogical and even frustrating, have still both been more pro-town, more actually involved in hunting scum, then Koc has been. Do you agree or disagree?

In a "bull in a china cabinet" sort of way, sure.

[Vino]

Serengeti, I am also getting the sense that you are being evasive, and it has nothing to do with how much you post, it has to do with the content of your posts. Proof is that I requested you engage me on a few simple questions a short time ago, and you completely ignored me. If you are town you ignored me because you think I am scummy and not worth talking to, but this frame of thinking is wrong, because it's more important to engage people's ideas, even if you do it on your own terms, than it is to ignore them and goodness knows you

just may

be wrong about your scum picks. If you are scum you ignored me because you had another strategy. Either way, ignoring all of the direct questions and posting your own content instead is hurting town.

Look, I might have missed something. I read that post and it's just yet another argument about mason voting each other, which I have explained ad nauseum. Repeat your questions in point form please, I have to go drive my son to his grandma's and I don't have time to read your long post to find the questions that are worth answering.

I resent having to repeat myself because you are too busy/lazy to read, and the issue covered in those questions has already been moved past, so I will not present the questions in a more concise format. The point is that you should acknowledge and respond to other people's inquiries whether or not you think that person is scum.

Also: How many penguins do we need? Shit.

[Vino]

Puzzling is ScumCougar and GnKoichi's hesitation on hopping on the KoC wagon.

Prove that us hesitating to vote Knight of Cydonia when we think someone is scummier than him is scummy.

This is not a reasonable request. It is not something that I can prove. Only your deaths, and the revelation of your alignments, can prove or disprove my SUSPICION.

I said scummy, not scum. Now comply. Use other games if you have to (just make sure they're finished).

This is unreasonable. I don't agree with her case, but obviously it's only an opinion and she can't prove it. The weight put on it by this statement does not equal its importance in the large scheme of things. Your strategy here is to make her look when she can't prove it, which is a pretty scummy strategy. How about you prove the opposite, that not hesitating to vote KoC when he proves scummier is pro-town? Obviously impossible.

[Vino]

I know it doesn't help town at all, but I can't shake the feeling that Cydonia's poetry has some kind of hidden meaning. I've looked for simple patterns but I don't see anything.

[Vino]

Welcome to the game BSG, I hope you did well with that French horn, quite an elegant instrument.

I would love to get in on this discussion but it is moving very fast,

has nothing to do with me

, and seems to be between a group of people who have known each other for a while, so I have very little to contribute. Also this is my first large game and I've never played with so many people, so I'm having trouble sorting out who is who.

I'm speechless...

I don't see the problem? It had nothing to do with me in that other people were talking about other people, and I didn't really have any opinion on an issue that was in my opinion a non-issue. People made way too big of a deal about a misunderstanding that I didn't even fully understand.

Post 187

How are you attacking him, Vino?

It was just a general criticizing of behavior. But see below:

Wait, wait wait. Did Vino use the 'too scummy to be scum' argument in post 202? Because when I read this, I get that impression:

It was jestery in my opinion only because it was sloppy for scum play.

Still not convinced he is one,

but I prefer it to scum

.

And why is that?

I stopped caring about Jesters a long time ago. Let them win, they are anti-town, so better to get them out of the way.

Concerning anything that was posted before Serengeti's bandwagon, please refer to this post for my defense.

Also, why are all those poems (which are nice) posted?

Nobody knows. Cydonia started it after a bandwagon started up on him.

THe penguin and lynx with their ears tight shut,
come up with foul riddles barely better than smut,
and while the reader in his grey robe sees red
all kinds of mystery floats over their head.

This is definitely talking about Serengeti and StrangerCoug, and I can't find any source for it on the internet so he must have written it. #700 is even more obvious.

A Knight without a Muse, loaded up on rum
Maybe Jester, maybe traitor, understood by none
The fans are in the bandstands, the jeers heard by some
Will turn around to bite him on the day he flips to scum

[Vino]

@Vino, how did you get to 7 anti-town roles in post 465?

She put seven people on her scum list.

Vino (I'll come back to you at the end of my read), the quoted poem of KoC is about Rofl and PotS.

It is about a lynx, which to me says StrangerCoug, not roflcopter, who has a bunny in his avatar. But if you want to cast the lynx as roflcopter anyway I don't disagree that it would be fitting.

This puts Cydonia's poetry squarely in the satirical category, but the more he continues to post it the more I consider the possibility that he may be under a post restriction rule.

[Vino]

Also, is there a reason you didn't censor the link to the QT, #14?

[Vino]

So wait. We are allowed to post PM's. Doesn't this mean that #14 was just confirmed as a townie if the other mason players have one that matches? Surely the mafia masons will have a slightly different one, and if #14 had it, he wouldn't have access to the town one, specifically the "Alignment" line that he was able to reproduce perfectly.

Doesn't this also mean that we are able to confirm one vanilla townie using the same method? I think it may be prudent to discuss who should be the one to post their PM.

[Vino]

No. The wording is different.

Alignment: Neutral--You win if Natirasha is lynched.

versus

Alignment: Town--You win when all non-neutral factions besides the town are dead.

14's matches mine exactly, so he's a confirmed townie to me now, because if he were scum the wording would have been different.

We can confirm a townie with the Flavor: line.

Shit no we can't Natirasha quoted it in the first post. Shitfuck I see what you are saying now. Shitfuck. Nevermind about the whole thing.

[Vino]

Upon further thought, if #14's general format matches another mason's then we may be able to confirm him as a pro-town mason. Consider the event where #14 is really a scum and the

real

townie PM looks like this:

Name: Straight G
Flavor: Your a

bombatastic

pimp.
Alignment: Town--You win when all non-neutral factions besides the town are dead.
Role: Mason
Passive Abilities
The Shady Lady: Each night, you may speak to the other people who go to The Shady Lady Gentlemen's Club at this quicktopic(http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/9bnWjUfcej5). The people who attend this fine establishment are orangepenguin, Yosarian2, GnKoichi, Lowell, Penguins of the Sarengeti, Numberfourteen.

If we can find slight differences, we can establish he's scum. If the flavor and general format from the other mason posts, which weren't in the mod's first post, match #14 then he is confirmed town.

All we need is a majority of the masons to post their agreement that #14's matches and we have confirmed a townie.

[Vino]

Interesting. #14 seems to have selected the text of the PM and copied that, while you hit the quote button and copied the source text. The result is that the bold of "The Shady Lady" was preserved in your copy while it was lost in his. I'm not sure it means anything though, since the "Shady Lady" text would have been present in your PM whether or not it was a scum or town PM.

Regardless, I don't see any logic that says that this doesn't confirm #14.

[Vino]

Serengeti confirms as well. This means we either have #14 yosarian and Serengeti on the same scum team (unlikely!), or #14 is a confirmed townie.

I wish we had realized this before and been able to confirm someone who wasn't already a townie in my opinion.

[Vino]

Actually, you're still at 3 votes. StrangerCoug voted you.

Also, bull. Why would you vote yourself and then immediately quoting "This Vicious Cabaret" instead of writing your own rhymes like just recently? The PM looks believable due to the vanilla ice reference, but not very strong evidence and it's that's the only thing keeping me from believing you entirely. Your behavior is not consistent with this claim.

[Vino]

I'm almost certain that one of Numberfourteen or Yosarian2 has to be scum since their quoted mason PM's differ.

Other than the bold, I don't see any difference, and the reason for the difference of bold I explained in a previous post. Do you see something I don't?

I read it as well, a good read, but only reaffirmed things I already knew about scumhunting. I would love to eventually play with this Glork fellow. Regardless, there are more ways of scumhunting than the ones that he outlined, and I think it is important enough for townies to remain transparent that I always give my reasons for things and fault people if they do not share their reasoning

when prompted

.

[Vino]

Our flavor is slightly different, with me being "gansterlicious" and him being "bombastic", and with slightly different parts being bolded. I wouldn't assume that necessarally means anything, though, especally since Nat probably designed this game in such a way that quoting role PM's would not break the game, since he put that fairly unusual rule in his ruleset.

Also note, Penguins mentioned her role PM is also "gansterlicious" and has the same bolded parts.

You are mistaken. I am the one who substituted a bold "bombatastic" with "gangsterlicious" to demonstrate a point. Go back and re-read that post, and #14's original PM post. Also re-read the part where I explain why his is not bold and yours is. Your flavor and his are the same.

[Vino]

Nothing is happening.

[Vino]

PoS: Scum
Me: Not Scum
Litral: Possible scum
KoC: Probably not scum.

"Yet, you seem to be completely unable to give quotes to back up your claims."

[Vino]

The patrons, and the actors too,
Are uncertain if the show is through,
And with sidelong looks await their cue,
But the frozen mask just smiles.

This was actually the first post that I suspected a hidden meaning when I read it, but I said nothing because the evidence was not substantive enough, and the prose was similar to the previous poems with no obvious change in style, so I figured it was sourced from elsewhere like the others.

There's a policeman with an honest soul
Who has seen the head upon the pole
And he grunts and fills his beggar's bowl
With a feeling of great unease.

Obvious policeman reference is obvious. Still, not enough evidence, prose is similar, and I wasn't able to make any sense of the last two lines.

Ah! At last, the 2009 show!
The ballet upon the burning stage!
Poems upon a cRumpled page!
The documentary seen on fractured screen.

I saw the capital R and took it as a clue to a hidden message. Taking all capital letters gives AATPRT -- means nothing. If you wanted to be clearer about your message, I would have made the irrelevant letters lowercase. As it stood I couldn't find a pattern -- goodness knows I couldn't have known you were trying to spell out an acronym.

The dagger's point is often veiled,
the bloodshed it's whetted steel entailed,
until, in form of lowly moth,
the drunkard finds a way through bloody cloth.

Vino = Wino = Drunkard.
Vino seemed to be the only person to think this might have been a PR. Well done you, you "got the point".

Holy crap dude.

Seriously you should have just come out and said it in the first place instead of leading us around in circles. I'll buy your story for as long as you continue to be as reasonable as you've been since you stopped the poetry. Start pulling any anti-town crap again and I don't care what you were wearing that day, I'll vote you on it.

Serengeti, BSG has made some good informative posts and I generally like the content, but I think it remains to be seen whether his motivations are scum or town. Simply commenting about the game as he reads it does not make a person "blindingly town."

[Vino]

dear vino, stop trying to undermine penguins' (or anybody else's) town reads.

Yes, discrediting town reads is uber scummy. Because the last thing scum wants, is a whole big batch of townies that most people agree are townies. Remember how they only have one bullet per night. Also, it narrows the field down during the day, increasing the likelihood that they will be lynched. They especially loathe this. A good idea for the scum is to sow doubt about this. Like Vino is doing.

I agree, we need to get a big batch of townies to help us in our scum-finding process. However, we do not need to select the wrong people and have scum in our townies. I don't feel that BSG has enough of a track record to make him "blindingly town" -- he could have done all of that stuff he did whether or not he was town. I agree that BSG has made a lot of pro-town statements, but I disagree that it makes him so undeniably town as you are implying, I want to see him interact more with other players before I make that call.

[Vino]

I'd have to go back and read Litral again before I decide whether or not to vote him.

[Vino]

Litral has done some moderately scummy things, and I think a bandwagon on him would be productive so I look forward to seeing how it turns out.

For the time being though, I'm actually going to put my

Vote: alvinz95

because I feel he hasn't contributed. He lurks, offers no original opinions, bandwagoned me, and every so often drops meta/unreasonable defenses of roflcopter.

PS: The rules say no image posting. It's modkillable. FYI. Enjoy your death. If you still want a re-read analysis, I'd be happy to give it.

[Vino]

Haha well damn. Accusing me of fishing for a modkill when I was just reminding you of the rules? No class. If it was an honest mistake, I'm sure he'll let you off.

[Vino]

I just realized that PoS is in no way cleared by the PM discussion. I reread that whole section, and realized that all the info PoS gave had already been confirmed by both #14 and Yos, so everything she said could have been a lie to tie herself into the two suddenly town masons.

The chances that you would think of something like this to fake is small in my opinion. You get plus townie points.

Yos, chill out dude, I was being facetious, the mod is not going to kill you for what was obviously an accident. Look at the very next thing I said after "Enjoy your death." It was an invitation to more conversation. Are you going to take me up on it or not?

[Vino]

For the time being though, I'm actually going to put my

Vote: alvinz95

because I feel he hasn't contributed. He lurks, offers no original opinions, bandwagoned me, and every so often drops meta/unreasonable defenses of roflcopter.

Why him? You really think that's a productive vote given what the rest of us think?

What

do

"the rest of us" think?

I'd love to know what you think about alvinz95.

Also:

You're going to have to explain to everyone how having a contrarian view on who I feel is townie means that I'm scum.

Quite an ironic statement given you call everybody who has views contrary to yours scummy.

[Vino]

For the time being though, I'm actually going to put my Vote: alvinz95 because I feel he hasn't contributed. He lurks, offers no original opinions, bandwagoned me, and every so often drops meta/unreasonable defenses of roflcopter.

I'm sorry for my inactivity, but I wouldn't say I'm "lurking" as lurking is being active in other places except a certain game, which I'm not. I'll work to get more of my original opinions in. I've played with roflcopter in multiple games and I know how he plays. In the beginning, it was mostly jokes, and I threw down one more defense to GnKoichi/KoC so they wouldn't waste a lynch my using Appeal to Emotion.

I like the response, but I dislike the timing. Maybe it's just bad luck, but coming out immediately after I vote you is kinda suspicious. I'll keep the vote for now, but I like how there's no counter-attack and that there's plenty of original thoughts about other players in the same post. I hope you are more active in the future.

[Vino]

SO! If anyone (#14, Yos, PoS, Lowell, OP) can tell me the difference between the real PM and the PM Yos posted (quoted below for reference) I think we may have something.

Go Go Gambit Activate!

Yos, and PoS claim they have PMs that match #14's exactly. Lowell and OP have given no information about their PMs. I am inclined to think that either the mod made a mistake in GnKoichi's individual PM, or GnKoichi wants another anti-town mason to "confirm" that the other PMS are phony. If anybody confirmed GnKoichi's PM variation right now, barring any unforeseen variations to this scenario we would confirm a scum in my opinion, and I would immediately vote and lynch their ass into eternity.

[Vino]

The problem with that trap is that if someone had fallen for it, (and I doubt OP or Lowell would have,) the rest of the town would have no way to distinguish the trap-setter from a bussing scum. Moreover, we would then have to lynch one or two masons, which is something that we've already established as a general consensus during the Serengeti bandwagon that we do not want to do on D1.

Speaking of which, GnKoichi is a mason, and we don't want to lynch a mason D1, so while I support us continuing this general line of questioning of him for the sake of posterity, I do not support a vote of him at this point.

[Vino]

Sad to see you go, Coug.

[Vino]

It'd help if Litral was around to defend himself.

My work consumes me. Posting frequency may drop.

[Vino]

I'm not going to hop on a bandwagon just because you started it.

[Vino]

Three days? Holy crap, I thought the deadline was on the 17th.

blah blah vote count

To Lynch: 9
Deadline: February 18

17th, 18th, watev, apparently the date has been shifting forward one day in the future for a while. Either way, we have 15 days.

[Vino]

replacing in.

reading up.

Who are you replacing? If you're replacing SC, then cool, I'd like to hear what you have to say. If you're replacing literl, you should know that you're the #1 bandwagon a few days before deadline and you might want to consider claiming.

Anyway, let's please lynch someone before deadline. Right now, I think Literl has 4 votes on him, and I think Empking has 3. There are also several people not voting; everyone needs to bandwagon up ASAP, I'd be fine with either bandwagon at the moment just so long as we lynch someone; if we spend this long on day 1 and totally fail to lynch at all it would be teh suck.

I

just said

that we have 15 days until the deadline. Two solid weeks is plenty of time. This post looks very scummy for trying to solicit a claim from someone who has very few votes, and for trying to rush a bandwagon.

Honcho, I thought my reasons for balking at the GnKoichi gambit were made clear at the time. If you have more concerns, quote them and be more specific.

Also please be more active. I <3 you too much to have you replaced in this game.

[Vino]

This post looks very scummy for trying to solicit a claim from someone who has very few votes, and for trying to rush a bandwagon.

This is lame, though. Trying to rush a bandwagon? Dude, do you realize how long it's been since we first started trying to bandwagon Literl? Remember, back when you said that he looked incredibly scummy but didn't want to lynch him because you thought he might be a jester? We could have lynched Literl 10 days ago without it being a "rushed bandwagon".

s/rush/push/ sorry. This is what I have a problem with right here: "everyone needs to bandwagon up ASAP, I'd be fine with either bandwagon at the moment just so long as we lynch someone." The excuse of "the deadline cometh" is arguable, but the post rubs on me as if it has the wrong motivation.

PS I don't care if he's a jester.

Honcho, if it was a scum gambit, I didn't think his scum partner would take up the offer of outing the both of them. If it was a town gambit, I didn't think any scum would be dumb enough to take the bait. If there's two scum then the chances that both will take the bait is slim, and then the one who did would get lynched. If both happen to take it then both scum are reasonably confirmed to GnKoichi, and highly suspicious to everybody else. In the end, no matter how it swings, we end up lynching a mason, which we don't want to do.

[Vino]

First of all, it wasn't "so long as we lynch someone". It was "so long as we lynch Literl or Empking".

No.

everyone needs to bandwagon up ASAP, I'd be fine with either bandwagon at the moment just so long as we lynch someone

Your words exactly. Post 902.

But I don't think this should be the focus of conversation so let's drop it.

I am still waiting to hear from people like empking and Litral (replaced with ThAdmiral I believe) before I place my vote.

[Vino]

One interesting thing about Mafia is that any scum finding techniques are subject to statistical arbitrage. That is, the more people know about a scum-finding technique, the less effective it becomes, as the scum are more likely to mislead town by accusing townies of it, and less likely to actually perform it themselves.

[Vino]

Vino, that's exactly what you did with my PM Gambit! You just admitted to acting exactly how you think scum would act surrounding a scum hunt.

What?

I was talking about this:

Actually, several people wrote that it was actually 15 days to deadline long before you made that post, rofl. I already think you're a bit scummy, now I can add Lynch all Liars to that.

Accusing someone else of lying so that he can use Lynch all Liars.

I don't understand your accusation.

PS Serengeti: bussing is no exception. Since scum know it is used as a scum-finding technique, they can accuse townies of it, which weakens its usability against the scum in aggregate.

[Vino]

Vino said that the more people who are aware of a scum hunting technique, the less effective it is. If he was aware of this, why would he disarm my scum hunting attempt surrounding the PM? Town might have done this by mistake, talking about the gambit in a way that inadvertently disarms it. Except Vino has proven that he thinks of the game in a way where he must have been aware that his actions were going to make people aware of the situation, and thus make it less effective. Only scum would do this knowingly.

Totally

different thing.

I disarmed the gambit because it logically didn't make sense, because it focuses on masons which we don't want to lynch, and because I didn't think anybody would bite anyways. Me disarming the gambit doesn't fall under the "scumhunting suffers statistical arbitrage" category. Statistical arbitrage is a macro concept that occurs with a huge number of people, like say, everybody on this forum, and the disarm was a micro situation that happened between less than eight people. Please go take some economic courses.

Example, if someone were to say, "Gambits are a common scum tactic," then everybody would start looking for gambits, so scum wouldn't make any more gambits and would start accusing town of making gambits, which eliminates the efficacy of searching for gambits to find scum. That is completely different from saying, "Koichi is doing a gambit," and then laying the internals of that gambit on the table for everybody to see. If you want to argue that my disarming your gambit was anti-town, then I would love to debate on the reasons why, but arguing that it is because of statistical arbitrage won't work.

Serengeti, he's saying that I'm contradicting myself by pointing out statistical arbitrage in scum hunting techniques while also making everybody aware of his gambit. What he doesn't understand is the concept of statistical arbitrage.

Honcho, point something out for me to explain. I outlined every possible scenario of the gambit and why they were all unlikely. Koichi's gambit comes down to either the moderator making a silly mistake in (likely) only his PM, or him intentionally making up this mistake to try to catch some scum or frame some masons. Do you not follow the logic or do you think that it's faulty?

[Vino]

I'm sorry, I didn't mean that as an insult. Sometimes I get frustrated when people don't follow my logic. I don't want to play a negative game and I hope nobody is taking any of this personally.

You're right, I did understand that announcing the mechanics of your gambit would disarm it. That's why I did it. Not an example of statistical arbitrage, though. Let's talk about why I disarmed your gambit.

a) Nobody was going to fall for it. It was quite an obvious bait. You may differ on this opinion, but for reasons I already laid out, the gambit looked unattractive no matter what the scenarios were.

b) We don't want to lynch masons day 1. A number of people have said it, and persuaded me of it after the Serengeti bandwagon. It's better to preserve our masons until we can confirm them as townies than to risk mistakenly killing a townly one.

c) Another reason I forget. It must have been unimportant or I would have remembered it.

I don't think your gambit is a scum tell, Koichi. It was an equally viable thing to do as scum or as town. I called it out, as I have every right to do, because I disagreed with its direction and didn't want to see its results come to pass.

* Technically, statistical arbitrage is actually a method of using the knowledge that everybody has common knowledge of the stock market to predict what everybody else is going to do, and thus predict the stock market. However, I'm using it in a different sense in this situation, to describe the effect that when everybody is aware of a scum hunting technique, its value changes.

- Vino said only bad people hate cake.

No. When I pointed out statistical arbitrage, I was illustrating that common scumhunting techniques lose their efficacy, not that making information more prevalent has a negative effect on the town. I was pointing out that Cydonia's "Lynch all Liars" accusation was not effective because all the scum know about it. I was

not

trying to say that dispersing information about scum hunts to the town is a bad thing. That's such a general statement that it can't be applied to every situation. Some scum hunts may be more useful as public information, some scum hunts may be more useful as private information.

[Vino]

Eh. Watev. Everybody knows what your point is.

From your point of view if you are town it hurts town for me to disarm your gambit because you think you are town. From my point of view, you may be scum, and I can't ascertain your motives. Since the prospective payoff of the gambit did not measure up to the risk that you are a scum trying to lynch a mason, I disarmed it. If you find you disagree then I would suggest you make your gambits more compelling and less disarmable in the future.

[Vino]

A. catching people for doing actions that just benifit scum more then town; or, to put it another way, look for stuff that scum would love to do if they thought they could get away with it; or B. rely on psychology and instintive reactions that point to natural inherent differences between scum and town, that can be spotted even if the person is trying to hide them.

Now here's some good scum hunting. Eventually, scum are going to have to do truly scummy things, not just silly scum tells that any town could make, and when they do I'll be watching.

And LAL is perfectly valid if the accused is (as roflcopter was trying to do) lying to brush off a perfectly valid accusation. So why did you do that, Vino?

Do what? Brush off a valid accusation, or accuse someone of lying? I didn't do either? Or are you talking about something else?

[Vino]

Cops?

[Vino]

And vino makes as big a slip as I've seen.

I have to admit that the suspense is killing me.

He's talking about that time I was interpreted to have implied that I knew how many scum masons there were, when I was actually referring to things that everybody else had said four times already. He's just catching up so give him some slack. Admiral, read this.

That said, I'm particularly astonished at Admiral's post, it is decidedly pro-town. The duality of Litral's behavior versus Admiral's is perplexing.

Honcho, I don't know, my point is, there's ways of clearing out scum masons. Even if (in the crude scenario) a vig or sk or opposing scum faction should kill two scum masons then we can be reasonably sure that the remaining masons are town.

[Vino]

It's a weak case, that's why she's not commenting on it.

I'm beginning to become wary of the deadline due to this group's inability to come to any coherent consensus on anything. Today is the 8th, deadline is the 18th, and we're no closer now than we were ten days ago.

Mod, last vote count was in January, again please.

Unvote, Vote: Empking and his Alts

for lack of content.

[Vino]

Thanks for all your thoughts, Admiral.

Around this time vino refuses to claim. I am ok with that since he was only at -3, but he states that he was in no danger of a lynch, and seems just a little too comfortable where he is. I find this odd since there was a lot of talk about a vino lynch just a couple of pages before.

It's an issue of numbers. Of the people who hadn't voted, there weren't three people who had expressed negative opinions of me. There simply weren't enough available votes to put my neck in a noose.

by the way @ vino: I know that people were talking about the possibility of scum in the masons, or even saying they were sure there were scum in the masons, but your statement implied

knowledge

that there was scum in the mason group. In my opinion it's a pretty strong slip.

You can interpret it as a slip if you want, but I was really only expressing what everybody else had already expressed.

vino is protective of his meta. Why? (that question at vino)

I think maybe you saw this line:

Serengeti: I don't care for your meta, and I won't tell you mine.

My policy on meta is that I don't ever give any weight when other people post their meta, ie "look what I did this last game when I was town" I will ignore, because I think it has zero bearing on what they are doing this game. It's so ridiculously easy for a person to mimic as scum what they did as town in previous games. It's a random game and just because they acted a certain way as town last game doesn't mean they're still town this game. Likewise I never give people my meta, I don't think it is very convincing, I like to give stronger reasons for my townliness. I may ask people for meta if I think it is pertinent and would prove useful, but that instance is rare. If you ask me for my meta I may give it to you if I feel like it, I wouldn't say I'm protective of it.

PS: Serengeti is female.

[Vino]

Man Cydonia the mod must really love you, he prodded Empking at a moment's notice for you and completely ignored my vote count request

[Vino]

Thanks armlx.

List of people not voting:

Head_Honcho, Cydonia, roflcopter, BSG, StrangerCoug, ThAdmiral, alvinz95

Deadline is apparently "February" and I am not willing to risk a D1 non-lynch, so I urge the people on this list to consider their options and make a decision.

[Vino]

Speaking of BSG, he's made no posts since he finished his review. This frustrates me -- so many people lurking or absent, I'm getting worried that this game will get stale.

[Vino]

Five days to deadline. This is starting to look like a no lynch, nobody has more than four votes, and posting frequency is rather low, with lots of lurkers.

[Vino]

I hope the town isn't that dumb

I try not to make mistakes involving me assuming that other people are smart. I don't mean to insult everybody's intelligence, but people in large groups tend to act stupidly, and this is my first game this large, and I perceive it to be moving slow enough that it is in significant danger of stalling before the deadline.

In my opinion Empking is the better lynch, but since ThAdmiral is being the squeakier wheel it looks as though he is getting the most momentum. I'll switch if we get closer and still no lynch.

Unofficial vote count

Penguins of the Serengeti(1): Empking's Alt
Empking's Alt(3): OrangePenguin, Yosarian2, Vino
roflcopter(2): ThAdmiral, GnKoichi
StrangerCoug(1): MafiaSSK
ThAdmiral(5): roflcopter, Lowell, Numberfourteen, Knight of Cydonia, Penguins of the Serengeti
To Lynch: 9
Deadline: February 18

Not voting: roflcopter, Honcho, BSG, StrangerCoug, alvinz95

[Vino]

Oops, my bad.

Not voting: Honcho, BSG, StrangerCoug, alvinz95

I'll be posting these semi-regularly. Not trying to take over the role of mod, it's mostly for myself because I like to know what the vote count is especially getting this close to deadline.

[Vino]

Wow! I'll call that momentum.

I'm not voting Koichi. He's a mason. I do agree however that he is fairly scummy.

Unofficial vote count

Penguins of the Serengeti(1): Empking's Alt
GnKoichi(4): Honcho, roflcopter, Penguins of the Serengeti, OrangePenguin, Yosarian2
Empking's Alt(1): Vino
roflcopter(2): ThAdmiral, GnKoichi
StrangerCoug(1): MafiaSSK
ThAdmiral(3): Lowell, Numberfourteen, Knight of Cydonia
To Lynch: 9
Deadline: February 18

Not voting: roflcopter, BSG, StrangerCoug, alvinz95

[Vino]

Kochi is at L-3, you counted Serengeti twice.

[Vino]

Shit mea culpa. Let's try again.

Unofficial vote count

GnKoichi (6): Yosarian2, OrangePenguin, roflcopter, Penguins of the Serengeti, GnKoichi, Numberfourteen
Penguins of the Serengeti(1): Empking's Alt
Empking's Alt(1): Vino
StrangerCoug(1): MafiaSSK
ThAdmiral(2): Lowell, Knight of Cydonia
To Lynch: 9
Deadline: February 18

Not voting: Honcho, BSG, StrangerCoug, alvinz95, ThAdmiral



L-3. Three days left. I like my vote where it is but I'll switch for a lynch if it gets close.

[Vino]

And the votes are flying. Two days left.

Unofficial vote count

GnKoichi(4): Yosarian2, OrangePenguin, roflcopter, Honcho
Penguins of the Serengeti(1): Empking's Alt
Empking's Alt(1): Vino
StrangerCoug(1): MafiaSSK
ThAdmiral(5): Lowell, Knight of Cydonia, Penguins of the Serengeti, Numberfourteen, GnKoichi
Vino(1): ThAdmiral
To Lynch: 9
Deadline: February 18

Not voting: BSG, StrangerCoug, alvinz95

[Vino]

Oops, Empking ninja'd one in.

Unofficial vote count

GnKoichi(4): Yosarian2, OrangePenguin, roflcopter, Honcho
Empking's Alt(1): Vino
StrangerCoug(1): MafiaSSK
ThAdmiral(6): Lowell, Knight of Cydonia, Penguins of the Serengeti, Numberfourteen, GnKoichi, Empking's Alt
Vino(1): ThAdmiral
To Lynch: 9
Deadline: February 18

Not voting: BSG, StrangerCoug, alvinz95

[Vino]

Hahaha DGB got into the vote.

[Vino]

Also, I think it's about time to claim, Admiral. I think it's safe to say that all things being the same you are going to get lynched, and if we wait until you are L-1 and you claim a power role which the town accepts we may not have enough time switch all of the votes before the 18th.

[Vino]

He's not a doc. He doesn't save the person he glues, he only saves himself. If the person he glues gets killed he gets killed too. It could just as easily be a scum role that he recast as town. In fact, I think that's more likely given the behavior of the mechanic. If it is a town role, it's not a very strong one, so I'm okay with seeing him lynched, especially because it's too late to switch. My vote makes L-1 and enables hammer so I'll wait to see other opinions before I vote.

[Vino]

Hiders usually die if they target a mafia member. It seems that this one will not, or at least it doesn't say in his description that he will.

[Vino]

Multiple scum groups.

This.

The absence of the "mafia + hide = death" clause makes it more likely. It would encourage the mafia to hide with townies that he doesn't think will get killed, in order to keep himself from getting vigged, or sk'd, or killed by another mafia group.

Even so, if it's town, it's a rather weak town role that I am willing to risk going without if it means we won't have to go no lynch today.

[Vino]

...

That makes no sense. If we try to vig you tonight, your role will protect you.

That's why he's saying to do it. He's arguing that it would confirm him.

Problems with this argument:

* It would not confirm him as a townie. Mafia hider is possible.
* If he is killed, we must deal with whether his target was killed or he was lying.
* If he is not killed, we must deal with whether it was a hider-blocked kill or a doc protect or a non-kill.

Eh... let's just lynch him now. He's L-2, we don't have time to switch to another target.

[Vino]

I am operating under the assumption that I have another day before I have to cast my vote.

[Vino]

I think we've all come to an agreement.

Unvote. Vote: ThAdmiral

I'm glad we finally got it together and avoided a no lynch. I'm also glad we did not lynch a mason. I'm also glad BSG decided to come back and contribute.

Sorry you didn't last too long in this game, Admiral.

[Vino]

PS: Yo Dawg I herd you like lynching so I put a vote on yo lynch so you can lynch while you vote.

[Vino]

My analysis of the night actions and their impact on the interpretation of D1 events:

If the mod was handing out role pms then I can no longer consider #14 a confirmed townie mason.

---

Cydonia is a bit of a paradox. The PM he posted had nothing to do with being in the cult. If he was a recruit, then does that mean he was recruited by the cult and then killed in the same night, or does that mean that he was already a cult member and he is now dead, perhaps due to targeting a mafia? Does this mean Natirasha gave him a fake PM? Someone educate me on how cults work. Two possibilities:

KoC was a town D1, was recruited last night, and then killed by mafia/sk/watev in the same night. Cult still has exactly as many players active as they did yesterday, probably 1.

KoC was a cultist D1, and made up the poetry shit, and was given a fake PM by Natirasha. Cult was able to recruit another member last night, but still stands at having as many players active as yesterday (at least 2.)

---

RIP BSG.

---

Let's look at Litral/ThAdmiral to see if we can gain info from the dead body voting records. I don't have time for a full analysis so I'm just going to skim and look for votes. First he tries to bandwagon Empking. This could be interpreted as a vote to throw off voting records, so I won't take it as a clearance of Empking. I've seen way too many scum vote their partners early in the game.

Litral prods #14 in 148, seems benign.

Litral votes me for the jester stuff in 199.

Admiral votes KOC in 984 who is a known cultist. Since Admiral wouldn't have known that he was a cultist, but he would have known that he was not mafia.

He then votes rofl in 1021, but then unvotes him later for what looks reasonable to me. Then me in 1081. So, the full list of votes:

Empking, #14, Vino, KOC, roflcopter, Vino.

Unfortunately I'm not able to glean any useful information from his voting record, maybe someone else can try. Curiously, Admiral's bah post was deleted. It piques my interest, although I didn't catch what was posted in it.

---

Concerning StrangerCoug, I see that only some of the time he voted for someone who had only just posted. Sometimes it was two posts back, and sometimes it was someone who hadn't posted at all. Alarmist is townie though so I won't read too much into his actions.

---

Time to look at the final vote count yesterday:

Lowell,

KoC

, GnKoichi, Numberfourteen, Empking's Alt, roflcopter, Penguins of the Serengeti,

BSG

, Vino

Since Admiral was a RB I don't think scum partners would be as inclined to bus a power role, so I think everybody on this list gets points for not being on the mafia's team. However, since we have a cult and therefore a cult leader, I am in the opinion that one of these people is probably the cult leader. Also since such a large game has such a high probability of having two mafia groups, having mafia from the alternate faction is a high possibility.

---

Some possibilities for NK combinations. Out of vigs, sk's and mafia factions we can have up to four night kills possible. We have either:

Vig, SK, Mafia, Mafia, Doctor save
Vig, SK, Mafia
Vig, Mafia, Mafia
SK, Mafia, Mafia

or possibly another combination I haven't thought of.

---

12 players alive means 7 to lynch and our deadline is in 26 days, which puts it on the 30th of this month.

---

Anyways, I still like my Empking vote so I'm putting it back.

Vote: Empking

[Vino]

More of this again? I feel like we've been over this ground before. We have more important things to discuss, like the question of which of these two scenarios is the correct one.

KoC was a town D1, was recruited last night, and then killed by mafia/sk/watev in the same night. Cult still has exactly as many players active as they did yesterday, probably 1.

KoC was a cultist D1, and made up the poetry shit, and was given a fake PM by Natirasha. Cult was able to recruit another member last night, but still stands at having as many players active as yesterday (at least 2.)

There is a huge difference in our cult leader hunt if KoC was cult D1. If he was recruited the same night as he died then he will not have any ties to the recruiter. If he was then he will have ties and we can use that to help identify the recruiter.

[Vino]

so, lowell, if deadline were imminent, the only two conceivably reachable deadline lynches were yos2 and gnkoichi, and you were the only person capable of moving your vote to one of these two people, which of them would you lynch?

once you've answered that, be a doll and vote for that person

What the fuck?

I take it to be general agreement that most people think that KoC was recruited N1 and died N1 as well. So we know that obviously the CR has all of the information that town does, so when KoC claimed "fucked up townie" he knew he could safely recruit that person. I think we should be careful in establishing known pro-towns until the CR is dead, because it gives him/her safe people to recruit.

I think it is reasonable to assume that the CR must not be a mason, since that would give him way too many known townies to draw on, which means once again I will not be voting any masons, since getting this CR should be a high priority. It's bad to try to second guess the mod, but this is a reasonable risk to take in my opinion.

Vig, SK, Mafia, Mafia, Doctor save
Vig, SK, Mafia
Vig, Mafia, Mafia
SK, Mafia, Mafia

Does anybody have any thoughts on these? Or perhaps there are other killing roles? Can we try to get some information out of the fact that there were three killings last night?

Also, we have a dead mafia, why is nobody looking for connections between mafia partners? Here's my pairings:

Admiral/EmpKing - Admiral seems to defend EmpKing
Admiral/MafiaSSK - They mostly ignore each other
Admiral/alvinz - They mostly ignore each other

Everybody else seems to me either hated Litradmiral enough to convince me, or seemed to be hated by Litradmiral.

[Vino]

Vino: How do you know that the CR can recruit masons?

I don't see why not. Is there any rule that says he can't? I've never been in a game with a cult before, or masons for that matter.

roflcopter, Koichi rained quite hard down upon Litral at the beginning of the game with that silly bandwagoning deal. Every other post since then has had Litral in it. He then calls on the mod for prods and accusing Litral of lurking, and retains him as his #1 suspect, then is one of the first people to vote Admiral. Seems much too strong to be bussing. Not that I don't think Koichi has been acting fairly anti-town, but I just don't see any kind of pairing with Litradmiral. If anything Koichi might be a Lyncher with a Litral target.

Why do you mention this pairing, above other possible ones?

[Vino]

I am surprised you gave a straight answer.

Yes, you did say that you suspect Koichi and Litral and I don't like Koichi's play either, but I just don't see the two of them as working together. Perhaps he is on another mafia team, or an SK, or the CR, but not Litral's partner.

Then again, you also said this:

gonna go ahead and call it now. the scumteam is found within {strangercoug, knights of cydonia, litral, vino, gnkoichi}

... which from my view is certifiably wrong. SC and KoC flipped town, and I don't see Litral and Koichi as having worked together. Doesn't this mean that you are compelled to vote me as Litral's partner? Or are you no longer of the same opinion that you were back then?

[Vino]

unless its a scum team of only three people i was obviously wrong about the whole team being within those five, but i still think its a pretty good possibility you and koichi are scum together, and on litral's team. your out and out defence of koichi is further hardening my resolve.

Who ever said I am defending Koichi? I've only said I don't think he's Litral's partner, and I gave good reasons for that. That doesn't mean I don't think he's anti-town. I don't like his play all that much and wouldn't flinch to see him lynched, I'm certainly not defending him.

[Vino]

Real men don't pull out.

[Vino]

On a completely unrelated note, I will be absent Saturday - Wednesday this coming week for vacation, and absent Tuesday - Saturday the next week for GDC. I'll try to get on and post during those times but no guarantees.

[Vino]

a town mason has no way of knowing beyond absolutely wild and baseless conjecture whether or not it is possible for one of the masons to be the cult recruiter

16 players to start means the scumgroup was probably 4 players.

A townie has no way of knowing beyond absolutely wild and baseless conjecture how many mafia players there are in this game.

roflcopter, you seem like an intelligent guy, but I am avoiding passing judgment on you because your recklessness makes it hard to pin down your motives. I wish that you would calm down and act more consistently and use your head a little bit, to help everybody else get a solid read on you. If you're town, you'll calm down and help us find scum.

On alvinz: Did anybody else think that his framing of OP and #14 was rather suspicious? Maybe I'm imagining things. I consider these two people to be pro-town, especially #14, so it looks to me like an attempt to smear dirt on the face of some otherwise town players. He does the straw man "A CR would be like X" and then applies it to these two players as if it were fact. I would say that a CR has many options on how to play and this argument is engineered to make two townies look bad and try to provoke a lynch.

That said, OP's #1221 does look rather suspicious, I'm still trying to decide whether the comments and questions therein are contrived. He's been in quite a bit many games to seem so clueless about CR's.

My limited internet continues until Thursday, but is less limited than I previously thought it would be.

[Vino]

Once again with alvinz I find myself in the position where I attack him to provoke a response, but I find his response to be pro-town. Why does it seem that he only acts pro-town when provoked?

In any case, alvinz, this is a game where pretty much anything you do can be interpreted in one of two ways -- one of those ways you won't like. It's nothing personal, I was just seeing a possible interpretation of your actions that could be seen as scum-motivated, to see what you had to say about it and to see if anybody else had any thoughts about it. Since nobody seems to corroborate my observations, I guess I'm seeing things, so I've got no argument now.

The one thing that confuses me is why he'd recruit KoC, assuming he did it last night, but that kind of confuses me no matter who the cult recruiter is.

I think you answered your own question. Reading into night kills has proved disastrous for me in the past so I won't delve too deep, but if the CR has confused everybody with his recruitment choice then I think the only information that we're going to get from his choice is that we're dealing with a very smart CR.

Honcho, your observation of events is keen. I'll do a re-read later and see what I think out about this.

[Vino]

Or maybe we're dealing with an incredibly stupid one. Either way.

[Vino]

I'll be at GDC starting tomorrow and going until Saturday, and this game will be the second to last thing on my mind.

(The last thing will be cranberries. I don't really care so much about cranberries.)

[Vino]

Koichi, are you pegging OP as CR or scum?

[Vino]

I'm back from GDC but now I'm busy getting back up to speed with work stuff. I have a reread of the thread coming up, so I'll get with that picture as soon as I can.

[Vino]

alvinz, your logic is self-contradictory. Tell me if this is wrong:

1. You think me and GnK are scum,
2. You present the argument that scum should be voting on easy bandwagons,
3. You conclude that me and GnK should be voting for Yos, who currently has 4 votes so is closest to bandwagon potential,
4. You state that you don't know why we aren't doing that.

So, we're scum, but we're not scummy because we're not doing what you say scum would do. None of that makes any sense at all.

Now you say OP and GnK are busing each other, and you say Yosarian is scum too, and you're voting for Empking. That's five scum, and we already have one scum corpse, so six total scum. Is that right, you think there are six scum? Which of those do you think are SK/CR/other?

In any case, back to the game in general. I haven't posted recently because I've not had much to say. I've had my vote on Empking and I'm happy with it there, because he seems CRish enough for me. I'd also be willing to explore a Honcho CR. I think we could use an official

vote count please

.

[Vino]

Right.

I think it's a reasonable assumption that if there are multiple scum groups they must have equal numbers. So by your logic, if me, Yosarian, and GnKoichi are all scum together and are for some reason following a strict no-busing policy, then there must be another group of three scum. Would that group be OP + Admiral + someone else? Or is it one large scum group of five people? Or am I wrong again?

[Vino]

I was on the fence about Koichi but this seals it. I wanted a claim from him.

It's not too late Empking, give us a claim before the mod swoops in.

[Vino]

That last post was vague. I wanted a claim from Empking, not Koichi.

[Vino]

I don't see how you can reasonably think that. Admiral's claim gave us enough information to lynch him correctly.

[Vino]

SK mason that was given a town pm by Nat no less. What the hell is the purpose of putting an SK in the masons?

Okay here are the conclusions to draw from N2.

* If the CR was successful last night there are now two cultists.
* There was only one kill whereas there were three last night. Someone did not take a turn, or there was a doc save. This greatly reduces the possibility of multiple mafia groups in my opinion, as I don't see any motivation for a mafia group to pass on a NK, so probably what we have here is SK, vig, mafia.
* Koichi is scummy scummy hammering scum who I can't believe is still walking and breathing.
* We lost two trackers and do not know who they tracked N1 because we

someone

did not let one of them claim. Empking had a pretty solid scum read on PoTS in D2, but this may have been due to tracking or maybe not. SSK said nothing of substance D2.
* If there are three scum alive, (aka the game began with 4) or if the CR was successful last night and we do not lynch him today, then we are in LyLo. The modkill of the two inactive players lost us a day. If two die N3 there are six remain tomorrow, four to lynch, three mafia or three cults. The possible exception is if there are multiple scum teams in which case I don't know how the rules work. If everybody agrees with this assessment we may want to consider a nolynch or a massclaim.

Vote: Head_Honcho

for general quietness and suspicion of CRing. If the CR weren't afoot this vote would be on Koichi. If Honcho clears up it will go to Koichi.

In all honesty I'm not very optimistic about town winning this game, so I'm going through the motions from here on out. I hope we get our act together and lynch some mafia today.

[Vino]

... which is silly because I voted at the same exact point in D2, my very first post I believe.

He's scum, give him a break.

[Vino]

Especially considering the strange set up with fake role PMs and a Mason SK.

This is so much bull it's not even funny because it has been demonstrated as incorrect. On D1 we successfully lynched a mafia RB on the basis of a flaky fake role PM. A anti-town role asked to claim has two options: use the flaky role claim or make one up, and neither option is really any better than the other, really I don't see how the situation is significantly different than a regular game given the moderator posted the vanilla PM in the first post. Since we know the moderator gave fake PMs we don't have to believe any PMs posted, so it really doesn't make it any different from regular games at this point. Claiming would have been an effective way of vetting Empking and not making that incorrect decision last round.

Here's where we stand: In all likeliness there are six people here who want to lynch a Cult Recruiter (if they know what's good for them) and two people here who are cult. Those two people are going to be working together, and if we can at least lynch the recruited cult member then we have a shot at living another day. Otherwise, other events nonwithstanding, tomorrow there will be three culties and six people and the game will be

over

. And don't bother me about "setup sux" unless you can tell me definitively why I'm wrong.

As I've been reading, I see that just about everybody disagrees with just about everybody else, and if this continues we are going to lynch the wrong person again and lose the game, so I'm getting more and more convinced that we should mass claim. We already lost two trackers and we already know all of the masons, so we won't out that many power roles, and it will help us find the CR.

As for who it is, we seem to be under the general agreement that it comes down between Head_Honcho and alvinz, who hasn't posted in a while. If my vote count is correct, they both have 3 votes. That means they are both at L-2, so let's be careful. PoTS also has one vote from Koichi.

Vino, I have come to terms with this two games in a row, you are a townie who is just that bad at this.

I'm not quite sure what I said that made you think this, but I guess I can't complain.

[Vino]

Let's not be so hasty. We need a general consensus that a massclaim is good, and then we need everybody to claim or nobody at all.

[Vino]

There are two possibilities. One is that alvinz is the CR and one is that he's telling the truth. I personally think he's telling the truth. That being the case, roflcopter and Honcho probably aren't the other Cult because they put alvinz to L-2 and L-1. After a review of previous pages I'm lead to believe it's orangepenguin.

I am reminded of a previous post by OP where he seems to go to great lengths to make it seem as if he is not CR, and then when I note that it seems contrived he responds fervently with meta and a weak "I've never played those roles before and therefore I'm not those roles now" argument. That combined with what could be construed as bussing alvinz early today and his eagerness to jump on rofl's bandwagon is enough to lead me to strongly suspect him as the CR.

Unvote, Vote: orangepenguin

I hate to say it, but if we can't establish a CR today, and we don't trust alvinz to die tonight by vig or mafia nk, then we can still lynch alvinz. It's a sure bet to keep the game from ending tomorrow after the night events. If we lynch him then tomorrow assuming mafia doesn't NK the CR there will be this:

mafia (prob mason)
mafia
town/mafia
town (mason)
cult/town
cult recruiter

If the game started with four mafia then we are fucked unless mafia manage to kill a cult tonight. Otherwise if the CR recruits wrong tonight then it's 3 town, 2 mafia, 1 cult, or 2 town, 2 mafia, 2 cult. The other option is to lynch someone else and if we get it wrong hope that alvinz dies by vig or NK. Oddly enough, the mafia may end up NKing alvinz tonight if we don't lynch him because there's no way they can win with 3 culties running around. In that case we may end up in the strange position of having to depend on the mafia to kill a cult. If we can be sure of a CR hit today then alvinz will be a pro-town vote tomorrow, otherwise he will contribute to the cult count and he needs to go. I won't be taking part in any lynch unless I'm satisfied that we have a reasonable assurance that we won't lose tomorrow if we get it wrong.

roflcopter, your logic is retarded. 1468 is a ridiculous straw man argument chock full of loose circumstantial evidence, and my behavior the rest of the game doesn't match up with CR behavior. All you guys bandwagoning on it need to think for yourselves.

alvinz, I honestly wish you would reveal the CR, town will likely lose otherwise. The game is completely screwed up either way, at least we get a shot at winning this way.

[Vino]

That's retarded. alvinz bailed on the cult, he is pro-town now, he's not going to hammer just because I'm not CR. roflcopter, stop tunneling, you're going to lose the game for town.

I can't believe everybody is actually going along with this, even after everything I just said. Did anybody else just hear me say that we'll probably lose the game if we make an incorrect lynch today?

[Vino]

You're wrong and this isn't the first time you're wrong about something.

You can take this as me bailing on the cult. Cults suck.

He has bailed. He is not trying to win with the cult. He is possibly no longer going to even show up in this game.

You're wrong about that, you were wrong about Empking, you're wrong about me and I wish you would shut up and quit screwing up the game.

[Vino]

I'm trying hard to contain my frustration about this game. I am incredulous that so many people would so easily throw the game away. It's not exactly the best setup ever, but it would be a royal shame to be lynched four RL days after this game day started, with no time limit and virtually no discussion on it, because of a bandwagon from somebody who's had a record of being patently wrong. That would piss me off righteously.

In a normal game rofl's behavior would be lynchable on sight. Soliciting votes on weak evidence? What kind of bullshit is this? But it gets excused because it's par for the course here. How is my neck in the noose when I'm the only one who's given any kind of analytical thought to the game in D3 so far? Retarded.

vino votes head honcho for recruiter out of the gate today. ignores alvinz completely.

I gave a damn good reason for going after Honcho out of the gates, and I behaved the exact same way at the beginning of D2. It was a reasonable vote, even you voted him after I did, roflcopter. alvinz went from L-3 to L-1 in the space of about ten minutes, so even if I had wanted to get a vote on him there's no way I could have without actually hammering. You're imposing a motive on me that doesn't exist. Moreover I didn't ignore him completely, I acknowledged him as a prime suspect in the CR chase in this post. I'd have been more than willing to lend my vote if it was needed, but I had it on an equally viable (at the time) contender, whom I'd vocalized suspicion for at multiple times in the past.

Let's not be so hasty. We need a general consensus that a massclaim is good, and then we need everybody to claim or nobody at all.

i posit that he is worried about alvinz making a bad claim.

Two people making a claim at the same time makes no sense and you know it. Imagine what would have happened if Honcho had claimed before alvinz did. It would have been unnecessary and it was a stupid idea. Either everybody should claim or we should vote for one person to claim. The only reason anybody entertains the idea that we should have two people claim is because all of the masons claimed at the beginning of the game, which was equally retarded.

Framing my miscount as intentional is also pretty low. I didn't notice that you unvoted alvinz so I accidentally counted your vote twice, it was an honest mistake.

One thing I have noticed about vino though is that he's coming out of his shell a little bit as the game goes on, being a little more assertive. That fits with CR, I guess.

Suffering from short term memory loss, or do you not remember how vocal I was D1, or that I hammered our D1 lynch? If anything I was more vocal then than I am now.

The whole thing just pisses me off and makes no sense. I really wish we were pursuing more reliable strategies like

logic

or even massclaims.

[Vino]

Also THANK GOD somebody with some sense.

[Vino]

CR has to be roflcopter or a mason. I think it could be lowell.

Care to share your logic?

[Vino]

I see what you mean Honcho, but the problem I'm having is that you can read just about anybody's history and interpret them in general as any role you've thought of them as. We need more than that if we're going to get the CR.

Could you share as to why you think it must be a mason? It sounds like you've done some maths on the setup that brings you to this conclusion. Or are you just working on hunches here?

[Vino]

I haven't done any math, ever. Have you looked at the current list? Basically by process of elimination it's roflcopter or a mason.

So then, from your point of view, it's not you, you don't think it's me, it's not alvinz, therefore it must be either roflcopter or a mason?

[Vino]

The more I see of alvinz's behavior the more I think he is trying to fuck with us. If he were honest about the game he would be straightforward about things, but he's being obtuse, and I'm starting to think it's an intentional ploy to confuse the town and get us to lynch the wrong person THAT BEING ME. The more it goes on the more I think of him as the CR.

Unvote, Vote: alvinz95

He is the only safe lynch today anyways, because if he is not the CR then we've still bought ourselves another day.

[Vino]

If you don't care about the cult then why don't you tell us who the recruiter is?

[Vino]

If you don't care about the cult then why don't you tell us who the recruiter is?

If you turn out to be the CL, that statement will be judged to be, with the benefit of hindsight, the thickest slab of WIFOM in the site's history.

CL? What are you, are you, asian? [/terribad racist stereotype joke]

You people keep saying I'm the CR based on weak circumstantial evidence, but when I defended myself nobody bothered to counter my points, choosing instead to keep yelling "HES THE CR" at the risk of losing the game. Nobody has done any critical analysis or presented anything but D3 play to show why I am allegedly the CR. That's only part of why this whole thing is STUPID.

alvinz is at L-2, I'm pretty sure. We won't lose tonight if we lynch him, he's already claimed cult, and we might have a better chance of winning tomorrow depending on how the night kills go. He's asked for us to lynch him for Chrissake, it's the only sensible thing to do.

[Vino]

I'm pretty sure that was the hammer.

This game is so retarded. I didn't even get asked to claim.

I AM TOWN YOU RETARDS and I don't want to be in this game anymore, so just in case it wasn't the hammer:

Unvote, Vote: Vino

Have fun losing to the cult.

Honcho, I'm sorry for picking this game.

[Vino]

There's this thing called comedy. It's a fairly common joke that asians pronounce r sounds like l. I've lived in Japan for three months and I have a working knowledge of Japanese, I can make fun of them if I want, doesn't mean I'm racist.

Just because the setup is crappy doesn't mean that some people don't want to win anyway. Now, we're almost definitely not, thanks to you.

[Vino]

It's possible to make racist jokes without actually being racist. I'm fed up with this game because of people like you. I voted again because I've been wrong on the vote count before, but if someone had asked me to claim I would have hammered myself for the shits of it. I was actually looking forward to it.

Six players tomorrow. Hopefully the game started with three mafia because otherwise the game will be over tonight. Good luck town.

[Vino]

Are you Japanese or otaku or something? You're taking this way too personally. You've got to chill out.

[Vino]

I know I'm dead but I can't resist saying:

I told you so.

[Vino]

I hate cults, and I want no part of one. Let me put it out there that if I'm recruited, I'll bus the cult recruiter like there's no tomorrow.

Yeah.

This was the worst game of Mafia I've played and that I am likely to play ever.

I'm glad I died when I did, D4 was really just the town deciding whether the cult or the mafia would win the game. Victory for the town was pretty much out of the question.

I would like to see the QT's, can someone post?

[Vino]

Wait a minute. There's still one unaccounted for night kill in N1. There were three kills that night but we only have one mafia group and an SK, what gives?